Got Chaos? Extracting Business Intelligence from Email with Natural Language Processing and Dynamic Graph Analysis
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Got Chaos? Extracting Business Intelligence from Email with Natural Language Processing and Dynamic Graph Analysis

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In this presentation, O'Reilly author and Digital Reasoning CTO Matthew Russell along with Dr. Steve Kramer, founder and chief scientist at Paragon Science, discuss how Digital Reasoning processed the ...

In this presentation, O'Reilly author and Digital Reasoning CTO Matthew Russell along with Dr. Steve Kramer, founder and chief scientist at Paragon Science, discuss how Digital Reasoning processed the Enron corpus with its advanced Natural Language Processing (NLP) technology - effectively transforming it into building blocks that are viable for data science. Then, Paragon Science used dynamic graph analysis inspired from particle physics to tease out insights from the data in order to better understand whether an enterprise fiasco such as the Enron scandal could have been thwarted.

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Got Chaos? Extracting Business Intelligence from Email with Natural Language Processing and Dynamic Graph Analysis Got Chaos? Extracting Business Intelligence from Email with Natural Language Processing and Dynamic Graph Analysis Presentation Transcript

  • Got Chaos? Extracting Business Intelligence from Email with Natural Language Processing and Dynamic Graph Analysis Steve Kramer, Ph.D. President & Chief Scientist Paragon Science, Inc. Copyright © 2013-2014 Paragon Science, Inc. and Digital Reasoning, Inc. All rights reserved. Matthew Russell Chief Technology Officer Digital Reasoning, Inc.
  • Overview •  Matthew Russell •  Intro & Background •  Data Science @ Digital Reasoning •  Making Human Language Viable for Data Science •  Dr. Steve Kramer •  Intro & Background •  Data Science @ Paragon Science •  Dynamic Graph Analysis on the Enron Corpus Copyright © 2013-2014 Paragon Science, Inc. and Digital Reasoning, Inc. All rights reserved. 2
  • “Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.” --Arthur C. Clarke Copyright © 2013-2014 Paragon Science, Inc. and Digital Reasoning, Inc. All rights reserved. 3! 3
  • Hello, My Name Is … Matthew •  Background in Computer Science •  Data Mining & Machine Learning •  CTO @ Digital Reasoning •  Natural Language Processing •  Author @ O’Reilly Media •  Mining the Social Web •  Fitness junkie •  CrossFit, triathlon, yoga •  Twitter, etc. •  @ptwobrussell Copyright © 2013-2014 Paragon Science, Inc. and Digital Reasoning, Inc. All rights reserved. 4
  • •  Flagship Product •  Synthesys •  Makes human language viable for data science •  Customers •  Now: defense/intel, finance •  Soon: healthcare & alternative energy •  Offices •  Nashville, NYC, DC, & London Copyright © 2013-2014 Paragon Science, Inc. and Digital Reasoning, Inc. All rights reserved. 5
  • An “Oracle” for Human Language Data Government Legal Health Financial Verticals Pl a t f o rm ( D a ta O rg a n i z ed & Application-Ready) Relational Database Management System (RDBMS)   Synthesys Knowledge Graph Management System (KGMS) Enables applications on unstructured data Enables applications on structured data Reason Resolve Read Infrastructure Processing Platforms and Data Stores Data Sources External Data Internal Data Copyright © 2013-2014 Paragon Science, Inc. and Digital Reasoning, Inc. All rights reserved. 6
  • Data Alchemy •  Data •  Documents & document fragments •  Information •  Assertions, extractions, etc. •  Knowledge •  Aggregated information •  Wisdom •  “Compressed” knowledge •  Gold Copyright © 2013-2014 Paragon Science, Inc. and Digital Reasoning, Inc. All rights reserved. 7
  • "Knowledge is a process of piling up facts; wisdom lies in their simplification.” --Martin Fischer Copyright © 2013-2014 Paragon Science, Inc. and Digital Reasoning, Inc. All rights reserved. 10! 10
  • Natural Language Building Blocks Copyright © 2013-2014 Paragon Science, Inc. and Digital Reasoning, Inc. All rights reserved. 11
  • Big Data Needs Big Understanding Copyright © 2013-2014 Paragon Science, Inc. and Digital Reasoning, Inc. All rights reserved. 12
  • The End State: A Knowledge Graph Fund   SpotTail     Capital  Advisors   Stan     Druckenmiller   Paul     Tudor  Jones   Fantasy  Football     League   Goldman     Sachs   Voyager  Capital   Partners   Raj  Rajaratnam   Proctor  &     Gamble   P  &  G  Board   David     Loeb   Lunch   Rajat  Gupta   McKinsey     &  Co.   Galleon   Group  LLC   Richard   SchuHe   Gary     Cohn   GS   TransacDons   PorNolio   Manager   Anil  Kumar   Intel  Corp.   Rajiv  Goel   Wharton     School   Galleon     Kris     Tech     Chellam   Fund   Krish     Panu   Leon     Shaulov   Ian     Michael     Horowitz   Cardillo   P&G     TransacDons   1. READ: Forge natural language building blocks & build an information graph 2. RESOLVE: Introduce hierarchy & compress the information graph into knowledge 3. REASON: Exploit the knowledge to solve business problems Copyright © 2013-2014 Paragon Science, Inc. and Digital Reasoning, Inc. All rights reserved. 13
  • “In God we trust. All others must bring data.” --W. Edwards Deming Copyright © 2013-2014 Paragon Science, Inc. and Digital Reasoning, Inc. All rights reserved. 14
  • Overview of Enron •  A Texas-based energy company that grew to a multibillion-dollar company between 1985 and 2001 •  The substance of the Enron scandal involved the use of financial instruments called raptors to effectively hide accounting losses. •  Soon after the scandal was revealed in 2001, Enron filed bankruptcy to the tune of over $60 billion dollars •  The largest bankruptcy in U.S. history (at the time)! Copyright © 2013-2014 Paragon Science, Inc. and Digital Reasoning, Inc. All rights reserved. 15
  • Could It Have Been Prevented? •  Maybe/Probably – Steve will share some insights •  The answers were hiding in plain sight •  Fast-forward till now… •  Any enterprise has significant potential liability lurking in digital forms of human language data •  “Deep” NLP can power applications to help thwart these types of situations and do significant moral good Copyright © 2013-2014 Paragon Science, Inc. and Digital Reasoning, Inc. All rights reserved. 16
  • Now Introducing… Dr. Steve Kramer <Applause /> Copyright © 2013-2014 Paragon Science, Inc. and Digital Reasoning, Inc. All rights reserved. 17
  • Hello, My Name Is … Steve •  Computational Physicist •  Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaos •  Dynamic Graph Analysis •  Data Science Entrepreneur •  Paragon Science, Inc. •  Group Fitness Instructor •  BODYPUMP •  BODYATTACK •  CXWORX •  Food and Wine Aficionado •  Twitter, etc. •  @ParagonSci_Inc •  @dr_steve_kramer Copyright © 2013-2014 Paragon Science, Inc. and Digital Reasoning, Inc. All rights reserved. 18
  • Extracting Critical Business Intelligence from Data Streams •  Digital Reasoning’s Synthesys platform for natural language processing •  Paragon Science’s dynamic anomaly detection software •  Business goals: •  Help seize opportunities •  Mitigate risks •  Case study: Enron email data set •  Identify key individuals by position in network •  Highlight unusual changes in sentiments •  Drill down to relevant source messages Copyright © 2013-2014 Paragon Science, Inc. and Digital Reasoning, Inc. All rights reserved. 19
  • Example: Enhanced Enron Email Data Set from Digital Reasoning •  Graphml representation for each email message •  343,134 email messages •  28,905 email addresses •  Natural language processing artifacts •  Messages •  Sentences •  Phrases •  Tokens •  Co-references •  Co-reference chains Copyright © 2013-2014 Paragon Science, Inc. and DigitalParagon Science, Inc. reserved. Reasoning, Inc. All rights 20 20
  • Paragon Science Enron Network Analysis Ingest Digital Reasoning Data Construct Graph for Each Day Find Key Individuals with K-Core Decomposition Perform Sentiment Analysis on Messages Apply Dynamic Network Analysis Identify Anomalous Clusters and Time Periods Relate Anomalies to Source Data Copyright © 2013-2014 Paragon Science, Inc. and DigitalParagon Science, Inc. reserved. Reasoning, Inc. All rights 21 21
  • K-Core Decomposition of the Enron Network The users at the center are bestpositioned to spread information and influence the network. J.I. Alvarez-Hamelin, Alain Barrat, Alessandro Vespignani, Luca Dall'Asta, and Mariano Beiró http://lanet-vi.fi.uba.ar/ Copyright © 2013-2014 Paragon Science, Inc. and DigitalParagon Science, Inc. reserved. Reasoning, Inc. All rights 22 22
  • K-Core Decomposition: Central Core Copyright © 2013-2014 Paragon Science, Inc. and DigitalParagon Science, Inc. reserved. Reasoning, Inc. All rights 23 23
  • Focus Users for Sentiment Analysis a..howard@enron.com a..shankman@enron.com chris.germany@enron.com d..steffes@enron.com darron.giron@enron.com debra.perlingiere@enron.com elizabeth.sager@enron.com enron.announcements@enron.com gerald.nemec@enron.com jeff.dasovich@enron.com jeff.skilling@enron.com jeffrey.hodge@enron.com jeffrey.shankman@enron.com john.arnold@enron.com kam.keiser@enron.com kate.symes@enron.com kay.mann@enron.com Copyright © 2013-2014 Paragon Science, Inc. and DigitalParagon Science, Inc. reserved. Reasoning, Inc. All rights 24 kimberly.watson@enron.com leslie.hansen@enron.com leslie.lawner@enron.com louise.kitchen@enron.com m..love@enron.com mark.haedicke@enron.com mark.taylor@enron.com michelle.cash@enron.com nmann@erac.com richard.sanders@enron.com richard.shapiro@enron.com rod.haysleH@enron.com sally.beck@enron.com sara.shackleton@enron.com steven.kean@enron.com susan.scoH@enron.com tana.jones@enron.com tracy.geaccone@enron.com vince.kaminski@enron.com 24
  • Enron Data Enhanced by NLP and Sentiment Analysis •  For the central individuals in the Enron network, we construct dynamic networks using the phrases extracted from the emails by Digital Reasoning. •  Use the LIWC (Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count) tool to classify the sentiment scores of the phrases. •  Prof. James Pennebaker from UT Austin (http:// www.liwc.net/) •  Sample categories •  Positive emotion •  Negative emotion •  Anger •  Anxiety Copyright © 2013-2014 Paragon Science, Inc. and DigitalParagon Science, Inc. reserved. Reasoning, Inc. All rights 25 25
  • High-level Sentiment Analysis Results Copyright © 2013-2014 Paragon Science, Inc. and DigitalParagon Science, Inc. reserved. Reasoning, Inc. All rights 26 26
  • Positive Emotion Weight Totals Peak on Feb. 28, 2001 for steven.kean@enron.com Copyright © 2013-2014 Paragon Science, Inc. and DigitalParagon Science, Inc. reserved. Reasoning, Inc. All rights 27 27
  • Anxiety Weight Totals Peak on Feb. 28, 2001 for steven.kean@enron.com Copyright © 2013-2014 Paragon Science, Inc. and DigitalParagon Science, Inc. reserved. Reasoning, Inc. All rights 28 28
  • Related Message from Feb. 28, 2001 Message-ID: <8261377.1075848143751.JavaMail.evans@thyme>Date: Wed, 28 Feb 2001 06:19:00 -0800 (PST)From: steven.kean@enron.com To: bernadette.hawkins@enron.com Subject: Energy Issues … Forwarded by Steven J Kean/NA/Enron on 02/28/2001 02:19 PM ----To: Ann M Schmidt/Corp/Enron@ENRON, Bryan Seyfried/LON/ECT@ECT, dcasse@whwg.com, Riverside Press 2/23: "Power line plan has new foes"Contra Costa Times, 2/23: "GOP in a fix over power crisis"Sac Bee, Fri 2/23: "Davis says State has tentative deal for Edison grid"SF Chron 2/23: "Utilities Search for Long-Term Fix During Breather... GOP in a fix over power crisis Leaders seek solutions that won't undercut past support for deregulation By Daniel Borenstein TIMES POLITICAL EDITOR California Republican Party leaders are trying desperately to politicize the state's electricity crisis by blaming Gray Davis, but it seems that the harder they try the more popular the Democratic governor becomes. The latest GOP push will come today when party leaders, meeting in Sacramento for the start of their three-day state convention, hold a hastily organized workshop on energy. "We should be explaining to California that Gray Davis was asleep at the switch last year," said one of the scheduled speakers, Republican strategist Dan Schnur. "But that message can only work if it's coupled with a proposal for an alternative solution."   Copyright © 2013-2014 Paragon Science, Inc. and DigitalParagon Science, Inc. reserved. Reasoning, Inc. All rights 29 29
  • Apply Paragon Science Dynamic Anomaly Detection •  Simple measures such as counts can miss important features •  Use dynamic network analysis to study the changes over time in: •  Who communicates with whom •  The distribution of the emotion-laden phrases in the sent emails •  Extract business intelligence Copyright © 2013-2014 Paragon Science, Inc. and DigitalParagon Science, Inc. reserved. Reasoning, Inc. All rights 30 30
  • Dynamic Cluster Analysis •  Which entities behave or evolve differently than others in the data set? •  Which entities have shifted their behavior unexpectedly? Copyright © 2013-2014 Paragon Science, Inc. and DigitalParagon Science, Inc. reserved. Reasoning, Inc. All rights 31 31
  • Dynamic Anomaly Detection Overview •  A general approach that incorporates nonlinear time series analysis methods •  Complexity measures •  Finite-time Lyapunov exponents (FTLEs) •  Input data •  Communications or transactional data streams •  General time-dependent data sets •  Key questions •  Which entities behave or evolve differently than others in the data set? •  Which entities have shifted their behavior unexpectedly? Copyright © 2013-2014 Paragon Science, Inc. and DigitalParagon Science, Inc. reserved. Reasoning, Inc. All rights 32 32
  • Finite-Time Lyapunov Exponents (FTLEs) •  General dynamical system •  Flow map •  Advects points in the state space •  Describes the time evolution of the system Copyright © 2013-2014 Paragon Science, Inc. and DigitalParagon Science, Inc. reserved. Reasoning, Inc. All rights 33 33
  • Finite-Time Lyapunov Exponents (FTLEs) •  FTLEs characterize the amount of stretching or contraction about a point x0 during a time interval T •  Stability •  Predictability •  Definition Copyright © 2013-2014 Paragon Science, Inc. and DigitalParagon Science, Inc. reserved. Reasoning, Inc. All rights 34 34
  • Derived Jacobian Vectors •  Similarly, characteristic vectors derived from the flow map’s Jacobian can describe the generalized directions of the local stretching or contraction. •  Possible derivation approaches: •  Weight-based column sampling •  Singular value decomposition (SVD) •  Principal component analysis (PCA) Copyright © 2013-2014 Paragon Science, Inc. and DigitalParagon Science, Inc. reserved. Reasoning, Inc. All rights 35 35
  • Paragon Dynamic Anomaly Detection Representation of Data at t=ti Yes Clustering / Segmentation Cluster Resolution Feature Vector Encoding Outlier Detection at t=ti More Time Intervals? No Nonlinear Time Series Analysis FTLEs, Dynamic Thresholds, etc. Dynamic Anomaly Detection Copyright © 2013-2014 Paragon Science, Inc. and DigitalParagon Science, Inc. reserved. Reasoning, Inc. All rights 36 Pattern Classification Outlier Detection Domain-Specific Filtering Threat Signatures, Risk Profiles, etc. 36
  • Summary of Top 100 Anxiety Anomalies Sender Peak  End  Date Max  Change   Metric 2001-­‐05-­‐04 3.018 #  Anomalies vince.kaminski@enron.com Peak  Start   Date 2000-­‐03-­‐17 mark.taylor@enron.com 1999-­‐12-­‐24 2001-­‐06-­‐08 2.356 34 kay.mann@enron.com 2000-­‐09-­‐29 2001-­‐12-­‐14 2.164 2 sara.shackleton@enron.com 2001-­‐05-­‐18 2001-­‐11-­‐16 1.893 6 gerald.nemec@enron.com 2000-­‐07-­‐07 2001-­‐08-­‐10 1.862 5 john.arnold@enron.com 2001-­‐06-­‐15 2001-­‐11-­‐16 1.789 5 48 Dr. Vince Kaminski Managing Director for Research at Enron Copyright © 2013-2014 Paragon Science, Inc. and DigitalParagon Science, Inc. reserved. Reasoning, Inc. All rights 37 37
  • Anomaly Detection Results for Anxiety Phrases Anomalous period for vince.kaminski@enron.com during August 2000 Copyright © 2013-2014 Paragon Science, Inc. and DigitalParagon Science, Inc. reserved. Reasoning, Inc. All rights 38 38
  • Vince Kaminski’s Anxiety Phrase Network in August 2000 Copyright © 2013-2014 Paragon Science, Inc. and DigitalParagon Science, Inc. reserved. Reasoning, Inc. All rights 39 39
  • Related Sentences Ranked by Anxiety Weight Sentence Message  Date Anxiety  Score the  framework  with  modern  credit  risk  measurement  tools  leads  to  a  liquidity  risk  VAR  measure 2000-­‐08-­‐08  02:34:00 0.9 This  event  has  rapidly  establishing  itself  as  the  risk  management  industry  ,s  most  important  meeDng  point 2000-­‐08-­‐17  04:22:00 0.7 This  event  has  rapidly  establishing  itself  as  the  risk  management  industry's  most  important  meeDng  point 2000-­‐08-­‐17  07:01:00 0.7 system  providers  this  is  THE  financial  risk  management  event  of  the  year system  providers  this  is  THE  financial  risk  management  event  of  the  year bank  liquidity  risk  can  be  viewed  as  a  variaDon  of  credit  risk  analysis 2000-­‐08-­‐17  04:22:00 0.6 2000-­‐08-­‐17  07:01:00 0.6 2000-­‐08-­‐08  02:34:00 0.6 modeling,  validaDon,  EVT)  Advanced  Asset  &  Liability  Management,  Corporate/Energy  Risk  Management 2000-­‐08-­‐17  04:22:00 0.5 the  New  Products  Designed  to  Stabilise  VolaDlity  Energy  Credit  Risk  Management  GARP 2000-­‐08-­‐17  04:22:00 0.5 this  ConvenDon  will  consider  include  Market  Risk  (stress  tesDng,  liquidity,  jump  diffusion 2000-­‐08-­‐17  04:22:00 0.5 validaDon,  EVT)  Advanced  Asset  &  Liability  Management,  Corporate/Energy  Risk  Management  and  the   Insurance  &  Capital  Markets VolaDlity  Energy  Credit  Risk  Management  GARP  is  a  not-­‐for-­‐profit,  independent  organisaDon  of  risk   management  pracDDoner modeling,  validaDon,  EVT)  Advanced  Asset  &  Liability  Management,  Corporate/Energy  Risk  Management 2000-­‐08-­‐17  04:22:00 0.5 2000-­‐08-­‐17  04:22:00 0.5 2000-­‐08-­‐17  07:01:00 0.5 the  New  Products  Designed  to  Stabilise  VolaDlity  Energy  Credit  Risk  Management  GARP 2000-­‐08-­‐17  07:01:00 0.5 this  ConvenDon  will  consider  include  Market  Risk  (stress  tesDng,  liquidity,  jump  diffusion 2000-­‐08-­‐17  07:01:00 0.5 validaDon,  EVT)  Advanced  Asset  &  Liability  Management,  Corporate/Energy  Risk  Management  and  the   Insurance  &  Capital  Markets VolaDlity  Energy  Credit  Risk  Management  GARP  is  a  not-­‐for-­‐profit,  independent  organisaDon  of  risk   management  pracDDoner 2000-­‐08-­‐17  07:01:00 0.5 2000-­‐08-­‐17  07:01:00 0.5 Copyright © 2013-2014 Paragon Science, Inc. and DigitalParagon Science, Inc. reserved. Reasoning, Inc. All rights 40 40
  • Related Sentences Ranked by Anxiety Weight Sentence any  quesDons  please  do  not  hesitate  to  contact  me INVITATION  TO  SPEAK  GARP  2001  The  2nd  Annual  Risk  Management  ConvenDon  13th  &  14th   February,  2001  )  MarrioH  World   Three  simultaneous  streams  address  tradiDonal  pricing  and  risk  management  techniques any  quesDons,  please  do  not  hesitate  to  call  me  at  ext your  risk  factor  will  be  reduced  by  a  factor  equal  the  sqrt(5 I  have  referred  him  to  the  "Managing  Energy  Price  Risk"  book any  quesDons  please  do  not  hesitate  to  contact  me Three  simultaneous  streams  address  tradiDonal  pricing  and  risk  management  techniques conflicts  of  schedule,  please  do  not  hesitate  to  contact  me modelling  approaches  to  credit  risk. market  risks,  has  received  liHle  aHenDon  in  professional  or  academic  journals the  Global  AssociaDon  of  Risk  Professionals,  I  have  great  pleasure you  to  speak  at  our  2nd  Annual  Risk  Management  ConvenDon  )  GARP  2001 we  lack  desperately  technical  talent we  lack  desperately  technical  talent Energy  Risk  -­‐  Tackling  Price  VolaDlity,  AdapDng  VaR,  Scenario  Modelling  and  Regulatory   Requirements  Vince  Kaminski GARP  2000  reflected  the  key  concerns  of  risk  management  experts INVITATION  TO  SPEAK  GARP  2001  The  2nd  Annual  Risk  Management  ConvenDon  13(superscript the  Global  AssociaDon  of  Risk  Professionals,  I  have  great  pleasure you  to  speak  at  our  2(superscript:  nd)  Annual  Risk  Management  ConvenDon approaches  for  measuring  these  risks  for  EES  deals EES  deals  given  the  uncertainDes  in  energy  consumpDon we  lack  desperately  technical  talent a  framework  allowing  to  measure  a  bank's  structural  liquidity  risk I  taking  over  responsibility  for  semng-­‐up  EES  Europe's  Risk  Management  acDvity Copyright © 2013-2014 Paragon Science, Inc. and DigitalParagon Science, Inc. reserved. Reasoning, Inc. All rights 41 Message  Date Anxiety  Score 2000-­‐08-­‐17  04:22:00 0.4 2000-­‐08-­‐17  04:22:00 0.4 2000-­‐08-­‐17  04:22:00 2000-­‐08-­‐07  01:27:00 2000-­‐07-­‐28  10:05:00 2000-­‐08-­‐08  02:29:00 2000-­‐08-­‐17  07:01:00 2000-­‐08-­‐17  07:01:00 2000-­‐07-­‐31  08:46:00 2000-­‐08-­‐02  01:11:00 2000-­‐08-­‐08  02:34:00 2000-­‐08-­‐17  04:22:00 2000-­‐08-­‐17  04:22:00 2000-­‐08-­‐07  04:13:00 2000-­‐08-­‐08  02:39:00 2000-­‐08-­‐17  07:01:00 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 2000-­‐08-­‐17  07:01:00 2000-­‐08-­‐17  07:01:00 2000-­‐08-­‐17  07:01:00 2000-­‐08-­‐17  07:01:00 2000-­‐07-­‐26  02:08:00 2000-­‐07-­‐26  02:08:00 2000-­‐08-­‐11  00:42:00 2000-­‐08-­‐08  02:34:00 2000-­‐08-­‐03  08:51:00 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 41
  • Vince Kaminski’s Anxiety Sentences Network in August 2000 Copyright © 2013-2014 Paragon Science, Inc. and DigitalParagon Science, Inc. reserved. Reasoning, Inc. All rights 42 42
  • Vince Kaminski’s Anxiety Sentences Network (Detail) Copyright © 2013-2014 Paragon Science, Inc. and DigitalParagon Science, Inc. reserved. Reasoning, Inc. All rights 43 43
  • Vince Kaminski’s Anxiety Sentences Network: Gephi Highlights Copyright © 2013-2014 Paragon Science, Inc. and DigitalParagon Science, Inc. reserved. Reasoning, Inc. All rights 44 44
  • Related Messages Ranked by Anxiety Weight Sender                               vince.kaminski@enron.com Source  File ./part-­‐m-­‐00042.base64.stemmed/2369.txt   Anxiety  Weight 1 vince.kaminski@enron.com ./part-­‐m-­‐00038.base64.stemmed/8080.txt   1 vince.kaminski@enron.com ./part-­‐m-­‐00040.base64.stemmed/1643.txt   0.8333 vince.kaminski@enron.com ./part-­‐m-­‐00030.base64.stemmed/2628.txt   0.5 vince.kaminski@enron.com ./part-­‐m-­‐00030.base64.stemmed/3403.txt   0.5 vince.kaminski@enron.com ./part-­‐m-­‐00032.base64.stemmed/7385.txt   0.5 vince.kaminski@enron.com ./part-­‐m-­‐00035.base64.stemmed/763.txt   0.5 vince.kaminski@enron.com ./part-­‐m-­‐00038.base64.stemmed/3677.txt   0.5 vince.kaminski@enron.com ./part-­‐m-­‐00038.base64.stemmed/7057.txt   0.5 vince.kaminski@enron.com ./part-­‐m-­‐00042.base64.stemmed/4641.txt   0.5 vince.kaminski@enron.com ./part-­‐m-­‐00032.base64.stemmed/609.txt   0.3333 vince.kaminski@enron.com ./part-­‐m-­‐00041.base64.stemmed/7337.txt   0.3333 Copyright © 2013-2014 Paragon Science, Inc. and DigitalParagon Science, Inc. reserved. Reasoning, Inc. All rights 45 45
  • Top-Ranked Anxiety Message from Aug. 17, 2000 Message-­‐ID:  <2250375.1075856554294.JavaMail.evans@thyme>   Date:  Thu,  17  Aug  2000  08:55:00  -­‐0700  (PDT)   From:  vince.kaminski@enron.com   To:  vkaminski@aol.com   Subject:  Re:  Cairn  Gas  Purchase  Bid     Douglas  S  Parsons@ENRON_DEVELOPMENT   08/15/2000  09:30  AM   Source File To:  Doug  Leach/HOU/ECT@ECT   ./part-m-00042.base64.stemmed/2369.txt cc:  Marc  De  La  Roche/HOU/ECT@ECT     Subject:  Re:  Cairn  Gas  Purchase  Bid         I  can  appreciate  and  share  your  objec`ve.    Earlier  today  I  sent  a  separate     note  to  Vince  forwarding  your  concerns  and  asking  again  for  his  assistance.       …     To:  Douglas  S  Parsons/ENRON_DEVELOPMENT@ENRON_DEVELOPMENT   Subject:  Re:  Cairn  Gas  Purchase  Bid         I  gave  you  several  clear  alterna`ves  such  as  contac`ng  Vince's  structuring     group,  Michael  Popkin's  Southern  Cone  structuring  group  and  a  long  discussion     regarding  the  pricing  and  suggested  "collar."  I  also  asked  if  you  had  spoken     to  your  customer  about  what  they  were  willing  to  pay,  but  that  was  a  non     starter.  Trust  me,  I  have  seen  almost  every  bad  deal  Enron  has  entered  into     or  afempted  to  enter  into  and  I  am  trying  to  get  Metgas  to  objec`vely     relook  at  their  offer  to  Cairn  become  it  becomes  another  bad  deal.           Copyright © 2013-2014 Paragon Science, Inc. and DigitalParagon Science, Inc. reserved. Reasoning, Inc. All rights 46   Anxiety Weight 1 46
  • Details on Dr. Vince Kaminski http://www.nytimes.com/2006/01/29/business/businessspecial3/29profiles.html Copyright © 2013-2014 Paragon Science, Inc. and DigitalParagon Science, Inc. reserved. Reasoning, Inc. All rights 47 47
  • Summary of Top 100 Anger Anomalies Sender Peak  Start  Date Peak  End  Date Max  Change   Metric #  Anomalies kay.mann@enron.com 2000-­‐08-­‐25 2002-­‐01-­‐04 3.39 47 mark.taylor@enron.com 1999-­‐12-­‐31 2001-­‐06-­‐08 2.97 36 chris.germany@enron.com 2000-­‐03-­‐17 2002-­‐01-­‐11 2.51 11 john.arnold@enron.com 2001-­‐06-­‐15 2001-­‐08-­‐31 2.37 3 gerald.nemec@enron.com 2001-­‐07-­‐06 2001-­‐09-­‐21 2.03 3 Kay Mann Assistant General Counsel Mark Taylor VP & Assistant General Counsel Copyright © 2013-2014 Paragon Science, Inc. and DigitalParagon Science, Inc. reserved. Reasoning, Inc. All rights 48 48
  • Anomaly Detection Results for Anger Phrases Anomalous period for kay.mann@enron.com starting in September 2000 Copyright © 2013-2014 Paragon Science, Inc. and DigitalParagon Science, Inc. reserved. Reasoning, Inc. All rights 49 49
  • Kay Mann’s Anger Phrase Network (Sept.-Nov. 2000) Copyright © 2013-2014 Paragon Science, Inc. and DigitalParagon Science, Inc. reserved. Reasoning, Inc. All rights 50 50
  • Kay Mann’s Key Anger Sentences Sentence we  have  a  fighDng  chance a  criDcal  point  and  needs  to  understand  the  Nigeria  tax  implicaDons  for  the  venture Message  Date 2000-­‐10-­‐21  06:27:00 2000-­‐09-­‐01  05:05:00 Anger  Score 0.4 0.3 the  commercial  team  is  now  at  a  criDcal  point he  had  a  heart  aHack 5  really  bothers  her The  Midwest  is  dominated  by  verDcally  integrated  Transmission  Providers  ("TPs 2000-­‐09-­‐01  05:05:00 2000-­‐10-­‐10  02:26:00 2000-­‐09-­‐18  07:36:00 2000-­‐11-­‐10  08:56:00 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 the  Aquarium  closed  -­‐  killed  by  bike  lanes Assignment  language  -­‐  new  language  being  tortured  within  the  Enron  ranks,  to  GE 2000-­‐09-­‐14  02:54:00 2000-­‐11-­‐28  05:20:00 0.3 0.3 my  gas  won't  be  cut  off  this  COLD  November such  case,  you  should  destroy  this  message you  tonight  to  trick  or  treat michael  cut  is  toe,  I the  criDcal  juncture,  we  should  enlist  external  support 2000-­‐11-­‐22  02:55:00 2000-­‐09-­‐01  05:05:00 2000-­‐10-­‐30  07:45:00 2000-­‐10-­‐16  06:46:00 2000-­‐09-­‐15  05:38:00 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Enron  should  protest  or  intervene Calif.,  who  represents  San  Diego State  Mkt  Structure  Blamed  For  Crisis  The  hearing the  staff  probe,  appeared  to  place  much  of  the  blame I  will  be  leaving  around  2:00  for  suburban  trick  or  treaDng Enron  should  protest  or  intervene it  screwed  up  the  parking our  criDcal  final  zoning  vote  is  next  Thursday,  I She's  not  a  dumb  dog it  just  hasn't  done  the  trick FP&L  revealed  violaDons 2000-­‐11-­‐09  01:06:00 2000-­‐09-­‐12  02:13:00 2000-­‐09-­‐12  02:13:00 2000-­‐09-­‐12  02:13:00 2000-­‐11-­‐09  01:45:00 2000-­‐11-­‐06  07:34:00 2000-­‐09-­‐14  06:21:00 2000-­‐11-­‐01  06:17:00 2000-­‐10-­‐20  05:32:00 2000-­‐10-­‐27  01:02:00 2000-­‐11-­‐10  08:56:00 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Copyright © 2013-2014 Paragon Science, Inc. and DigitalParagon Science, Inc. reserved. Reasoning, Inc. All rights 51 51
  • Related Top-Ranked Anger Message #1 Date:  Sat,  21  Oct  2000  06:27:00  -­‐0700  (PDT)   From:  kay.mann@enron.com   To:  barbara.gray@enron.com,  jeffrey.hodge@enron.com   Subject:  Re:  Power  Plant  Development  Powerpoint  PresentaDon     I  don't  know  if  you  got  this,  so  here  'Ds.    I  was  out  of  town  and  missed  the     presentaDon,  although  I've  worked  with  Herman,  Roger  and  David  on  these     issues.    I'm  sure  they  would  be  glad  to  give  the  presentaDon  again  for     others  with  a  need  to  understand  the  complexiDes  of  off  balance  sheet     treatment  of  power  plants.     Kay   …   To:  Suzanne  Adams/HOU/ECT@ECT   cc:  Karen  E  Jones/HOU/ECT@ECT,  Bob  Carter/HOU/ECT@ECT,  Barton     Clark/HOU/ECT@ECT,  Dale  Rasmussen/HOU/ECT@ECT,  Ed  B  Hearn  III/HOU/ECT@ECT,     maH.maxwell@enron.com,  kay.mann@enron.com,  Stuart  Zisman/HOU/ECT@ECT,  Peggy     Banczak/HOU/ECT@ECT,  David  Leboe/HOU/ECT@ECT     Subject:  Re:  Power  Plant  Development  Powerpoint  PresentaDon         Could  you  check  with  David  and  see  if  he  could  fax  copies  of  the  PowerPoint     plates  to  me  in  Portland  so  we  have  a  fighDng  chance  of  following  along  by     tying  in  by  phone?        If  that  is  possible,  try  to  send  them  by  Tuesday.  Thank     you  very  much.    Al  Larsen                     Copyright © 2013-2014 Paragon Science, Inc. and DigitalParagon Science, Inc. reserved. Reasoning, Inc. All rights 52   52
  • Related Top-Ranked Anger Message #2 Date:  Fri,  1  Sep  2000  05:05:00  -­‐0700  (PDT)   From:  kay.mann@enron.com   To:  kathleen.carnahan@enron.com   Subject:  Nigeria  Tax  Issues     Seyi,     James  MacCallon  has  now  ler  for  Mexico.    I  am  just  returning  from  India  and   must  step  in  where  he  ler  off.    I  see  James  has  sent  a  few  emails  and  faxes     to   you  but  I  can  find  no  reply  from  AA  although  there  is  a  14-­‐July  email  from  you   indicaDng  a  reply  would  be  sent  by  16-­‐July.      Have  you  sent  a  reply  and  I     have   missed  it?     Given  that  the  commercial  team  is  now  at  a  criDcal  point  and  needs  to   understand  the  Nigeria  tax  implicaDons  for  the  venture  and  bid,  perhaps  we   should  short-­‐cut  this  Q&A  process  and  have  a  conference  call.    I  would  suggest   early  AM  Tuesday  20th,  what  works  for  you?     Copyright © 2013-2014 Paragon Science, Inc. and DigitalParagon Science, Inc. reserved. Reasoning, Inc. All rights 53 53
  • Related Top-Ranked Anger Message #8 From:  kay.mann@enron.com   To:  Peter  J  Thompson  <peterthompson@akllp.com>   Subject:  RE:  Weekly  GE  Conference  Call   …   -­‐-­‐-­‐-­‐-­‐Original  Message-­‐-­‐-­‐-­‐-­‐   From:  Kay.Mann@enron.com  [mailto:Kay.Mann@enron.com]   Sent:  Monday,  November  27,  2000  3:14  PM   To:  michael.barnas@ps.ge.com;  stephen.swir@ps.ge.com;   lee.johnson@ss.ps.ge.com;  kent.shoemaker@ae.ge.com;   Lisa.Bills@enron.com;  Roseann.Engeldorf@enron.com;   Sheila.Tweed@enron.com;  ScoH.Dieball@enron.com;  Ben.Jacoby@enron.com   Cc:  Suzanne.Adams@enron.com   Subject:  Weekly  GE  Conference  Call     Dear  Turbine  Torture  Club  Members:     ..   Assignment  language  -­‐  new  language  being  tortured  within  the  Enron   ranks,   to  GE  soon.   Limit  of  liability,  indemnity,  etc.  -­‐  Enron  owes  GE  a  posiDon  on  this.   Copyright © 2013-2014 Paragon Science, Inc. and DigitalParagon Science, Inc. reserved. Reasoning, Inc. All rights 54 54
  • Possible Next Steps •  Sentiment analysis using n-grams •  Influence calculations: Determine which users were most effective at spreading the various emotions •  Topic detection: Perform community detection on the combined user/phrase networks to determine groups of users and set of related terms •  URL phrase analysis: Analyze the dynamics of URL sharing in the network as an independent indicator of topics and sentiment Copyright © 2013-2014 Paragon Science, Inc. and DigitalParagon Science, Inc. reserved. Reasoning, Inc. All rights 55 55
  • What Are the Payoffs? •  Quickly identify key influencers and trends in online networks with NLP, sentiment analysis, and graph analytics •  Provide early warning of viral emails, videos, anomalous web events, or unusual network traffic •  Enable enhanced business intelligence and proactive corporate compliance without having to specify normal vs. abnormal behavior in advance Copyright ©Science, Inc. Paragon 2013-2014 Paragon Science, Inc. and Digital Reasoning, Inc. All rights reserved. 56 56