Climate Change                                   Impacts and                                   Adaptation                 ...
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSWe would like to extend our sincere gratitude to all persons who contributed tothis study in many differen...
AcronymsAAN        :   ActionAid NepalCBO        :   Community Based organizationCC         :   Climate ChangeCFUG       :...
Glossary of Local Nepali TermsBaadh               FloodBari                Upland mostly used for maize and mustard cultiv...
Executive Summary1. Background:• The effect of heat trapping due to the increasing presence of green house   gases causes ...
particularly in the sectors like: agriculture, livestock, health, water, forest and   biodiversity, and look at the impact...
the duration of monsoon has also drastically decreased. Now, the rain starts    late and ends early. People used to use lo...
building, accommodating in the crop growing season, initiation of    community based micro-credit programs and adoption of...
shelter, management of boats, raised roads and tube wells to reduce the    impact of flood. As there are ample opportuniti...
Table of ContentAcknowledgementsAcronymsGlossary of local Nepali TermExecutive SummaryChapter 1: Background               ...
4.4 Unpredictable weather events                                    37        4.4.1 Flood                                 ...
Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Strategies by Poor and Excluded                      Communities in Western Nepal:  ...
emissions now, the globe could warm up at a rate faster than it has in the past 10,000years (CEN).The effects of climate c...
the coming century. While it will affect everything from basic ecosystem processes tothe spread of disease, some of the gr...
and Siwalik2. But its effects are seen in the low lying area, i.e. the Tarai also. The analysisof climate data from four r...
1.3 Plans and Policy Initiation by Nepal for Environment and Climate Change IssuesVarious proven studies including Regmi a...
integrated way. Many of the responses to desertification, such as integrated    watershed management and community-based s...
Among the country’s global environmental commitments, climate change is yet to beinternalized by Government of Nepal (GoN)...
Chapter 2                                                                           Nepal and the study areaThis chapter i...
Basin. The VDCs selected from Arghakhanchi fall in Siwalik region while the VDCsfrom Kapilvastu fall in Tarai region. The ...
agriculture/livestock (80.6%) followed by seasonal labour (5.3%) and GOs and NGOsservices (7.3%) and business (6.6%). The ...
•   Flooding, inundation and sedimentation cause the failure of crop production.     •   With the population pressure, lan...
Kapilbastu. The total area of the basin is about 210 Km2, out of which around 85% lies inthe hill slope and the valley and...
Table 7: Rock and soil types in the watershedRock or soil types                            Area (ha)   PercentageAlluvial ...
Chapter 3                                            Objectives, Methods and Outline of ReportThis chapter briefly discuss...
the basin. However, the trend of temperature around the region of the basin wasattempted from different literatures. Risk-...
information from the field. Through the induction meeting, those checklists wereshared with AAN partners in Kapilvastu lik...
b. Vulnerability and hazard mappingVulnerability and hazard mappings exercise was found useful to know the context ofpeopl...
during each disaster event was also recorded. The climate change phenomenon       and its impacts were discussed. Their in...
e. Seasonal CalendarSeasons are the integral parts of peoples lives and they exert an important impact uponthe livelihood ...
h. Key informant interviewThese interviews were made with Teachers, ex-VDC representatives, social elites,mother groups, l...
adopted by the communities especially, poor, women, excluded explored from PVAprocess were categorized in to various forms...
AAN NDRC Banganga Climate Change Impact Study report _final_dec2k7
AAN NDRC Banganga Climate Change Impact Study report _final_dec2k7
AAN NDRC Banganga Climate Change Impact Study report _final_dec2k7
AAN NDRC Banganga Climate Change Impact Study report _final_dec2k7
AAN NDRC Banganga Climate Change Impact Study report _final_dec2k7
AAN NDRC Banganga Climate Change Impact Study report _final_dec2k7
AAN NDRC Banganga Climate Change Impact Study report _final_dec2k7
AAN NDRC Banganga Climate Change Impact Study report _final_dec2k7
AAN NDRC Banganga Climate Change Impact Study report _final_dec2k7
AAN NDRC Banganga Climate Change Impact Study report _final_dec2k7
AAN NDRC Banganga Climate Change Impact Study report _final_dec2k7
AAN NDRC Banganga Climate Change Impact Study report _final_dec2k7
AAN NDRC Banganga Climate Change Impact Study report _final_dec2k7
AAN NDRC Banganga Climate Change Impact Study report _final_dec2k7
AAN NDRC Banganga Climate Change Impact Study report _final_dec2k7
AAN NDRC Banganga Climate Change Impact Study report _final_dec2k7
AAN NDRC Banganga Climate Change Impact Study report _final_dec2k7
AAN NDRC Banganga Climate Change Impact Study report _final_dec2k7
AAN NDRC Banganga Climate Change Impact Study report _final_dec2k7
AAN NDRC Banganga Climate Change Impact Study report _final_dec2k7
AAN NDRC Banganga Climate Change Impact Study report _final_dec2k7
AAN NDRC Banganga Climate Change Impact Study report _final_dec2k7
AAN NDRC Banganga Climate Change Impact Study report _final_dec2k7
AAN NDRC Banganga Climate Change Impact Study report _final_dec2k7
AAN NDRC Banganga Climate Change Impact Study report _final_dec2k7
AAN NDRC Banganga Climate Change Impact Study report _final_dec2k7
AAN NDRC Banganga Climate Change Impact Study report _final_dec2k7
AAN NDRC Banganga Climate Change Impact Study report _final_dec2k7
AAN NDRC Banganga Climate Change Impact Study report _final_dec2k7
AAN NDRC Banganga Climate Change Impact Study report _final_dec2k7
AAN NDRC Banganga Climate Change Impact Study report _final_dec2k7
AAN NDRC Banganga Climate Change Impact Study report _final_dec2k7
AAN NDRC Banganga Climate Change Impact Study report _final_dec2k7
AAN NDRC Banganga Climate Change Impact Study report _final_dec2k7
AAN NDRC Banganga Climate Change Impact Study report _final_dec2k7
AAN NDRC Banganga Climate Change Impact Study report _final_dec2k7
AAN NDRC Banganga Climate Change Impact Study report _final_dec2k7
AAN NDRC Banganga Climate Change Impact Study report _final_dec2k7
AAN NDRC Banganga Climate Change Impact Study report _final_dec2k7
AAN NDRC Banganga Climate Change Impact Study report _final_dec2k7
AAN NDRC Banganga Climate Change Impact Study report _final_dec2k7
AAN NDRC Banganga Climate Change Impact Study report _final_dec2k7
AAN NDRC Banganga Climate Change Impact Study report _final_dec2k7
AAN NDRC Banganga Climate Change Impact Study report _final_dec2k7
AAN NDRC Banganga Climate Change Impact Study report _final_dec2k7
AAN NDRC Banganga Climate Change Impact Study report _final_dec2k7
AAN NDRC Banganga Climate Change Impact Study report _final_dec2k7
AAN NDRC Banganga Climate Change Impact Study report _final_dec2k7
AAN NDRC Banganga Climate Change Impact Study report _final_dec2k7
AAN NDRC Banganga Climate Change Impact Study report _final_dec2k7
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AAN NDRC Banganga Climate Change Impact Study report _final_dec2k7

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This is a study commissioned by ActionAid Nepal and carried out by NDRC Nepal. The study speak about community impact by Climate Change and Adaptation priorities by community.

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  1. 1. Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Strategies by Poor STUDY and Excluded REPORT Communities in Western Nepal: A Comprehensive Study of Banganga River Basin: Arghakhanchi and Kapilvastu, Nepal BY: DHRUBA GAUTAM KRISHNA GAUTAM DIPAK POUDEL ActionAid NepalNATIONAL DISASTER RISK-REDCUTION December 2007 CENTRE NEPAL (NDRC NEPAL) Kathmandu BANESHWOR, KATHMANDU
  2. 2. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSWe would like to extend our sincere gratitude to all persons who contributed tothis study in many different ways: by sharing their experience, thoughts andopinions, and by contributing time, advice and hospitality. Therefore, this reporthas been possible because of the support of so many people personally andprofessionally.We are particularly indebted to community and CBO members of two VDCsunder two districts for their patience, co-operation and good understandingwithout their support it would not have been possible to complete this study. Wewere encouraged when people accepted our presence, answered our queriespassionately and made us internalize the practical difficulties of the area made bythe recent flood, landslides, droughts, cold wave, etc (all disaster hazards).Therefore, we remain obliged to them.We would like to thank Mr. Shyam Sundar Jnavaly, Sr. Theme Leader, EDM,AAN for his valuable inputs in finalizing the study framework and technical aswell as managerial support throughout the study period. We wish to thank theSSDC and Sahaj Nepal officials especially Mr. Krishna, Mr. Yadav and Mr.Umesh for sharing their update information and situation at the ground. Theyhave been valuable resource persons and accompanied with us during the fieldvisits too. Similarly the excellent supports were provided by Indreni RuralDevelopment Centre (IRDC) in managing the community of Banganga basin forexcellent fieldwork.We thank CRC officials, particularly Mr. Nanda Kandangwa, RC, for theirsupport in managing logistics doing field work. We have learnt many thingsfrom school teachers, students, and other key informant about the changingbehaviours of the people with changing climatic conditions. The informationprovided by these people was also extremely valuable. Their observations duringthe field work were extremely valuable sources of information for us.Thanks.Dhruba Gautam Study Coordinator,Krishna Gautam, Field CoordinatorDipak Paudel, Technical CoordinatorNational Disaster Risk-reduction Centre Nepal (NDRC-Nepal)Baneshwor, Kathmandu, NepalDecember 2007
  3. 3. AcronymsAAN : ActionAid NepalCBO : Community Based organizationCC : Climate ChangeCFUG : Community Forest Users GroupCOP : Conference of PartyDADO : District Agriculture Development OfficeDoHM : Department of Hydrology and MeteorologyDRR : Disaster Risk ReductionFGD : Focus Group DiscussionGO : Government OrganizationGoN : Government of NepalICS : Improved Cooking StoveIPCC : Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeKII : Key Informant InterviewKP : Kyoto ProtocolMoEST : Ministry of Environment, Science and TechnologyMoPE : Ministry of Population and EnvironmentNAPA : National Adaptation Programme in ActionNGO : Non-governmental OrganizationsNTNC : Nepal Trust for Nature ConservationPVA : Participatory Vulnerability AnalysisToR : Terms of ReferenceUNDP : United Nations Development ProgrammeUNEP : United Nations Environmental ProgrammeUNFCCC : United Nations ….USCSP : US Country Studies ProgramVDC : Village Development committeeWUA : Water Users Association
  4. 4. Glossary of Local Nepali TermsBaadh FloodBari Upland mostly used for maize and mustard cultivationBikashee Biew Chemical fertiliserChulo Cooking stoveHaat Local weekly marketKathha Unit of land, 20 kathha equals to one bigha (1 bigha=0.67ha)Khet Paddy landMausam WeatherPala Harmful thick fogPesa Traditional occupation to run family livelihoodPrabidhik TechniciansSanstha Institution /organizationSukkha DroughtsUbjani Production 4
  5. 5. Executive Summary1. Background:• The effect of heat trapping due to the increasing presence of green house gases causes global warming and subsequent result of warming is known as climate change. According to third Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the global average surface temperature has increased over the 20th century by about 0.6°C. Temperature rises beyond 2°C are likely to result in reduced crop yields and some ecosystems will be irreversibly damaged. It will contribute to result in much more flooding in low-lying areas with decline in food production, an increase in disease, and the extinction of plants, animals, and entire ecosystems. Particularly, the poor and most vulnerable people and the ecosystems in which they live and on which they depend will bear the brunt of the impacts of climate change.• Although Nepal’s total greenhouse gas emission share is negligible compared to global community, Nepal has already encountered some of the negative impacts of climate change such as quicker glacial melt and glacier retreat. The climate changed induced natural hazards such as landslides, floods and droughts have affected the livelihood of poor and excluded. Despite these impacts, Government of Nepal is yet to make its way into country’s major planning on climate change.• The impacts of climate change and adaptive measures are yet not well researched and documented. Given this context, Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Strategies by Poor and Excluded Communities in Western Nepal: A Comprehensive Study of Banganga River Basin: Arghakhanchi and Kapilvastu, Nepal was commissioned by ActionAid Nepal (AAN) with the broader objective of identifying the ways the climate change has impacted the poor and excluded and strategies communities have adopted to live with the impacts of climate change.2. Outline:• The report is organized into seven sections. The first section provides the scenario of climate change in global and national context and introduction of Nepal and study area with the second section. The third section covers objectives and methods while the climatic change trends in Nepal and study area is discussed in the fourth section. The impact of climate change in different sectors and adaptation strategies adopted by local people is discussed in fifth section. Conclusion and recommendation is given in the sixth section. The last section of the report presents the annexes.3. Objectives:• The overall objectives of the study are to identify how climate changes are noticed or observed by poor and excluded communities over a period of time 5
  6. 6. particularly in the sectors like: agriculture, livestock, health, water, forest and biodiversity, and look at the impacts and effects made by these changes in the communities and their community based adaptation strategies.4. Methodologies:• A number of methods and techniques were used based on the type of information required to obtain to achieve the objectives. As the broad framework for analysis was to assess the status and situation on each of the key sectors the Participatory Vulnerability Analysis (PVA) was the main guiding tool to collect field level information. In order to broaden the ideas and concept about the study, relevant reports and documents related to DRR, climate change, climate change adaptation, and existing policy and strategy were reviewed. Climate related data like temperatures and rainfall of the relevant stations were collected from DoHM of GoN and analyzed. Several round table interaction meetings were organized with stakeholders and ActionAid Nepal to finalize the process, select the VDCs for studies. Checklists and guide questions were used during transect walk, vulnerability and hazard mappings exercise was conducted, time trend was analyzed for disaster history review, Venn diagrams were prepared, seasonal calendar developed and numerous focused group discussions held. Likewise, information was collected from key informants including the government stakeholders.5. Climatic Change Trends in Nepal and the Study Area:• Analysis of recorded temperature and precipitation data in Nepal are limited due to availability of data for only last 30 years. Studies have indicated that temperature in Nepal is increasing. The warming seems to be consistent and continuous after the mid-1970s. It is stated that the average warming in annual temperature between 1977 and 1994 was 0.06ºC/yr. The warming is found to be more pronounced in the high altitude regions of Nepal such as the middle Mountain and the high Himalaya, while the warming is significantly lower or even lacking in the Tarai and Siwalik regions. Likewise, rainfall is also increasing.• Statistical analysis of the monthly data during 1971-2006 for the stations Taulihawa in Kapilbastu and Khanchikot in Arghakhanchi and during 1977- 2006 for Pataki in Kapilbastu district reveals that monsoon rain for Patharkot and Kanchikot is decreasing and extremely decreasing for Taulihawa station. The data showed that the trend of monsoon rainfall was increasing in the country but it was decreasing in the basin.• In the recent years, people also have experienced unusual phenomenon like: more thunderstorm but less rain, more wind, more mobility of clouds but less rain. Elderly people during discussion opined the big thunderstorm without rain is indicator of no potentiality of rainfall. People also have realized that 6
  7. 7. the duration of monsoon has also drastically decreased. Now, the rain starts late and ends early. People used to use local knowledge for prediction of possible rain and they used to plan for cultivation. But all those predictions practices have started to fail now.• In Kapilvastu, people shared that after the construction of Banganga barrage, the problem of flooding and inundation in the riverside of Motipur and Banganga/Kopuwa VDCs was increased. In the local peoples experiences, the cases of droughts are also increasing. Most of the droughts cases are found when there is a need of rainwater. The experience of thick fog during winter morning is also new phenomenon for local people. The fog now remains for several weeks to months.6. Climate Change, Its Impacts and Community Based Adaptation Strategies:• Though people have poor knowledge on the technical matters of climate change but they have shown several evidences, which demonstrate that they have perceived, felt and experienced about its effects. The amount and patterns of rain-fall, the frequency and extent of droughts, the trends of crop failure due to emergence of new crop diseases, etc are some of the visible impacts. Through the exercise of historical timeline, people have informed the stories transferred from one generation to another about the changes of climate and its impacts in local context. They sometimes have used the local knowledge on the basis of position of clouds, wind flows, position of stars, rainbow and with insects, pest and animal behaviour for the prediction of weather but such predictions could not be completely relied upon. People have linked that these are due to climate change.• There are many evidences that show that how climate change is affecting peoples lives and livelihood. The rain pattern over the years is a live experience. People have been facing longer and frequent droughts, erratic rainfall, storms, thunderstorm and hailstone. As a result, crop failures are common; the cases of landslide, flooding/inundation, and riverside erosion are other phenomenon and further these are in increasing order. The spread of new water and vector borne diseases are other impacts of climate change. The most vulnerable ecological and socio-economic systems are those with the greatest sensitivity to climate change and the least ability to adapt.• Climate change has impacted agriculture in the study area and the people have reported decreasing trends of crop production, more flowering and poor fruiting in the fruits and vegetables, reduced production from on-farm activities, explosion of pest and insect in crops, erosion of fertile top soil, reduction in working hours for agriculture, shift to use hybrid seeds, increasing workload of women and children and increasing trends of seasonal migration as a result of climate change. Yet the adaptation strategies of the affected people included their engagement in off-seasonal and alternative crop varieties, establishment of dairy cooperative, vocational skills 7
  8. 8. building, accommodating in the crop growing season, initiation of community based micro-credit programs and adoption of improved agriculture practices, etc. Likewise, there has been reduction in grazing land, high mortality of livestock, closure of shifting livestock grazing in the study area. To adapt to these changes, people have started raising improved varieties of livestock and reclaiming the degraded land along the riverbank.• The respondents shared that these days, with the changing pattern of climatic features, there have been different health problems. People have experience clear heat and cold related illness, cardio vascular problems, vector borne diseases like malaria, filaria, kala-azar, Japanese encephalitis, and dengue caused by bacteria, virus, and pathogens like mosquitoes and ticks, as well as diarrhoea, cholera and intoxication caused by biological and chemical contaminants in water. Birth of abnormal children is also experienced these days. People have been using mosquito nets to escape from the mosquito bites and also have given consideration in drinking water.• Lowering the level of ground water, defunct farmer managed irrigation systems, threatening of the wetlands, etc are impacts observed in water resources. People have started protecting watershed to retain the water resources, rehabilitating traditional ponds/water bodies, promoting afforestation and conservation programmes and taking alternative measures to increase irrigation efficiency to cope with these impacts. Likewise, in the forestry sector, local people have observed forest resources depletion, forest resources affected from unidentified diseases, and even extinction of some species like of NTFPs because of changing climate. In order to reduce the impact to people, people shared that there have been initiatives for alternative energy sue, plantation of fast growing trees including bamboo and scaling community forest programmes. Because of the impact on forest resources, biodiversity is also being affected. Bees, aquatic animals, and birds are worst hit by the climate change. Habitat protection measures with awareness generating activities were taken by the community people to reduce the impact on biodiversity.7. Remarks:• It has been observed from this study that climate change is evident in Nepal and the impacts can be visualized. Therefore, concrete actions are required on the part of all stakeholders. Based on the overall findings discussed above, the study recommends different actions to community, local NGOs, and to AAN which is carrying our climate change adaptation initiatives.• The communities should be mobilized for the conservation of watershed to protect the water resources. There is need to promote afforestation and conservation. Adoption of renewable energy technologies like bio-gas, solar energy, etc is needed to reduce the pressure on forest resources. In the downstream, communities should be encouraged to make safer homes and 8
  9. 9. shelter, management of boats, raised roads and tube wells to reduce the impact of flood. As there are ample opportunities for raising improved varieties of livestock, the promotion of dairy cooperative could be one of the income generation activities for the local people. With this, there should be diverse agriculture that will help communities to adapt to the impacts of climate change.• Local NGOs and partner NGOs of AAN should prepare suitable strategies and approaches for community based adaptation practices to climate change in order build awareness of people in large scale. Farmers should be encouraged to adopt alternative varieties like drought and flood resistance crops to grow more and to secure food and livelihood in difficult time with insurance at the time of piloting these actions. There is a need to establish community based early warning system as a part of preparedness through good communication and forecasting.• As the climate change adaptation is relatively new area for local partner NGOs, there is a need of advance capacity building initiatives on science and art of climate change. These could be training, exposures and cross visits. Policy advocacy with debates and discourses on existing policies related to land, water, forest, disaster, energy etc and their implication on climate change is necessary by organizing different meetings and forums. There is a need to lead the advocacy for the formulation of policy related to climate change adaptation. 9
  10. 10. Table of ContentAcknowledgementsAcronymsGlossary of local Nepali TermExecutive SummaryChapter 1: Background 121.1 Background 121.2 Climate Change in the Nepals Context 141.3 Plans and Policy Initiation for Environment and Climate Change Issues 14Chapter 2: Nepal and the study area 192.1 Nepal 192.2 Socio-economic profiles of study area 19 2.2.1 Population 20 2.2.2 Caste composition 20 2.2.3 Language 20 2.2.4 Livelihood pattern 20 2.2.5 Food sufficiency status 21 2.2.6 Seasonal migration pattern 21 2.2.6 Land tenure system 222.3 Weather Characteristics of River Basin 23Chapter 3: Objectives, Methods and Outline of Report 253.1 Objectives of the study 253.2 Methodology used 25 3.2.1 Review of Relevant literature and Information 25 3.2.2 Round table discussion 26 3.2.3 Building Rapport with local level stakeholders 26 3.2.4 Modality of the selection of VDCs 26 3.2.5 Design Instruments, Checklist and Guide Questions 26 3.2.6 PVA at Community Level 27 3.2 7 Meeting with Government Stakeholders 31 3.2.8 Reporting back to the Communities 31 3.2.9 Analysis the Vulnerabilities 313.3 Outline of the report 32Chapter 4: Climatic Change Trends in Nepal and the Study Area 334.1 Temperature 334.2 Precipitation 344.3 Changes in Temperature and Precipitation 37 10
  11. 11. 4.4 Unpredictable weather events 37 4.4.1 Flood 38 4.4.2 Droughts 40 4.4.3 Thick fog (pala) 41Chapter 5: Climate Change, Its Impacts and Adaptation Strategies 435.1 Agriculture 44 5.1.1 Impacts of climate change on Agriculture 45 5.1.2 Adaptation strategies 505.2. Animal Husbandry 52 5.2.1 Impact of Climate Change in Animal Husbandry 52 5.2.2 Adaptation strategies 545.3 Human Health 54 5.3.1 Impact of climate change on Human Health 56 5.3.2 Adaptation strategies 595.4 Water Resources 59 5.4.1 Impact of climate change in Water Resources 60 5.4.2 Adaptation strategies 615.5 Forest Resources 62 5.5.1 Impact of climate change on Forest Resources 63 5.5.2 Adaptation strategies 655.6 Biodiversity 66 5.6.1 Impact of Climate Change in Biodiversity 67 5.6.1 Adaptations strategies 68Chapter 6: Conclusion and Recommendations 696.1 Conclusion 696.2 Recommendation 70 6.2.1 Community 71 6.2.2 PNGOs 72 6.2.3 AAN 72References 74Annex-1: Climatic Assessment of Study Area 78 11
  12. 12. Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Strategies by Poor and Excluded Communities in Western Nepal: A Comprehensive Study of Banganga River Basin: Arghakhanchi and Kapilvastu, Nepal Chapter 1 BackgroundThe first chapter introduces climate change, the underlying causes and subsequentimpacts that local people have experienced over the years followed by the impacts ofclimate change in peoples lives and livelihood in the global context. In the later sectionof this chapter, climate change in the Nepals context is discussed. In this section, moreemphasis is given to explain how different groups of people of Nepal have experiencedthe impacts of climate change with different cases and forms. Towards the end, a policyreview on environment and climate change is presented.1.1 BackgroundClimate refers to the average weather and represents the state of the climate systemover a given time period. Due to natural variability or as a result of humaninterventions, there is increase in the Box 1: Vulnerability and its characteristicsemission of the greenhouse gases reflecting Vulnerability is the degree to which a system isvariation of the mean state of weather susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adversevariables including temperature, effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. In other words,precipitation and wind (Orindi and Eriksen, vulnerability is a ‘set of conditions determined by2005). The effect of heat trapping due to the physical, social, economic and environmentalincreasing presence of these gases is factors or processes which increase the susceptibility of a community to the impact ofunderstood as greenhouse effect which hazards,’ (The Hyogo Framework 2005-2015,causes global warming and subsequent result adopted by the UN at the World Conference onof warming is known as climate change. Disasters in 2005). It is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity and itsThere are many evidences of climate change adaptive capacity. Among many, flood hazards asthat are being experienced by many people an impact of climate change, damages the infrastructures, erodes the valuable agriculture landespecially the poor and excluded around the and losses of thousands of lives and livestock.world in different forms. According to thirdAssessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the globalaverage surface temperature has increased over the 20th century by about 0.6°C. Thereis new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 yearsis attributable to human activities. The global average surface temperature is expectedto increase by 1.4°C to 5.8°C by 2100, depending largely on the scale of fossil-fuelburning. IPCC has determined that even if we take steps to reduce our greenhouse gas 12
  13. 13. emissions now, the globe could warm up at a rate faster than it has in the past 10,000years (CEN).The effects of climate changes are multifaceted. Past and current emissions mean that anincrease in temperature of 1°C to 1.5°C is inevitable. Yet the increase of 0.6°C that hasalready occurred is having a severe impact on global ecosystems and especially on poorpeople. To avoid the most serious impact of global warming and climate change, theglobal mean temperature should be limited to a 2°C increase above pre-industrial levels(UK Government, 2003). Temperature rises beyond 2°C are likely to result in reducedcrop yields in most tropical, sub-tropical, and mid-latitude regions and someecosystems will be irreversibly damaged or lost. It will contribute to result in muchmore flooding in low-lying areas with decline in food production, an increase indisease, and the extinction of plants, animals, and entire ecosystems (IPCC, 2007).Further, as a result of human activities, atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gasesare rising and with them, global temperatures. In addition to increases in temperature,global warming results in more extreme weather patterns: more rain, longer dry spells,stronger and more violent storms, more fires, and the spread of tropical diseases. Asclimate change pushes the world towards more extreme weather, more and morepeople will be exposed to recurrent disasters during their lives. IPCC (2007) predictedthat there will be a widespread increase in the risk of flooding for many humansettlements. Flooding and landslides, the unavoidable results of climate change, posethe most widespread direct risk to human settlements. It’s estimated that by 2025 overhalf of all people living in developing countries will be highly vulnerable to floods andstorms. Food, health, water and energy, the building blocks of livelihoods may facemany of the threats from, and responses to, global warming in the days to come.Without stopping the effects of global warming, it is clear that the viability of millionsof people’s lives and livelihoods will be undermined; without significant new resources,millions of others won’t be able to adapt to changes that are already happening.Particularly, the poor and most vulnerable people and the ecosystems in which theylive and on which they depend will bear the brunt of the impacts of climate change. Inboth developing and developed countries, the impact of climate change can be muchgreater for indigenous communities who rely most directly on their immediateenvironments for subsistence and livelihood often living in the more remote andecologically fragile zone (UNFCCC, 2004). World Bank (2003) also mentioned that allcountries are vulnerable to climate change but the poorest countries and the poorestpeople within them are most vulnerable. Similarly, a study carried out by Regmi andAdhikari (2007) found that the impact of global warming is already being felt by themost vulnerable-the world’s poorest people and countries and its impact is severe onNepal because of the geographical and climatic conditions, high dependence on naturalresources and lack of resources to cope with the changing climate. Climate change isincreasingly recognized as among the greatest challenges human society will face over 13
  14. 14. the coming century. While it will affect everything from basic ecosystem processes tothe spread of disease, some of the greatest impacts are anticipated to occur due toincreases in the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events, i.e. storms, floods,droughts, etc.Furthermore, the incidence and economic impact of climate related disasters has beenincreasing over recent decades (World Meteorological Organisation, Co-operativeProgramme on Water and Climate et al., 2006). As the Hyogo framework for DisasterRisk Reduction (DRR) highlights, DRR is essential if the world is to succeed in reachingthe Millennium Development Goals (ISDR, 2005). Conceptually, reducing the risk ofdisasters is closely associated to adaptation processes. What makes people vulnerable?To most people today, this is an everyday question that is as simple as it is complex.1.2 Climate Change in the Nepals ContextAlthough Nepal’s total greenhouse gas emission share is negligible compared to globalcommunity, Nepal has already encountered some of the negative impacts of climatechange. Studies made by Department of Hydrology and Meteorology show thataverage temperature in Nepal is increasing approximately 0.06 degrees Celsius peryear. The temperature in the Himalayas, however, is increasing at a faster rate, which isresulting serious impacts on the glacial lakes-the sources of water for Nepal. Manyglaciers are retreating at a faster rate and rapidly melting glaciers means more seasonalvariation in river flow resulting more floods and droughts in the country. BecauseNepal has a complex, mountainous landscape, floods and landslides have also becomemore frequent and severe. The high dependence on natural resources for livelihood andinadequate resources to cope with are other reasons. These factors collectivelycontribute to result the vulnerable situation of the rural poor and excluded.About 85.8 percent of the total population reside in rural areas of Nepal and meet theirenergy demand from biomass combustion, particularly firewood, while about 15percent of the total population living in urban areas is exposed to different levels ofconcentration of gases, including greenhouse gases. The Himalayas constitute athreatened ecosystem in the world. Himalayas in Nepal are geologically young andfragile and are vulnerable to even insignificant changes in the climatic system. Thissystem is threatened through anthropogenic activities such as farming practices andnatural resource consumption patterns (Regmi and Adhikari, 2007).The climate induced natural hazards such as landslides, floods and droughts affect thelivelihood of poor and excluded (Gautam et al, 2007). Analysis of existing temperaturerecords already shows an increasing trend in Nepal. This warming has been morepronounced in the middle mountain and the high Himalayas than in the lower Tarai1 1 It is marshy ground or meadow. It is the flat area lying to the south of the Churia range and extending to the Indian boarder. Geology and soil composition consists of recent alluvial plain, boulders, gravel sands, clay and fine loamy deep soils. 14
  15. 15. and Siwalik2. But its effects are seen in the low lying area, i.e. the Tarai also. The analysisof climate data from four recording stations representing inner Tarai, mid mountains forthe periods of early 1970s to 2000 and one for High Mountain for the period 1988 to2000 has shown that there has been a clear warming trend in Nepal (Chaulagain, 2006).A number of possible climate change-related impacts on agriculture, horticulture,livestock, human health, water resources, forest resources and bio-diversity affectingthe poors livelihoods and the environment (Gautam et al, 2007).Nepal signed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC) in Rio de Janeiro in June 12, 1992 and ratified it on May 2, 1994. It has beenregularly participating in conference of parties (COPs) and other subsidiary meetingsand it also became party of Kyoto Protocol by submitting its instrument of Accession.So far, Nepal does not have any specific policies on climate change (more of which isdiscussed later); but it has some policies and programs to promote clean energy andenergy efficiency. It is therefore, there is a need of comprehensive, multilateral responseto climate change.In Nepal, the impact of climate change is not experienced in the same manner by thedifferent groups of people. The poor communities are at the hardest hit by the climatechange. In the rural area of Nepal, the livelihood of the poor and excluded is entirelydependent upon agriculture, livestock, water, forest resources and biodiversityresources. The changes in these sectors as a result of climate change have affecteddirectly lives and livelihood of these rural poor. Particularly, women are morevulnerable due to climate change. Similar findings are recorded from studies carried outby Mitchell et al (2007) and Gautam et al (2007). According to these studies, climatechange is affecting everybody, regardless of caste, ethnicity, sex, race or level of incomebut women and poor are at the worst hit. Women make up for 70% of the world’s poor.They have less access to financial resources, land, education, health and other basicrights than men, and are seldom involved in decision making processes. They are,therefore, less able to cope with the impact of climate change and are less able to adapt.The same studies also found that women in poor areas have started to adapt to achanging climate and can clearly articulate what they need to secure and sustain theirlivelihoods more effectively. Their priorities include a safe place to live and store theirharvest and livestock during the monsoon season, better access to services such asagricultural extension, training and information about adaptation strategies andlivelihood alternatives, and access to resources to implement effective strategies andovercome constraints. Among the many areas, the impacts of climate change are clearlyobserved by poor and excluded on agriculture, livestock, human health, water, forestresources and biodiversity. 2 The first range arising north of the Indo-gangetic plain, up to 1000 m, geology and soil composition consists of clay stone, sandstone, conglomerate and loamy skeletal. The term Siwaliks is used throughout the Himalayan region. Churia (or chure) is a Nepali word for Siwalik range. Locally, the word chure is used to describe a single hill crest, and Churia to describe a group or a range of hill crests 15
  16. 16. 1.3 Plans and Policy Initiation by Nepal for Environment and Climate Change IssuesVarious proven studies including Regmi and Adhikari (2007) suggest that Nepal hasstarted some initiative for environmental protection and management since 1990s. Thedebates on the issues of climate change have even been started. The following sectionshighlighted some of the initiatives that Nepal has taken for environmental and climatechange sectors. • The Eighth Plan ((1992-1997): During this period, two major works were carried out by the then HMG/Nepal. These included the formulation of enactment of Environment Protection Act (1996) and Promulgation of Environment and Protection Regulations (1997) which helped to start the debate and discourse in environmental issues. • The Ninth-Plan (1997-2002): The plan had prioritized agriculture, industrialization and tourism development through environment management intending to contribute to poverty reduction. • The Tenth-Plan (2002-2007): The plan acknowledged the importance of weather for economic performance but was almost silence in climate risks issues. • Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF): This framework included some ideas on impacts of weather and climate. (Shardul et al, 2003) finds that it discusses vector-borne disease control and emergency preparedness and disaster management, mitigation of floods and erosion in cultivated areas, and water harvesting to provide year-round water supply for irrigation. In addition to these, MTEF paid some attention on climate-related risks. But the framework is almost unspoken about relation of hydropower plants due to the variability in runoff, floods (including GLOFS), and sedimentation. The same situation was also observed in road sector. It did not discuss flood and landslide risks, water supply and sanitation, irrigation sectors due to climate risks. • The National Conservation Strategy (NCS): NCS was a major step to systematically develop an appropriate strategy for environment and resources conservation in Nepal. • Nepal Environmental Policy and Action Plan (NEPAP): After the UN Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) in Rio, HMG/N established the Environmental Protection Council (EPC) under the chairmanship of the Prime Minister in 1992. Thereafter, NEPAP 1993 was introduced to carry out sustainable management of natural resources; to address the issues of population, health and sanitation, and poverty alleviation; to safeguard national heritage; to mitigate adverse environmental impact and to support in legislation, institutions, education and public awareness. • United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD): Nepal signed the International Convention to Combat Desertification and ratified it in 1996. Nepal took active part in the UN Conference on Desertification (1977), and in the formulation of the UN Plan of Action to combat desertification for addressing impacts of desertification, land degradation, and climate change in an 16
  17. 17. integrated way. Many of the responses to desertification, such as integrated watershed management and community-based soil and water management, would also enhance Nepal’s resilience to disasters and adaptive capacity to climate change.• Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD): Nepal signed the CBD in 1992, and ratified it in 1993. The Country’s Biodiversity Strategy (2002) was prepared under the UNDP/GEF Biodiversity Conservation Project. It listed several climate-related risks, such as flooding and sedimentation, as threats to biodiversity.• World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD): Nepal’s National Assessment Report for the WSSD (2002) recognized the links between climatic circumstances and land degradation, erosion and landslides. It also recognized the increase in landslide risks due to the effects of paddy cultivation and livestock grazing in the hills and mountains. However, adaptation to climate change was not specifically addressed.• Sustainable Development Agenda for Nepal (SDAN): The SDAN listed Nepal’s vulnerability to climate change, natural disasters and environmental degradation among the constraints facing Nepal’s sustainable development. Though it did not mention climate change explicitly, there was a specific section on protection of the atmosphere.• National Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA): Nepal has prepared the project document to initiate the National Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA) with participation from a multi-disciplinary team, coordinated by Ministry of Environment, science and Technology (MoEST).• Major Policies of Nepal in Environmental Sectors: National Wetlands Policy (2003), National Biodiversity Strategy (2002), Master Plan for the forestry sector (1988), National Parks & Wildlife Conservation Act (1973), Forest Act (2049), Forest Regulation (2051), Lake Protection Act (2053), Environmental Protection Regulation (2054), Buffer Zone Regulation (2052), Convention on Biological Diversity (1992), Aquatic Animals Protection Act (1961), Soil and Watershed Conservation Act (1982), Water Resources Act (1992), Environment Protection Act (1996), Environment Protection Rules (1997), and Ozone Depleting Substance Consumption (Control) Rules, 2001 are the major policies in Nepal with the objective of maintaining a clean and healthy environment by minimizing adverse impacts in the pursuit of economic development.• Local Self-Governance Act, 1998: It empowered the local bodies such as DDC, VDC and the municipalities by outlining their environmental functions comprising of local-level planning of the environment, forest and bio-diversity conservation and use, and pollution control etc.• National Agricultural Policy 2004: It emphasized to increase productivity rate and to protect and promote natural resources to utilize them in the interest of farmers. 17
  18. 18. Among the country’s global environmental commitments, climate change is yet to beinternalized by Government of Nepal (GoN). The climate change has yet to make itsway into country’s major planning documents. It has also been left out of the NepalEnvironment Policy and Action Plan. At the national level, meanwhile, Nepal has nospecific policy documents dealing with climate change. The preparation of the NAPA isthe first official initiative for mainstreaming adaptation into national policies andactions for addressing adverse impacts of climate change and reducing vulnerability toclimate stimuli including extreme events. Nepal has prepared the project document toinitiate the NAPA with participation from a multi-disciplinary team, coordinated byMinistry of Environment, Science, and Technology-MoEST (Alam, 2004). 18
  19. 19. Chapter 2 Nepal and the study areaThis chapter is broadly categorized into three parts. Nepal’s introduction with itsdifferent ecological regions is discussed in the first section followed by the socioeconomic profiles of the study area. In the third section, a brief introduction on weathercharacteristics of Banganga river basin has been discussed.2.1 NepalNepal is a land-locked country located in South Asia between India and China. It issituated between latitudes of 26022 to 30027 north and between longitudes of 8004 to88012 east. The east-west length of the country is about 800 km, and the average north-south width is 140 km. Within the Box 1: Description of Ecological Regions of Nepal147,181 km2 area of the country, A. Tarai: This is the southern part of Indo-Gangetic plain. Itphysiographic regions range from extends nearly 800 km from east to west and about 30-40 km from north to south. The average elevation is below 750 m. Ittropical forests in the south to the also covers Bhavar and Inner Tarai. The temperate is usuallysnowy Himalayas in the north. high.Nepal has a very diverse B. Siwalik: It is commonly called as Churia. Its elevation ranges from 700 to 1,500 m. Due to its poor geology as a resultenvironment resulting from its of loose friable nature and extensive deforestation in pastimpressive topography (please refer decades, landslides are the common phenomenon whichbox 1). A cross-section of the country caused large sedimentation in the rivers that passes from Churia. The temperate is moderate.reveals that the topography C. Middle Mountain: It is also popularly termed asgenerally progresses from altitudes Mahabharat. Its elevation is ranges from 1,500 to 2,700 m.of less than 100 m in the southern These mountains are the first great barrier to monsoon clouds and the highest precipitation occurs on the southern slope ofTarai plain, up to more than 8,848m this range. The climate is moderate in this region.peaks in the north. It has extreme D. High Mountains: High Mountains range from 2,200 tospatial climatic variation – from a 4,000 m. This region consists of phyllite, schists and quartzite rocks, and the soil is generally shallow and resistant totropical to arctic climate with a span weathering. The climate is cool.of about 200 km. E. High Himalaya: Ranges from 4,000 to above 8,000 m dominate the High Himalaya. The climate is of alpine type and the snowline lies at 5,000 m in the east and at 4,000 m in theNepal has five ecological regions viz west. The area lying to the north of the main Himalayan rangeTarai, Siwalik, Middle Mountain, is the Trans-Himalayan region, which restricts the entry ofHigh Mountains and High Himalaya monsoon moisture and therefore the region has a dry desert- like climate.(please refer to box 1). This study onlycovers two ecological regions i.e. Tarai and Siwalik.2.2 Socio-economic profiles of study areaThis study was commissioned in Banganga River basin of Arghakhanchi andKapilvastu districts of Western Development Region of Nepal. This study includes atotal of 6 Village Development Committee (VDCs). Subarnakhal and Simalpani VDCswere selected from Arghakhanchi while Motipur, Banganga, Kopuwa and NiglihawaVDCs were chosen from Kapilvastu. Out of the six VDCs under study, two are in theupper catchments whereas four are in the lower catchments of the Banganga River 19
  20. 20. Basin. The VDCs selected from Arghakhanchi fall in Siwalik region while the VDCsfrom Kapilvastu fall in Tarai region. The climatic conditions are hot tropical (sometimestemperature reaching 420C to temperate. Table 1: Population by VDCs VDCs Total Population2.2.1 Population HHs Male Female TotalThe total number of HHs in the study VDCs Subarnkhal 585 1539 1710 3249is 8,930 and average HHs size is 5.6. The Simalpani 1080 3023 3120 6143population of study VDCs is 50,811 in which Motipur 2048 5312 5561 10875 Banganga 1942 5252 5438 10690male and female population is 24,893 and Kopuwa 1661 4773 5005 977825,916 respectively. The VDC wise total HHs Niglihawa 1614 4994 5082 10076with gender disaggregated population is Total 8930 24893 25916 50811 Source: CBS, 2001given in table 1.2.2.2 Caste compositionThe caste composition in the Table 2: Major Cluster and Caste by VDCsstudy area includes Brahmin, District VDCs Clusters Dominant caste groupsChhetri, Dalit, Tharu, Rana, Subarnkhal Chhetri Tole Brahmin, Chhetri khanchiMagar, Tarai non-dalit3, Mager tole Magers ArghaTarai-dalit4 and Mushlim. In Simalpani Simalpani Brahmin, ChhetriArghakhanchi, Brahmin, Pawora Magers Motipur Balapur Hill migrantsChhetri, Dalit, Rana, Magar Gheruwa Tharuare in majority whereas Tharu Banganga Uptaha Hill migrantsand hill migrants Brahmin Sukumbasi Tole Tharu Kapilvastu Kopuwa Loharibagiya Hill migrantsand Chhetri in are in majority Bankasiya Tharuin Kapilvastu (Please refer table Niglihawa Jarlaiya Tarai caste people2). Harnampur Tharu Source: Field Study, 20072.2.3 LanguageNepali language is mostly Table 3: Means of Livelihood in Studied VDCsspoken in Arghakhanchi while VDCs Sources of livelihood (in percentage)Tharu is the major language Agriculture Seasonal Service Businessspoken in Kapilvastu. Apart /livestock labourfrom Nepali language, some Subarnkhal 86 6 5 3 Simalpani 91 6 2 1people use their mother tongue Motipur 78 4 9 9within their families and Banganga 72 5 12 11societies. Kopuwa 76 6 10 8 Niglihawa 81 5 6 82.2.4 Livelihood pattern AVR % 80.6 5.3 7.3 6.6The livelihood of majority of Source: FGDs, 2007the population depends upon 3 Tarai Non Dalit includes Maurya, Yadav, Thakur, Mishra, Rad/ Kurmi, Gupta, Gosain, Kumhal, Kandu, Gadariya, Sahani/ Mahi/ Godiya, Sonar, Mali, Bhujwa. 4 Tarai Dalit includes Bhangi, Pasi, Luniya, Dhobi, Lohar, Bishwakarma, Baskhor, Chamar, Badhahi, Bahi, Bari, Khatik, Kalwar and Gaddi. 20
  21. 21. agriculture/livestock (80.6%) followed by seasonal labour (5.3%) and GOs and NGOsservices (7.3%) and business (6.6%). The VDC wise means of livelihood is given in Table3.Majority of the people depend upon agriculture and livestock to run their livelihood.Seasonal labour, services and business are other sources of livelihood.2.2.5 Food sufficiency statusThe level of food sufficiency is very miserable. In an average, only 23% HHs have foodsufficiency for the year round and 18% HHshave no food sufficiency even for 2 months Table 4: Well-being ranking VDCs Food sufficiency months (in %)(Please refer table 4). The food sufficiency 12 and 6-11 2-5 > 2months are decreasing with the increasing moreflooding and inundation problem. The level of Subarnkhal 15 16 43 26food sufficiency is worst among the farmers Simalpani 17 21 44 18 Motipur 28 34 24 16who reside along the Banganga riverbank Banganga 30 36 28 6because of increasing events of flood every Kopuwa 26 30 27 17year. Niglihawa 22 28 23 27 23 27.5 31.5 18.3 Source: Field Study, 20072.2.6 Seasonal migration patternIn search of alternative employment opportunities many people mostly youth areforced to go outside the village, mostly nearby cities within Nepal and India, leavingwomen, children and elderly people at home alone. In such a situation, left over peopleare becoming further vulnerable from disaster because of their poor coping capacities.Seasonal migration normally peaks during November to January, after harvesting of thepaddy fields and broadcasting of the winter crop mostly wheat, mustard and maize.Some go even early before the paddy plantation. As far as possible, male familymembers opt to stay at home to attend to rebuilding and securing their housing beforethe seasonal migration (Marcus Moench and Ajaya Dixit, 2007).People started to migrate seasonally in Table 5: Trends of seasonal migration by VDCsseeking alternative income source VDCs Seasonal migration (in percentage) > 2 1-2 Only one Occasionallysince the cases of hazards are in Yrs Yrs seasonincreasing trends. It was also observed Subarnkhal 12 35 45 8that seasonal migration is far and Simalpani 8 37 49 6 Motipur 3 56 32 7wide. In every HH, one or more family Banganga 7 49 28 16members are away for earning some Kopuwa 14 43 34 7income during some period of the year Niglihawa 4 16 62 18(please refer table 5). The income secures AVR % 8 40 42 10 Source: Field Study, 2007a certain level and therewith foodsecurity but the earning even does not become sufficient to pay back loan and to run thefamily and house reconstruction (ibid). The main reasons for the seasonal migration asshared by the community are as follows: 21
  22. 22. • Flooding, inundation and sedimentation cause the failure of crop production. • With the population pressure, land is fragmented. The small plot of land is not sufficient to produce adequate grains for the family. • Inadequate opportunities of on-farm and off farm labour within the village. • Loss of livestock due to out break of diseases. • Low interest in agriculture due to continuous distress and trauma from landslide, flood, and sedimentation.Though people use indigenous knowledge about the flood forecasting, but they are notable to escape the impacts of flood always. With several cloudbursts in the uppercatchments, people assumed there is a possibility of heavy rain. With this otherprecautionary measures are taken.2.2.6 Land tenure systemThe land tenure system includes the categories of farmers in terms of having their ownland; own land plus sharecropping, landless plus sharecropping, and landless plusrented others land, etc. The overall scenario of the land tenure system by VDCs is givenin table 6.Table 6: Land tenure system by VDCs VDCs Land tenure system (in percentage) Own land Own land plus Landless plus Landless plus rented others sharecropping sharecropping land Subarnkhal 88 12 0 0 Simalpani 81 11 6 2 Motipur 72 16 7 5 Banganga 74 16 6 4 Kopuwa 63 15 15 7 Niglihawa 62 19 16 3 AVG % 73 15 8.5 3.5 Source: Field Study, 2007From the table, it is clear that about 73% families cultivate their own land bythemselves. Likewise, 15% families run their livelihood by cultivating their own landalong with cultivate others land by sharecropping, and so forth.2.3 Weather Characteristics of River BasinBanganga river basin is an umbrella in shape and is extended from the north of theEast-west Highway to trans-boundary region of Indo-Nepal in the south. It extends inbetween 270 41’ 30” to 270 54’ 07” North latitude and 800 04’ 22” to 800 18’ 56” Eastlongitudes.Most of its part extends over the east-south part of Arghakhanchi district. The southerndepositional zone is called fan (Bhavar/inner Tarai) and it lies in northern side of 22
  23. 23. Kapilbastu. The total area of the basin is about 210 Km2, out of which around 85% lies inthe hill slope and the valley and the rest in fan and Tarai region (Please refer the map 1).The altitude of basin varies from 125m in the south to 2256 m in the north. The averageslope of the basin is 28o. The basin has high potential to erosion and mass wasting variesfrom place to place (Ghimire, 2001). The Banganga River and Dhunger Khola and theirtributaries are the major river draining in the Banganga basin. The Banganga Riveroriginates from the southern slope of the Mahabharat Range in the northwest and flowstowards the south and then towards the east and join with Dhungre khola flowing fromsouthern slope of the Mahabharat Range in north east side. The average drainagedensity of the basin is 3.8 km/km2.A study carried out in 2001 shows that the agricultural land is increased by 85% from1954 to 1990 whereas the forest land is decreased by 13.25% in the basin (Ghimire, 2001).This massive Map 1: Location Map of the Banganga River Basinalteration incultivated land andforest coverage Location Banganga watershed Nreflects into adverse S # Badachour Jaluke S # Ghartisaraimpacts on the S # S # Pakri Khola S # Amja S # Thada S # Rajausa S #hydrological and Mandre S # S # S # Kudapani Subarnakhal Halde S # Bahune Khola S # S # S # Ghorli_Khola Simle Malaranienvironmental S # S # Bharatpur Patuwachour Bhedamare S # Dangre S # S #processes in the Bahunkharka S # Neta_kharka S # Tallo Gangakhola S # Bhakari Dhunga S # Panidandabasin. S # S # Khursane Sattyawati S # S # Simalpani Gandi S # Karechuli S # Dhungri KholagauThe distribution of Nepalsoil and rock types S # Boundarythat determines the Pawara Rivers or streams Trailspotential of the S # Villagehazardsgeologically is S # Udayapur 2 0 Scale 2 4 Kilometersshown in the table S # Nanda_Nagar S # S # S # Logai Bairiya7. Map 1 Source: Topsheets, scale 1:25,000; Topographical Survey Department, 1993The VDCs of the lower catchments are suffering from several water induced disasterslike flood, inundation, and epidemic whereas landslides and bush fires are otherhazards in the upper catchments. Monsoon rainfall is the primary cause of flooding. 23
  24. 24. Table 7: Rock and soil types in the watershedRock or soil types Area (ha) PercentageAlluvial fans, talus, colluviums 1133.2 5.5Alluvium deposited or reworked by rivers 1774.85 8.4Upper Siwaliks 1091.66 5.3Middle Siwaliks 5707.35 27.5Lower Siwaliks 4882.67 23.6Bhaiskotta khola Sand stone and Shale 2424.29 11.7Black and Carboneous shale 214.68 1.0Ridhhkhola-Dhatibang Dolomities 932.45 9.3Supa Khola Purpule shale 1602.03 7.7Total 20733.18 100Source: Aryal (1978) 24
  25. 25. Chapter 3 Objectives, Methods and Outline of ReportThis chapter briefly discusses the overall objective of the study and the methodologyused during its different phases. The chapter later gives the general outline of thereport.3.1 Objectives of the studyThe overall objectives of the study are to: • Identify how climate changes are noticed or observed by poor and excluded communities over a period of time particularly in the sectors like: agriculture, livestock, health, water, forest and biodiversity, and • Look at the impacts and effects made by these changes in the communities and their community based adaptation strategies.3.2 Methodology usedThe broad framework for analysis was to assess the status and situation on each of thekey areas outlined in the terms of reference. The Participatory Vulnerability Analysis(PVA) was the main guiding tool to collect field level information.3.2.1 Review of Relevant literature and InformationIn order to broaden the ideas and concept about the study, relevant reports anddocuments were reviewed. In addition to these, study reports, reports of otherorganizations related to DRR, climate change, climate change adaptation, and existingpolicy and strategy related to DRR were also reviewed to understand the issues andconcerns of risks and vulnerabilities. Consultation meeting with Women inAs part of the review of secondary Upstream VDCsinformation collection, climatic related datalike temperatures and rainfall of the relevantstations within the basin were collected fromDoHM of GoN. A very less number ofstations lie in the basins. Stations of Index are0715 at 1760 amsl in Arghakhanchi district,0721 at 200m amsl and 0716 at 90m amsl werechosen for Kapilvastu for this study.The length of records of rainfall data fromthese stations is good in climatic analysis because it insufficient to make such climaticanalysis if the data availability is for less than 30 years, But a length of record oftemperature in climatic station (Index 0721) is not significant for the climatic analysis;since it is only available for 20 years. The records of temperature data especially dailyminimum temperature for most of the years are not available at the climatic stations in 25
  26. 26. the basin. However, the trend of temperature around the region of the basin wasattempted from different literatures. Risk-Vulnerability Mapping of Upstream VDCsAnd the maximum temperature trendbased on 20 years data of Index 0721 hasalso been analyzed. The temporalvariations of annual rainfall at eachselected stations were plotted andstudied separately. The mean monthlyrainfall has been performed for all thoseselected stations. To do this, statisticalanalysis of rainfall, ‘EXCEL’ from theMicrosoft Office Software has beenused.3.2.2 Round table discussionSeveral round table interaction meetings were organized between NDRC team and Sr.Theme Leader, EDM/ActionAid Nepal (AAN) to understand key issues related tostudy and its outputs. These interactions meetings were helpful in finalizing the studydesign and field work for team.3.2.3 Building Rapport with local level stakeholdersPreliminary meetings were Risk-Vulnerability Mapping of Downstream VDCsorganized with local levelstakeholders to share the purpose ofthe study. It was useful to select thestudy VDCs and clusters within theVDCs. The meeting decided tochoose two VDCs fromArghakhanchi and four VDCs fromKapilvastu district as sampledVDCs. Then, request letters werereceived from these VDCs to carryout this comprehensive study.3.2.4 Modality of the selection of VDCsRiver basin concept was used while selecting the study VDCs. The diversity in terms ofcaste, ethnicity, hill migrants and indigenous Tharu and Madhesi communities wastaken while selecting the clusters within VDCs. It has helped to explore the perspectivesand issues of different people on climate change, its impacts in peoples lives andlivelihood and associated adaptation strategies.3.2.5 Design Instruments, Checklist and Guide QuestionsThe NDRC team then prepared the checklists and guide questions to collect primary 26
  27. 27. information from the field. Through the induction meeting, those checklists wereshared with AAN partners in Kapilvastu like Sahaj Nepal and Siddartha CommunityDevelopment Centre along with the overall concept of the study. Amendments on thechecklists and guide questions were made on the basis of their feedback andsuggestions.The checklists and guide questionswere then tested in the field in Time line and trend analysis of downstream VDCsorder to make them more realistic, Date Disaster Effects Trendssimple and to overcome (BS) 2019 Flood 26 houses were collapsed, 68 Iduplication before commissioning bigha of land was eroded by riverin the real fieldwork. 2028 Flood 10 bigha of land I 2031 Flood 15 bigha of land I 2030 Fire 2 houses (Bhusal and Pokhrel) I3.2.6 PVA at Community Level 2032 Flood 1 house was collapsed, 30 bigha IIn order to examine and map out of land was eroded by riverthe climate change adaptation by 2033 Flood 35 houses were collapsed, 25 Ipoor, women, and excluded bigha of land was eroded by river 2034 Hailstone Damage of crops Dcommunities focusing DRR, 2041 Cold Damage of winter crops, losses Dvarious tools and techniques of wave of livestock, 2 children were died,PVA were used. The team of elderly people were in difficult situationNDRC stayed 7-8 days in each 2055 Flood 5 kathha of land was eroded by IVDC and the community to collect riverprimary information using PVA 2057 Flood 8 kathha of land was eroded by I rivertools, which are discussed here 2058 Drought Outburst of epidemic, Iunder. production reduced by 70% 2059 Flood 10 kathha of land was eroded by Ia. Transects walks river 2061 Drought crop reduced by 45% IThese walks were also organized to 2060 Flood 5 kathha of land was eroded by Ifamiliarize with the area and the riverpeople that were mostly affected 2062 Flood 15 kathha of land was eroded by I river, erosion of nurseryfrom the flood, landslides, fire, Source: Field study, 2007droughts, epidemics, etc. Thisexercise was also useful to assessthe changes in land use pattern of the study clusters. 27
  28. 28. b. Vulnerability and hazard mappingVulnerability and hazard mappings exercise was found useful to know the context ofpeoples vulnerabilities from climate change perspective and their adaptation strategies.In the exercise, people were requested to show the social infrastructures along withmajor vulnerabilities to disasters, the most affected areas from climate change, etc bysketching the village map in the ground. The discussion was then focused on the impactof climate change on agriculture land, grazing fields, community ponds, forest, waterresources etc in the map. Before that, role was divided among the NDRC study team toact as facilitators, recorders and observers. The symbols were made on the basis ofagreed consensus of the people.Once the mapping was made on Time line and trend analysis ofthe ground, it was copied in the Upstream VDCs Date Disaster Effects Trendslarge sheet of paper. The map was (BS)again presented in the mass and 2029, Landslide 14 ropani of land damaged Inecessary corrections were made. 30 2032 Landslide 34 ropani of land damaged I 2032 Landslide 4 houses were collapsed, 12 Ic. Timeline and Trend Analysis ropani of land damagedCommunities in each VDC were 2033 Landslide 12 houses were collapsed, Iasked about the major 23 ropani of land damaged 2035 Hailstone Damage of wheat crops Dphenomenon including history of 2044 Cold Damage of winter crops and Darea in terms of the disasters wave losses of livestockoccurrence, the experiences of the 2055 Landslide 34 ropani of land damaged Iclimate change, etc. The purpose 2057 Landslide 5 ropani of land damaged I 2058 Drought Outburst of epidemic, Iwas to see and to explain the production reduced by 70%causes and consequences of climate 2059 Landslide 42 ropani of land damaged Ichange and adaptation strategies of 2061 Drought Crop reduced by 60 % I 2060 Landslide 58 ropani of land damaged Ilocal people. Local people shared 2062 Landslide 9 ropani of land damaged Ithe dates and the type of disastersthat have occurred and the corresponding results/impacts. Elderly people contributedthe information from decades back. The following process was used to explore thetimeline and time trends. • Initially, the purpose of the exercise Venn diagram of Downstream VDCs was shared. Once the people knew about the purpose of information collection, they selected the elderly and knowledgeable people both men and women to list out the major events, their effects and trends. • In case of confusion of years, agreed communities benchmarks were established that were later verified from other knowledgeable people. Source: Field study 2007 • The role played by the communities 28
  29. 29. during each disaster event was also recorded. The climate change phenomenon and its impacts were discussed. Their increasing and decreasing trends were also discussed. • At the end of the exercise, the lead person shared the timeline and trends to the Venn diagram of Upstream VDCs community for the purpose of verification.The major disaster events and their correlationwith climate change were located with the timeline of the disasters and from some informalmeetings and interviews; a trend analysis ofthese disasters and their impacts on climatechange was also carried out. This informationprovided an opportunity to make further Source: Field study, 2007analysis and to recommend the measures at theend.d. Venn RelationshipVenn diagrams were prepared sitting with the community members based on differentinformation on the existing support of various institutions. The following process wasused to assess the Venn relationships: • The participants listed down the major organisations working in the VDCs with their detail information. • Discussion was made on how the Seasonal calendar of downstream VDCs absence of effective Major Months organisation/institution further Incident 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 promoted peoples vulnerability to Flood River Cutting impacts of climate change. Fire • The participants were requested to Starvation identify the most important, least Loan Diseases important, the more accessible and Fetching least accessible institutions at the time firewood of peoples need to reduce the effects Thunderbolt Inundation of climate change. Freed animal • Further, they were asked to place Snake bite institutions based on their Cold wave interrelationship (one way and two- Encephalitis, Malaria way relationship, near and far, more Eye disease, access and less access etc). dysentery • The institutional mapping (Venn Source: field work, 2007 diagram) was then later presented in the mass for its verification. 29
  30. 30. e. Seasonal CalendarSeasons are the integral parts of peoples lives and they exert an important impact uponthe livelihood of the local people. In these sites, the calendar reflected the perceptions ofthe local people regarding seasonal variations in the various aspects and theirrelationship in climate change. It helped to identify heavy workload periods, periods ofrelative ease, credit, diseases, food security, wage availability and possibility ofoccurrence of some disaster like fire, thunderstorm, flood, landslides, experience ofclimate change impacts, etc. It alsoestablished the pattern of crop Seasonal calendar of upstream VDCscultivation and vulnerability, crop Major Incident Months 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12diversification and changes in Landslideclimate. It helped the community River cuttingto identify the most vulnerable Fire Starvationgroup according to seasonality. For Loanthis, the following process was Diseasesadopted. Fetching firewood • People were asked to list Thunderbolt Snake bite down the major events of Cold wave the year and then fit it in to Encephalitis, Malaria calendar. Eye disease, cholera, dysentery • It was discussed that how Source: field work, 2007 seasonality propagated vulnerabilities and how people coped with such vulnerabilities. • At the end of the discussion, the calendar was shared in the mass for the purpose of triangulation.f. Problem Tree for Casual AnalysisCasual analysis was very important to know the types of problems and their underlyingcauses and effects of climate change. The participants were mobilised to identify majorproblems and their cause and effects. For this, pair wise ranking was made to identifythe most crucial problems for climate change. For clarity, the facilitators drew the sketchof tree by showing its three parts: the root, stem and branches. The stem wassymbolised as problem, roots as causes and branches as effects.This exercise was able to analyse the level of awareness of the people at one hand andon the other hand to identify the areas for interventions for the community actions toensure that proper DRR interventions are implemented in the community.g. Focus Group Discussions (FGDs)The FGDs were organized to find potential areas where the communities needed tofocus in the coming days for DRR and climate change adaptation. The objective of thisexercise was to find out the current practices and plans of making communities saferfrom climate change adaptation perspective. 30
  31. 31. h. Key informant interviewThese interviews were made with Teachers, ex-VDC representatives, social elites,mother groups, local NGOs and CBOs representatives, saving and credit groups, waterusers association and community forest users group representatives. They providedkey information and shared their reflections about climate Problem tree: Upstreamchange and the adaptation approaches to reduce its impacts. VDCsFGDs were organised with male, female and mixed groupstaking both hill migrants and indigenous Tarai peopleseparately. The gender, social inclusion and differentoccupations were kept in mind while selecting theparticipants for FGDs. The key findings arrived from KIIsand FGDs were later shared in the same mass meeting inorder to ensure authenticity of the information, its reliabilityand validity.3.2 7 Meeting with Government StakeholdersThe perspective of different stakeholders on disaster riskreduction and climate change adaptation was important to know. Therefore, meetings wereorganized with district level stakeholders such as Agriculture Service Centre, Livestock ServiceCentre, Forest Range Post, Sub-health Post, and some non-government organisations(NGOs)/Community Based Organisation (CBOs) and ex-Village Development Committee(VDC) officials. The main purpose of these meetings was to record the perception and viewson the climate change impacts and adaptation strategies to Problem tree: Downstreamreduce the risks. VDCs3.2.8 Reporting back to the CommunitiesOnce the information and data were collected throughvarieties of tools and techniques in the presence of smallgroups as well as at the individual interview, massmeeting was organized at the end of PVA exercise topresent all the PVA findings in each VDC. The purpose ofthis exercise was to share main findings about the causes,effects, impacts of climate change and their adaptationstrategies adopted by the communities and to motivatethe communities in the various aspects of climate changeadaptation process.3.2.9 Analysis the VulnerabilitiesIn order to arrive into specific conclusion, the information gathered from varioussources was synthesized, categorized and analyzed before final write up of report. Allissues related to climate change, its causes, effects, impacts and adaptation strategies 31
  32. 32. adopted by the communities especially, poor, women, excluded explored from PVAprocess were categorized in to various forms in order to derive key findings, conclusionand to make major recommendations.3.3 Outline of the reportThe report is organized into seven sections. The first section provides the scenario ofclimate change in global and national context and introduction of Nepal and study areawith the second section. The third section covers objectives and methods while theclimatic change trends in Nepal and study area is discussed in the fourth section. Theimpact of climate change in different sectors and adaptation strategies adopted by localpeople is discussed in fifth section. Conclusion and recommendation is given in thesixth section. The last section of the report presents the annexes. 32

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