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  • 1. Disasters and Climate Change Scenario Rate of increase of human  Rate of Increase of Property  loss(1961‐1960 BS) loss(1961‐2060 BS) 7000 1200 1036 6000 1000 Human loss in % Property loss in % 800 5000 600 4000 410 2639 Rate of  400 3000 162 Increase of  200 21 2000 Property  0 0 16 0 1000 loss, 223 loss, 223 ‐200 0 ‐46 0 ‐80 ‐1000 Axis Title Heavy precipitations (rain or snow) snow) Storm (winds) (winds) River basin flooding Hot & cold spells Dust storms Droughts Hail&Lightning Flash floods Avalanches Mud & landslides
  • 2. Humanitarian Impacts due to Hydro‐climatic Disasters  ( (Extreme Weather Impacts) p ) Human Loss 10 Year Death & Property loss Loss (Property loss) Death Property Linear Linear (Death) y = 346.98x - 789.87 R2 = 0 6693 P 0.6693 Property Loss t L y = 75434x - 230976 4500 800000 R2 = 0.6064 4000 700000 P r o p e r t y lo s s in t h o u s a n d 3500 600000 3000 500000 2500 400000 D e a th 2000 i Rs 300000 1500 200000 1000 500 100000 0 0 1961-70 1971-80 1981-90 1991-00 2001-10 2011-20 2021-30 2031-40 2041-50 2051-60 -500 -100000 -1000 -200000 Year Y Source : Paudel, D. 2006
  • 3. Climate Change Scenario (adopted from NDR,2009) ( d df NDR 2009) • Nepal is the most vulnerable country to climate‐related  disasters due to increase in intensity and frequency of  disasters due to increase in intensity and frequency of weather hazards(abrupt climate change)‐IPCC, 2007; • Warming trends(1971‐94)‐ranging from 0.06 to 0.12 deg  cel; The hottest 5% of days and nights (1970‐1999); • GCM projection: increase in temp over Nepal of 0.5‐2 deg  cel by 2030 and rising to 3 0‐6 3 deg by 2090; by 2030 and rising to 3.0‐6.3 deg by 2090;  • The hottest days to be increased up to 55% by 2060s and  70% by 2090s; • The hottest nights to be increased up to 77% by 2060s and  93% by 2090s; • Precipitation changes in the monsoon: ‐14 to +40% by  h h b 2030s and increasing ‐52 to 135% by 2090s;
  • 4. Climate Change  • IPCC defined "climate change" as: "a change of climate which is  attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the  composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to  natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods".  k|ToIf jf ck|ToIf ?kn] dfgljo lqmofsnfksf] sf/0fn] k[YjLsf jfo'd08nsf kYjLsf] jfod08nsf tTjx?df cfPsf] kl/jt{gn] jiff}{ b]lv cfPsf kl/jtgn jiff blv /lxcfPsf] k|fs[lts xfjfkfgLdf ePsf] kl/jt{gnfO{ g} Cli t Change elgG5 . Climate Ch • IPCC refers to any significant change in climatic elements (temp,  pptn or wind) long term for an extended period( decades or longer) pptn or wind) long‐term for an extended period( decades or longer) • Climate change refers to any significant change in measures of  climate (such as temperature, precipitation, or wind) lasting for an  extended period (decades or longer). extended period (decades or longer)
  • 5. The Linkage: Climate Change and Climate  Disasters Anthropogenic (Global Warming) Climate Change( Abrupt Climate Change) Rise in LST and SST Variation in Precipitation Ice Melting and SLR Flood Drought Cyclone and Storm Surge Impacts on Livelihoods Assets (Loss of Property + Injury+ Death) Disasters
  • 6. Linkages between CC and Disasters Linkages between CC and Disasters Disaster Or Risk = Hazard* X Vulnerability /(Capacity) Hazard* : ( Extreme weather events) as a Result of CC * ( ) CC affects disaster risk by two ways: 1.through the likely increase in  weather and climate hazards; weather and climate hazards; 2. Increase in vulnerability of communities to natural hazards  through Ecosystem Degradation‐reduction in water and food  availability and changes to livelihoods;  il bilit d h t li lih d
  • 7. Climate Change leads weathers • Climate Variability: Unequal distribution of normal weather  system(amount, timing and intensity) with time and space • The intensity and frequency of rainfall varies with Space and Time The intensity and frequency of rainfall varies with Space and Time For example: annual ppt in Mahabharat region(2500‐3000mm) and  cloudburst causes heavy rain suddenly like 500mm/day‐such cloudbursts‐ may occur at intervals of about 8‐10 years(NDR,2009) • Extreme Rainfall Events • More heat waves More heat waves • Increased drought • Increased frequency of high ppt in particular regions • Increases in the number & intensity of strong cyclone • Higher temp and melting glaciers
  • 8. Extreme Rainfall Events(>300 mm per day)‐ ( p y) Source: Paudel Deepak, 2001) Period AD Frequency(extre me rainfall) me rainfall) 1950‐1970 4 1971‐1980 19 1981‐1990 33 1991‐2000 20  (beyond 1997 adopted from  NDR,2009)
  • 9. CCA and DRR CCA: The adjustment  DRR: Action taken to reduce  CCA: The adjustment DRR: Action taken to reduce in natural or human  the risk of disasters and the  adverse impacts of natural  adverse impacts of natural systems in response to  hazards through systematic  i actual or expected  efforts to analyze and  climatic stimuli or their  manage the causes of  disasters, including through  effects, which  , avoidance of hazards and  id fh d d moderated harm or  improved preparedness for  exploits beneficial  exploits beneficial adverse events(UNISDR,  adverse events(UNISDR opportunities (IPCC) 2004)
  • 10. Adaptation and DRR Adaptation thro gh DRR HFA and Cost through DRR‐HFA and Cost‐ Effectiveness : Preparing risk assessments(HFA  5); Protecting Ecosystems(HFA4), Improving  5) Protecting Ecosystems(HFA4) Improving agricultural practices(HFA 4); Managing water  resources(HFA4); Building settlements in safe  resources(HFA4) Building settlements in safe zones; Developing early warning  systems(HFA2); Improving insurance coverage  systems(HFA2); Improving insurance coverage and Developing social safety nets(HFA4)
  • 11. Existing DRR Disaster Response Impact Operation Post Disaster Recovery short and long Long terms Preparedness Pre Disaster Mitigation Development A Basic DMC,  Prevention
  • 12. Adaptation to Climate Disaster Risk Disaster Response Impact Operation and Emergency Recovery Development EWS (Long terms recovery) Preparedness Based on Scientific Climate certainities sector-wiise PES (Prevention & Mitigation)
  • 13. Linking & diff CCA and DRR Divergence Di Convergence C DRR CCA Relevant to all hazards Relevant to climate- related h l t d hazards d Origin and culture in Origin and culture in CCA specialists : being humanitarian assistance scientific theory involved from all sectors including DRR sector Most concerned with the Most concerned with Existing climate variability present risks the future is an entry point for CCA Traditional/indigenous …. may be insufficient Examples where knowledge at community level for resilience against integration of scientific is basis for resilience types and scales of knowledge and traditional risk yet to be y knowledge for DRR g experienced. provides learning opportunities Traditional focus on Traditional focus on Climatic disaster is the vulnerability reduction physical exposure product of climatic extremes/variability(physic al exposure) and vulnerability
  • 14. Linking & diff CCA and DRR (based on Tearfund,2008) Divergence Convergence DRR CCA Practical application at local Theoretical application Climate change level at local level adaptation gaining experience through practical; local application Full range of established and g Limited range of tools g None, except increasing , p g developing tools1 under development recognition that more adaptation tools are needed Funding stream ad hoc and Funding streams DRR community engaging insufficient sizeable and climate change adaptation increasing i i funding f di mechanisms h i
  • 15. Why are existing adopted measures unable  to withstand CDs?  ih d ? • the design is made without adequate consideration of climate change. The  measures are taken as mal‐adaptation in DRR measures are taken as mal adaptation in DRR • It is not considered future risk to CC . • the best practices of DRR are considered adaptive measures to reduce  p , p g y climatic impacts. However, due to rapid change in climatic variability and  its uncertainty, the natural and human systems are facing challenges to  adapt climatic disasters.  Hence, it requires re‐shaping, re‐designing of development practices  Hence it requires re shaping re designing of development practices including social and economic practices to respond effectively to newly  environmental changes especially climatic extremes.  • For this, HFA guideline and sustainable development strategy is to some  extent appropriate to address  CC by incorporating  scientific program for  i dd b i i i ifi f CC monitoring. 
  • 16. DRR in CCRM Process DRR in CCRM Process • UNFCCC emphasizes capacities for coping with  U CCC e p as es capac t es o cop g t extreme weather events through Bali Action  Plan’s(BAP)‐CoP13 • CoP 13 highlights Risk Management and Risk  Reduction Strategies‐risk sharing and transfer  mechanism; h i • BAP focuses on DRR through vulnerability  assessments, capacity buildings, and response  assessments capacity buildings and response strategies and integration of actions into sectoral national planning; p g;
  • 17. Contd… With consultation of ISDR system and UNFCCC  parties, UNISDR has identified the three areas of  action:  1. Develop national coordination mechanisms to  link DRR and Adaptation‐National Platform for  DRR and the national climate change team; 2. Conduct a baseline assessment on the status of  DRR and Adaptation efforts‐HFA implementation; 3. Prepare Adaptation Plans drawing on the Hyogo  Framework‐NAPA Documentation
  • 18. Contd.. • DRR sector is one of the major thematic DRR sector is one of the major thematic  component in NAPA • Agriculture and Food Security Agriculture and Food Security • Forest and Bio‐diversity • Water and Energy Water and Energy • Climate Induced Disasters • P bli H lth Public Health; and d • Human Settlements and Infrastructures
  • 19. Institutional tools for DRR and CCA) Silent Features of Proposed DM Act‐200(2063)  Silent Features of Proposed DM Act‐200(2063) •Provision for National Council for Disaster  Management(NCDM) to be chaired by HR Prime Minister P lt t N ti l Di t M t A th it •Proposal to set up National Disaster Management Authority  (NDMA) under the NCDM, to act as the focal point for disaster  management functions in Nepal from formulation of  appropriate strategies and plans to implementation and  appropriate strategies and plans to implementation and supervision of disaster management activities •Emphasizes on development of micro and macro hazard and  vulnerability maps for disaster prone areas to inform decision  vulnerability maps for disaster prone areas to inform decision makers to address disaster risk reduction effectively
  • 20. (NSDRM‐2009) Guided by Priority Actions of HFA(2005‐2015) and is based on TDRM  ( ) approach; NSDRM have highlighted sectoral strategy(nine sectors):  Agriculture and food security ;  Agriculture and food security ; Health and Nutrition;  Education;  Shelter, infrastructures and physical planning;  , p y p g; Livelihoods and Protection; Water and Sanitation;   Forest and Soil Conservation;  Information,  Communication, Coordination and Management, and Logistic; Tracing, Rescue, Damage Assessment and Needs  Analysis
  • 21. • Institutional Framework • National Council for Disaster Management (NCDM) • National Disaster Management Authority(NDMA) and  Committees as a Secreteriate of NCDM • Regional Disaster Management Committee; • Di t i t Di t M District Disaster Management Committee and Sub  tC itt dS b committees • Local Disaster Management Committee Local Disaster Management Committee • Community Based Organizations; • Disaster Management Authority at Local Level g y
  • 22. Conclusions and Recommendation: Policy Options 1. Enhance Scientific certainities 1 Enhance Scientific certainities • Develop scientific programes for CC monitoring‐ well‐ equipped stations and longterm monitoring, networling  equipped stations and longterm monitoring networling and cooperation • Promote and apply regional climate model rather than Promote and apply regional climate model rather than  Global climate model‐inoder to identify hot spots of CC; 2. Promote Mitigation Measures g Land use management for carbon sinks and reduced  emissions Payment for ecosystem services(PES) p g Development of alternative technologies
  • 23. 3. Adaptations measures DRR and EWS DRR and EWS Support and promote community‐led adaptations Pay more attention to sectors particularly water,  Pay more attention to sectors particularly water agriculture, health, HM  disaster risks into NAPA p Develeope IWRM 4. Public Awarness Information to local community; Enagement of the media and academia; A fruitful facilitation of international policy diologe  and cooperation
  • 24. 4/23/2010 Activities Inception Workshop DP- DP-Net Consultation Induction Workshop Literature Review Workshop Transect Exercise (Gandak, Karnali and Koshi)) Regional Workshop Synthesis Workshop Climate Change and Disaster Wider Reference group consultation workshop Consultation with the group members Climatic Condition Introduction Regions Ecological zones Climate Country Background High Himal Mountain Tundra-type & Arctic High Mountains Alpine/Sub-alpine Middle mountain Hill Cool temperate monsoon/Warm temperate monsoon Siwalik Hills Terai Hot monsoon & Subtropical Terai Hot monsoon & Tropical 600 Disaster Scenario 500 496.5 Rainfall (mm) 423.2 400 Climate Induced Disasters 300 295 263.5 Floods/flash floods/Glacial lake outburst 200 flood/Avalanche 140.6 100 21.9 21 9 26 34.5 60.4 67.5 11.5 17 Landslides 0 Forest fire/wild fire Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Months Hailstorm/Windstrorm/Thunderbolt Drought Outbreak of certain diseases Average of 30 years data (1976-2005), Monthly Rainfall (166 stations) Practical Action, 2009 1
  • 25. 4/23/2010 District vulnerability from Floods/flash floods Floods Impact is all over the country Sarlahi Among 75 districts, 49 are prone to floods Rautahat Udayapur Rupandehi High impact in Terai Chitwan Tanahu Saptari Kailali Associated with rise in river bed level, bank cutting, Dhanusa Kanchanpur siltation and deposition of silt on the fertile land ilt ti dd iti f ilt th f til l d Mahottari Syangja Sunsari Dailekh Higher loss of lives and properties Sindhuli Lalitpur Makwanpur Dang More impact on Agriculture production, Parsa Bara Infrastructure, Destruction of country transportation Siraha Banke Morang Sindhupalchok network Jhapa Kavrepalanchok Nawalparasi Kathmandu Bardiya Kaski Glacial lake outburst floods Landslides/debris flow By breaking the natural moraine dams Higher loss of lives (211 lives per annum) Impact on the down stream community High Impact on mountain and hill region GLOF potential lakes Major Highway linking the roads are Tsho Rolpa, Imja, Thulagi, Lumding, Lower vulnerable Barun and West Chamjang District vulnerability from Thunderstorm/windstorm/hailstorm Landslides Thunderstorm- Claims lives Makwanpur Sankhuwasabha Nuwakot Windstorm- Claims lives and public Dhading Syangja Gulmi properties Kavrepalanchok Palpa Sindhupalchok Myagdi Hailstorm- Destruction of crops specially in Lamjung Baglung Kaski Parbat the mountainous district Dolakha Solukhumbu Khotang Sindhuli Taplejung Dailekh Darchula Drought Okhaldhunga Ramechhap Gorkha Tanahu Affects a large number of populations Arghakhanchi Bhojpur Jajarkot Doti Out of 75 district 40 district are food deficit Panchthar 2
  • 26. 4/23/2010 Heat and Cold Wave Disaster wise estimated losses (2001-2008) (2001- NRsx106 Lives killer Year Floods and Fires Wind, Hail and Thunderstorm Earthquake Now cold wave is getting severe Landslides Forest fire 2001 919.4 239.25 128.32 1.99 2002 251.09 246.25 38.69 3.82 2003 4169.51 94.74 11.91 0 Increasing tendency of forest fire 2004 234.78 734.96 20.17 0 Last year it claimed 43 lives and caused a loss of 2005 219.29 121.03 0.77 0 about Rs 134,415,000 2006 131.56 247.75 2.65 0 2007 1831.54 228.76 24.15 0.07 Outbreak of Certain Diseases 2008 1538.04 803.22 149.17 0 Impacts of Climate Change Pattern of temperature increase (1977- (1977-1994) Climate change will be expected to alter both rainfall and snowfall patterns. The temperature will increase and cause a warming over the entire country. The rate of temperature increase is greater in higher altitudes and in the winter. (Shrestha et al 1999) General Circulation Models (GCM) projections indicate an increase Districts with high increasing and decreasing trends of annual in temperature over Nepal of 0.5-2.0 °C, with a multi-model mean temperature of 1.4 °C, by the 2030s, rising to 3.0-6.3 °C, with a multi-model mean of 4.7 °C, by the 2090s. There is very little differentiation in Annual Temperature High increasing trend High decreasing trend projected multi-model mean temperature changes in different regions (East, Central, West) of Nepal. Maximum Dhankuta, Dadeldhura and Sankhuwasabha, Sunsari, GCM outputs suggest that extremely hot days (the hottest 5% of Okhaldhunga Nawalparasi, Banke, Bardiya days in the period 1970-1999) are projected to increase by up to 55% by the 2060s and 70% by the 2090s GCM outputs suggest that Minimum Lamjung, southern parts of Nuwakot, Doti, Sankhuwasabha and northern extremely hot nights (the hottest 5% of nights in the period 1970- Chitwan and Dhanusa parts of Nuwakot 1999) are projected to increase by up to 77% by the 2060s and 93% by the 2090. Mean Dhankuta and Lamjung Sankhuwasabha, Doti and northern parts of Nuwakot GCMs project a wide range of precipitation changes, especially in the monsoon: -14 to +40% by the 2030s increasing -52 to 135% by the 2090s 3
  • 27. 4/23/2010 Extreme weather events such as droughts, storms, Extreme 24 hours rainfall (mm) floods/inundation, and avalanches are expected to increase along with river side erosion. distribution Glacial melt in Himalaya will increase flooding and avalanches (Dig Tsho GLOF event of 1985). This will be followed by decreased river flows and water supplies, as the glacier recede. The receding of the glacier will result changes in regional water resources and these are projected to have negative impacts on hydropower generation, irrigation, and drinking water supply, which exacerbates the already constrained access to water down streams. High intensity rainfall will trigger the landslides events on the hill and mountains regions. (Matatirtha landslide event of 2002) High intensity rainfall in the hill regions consequently causes floods in Terai (Flood events of 1993) Practical Action 2009 Due to decrease in gradient flow of river while entering Terai Factors Related to vulnerability plain from the steep hill region, Terai will be highly impacted with rise in river bed level, which consequently causes inundation and results in destruction of agriculture land. (Koshi Poverty and Economic hardship Inundation of 2008) Washing away big area of cultivated land along with the houses including livestock and inhabitants and damage to settlements Insufficient knowledge on disaster management/Low and disruption of other infrastructures in particular transport and literacy rates trade due to flooding is an additional potential impact of climate change. Influence on the agriculture, forestry, bio-diversity and outbreak I fl th i lt f t bi di it d tb k Poor quality physical infrastructure; prevalence of non- non of the certain water and vector borne diseases are also the other engineered construction potential impacts of the climate change. Temperature rise can accelerate drying of biomasses, which will increase the incidences of forest fires across the nation. (Last Inadequate forecasting facilities year forest fire, this year forest fire) Decrease rainfall, snowfall and increase of temperature will Unplanned settlement; development of settlements and increase the incidence of drought. public services in hazardous areas and marginal lands Deforestation/More dependency on natural resources Acts Inadequate awareness and concentration of Natural Calamity Relief Act 1982 knowledge only in academic centers Though amended twice (1989, 1992) still mostly focused on the rescue and relief Rapid R id population growth, Population l ti th P l ti migration/displacement with the deterioration of Local Self-Governance Act 1999 livelihood opportunities The duties and responsibilities of each of the local bodies (VDC, DDC and municipalities) are not clearly stated in disaster management Land degradation caused by human activities including build settlements, cultivation of steep slopes, fuel wood collection 4
  • 28. 4/23/2010 Some Undertaken Local Coping/Adaptation Option National Strategy for Disaster Risk Management (NSDRM) based on HFA principle Conduction of awareness raising programme The focus of disaster management in Nepal is changing Provision of irrigation system to cope with from reactive (relief and response) to proactive (preparedness) risk reduction, as can be seen in the changing rainfall NSDRM Mapping of flood hazards Afforestation The Ministry of Home Affairs (MoHA) is the national Priority given for the preparedness agency responsible for coordination of various aspects of disaster management, including preparedness, programme response, recovery and mitigation of disasters. Construction of embankments, check dams and spurs to limit the negative impacts of flooding and river site cutting Rain Water Harvesting and Soil Moisture Suggested Adaptation options Conservation Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation options with HFA Improvement of Degraded Land principle Mitigation of River Bank Cutting Developing and implementing land use/zoning policies Maintaining up to date hazard and vulnerability maps Slope Stabilization and Management Training and capacity building for disaster and water resource Construction of house with higher plinth level management Working with the community to increase p g y public awareness and Initiation of programme like food for work for post develop early warning systems and evacuation plans disaster phase Afforestation and reforestation programs (for reduction of flooding/landslide risk) Initiation of the community fund in some places Proactive and inclusive efforts to prioritize the need of the poor women Forecasting and disaster preparedness for GLOF, flooding and drought events Livelihood diversification Identified Adaptation Option Cross-cutting issues such as Gender and Social inclusion, Climate Impacts Adaptation options Human Rights and Protection, need to be considered in the Change policy level Increase Floods 1. Enhance the capacity of all the water-induced disaster related institutions in Coordination between all the stakeholders to lessen the gap intense 2. Strengthen early warning system and forecasting between the grass-root level public and policy makers rainfall 3. Promotion of reforestation/afforestation programme Proper training towards the adopting proper agriculture 4. Implementation of structural measures practices, watershed management, agro-forestry, soil 5. Conservation of Churia/Siwalik regions conservation, wetland management and fire prevention techniques, as well as supporting sustainable use of natural 6. 6 Strengthen the capacity and coordination of CBOs NGOs INGOs local CBOs, NGOs, INGOs, authorities, professional societies for disaster management networking resources and biodiversity conservation Revision and proper implementation of the existing national 7. Hazard/vulnerability mapping and zoning and international act and policy. 8. Discouraging and restricting settlements in high risks-areas Implementation of hydro-meteorological information system 9. Establishment and management of emergency supply ware house Enhancement of indigenous knowledge and technology 10. Making preparations for emergency response, relief and rehabilitation measures 11. Activation of inundation committee 12. Clearing water logging 13. Resettlement of vulnerable community 14. Implementation of the building codes 5
  • 29. 4/23/2010 No rainfall/Increase of temperature Drought 1. Identification of Potential drought prone area Landslides 1. Hazard mapping and Risk zoning 2. Forecasting 2. Awareness raising 3. Discouraging and restricting people living in high risk areas 3. Livelihood diversification 4. Distribution of drought resistant crops species 4. Resettlement of the vulnerable community 5. Promotion of afforestation /reforestation programme and bioengineering 5. Provision of food aid technique Forest Fire 1. Awareness raising 2. Conservation/promotion of afforestation reforestation 6. Implementation of structural measures programme 3. Forest fire control 7. Inventory on landslides Increase of Temperature GLOF/Avalanche 1. 1 GLOF/Avalanche mitigation 8. Implementation and promotion of water harvesting system and conservation f ponds 2.Awareness Raising 3. Early warning system and forecasting 9. Improvement of the degraded land Heat wave 1. Awareness raising 10. Promotion of slope stabilization and proper agriculture practice 2. Reforestation/Afforestation Outbreak of the 1. Awareness raising Other climatic factors Cold wave 1. Awareness raising epidemics 2. Provision of the warm clothes 2. Provision of the food/clean drinking water Hailstorm/ 1. Provision of Insurance Windstorm and 3. Promotion of Community level waste management Thunderbolt 2. Community based fund 3. Livelihood diversification 4. Provision of emergency health care 4. Weather forecasting Thank you very much 6
  • 30. DRR and CCA perspectives “The most widespread risk to settlements from climate change is flooding and landslides driven by projected increase in Climate change and disasters rainfall intensity and in coastal areas, sea level rise” IPCC, AR 4 Differing expressions Multiple h M lti l hazard environment d i t Need of integration Conversing understanding and synergy Dinanath Bhandari DPNet 15 April 2010 DPNet 15 April 2010 Climate change and disasters (risk) One word: (two) expressions Climate Change [will] further worsen weather induced • Mitigation – reduction of effect and impact of a hazards - disasters (strength of storm, heat stress, erratic hazard<>reduction of source of hazard i.e. GHG pattern of rainfall, drought etc), will increase number and • Vulnerability - considers initial vulnerability><considers frequency of small scale hazards and risks 'increased' vulnerability on top of 'usual' disaster context i.e net impacts of climate change (O'Brien et al, 2004). Disaster can make climate change impacts more profound • Impacts - long-term effects (generally negative) of disaster g to livelihoods and assets...< -> positive and negative Climate change will act alone and combined with other situation/consequence on ................ due to climate factors. change. • Exposure - closeness or nearness to hazard [or] scale of Will there be new hazard due to climate change interaction with hazard element [>due to climate change - completely unknown today? = may be. exposure of a system] - avoiding exposure is difficult/impossible Practitioners suffer of 'uncertainty' and broadness lying in the information on climate change DPNet 15 April 2010 DPNet 15 April 2010 Multiple hazards with and without CC Mean Daily Temperature Trend (Rampur) Annual Precipitation Trend (Rampur) 25.5 3000 25 cipitation (mm) 2500 24.5 perature (oC) 24 2000 23.5 Mean Daily Temp Annual Prec 1500 23 22.5 1000 22 Annual precipitation has increased by 426 mm in 30 years (1976-2005) [14.2 mm/yr] 21.5 500 Mean daily temperature has increased by 1.30C in 30years (1976-2005) [0.0430C/year] 21 0 20.5 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Year Year Source: Narayani Basin Office, DHM Source: Narayani Basin Office, DHM DPNet 15 April 2010 DPNet 15 April 2010 1
  • 31. Community complaints (before 30 years and now) Hazards and impacts Causes Primary Impacts on • Increase in water shortage for crops Erratic Rainfall consequences livelihood assets • Thicker long lasting fog in winter Large Catchments, Flood land, house, shed, road... • Hotter summer, unexpected hot days Improper land use • More intense rainfall, more frequent floods Crop, livestock, Poor access /high Drought forests, water… demand of water • Longer g p between two successive rains g gaps Food & habitat shortage Mobility, health, Close to park/ for wildlife security… open boarder • Difficult to follow usual crop calendar Wildlife intrusion in • New weeds/invasive species, insects and diseases Species the community [on crops] migration Invasive weeds, diseases, new insect pests, plant Conflicts • Increased wildlife intrusion growth, flowering time Climate change (temperature, storms, precipitation) DPNet 15 April 2010 DPNet 15 April 2010 Contextual issues Need for integration • Single hazard can affect differently • Managing large watersheds and understanding climate • Different hazards affect individually change impacts in them - needs local to regional efforts and collectively • Identifying climate change its impacts in particular • Different hazards impact at different locality times of the year • Segregating the 'CC value' on hazard • Different people (and their assets) are vulnerable to different disasters • Development priority (integration of all sectors and differently and uniformly stakeholders stakeholders’ interests) - integration generates synergy • Policy and practice • In above picture what should we – Negligence to slow onset /creeping hazards recommend to do [CCA or DRR]? • Prevailing poverty – development activities are – crop resilient to inundation?? prerequisite to DRR and adaptation to climate change; – crop early maturing before flood come?? development will not be sustainable if underlying risk • In below picture what we should factors are not reduced and community have adaptive recommend to do (DRR or CCA?!) capacity to 'residual' environment. DPNet 15 April 2010 DPNet 15 April 2010 DRR & CCA: Conversing understanding Integration for synergy • Decreasing hazard, reducing exposure [and • Some people [may] prefer separate CCA and development to sensitivity] account for 'additionality' issue. They are different but have to go together. • Hazard as more or less temporary event; • Both CC and DRR have broad scopes; integrating each other multiple hazard environment is existing. can produce synergy: • Residual vulnerability (on top of usual hazards) – CC as one of the contributing factors to hazards – Additional requirements (bridge span, spill ways, landscape • Building adaptive capacity (to the changed capacity, more specific weather information etc) p y, p ) environment) as climate change is more or less – Small hazards are 'not neglected' (they claim more assets, some longer phenomena of them may rise because of CC) • Impacts of climate change can exacerbate – DRR as one of the objective on CCA • While one is getting major focus (as main sector of work) hazards and disasters>=< disaster can make issues of the other need to be mainstreamed climate change impacts more profound – • In mainstream development, both need mainstreamed feedback actions DPNet 15 April 2010 DPNet 15 April 2010 2
  • 32. How? a case for brainstorming Living with 'uncertainty' • Drinking water source started drying off • Adopting 'no regret' options • There is perennial water source at hill slope which seepages down into debris during stream flow at the intake of irrigation – Minimize underlying risks channel between November and May. Thus no irrigation. – Natural hazards are physical processes that can be • There was scarcity of water for domestic use (Nov-May) - directly affected by social processes. from separate source in the same catchment. • In 2008, community connected water at hill slope to irrigation – Healthy ecosystems often provide natural defences; intake through a pipe - irrigation facility increased or drought degraded decrease community resilience. stress decreased? (where there was not 'disaster' situation) – Environmental degradation is a hazard in itself. • In 2009, drinking water at source further decreased (leading (UNEP/ISDR) to more stressful situation); community connected 'water for irrigation' to drinking water supply system. – Immediate and long-term actions – banned grazing and browsing in the 'catchment'; conservation • Development plans incorporate DRR/CCA measures initiated • Linkage between sectoral plans, local to national • Is it DRR or CCA?. If CCA, coping or adaptation? plans. • What happens if the 'drought' worsens? DPNet 15 April 2010 DPNet 15 April 2010 Thank You DPNet 15 April 2010 3
  • 33. Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction By Maksha R Maharjan Ph.D. R. Maharjan, Ph D Natural Resource and Climate Change Advisor 15 April 2010
  • 34. Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Adaptation DRR – “A conceptual framework considered to minimize vulnerabilities and disaster risks through a society, to avoid g y, (prevention) or to limit (mitigation and preparedness) the adverse impacts or hazards, within the broader context of sustainable development.” p Climate Adaptation – “Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects which effects, moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities.” – IPCC, 2007 Who are the Impact Groups?: Poor and vulnerable people (Women are especially vulnerable to climate change, in part because of unequal p q power relations between men and women.) )
  • 35. Pressure and Release (PAR) model: the progression of vulnerability (V1 X V2 X V3 = V) Root Dynamic y Unsafe Disaster Di t Hazards Cause (V1) Pressures (V2) Conditions (V3) Physical Env: Lack of: •Dangerous •Local Inst. location Earthquake •Training T i i •Unprotected •Skills buildings and Highwinds Limited • Local infrastructure Investments Local Economy y Access to: g Flooding •Local M k t L l Markets •Livelihoods •Power •Press freedom •Structure at risk Volcanic •Ethical std. •Low income Risk = •Resources in public life eruption Macro-forces M f levels Hazard X Social relations Vulnerability Ideologies: •Rapid Pop. •Special groups Landslides •Political Change at risk systems y •Rapid •lack of local R=HXV Drought g urbanization b i ti inst. •Economic •Arms Public actions systems expenditure Source: Wisner, B, et al 2004 Virus and and inst. pests •Debt repayment •Lack of disaster At risk; Natural hazards, people’s vulnerability and disasters schedules sched les preparedness •Deforestation •Prevalence of Fire •Decline in soil endemic productivity diseases
  • 36. Internationally Accepted list of Hazards (Source: CRED Crunch, 2008) 1. g Biological • Epidemic: Viral Infectious Diseases, Bacterial Infectious Diseases, Parasitic Infectious Diseases, Fungal Infectious Diseases • Insect Infection: Grasshopper, Locust 2. Geophysical • Earthquake: Earthquake, Tsunami • Volcano Eruption p • Mass Movement Dry: Rock fall, Landslide, Avalanche 3. Climatological • Extreme temperature: Hot wave, cold wave, Extreme winter condition p , , • Drought • Wildfire: Forest Fire, Bush fire, Grassland fire, Urban fire 4. Hydrological • Flood: General flood, Flash flood, Strom surge/coastal flood • Mass Movement Wet: Rockfall, Landslide, Avalanche, Subsidence 5. 5 Meteorological • Strom: tropical cyclone, Ex-tropical cyclone, Local storm
  • 37. Classes of Adaptation • M bilit - most common responses to climate change Mobility t t li t h • Storage pools - reduces risks across time • Diversificaton pools - – it can occur in relation to productive or nonproductive assets, consumption strategies, and employment opportunities g , p y pp • Communal pooling – mobilization and use of resources that are held collectively during times of scarcity it • Market Exchange – weather-related insurance schemes designed for agricultural or pastoralist population
  • 38. Guiding Questions to Mainstream Climate Change Adaptation into DRR • Wh mainstreaming? Why i t i ? • What are the most important climate-related or non-climate related hazards the country face? • Are there particular parts of the country that are vulnerable? • How are hazards likely to change overtime as a result of climate change? • Is the government is monitoring and analyzing disaster risk information? • If so, is this information being disseminated? How? To whom? , g • Is the government engaged in planning and implementation of disaster risk management? If so, which government agencies are actively involved? y • Is climate change integrated into planning for disaster risk management? • Are functional warning systems in p g y place at the national level? • Does the government have capacity to respond to disasters? • Which other institutions are engaged disaster risk management at national level?
  • 39. Thank You
  • 40. Needs of Strengthening Capacity of Government Institutions Ngamindra Dahal Workshop on Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management p g by DPNET and NDMF April 15 2010, Kathmandu A il 15, 2010 K th d
  • 41. Needs of Strengthening Capacity of Govt I tit ti f G t Institutions ADB funded TA is On progress in MOE supporting to mainstream CC and Env Magmt by: • Studying and recommending an agreed-upon structure and funding source for a more developed MoE • Integrating climate change curriculum into NASC training and the training units of thematic ministries. • Training and awareness raising at district levels on how to strategically use development funds for CC adaptation.
  • 42. Importance of general CC training to understand The difference between climate change and general Th diff b t li t h d l environmental issues Cultivate cross-cutting thinking, strategies and inter- ministerial cooperation f addressing i i i i l i for dd i impacts of f climate change, i.e. health impacts are related to agricultural impacts; we must understand the direct and i di t impacts d indirect i t Role of central and local government in helping communities adapt to climate change Role and potential of development funds and their strategic use in helping communities adapt to climate change impacts, which will protect their livelihoods, g p p social infrastructure, and health.
  • 43. Importance of Training government officials on CB VA ffi i l Specific and unique CC challenges in each districts. Local L l governments, i d i their l l vulnerability in doing h i local l bili assessments, should be able to report: ◦ Historical summary of local disasters—the year, y y , number of dead/injured/missing, cost of damages ◦ Prevailing disaster management approach—is there one, one is there dedicated staff and funds mandate of funds, the office specifically for disaster preparedness, mitigation, response operations and recovery ◦ T d in disaster and profile of vulnerability Trends d d fl f l bl communities ◦ Efforts to address issues so far ◦ Good practices nationally and internationally
  • 44. Issues to address How to address these challenges through g g strategic development fund? How to involve communities in the budget process to ensure development funds are being strategically allocated to address the specific and unique climate change impacts ? How to monitor effectiveness of development funds in helping communities adapt to climate change impacts ?
  • 45. Climate Change  & Disaster Risk Reduction  Disaster Risk Reduction  A Call from HFA 2005‐2016 A Call from HFA 2005‐ Shyam Jnavaly@actionaid.org April 15, 2010 April 15 2010
  • 46. Climate Change Climate Change “directly or indirectly to human activity  d ect y o d ect y to u a act ty that alters the composition of the global  atmosphere and which is in addition to  natural climate variability observed over  l li i bili b d comparable time periods”  …. a change in the state of the climate th t change in the state of the climate that  h i th t t f th li t can be identified ... by changes in the  mean and / or the variability of its  mean and / or the variability of its properties, and that persists for an  extended period, typically decades or  longer ….
  • 47. Climate Change Adaptation Climate Change Adaptation The adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects which moderates harm effects, or exploits beneficial opportunities. The broader concept of adaptation also applies to non‐ climatic factors such as soil erosion or surface subsidence.  Adaptation can occur in autonomous fashion, for example  Ad t ti i t f hi f l through market changes, or as a result of intentional  adaptation policies and plans. Many disaster risk reduction  measures can directly contribute to better adaptation
  • 48. Disaster Risk Reduction Disaster Risk Reduction “action taken to reduce the risk of action taken to reduce the risk of  disasters and the adverse impacts of  natural hazards, through systematic  natural hazards through systematic efforts to analyze and manage the causes of disasters, including through avoidance of disasters incl ding thro gh a oidance of hazards hazards, reduced social and economic  vulnerability to hazards, and improved  l bili h d di d preparedness for adverse events”.
  • 49. Disaster Risk Reduction Disaster Risk Reduction The concept and practice of reducing disaster risks through systematic efforts to analyze and manage the causal factors of disasters, including through reduced exposure to hazards, lessened vulnerability of people and property, wise management of land and th environment, and i d the i t d improved preparedness d d for adverse events. The substantial reduction of disaster losses, in lives and the social,  The substantial reduction of disaster losses in lives and the social economic and environmental assets of communities and countries.  “disaster reduction” is sometimes used, the term “disaster risk  reduction provides a better recognition of the ongoing nature of reduction” provides a better recognition of the ongoing nature of  disaster risks and the ongoing potential to reduce these risks 
  • 50. Climate change and disaster risk reduction  Climate change and disaster risk reduction  Climate change and disaster risk reduction are closely linked.  More extreme weather events in future are  More extreme weather events in future are  likely to increase the number and scale of  likely to increase the number and scale of  disasters, while at the same time,  disasters, while at the same time,  the existing methods and tools of disaster  the existing methods and tools of disaster risk reduction provide powerful capacities  f for adaptation to climate change. d t ti t li t h
  • 51. HFA The Hyogo Framework for Action provides the foundation for the implementation of disaster risk reduction. Agreed at the World Conference on Disaster Reduction in January 2005 i K b J J 2005, in Kobe, Japan, with ith the support of 168 Governments.
  • 52. Adaptation through disaster risk reduction and  the role of the Hyogo Framework th l f th H F k • “the substantial reduction of losses, in lives the substantial reduction of losses, in lives  and in the social, economic and environmental  assets of communities and countries”. • “promote the integration of risk reduction promote the integration of risk reduction  associated with existing climate variability and  future climate change into strategies for the  reduction of disaster risk and adaptation to  climate change...”
  • 53. 1: Ensure that disaster risk reduction is a national and local priority with a strong institutional basis for and local priority with a strong institutional basis for implementation. This need is critical to both adaptation and risk reduction: encouraging a core ministry with a broad mandate including finance, economics or planning, to be responsible for mainstreaming climate change adaptation policies and activities; organizing a national hi h l l policy di l ii ti l high‐level li dialogue t prepare a to national adaptation strategy that links with disaster risk reduction strategies; formalizing collaboration and th coordination of climate‐related f li i ll b ti d the di ti f li t l t d risk reduction activities through a multi‐sector mechanism such as a national platform for disaster risk reduction; and developing mechanisms to actively engage women communities women, and local governments in the assessment of vulnerability and impacts and the formulation of local adaptation activities
  • 54. 2: Identify, assess and monitor disaster risks and enhance early warning. h l i Important steps under this priority include: Developing and disseminating high quality information about  climate hazards and their likely future changes; Conducting assessments of vulnerability and specially vulnerable  Conducting assessments of vulnerability and specially vulnerable groups;  Preparing briefings for policymakers and sector leaders;  Reviewing the effectiveness of early warning systems;  implementing procedures to ensure warnings reach vulnerable  g p; groups; and  Undertaking public information programmes to help people  understand the risks they face and how to respond to warnings.
  • 55. 3: Use knowledge, innovation and education to build a culture of safety and resilience at all levels. lt f f t d ili t ll l l This principle applies equally to adaptation and disaster risk  reduction. Specific steps should include  d ti S ifi t h ld i l d Collating and disseminating good practices;  Undertaking public information programmes on local and personal  actions that contribute to safety and resilience;  actions that contribute to safety and resilience; Publicizing community successes;  Training the media on climate related issues;  Developing education curricula on climate adaptation and risk  D l i d ti i l li t d t ti d ik reduction;  Supporting research programmes on resilience; and  Improving mechanisms for knowledge transfer from science to  Improving mechanisms for knowledge transfer from science to application for risk management in climate‐sensitive sectors.
  • 56. 4: Reduce the underlying risk factors y g f • This covers the many environmental and societal factors that create or  exacerbate the risks from natural hazards. Measures can include: exacerbate the risks from natural hazards Measures can include • Incorporating climate risk‐related considerations in development  planning processes and macro‐economic projections;  • q g yp g, Requiring the use of climate risk‐related information in city planning,  land‐use planning, water management, and environmental and natural  resource management;  • Strengthening and maintaining protective works such as coastal wave  barriers, river levees, flood ways and flood ponds;  barriers river levees flood ways and flood ponds; • Requiring routine assessment and reporting of climate risks in  infrastructure projects, building designs, and other engineering practices; • Developing risk transfer mechanisms and social safety nets;  • Supporting programmes for diversification of livelihoods; and  • Instituting adaptation activities in plans for recovery from specific  disasters.
  • 57. 5: Strengthen disaster preparedness for effective response at all levels. t ll l l Resilience building and early warning systems contribute to  Resilience building and early warning systems contribute to this priority. Other specific actions can include : Revising preparedness plans and contingency plans to  account for the projected changes in existing hazards and  new hazards not experienced before;  Building evacuation mechanisms and shelter facilities; and  Building evacuation mechanisms and shelter facilities; and Developing specific preparedness plans for areas where  settlements and livelihoods are under threat of permanent  change.
  • 58. How to integrated DRR & CCA How to integrated DRR & CCA 1. Map the institutions, policies and mechanisms already in place for  reducing disaster risk and dealing with climate change adaptation. 2. Take stock of the available information on hazards, exposure,  vulnerabilities and risk assessments. 3. Convene multi‐stakeholder discussions to review information and  identify opportunities to harmonies policy and address capacity gaps 4. Initiate capacity development activities to build or strengthen coherent  p y p g approaches to climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction 5. Design joint project initiatives that address both climate change  adaptation and disaster risk reduction. p 6. Conduct adaptation planning with a multi‐sectoral, development‐based  approach and centralized oversight responsibility
  • 59. Key Messages 1 Key Messages 1 Measures to reduce vulnerability and disaster  Measures to reduce vulnerability and disaster risk are proven and are already being applied  to adaptation:  to adaptation: Tools, capacities and supporting mechanisms  for disaster risk reduction have been tested  for disaster risk reduction have been tested around the world and are available for wider  use in climate change adaptation. use in climate change adaptation
  • 60. Key Messages 2 Key Messages 2 Disaster risk reduction offers a triple win:  Disaster risk reduction offers a triple win: Implementing disaster risk reduction policies  and programmes can limit the impacts of  and programmes can limit the impacts of climate‐related hazards,  directly support adaptation to climate change,  directly support adaptation to climate change and  help alleviate poverty.  h l ll i
  • 61. Key Messages 3 Key Messages 3 Reducing disaster risk requires  and provides  Reducing disaster risk requires ‐ and provides opportunities for ‐ political leadership:  Political commitment at the highest level is  Political commitment at the highest level is essential to drive action across all sectors and  to build institutional linkages between  to build institutional linkages between climate change adaptation and disaster risk  reduction fields. reduction fields
  • 62. Key Messages 4 Key Messages 4 Multi stakeholder participation is a key to  Multi‐stakeholder participation is a key to durable results: Disasters and climate change  affect all of society, and therefore disaster risk  affect all of society and therefore disaster risk reduction and adaptation solutions must  involve all sectors and civil society, including  involve all sectors and civil society including the private sector, and community  engagement. engagement
  • 63. Thank you Thank you for your attention !! for your attention !!