District vulnerability from

Heat and Cold Wave                                                                                   Disaste...

Extreme weather events such as droughts, storms,                           Extreme 24 hours rainfall (mm)

                                                                                         Some Undertaken Loc...

                                                                                                 No rainfall...
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2. dr. usha napa dp-net


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2. dr. usha napa dp-net

  1. 1. 4/23/2010 Activities Inception Workshop DP- DP-Net Consultation Induction Workshop Literature Review Workshop Transect Exercise (Gandak, Karnali and Koshi)) Regional Workshop Synthesis Workshop Climate Change and Disaster Wider Reference group consultation workshop Consultation with the group members Climatic Condition Introduction Regions Ecological zones Climate Country Background High Himal Mountain Tundra-type & Arctic High Mountains Alpine/Sub-alpine Middle mountain Hill Cool temperate monsoon/Warm temperate monsoon Siwalik Hills Terai Hot monsoon & Subtropical Terai Hot monsoon & Tropical 600 Disaster Scenario 500 496.5 Rainfall (mm) 423.2 400 Climate Induced Disasters 300 295 263.5 Floods/flash floods/Glacial lake outburst 200 flood/Avalanche 140.6 100 21.9 21 9 26 34.5 60.4 67.5 11.5 17 Landslides 0 Forest fire/wild fire Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Months Hailstorm/Windstrorm/Thunderbolt Drought Outbreak of certain diseases Average of 30 years data (1976-2005), Monthly Rainfall (166 stations) Practical Action, 2009 1
  2. 2. 4/23/2010 District vulnerability from Floods/flash floods Floods Impact is all over the country Sarlahi Among 75 districts, 49 are prone to floods Rautahat Udayapur Rupandehi High impact in Terai Chitwan Tanahu Saptari Kailali Associated with rise in river bed level, bank cutting, Dhanusa Kanchanpur siltation and deposition of silt on the fertile land ilt ti dd iti f ilt th f til l d Mahottari Syangja Sunsari Dailekh Higher loss of lives and properties Sindhuli Lalitpur Makwanpur Dang More impact on Agriculture production, Parsa Bara Infrastructure, Destruction of country transportation Siraha Banke Morang Sindhupalchok network Jhapa Kavrepalanchok Nawalparasi Kathmandu Bardiya Kaski Glacial lake outburst floods Landslides/debris flow By breaking the natural moraine dams Higher loss of lives (211 lives per annum) Impact on the down stream community High Impact on mountain and hill region GLOF potential lakes Major Highway linking the roads are Tsho Rolpa, Imja, Thulagi, Lumding, Lower vulnerable Barun and West Chamjang District vulnerability from Thunderstorm/windstorm/hailstorm Landslides Thunderstorm- Claims lives Makwanpur Sankhuwasabha Nuwakot Windstorm- Claims lives and public Dhading Syangja Gulmi properties Kavrepalanchok Palpa Sindhupalchok Myagdi Hailstorm- Destruction of crops specially in Lamjung Baglung Kaski Parbat the mountainous district Dolakha Solukhumbu Khotang Sindhuli Taplejung Dailekh Darchula Drought Okhaldhunga Ramechhap Gorkha Tanahu Affects a large number of populations Arghakhanchi Bhojpur Jajarkot Doti Out of 75 district 40 district are food deficit Panchthar 2
  3. 3. 4/23/2010 Heat and Cold Wave Disaster wise estimated losses (2001-2008) (2001- NRsx106 Lives killer Year Floods and Fires Wind, Hail and Thunderstorm Earthquake Now cold wave is getting severe Landslides Forest fire 2001 919.4 239.25 128.32 1.99 2002 251.09 246.25 38.69 3.82 2003 4169.51 94.74 11.91 0 Increasing tendency of forest fire 2004 234.78 734.96 20.17 0 Last year it claimed 43 lives and caused a loss of 2005 219.29 121.03 0.77 0 about Rs 134,415,000 2006 131.56 247.75 2.65 0 2007 1831.54 228.76 24.15 0.07 Outbreak of Certain Diseases 2008 1538.04 803.22 149.17 0 Impacts of Climate Change Pattern of temperature increase (1977- (1977-1994) Climate change will be expected to alter both rainfall and snowfall patterns. The temperature will increase and cause a warming over the entire country. The rate of temperature increase is greater in higher altitudes and in the winter. (Shrestha et al 1999) General Circulation Models (GCM) projections indicate an increase Districts with high increasing and decreasing trends of annual in temperature over Nepal of 0.5-2.0 °C, with a multi-model mean temperature of 1.4 °C, by the 2030s, rising to 3.0-6.3 °C, with a multi-model mean of 4.7 °C, by the 2090s. There is very little differentiation in Annual Temperature High increasing trend High decreasing trend projected multi-model mean temperature changes in different regions (East, Central, West) of Nepal. Maximum Dhankuta, Dadeldhura and Sankhuwasabha, Sunsari, GCM outputs suggest that extremely hot days (the hottest 5% of Okhaldhunga Nawalparasi, Banke, Bardiya days in the period 1970-1999) are projected to increase by up to 55% by the 2060s and 70% by the 2090s GCM outputs suggest that Minimum Lamjung, southern parts of Nuwakot, Doti, Sankhuwasabha and northern extremely hot nights (the hottest 5% of nights in the period 1970- Chitwan and Dhanusa parts of Nuwakot 1999) are projected to increase by up to 77% by the 2060s and 93% by the 2090. Mean Dhankuta and Lamjung Sankhuwasabha, Doti and northern parts of Nuwakot GCMs project a wide range of precipitation changes, especially in the monsoon: -14 to +40% by the 2030s increasing -52 to 135% by the 2090s 3
  4. 4. 4/23/2010 Extreme weather events such as droughts, storms, Extreme 24 hours rainfall (mm) floods/inundation, and avalanches are expected to increase along with river side erosion. distribution Glacial melt in Himalaya will increase flooding and avalanches (Dig Tsho GLOF event of 1985). This will be followed by decreased river flows and water supplies, as the glacier recede. The receding of the glacier will result changes in regional water resources and these are projected to have negative impacts on hydropower generation, irrigation, and drinking water supply, which exacerbates the already constrained access to water down streams. High intensity rainfall will trigger the landslides events on the hill and mountains regions. (Matatirtha landslide event of 2002) High intensity rainfall in the hill regions consequently causes floods in Terai (Flood events of 1993) Practical Action 2009 Due to decrease in gradient flow of river while entering Terai Factors Related to vulnerability plain from the steep hill region, Terai will be highly impacted with rise in river bed level, which consequently causes inundation and results in destruction of agriculture land. (Koshi Poverty and Economic hardship Inundation of 2008) Washing away big area of cultivated land along with the houses including livestock and inhabitants and damage to settlements Insufficient knowledge on disaster management/Low and disruption of other infrastructures in particular transport and literacy rates trade due to flooding is an additional potential impact of climate change. Influence on the agriculture, forestry, bio-diversity and outbreak I fl th i lt f t bi di it d tb k Poor quality physical infrastructure; prevalence of non- non of the certain water and vector borne diseases are also the other engineered construction potential impacts of the climate change. Temperature rise can accelerate drying of biomasses, which will increase the incidences of forest fires across the nation. (Last Inadequate forecasting facilities year forest fire, this year forest fire) Decrease rainfall, snowfall and increase of temperature will Unplanned settlement; development of settlements and increase the incidence of drought. public services in hazardous areas and marginal lands Deforestation/More dependency on natural resources Acts Inadequate awareness and concentration of Natural Calamity Relief Act 1982 knowledge only in academic centers Though amended twice (1989, 1992) still mostly focused on the rescue and relief Rapid R id population growth, Population l ti th P l ti migration/displacement with the deterioration of Local Self-Governance Act 1999 livelihood opportunities The duties and responsibilities of each of the local bodies (VDC, DDC and municipalities) are not clearly stated in disaster management Land degradation caused by human activities including build settlements, cultivation of steep slopes, fuel wood collection 4
  5. 5. 4/23/2010 Some Undertaken Local Coping/Adaptation Option National Strategy for Disaster Risk Management (NSDRM) based on HFA principle Conduction of awareness raising programme The focus of disaster management in Nepal is changing Provision of irrigation system to cope with from reactive (relief and response) to proactive (preparedness) risk reduction, as can be seen in the changing rainfall NSDRM Mapping of flood hazards Afforestation The Ministry of Home Affairs (MoHA) is the national Priority given for the preparedness agency responsible for coordination of various aspects of disaster management, including preparedness, programme response, recovery and mitigation of disasters. Construction of embankments, check dams and spurs to limit the negative impacts of flooding and river site cutting Rain Water Harvesting and Soil Moisture Suggested Adaptation options Conservation Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation options with HFA Improvement of Degraded Land principle Mitigation of River Bank Cutting Developing and implementing land use/zoning policies Maintaining up to date hazard and vulnerability maps Slope Stabilization and Management Training and capacity building for disaster and water resource Construction of house with higher plinth level management Working with the community to increase p g y public awareness and Initiation of programme like food for work for post develop early warning systems and evacuation plans disaster phase Afforestation and reforestation programs (for reduction of flooding/landslide risk) Initiation of the community fund in some places Proactive and inclusive efforts to prioritize the need of the poor women Forecasting and disaster preparedness for GLOF, flooding and drought events Livelihood diversification Identified Adaptation Option Cross-cutting issues such as Gender and Social inclusion, Climate Impacts Adaptation options Human Rights and Protection, need to be considered in the Change policy level Increase Floods 1. Enhance the capacity of all the water-induced disaster related institutions in Coordination between all the stakeholders to lessen the gap intense 2. Strengthen early warning system and forecasting between the grass-root level public and policy makers rainfall 3. Promotion of reforestation/afforestation programme Proper training towards the adopting proper agriculture 4. Implementation of structural measures practices, watershed management, agro-forestry, soil 5. Conservation of Churia/Siwalik regions conservation, wetland management and fire prevention techniques, as well as supporting sustainable use of natural 6. 6 Strengthen the capacity and coordination of CBOs NGOs INGOs local CBOs, NGOs, INGOs, authorities, professional societies for disaster management networking resources and biodiversity conservation Revision and proper implementation of the existing national 7. Hazard/vulnerability mapping and zoning and international act and policy. 8. Discouraging and restricting settlements in high risks-areas Implementation of hydro-meteorological information system 9. Establishment and management of emergency supply ware house Enhancement of indigenous knowledge and technology 10. Making preparations for emergency response, relief and rehabilitation measures 11. Activation of inundation committee 12. Clearing water logging 13. Resettlement of vulnerable community 14. Implementation of the building codes 5
  6. 6. 4/23/2010 No rainfall/Increase of temperature Drought 1. Identification of Potential drought prone area Landslides 1. Hazard mapping and Risk zoning 2. Forecasting 2. Awareness raising 3. Discouraging and restricting people living in high risk areas 3. Livelihood diversification 4. Distribution of drought resistant crops species 4. Resettlement of the vulnerable community 5. Promotion of afforestation /reforestation programme and bioengineering 5. Provision of food aid technique Forest Fire 1. Awareness raising 2. Conservation/promotion of afforestation reforestation 6. Implementation of structural measures programme 3. Forest fire control 7. Inventory on landslides Increase of Temperature GLOF/Avalanche 1. 1 GLOF/Avalanche mitigation 8. Implementation and promotion of water harvesting system and conservation f ponds 2.Awareness Raising 3. Early warning system and forecasting 9. Improvement of the degraded land Heat wave 1. Awareness raising 10. Promotion of slope stabilization and proper agriculture practice 2. Reforestation/Afforestation Outbreak of the 1. Awareness raising Other climatic factors Cold wave 1. Awareness raising epidemics 2. Provision of the warm clothes 2. Provision of the food/clean drinking water Hailstorm/ 1. Provision of Insurance Windstorm and 3. Promotion of Community level waste management Thunderbolt 2. Community based fund 3. Livelihood diversification 4. Provision of emergency health care 4. Weather forecasting Thank you very much 6