Contact:                                            GBN Secretary                                            c/o Informati...
Content                             1. Introduction                             2. Global Megatrends                      ...
Introduction: What are Megatrends?                              Megatrends shape future markets                          ...
Introduction: Megatrends of the future Consulting (4)     Business (2)                                     Consulting     ...
Content                             1. Introduction                             2. Global Megatrends                      ...
Megatrend 1: Globalisation                              Driving forces behind globalisation:                             ...
Megatrend 1: Globalisation                                                                               2050 Shift to Asi...
Megatrend 2: Demography                                         Global Population: 1950 – 2050 (in Mio.)  Global populati...
Megatrend 2: DemographyStrong regional differences:Shrinking Society in the West and High Birth Rates in Developing Countr...
Megatrend 2: Demography Increase and Ageing of World Population                                             Share of the P...
Megatrend 3: Environment Changes in energy demand and energy mix 2000 - 2050                             2000       2010  ...
Megatrend 3: Environment                              Rising CO2 Emissions and Temperatures                             ...
Megatrend 4: Health                              Worldwide the level of medical care increases                           ...
Megatrend 5: Technology NBIC-Paradigm:  convergence of technologies  and research fields (nano-  und biotechnology,  info...
Content                             1. Introduction                             2. Global Megatrends                      ...
Implications for Organisations   Organizations must consider megatrends within in the long-term strategic planning.       ...
Contact:                                            GBN Secretary                                            c/o Informati...
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"Megatrends for the Future" by Oliver Riebartsch

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Presentaion on Megatrends for the Future by Oilver Riebartsch during the 6th International Benchmarking Conference organized by Dubai Quality Group from 6-7 March 2012 at Al Bustan Rotana Dubai

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"Megatrends for the Future" by Oliver Riebartsch

  1. 1. Contact: GBN Secretary c/o Information Center Benchmarking Oliver Riebartsch6th International Benchmarking Conference Fraunhofer IPK6-7th March 2012, Dubai Pascalstraße 8-9 10587 Berlin Germany Fon+ 49 (0) 30 - 390 06 262 Fax + 49 (0) 30 - 393 25 03 Mail: oliver.riebartsch@ipk.fhg.de www.globalbenchmarking.orgGlobal MegatrendsOliver RiebartschFraunhofer IPK (Berlin, Germany) Latest GBN Publication
  2. 2. Content 1. Introduction 2. Global Megatrends 3. Implications for Organisationswww.globalbenchmarking.org
  3. 3. Introduction: What are Megatrends?  Megatrends shape future markets  Three characteristics in which megatrends differ from other trends: 1. Time Horizon: Megatrends can be observed over decades. They can be projected at least 15 years into the future. 2. Reach: Megatrends impact comprehensively on all regions and societal subsystems, whether in politics, society, or economy. 3. Intensity of impact: Megatrends impact powerfully and extensively on all actors, whether it is governments, individuals and their consumption patterns, or corporations and their strategies.  Megatrends are long-term processes of trans- formation with a broad scope and a dramatic impact!www.globalbenchmarking.org
  4. 4. Introduction: Megatrends of the future Consulting (4) Business (2) Consulting Business Research Research (3) Publishers  Fraunhofer Society (2010)  Ernst and Young (2009)  Credit Susisse (2009)  Horx (Future Institute) (2009)  Z_Punkt Foresight (2009)  Roland Berger (2009)  Allianz Dresdner Economic Research (2008)  Gundlach Consulting (2008) Which Megatrends have the biggest influence on  Steria Mummert (2007) global development in the upcoming 20-40 years?www.globalbenchmarking.org
  5. 5. Content 1. Introduction 2. Global Megatrends  Globalisation  Demography  Environment  Health  Technology 3. Implications for Organisationswww.globalbenchmarking.org
  6. 6. Megatrend 1: Globalisation  Driving forces behind globalisation:  Liberalisation of global trade and financial markets  Decreasing costs for communication and transportation (due to technical innovations)  The BRIC states (Brazil, Russia, India & China) are still the major players concerning global growth  Global spread of value creation: network economy, (utilization of local economies), increasing mobility and flow of goodswww.globalbenchmarking.org
  7. 7. Megatrend 1: Globalisation 2050 Shift to Asia: Shares in global economic output 2007 2007 Other 2050 Europe Other 10% 15% 20% Europe 33% India India 17% 2% China 6% USA 26% Japan 10% China Japan USA 28% 29% 4% Source: Asian Development Outlook, Hess (2008)www.globalbenchmarking.org
  8. 8. Megatrend 2: Demography Global Population: 1950 – 2050 (in Mio.)  Global population is increasing dramatically  up to 9 billion people in 2050www.globalbenchmarking.org
  9. 9. Megatrend 2: DemographyStrong regional differences:Shrinking Society in the West and High Birth Rates in Developing Countries  95% of the population Growth in Mio. 2005-2015 growth until 2050 in developing and emerging countries  In contrast, the population in industrialized and some developed countries will decrease  As a consequence and because of shortage in commodities such as water, migration from poorer to richer countries will risewww.globalbenchmarking.org
  10. 10. Megatrend 2: Demography Increase and Ageing of World Population Share of the Population aged over 60 Challenges for companies: 2005 2030  Silver Markets: Main growth for consumer products and services in the field of health and leisure (“Best Agers”)  Internal challenges: brain drain, health management and diversity managementwww.globalbenchmarking.org
  11. 11. Megatrend 3: Environment Changes in energy demand and energy mix 2000 - 2050 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050  Increasing energy Oth. renewables consumption Solar thermic  Fossil fuels are still important Solar energy  Use of Alternative Wind Energy Sources Biomass and Renewable Hydropower Fuels is increasing  Solar power will Nuclear energy become the most Gas important energy source on the Coal globe. Oil Source: Advisory Council of German Government (2009)www.globalbenchmarking.org
  12. 12. Megatrend 3: Environment  Rising CO2 Emissions and Temperatures  Environmental Problems in Emerging and Developing Countries a Risk Factor  More Investment in Clean Technology: Environmental technologies can become key drivers for economies  Efficiency Revolution Continues: Scarce resources and increasing commodity prices lead to techniques that increase energy and resource productivity (incl. recycling)www.globalbenchmarking.org
  13. 13. Megatrend 4: Health  Worldwide the level of medical care increases  Rising Health Costs – especially in industrialized countries (financial deficits in welfare system); eldercare and chronic diseases  Increasing personal responsibility (e.g. health prevention)  From Keeping Well to Health Style – new markets: nutrition (novel food), pharmaceuticals, cosmeticswww.globalbenchmarking.org
  14. 14. Megatrend 5: Technology NBIC-Paradigm: convergence of technologies and research fields (nano- und biotechnology, information technology and cognitive sciences)  Miniaturizing of technologies (nanotechnology)  Biotechnology  Robotic and Bionics  Ambient Intelligence  Cloud Computingwww.globalbenchmarking.org
  15. 15. Content 1. Introduction 2. Global Megatrends  Globalisation  Demography  Environment  Health  Technology 3. Implications for Organisationswww.globalbenchmarking.org
  16. 16. Implications for Organisations Organizations must consider megatrends within in the long-term strategic planning. 1. Selection 2. Exploration 3. Anticipation 4. Transformation challenges, strategic initiatives, relevant opportunities strategic topics, megatrends future markets impulses for (generally & branch) innovation  How benchmarking can support this process?  Are the current benchmarking tools appropriate?  What are the future challenges and topics of benchmarking? Note: for different industries – different megatrends are relevant!www.globalbenchmarking.org
  17. 17. Contact: GBN Secretary c/o Information Center Benchmarking Oliver Riebartsch6th International Benchmarking Conference Fraunhofer IPK6-7th March 2012, Dubai Pascalstraße 8-9 10587 Berlin Germany Fon+ 49 (0) 30 - 390 06 262 Fax + 49 (0) 30 - 393 25 03Thank you for your attention! Mail: oliver.riebartsch@ipk.fhg.de www.globalbenchmarking.org Latest GBN Publication
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