AAN NDRC Banganga Climate Change Impact Study report _final_dec2k7
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×
 

Like this? Share it with your network

Share

AAN NDRC Banganga Climate Change Impact Study report _final_dec2k7

on

  • 1,777 views

This is a study commissioned by ActionAid Nepal and carried out by NDRC Nepal. The study speak about community impact by Climate Change and Adaptation priorities by community.

This is a study commissioned by ActionAid Nepal and carried out by NDRC Nepal. The study speak about community impact by Climate Change and Adaptation priorities by community.

Statistics

Views

Total Views
1,777
Views on SlideShare
1,777
Embed Views
0

Actions

Likes
0
Downloads
9
Comments
0

0 Embeds 0

No embeds

Accessibility

Categories

Upload Details

Uploaded via as Adobe PDF

Usage Rights

© All Rights Reserved

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Processing…
Post Comment
Edit your comment

AAN NDRC Banganga Climate Change Impact Study report _final_dec2k7 Document Transcript

  • 1. Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Strategies by Poor STUDY and Excluded REPORT Communities in Western Nepal: A Comprehensive Study of Banganga River Basin: Arghakhanchi and Kapilvastu, Nepal BY: DHRUBA GAUTAM KRISHNA GAUTAM DIPAK POUDEL ActionAid NepalNATIONAL DISASTER RISK-REDCUTION December 2007 CENTRE NEPAL (NDRC NEPAL) Kathmandu BANESHWOR, KATHMANDU
  • 2. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSWe would like to extend our sincere gratitude to all persons who contributed tothis study in many different ways: by sharing their experience, thoughts andopinions, and by contributing time, advice and hospitality. Therefore, this reporthas been possible because of the support of so many people personally andprofessionally.We are particularly indebted to community and CBO members of two VDCsunder two districts for their patience, co-operation and good understandingwithout their support it would not have been possible to complete this study. Wewere encouraged when people accepted our presence, answered our queriespassionately and made us internalize the practical difficulties of the area made bythe recent flood, landslides, droughts, cold wave, etc (all disaster hazards).Therefore, we remain obliged to them.We would like to thank Mr. Shyam Sundar Jnavaly, Sr. Theme Leader, EDM,AAN for his valuable inputs in finalizing the study framework and technical aswell as managerial support throughout the study period. We wish to thank theSSDC and Sahaj Nepal officials especially Mr. Krishna, Mr. Yadav and Mr.Umesh for sharing their update information and situation at the ground. Theyhave been valuable resource persons and accompanied with us during the fieldvisits too. Similarly the excellent supports were provided by Indreni RuralDevelopment Centre (IRDC) in managing the community of Banganga basin forexcellent fieldwork.We thank CRC officials, particularly Mr. Nanda Kandangwa, RC, for theirsupport in managing logistics doing field work. We have learnt many thingsfrom school teachers, students, and other key informant about the changingbehaviours of the people with changing climatic conditions. The informationprovided by these people was also extremely valuable. Their observations duringthe field work were extremely valuable sources of information for us.Thanks.Dhruba Gautam Study Coordinator,Krishna Gautam, Field CoordinatorDipak Paudel, Technical CoordinatorNational Disaster Risk-reduction Centre Nepal (NDRC-Nepal)Baneshwor, Kathmandu, NepalDecember 2007
  • 3. AcronymsAAN : ActionAid NepalCBO : Community Based organizationCC : Climate ChangeCFUG : Community Forest Users GroupCOP : Conference of PartyDADO : District Agriculture Development OfficeDoHM : Department of Hydrology and MeteorologyDRR : Disaster Risk ReductionFGD : Focus Group DiscussionGO : Government OrganizationGoN : Government of NepalICS : Improved Cooking StoveIPCC : Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeKII : Key Informant InterviewKP : Kyoto ProtocolMoEST : Ministry of Environment, Science and TechnologyMoPE : Ministry of Population and EnvironmentNAPA : National Adaptation Programme in ActionNGO : Non-governmental OrganizationsNTNC : Nepal Trust for Nature ConservationPVA : Participatory Vulnerability AnalysisToR : Terms of ReferenceUNDP : United Nations Development ProgrammeUNEP : United Nations Environmental ProgrammeUNFCCC : United Nations ….USCSP : US Country Studies ProgramVDC : Village Development committeeWUA : Water Users Association
  • 4. Glossary of Local Nepali TermsBaadh FloodBari Upland mostly used for maize and mustard cultivationBikashee Biew Chemical fertiliserChulo Cooking stoveHaat Local weekly marketKathha Unit of land, 20 kathha equals to one bigha (1 bigha=0.67ha)Khet Paddy landMausam WeatherPala Harmful thick fogPesa Traditional occupation to run family livelihoodPrabidhik TechniciansSanstha Institution /organizationSukkha DroughtsUbjani Production 4
  • 5. Executive Summary1. Background:• The effect of heat trapping due to the increasing presence of green house gases causes global warming and subsequent result of warming is known as climate change. According to third Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the global average surface temperature has increased over the 20th century by about 0.6°C. Temperature rises beyond 2°C are likely to result in reduced crop yields and some ecosystems will be irreversibly damaged. It will contribute to result in much more flooding in low-lying areas with decline in food production, an increase in disease, and the extinction of plants, animals, and entire ecosystems. Particularly, the poor and most vulnerable people and the ecosystems in which they live and on which they depend will bear the brunt of the impacts of climate change.• Although Nepal’s total greenhouse gas emission share is negligible compared to global community, Nepal has already encountered some of the negative impacts of climate change such as quicker glacial melt and glacier retreat. The climate changed induced natural hazards such as landslides, floods and droughts have affected the livelihood of poor and excluded. Despite these impacts, Government of Nepal is yet to make its way into country’s major planning on climate change.• The impacts of climate change and adaptive measures are yet not well researched and documented. Given this context, Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Strategies by Poor and Excluded Communities in Western Nepal: A Comprehensive Study of Banganga River Basin: Arghakhanchi and Kapilvastu, Nepal was commissioned by ActionAid Nepal (AAN) with the broader objective of identifying the ways the climate change has impacted the poor and excluded and strategies communities have adopted to live with the impacts of climate change.2. Outline:• The report is organized into seven sections. The first section provides the scenario of climate change in global and national context and introduction of Nepal and study area with the second section. The third section covers objectives and methods while the climatic change trends in Nepal and study area is discussed in the fourth section. The impact of climate change in different sectors and adaptation strategies adopted by local people is discussed in fifth section. Conclusion and recommendation is given in the sixth section. The last section of the report presents the annexes.3. Objectives:• The overall objectives of the study are to identify how climate changes are noticed or observed by poor and excluded communities over a period of time 5
  • 6. particularly in the sectors like: agriculture, livestock, health, water, forest and biodiversity, and look at the impacts and effects made by these changes in the communities and their community based adaptation strategies.4. Methodologies:• A number of methods and techniques were used based on the type of information required to obtain to achieve the objectives. As the broad framework for analysis was to assess the status and situation on each of the key sectors the Participatory Vulnerability Analysis (PVA) was the main guiding tool to collect field level information. In order to broaden the ideas and concept about the study, relevant reports and documents related to DRR, climate change, climate change adaptation, and existing policy and strategy were reviewed. Climate related data like temperatures and rainfall of the relevant stations were collected from DoHM of GoN and analyzed. Several round table interaction meetings were organized with stakeholders and ActionAid Nepal to finalize the process, select the VDCs for studies. Checklists and guide questions were used during transect walk, vulnerability and hazard mappings exercise was conducted, time trend was analyzed for disaster history review, Venn diagrams were prepared, seasonal calendar developed and numerous focused group discussions held. Likewise, information was collected from key informants including the government stakeholders.5. Climatic Change Trends in Nepal and the Study Area:• Analysis of recorded temperature and precipitation data in Nepal are limited due to availability of data for only last 30 years. Studies have indicated that temperature in Nepal is increasing. The warming seems to be consistent and continuous after the mid-1970s. It is stated that the average warming in annual temperature between 1977 and 1994 was 0.06ºC/yr. The warming is found to be more pronounced in the high altitude regions of Nepal such as the middle Mountain and the high Himalaya, while the warming is significantly lower or even lacking in the Tarai and Siwalik regions. Likewise, rainfall is also increasing.• Statistical analysis of the monthly data during 1971-2006 for the stations Taulihawa in Kapilbastu and Khanchikot in Arghakhanchi and during 1977- 2006 for Pataki in Kapilbastu district reveals that monsoon rain for Patharkot and Kanchikot is decreasing and extremely decreasing for Taulihawa station. The data showed that the trend of monsoon rainfall was increasing in the country but it was decreasing in the basin.• In the recent years, people also have experienced unusual phenomenon like: more thunderstorm but less rain, more wind, more mobility of clouds but less rain. Elderly people during discussion opined the big thunderstorm without rain is indicator of no potentiality of rainfall. People also have realized that 6
  • 7. the duration of monsoon has also drastically decreased. Now, the rain starts late and ends early. People used to use local knowledge for prediction of possible rain and they used to plan for cultivation. But all those predictions practices have started to fail now.• In Kapilvastu, people shared that after the construction of Banganga barrage, the problem of flooding and inundation in the riverside of Motipur and Banganga/Kopuwa VDCs was increased. In the local peoples experiences, the cases of droughts are also increasing. Most of the droughts cases are found when there is a need of rainwater. The experience of thick fog during winter morning is also new phenomenon for local people. The fog now remains for several weeks to months.6. Climate Change, Its Impacts and Community Based Adaptation Strategies:• Though people have poor knowledge on the technical matters of climate change but they have shown several evidences, which demonstrate that they have perceived, felt and experienced about its effects. The amount and patterns of rain-fall, the frequency and extent of droughts, the trends of crop failure due to emergence of new crop diseases, etc are some of the visible impacts. Through the exercise of historical timeline, people have informed the stories transferred from one generation to another about the changes of climate and its impacts in local context. They sometimes have used the local knowledge on the basis of position of clouds, wind flows, position of stars, rainbow and with insects, pest and animal behaviour for the prediction of weather but such predictions could not be completely relied upon. People have linked that these are due to climate change.• There are many evidences that show that how climate change is affecting peoples lives and livelihood. The rain pattern over the years is a live experience. People have been facing longer and frequent droughts, erratic rainfall, storms, thunderstorm and hailstone. As a result, crop failures are common; the cases of landslide, flooding/inundation, and riverside erosion are other phenomenon and further these are in increasing order. The spread of new water and vector borne diseases are other impacts of climate change. The most vulnerable ecological and socio-economic systems are those with the greatest sensitivity to climate change and the least ability to adapt.• Climate change has impacted agriculture in the study area and the people have reported decreasing trends of crop production, more flowering and poor fruiting in the fruits and vegetables, reduced production from on-farm activities, explosion of pest and insect in crops, erosion of fertile top soil, reduction in working hours for agriculture, shift to use hybrid seeds, increasing workload of women and children and increasing trends of seasonal migration as a result of climate change. Yet the adaptation strategies of the affected people included their engagement in off-seasonal and alternative crop varieties, establishment of dairy cooperative, vocational skills 7
  • 8. building, accommodating in the crop growing season, initiation of community based micro-credit programs and adoption of improved agriculture practices, etc. Likewise, there has been reduction in grazing land, high mortality of livestock, closure of shifting livestock grazing in the study area. To adapt to these changes, people have started raising improved varieties of livestock and reclaiming the degraded land along the riverbank.• The respondents shared that these days, with the changing pattern of climatic features, there have been different health problems. People have experience clear heat and cold related illness, cardio vascular problems, vector borne diseases like malaria, filaria, kala-azar, Japanese encephalitis, and dengue caused by bacteria, virus, and pathogens like mosquitoes and ticks, as well as diarrhoea, cholera and intoxication caused by biological and chemical contaminants in water. Birth of abnormal children is also experienced these days. People have been using mosquito nets to escape from the mosquito bites and also have given consideration in drinking water.• Lowering the level of ground water, defunct farmer managed irrigation systems, threatening of the wetlands, etc are impacts observed in water resources. People have started protecting watershed to retain the water resources, rehabilitating traditional ponds/water bodies, promoting afforestation and conservation programmes and taking alternative measures to increase irrigation efficiency to cope with these impacts. Likewise, in the forestry sector, local people have observed forest resources depletion, forest resources affected from unidentified diseases, and even extinction of some species like of NTFPs because of changing climate. In order to reduce the impact to people, people shared that there have been initiatives for alternative energy sue, plantation of fast growing trees including bamboo and scaling community forest programmes. Because of the impact on forest resources, biodiversity is also being affected. Bees, aquatic animals, and birds are worst hit by the climate change. Habitat protection measures with awareness generating activities were taken by the community people to reduce the impact on biodiversity.7. Remarks:• It has been observed from this study that climate change is evident in Nepal and the impacts can be visualized. Therefore, concrete actions are required on the part of all stakeholders. Based on the overall findings discussed above, the study recommends different actions to community, local NGOs, and to AAN which is carrying our climate change adaptation initiatives.• The communities should be mobilized for the conservation of watershed to protect the water resources. There is need to promote afforestation and conservation. Adoption of renewable energy technologies like bio-gas, solar energy, etc is needed to reduce the pressure on forest resources. In the downstream, communities should be encouraged to make safer homes and 8
  • 9. shelter, management of boats, raised roads and tube wells to reduce the impact of flood. As there are ample opportunities for raising improved varieties of livestock, the promotion of dairy cooperative could be one of the income generation activities for the local people. With this, there should be diverse agriculture that will help communities to adapt to the impacts of climate change.• Local NGOs and partner NGOs of AAN should prepare suitable strategies and approaches for community based adaptation practices to climate change in order build awareness of people in large scale. Farmers should be encouraged to adopt alternative varieties like drought and flood resistance crops to grow more and to secure food and livelihood in difficult time with insurance at the time of piloting these actions. There is a need to establish community based early warning system as a part of preparedness through good communication and forecasting.• As the climate change adaptation is relatively new area for local partner NGOs, there is a need of advance capacity building initiatives on science and art of climate change. These could be training, exposures and cross visits. Policy advocacy with debates and discourses on existing policies related to land, water, forest, disaster, energy etc and their implication on climate change is necessary by organizing different meetings and forums. There is a need to lead the advocacy for the formulation of policy related to climate change adaptation. 9
  • 10. Table of ContentAcknowledgementsAcronymsGlossary of local Nepali TermExecutive SummaryChapter 1: Background 121.1 Background 121.2 Climate Change in the Nepals Context 141.3 Plans and Policy Initiation for Environment and Climate Change Issues 14Chapter 2: Nepal and the study area 192.1 Nepal 192.2 Socio-economic profiles of study area 19 2.2.1 Population 20 2.2.2 Caste composition 20 2.2.3 Language 20 2.2.4 Livelihood pattern 20 2.2.5 Food sufficiency status 21 2.2.6 Seasonal migration pattern 21 2.2.6 Land tenure system 222.3 Weather Characteristics of River Basin 23Chapter 3: Objectives, Methods and Outline of Report 253.1 Objectives of the study 253.2 Methodology used 25 3.2.1 Review of Relevant literature and Information 25 3.2.2 Round table discussion 26 3.2.3 Building Rapport with local level stakeholders 26 3.2.4 Modality of the selection of VDCs 26 3.2.5 Design Instruments, Checklist and Guide Questions 26 3.2.6 PVA at Community Level 27 3.2 7 Meeting with Government Stakeholders 31 3.2.8 Reporting back to the Communities 31 3.2.9 Analysis the Vulnerabilities 313.3 Outline of the report 32Chapter 4: Climatic Change Trends in Nepal and the Study Area 334.1 Temperature 334.2 Precipitation 344.3 Changes in Temperature and Precipitation 37 10
  • 11. 4.4 Unpredictable weather events 37 4.4.1 Flood 38 4.4.2 Droughts 40 4.4.3 Thick fog (pala) 41Chapter 5: Climate Change, Its Impacts and Adaptation Strategies 435.1 Agriculture 44 5.1.1 Impacts of climate change on Agriculture 45 5.1.2 Adaptation strategies 505.2. Animal Husbandry 52 5.2.1 Impact of Climate Change in Animal Husbandry 52 5.2.2 Adaptation strategies 545.3 Human Health 54 5.3.1 Impact of climate change on Human Health 56 5.3.2 Adaptation strategies 595.4 Water Resources 59 5.4.1 Impact of climate change in Water Resources 60 5.4.2 Adaptation strategies 615.5 Forest Resources 62 5.5.1 Impact of climate change on Forest Resources 63 5.5.2 Adaptation strategies 655.6 Biodiversity 66 5.6.1 Impact of Climate Change in Biodiversity 67 5.6.1 Adaptations strategies 68Chapter 6: Conclusion and Recommendations 696.1 Conclusion 696.2 Recommendation 70 6.2.1 Community 71 6.2.2 PNGOs 72 6.2.3 AAN 72References 74Annex-1: Climatic Assessment of Study Area 78 11
  • 12. Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Strategies by Poor and Excluded Communities in Western Nepal: A Comprehensive Study of Banganga River Basin: Arghakhanchi and Kapilvastu, Nepal Chapter 1 BackgroundThe first chapter introduces climate change, the underlying causes and subsequentimpacts that local people have experienced over the years followed by the impacts ofclimate change in peoples lives and livelihood in the global context. In the later sectionof this chapter, climate change in the Nepals context is discussed. In this section, moreemphasis is given to explain how different groups of people of Nepal have experiencedthe impacts of climate change with different cases and forms. Towards the end, a policyreview on environment and climate change is presented.1.1 BackgroundClimate refers to the average weather and represents the state of the climate systemover a given time period. Due to natural variability or as a result of humaninterventions, there is increase in the Box 1: Vulnerability and its characteristicsemission of the greenhouse gases reflecting Vulnerability is the degree to which a system isvariation of the mean state of weather susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adversevariables including temperature, effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. In other words,precipitation and wind (Orindi and Eriksen, vulnerability is a ‘set of conditions determined by2005). The effect of heat trapping due to the physical, social, economic and environmentalincreasing presence of these gases is factors or processes which increase the susceptibility of a community to the impact ofunderstood as greenhouse effect which hazards,’ (The Hyogo Framework 2005-2015,causes global warming and subsequent result adopted by the UN at the World Conference onof warming is known as climate change. Disasters in 2005). It is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity and itsThere are many evidences of climate change adaptive capacity. Among many, flood hazards asthat are being experienced by many people an impact of climate change, damages the infrastructures, erodes the valuable agriculture landespecially the poor and excluded around the and losses of thousands of lives and livestock.world in different forms. According to thirdAssessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the globalaverage surface temperature has increased over the 20th century by about 0.6°C. Thereis new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 yearsis attributable to human activities. The global average surface temperature is expectedto increase by 1.4°C to 5.8°C by 2100, depending largely on the scale of fossil-fuelburning. IPCC has determined that even if we take steps to reduce our greenhouse gas 12
  • 13. emissions now, the globe could warm up at a rate faster than it has in the past 10,000years (CEN).The effects of climate changes are multifaceted. Past and current emissions mean that anincrease in temperature of 1°C to 1.5°C is inevitable. Yet the increase of 0.6°C that hasalready occurred is having a severe impact on global ecosystems and especially on poorpeople. To avoid the most serious impact of global warming and climate change, theglobal mean temperature should be limited to a 2°C increase above pre-industrial levels(UK Government, 2003). Temperature rises beyond 2°C are likely to result in reducedcrop yields in most tropical, sub-tropical, and mid-latitude regions and someecosystems will be irreversibly damaged or lost. It will contribute to result in muchmore flooding in low-lying areas with decline in food production, an increase indisease, and the extinction of plants, animals, and entire ecosystems (IPCC, 2007).Further, as a result of human activities, atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gasesare rising and with them, global temperatures. In addition to increases in temperature,global warming results in more extreme weather patterns: more rain, longer dry spells,stronger and more violent storms, more fires, and the spread of tropical diseases. Asclimate change pushes the world towards more extreme weather, more and morepeople will be exposed to recurrent disasters during their lives. IPCC (2007) predictedthat there will be a widespread increase in the risk of flooding for many humansettlements. Flooding and landslides, the unavoidable results of climate change, posethe most widespread direct risk to human settlements. It’s estimated that by 2025 overhalf of all people living in developing countries will be highly vulnerable to floods andstorms. Food, health, water and energy, the building blocks of livelihoods may facemany of the threats from, and responses to, global warming in the days to come.Without stopping the effects of global warming, it is clear that the viability of millionsof people’s lives and livelihoods will be undermined; without significant new resources,millions of others won’t be able to adapt to changes that are already happening.Particularly, the poor and most vulnerable people and the ecosystems in which theylive and on which they depend will bear the brunt of the impacts of climate change. Inboth developing and developed countries, the impact of climate change can be muchgreater for indigenous communities who rely most directly on their immediateenvironments for subsistence and livelihood often living in the more remote andecologically fragile zone (UNFCCC, 2004). World Bank (2003) also mentioned that allcountries are vulnerable to climate change but the poorest countries and the poorestpeople within them are most vulnerable. Similarly, a study carried out by Regmi andAdhikari (2007) found that the impact of global warming is already being felt by themost vulnerable-the world’s poorest people and countries and its impact is severe onNepal because of the geographical and climatic conditions, high dependence on naturalresources and lack of resources to cope with the changing climate. Climate change isincreasingly recognized as among the greatest challenges human society will face over 13
  • 14. the coming century. While it will affect everything from basic ecosystem processes tothe spread of disease, some of the greatest impacts are anticipated to occur due toincreases in the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events, i.e. storms, floods,droughts, etc.Furthermore, the incidence and economic impact of climate related disasters has beenincreasing over recent decades (World Meteorological Organisation, Co-operativeProgramme on Water and Climate et al., 2006). As the Hyogo framework for DisasterRisk Reduction (DRR) highlights, DRR is essential if the world is to succeed in reachingthe Millennium Development Goals (ISDR, 2005). Conceptually, reducing the risk ofdisasters is closely associated to adaptation processes. What makes people vulnerable?To most people today, this is an everyday question that is as simple as it is complex.1.2 Climate Change in the Nepals ContextAlthough Nepal’s total greenhouse gas emission share is negligible compared to globalcommunity, Nepal has already encountered some of the negative impacts of climatechange. Studies made by Department of Hydrology and Meteorology show thataverage temperature in Nepal is increasing approximately 0.06 degrees Celsius peryear. The temperature in the Himalayas, however, is increasing at a faster rate, which isresulting serious impacts on the glacial lakes-the sources of water for Nepal. Manyglaciers are retreating at a faster rate and rapidly melting glaciers means more seasonalvariation in river flow resulting more floods and droughts in the country. BecauseNepal has a complex, mountainous landscape, floods and landslides have also becomemore frequent and severe. The high dependence on natural resources for livelihood andinadequate resources to cope with are other reasons. These factors collectivelycontribute to result the vulnerable situation of the rural poor and excluded.About 85.8 percent of the total population reside in rural areas of Nepal and meet theirenergy demand from biomass combustion, particularly firewood, while about 15percent of the total population living in urban areas is exposed to different levels ofconcentration of gases, including greenhouse gases. The Himalayas constitute athreatened ecosystem in the world. Himalayas in Nepal are geologically young andfragile and are vulnerable to even insignificant changes in the climatic system. Thissystem is threatened through anthropogenic activities such as farming practices andnatural resource consumption patterns (Regmi and Adhikari, 2007).The climate induced natural hazards such as landslides, floods and droughts affect thelivelihood of poor and excluded (Gautam et al, 2007). Analysis of existing temperaturerecords already shows an increasing trend in Nepal. This warming has been morepronounced in the middle mountain and the high Himalayas than in the lower Tarai1 1 It is marshy ground or meadow. It is the flat area lying to the south of the Churia range and extending to the Indian boarder. Geology and soil composition consists of recent alluvial plain, boulders, gravel sands, clay and fine loamy deep soils. 14
  • 15. and Siwalik2. But its effects are seen in the low lying area, i.e. the Tarai also. The analysisof climate data from four recording stations representing inner Tarai, mid mountains forthe periods of early 1970s to 2000 and one for High Mountain for the period 1988 to2000 has shown that there has been a clear warming trend in Nepal (Chaulagain, 2006).A number of possible climate change-related impacts on agriculture, horticulture,livestock, human health, water resources, forest resources and bio-diversity affectingthe poors livelihoods and the environment (Gautam et al, 2007).Nepal signed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC) in Rio de Janeiro in June 12, 1992 and ratified it on May 2, 1994. It has beenregularly participating in conference of parties (COPs) and other subsidiary meetingsand it also became party of Kyoto Protocol by submitting its instrument of Accession.So far, Nepal does not have any specific policies on climate change (more of which isdiscussed later); but it has some policies and programs to promote clean energy andenergy efficiency. It is therefore, there is a need of comprehensive, multilateral responseto climate change.In Nepal, the impact of climate change is not experienced in the same manner by thedifferent groups of people. The poor communities are at the hardest hit by the climatechange. In the rural area of Nepal, the livelihood of the poor and excluded is entirelydependent upon agriculture, livestock, water, forest resources and biodiversityresources. The changes in these sectors as a result of climate change have affecteddirectly lives and livelihood of these rural poor. Particularly, women are morevulnerable due to climate change. Similar findings are recorded from studies carried outby Mitchell et al (2007) and Gautam et al (2007). According to these studies, climatechange is affecting everybody, regardless of caste, ethnicity, sex, race or level of incomebut women and poor are at the worst hit. Women make up for 70% of the world’s poor.They have less access to financial resources, land, education, health and other basicrights than men, and are seldom involved in decision making processes. They are,therefore, less able to cope with the impact of climate change and are less able to adapt.The same studies also found that women in poor areas have started to adapt to achanging climate and can clearly articulate what they need to secure and sustain theirlivelihoods more effectively. Their priorities include a safe place to live and store theirharvest and livestock during the monsoon season, better access to services such asagricultural extension, training and information about adaptation strategies andlivelihood alternatives, and access to resources to implement effective strategies andovercome constraints. Among the many areas, the impacts of climate change are clearlyobserved by poor and excluded on agriculture, livestock, human health, water, forestresources and biodiversity. 2 The first range arising north of the Indo-gangetic plain, up to 1000 m, geology and soil composition consists of clay stone, sandstone, conglomerate and loamy skeletal. The term Siwaliks is used throughout the Himalayan region. Churia (or chure) is a Nepali word for Siwalik range. Locally, the word chure is used to describe a single hill crest, and Churia to describe a group or a range of hill crests 15
  • 16. 1.3 Plans and Policy Initiation by Nepal for Environment and Climate Change IssuesVarious proven studies including Regmi and Adhikari (2007) suggest that Nepal hasstarted some initiative for environmental protection and management since 1990s. Thedebates on the issues of climate change have even been started. The following sectionshighlighted some of the initiatives that Nepal has taken for environmental and climatechange sectors. • The Eighth Plan ((1992-1997): During this period, two major works were carried out by the then HMG/Nepal. These included the formulation of enactment of Environment Protection Act (1996) and Promulgation of Environment and Protection Regulations (1997) which helped to start the debate and discourse in environmental issues. • The Ninth-Plan (1997-2002): The plan had prioritized agriculture, industrialization and tourism development through environment management intending to contribute to poverty reduction. • The Tenth-Plan (2002-2007): The plan acknowledged the importance of weather for economic performance but was almost silence in climate risks issues. • Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF): This framework included some ideas on impacts of weather and climate. (Shardul et al, 2003) finds that it discusses vector-borne disease control and emergency preparedness and disaster management, mitigation of floods and erosion in cultivated areas, and water harvesting to provide year-round water supply for irrigation. In addition to these, MTEF paid some attention on climate-related risks. But the framework is almost unspoken about relation of hydropower plants due to the variability in runoff, floods (including GLOFS), and sedimentation. The same situation was also observed in road sector. It did not discuss flood and landslide risks, water supply and sanitation, irrigation sectors due to climate risks. • The National Conservation Strategy (NCS): NCS was a major step to systematically develop an appropriate strategy for environment and resources conservation in Nepal. • Nepal Environmental Policy and Action Plan (NEPAP): After the UN Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) in Rio, HMG/N established the Environmental Protection Council (EPC) under the chairmanship of the Prime Minister in 1992. Thereafter, NEPAP 1993 was introduced to carry out sustainable management of natural resources; to address the issues of population, health and sanitation, and poverty alleviation; to safeguard national heritage; to mitigate adverse environmental impact and to support in legislation, institutions, education and public awareness. • United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD): Nepal signed the International Convention to Combat Desertification and ratified it in 1996. Nepal took active part in the UN Conference on Desertification (1977), and in the formulation of the UN Plan of Action to combat desertification for addressing impacts of desertification, land degradation, and climate change in an 16
  • 17. integrated way. Many of the responses to desertification, such as integrated watershed management and community-based soil and water management, would also enhance Nepal’s resilience to disasters and adaptive capacity to climate change.• Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD): Nepal signed the CBD in 1992, and ratified it in 1993. The Country’s Biodiversity Strategy (2002) was prepared under the UNDP/GEF Biodiversity Conservation Project. It listed several climate-related risks, such as flooding and sedimentation, as threats to biodiversity.• World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD): Nepal’s National Assessment Report for the WSSD (2002) recognized the links between climatic circumstances and land degradation, erosion and landslides. It also recognized the increase in landslide risks due to the effects of paddy cultivation and livestock grazing in the hills and mountains. However, adaptation to climate change was not specifically addressed.• Sustainable Development Agenda for Nepal (SDAN): The SDAN listed Nepal’s vulnerability to climate change, natural disasters and environmental degradation among the constraints facing Nepal’s sustainable development. Though it did not mention climate change explicitly, there was a specific section on protection of the atmosphere.• National Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA): Nepal has prepared the project document to initiate the National Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA) with participation from a multi-disciplinary team, coordinated by Ministry of Environment, science and Technology (MoEST).• Major Policies of Nepal in Environmental Sectors: National Wetlands Policy (2003), National Biodiversity Strategy (2002), Master Plan for the forestry sector (1988), National Parks & Wildlife Conservation Act (1973), Forest Act (2049), Forest Regulation (2051), Lake Protection Act (2053), Environmental Protection Regulation (2054), Buffer Zone Regulation (2052), Convention on Biological Diversity (1992), Aquatic Animals Protection Act (1961), Soil and Watershed Conservation Act (1982), Water Resources Act (1992), Environment Protection Act (1996), Environment Protection Rules (1997), and Ozone Depleting Substance Consumption (Control) Rules, 2001 are the major policies in Nepal with the objective of maintaining a clean and healthy environment by minimizing adverse impacts in the pursuit of economic development.• Local Self-Governance Act, 1998: It empowered the local bodies such as DDC, VDC and the municipalities by outlining their environmental functions comprising of local-level planning of the environment, forest and bio-diversity conservation and use, and pollution control etc.• National Agricultural Policy 2004: It emphasized to increase productivity rate and to protect and promote natural resources to utilize them in the interest of farmers. 17
  • 18. Among the country’s global environmental commitments, climate change is yet to beinternalized by Government of Nepal (GoN). The climate change has yet to make itsway into country’s major planning documents. It has also been left out of the NepalEnvironment Policy and Action Plan. At the national level, meanwhile, Nepal has nospecific policy documents dealing with climate change. The preparation of the NAPA isthe first official initiative for mainstreaming adaptation into national policies andactions for addressing adverse impacts of climate change and reducing vulnerability toclimate stimuli including extreme events. Nepal has prepared the project document toinitiate the NAPA with participation from a multi-disciplinary team, coordinated byMinistry of Environment, Science, and Technology-MoEST (Alam, 2004). 18
  • 19. Chapter 2 Nepal and the study areaThis chapter is broadly categorized into three parts. Nepal’s introduction with itsdifferent ecological regions is discussed in the first section followed by the socioeconomic profiles of the study area. In the third section, a brief introduction on weathercharacteristics of Banganga river basin has been discussed.2.1 NepalNepal is a land-locked country located in South Asia between India and China. It issituated between latitudes of 26022 to 30027 north and between longitudes of 8004 to88012 east. The east-west length of the country is about 800 km, and the average north-south width is 140 km. Within the Box 1: Description of Ecological Regions of Nepal147,181 km2 area of the country, A. Tarai: This is the southern part of Indo-Gangetic plain. Itphysiographic regions range from extends nearly 800 km from east to west and about 30-40 km from north to south. The average elevation is below 750 m. Ittropical forests in the south to the also covers Bhavar and Inner Tarai. The temperate is usuallysnowy Himalayas in the north. high.Nepal has a very diverse B. Siwalik: It is commonly called as Churia. Its elevation ranges from 700 to 1,500 m. Due to its poor geology as a resultenvironment resulting from its of loose friable nature and extensive deforestation in pastimpressive topography (please refer decades, landslides are the common phenomenon whichbox 1). A cross-section of the country caused large sedimentation in the rivers that passes from Churia. The temperate is moderate.reveals that the topography C. Middle Mountain: It is also popularly termed asgenerally progresses from altitudes Mahabharat. Its elevation is ranges from 1,500 to 2,700 m.of less than 100 m in the southern These mountains are the first great barrier to monsoon clouds and the highest precipitation occurs on the southern slope ofTarai plain, up to more than 8,848m this range. The climate is moderate in this region.peaks in the north. It has extreme D. High Mountains: High Mountains range from 2,200 tospatial climatic variation – from a 4,000 m. This region consists of phyllite, schists and quartzite rocks, and the soil is generally shallow and resistant totropical to arctic climate with a span weathering. The climate is cool.of about 200 km. E. High Himalaya: Ranges from 4,000 to above 8,000 m dominate the High Himalaya. The climate is of alpine type and the snowline lies at 5,000 m in the east and at 4,000 m in theNepal has five ecological regions viz west. The area lying to the north of the main Himalayan rangeTarai, Siwalik, Middle Mountain, is the Trans-Himalayan region, which restricts the entry ofHigh Mountains and High Himalaya monsoon moisture and therefore the region has a dry desert- like climate.(please refer to box 1). This study onlycovers two ecological regions i.e. Tarai and Siwalik.2.2 Socio-economic profiles of study areaThis study was commissioned in Banganga River basin of Arghakhanchi andKapilvastu districts of Western Development Region of Nepal. This study includes atotal of 6 Village Development Committee (VDCs). Subarnakhal and Simalpani VDCswere selected from Arghakhanchi while Motipur, Banganga, Kopuwa and NiglihawaVDCs were chosen from Kapilvastu. Out of the six VDCs under study, two are in theupper catchments whereas four are in the lower catchments of the Banganga River 19
  • 20. Basin. The VDCs selected from Arghakhanchi fall in Siwalik region while the VDCsfrom Kapilvastu fall in Tarai region. The climatic conditions are hot tropical (sometimestemperature reaching 420C to temperate. Table 1: Population by VDCs VDCs Total Population2.2.1 Population HHs Male Female TotalThe total number of HHs in the study VDCs Subarnkhal 585 1539 1710 3249is 8,930 and average HHs size is 5.6. The Simalpani 1080 3023 3120 6143population of study VDCs is 50,811 in which Motipur 2048 5312 5561 10875 Banganga 1942 5252 5438 10690male and female population is 24,893 and Kopuwa 1661 4773 5005 977825,916 respectively. The VDC wise total HHs Niglihawa 1614 4994 5082 10076with gender disaggregated population is Total 8930 24893 25916 50811 Source: CBS, 2001given in table 1.2.2.2 Caste compositionThe caste composition in the Table 2: Major Cluster and Caste by VDCsstudy area includes Brahmin, District VDCs Clusters Dominant caste groupsChhetri, Dalit, Tharu, Rana, Subarnkhal Chhetri Tole Brahmin, Chhetri khanchiMagar, Tarai non-dalit3, Mager tole Magers ArghaTarai-dalit4 and Mushlim. In Simalpani Simalpani Brahmin, ChhetriArghakhanchi, Brahmin, Pawora Magers Motipur Balapur Hill migrantsChhetri, Dalit, Rana, Magar Gheruwa Tharuare in majority whereas Tharu Banganga Uptaha Hill migrantsand hill migrants Brahmin Sukumbasi Tole Tharu Kapilvastu Kopuwa Loharibagiya Hill migrantsand Chhetri in are in majority Bankasiya Tharuin Kapilvastu (Please refer table Niglihawa Jarlaiya Tarai caste people2). Harnampur Tharu Source: Field Study, 20072.2.3 LanguageNepali language is mostly Table 3: Means of Livelihood in Studied VDCsspoken in Arghakhanchi while VDCs Sources of livelihood (in percentage)Tharu is the major language Agriculture Seasonal Service Businessspoken in Kapilvastu. Apart /livestock labourfrom Nepali language, some Subarnkhal 86 6 5 3 Simalpani 91 6 2 1people use their mother tongue Motipur 78 4 9 9within their families and Banganga 72 5 12 11societies. Kopuwa 76 6 10 8 Niglihawa 81 5 6 82.2.4 Livelihood pattern AVR % 80.6 5.3 7.3 6.6The livelihood of majority of Source: FGDs, 2007the population depends upon 3 Tarai Non Dalit includes Maurya, Yadav, Thakur, Mishra, Rad/ Kurmi, Gupta, Gosain, Kumhal, Kandu, Gadariya, Sahani/ Mahi/ Godiya, Sonar, Mali, Bhujwa. 4 Tarai Dalit includes Bhangi, Pasi, Luniya, Dhobi, Lohar, Bishwakarma, Baskhor, Chamar, Badhahi, Bahi, Bari, Khatik, Kalwar and Gaddi. 20
  • 21. agriculture/livestock (80.6%) followed by seasonal labour (5.3%) and GOs and NGOsservices (7.3%) and business (6.6%). The VDC wise means of livelihood is given in Table3.Majority of the people depend upon agriculture and livestock to run their livelihood.Seasonal labour, services and business are other sources of livelihood.2.2.5 Food sufficiency statusThe level of food sufficiency is very miserable. In an average, only 23% HHs have foodsufficiency for the year round and 18% HHshave no food sufficiency even for 2 months Table 4: Well-being ranking VDCs Food sufficiency months (in %)(Please refer table 4). The food sufficiency 12 and 6-11 2-5 > 2months are decreasing with the increasing moreflooding and inundation problem. The level of Subarnkhal 15 16 43 26food sufficiency is worst among the farmers Simalpani 17 21 44 18 Motipur 28 34 24 16who reside along the Banganga riverbank Banganga 30 36 28 6because of increasing events of flood every Kopuwa 26 30 27 17year. Niglihawa 22 28 23 27 23 27.5 31.5 18.3 Source: Field Study, 20072.2.6 Seasonal migration patternIn search of alternative employment opportunities many people mostly youth areforced to go outside the village, mostly nearby cities within Nepal and India, leavingwomen, children and elderly people at home alone. In such a situation, left over peopleare becoming further vulnerable from disaster because of their poor coping capacities.Seasonal migration normally peaks during November to January, after harvesting of thepaddy fields and broadcasting of the winter crop mostly wheat, mustard and maize.Some go even early before the paddy plantation. As far as possible, male familymembers opt to stay at home to attend to rebuilding and securing their housing beforethe seasonal migration (Marcus Moench and Ajaya Dixit, 2007).People started to migrate seasonally in Table 5: Trends of seasonal migration by VDCsseeking alternative income source VDCs Seasonal migration (in percentage) > 2 1-2 Only one Occasionallysince the cases of hazards are in Yrs Yrs seasonincreasing trends. It was also observed Subarnkhal 12 35 45 8that seasonal migration is far and Simalpani 8 37 49 6 Motipur 3 56 32 7wide. In every HH, one or more family Banganga 7 49 28 16members are away for earning some Kopuwa 14 43 34 7income during some period of the year Niglihawa 4 16 62 18(please refer table 5). The income secures AVR % 8 40 42 10 Source: Field Study, 2007a certain level and therewith foodsecurity but the earning even does not become sufficient to pay back loan and to run thefamily and house reconstruction (ibid). The main reasons for the seasonal migration asshared by the community are as follows: 21
  • 22. • Flooding, inundation and sedimentation cause the failure of crop production. • With the population pressure, land is fragmented. The small plot of land is not sufficient to produce adequate grains for the family. • Inadequate opportunities of on-farm and off farm labour within the village. • Loss of livestock due to out break of diseases. • Low interest in agriculture due to continuous distress and trauma from landslide, flood, and sedimentation.Though people use indigenous knowledge about the flood forecasting, but they are notable to escape the impacts of flood always. With several cloudbursts in the uppercatchments, people assumed there is a possibility of heavy rain. With this otherprecautionary measures are taken.2.2.6 Land tenure systemThe land tenure system includes the categories of farmers in terms of having their ownland; own land plus sharecropping, landless plus sharecropping, and landless plusrented others land, etc. The overall scenario of the land tenure system by VDCs is givenin table 6.Table 6: Land tenure system by VDCs VDCs Land tenure system (in percentage) Own land Own land plus Landless plus Landless plus rented others sharecropping sharecropping land Subarnkhal 88 12 0 0 Simalpani 81 11 6 2 Motipur 72 16 7 5 Banganga 74 16 6 4 Kopuwa 63 15 15 7 Niglihawa 62 19 16 3 AVG % 73 15 8.5 3.5 Source: Field Study, 2007From the table, it is clear that about 73% families cultivate their own land bythemselves. Likewise, 15% families run their livelihood by cultivating their own landalong with cultivate others land by sharecropping, and so forth.2.3 Weather Characteristics of River BasinBanganga river basin is an umbrella in shape and is extended from the north of theEast-west Highway to trans-boundary region of Indo-Nepal in the south. It extends inbetween 270 41’ 30” to 270 54’ 07” North latitude and 800 04’ 22” to 800 18’ 56” Eastlongitudes.Most of its part extends over the east-south part of Arghakhanchi district. The southerndepositional zone is called fan (Bhavar/inner Tarai) and it lies in northern side of 22
  • 23. Kapilbastu. The total area of the basin is about 210 Km2, out of which around 85% lies inthe hill slope and the valley and the rest in fan and Tarai region (Please refer the map 1).The altitude of basin varies from 125m in the south to 2256 m in the north. The averageslope of the basin is 28o. The basin has high potential to erosion and mass wasting variesfrom place to place (Ghimire, 2001). The Banganga River and Dhunger Khola and theirtributaries are the major river draining in the Banganga basin. The Banganga Riveroriginates from the southern slope of the Mahabharat Range in the northwest and flowstowards the south and then towards the east and join with Dhungre khola flowing fromsouthern slope of the Mahabharat Range in north east side. The average drainagedensity of the basin is 3.8 km/km2.A study carried out in 2001 shows that the agricultural land is increased by 85% from1954 to 1990 whereas the forest land is decreased by 13.25% in the basin (Ghimire, 2001).This massive Map 1: Location Map of the Banganga River Basinalteration incultivated land andforest coverage Location Banganga watershed Nreflects into adverse S # Badachour Jaluke S # Ghartisaraimpacts on the S # S # Pakri Khola S # Amja S # Thada S # Rajausa S #hydrological and Mandre S # S # S # Kudapani Subarnakhal Halde S # Bahune Khola S # S # S # Ghorli_Khola Simle Malaranienvironmental S # S # Bharatpur Patuwachour Bhedamare S # Dangre S # S #processes in the Bahunkharka S # Neta_kharka S # Tallo Gangakhola S # Bhakari Dhunga S # Panidandabasin. S # S # Khursane Sattyawati S # S # Simalpani Gandi S # Karechuli S # Dhungri KholagauThe distribution of Nepalsoil and rock types S # Boundarythat determines the Pawara Rivers or streams Trailspotential of the S # Villagehazardsgeologically is S # Udayapur 2 0 Scale 2 4 Kilometersshown in the table S # Nanda_Nagar S # S # S # Logai Bairiya7. Map 1 Source: Topsheets, scale 1:25,000; Topographical Survey Department, 1993The VDCs of the lower catchments are suffering from several water induced disasterslike flood, inundation, and epidemic whereas landslides and bush fires are otherhazards in the upper catchments. Monsoon rainfall is the primary cause of flooding. 23
  • 24. Table 7: Rock and soil types in the watershedRock or soil types Area (ha) PercentageAlluvial fans, talus, colluviums 1133.2 5.5Alluvium deposited or reworked by rivers 1774.85 8.4Upper Siwaliks 1091.66 5.3Middle Siwaliks 5707.35 27.5Lower Siwaliks 4882.67 23.6Bhaiskotta khola Sand stone and Shale 2424.29 11.7Black and Carboneous shale 214.68 1.0Ridhhkhola-Dhatibang Dolomities 932.45 9.3Supa Khola Purpule shale 1602.03 7.7Total 20733.18 100Source: Aryal (1978) 24
  • 25. Chapter 3 Objectives, Methods and Outline of ReportThis chapter briefly discusses the overall objective of the study and the methodologyused during its different phases. The chapter later gives the general outline of thereport.3.1 Objectives of the studyThe overall objectives of the study are to: • Identify how climate changes are noticed or observed by poor and excluded communities over a period of time particularly in the sectors like: agriculture, livestock, health, water, forest and biodiversity, and • Look at the impacts and effects made by these changes in the communities and their community based adaptation strategies.3.2 Methodology usedThe broad framework for analysis was to assess the status and situation on each of thekey areas outlined in the terms of reference. The Participatory Vulnerability Analysis(PVA) was the main guiding tool to collect field level information.3.2.1 Review of Relevant literature and InformationIn order to broaden the ideas and concept about the study, relevant reports anddocuments were reviewed. In addition to these, study reports, reports of otherorganizations related to DRR, climate change, climate change adaptation, and existingpolicy and strategy related to DRR were also reviewed to understand the issues andconcerns of risks and vulnerabilities. Consultation meeting with Women inAs part of the review of secondary Upstream VDCsinformation collection, climatic related datalike temperatures and rainfall of the relevantstations within the basin were collected fromDoHM of GoN. A very less number ofstations lie in the basins. Stations of Index are0715 at 1760 amsl in Arghakhanchi district,0721 at 200m amsl and 0716 at 90m amsl werechosen for Kapilvastu for this study.The length of records of rainfall data fromthese stations is good in climatic analysis because it insufficient to make such climaticanalysis if the data availability is for less than 30 years, But a length of record oftemperature in climatic station (Index 0721) is not significant for the climatic analysis;since it is only available for 20 years. The records of temperature data especially dailyminimum temperature for most of the years are not available at the climatic stations in 25
  • 26. the basin. However, the trend of temperature around the region of the basin wasattempted from different literatures. Risk-Vulnerability Mapping of Upstream VDCsAnd the maximum temperature trendbased on 20 years data of Index 0721 hasalso been analyzed. The temporalvariations of annual rainfall at eachselected stations were plotted andstudied separately. The mean monthlyrainfall has been performed for all thoseselected stations. To do this, statisticalanalysis of rainfall, ‘EXCEL’ from theMicrosoft Office Software has beenused.3.2.2 Round table discussionSeveral round table interaction meetings were organized between NDRC team and Sr.Theme Leader, EDM/ActionAid Nepal (AAN) to understand key issues related tostudy and its outputs. These interactions meetings were helpful in finalizing the studydesign and field work for team.3.2.3 Building Rapport with local level stakeholdersPreliminary meetings were Risk-Vulnerability Mapping of Downstream VDCsorganized with local levelstakeholders to share the purpose ofthe study. It was useful to select thestudy VDCs and clusters within theVDCs. The meeting decided tochoose two VDCs fromArghakhanchi and four VDCs fromKapilvastu district as sampledVDCs. Then, request letters werereceived from these VDCs to carryout this comprehensive study.3.2.4 Modality of the selection of VDCsRiver basin concept was used while selecting the study VDCs. The diversity in terms ofcaste, ethnicity, hill migrants and indigenous Tharu and Madhesi communities wastaken while selecting the clusters within VDCs. It has helped to explore the perspectivesand issues of different people on climate change, its impacts in peoples lives andlivelihood and associated adaptation strategies.3.2.5 Design Instruments, Checklist and Guide QuestionsThe NDRC team then prepared the checklists and guide questions to collect primary 26
  • 27. information from the field. Through the induction meeting, those checklists wereshared with AAN partners in Kapilvastu like Sahaj Nepal and Siddartha CommunityDevelopment Centre along with the overall concept of the study. Amendments on thechecklists and guide questions were made on the basis of their feedback andsuggestions.The checklists and guide questionswere then tested in the field in Time line and trend analysis of downstream VDCsorder to make them more realistic, Date Disaster Effects Trendssimple and to overcome (BS) 2019 Flood 26 houses were collapsed, 68 Iduplication before commissioning bigha of land was eroded by riverin the real fieldwork. 2028 Flood 10 bigha of land I 2031 Flood 15 bigha of land I 2030 Fire 2 houses (Bhusal and Pokhrel) I3.2.6 PVA at Community Level 2032 Flood 1 house was collapsed, 30 bigha IIn order to examine and map out of land was eroded by riverthe climate change adaptation by 2033 Flood 35 houses were collapsed, 25 Ipoor, women, and excluded bigha of land was eroded by river 2034 Hailstone Damage of crops Dcommunities focusing DRR, 2041 Cold Damage of winter crops, losses Dvarious tools and techniques of wave of livestock, 2 children were died,PVA were used. The team of elderly people were in difficult situationNDRC stayed 7-8 days in each 2055 Flood 5 kathha of land was eroded by IVDC and the community to collect riverprimary information using PVA 2057 Flood 8 kathha of land was eroded by I rivertools, which are discussed here 2058 Drought Outburst of epidemic, Iunder. production reduced by 70% 2059 Flood 10 kathha of land was eroded by Ia. Transects walks river 2061 Drought crop reduced by 45% IThese walks were also organized to 2060 Flood 5 kathha of land was eroded by Ifamiliarize with the area and the riverpeople that were mostly affected 2062 Flood 15 kathha of land was eroded by I river, erosion of nurseryfrom the flood, landslides, fire, Source: Field study, 2007droughts, epidemics, etc. Thisexercise was also useful to assessthe changes in land use pattern of the study clusters. 27
  • 28. b. Vulnerability and hazard mappingVulnerability and hazard mappings exercise was found useful to know the context ofpeoples vulnerabilities from climate change perspective and their adaptation strategies.In the exercise, people were requested to show the social infrastructures along withmajor vulnerabilities to disasters, the most affected areas from climate change, etc bysketching the village map in the ground. The discussion was then focused on the impactof climate change on agriculture land, grazing fields, community ponds, forest, waterresources etc in the map. Before that, role was divided among the NDRC study team toact as facilitators, recorders and observers. The symbols were made on the basis ofagreed consensus of the people.Once the mapping was made on Time line and trend analysis ofthe ground, it was copied in the Upstream VDCs Date Disaster Effects Trendslarge sheet of paper. The map was (BS)again presented in the mass and 2029, Landslide 14 ropani of land damaged Inecessary corrections were made. 30 2032 Landslide 34 ropani of land damaged I 2032 Landslide 4 houses were collapsed, 12 Ic. Timeline and Trend Analysis ropani of land damagedCommunities in each VDC were 2033 Landslide 12 houses were collapsed, Iasked about the major 23 ropani of land damaged 2035 Hailstone Damage of wheat crops Dphenomenon including history of 2044 Cold Damage of winter crops and Darea in terms of the disasters wave losses of livestockoccurrence, the experiences of the 2055 Landslide 34 ropani of land damaged Iclimate change, etc. The purpose 2057 Landslide 5 ropani of land damaged I 2058 Drought Outburst of epidemic, Iwas to see and to explain the production reduced by 70%causes and consequences of climate 2059 Landslide 42 ropani of land damaged Ichange and adaptation strategies of 2061 Drought Crop reduced by 60 % I 2060 Landslide 58 ropani of land damaged Ilocal people. Local people shared 2062 Landslide 9 ropani of land damaged Ithe dates and the type of disastersthat have occurred and the corresponding results/impacts. Elderly people contributedthe information from decades back. The following process was used to explore thetimeline and time trends. • Initially, the purpose of the exercise Venn diagram of Downstream VDCs was shared. Once the people knew about the purpose of information collection, they selected the elderly and knowledgeable people both men and women to list out the major events, their effects and trends. • In case of confusion of years, agreed communities benchmarks were established that were later verified from other knowledgeable people. Source: Field study 2007 • The role played by the communities 28
  • 29. during each disaster event was also recorded. The climate change phenomenon and its impacts were discussed. Their increasing and decreasing trends were also discussed. • At the end of the exercise, the lead person shared the timeline and trends to the Venn diagram of Upstream VDCs community for the purpose of verification.The major disaster events and their correlationwith climate change were located with the timeline of the disasters and from some informalmeetings and interviews; a trend analysis ofthese disasters and their impacts on climatechange was also carried out. This informationprovided an opportunity to make further Source: Field study, 2007analysis and to recommend the measures at theend.d. Venn RelationshipVenn diagrams were prepared sitting with the community members based on differentinformation on the existing support of various institutions. The following process wasused to assess the Venn relationships: • The participants listed down the major organisations working in the VDCs with their detail information. • Discussion was made on how the Seasonal calendar of downstream VDCs absence of effective Major Months organisation/institution further Incident 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 promoted peoples vulnerability to Flood River Cutting impacts of climate change. Fire • The participants were requested to Starvation identify the most important, least Loan Diseases important, the more accessible and Fetching least accessible institutions at the time firewood of peoples need to reduce the effects Thunderbolt Inundation of climate change. Freed animal • Further, they were asked to place Snake bite institutions based on their Cold wave interrelationship (one way and two- Encephalitis, Malaria way relationship, near and far, more Eye disease, access and less access etc). dysentery • The institutional mapping (Venn Source: field work, 2007 diagram) was then later presented in the mass for its verification. 29
  • 30. e. Seasonal CalendarSeasons are the integral parts of peoples lives and they exert an important impact uponthe livelihood of the local people. In these sites, the calendar reflected the perceptions ofthe local people regarding seasonal variations in the various aspects and theirrelationship in climate change. It helped to identify heavy workload periods, periods ofrelative ease, credit, diseases, food security, wage availability and possibility ofoccurrence of some disaster like fire, thunderstorm, flood, landslides, experience ofclimate change impacts, etc. It alsoestablished the pattern of crop Seasonal calendar of upstream VDCscultivation and vulnerability, crop Major Incident Months 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12diversification and changes in Landslideclimate. It helped the community River cuttingto identify the most vulnerable Fire Starvationgroup according to seasonality. For Loanthis, the following process was Diseasesadopted. Fetching firewood • People were asked to list Thunderbolt Snake bite down the major events of Cold wave the year and then fit it in to Encephalitis, Malaria calendar. Eye disease, cholera, dysentery • It was discussed that how Source: field work, 2007 seasonality propagated vulnerabilities and how people coped with such vulnerabilities. • At the end of the discussion, the calendar was shared in the mass for the purpose of triangulation.f. Problem Tree for Casual AnalysisCasual analysis was very important to know the types of problems and their underlyingcauses and effects of climate change. The participants were mobilised to identify majorproblems and their cause and effects. For this, pair wise ranking was made to identifythe most crucial problems for climate change. For clarity, the facilitators drew the sketchof tree by showing its three parts: the root, stem and branches. The stem wassymbolised as problem, roots as causes and branches as effects.This exercise was able to analyse the level of awareness of the people at one hand andon the other hand to identify the areas for interventions for the community actions toensure that proper DRR interventions are implemented in the community.g. Focus Group Discussions (FGDs)The FGDs were organized to find potential areas where the communities needed tofocus in the coming days for DRR and climate change adaptation. The objective of thisexercise was to find out the current practices and plans of making communities saferfrom climate change adaptation perspective. 30
  • 31. h. Key informant interviewThese interviews were made with Teachers, ex-VDC representatives, social elites,mother groups, local NGOs and CBOs representatives, saving and credit groups, waterusers association and community forest users group representatives. They providedkey information and shared their reflections about climate Problem tree: Upstreamchange and the adaptation approaches to reduce its impacts. VDCsFGDs were organised with male, female and mixed groupstaking both hill migrants and indigenous Tarai peopleseparately. The gender, social inclusion and differentoccupations were kept in mind while selecting theparticipants for FGDs. The key findings arrived from KIIsand FGDs were later shared in the same mass meeting inorder to ensure authenticity of the information, its reliabilityand validity.3.2 7 Meeting with Government StakeholdersThe perspective of different stakeholders on disaster riskreduction and climate change adaptation was important to know. Therefore, meetings wereorganized with district level stakeholders such as Agriculture Service Centre, Livestock ServiceCentre, Forest Range Post, Sub-health Post, and some non-government organisations(NGOs)/Community Based Organisation (CBOs) and ex-Village Development Committee(VDC) officials. The main purpose of these meetings was to record the perception and viewson the climate change impacts and adaptation strategies to Problem tree: Downstreamreduce the risks. VDCs3.2.8 Reporting back to the CommunitiesOnce the information and data were collected throughvarieties of tools and techniques in the presence of smallgroups as well as at the individual interview, massmeeting was organized at the end of PVA exercise topresent all the PVA findings in each VDC. The purpose ofthis exercise was to share main findings about the causes,effects, impacts of climate change and their adaptationstrategies adopted by the communities and to motivatethe communities in the various aspects of climate changeadaptation process.3.2.9 Analysis the VulnerabilitiesIn order to arrive into specific conclusion, the information gathered from varioussources was synthesized, categorized and analyzed before final write up of report. Allissues related to climate change, its causes, effects, impacts and adaptation strategies 31
  • 32. adopted by the communities especially, poor, women, excluded explored from PVAprocess were categorized in to various forms in order to derive key findings, conclusionand to make major recommendations.3.3 Outline of the reportThe report is organized into seven sections. The first section provides the scenario ofclimate change in global and national context and introduction of Nepal and study areawith the second section. The third section covers objectives and methods while theclimatic change trends in Nepal and study area is discussed in the fourth section. Theimpact of climate change in different sectors and adaptation strategies adopted by localpeople is discussed in fifth section. Conclusion and recommendation is given in thesixth section. The last section of the report presents the annexes. 32
  • 33. Chapter 4 Climatic Change Trends in Nepal and the Study AreaThis chapter mainly focuses the climatic change trends in Nepal and study area in termsof temperature and precipitation and changes in these two factors. With the thoroughinformational and analysis, the chapter at its later part gives the information onunpredictable weather events like flood, droughts and thick fog (pala) and itsrelationship in climate change.4.1 TemperatureTarai belt is the hottest part of the country where the extreme maximum temperaturereaches more than 45ºC. The highest temperature ever recorded was 46.4ºC inDhangadhi, a town in far western Tarai, in June 1995 (MoPE, 2004). Similarly, 1990s wasthe warmest decade and year 2005 was the warmest year on record, followed by 1998and 2002. The same types of information are also observed by the Department ofHydrology and Meteorology (DoHM).The annual mean temperature is however around 15ºC, and increases from the north tothe south with exceptions in the mountain valleys. The temperature differences aremost pronounced during the dry winter season, and least in the middle of the monsoon.Analysis of recorded temperature and precipitation data in Nepal are limited. One ofthe reasons behind this is relatively short length of records of about 30 years. Fromavailable studies, it has been found that temperature in Nepal is increasing at a ratherhigh rate. The warming seems to be consistent and continuous after the mid-1970s. Theaverage warming in annual temperature between 1977 and 1994 was 0.06ºC/yr(Shrestha et al. 1999).Changing rainfall patterns and higher temperatures have forced people to shorten thegrowing season and switch to more expensive hybrid crops. Frequent droughts andfloods are eroding communitys assets and peoples indigenous knowledge and leavingpeople more vulnerable to disaster.The warming is found to be more pronounced in the high altitude regions of Nepalsuch as the middle Mountain and the high Himalaya, while the warming is significantlylower or even lacking in the Tarai and Siwalik regions. High increase in summer riverflow provides further evidence that high summer temperatures are leading to fastglacial melt in the Himalayas. Further, warming in the winter is more pronouncedcompared to other seasons. In this sense, the trends in observed data are in agreementwith projections made by climate models. It can be seen that there is a generalresemblance between these two series: the generally decreasing trend from the 1940s tothe 1970s and the continuous increasing trend thereafter. This suggests that the climaticvariations in Nepal are closely connected to global climatic changes. 33
  • 34. Similar warming trends observed in Nepal are also observed in the Tibetan Plateau. Liuet. al. (2002) shows that warming is more pronounced in higher altitude stations than inlower ones in the Tibetan Plateau. In contrast, the widespread area of lowland Indiadoes not show significant warming. This Box 2: Summer is hotter and winter is coldersuggests that the Himalayas and the In our experiences, hotness and coldness both haveTibetan Plateau, being elevated regions of increased. We are living in this area since generations. We never experienced the hotness as in recent years. Wethe globe, are sensitive to and affected by have realized that before 2040BS (…AD), theclimate change. temperature was usual. We were able to work in the field through out the day but now, w have to break at least 3-4 hours in the afternoon because of the extremelyThe people of study area also observed high temperature.that summer are hotter and winters arecolder. They felt the increase in We don’t know why longer droughts are continuously occurring? As a result of this, we have started to usetemperature especially after 1993. The mosquito net. This practice was also started after 2040.uses of mosquito nets are widely used May be droughts are responsible to increase theafter this year. There were several temperature. We are not prabidhik (technicians).incidences of drying up of maize crops in Like increase in temperature, winters are more painfulthe hills due to more temperature and for us especially to our children, elderly and agedfrequent droughts cases. livestock. This is new challenge for us. The occurrence of pala (thick fog) for several days is the new phenomenon. We never burnt firewood during the dayIn order to know the situation of time to warm ourselves. After 2052, thick fog remainstemperature trends, temperature data in even more than 15-30 days. It has caused our life very difficult. We think, all these phenomenons reflectTaulihawa station during 1989-2006 was changing climate.analyzed. Only the data of maximum -Mr Shambhu Prasad Kewat and others, Niglihawatemperature records for station Taulihawa(0716) was analyzed and this is shown in figure 1. The graph shows that the annualmaximum temperature is significantly decreasing. The downstream of the basinexperienced not a long term Figure 1: Annual Maximum Temperature at station Taulihawadecreasing trend of 33temperature from the recordsof year of data (1987) to the 32end 1990s followed bysignificantly decreasing trendafter 2000. The average annual 31maximum temperature forthis station is 31 0C. 304.2 PrecipitationMajority of the climate related 29 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010hazards are linked with flood Yearsinduced disasters due tochanging pattern of rain in the recent decades. Local community has similar experienceson the changes in the climate in the recent decades. 34
  • 35. The annual average precipitation in Nepal is 1907 mm, with 80% of it falling during themonsoon season (from June-September). Precipitations increase when moving from thewestern to eastern part of the country. The northwest corner has the least rainfall,situated in the rain shadow of the Himalayas. Rainfall also varies by altitude; areas over3,000m experience a lot of drizzle, while below 2,000m, heavy downpours occur. Nepalreceives abundant rainfall but its distribution is not homogenous. The irregular patternsof the rain are the main causes of floods, landslides, and water induced disasters. InNepal, most of the floods occur during the monsoon season (June to September) whenheavy precipitation coincides with snowmelt in the mountains. Spatial distribution ofrainfall is also the reason for occurrence of floods, landslides, and other water relatedextreme events in the country.US Country Studies Program (USCSP) found that the annual precipitation wouldincrease significantly which reflects that it will likely become drier during the dryseason, with a significantly wetter monsoon season. This pattern of precipitation wouldlikely cause droughts during the winter months and floods during the monsoon.In order to know the monsoon and annual rainfall trends in the basin, statisticalanalysis of the monthly data during 1971-2006 for the stations Taulihawa in Kapilbastuand Khanchikot in Arghakhanchi and during 1977-2006 for Patharkot in Kapilbastudistrict wasanalyzed. Figure A: Compartive analysis of monsoon rainfall and average total annual rainfall for allMonsoon selected stationsrainfall trend for 2500Patharkotstation and 2000Kanchikotindicated that itis decreasing but 1500 Rainfall in mm Taulihawaextremely Khanchikotdecreasing for 1000 PatharkotTaulihawastation (pleaserefer figures 2-4 500in annex 1). 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC AverageThe comparative total annualanalysis of Monthsmonsoonmonths rainfalland averagetotal annual rainfall for all selected stations is also analyzed (please refer figure A). The 35
  • 36. data showed that the trend of monsoon rainfall was increasing in the country but it wasdecreasing in the basin. Similarly, the annual rainfall trend in the basin was almostdecreasing (please refer figures 6-8 in annex). The annual rainfall trend for the stationTaulihawa was also significantly decreasing whereas for the others two stations arealmost decreasing. It means the downstream of basin is significantly dryer than before.Similarly, the mean monthly rainfall during the monsoon months in month-wise for allthree selected stations has been analyzed and the trend is shown in annex 1.In the study area, people have experienced that the amount of rain after 1990 iscontinuously decreasing. For instance, before two decades, there was a practice ofChattari and Sauin (local umbrella made up of leaves and bamboo) for each and everyfamily member for monsoon season. It was because the rain is falling continuously evenfor two weeks. But now the practice of arranging chattrai and sauin is almost over asthere is no need because rain remains only for 2-4 hours in one event. People observedthat there is havoc and erratic rain for few hours to day and stopped for several days.People used to use local knowledge for prediction of possible rain and they used to planfor cultivation. When wind blew fromeast to east, when chilly and tobacco Box 3: Mausam are unpredictablebecame wet, when people suffered from The amount of rain in the recent years is continuously decreasing. We have no rain in Bhadra (August 15-bath diseases, when the cloud turned red September 15) for 10 years. It has hampered theat the time of sunset, when bhulcharo production of paddy.barked and flew towards north, during We are also surprised that why our traditionalsukra rise and set, etc, it was considered knowledge and predictions are failed?. In the past thethat rainfall will take place. But all those old aged experienced people used to predict forpredictions have failed now. possibility of rain and droughts. Accordingly we used to make plan for cultivation as well as harvesting the crops. For example, when wind blown from east to east, whenIn the recent years, people also have chilly and tobacco became wet, when people sufferingexperienced unusual phenomenon like: from bath diseases, when the cloud turns red at the time of sunset, when bhulcharo (a kind of bird) became barkmore thunderstorm but less rain, more and fly towards north, during sukra (especial star) risewind, more mobility of clouds but less and set, etc, were considered the symptoms of rain. Allrain. Elderly people during discussion these predictions are now not workable.opined the big thunderstorm without rain We are realized that the changing in mausam (weather) isis indicator of no potentiality of rainfall. the main factor for unbalancing the nature and so as to occurrence of rain. -Mr Devi Prasad Acharya, KopuwaPeople also realized that the duration ofmonsoon has also drastically decreased.Before 1989, the monsoon rains used to start at 15th of June and remained up to 15th ofOctober. But now, there is no certainty of rain. The rain starts late and ends early. 36
  • 37. 4.3 Changes in Temperature and PrecipitationOECD has carried out 17 General Circulation Models for Nepal for assessing changes inthe areas average temperature and precipitation which reflects that there is a significantand consistent increase in temperatures for the years 2030, 2050 and 2100 across thevarious climate models. It also has shown that increases in temperatures are somewhatlarger for the winter months (December, January, February) than the summer months.Climate models also project an overall increase in annual precipitation. The signalhowever its somewhat more pronounced for the increase in precipitation during thesummer monsoon months (June, July and August). These results are broadly consistent,though more pronounced than the Country Study for Nepal that was based on outputsfrom four older generation Global Climate Models (Agarwala et al., 2003). Thus, basedon this analysis, there is a reasonably high probability that the warming trend alreadyobserved in recent decades will continue through the 21st century. There is also amoderate probability that the summer monsoon might intensify, thereby increasing therisk of flooding and landslides with subsequent impacts on agriculture and livelihoods.A study conducted in the vicinity of Tsho Rolpa Glacial Lake in Dolakha district suggeststhat mean temperature is increasing annually by 0.019°C with an increase in averagesummer temperature of 0.044°C. This has resulted in increase in rainfall by 13mm peryear, while the number of rainy days is decreasing by 0.8 day per year. Consequently,river flow is increasing at the rate of 1.48m3/s per year, which is about 1.5 times higherthan increased precipitation (Dahal, 2006). But the temperature and precipitation dataof Taulihawa station is something different. This also shows the changing patterns ofrain and droughts in the study area.4.4 Unpredictable weather eventsPeople get prepared for their activities and plans as per the nature of weather patterns.These are based on the past experiences on nature of clouds, wind flows, historical timetrends of weather pattern, long term observations and the acquired knowledge from theelderly people. Many people in the rural areas were found further vulnerable due toclimate related phenomenon. It is because they are susceptible to, and unable to copewith, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes.In the recent years, people have realized some unpredictable extreme climatic eventssuch as intense rainfalls, longer and frequent droughts, heat stress, hot winds, coldwaves, hailstones and snowfalls, etc. As a result, the lives and livelihood of people isalways at risks and people are vulnerable. 37
  • 38. Box 4: Floods and landslides worsen the livelihoods Due to the climate change, we are compelled to face several 4.4.1 Flood floods and droughts even within the same year. The CRED (2003) found that from 1954 to settlement along the river banks are swept away by flood 2002, floods have affected over a many times and the productive land in the hills are continuously eroded by landslides. The cases of floods and million people in Nepal. During this landslides are in increasing. We have been facing the flooding period, floods killed 5,003 people (24% problems since 2004 continuously. In Motipur of Kapilvastu, of deaths from total disasters), left this year, the flood damaged seven houses, eroded 15-18 bigha of land and changed the river course. 69,350 homeless (45% from total disasters), and caused damages Flood and landslides of 2018BS (…AD) has caused over amounting to USD 990,613 (75% from siltation of Banganga riverbed. As a result, water in the river is becoming less. Until 2029BS (…AD), we used to cross the total disasters). Banganga River through elephants as the amount of water was much even in the winter. Before 036-037BS (…AD), the Similarly, a study conducted by Nepal width of the river was also narrow. But now there is no water Trust during the winter. We have experienced the effects of climate for Nature Conservation change because of our long experience with the realities of (NTNC) found that Nawalparasi and the local environment. Kapilvastu in the western region and The extraction of sand, boulders and stones have caused for Mahottari in the central region are further erosion of land along the river bank. highly flood prone districts which -Mr Budhi Ram Tharu, Motipur have received no or very limited government or external support fordisaster preparedness. Flash floods and a series of dams along the Indo-Nepal borderare the most common causes for flooding. Deaths are recorded with other extensivedevastation: houses and vast land masses are washed away, river banks are breached,and peoples’ assets such as animals, standing crops, food stocks and non-food items aredamaged or lost.Due to changing patterns of rain, people are continuously suffering water-induceddisasters. In the hills, more cases of landslides, soil erosion are recorded whereas theTarai area is affected by the flooding, inundation, river side cutting/erosion,sedimentations, etc. These events have resulted crisis for livelihoods of smallholderfarmers as the flood impact more on the live and livelihood of rural poor. Similarfindings are also observed by Gautam et al (2007). According to this study, the majorimpacts inferences from the discussion were: river cutting the agricultural land, forcefulmigration of settlements that reside along the riverbank, and sedimentation of croplandby boulders and sand. In the other hand, due to erratic rain, flash flood and longerdroughts, the production of crop has decreased and its trend is continuously increasing.The unexpected diseases in the crop during and post flood situation also have causeddecrease in crop production. It was shared that the size of the cultivated land wasdecreasing whereas the population was increasing every year.The same study also found that the flood damages the crops and land whereby makingwomen further poor, and forces them to fall in the vicious circle of poverty. It reducesthe socio-economic strengths and compels to take loan from private moneylender to run 38
  • 39. their livelihood. The flood damages stored seed and grains due to flooding andinundation. Its direct impacts are visualised by the women on the crop of next yearplanning and thus on the food security. Larger investment and fewer returns from theagriculture activities discourage the women to be involved in this sector. But there is noalternative. Hence, poor investment further impacts on the production and itdiscourages them to fully rely on agricultural activities (ibid).It was found that erratic rain, floods, droughts and other natural calamities are thecommon phenomenon in the study village and people experienced these unusualsituations for more than 15 years. These situations are inviting new fear and trauma.Gautam (2007a, b, c) also observed that in the flood affected area, people are sufferingfrom many socio-psycho problems due to poor social network, inequality, poor socialinstitutions and integration, poor social insurance and social solidarity, etc. Similarfindings are also observed by Gautam (2006a, b) and Gautam (2004) in eastern Nepal.According to him, in the flood affected area, people are suffering from many psycho-socio problems due to relocation, poor social closure, collective action and communitysafety. When a community is hit by natural calamities, all of its social institutions arelikely to be affected. Similarly, Gautam et al (2007) identified that after naturalcalamities, the entire social fabric that defines a population as a community is seriouslyweakened. People have to relocate some permanently, hence neighbourhoods aredestroyed, friendships are severed, support networks are broken and familyrelationships come under greater stress. Schools, social groups and families are apt tonever be the same.In Kapilvastu, people shared that after the construction of Banganga barrage, theproblem of flooding and inundation in the river side of Motipur andBanganga/Kopuwa VDCs was realized. The river course was also widening. Thesettlements along both bank of river is being threatened every year from flood. But infact the deforestation in upper catchments is the main problem as river carries soil andboulders along with water and deposits in the flood plain, which cause the problem offlooding and inundation.It was observed that communities have initiated many actions to build raisedembankments to connect the villages to each other and to the main road, providing anescape route during the flood season. Culverts are being built to reduce water pressure,and tube-wells with raised hand pumps are constructed to guarantee safe drinkingwater when flood levels rise during monsoon.Flood forecasting, early warning system and community based flood management cansave many lives and properties before, during and after the flooding situation. In thestudy area, communities are enriched with indigenous knowledge on flood forecasting,early warning and flood management practices. Though they have inadequateknowledge on technical aspects about these issues, the nature of continuously 39
  • 40. struggling with the flood disaster every year make them more knowledgeable in theseaspects. In several instances, their predictions about the rain and flood have come trueand the practices as part of the early warning system and flood management havebecome more realistic. This is largely because they know the local context, the physicalset up, the problems of floods and possible solutions. Therefore, flood affectedcommunities are the storehouse of extensive knowledge on local physical condition andhistory and trends of the flood.As a part of flood forecasting, people have been using many skills and knowledge likeposition of the cloud in the sky, watching the extent of rainfall in upper catchments andChuria area, mobility of ants, abnormal fly bite, and abnormal crying/voices of animalsand birds. Similarly, people also used position of stars, magnitude of hotness, themagnitude of thunderstorm and wind blown as early warning indicators. As part ofadaptation actions before the flood, people have been using some measures likemanagement of search and rescue related materials in advance, stocking Non TimberForest Products (NTFPs) as medicine to treat livestock, creating small drainage in eachplot of land, preparing the khatiya/palang of bigger height and using doko to savechicken from flood. Similarly, people also practice preparing the grain storage,procuring essential drugs in advance, managing firewood, storing dried food forlivestock, improving drainage, raising homestead and increasing the height of handpumps. It was found that the people from lower catchment were more knowledgeableand aware to reduce the impacts of flood.4.4.2 Droughts Box 5: The impacts of drought are even severe We have been experiencing the impact of droughts asIn the local peoples experiences, the cases excessive heat; poor drinking water supply; poor cropof droughts are also in increasing. Most of yields; lack of litter and grass; food shortages andthe droughts cases are found when there hunger. These are strong systems of droughts. Inis a need of rain water. Such events are drought period, many people suffer from many diseases. In such a situation, we have no alternatives other than togenerally: during the seed bed sale our livestock, land, jewelry and other householdpreparation, flowering stage of the paddy, items to run livelihood. Some people also borrow someirrigating wheat and other winter crops. money from money lenders and saving and credit groups. The loss from a year’s drought affects forThere is a belief that if there is even one number of years.star twinkling at night in the month of -Ms Radha Magar, SubarakhalJuly-August, then the production of cropsis decreased by 100,000 muri5. But all these perceptions are like fables.It was found that frequent droughts destroy and erode social assets which are the verymeans for adaptation. When their frequency and intensity increases, poor communitiesare left with no time to recover from previous impacts through either assetaccumulation or acquiring the skills and knowledge necessary for adapting to future 5 1 muri equals 80 kg 40
  • 41. climate changes. Consequently, they are being subjected to continuous hunger anddeeper vicious circle of poverty and vulnerability.Regmi and Adhikari (2007) found that disasters severely disrupt livelihoods andcommunity development, whether they are flash floods or slower onset events, such asdrought. In fact, droughts can affect a greater number of people, and often the eventdoes not bring assistance until it is very late. By that point, many families could havesold off their productive assets, and turned to experience a precarious state.4.4.3 Thick fog (pala)The experience of thick fog during winter morning is also new for local people. Yes, thefog in winter is natural phenomenon but now the pattern of fog is also changing. Thefog now remains for several weeks to months. Before 2036BS (…AD) there was noproblem of pala (thick fog) in winter. Box 6: Thick fogs are harmful nowBefore 2043BS (…AD), fog remained only We also experience thick fog during winter and ii usedfor 4-5 days. The smoke from factories; tobe beneficial for lentil crop. But surprisingly all theburning from increasing population and winter crops use pesticide from thick fog and of thick compelled to are affected to reduce the effect we areresulting change in climate are the main fog. This problem started after 2042BS (1995AD).reasons for pala to remain for several -Mr Laxman Chaudhary, Banganga-7, Sukumbasi Toledays.The pala during the winter cause decrease in the production of winter crops. Potato andpulses are badly affected from pala. The cultivation of mustard is almost zero and thereis no crop of chana (beans) in the recent years.People opined that if they have paddy that could be harvested within a short duration,people could harvest it earlier to allow cultivation of early winter crops to be protectedfrom pala.People also shared that the trends of pala Box 7: Production of winter crops has drasticallyis increasing while the trend of rain is decreased In the past the pala was evident before and after 2 daysdecreasing. A strong correlation between of Maghe sakranti (15th January) but now it remains forpala and rain is also observed by the local a month. Due to this the production of potato, tomato,people. As there was no problem of pala lentil, and mustard is drastically reduced. People are unable to harvest mustard and other winter cropslast winter, there was excess of rain because of thick fog.during last monsoon. Last years rain is -Mr Barma Singh, Jarlaiya, Niglihawaconsidered as good rain within ten yearsof period.The thick fog is drying forest resources, the Sisau trees at one hand and people citeexample of its affect in livestock deaths. 41
  • 42. Hence, the changes in weather events drastically changes the way of peoples lives andlivelihoods. Frequent droughts and flooding cases are not only eroding the social assetsand knowledge of people, but also leaving people more vulnerable to disaster andpushing them into hunger, famine and poverty. 42
  • 43. Chapter 5 Climate Change, Its Impacts and Community Based Adaptation StrategiesThis chapter explains how climate change is linked to various sectors and how thesesectors are affected from climate change. The broad sectors of analysis includeagriculture, animal husbandry, health, forestry, water and biodiversity.Though people have poor knowledge on the technical matters of climate change butthey have shown several evidences which demonstrate that they have perceived, feltand experienced about its effects. The amount and patterns of rain-fall, the frequencyand extent of droughts, the trends of crop failure due to emergence of new cropdiseases, etc are some of the visible impacts. Through the exercise of historical timeline,people have told the stories transferred from one generation to another about thechanges of climate and its impacts in local context. They sometimes have used the localknowledge on the basis of position of clouds, wind flows, position of stars, rainbow andwith insects, pest and animal behaviour for the prediction of weather but suchpredictions could not be completely relied upon. People linked that these were due toclimate change.There are many evidences that show that how climate change is affecting peoples livesand livelihood. The rain pattern over the years is a live experience. People have beenfacing longer and frequent droughts, erratic rainfall, storms, thunderstorm andhailstone. As a result, crop failures are common; the cases of landslide,flooding/inundation, river side erosion are other phenomenons and further these arein increasing order. The spread of new water and vector borne diseases are otherimpacts of climate change. The most vulnerable ecological and socio-economic systemsare those with the greatest sensitivity to climate change and the least ability to adapt.Nepal is closely linking climate change adaptation to poverty alleviation, in addition tomaximizing synergies with other environmental concerns such as land degradation,biodiversity, and disaster reduction. Nepals major natural resources, biodiversity andwater, are at the forefront of climate vulnerability (Raut, 2006). At a conceptual level,adaptation in human systems can be thought of as driven by two core processes:selective pressures (the equivalent of natural selection in ecosystems) and what mightbe termed agency-driven innovation (that is, proactive forms of innovation or action inresponse to perceived constraints and opportunities). These two processes are notseparate; they interact as agents experience selective pressures or perceive opportunitiesand most commonly act pro-actively or ‘adapt’ within the limits of their capacities,perceptions and priorities. Nepal’s complex topography and geography leaves it quitevulnerable to climate change. Mainly the agriculture, animal husbandry, health,forestry, water and biodiversity, among others, would have serious consequences bythe effects of climate change. The following section deals the general background, the 43
  • 44. impacts of climate change in these sectors and adaptation strategies adopted by thepeople.5.1 AgricultureSince long, Nepal is considered one of the agriculture dominated countries andlivelihood of the people is entirely dependent on agriculture. Food, the basic need forlives, is also acquired from agriculture. Unfortunately, this sector is particularlyvulnerable to the vagaries of the weather. Temperature, humidity, solar radiation andprecipitation are important climatic factors for crops. Permanent changes in thesefactors can lead to failure of crops and subsequent low crop production. Extremeclimatic events such as intense rainfalls causing flooding and landslides, droughts andother stress are undesirable. The associated crop failure also invites famine. Therefore,whether it brings increasing floods and storms or worse drought, climate change hasbeen havoc for poor farmers, jeopardizing their livelihoods and threatening their foodsecurity in the long run.With staggering increase in population and food demand, even a slight decline inannual food production is a matter of great concern in the country like Nepal. Thissector is adversely affected by the loss of top fertile soil due to soil erosion, landslidesand floods. Soil loss is a major cause of decline in agriculture production and thenegative effects of climate change may further aggravate this situation.The agriculture sector has many challenges. First, numerous studies highlighted thatacross the country, over half of all households rely on less than 0.5 hectares (0.67haequals 1 bigha) of land to support each family of around six members. Second, thedevelopment of agriculture is still in subsistence level. Third, limited crops are thesources of food security. Paddy in the Tarai and maize, wheat and barley in the hills arethe common crops to grow. Forth, there is negative correlation between increase inpopulation and food demand with total annual production due to many reasonsincluding variation in weather and climatic patterns.The flood related disasters challenges the heavy soil erosion and landslide particularlyin the hills and river-side erosion, land cutting, siltation, flooding and longer periodinundations problems resulting reduction in yields.The proven research findings and the responses of the people during the fieldworkconfirmed that the rate of precipitation of winter season (especially from November toApril) is decreasing which directly impacted the winter and spring crops. Thecontinuous reduction in production has incessantly been creating hunger,vulnerabilities and famine in the poor communities. 44
  • 45. Irrigation is the major input for the better agriculture production. It is estimated thatabout 80% of all water in Nepal is used for irrigation. But the changes in temperatureand precipitation will alter the hydrological cycle. People during the discussion stressedthat higher temperatures, increased evapo-transpiration and decreased winterprecipitation are the main consequence of repeated droughts. This finding is alsosupported by the study carried out by CSTNEPAL (1997). The study confirmed thatincreased variability would severely impact irrigation and the farming livelihoodsdependent on it.Changes may result in unpredictable and unreliable runoff, posing potentially seriousrisk to water supplies in the lean season. This has already caused severe droughts inIran and Pakistan in areas that depend on water from mountain sources (Subbiah,2001). Increased variability would severely impact irrigation and the farminglivelihoods dependent on it. The land that can be cultivated varies by location andseason, since the vast majority of surface water irrigation systems in Nepal depend onthe water flowing at its source (USCSP, 1997).5.1.1 Impacts of climate change on AgricultureThe changes in climate impact the agriculture sectors in several forms. The majorimpacts of climate change in agriculture sector are discussed hereunder.a. Decreasing trends of crop Box 8: Weather related extreme events caused reduction in productionproduction In our opinion, the reasons for crop failure are longer droughts,Several studies in the past have high temperature, cold wave, pala and heavy rain for short period.argued that for the better crop We think these entire phenomenons are due to climate change. We did not experience such events before 23 years.production, the role oftemperature, humidity, solar The amount of water during the monsoon is continuouslyradiation and precipitation is decreasing. The rainfall occurs only for few days but the extent of rain is high as compared to past. Due to this, we are continuouslyimportant as they all are suffering from landslide and soil erosion in the hills and river sidenecessary climatic factors. It is cutting, and inundation in the Tarai. We are facing more floodobvious that permanent changes induced disasters for the past decades.in these factors can lead to failure The importance of slow but continuous rain is especially necessaryof some crops and can reduce in for paddy during flowering stage, otherwise the production is notyield. Similarly, another study satisfactory. Similarly, heavy wind is harmful at the flowering stage. We have not experienced mild rain since 2043.suggested that temperature risesbeyond 2°C are, according to the In these days, the nature of droughts is also different. Past droughtsIPCC, likely to result in reduced have been short and rainfall used to compensate the effects of droughts but now we have been facing many drought eventscrop yields in most tropical, sub- without rainfall. I think all these actions are responsible to reducetropical, and mid-latitude the crop production.regions. Apart from these, with -Ms Laxmi Chaudhary, Bangangaincreasing temperature, morecases of flooding in low-lyingareas will be high, declines in food production, an increase in crop diseases. 45
  • 46. The study found that the major causes of crop failures of winter crops are mainly due tounpredictable longer and frequent droughts and monsoon crops due to heavy rain,landslide, flooding and inundation. As noted earlier, in the hills, majority of thepopulation is directly dependent on a few crops, such as maize, wheat and barley andwheat and paddy in the Tarai region. These crops are very sensitive to climate change and its impact is reduction in yield. Rise Table 9: Production Scenario within 30 years in temperature has a negative effect on Crops Total production 1977 2007 maize as well as wheat and mustard. Paddy 10 quintal/bigha 30 quintal/bigha The production of other winter crops Mustard 60 kg/kattha 40 kg/kattha such as cereal, pulses, vegetables, fruits Wheat No practice at all 20-25 quintal/bigha etc is also reduced due to changes in the Maize 6 quintal/bigha 4 quintal/bigha Pulses 6 quintal/bigha 2 quintal/bigha climate particularly due to longer Source: FGDs and KIIs drought and erratic rain. The production of chana is completely extinctfrom many parts of the Tarai region including the study area (see table 9).Monsoon crops are suffering from wind-storm and heavy rain during flowering stage ofplant. The wind during flowering stage is considered very harmful especially for paddycrops.Despite of unfavourable Box 9: Agriculture sector is badly affected by changing climateclimatic conditions, it was events We are surprised that since 2001, there was new problem of morefound that the production of flowering and less fruiting in the fruits and vegetables. We at first observedpaddy and maize is this case in lauka (gourd) and mangos. This trend is continuouslyincreasing whereas the increasing. Now we could not be able to harvest the pear, mango, guava, litchi fruits, etc, and cucumber, beans vegetables unless we used pesticidesproduction of others crops is to resume the flowers. We are surprised on these changes required. Use ofdecreasing. The reasons for hybrid seeds instead of local is also the demand of time and nature.increasing the production of In our experiences, the unpredictable climate and rapidly changing weatherpaddy and maize are due to has caused many new diseases in crops and fruits. Khirro, ashuro, simali,excess use of chemical ketuki, kharani, nim, etc were used once crops were diseased, and theirfertilizer and pesticides. The effectiveness was also very good. We had no idea of English medicines (pesticides) then. Now, unless the use of aausadhi (insecticides andchanging climatic pesticides), there is no chance of harvesting the good crop yield.phenomenon areresponsible for decreasing As the production is drastically decreased, we have reduced interest in the cultivation as well as the sharecropping practices. The weather relatedthe crops other than paddy phenomenon is also responsible for the erosion of fertile top soil in theand maize. The data of crop hills. More cases of landslides are also observed in the recent years. This isproduction is given in table one of the main reasons for increasing trends of seasonal migration.9. We also experienced that the changes in climatic conditions also reduced the working hours for agriculture and increased the workload of womenAs crop yields decline and and children in agriculture. These all phenomenon have impacted our agriculture patterns and behaviors.resources become scarcer, -Mr. Balaram Gurung, Subarnakhalwomen’s workload has beenexpanded, jeopardizing their opportunities to be engaged outside the home or to attend 46
  • 47. school. In times of drought, they will also have to spend more time performing anothertypical female responsibility — carrying, purifying and supplying the family’s water(Mitchell et al., 2007, Gautam et al., 2007).b. Much flowering and poor fruiting in the fruits and vegetablesThe visible but surprising phenomenon like much flowering and poor fruiting in thefruits and vegetables was observed by local people in the recent years in the studyareas. They have no idea about its root causes but they argued that the changingclimatic condition is the main reason. Since then people have been motivated to usepesticides and insecticides in the fruits and vegetables in order to resume the flowers. Itis because unless they resume the flowers, there is poor chance of fruiting. Usingpesticides and insecticides is unnecessary financial burden. As a result, many people arediscouraged to cultivate the crops that are more affected by the weather variability andpeople have shifted to new occupations.c. Reducing the scope of on-farm activitiesIn the recent years, people have changed their agri-based occupation to off-farmactivities/or in seasonal labour work in India. The unpredictable climate and rapidlychanging weather have resulted the delay in seedbed preparation. The delay in seedbed means delay in paddy transplantation. And delay in transplantation meansreduction in yield. Even investment of handsome money in agriculture inputs, in therecent years, people are unable to get satisfactory return. This is the reason that peopleare not much interested in the sharecropping and rental land practices that used to bepopular in Tarai region of Nepal.The continuous cases of more floods and droughts further worsen the lives andlivelihood of people. As a result, people are slowly attracted in off-farm activities hencethey are interested to invest in these sectors within and outside the village.d. Explosion of Pest and Insect in cropsIt was shared that local people have enough Box 10: Over use of pesticides affects our human healthknowledge on preparation and application of We are compelled to eat pesticide in ourherbicides when crops suffer from diseases. Khirro, food because we eat off-seasonalashuro, simali, ketuki, nim, etc are some of the non- vegetables. The production of off- seasonal vegetable is higher because oftimber forest products (NTFPs) that have been used the use of chemical fertilizer, pesticideas herbicides since generations. Their effectiveness and insecticide. The insects and pestsused to be more than the pesticides and insecticides in are not killed even after the use of Meta acid. The taste of cucumber andthe past. But now after the application of chemical cauliflower is gone completely. It isfertilizer, the effectiveness of these NTFPs is greatly necessarily to seek the alternatives ofreduced. chemical fertilizer, pesticides otherwise we will die in some years. -Mr Jhavilal Bhandari, Motipur 4, BalapurIn the recent years, people have to observe manyunidentified diseases in crops. Some of the popular diseases includes: whitening of 47
  • 48. leafs, Patero, Latti, etc. People said that high humidity creates a favourable environmentfor the growth of fungal and bacterial diseases in the crops. People repeatedlyexpressed that the explosion of crop diseases is increasing due to excess use of chemicalfertilizer, pesticides and insecticides. Poor rain and longer droughts are other reasons asperceived by local people.Due to land fragmentation, people wish to produce more grain from small chunk ofland. Hence, they mostly use more fertilizers and other agriculture inputs. This is themain reason for grooming new diseases in the crops.There is poor possibility of cultivating off-seasonal vegetables like cucumber, beans andtomatoes without the application of pesticides. In the other hand, people opined thatthe production of mustard, potato and pulses are reduced due to excess use of pesticideand insecticide. The production of maize, which is the prominent crop of mid hills, hasgone tremendously. Before 30 years the stem of maize used to be too high that peoplecould tab their buffaloes and the yield of the maize was also very impressive. But allthese have changed.e. Erosion of fertile top soilThe erratic rain in the recent years has resulted more landslide and erosion cases in thehills. Top soil is considered very fertile because people treated this part of soil everyyear with compost manure. In Subarnakhal and Simalpani VDCs, the top fertile soil wasno more available in the recent years due to soil erosion, landslides and floods. About 5-7 cm top soil is reduced as compared to the situation of 1987. Therefore, soil loss is amajor cause of decline in agriculture production in the hills and its effects is negativeparticularly in yield. The germination and growth rate are affected.f. Reduction in working hours for agricultureDue to excess temperature, working hours in summer are decreased as compared topast. Before a decade back, agriculture wage labourer used to work 8 hours from 9 amto 5 pm without break. Now the way of working has changed. The worker in the fieldgets involved in morning from 8-11 am and 3-5 pm in the afternoon. The periodbetween 11 am to 3 pm is too hot during the summer. People shared that this is thevisible evidences of raising temperature.g. Shift to use hybrid seedsDue to reduction of monsoon season/period by 1.5 month, the cultivation of longperiod of monsoon crops is not feasible in the changed context in the project areas. Asthe rain starts late and stop early, people are unable to cultivate long variety of paddylike: Sattehri, kanajira, basmati, aanagi, aanadi, kala nimak, loti, etc. As the local varieties ofpaddy needs much water as irrigation, people are compelled to use hybrid varieties ofpaddy after 1981. Additionally, people are compelled to change seeds every yearbecause second generation seed wouldn’t work properly. Changing rainfall patterns 48
  • 49. and higher temperatures have forced people to adopt short ripen varieties and to switchto more expensive hybrid crops.Unfortunately, the cost of hybrid seed is quite costly that poor can not afford. After thecultivation of hybrid seeds, people are unable to cultivate local variety because pests inthese crops would destroy them. It shows that the changing pattern of climate mostlyhas affected the poor and excluded communities.h. Increase the workload of women and childrenWith the increasing trend of crop failures and limited on-farm scopes within the villagedue to weather variation, the male counterparts used to go for seasonal migrationoutside the village leaving women and children at home alone. The social structuredoes not allow women to work outside the village. In such a situation women haveadditional family roles. Apart from running family affairs, they have to look after thelivestock and involve in agriculture activities. When the crop fails, they have to takeloan from private moneylenders to run their families. These phenomenons push themin vicious circle of poverty.i. Increasing trends of seasonal migrationThe trend of seasonal migration is common phenomena of the recent years. Its reasonsare many. Some of the outstanding reasons as shared during study are: crop failure,decrease in land size, more cases of landslides in the hills, etc. Several water induceddisasters like landslide, erosion of productive soil, etc are other reasons. Seasonalmigration was reported to be started after 1990.Changing weather events and climatic conditions have continuously emerged newproblems and challenges. As a result, there has been propagation of hunger, famine andpoverty. Many people from hills have migrated to Tarai permanently after theirlivelihoods threatened by water induced disasters. With rapid immigration to Tarai,population pressure has increased here, with increasing concerns in the balance ofecology and socio-cultural set-up. The people of Tarai and hill have been migrating inthe urban centres within Nepal and cities of India and even in Arabian countries insearch of employment.While young men are forced to leave their communities in search of new employment,women, children and elderly are left behind alone to run their household livelihood. Tofeed their families, women mostly borrow loan from neighbours in high interest rate.When the food runs out, they even sell their livestock like chicken, goats. When theirmale counterpart returns home with some earning, majority of the earned amount haveto be used to payback the loan including the interest.Women during the discussions opined that the production is continuously decreasingwhile investment in agriculture is increasing. This is also the demand of time. The 49
  • 50. investment in agriculture is often risky due to unpredicted climatic conditions. Thegrowing population pressure results in heavy encroachment along the riverbank(Gautam et al, 2007). Gautam (2007c) found in Banke and Bardiya that family roles andresponsibilities undergo considerable change with worsened economic hardship andliving conditions. It was also found that during the relocation, people are unable toadopt parma system to ease the situation in the study area. The flood-affected familieswere reported to be living with relatives, some as welcomed and some as unwantedguests hence creating space in social milieu of kinship.5.1.2 Adaptation strategiesa. Farm off-seasonal and alternative crop varietiesIn order to escape from continuous crop failure from unusual rain and frequentdroughts, people are forced to seek some alternatives. For instance, some people havebeen trying to reduce the paddy land and introduce vegetables and other crops that areless susceptible with flooding and droughts in additional land. Cauliflower, cabbage,chilli, tomato and cucumber are widely cultivated as alternative options to paddy.In general, off-seasonal vegetable farming and maize are the common practices ofcultivation. In some area, people cultivate Box 11: New skills and knowledge are neededsunflower, banana in commercial scale We have been practicing our cultivation frame with changing aspects of climate. In the past, we used toand NTFPs as an alternative crops. plant our crops after the first rains, but since we started experiencing frequent droughts and floods, we areIn addition to these, changes in crops and planting our crops much earlier. This is to allow thecrop varieties, crop diversification and crops to meet the first rains with the hope that they will mature before the end of the rainy season and todevelopment of genetically adaptive prevent the crops from being washed away by thevarieties could be other adaptation floods. But these tricks have been ineffective in thestrategies. recent years. The changing nature of mausam has also forced to adoptb. Establishment of dairy cooperative off-seasonal and alternative crop varieties in order to getThe practice of stall feeding is widely more yield. We are also seeking new alternative opportunities. The establishment of dairy cooperative,adopted in study area when the yields of gaining new skills, initiating community based micro-conventional crops are continuously credit programs are some of the very importantreduced. The development of dairy is the activities. We think, it is too risky to totally rely in crop production.new initiative in the study area. Now, -Ms Mahili Bhat Chhetri, Subarnakhalselling milk is one of the potentialoccupations.c. Capacity building in new skillsPeople have been motivated to learn new skills and knowledge. It is not only interestbut the demand of time. People have developed the skills and initiated the work incommercial approach. 50
  • 51. With the training in different off-farm activities, either people are engaged in thecottage industries within the village or going abroad for employment in Arabiancountries and India. This is the reason that youth force in the remote village no longerexists in the village.c. Accommodate in the crop growing seasonChanges in rainfall have resulted in changes in crops grown. For example, maize usedto be grown in April, but it is now being grown in November-December.Before 1992, the paddy transplantation work used to begin from 1st August to 15thSeptember but now this work is completed within 15th July because of narrow rainyseason. The cultivated season is also narrowing.People are not willing to carry out these practices but the changing climate has forcedthem to do so. For instance, late cultivation of paddy hampered the cultivation seasonof wheat and mustard. In the other hand, people used to transplant hybrid paddy quietearlier otherwise it is affected by insecticide and pests. All these practices are carriedout on the basis of experiences.People now opt for short-season hybrid varieties because the growing season is shorter.Rainfall patterns have hindered the growing of long-season local indigenous varieties ofcrops. The short duration radish and carrot are common in these days.f. Initiate community based micro-credit programsIn each village, saving and credit initiatives are grooming in the recent years. Theseinitiatives are especially targeted to escape from expensive interest rate in the village. Ininitiating small enterprises at local level, and managing agri-inputs (seed, tools,fertilizer, pesticides, etc) on time, people use the credit facilities. Apart from theseinitiatives, people are also engaged in vegetable farming, bee keeping, goat raising,poultry farming, etc with minimal credit mobilization. These initiatives are supportiveto minimize the risks of crop failure and extreme weather shocks.These groups are also managing the institutional support in the group approach fromGOs and NGOs sectors. For instance, in Motipur and Kopuwa VDCs of Kapilvastu,these groups are receiving the seed grants for cereal crop demonstration, treadle pump,potato and onion seed in 50% subsidy rate. Apart from these, these groups also receivedRs 40,000 from DADO for irrigation, Rs 25,000 from APPSP for seed sprayer medicine,training and cash support for semi incredible groups from GTZ, Minikit distributionfrom agriculture support centre Kupowa,g. Adopt improved agriculture practicesIn the upper catchments area, the slash and burn practices are widely adopted. Theseare also the reasons for landslides and erosion. In the downstream, due to improper 51
  • 52. water management and irrigation facilities, flooding and inundation problems areexperienced. These disasters also hamper the good farming system.5.2. Animal HusbandryAnimal husbandry is the second important occupation in the remote village afteragriculture. There were no diseases in livestock until 1993. After the use of pesticidesand insecticides in crop, grass and straw are also contaminated. These contaminatedfeed are the source of diseases. The contaminated water is other reason. New diseases inpoultry are common. Goats have been suffering from PPR diseases. These new diseasesare attributed by local people to the results of changing climate system.5.2.1 Impact of Climate Change in Animal HusbandryLike agriculture sector, the changesin climatic conditions also hamper Box 12: Changing climate worsen the animal husbandrythe animal husbandry in great practices Animal husbandry has been important source of income of ruralextent. Some of the prominent people since long. But, the rural economy is getting meager dueimpacts include: to reduction in animal husbandry practices. More flood, river banks are silted by sand, stone and boulders has caused reduction in grazing land. As a result, livestock farming is in decreasinga. Reduction in grazing land order because of the scarcity of grass, forest, grazing land andIn the past, there was a general labor.practice of farming more livestock Not only the scarcity of grazing land, are we also continuouslyfor milk, meat and manure. The suffering from new diseases in livestock. In our experiences, it isnumber of livestock was often due to use of insecticides and pesticides. We are not received anyconsidered on of the indicators of technical advice. No JTA visited our village to help us. Our goats are suffering from many diseases. We assumed that there is apeoples well-being and there was poisonous grass in the forest. In the past some beneficial NTFPplenty of grazing land. Shifting balance those poisonous grass but now there is no NTFPs in thegrazing practice was in place fro forest. NTFPs are illegally harvested. Once our livestock are suffering from diseases, we started to cut and eat. That’s why weSiwalik to inner Tarai. are suffering from many diseases.But now, willingness to produce During last 10-14 years the extent of disease in livestock is in increasing order but we got nothing from agriculture supportmore ghee from livestock is centre as our livelihood entirely depends upon agriculture andstrange. The changing climatic livestock. So, we need more support from technician.pattern has significantly reduced Unfortunately we never see the technician because we are livingthe grazing land along the river in remote areas. The occurrence of thick fog in the Tarai area has also forced to close shifting livestock grazing.bank due to frequent flood and -Mr. Bali Ram Majhi, Niglihawasedimentation along it. The bigfloods with boulders make the river bank desertified. Now, there is no more grazingarea. The forest along the village is also converted in to community forest. In manyplaces, forest land is turned into farming land.For instance, due to the river erosion, seven families from Loharibagiya, Kopuwa weremigrated to Madhuban, Motipur because they were unable to raise their livestock. Now 52
  • 53. some families again have come back to the previous settlements as the river has leftsome land along the riverbank which can be utilized for livestock raising.Due to increasing frequency of natural disaster like landslide and river side pollution,many people have migrated from hills. The population pressure in Tarai also hasreduced the grazing land. In the other hand, due to loss of green patches along the riverbank, livestock rearing is decreasing. Likewise, due to reduction in grazing land, peopleare practicing limited livestock farming using stall feeding system. The practice oftending hybrid varieties of livestock is also common. For instance, in Tarai, the cowrearing has reduced and subsequently animal manure has also reduced.b. High mortality of livestockUntil 2048-50BS (…AD), the number of poultry and goat each farming household keptwas more than at the moment. People are now reluctant to increase commercialfarming of these livestock because of unidentified diseases. The common diseases inlivestock are vyagute, khoret, mate, padake, charchare, paralysis, stomach swelling,ganghuti, fever, worm, etc. PPR and bird flu are new diseases. People linked that theaccess uses of pesticides and insecticides in the crops with limited other climaticconstraints are root cause of livestock deaths.The condition of high temperature and extreme cold are unfavourable for livestock.These situations often invite the favourable environment for communicable diseases inlivestock. People reported that the mortality rate of livestock is especially high after1991-93.c. Closure of shifting livestock grazingBefore 1988, there was a practice of shifting livestock rearing from Siwalik to inner Taraiduring winter. That was a popular practice. The period was from November toFebruary in each year. It was believed that inner Tarai is very potential for livestockgrazing. In fact, buffalos and cows used to give Box 13: People have shifted to improvedmore milk once they were grazed in nutritious varieties of livestockgrassland. The Gothala (cow boys) used to collect One of is introduction of improved varieties climate the benefits of changing pattern ofghee, sale and procure rice. Sometimes they used of livestock in the village. Jursi Gai andto barter rice and turmeric with ghee. The other Murra Bhainsee (cow and buffaloes) varietiespurpose of the shifting livestock was to involve in of improved keeping many common. The practices of livestock are unproductivebuy and sale of livestock. livestocks like cows have been drastically reduced.But now this popular practice is closed. We are now trying to resume grazing land byContinuous thick fog during winter and changes reclaiming the degraded land along the riverin climate induced disease, have reduced people’s bank. The another aspect to adopt the new initiatives is introduction of agro-forestrywillingness to take risk. Due to pala and thick fog environment.during winter, many livestock have fallen ill. Now -Mr. Damodar Acharya, Motipurmajority of the cow boys are working in Arabian countries. 53
  • 54. 5.2.2 Adaptation strategiesThe following are some of the adaptation practices to minimize the impacts of climatechange on animal husbandry.a. Raise improved varieties of livestockWith the changing pattern of climate, people prefer to raise improved variety oflivestock instead of local. Now the emphasis is given to milk than compost manure.Jursi Gai and Murra Bhainsee varieties of improved livestock are common. More milkgiving livestock are popular because selling milk is very easier because of dairydevelopment.With the few numbers of livestock, there is no need of grazing land. Stall feedingpractice is largely practiced. There is increasing trend of replacing unproductivelivestock with improved varieties of livestock.Similarly, cultivating new varieties of grass and fodder in private land is also popular.The new varieties like NB 21, Napier, Amrisho, epil-epil, fast growing bamboo, etc arecommon. Similarly, the promotion of private agro-forestry initiatives at local level isalso increasing now.b. Reclaim the degraded land along the river bankWith the continuous flood, the river banks are like desserts. Now, people have groupapproach to reclaim the degraded land for fodder promotion, income generationactivities through cash crops and community plantation through community forestapproach. In many places, people are being involved in group approach for the best useof degraded land. These initiatives have become the source of income for poor peopleliving along the river bank in one hand and fodder supplement for livestock on theother hand.5.3 Human HealthSeveral studies opined that with global warming, it will lead to serious impacts onhuman health. These effects will be direct and indirect. Indirect effects will happenbecause of the close relationship between climatic conditions and insects and rodentpopulations. This in turn will affect diseases such as asthma, as well as increase therange of vector-borne parasitic diseases like malaria and Japanese Encephalitis,leishmaniasis, etc. Food-borne diseases are likely to increase as a result of warmertemperatures. Water-borne diseases may also increase because of extra demands ondiminished water supplies, which will in turn increase the risk of contaminatedsupplies reaching the public. According to the World Health Organisation, UNEP, andthe World Meteorological Program, at least 150,000 people die unnecessarily each yearas a direct result of global warming. Warmer and wetter conditions could triggerunprecedented levels of disease outbreaks in both humans and the natural world. 54
  • 55. The same study further found that the direct effects of global warming will include heatstress, with associated cardio-vascular effects, as well as the physical and psychologicalimpact of storms, floods and other extreme weather events. Adoption of the climate-policy scenario was estimated to avoid 700,000 premature deaths each year as a result ofreduced particulate pollution with the greatest effect in developing countries.Global warming is expected to exposemillions of people to new health risks. Box 14: New diseases are the product of chemicalThe most vulnerable to ill health are those fertilizer and insecticides Due to excess use of bikasi mal (chemical fertilizer),communities living in poverty, those with angreji aauisadhi (insecticide) and environmentala high incidence of under nutrition, and pollution, newly born babies have been increasinglythose with a high level of exposure to suffering from jaundice, dysentery, and diarrhea and skin disease. We never suffered to this scale in the past.infectious diseases. The current lack of -Ms Shova Chauwan, Niglihawa-6, Jarlaiyaprimary healthcare for large portions ofthe population also contributes to their vulnerability in this sector to future climatechange.The impact of global warming is clearly observed in human health in the study area.The areas that were once free of malaria now have become susceptible as local climatehas changed and safe drinking water has become harder to get. There has also been anoticeable increase in diseases such as cholera and dysentery associated with changes inrainfall patterns.The proven studies highlighted that the risk of Malaria, Kala-azar, Japanese encephalitisand mosquito are common with climate change scenarios for Nepal. The subtropicaland warm temperate regions of Nepal would be particularly vulnerable to Malaria andKala-azar. Similarly, an increase of temperature would make the subtropical region ofNepal more vulnerable to Japanese encephalitis. Alam and Regmi (2004) found thatwith warming of higher altitudes, it has been predicted that there may be an increasedspread of lower altitude disease vectors such as mosquitoes and consequent spread ofmalaria, Kala-azar and Japanese encephalitis in such regions. Following table providesinformation on the predicted impacts of climate change in the human health: Health concerns Vulnerabilities due to climate change Temperature related Clear heat and cold related illness morbidity Cardio vascular illness Vector borne diseases Changed patterns of diseases by region and by climate parameter Malaria, filaria, kala-azar, Japanese encephalitis, and dengue caused by bacteria, virus, and pathogens like mosquitoes and ticks Health effects of extreme Diarrhoea, Cholera and intoxication caused by biological and weather chemical contaminants in water. 55
  • 56. Damaged public health infrastructure due to cyclones / floods Injuries and illness Social and mental health stress due to disasters and displacement Health effects due to Malnutrition, hunger, particularly in children insecurity in food productionSource: Climate Change Impacts on Human Health in India, National Physical Lab, New Delhi5.3.1 Impact of climate change on Human HealthThe impact of climate change is directly impacted in the human health. Some of theimpacts that experienced by the people in the study area are discussed below.a. Birth of abnormal childrenDrought and erratic rainfall provoked food crises resulting less nutritious foodavailability for pregnant women. In other words, malnutrition of pregnant women hasresulted disability with weak eye sight and abnormal health condition of newly bornbabies.Some people opined that with the use of excess pesticide content vegetables and fruits,the pregnant women are particularly affected and the impacts are reflected in abnormalbirth of children.b. Explosion of vector borne diseasesAs noted earlier, the subtropical and warm temperate regions of Nepal are beingvulnerable to Malaria, Japanese Encephalitis and Kala-azar. Many vector-borne diseasesare known to be sensitive to changes in climatic conditions. The increase of mosquito isobserved especially after 1997 in project areas. People still remembered that before 1993,there was no need of mosquito nets in any of their communities.Temperatures between 22 and 32º C are very favorable for Malaria diseases to developand complete their cycle, while those above 32-34º C could reduce their survival ratessubstantially. Thus the range of temperatures in Nepal is suitable for the Malariaparasites to exist and develop. Kala-azar (Visceral leishmaniasis) cases have also shownan increasing trend in the last two decades. This trend has become more pronounced inthe recent years.As water- and heat-related diseases increase because of climate change, women willbear the extra burden of increased care giving and increased threats to their own health.The World Health Organisation states that, “Changes in climate are likely to lengthen thetransmission seasons of important vector-borne diseases, and to alter their geographic range,potentially bringing them to regions that lack population immunity and/or a strong publichealth infrastructure.” Malaria is one example of a vector-borne disease that is likely to 56
  • 57. increase due to climate change, particularly as a result of increased temperatures andrainfall.Pregnant women are particularly vulnerable because they attract malaria-carryingmosquitoes at twice the rate of non-pregnant women. Moreover, pregnancy reduces awoman’s immunity to malaria, making her more susceptible to infection and increasingher risk of illness, severe anaemia and sometimes eventual death. Maternal malariaincreases the risk of spontaneous abortion, premature delivery, stillbirth and low birthweight – a leading cause of child mortality (Mitchell et al., 2007).In this context, it is unsurprising that besides the material losses, women have to copewith the psychosocial impacts of the floods. In the research areas in Nepal, Gautam(2007) observed that people were Box 15: Explosions of new diseases are as a result ofsuffering from anxiety and lack of sleep changing mausamand generally feeling desperate and In the past, there was no problem of communicablehelpless. Families often had to relocate, diseases even though there were no toilets but now each house has its own toilet and the practice of opensometimes permanently, to safer grounds defecation is also reduced. Yet the extent and magnitudeduring the flood season. This has created of communicable diseases is more compared to pasta severe impact on social support years. We are surprised on explosion of vector borne diseases and spread of water borne diseases. Many casesnetworks and family ties which help of abnormal children birth are experienced in the villagewomen to cope better. The evidence from in the recent years. In my view, explosions of newthis research suggests that this is common diseases are as a result of changing mausam. -Mr Bhoj Raj Pokherel, Simalpani-5, Paworaacross all flood-affected areas. Thepsychosocial effects of disasters are of course not limited to women, but in their role ofcare-givers, they have the extra burden of looking after their other family members evenwhen they themselves are in great distress, especially when support groups are notavailable.It was perceived that high humidity creates a favourable environment for the growth offungal and bacterial diseases. It was also seen that in hope of better production, womenstarted to use more chemical fertilizer, and engaged in haphazard use of insecticidesand pesticides without consultation with relevant technicians. The reduction in compostmanure is due to decline in household (HH) labour force in the recent years and itsimpact was reduction in number of livestock. This is primarily because of nuclearfamily structures, tendency of seasonal labour abroad and because of minimal grazingarea (Gautam et al, 2007).c. Spread of water borne diseasesIt is well-known fact that flooding and inundation contaminate the water sources indifferent forms. For instance, when drinking water is mixed with open defecation andsewerage, it will contaminate drinking water sources and people using the pollutedwater suffer from many water-borne diseases. 57
  • 58. In the study area, people experienced growing water-borne diseases like dysentery,diarrhoea, dengue, fever, common-cold, jaundice, skin disease, eye infections, etc as aresult of flooding and inundation as well as longer droughts. As a result, people opinethat they are exposed to new healthrisks. Many water-borne infectious Box 16: Health awareness is only the important adaptation practicediseases are known to be sensitive to In my opinion, with the growing number of NGOs andchanges in climatic conditions. These CBOs, people have been enriched with health awarenessdiseases also increase because of extra activities with information on symptoms of various communicable diseases and ways to treat those diseasesdemands on diminished water supplies, with community efforts. The improvement of health andwhich will in turn increase the risk of sanitation at individual, family and community level hascontaminated supplies reaching the helped us to fight against these diseases. But, interestingly, we have been facing new diseases. I dont know why thesepublic. diseases are spreading but these are the challenges for us. Mr. Keshav Giri, Balapur, MotipurDuring longer droughts, people havereported to suffer from new diseases. People also have experienced that the hair lossand hair whitening cases are also as a result of changing climate.5.2.2 Adaptation strategiesa. Conduct awareness programLocal NGOs have been imparting various awareness programs to increase healthawareness especially for communicable diseases. These initiatives are useful to reducethe impacts of health hazards resulted from climate change.b. Use of mosquito net and manage clean environmentIn the study VDCs of Kapilvastu, in each monsoon, people have been suffering fromMalaria, Kala-azar and Japanese Encephalitis. People from their own initiative tried tospread DDT to control these diseases. Use of mosquito net, managing cleanenvironment around the houses are some of the other adaptation practices.5.4 Water ResourcesNepal is one of the richest countries in water resources. The monsoon contributessignificantly in water regime of the country. As a result, several sources of water in theform of glaciers, snow pack, groundwater, and river networks exist in Nepal. Thecountry has about 6000 rivers and streams including 3 major river basins: Sapta Kosi inthe east, Karnali in the west and Sapta Gandaki in the central part the country(Upadhyay, 2000). The annual run-off from the total drained areas is estimated to be 202billion m3. The contribution from the Nepalese territory accounts to an annual run-offof 170 billion m3. About 4063 sq km is estimated to be covered by surface water, ofwhich 97.3 percent is under the large rivers followed by natural lakes (1.2 %), ponds (1.2%) and reservoirs (0.3 %) (HMG, 1992). The area under snow and ice is 17,920 km2,which represents about 13 percent of the countrys total area (WECS, 1988). 58
  • 59. Nepals Tarai belt has rechargeable ground water potential, which occurs in bothartesian and non-artesian aquifers (WECS, 2002). The theoretical potential on the basisof average flow is estimated to be 83000 MW electricity (Shrestha, 1968), out of which44,600 MW has been assessed to be technically feasible, while 42,130 MW (50.6 Percent)could be economically harnessed (Sharma and Adhikari, 1990).The vast water resource potential of Nepal has considerable importance in the economicdevelopment of the country. However, Nepalese river basins spread over such diverseand extreme geographical and climatic condition that the potential benefits of water areaccompanied by risks. Besides, climate change could add a new dimension to watermanagement: the availability of only 26 km 3 water out of total water (202 km3) in dryseason shows that water scarcity is imminent in Nepal unless water resources areproperly managed.Anticipated changes in hydrological cycle and the depletion of water resourcestherefore are some of the top environmental challenges Nepal is going to face due toClimate Change. The water related problems as such are likely to be more severe inAsian countries like Nepal where the monsoon, characterized by high precipitationvariability, is the dominating climatic force (Sharma, 1993).Many studies have opined that the changes in temperature and precipitation alter thehydrological cycle and water resources. The total water reserve capacity is 200 billionm3, and runoff provides 72% of water reserve (144 billion m3) while snow provides12% (24 billion m3). In addition, the mean monthly discharges show that globalwarming would shift the peak discharge month from August to July, due to the fact thatthe snow cover on mountaintops would melt earlier. This could lead to increasedflooding and more pronounced variations in water availability throughout the year inthe downstream.In Nepal, glaciers have been retreating rapidly for the past few decades because ofrising temperatures. A UNEP/ICIMOD study in 2001 has identified 3,252 glaciers and2,323 glacial lakes in Nepal. Among them, 20 lakes are in risk of bursting in five to tenyears time with catastrophic results unless urgent actions are taken.Climate change impacts on water resources will affect Nepal through a number ofways, including disasters, irrigation, and domestic water usage. These changes, in turn,could place additional burdens not only the livelihoods of communities in highlandregions but equally in the middle mountain and the Tarai. 59
  • 60. 5.4.1 Impact of climate change in Water ResourcesWater is the largest natural resource of Nepal. The country’s water requirements coverdrinking water and personal Box 17: Water resources are continuously depletinghygiene, religious activities, We are continuously suffering from drinking water during longeragriculture, industrial droughts because all the hand pumps are dried out. It also hampered artesian borings. Due to continuous droughts, level of ground water isproduction, hydropower also lowering. Many farmer managed irrigation systems in the hills aregeneration, and recreational becoming defunct. Wetlands are also threatened in the Tarai.activities such as swimming In the recent years, because of the longer droughts, people areand fishing,. There is a growing compelled to broadcast maize in Asadh instead of Chaitra end. Now,pressure on water resources we can not predict for the occurrence of droughts. In the past, if theredue to the growth of the was spider net every where, cloud blowing from west to east, thunderpopulation, expansion of storm towardsthesesouth, these have now failed. considered for longer droughts. But the predictions symptoms wereirrigation systems forincreasing agricultural Before 30 years, the amount of rainfall was more so that we could produce charuwa paddy. Now because of the changing pattern ofproduction. climate, all of lakes and ponds are becoming dried up. As the forest is continuously depleting, the amount of rainfall is also decreasing. WeLike other sectors, the changing have estimated that there is only 40% of rainfall as compared to 30 years ago. In the past, rain occurred for full of four months.patterns of climate in recent -Mr Gunanidhi Bhattrai, Kopuwadecades have hampered thewater resources sector severely. Some of the pertinent issues shared by the peopleduring study are presented below.a. Lowering the level of ground waterThe changes in temperature and precipitation are responsible to alter the hydrologicalcycle and water resources. Until 1977, the artesian borings were successful even in 110feet depth but now it needs at least 165 feet to receive good discharge. People felt thatthe layer of groundwater was drastically lowering.With the lowering of the ground water, its direct impact is in the functionality of handpumps. About 40% hand pumps are defunct during April-June each year. Only thosehand pumps installed by FINNIDA are functional during longer droughts because oftheir greater depth.Apart from hand pumps, many traditional and religious wells have completely driedup. Ponds have been unable to hold more water due to over siltation. People opinedthat the reduction in number of day rain, and flood induced disasters and erraticrainfall disturbs natural recharge system. There is poor correlation between dischargeand recharge. With erratic rainfall pattern, people have experienced more discharge andless recharge. Its impact is seen in the ground water. 60
  • 61. b. Defunct farmer managed irrigation systemsThe farmers managed irrigation systems in the Siwalik and even in the Tarai area areeffective means for irrigation. Due to low cost and based on the indigenous technology,people have been operating these systems since generation. But now, these systems areperceived to be at risks due to climate change.Now, these systems have been facing frequent floods and longer droughts. The bigfloods have destroyed the physical set-up whereas the longer droughts have reducedthe water discharge in the rivers. As the frequency of droughts is also increasing, morelikely threats in the coming days are expected. The upper watershed of each river is alsodepleted in the recent years hence continuously dried many water sources. The poorrecharge is also the reason for dried up water sources.It is estimated that about 30% FMISs in study area are defunct and its rate iscontinuously increasing. Local people attribute to changing climate and associatedcauses.c. Threatening of the wetlandsIn the recent decades, due to climatechange, river basins and wetlands are Box 18: Efforts are initiated to protect water resourcesbecoming damaged. As a result, they are As the problems are growing up as a result of waternot able to provide water supply of source depletion, we are now involved in the protectionadequate quality and quantity to maintain of watershed to retain the water resources. The idea of community forest was very successful in this respect.vital ecosystems. Similarly, many traditional ponds/water bodies are now being rehabilitated to resume the monsoon water so thatAs noted earlier, more discharge and poor it could be used in the winter. New initiatives like sprinkle irrigation in the hills and drip irrigation in therecharge is one of the reasons for drying Tarai are initiated to increase irrigation efficiency. Wemany wetlands. Its direct impact is in think these are the demands of time.aquatic life including fisheries. The -Mr Chhabilal Karki, Subarnakhal-1fishery is one of the vital sources of livelihood of many indigenous caste people and thisis at risks. Many aquatic animals are now endangered affecting the balanced eco-system.With the depletion of wetland resources, the social attachments of people for recreation,religious activities, livelihood, etc. are at risks.5.4.2 Adaptation strategiesThe following are some of the practices that are being adopted by people as part ofadaptation strategies for water resources.a. Protection of watershed to retain the water resourcesOnce the watershed resources are depleted by the human activities along with physicalfactors, regeneration practices are now being performed. This includes: control of open 61
  • 62. grazing, setting strict rules and regulation, social fencing, provision of kanji house,communityplantation of fast growing species, etc. Protection of water sources in manyplaces is resumed in the recent years.b. Rehabilitation of traditional ponds/water bodiesThe traditional ponds are being abandoned in many places. Some ponds are filled bysitation, others are either encroached or have dried up. But now with the implicationmade by the absence of traditional ponds, people are building awareness on theimportance of traditional ponds. Now people in many placed have started to harvestmonsoon rain that later could be used in feeding and swimming for livestock. In someplaces of Tarai, pond water is being lifted by pump set for irrigation and used duringout break of fire. The physical set up of ponds are upgraded by raising the bank ofponds and plantation along the river bank.c. Promote afforestation and conservationIn Nepal, from 1979-1998, a study showed that the forested area decreased by one third.Its implication was also shared in the study area. When the Churia hills and the forestarea near the village in Tarai become inhabitant by poor, people have started to protectthem by their own initiatives. The protection of forests was supportive to increase wateravailability in dry season. The people of Kapilbastu shared that it has also reducedlandslides and erosion, and enhanced the local biodiversity.d. Alternative measures to increase irrigation efficiencyBased on the past experiences, people in the study area have started to initiate dipborings, artesian borings, sprinklers, etc to increase irrigation efficiency. It is said thatsprinkle would increase the efficiency by 50% over surface irrigation, although itinvolves greater capital investments and is not suitable for paddy. Installing dripnetworks to supply water directly to roots is another measure, but is feasible only forextremely dry conditions due to the high costs. But the increased efficiency can help toexpand the irrigated area.5.5 Forest ResourcesStudies found that about 350 million of the world’s rural poor and forest-dwellingindigenous peoples depend on forests for their home, livelihoods, and energy supply.Forests contain literally millions of types of flora and fauna, as much as 90 per cent ofthe world’s land-based species. But industrial logging has resulted in the lands ofindigenous peoples being overrun, forests being destroyed, and cultural traditionsthreatened in a continuous manner.About 80 percent of the population of Nepal depends on the forests for daily fuel woodsupply and 42 percent on the fodder for livestock as these are extracted from the forest(WECS, 1997). Therefore, forest stands as one of the most important natural resources tomeet the basic needs of firewood, fodder and timber of the people. The land resource 62
  • 63. map of the country has revealed that cultivated land covers about 20 percent of the totalland, forest 29 percent, grassland covers 12 percent, shrub lands 11 percent, and othercategories like rocks, snow lands and settlements make up the rest. Of the totalforestland, 35 percent is in the hills and one-third in the mountain region (UNEP, 2001).Global Warming may cause forest damage through migration towards the upperregion, changes in their composition, extinction of species etc. Observations andexperiments demonstrate that an increase of just 10o C in global average temperaturewould affect the composition and functioning of forests (Trobe, 2002).Forest constitutes Nepals largest natural resource in terms of coverage. The annualdeforestation rate on average is estimated to be 1.7 percent with 2.3 percent in the hillsand 1.3 percent in the Tarai (FRIS, 1999). Similarly, the growing stocks of forest havedeclined from 522 million m3 in mid- 1980s to 387.5 million m3 in 1999.Article 2 of the Kyoto Protocol spelled out that industrialised countries shall“implement and/or further elaborate policies and measures… such as… promotion ofsustainable forest management practices, afforestation and reforestation” in helping tolimit and reduce their greenhouse gas emissions.Now, the degradation of the environment through poor land use and deforestation is aserious concern. People have clear ideas about implications of these activities throughmore floods and droughts but have failed to take more concrete initiatives as there arefew alternatives.If there is thick forest, the first flood takes good soil with water which is consideredvery fertile and the rain is also on time, with reduced droughts. But due to continuousdepletion of forest resources, people have to face more water induced disaster events inthe recent years. Bhandari (2007) opines that over the past decades people haveexperienced summer hotter and winter less coldly as compared to previous decades.People perceive that these adversities have become worse due to deforestation aroundthe area in the recent past.5.5.1 Impact of climate change on Forest ResourcesFollowing section deals about the immediate impacts of climate change in forestresources.a. Forest resources depletion from unidentified diseasesThe forest resources are continuously depleting. For this, both human and physicalenvironment is responsible. Landless people in many places encroached the forest inone hand and in the absence of political bodies in the village; illegal timber extractorsdestroy the rich resources of forest. The forest during 2036-046BS (…AD) was heavilycleared. 63
  • 64. In the recent decades, the unidentified diseases and thick fog also hamper the growth offorest resources. For instance, Sisau, Imili, Epil-epil and Kimbu are badly affected bydiseases. Many hectors of Sisau forest has now completely dried up. The growth rate offorest resources has declined. The growth rate of sapling is decreasing because ofdrought and cold. Due to less rains in the recent years, stem of sal trees is found hollow.People said that these are due to longer droughts and high temperatures.b. Depletion of forest resourcesThe changes in vegetation in upper catchments have created the adverse effects in thedownstream. Vegetation patterns would be altered by changes in temperature andprecipitation, which in turn would affect biodiversity in forests.Due to more temperature and droughts, the cases of more forest fire are recorded. Firesdestroy the young plants and dried old tress.The pattern of erratic rain in the recent years invites the water induced disasters likelandslides and soil erosion in the hills and flooding, inundation, river bank erosion,river cutting, sedimentation, etc in the flat land Tarai. These different forms of disasterare responsible for the depletion of forest resources in many places.In the study areas, people reported that there are old trees which are ready to harvestbut there are no young trees to supplement the forest resources. As a result, moreproblems will be visualized in the immediate future.c. More pressure on forest products as fuel energyForests are the largest natural resources in terms of area coverage. A majority of thepeople in the study area use the products offorests for firewood, fodder, timber, and Box 19: Forest resource are becoming less for growing populationmedicines though NTFPs. Over grazing practices In the past, there was plenty of Jymir in theadd the pressure on forest resources. forests but it is a kind of tale story for us. This may be the impact of poor rain and longer droughts.Due to water induced disasters, many people inthe hills and people living along the river bank Before 20 years, we used to use NTFP whenin Tarai have became landless. Poor and forest- we were suffering from any diseases but now the effectiveness of NTFP is also decreasing.dwelling indigenous peoples depend on forests Now we are compelled to use Englishfor their home, livelihoods, and energy supply. medicine when we become sick. Forest resources like Sisau are continuously depleting from unidentified diseases. With the increase inUntil recently, in Tarai, bullock cart was population, more pressure is on forestconsidered one of the indicators of well being. products as fuel energy. If such trendsThe collection of firewood, timber, fodder, etc continue, we will not get any forest resource from the jungle (forest).using bullock cart is also the reason for more -Ms Mathura Gautam, Motipur-8, Dhodekolpressure on forest. 64
  • 65. d. Extinct of NTFPsIn the past, forests were very rich along with varieties of NTFPs. Local treatmentsystem, which was very effective, largely depends upon the NTFPs. Even the cancerdiseases are treated through NTFPs. Now the availability of NTFP is decreasingcontinuously.People in the study area opined that many NTFPs cannot survive in the changingclimatic condition. With the increase of temperature and droughts as well as thick fog inthe winter, many NTFPs have become extinct. The NTFPs have declined with thedepletion of forest resources. Illegal and poor harvesting is another factor for theirextinct.5.5.2 Adaptation strategiesa. Alternative energy promotionWith the depletion of forest resources in many places, now people have been usingburning of cow dung especially in the Tarai. Alternative energy technologies like bio-gas, solar home system (SHS), improved cooking stove, micro-hydro, etc are in wideuse. However, the majority of people are at risk as they are too poor to change to acleaner fuel, or to have access to modern fuels.b. Plantation of fast growing trees including bambooPromotion of agro-forestry activities in the private land is the recent practice. Peoplehave been selecting fast growing tress that are both feasible for fodder and fire wood.Epil-epil, kimbu, bamboo, etc are some of themost popular trees in these days. Box 20: The use of poison and changing climate threaten the biodiversity In the recent years, catch fish is done throughc. Practice of community forest poison. There is a rule to penalize the personConverting government owned forest along the who is involved in fishing by poison (Rs 2000)village and forest interface is new practice but the people from Kapilvastu used to come at night for fishing illegally. Despite of severalthrough community managed forest concept. It efforts, we are unable to control illegal fishingwas possible to conserve, manage and use the by poisoning. Our livestock are compelled toforest resource without hampering the natural drink poisonous water. So 40-50 goats and chickens die every year from poisonous water.forest set-up once the forest is under community It has impacted on aquatic animals.ownership. Due to changing climatic conditions, there is threat to bees and beekeeping business. ThereThe community forest users groups (CFUGs) are were many birds that are no more seen now.increasing. It was possible to promote greenery, About 22-24 varieties of birds including Lalsor,increase ownership, construct fire line, build the Tikiya, Panihaash are in Jagadishpur wetland but 65% birds have disappeared.capacity of CFUGs, control slash and burn -Ms Basundhara Karki, Simalpani-5, Paworapractices/khoriya cultivation, etc after handoverof the management of forest in the hand ofcommunity. Stall feeding, tree and grass fodder production, improvement in the 65
  • 66. livestock breeds and bio-engineering activities are other inputs to conserve the forestlandscape. Gautam (2007a) has found that people in the eastern region of Nepal haveadequate knowledge, skills and information about the bioengineering techniques likebamboo spur since generation. This is the reason that, for instance in Jhapa, peopleadvocate to grow kass along the river bank and this initiative is very much successful tosave the rive bank from erosion. In the study area also, community forest is becomingpopular.5.6 BiodiversityRich biodiversity and natural beauty are some of the key factors that are helpful toattract tourists. In unprotected public areas, habitats have suffered great threat as aresult of loss or alteration, over-extraction, illegal collection of species, poaching orhunting of wild animals, over-grazing, fire, and commercial trade.Nepal is also rich in fascinating biological diversity. Nepal occupies only 0.03 percent ofthe total surface of the earth (MoPE, 2001) and covers 0.1percent of the worlds landarea but has high representation of biotic diversity. It claims 9.3 percent of bird, 4.5percent of mammal, 2 percent of reptiles, 6 percent of butterfly, 1.0 percent of fish andover 2.0 percent of the flowering plant species of the world.This richness of species can be attributed to the immense physical and climatic variationof the land. The immense bio-climatic diversity in Nepal supports more than 35 foresttypes (Stainton, 1972). They are home to 5833 species of flowering plants, includingabout 248 species of endemic plant and 700 species of medicinal plants. Nepalslandmass is also home to 185 species of mammals, 847 species of birds, 645 species ofbutterflies, 170 species of fish and other animals (MoPE, 2001).Forests contain millions of types of flora and fauna. With the depletion of forestresources, these flora and fauna are at risks. Nepal has a striking variety of species,including 60 that are currently endangered. One study has inferred that 2.4% ofbiodiversity may be lost with climate change (Regmi and Adhikari, 2007).Majorities of the people rely on forest products such as firewood, food, fodder, timberand medicines. Its extensive utilization and increasing demand has led to a decline bothin area and quality. Global warming may cause forest damage through mitigation offorests towards the polar region, change in their composition and extinction of species.This could affect not only on Nepal’s biodiversity but the livelihoods of people. Tropicalwet forests and warm temperate rain forests would disappear, and cool temperatevegetation would turn to warm temperate vegetation. Vegetation patterns would bedifferent under the incremental scenario (at 2ºC rise of temperature and 20 percent riseof rainfall) than the existing types. Thus, climate change will have a direct impact onvegetation, biodiversity and even wildlife. 66
  • 67. 5.6.1 Impact of Climate Change in Biodiversitya. Impact on aquatic animalsThe water induced disasters as a result of climate change have hampered the water eco-system in the river. Due to over sedimentation and siltation, many deep parts of therivers in the study area have risen. Deep parts are considered the habitat of aquaticanimals including fishes. The siltation also has hampered the natural food like fungi inthe river. The shortage of food and reduction in water volume in the river in winter, haskept life of many aquatic animals at risks.According to the local people in Kapilbastu, the practice of killing fish with theapplication of pesticide/poison is another reason for deteriorating the river eco-system.Its impact is negative health hazards to livestock, birds and human beings. Now, fishesand other aquatic animals are decreasing.b. Threatening of beesThe increasing temperature and global warming has posed farmers to use pesticidesand chemical fertilizer in the crops to get more yield to compromise other climaticrequirements. It is considered that the mortality rate of bees and other beneficial insectsis increasing due to excess use of pesticide in mustard and other cereals, pulses andvegetables. A kind of grass which is grooming fast is responsible to reduce theproduction of mustard.From the study area, it is learnt that the production of honey has now drasticallyreduced once farmer have starting using pesticides in their crops. Hence, the reductionof bees and other beneficial insects have created negative impacts in the localbiodiversity and surroundings.c. Extinct of birdsPeople have clearly stated that the types and number of birds at the moment shall notremain the same if climate change continues. Talchara, birds which used to move in agroup basis are no longer seen in the sky. Before 10 years, groups of these birds inseveral days used to migrate from hills to Tarai.The habitat of the birds is also encroached with the over population. Simal trees areconsidered very tall tress in Tarai and these trees were considered the habitat for manybirds. These Simal trees were also in the farm land. Once they stayed in the Simal trees,many harmful insect and pests are eaten by birds. Hence there was no problem ofdiseases in the crops. But tall Simal tresses are no longer available in the Tarai.Tropical wet forests and warm temperate rain forests have drastically disappeared, andcool temperate vegetation has turned to warm temperate vegetation. Vegetationpatterns would be different under the incremental scenario than the existing types.Thus climate change has created direct impact on birds. 67
  • 68. 5.6.1 Adaptations strategiesa. Ban to harvest Simal treeSeeing the importance of simal tree especially within the crop land, the GoN banned tocut and harvest it. In the past, the ply and brick factories procured all tall trees.b. Increase awareness on biodiversity and wetland conservationCompared to past, there is an increase awareness on the importance of compost manureand herbicides, bio-pesticides, etc to save beneficial insects like bees. The discussionswere underway to increase the yields without fertilizers and pesticides. Similarly manyNGOs in the recent years are engaged in increasing the awareness and taking someactions for biodiversity conservation and protection of the value of wetlands. 68
  • 69. Chapter 6 Conclusion and RecommendationsFrom the above discussions and reflections, different conclusions are made and somerecommendations are listed on the changing weather pattern, climate change and theirimpacts on agriculture, animal husbandry, human health, forest and water resources aswell as in biodiversity.6.1 ConclusionIn the recent years, the trends of crop production are in decreasing order except inmaize and paddy. More flowering and poor fruiting in the fruits and vegetables is thecommon phenomenon. In order to promote the knowledge and methods which enhancethe resilience of small-farmer agriculture and food production, there is a need oforganizing demonstration, training, and extension services aimed at promoting newcrops and techniques to farmers. Access to credit for tools, loan, seeds, and transport areequally important sectors to look into. Community based seed bank would be beneficialwith the support from district agriculture development office to enable the farmers ofquality and appropriate variety of seed. Introducing new flood and drought-resistantcrops as an alternative would be important step. More research and innovation on cropdiseases are needed to control the pest and insect in crops wisely without hamperingthe beneficial insects in the environment.Animal husbandry is the second largest means of livelihood of people after agriculture.This sector is suffering from reduction in grazing land, high mortality of livestock andpoor technical know-how. There is a need of improving the technical knowledge offarmers on animal husbandry through training, exposure, innovation and developmentof the agro-vets at local level. Initiatives for improving agro-forestry in private land arerequired to supplement the fodder and grass.Over use of chemical fertilizer and pesticides in the crops make the grains, fruits andvegetables more contaminated. The use of these foods makes explosion of manydiseases and their impacts can be felt in the longer term. Similarly, unavailability ofnutritious food and proper sanitation make health situation further vulnerable. Thechanging climatic events make the explosion of vector and water borne diseases. Hencethere is a need of both curative and preventive measures to reduce the effects of newdiseases. The improvement in technology and dissemination may be other activities tointervene in. It is because the current pattern of primary healthcare for large portions ofthe population can not contribute to reduce their health vulnerability.The several evidences and the reflection of local people found that the level of groundwater is deepening. Many farmer managed irrigation systems are continuouslydysfunctional and wetlands are dried up. Due to this, there will be scarcity of drinkingwater and irrigation facilities in the future. Water ecosystem is at risk. Hence there is a 69
  • 70. need to conserve upper watershed to resume the water source and control erosionfertile top soil. In order to increase the irrigation efficiency, sprinklers and dripnetworks should be promoted. These initiatives can help to expand the total irrigatedarea.In the recent years, forest resources have depleted from unidentified diseases. Depletionof forest resources, flora and fauna and NTFPs are due to increasing pressure on forestresources. It is therefore required to promote afforestation and conservation. Plantingprotective forests can increase water availability in dry season, reduce landslides anderosion, and enhance biodiversity and finally sustain the natural resource base.Water induced disasters are the by-product of weather variation and changes in climateconditions. Floods, drought, and landslides can completely disrupt existingdevelopment efforts and further eroding the resilience of communities including thelivelihoods. Heavy rains often trigger devastating landslides and result direct impactson downstream communities. Hence, there is a need of comprehensive efforts likeaddressing climate-related hazards in all development endeavours, building the strongsocial tie-up among the people and orienting the people on community-based disastermanagement to reduce vulnerability.Vulnerability to the hazards of climate change depends on technology, wealth,education, information, skills, infrastructure, and management capability, etc.Assessment of vulnerability and addressing of context specific problems is vital forprioritizing adaptation measures. Building capacity of local communities is a keyapproach to cope with unintended effects of climate change. Awareness and knowledgemanagement is a prerequisite for any effective response aimed at reducing thevulnerability of climate change. Current trend of climate change and its impacts andfuture projections on the change and impacts should be shared with the schoolstudents, teachers, CBO members in wider scale.Nepal has experienced several barriers in implementing policies related to climatechange. These include the lack of attention at the national policy level and low peoplesawareness. The role of District Natural Disaster Relief Committee (DNDRC) is yet to befully understood. Policy to action needs participation of and cooperation from differentstakeholders (government policy makers, implementing agencies, developmentpartners, private sector, and the communities). The related specific recommendationsare made in the succeeding paragraphs.6.2 RecommendationBased on the overall context discussed above, the study recommended the followingaction that AAN and its PNGOs, NGOs and civil societies, community should carry outin order to reduce the impacts of climate change and promote the community basedadaptation practices. 70
  • 71. 6.2.1 CommunityBased on the overall study findings, the following activities should be carried out inupper catchments i.e. the study VDCs of Arghakhanchi • The communities should be mobilized for the protection of watershed to protect the water resources. The rehabilitation of traditional ponds/water bodies is another steps to recharge the area. • There is need to promote afforestation and conservation. Plantation of fast growing trees including bamboo and ajambari could be initial step through the promotion of community forestry initiatives. Grazing control is necessary to control soil erosion in the upper catchments. • Adoption of renewable energy technologies like bio-gas, solar energy, etc is needed to reduce the pressure on forest resources. In the same time, improved cooking stove and bio-briquette should be promoted in large scale. • The communities should be oriented to form community based disaster preparedness plans and their proper implementation to reduce the risks of disaster. • There is a need to provide especial skills to divert people from subsistence farming practices to alternative income generation activities. Similarly, in the downstream VDCs of Kapilvastu, following activities should be initiated to reduce the impact of climate change. • In the downstream, communities should be encouraged to make safer homes and shelter, management of boats, raised roads and tube wells to reduce the impact of flood. • The communities should be mobilized to seek alternative irrigation through treadle pumps and artisan boring. The PNGOs could link the farmers groups with relevant government agencies for financial and technical support in these regards. • The communities should encourage to from self-help groups, initiate saving and credit and cooperative development for the alternative income generation. Skill development training on bicycle/motorbike repairing, rings casting for toilet and other relevant occupation could be other areas to improve their livelihood. • Plantation of bamboo and other fast growing trees should be initiated on the river banks to reduce the river cutting. • Group farming should be initiated in the river bank by reclaiming the degraded land along the river bank. • It is also recommended to initiate off-seasonal and alternative crop varieties to grow more. In the same time, farmers should be encouraged to change the crops pattern from cereal to HYV like vegetables and other cash crops. 71
  • 72. • Seeing the negative impacts of chemical fertilizer and pesticides, farmers should encourage promoting green manure and bio-pesticides, etc through advocacy and campaigning. • As there are ample opportunities for raising improved varieties of livestock, the promotion of dairy cooperative could be one of the income generation activities for the local people.6.2.2 PNGOsThe PNGOs of AAN including NDRC should carry out the following activities toreduce the impact of climate change. • The PNGOs including NDRC should prepare suitable strategies and approach for community based adaptation practices to climate change in order build awareness of people in large scale. • Farmers should be encouraged to adopt alternative varieties like drought and flood resistance crops to grow more and to secure food and livelihood in difficult time with insurance at the time of piloting these actions. • There is a need to organize sensitization training to school teachers and students, CFUGs, WUAs, S/C groups, mother on climate change for the advocacy and campaigns as well as uniform understanding and rational planning. • There is a need to initiate integrated watershed management programs in upper catchments. • There is a need to establish community based early warning system as a part of preparedness through good communication and forecasting. • A detail PVA exercise should be carried out to make hazards and vulnerability mappings so that these maps could be used for monitoring purpose and to assess the impacts of DRR. • Knowledge documentation on the impact of climate change, community based adaptation practices are other areas to look on. • Communitys knowledge based and environmental friendly small scale mitigation activities could be other activities for DRR.6.2.3 AANThe only community level efforts are not sufficient to reduce the impact of climatechange. More policy level advocacy works are needed to strengthen the communitylevel initiatives. In this regard, AAN should carry out following activities to sustain thecommunity level initiatives. • As the climate change adaptation is relatively new areas for PNGOs, there is a need of advance capacity building initiatives. These could be training, exposures and cross visits. • So far, some organizations have just initiated the climate change activities at local level. There is need to build networks for knowledge sharing and knowledge management so that other can lean more from each others program. 72
  • 73. • Policy advocacy is most important aspect. Debates and discourses on existing policies related to land, water, forest, disaster, energy etc and their implication on climate change is necessary by organizing different meetings and forums.• There is a need to lead the advocacy for the formulation of policy related to climate change adaptation. So far, Nepal does not have any specific policies on climate change. It is therefore, a need of comprehensive, multilateral response to climate change. The policy on climate change could fill this vacuum.• AAN need to support in the national adaptation plan of action development. 73
  • 74. ReferencesAgrawala, S, Raksakulthai, V, Aalst, M. V., Peter Larsen, P, Smith, J and John Reynolds, J,Development and Climate Change In Nepal: Focus On Water Resources And Hydropower,OECD, 2003Bimal R. Regmi and A. Adhikari. Human Development Report 2007. Climate change andhuman development – risk and vulnerability in a warming world. Country Case Study-NepalBhandari, Dinanath. 2007. Building the resilience of communities to cope with climate changeimpacts in Nepal. Practical Action Nepal, Post Box 15135, Kathmandu, NepalAlam, M , B. Regmi . 2004. Nepal Country Assessment Report on Adverse Impacts of ClimateChange on Development: Integrating Adaptation into Policies and Activities.and the renewable revolution (nef, London).CBS . 2006 . Statistical Pocket Book, Nepal, NPC/HMG, Nepal.Dahal, N. 2006. Implications of Climate Change in Nepal: Some Observations andOpportunities. Paper Presented at 23rd Warden Seminar, November 2006 held in PokharaNepal.Dhakal, S. Climate Change Initiatives and Nepal. Climate Change Program, Institute for GlobalEnvironmental Strategies. Hayama, Kanagawa, Japan.Dixit A., 2003: Flood and Vulnerability: Need to Rethink Management, Natural Hazard, Vol 28,No. 1.FRIS. 1999. Forest Resources of Nepal, (1987-1998), FINIDA/HMG, Ministry of Forest, Nepal.Gautam, Dhruba. 2007c. Impact of climate change on children, school and neighbourhood. Asociological study from Banke. Bee Group/AAN.Gautam, Dhruba, Shyam Jnavaly, Amrita Sharma, Ambika Amatya. 2007. Climate ChangeAdaptation on Livelihood of Women Farmers. Case study of Banke and Bardiya Districts ofNepal. ActionAid Nepal.Gautam, Dhruba, Samir, Dhakal, Mahesh, Gautam, Osti, Rabindra. 2007. Integrated CommunityBased Flood Disaster Management. Case from Banke District, Mid-western DevelopmentRegion of Nepal. Nepal Development Research Institute (NDRI)Gautam, Dhruba. 2007b. Damage and Need Assessment. A Sociological Study from Banke,Bardiya and Kailali districts. Lutheran World Federation. Nepal.Gautam, Dhruba. 2007a. Final Evaluation Report. Community Preparedness for Disaster RiskReduction in Central and Eastern Nepal (CPDRR). DanChurchAid (DCA)/Lutheran WorldFederation Nepal/DIPECHO. 74
  • 75. Gautam, Dhruba. 2006b. Process Documentation of Participatory Vulnerability Analysis (PVA).Disaster Risk reduction through School Project (DRRSP). ActionAid Nepal.Gautam, Dhruba. 2006a. Baseline Report through Participatory Vulnerability Analysis (PVA).Disaster Risk reduction through School Project (DRRSP). ActionAid Nepal.Gautam, Dhruba. 2004. Situational Analysis of Disaster Response. Emergency and DisasterManagement Theme. ActionAid Nepal.Gyawali, D., 1998: Patna, Delhi and Environmental Activism: Institutional Forces Behind WaterConflict in Bihar, Water Nepal Vol.6, No. 1, 67-115. Nepal Water Conservation Foundation,KathmanduHMG. 1992. National Report Submitted in United Nations Conference on Environment andDevelopment, Rio de Janerio, HMG,Nepal.McMichael et al (2003) Climate Change and Human Health – Risk and Responses, (WHO,UNEP, WMO, Geneva).Mitchell, Tom et al. 2007. We Know What We Need. South Asian Women Speak out on ClimateChange adaptation. ActionAid International.MOPE. 2001. State of the Environment Nepal (Agriculture & Forest), Ministry of Population andEnvironment, HMG, Nepal, available in online www.most. Gov.npMoPE. 2004. Nepal Initial National Communication to the Conference of the Parties of theUnited Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. HMG/N, MOPE, Kathmandu,Nepal.NAPA Case Study 2003. Nepal NAPA Case Study, 9-11 September, 2003, Thimphu, Bhutan.NPC . 1997. The Ninth Plan, NPC, HMG, Nepal.NPC. 1992. The Eighth Plan 1992-97. Kathmandu: National Planning Commission, His MajestysGovernment of Nepal.NPC. 2002. The Tenth Plan, NPC, HMG, Nepal. www.npc.gov.npOxfam International, 2007: Sink or Swim: Why Disaster Risk Reduction is central to survivingfloods in South Asia, Oxfam Briefing Note. August 12, 2007.R.K. Aryal, 1978. Department of Mines and Geology, Government of Nepal.Raut, A. 2006. Climate Change Impacts on Nepal. A bulletin on change and development .Special issue on Nepal. Issue 60, July 2006. 75
  • 76. Shardul A., Vivin R. Maarten, V.A., Peter, L. Joel, S and John, R. 2003. Development andSharma, C.K. and A.D. Adhikary . 1990. Nepal’s Hydro-electricity: Energy for tomorrow world.Shrestha, H.M. 1968. Water and Power Potential of Nepal (its theoretical and technical limits).Translation of Seventh World Energy Conference.Simms, A et al (2004) The price of power: poverty, climate change, the coming energy crisis,Stainton, J.D.A. 1972. Forest of Nepal, John Murray, London.Thomas, C et al (2004) "Extinction risk from climate change" in Nature, 8 January 2004.Trobe, S.L. 2002. Climate Change and Poverty: A Discussion Paper. TEARFUND, Public PolicyPaper, Christian Action with the World’s Poor, tearfund, UK, pp 23.UNEP .2001. State of the Environment of Nepal, UNEP, NORAD, MOPE/HMG.UNEP and UNFCCC .2002. Climate Change Information Kit, UNEP/IUC/2002/7, Geneva.UNFCCC. 2000. Climate Change Information Kit, Information Sheet 13 online atwww.unfccc.int.UNFCCC. 2000a. Review of the Implementation of Commitments and of the other Provisions ofthe Convention: Report of the Global Environment Facility to the Conference.FCCC/CP/2000/3/Add.1.UNFCCC. 2001. UNFCCC Status of Ratification. Bonn: UNFCCC. Available on- line atwww.unfccc.intUNFCCC. 2004. UNFCCC, The First Ten Years. Bonn Germany, Climate Change Secretariat.UNFCCC. 2004. UNFCCC, The First Ten Years. Bonn Germany, Climate Change Secretariat.Upadhyay, S.N. 2000. Hydropower Potential of Nepal, Perspectives for Nepalese Economy ofNepal, Ministry of Commerce, HMG, Nepal.USCSP .1997. Country Study Team Nepal, 1997. Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation:Nepal Water Resources. Prepared as a part of the US Country Studies Program, Washington,DC.USCSP. 1997. Country Study Team Nepal, 1997. Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation:Nepal Water Resources. Prepared as a part of the US Country Studies Program, Washington,DC.WECS, 1988. Nepal and its Water Resources. Prepared by Water and Energy CommissionSecretariat, HMG/N. 76
  • 77. WECS. 1997. Water and energy Commission Secretariats, Singh Darbar, Kathmandu, Nepal.WECS. 2002. Water Resources Strategy Nepal, HMG, Water and Energy CommissionSecretariat, Singh Darbar, Kathmandu, Nepal.Working with flood prone communities for Climate Change Impact adaptation in Nepal byDinanath Bhandari. 2007Working with the Winds of Change. Toward Strategies for Responding to the Risks Associatedwith Climate Change and other Hazards. Marcus Moench and Ajaya Dixit (Editors). IDRC,DCRI, NOAA and DFID. 2007World Bank (ADB, AfDB, DFID, OECD and others), 2003: Poverty and Climate Change:Reducing the Vulnerability of the Poor Through Adaptation, 43pp.World Bank, 2003. World Development Report 2003: Sustainable Development in a DynamicWorld. New York: Oxford University PressWorld Bank. 2002. World Development Indicators. On CD Rom. World Bank, Washington, DC.World Meteorological Organisation, Co-operative Programme on Water and Climate et al.,2006. 77
  • 78. Annex-1: Climatic Assessment of Study Area Climatic extreme events especially floods and droughts are the concerns of the study. These extreme events in any region are the results of extreme meteorological and hydrological conditions of the region. Changes in extreme weather events and on much other behaviour of living beings and physical environments are the concerns of understanding of climate change. For the study of climate change longer period data is required to obtain more confidence on the result. In Nepal, the services of Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM), which is government authorized agency, started to provide information in a systematic manner only from 1966? A very less number of stations lie in the watershed of this study. Three stations were considered in the study to observe the trend pattern in rainfall and one station for temperature. These stations of indexes are 0715(Khanchikot Station of height 1760 m amsl) in Arghakhachi district, 0721 (Patharkot Station of height 200m amsl) and 0716 (Taulihawa Station of height 90m amsl) in Kapilbastu were chosen in the study. Here, the station of index 0716 is climatic station and the stations of indexes 0715 and 0721 are the rainfall stations. In order to make a climatic analysis, data from equal and more than 30 years is required. In this context, the length of records of rainfall data from all these stations is comparatively good than the temperature data of station 0716. It means length of record of temperature from this station is not significant for the analysis; it is only available for 20 years. However, the trend of temperature around the region of the basin was received from different literatures in order to look its variability and trend. The temporal variations of annual rainfall and seasonal rainfall at each selected stations are plotted and looked separately. The mean normal rainfall (monsoon rainfall) has been performed for all those selected stations using office excel . Summer Rainfall Patterns and its Impacts in the Study Area Monsoon rainfall from June to September plays significant role in agriculture and water resources perspectives. Total normal monsoon rainfall (average monsoon rainfall of about 30 years) in study area is about 1630mm per year. Monsoon rainfall trend for station 0721(Patharkot) has almost not changed but trend for station 0715(Khachikot) and for 0716 (Taulihawa) has been extremely decreasing (Figure 1). In the periods 70s and 80s, the rainfall pattern was almost above the normal in the study area. During the periods (1970-1990), however, community felt no scarcity of water for paddy cultivation as they have shared their experiences during the field visit. 78
  • 79. Monsoon Rainfall Pattern in Study Area 3500 0715 (Kachikot) 0721(Patharkot) 0716(Taulihawa) 3000 Linear ( 0716(Taulihawa)) Linear (0721(Patharkot) ) Linear ( 0715 (Kachikot)) 2500 Rainfall in mm 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Years Figure 1: Monsoon Rainfall in the Selected StationsOn the other hand, frequencies of normal below rainfall were observed morethan normal above in upstream and extreme downstream of the watershed in thelast 15 years( Figure 1). It clears that the lower region of the study area has beensuffered from the adequate water availability. Figure 1 shows that in all threestations, the impacts of droughts varied in the recent years. The impacts areobserved in groundwater levels, drinking and irrigation water supply. As aresult, reduction of rice production, major crop of summer season, has beenobserved in the recent years in the watershed. The historical rainfall datasupports the community experiences that they felt, the extreme flood inalternate years in the recent decade. It causes loss of paddy production and hasbeen inadequate for sufficient yield of rice. Regarding the monsoon rainfall trendnationwide, the monsoon rainfall trend seem to be increasing in the recent years(DHM, 2007). The reverse trend has been observed in monsoon rainfall at locallevel in study area. This phenomenon gives a clear picture that an influence oflocal climate is significant.Winter and Total Rainfall Patterns and its Impacts in the Study AreaThe winter monsoon, dominated by western disturbances in the country, fromNovember to February, is the main source of winter crops production. The wheatis one of the major crops in the study area during this dry season. Farmers do not 79
  • 80. depend on the river runoff for the irrigation purpose in the dry season, but onrainwater. The winter-rain in the study area is shown in the figure (Figure…).The normal rainfall (average of about 30 years) are 108 mm, 63 mm and 58mmobserved for the stations 0715( Kachikot), 0721(Patharkot), and 0716 (Taulihawa)respectively. Winter Rainfall Pattern in the Study Area 300 250 200 Rainfall of station 0715(Khanchikot) Rainfall in mm 150 Rainfall of station 0716(Taulihawa) Rainfall of Station 0721(Patharkot) Linear ( Rainfall of station 0716(Taulihawa)) 100 Linear (Rainfall of station 0715(Khanchikot)) Linear (Rainfall of Station 0721(Patharkot)) 50 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 -50 YearsFigure 1: Winter Rainfall in the Selected StationsThe winter rainfall is almost seen to decreasing trend. The frequency of belownormal rainfall in upstream of the watershed is more in the period between 1990sand 2006 than in the period of 1980s. Similarly, below normal rainfall indownstream of the watershed has been noticed in the recent years. Thisassessment has clarified that the water resources like groundwater and river-water are becoming limited due to the continued drought in the study area. It isobserved during the field visit that only the few farmers especially in the middleregion of the study area have been able to supply limited water using surfaceirrigation in winter season. Due to rapid decline in water sources, droughtimpacts have been felt by the community especially in downstream of thewatershed. The declination of winter season crops especially wheat and othercash crops are the result of the impacts in the study area.In addition, almost all the annual rainfall trend in the watershed seems to benearly decreasing (Figure 3). The annual rainfall trend for the station Taulihawaand for the Kanchikot are significantly decreasing whereas for the station 80
  • 81. Patharkot it is mildly decreasing. It shows that the downstream of watershed issignificantly driest and upstream of the watershed is also becoming dry. Mean Annual Total Rainfall in Study Area 4000 3500 3000 2500 Rainfall of station 0721( Patharkot) Rainfall in mm Rainfall of station 0715( Khanchikot) Rainfall of station 0716( Taulihawa) 2000 Linear (Rainfall of station 0716( Taulihawa)) Linear (Rainfall of station 0715( Khanchikot)) Linear ( Rainfall of station 0721( Patharkot)) 1500 1000 500 0 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 YeasFigure 3: Mean Annual Total Rainfall in the Selected StationsTemperature Pattern and its Impacts in the Study AreaThe climatic station of 0716(Taulihawa) represents the temperature scenario inthe downstream of the watershed. The temperature data for this station during1989 -2006 was reviewed. As per the data records obtained from the DHM, themaximum temperature for this station has been reviewed. The annual maximumtemperature seems to be significantly decreasing for this station (Figure 4). Thedown stream of the watershed has experienced a short term decreasing trend oftemperature from the records of year 1987 to the end of 1990s and it has againbeen significantly decreasing after 2000. 81
  • 82. Annual Maximum Temperature at station Taulihawae 33 32 31Temperature indegree Celsius 30 29 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Years Figure 4: Annual Maximum Temperature for the Station Taulihawa The average annual maximum temperature for Taulihawa station is 31 0C. It is observed that the mean annual temperature in the region is decreasing by 0.040C for the last 30 years (ICIMOD, 2001). It implies that days have been cooled. It supports on the experiences felt by community that the intensity of the coldness has increased in the plain region of the study area. People have now adopted their own practices in germination of the seed. For example, farmers are germinating seed in sac and maintaining its temperature and water manually. People are loosing the mustard production in the recent years and potato production has also been affected. People also have observed the diseases like Charchare Bhyaguto Rog affecting livestock in terai region of the study area. These changes in crop production and diseases may be the results of changes in climate. But, further detail study in analyzing the causes of these changes is required. 82