DP-Net Consultation Workshop Climate Change and Disaster
Transect Exercise (Gandak, Karnali and Koshi)
Wider Reference group consultation workshop
Consultation with the group members
Hot monsoon & Tropical Terai Hot monsoon & Subtropical Terai Siwalik Hills Cool temperate monsoon/Warm temperate monsoon Hill Middle mountain Alpine/Sub-alpine High Mountains Tundra-type & Arctic Mountain High Himal Climate Ecological zones Regions
Average of 30 years data (1976-2005), Monthly Rainfall (166 stations)
Practical Action, 2009
Climate Induced Disasters
Floods/flash floods/Glacial lake outburst flood/Avalanche
Forest fire/wild fire
Outbreak of certain diseases
Impact is all over the country
Among 75 districts, 49 are prone to floods
High impact in Terai
Associated with rise in river bed level, bank cutting, siltation and deposition of silt on the fertile land
Higher loss of lives and properties
More impact on Agriculture production, Infrastructure, Destruction of country transportation network
Sarlahi Rautahat Chitwan Saptari Dhanusa Mahottari Sunsari Sindhuli Makwanpur Parsa Siraha Morang Jhapa Nawalparasi Bardiya Udayapur Rupandehi Tanahu Kailali Kanchanpur Syangja Dailekh Lalitpur Dang Bara Banke Sindhupalchok Kavrepalanchok Kathmandu Kaski District vulnerability from Floods District vulnerability from Floods
Glacial lake outburst floods
By breaking the natural moraine dams
Impact on the down stream community
GLOF potential lakes
Tsho Rolpa, Imja, Thulagi, Lumding, Lower Barun and West Chamjang
Climate change will be expected to alter both rainfall and snowfall patterns.
The temperature will increase and cause a warming over the entire country.
The rate of temperature increase is greater in higher altitudes and in the winter.
Pattern of temperature increase (1977-1994) (Shrestha et al 1999)
Districts with high increasing and decreasing trends of annual temperature Sankhuwasabha, Doti and northern parts of Nuwakot Dhankuta and Lamjung Mean Doti, Sankhuwasabha and northern parts of Nuwakot Lamjung, southern parts of Nuwakot, Chitwan and Dhanusa Minimum Sankhuwasabha, Sunsari, Nawalparasi, Banke, Bardiya Dhankuta, Dadeldhura and Okhaldhunga Maximum High decreasing trend High increasing trend Annual Temperature
General Circulation Models (GCM) projections indicate an increase in temperature over Nepal of 0.5-2.0 °C, with a multi-model mean of 1.4 °C, by the 2030s, rising to 3.0-6.3 °C, with a multi-model mean of 4.7 °C, by the 2090s. There is very little differentiation in projected multi-model mean temperature changes in different regions (East, Central, West) of Nepal .
GCM outputs suggest that extremely hot days (the hottest 5% of days in the period 1970-1999) are projected to increase by up to 55% by the 2060s and 70% by the 2090s GCM outputs suggest that extremely hot nights (the hottest 5% of nights in the period 1970-1999) are projected to increase by up to 77% by the 2060s and 93% by the 2090 .
GCMs project a wide range of precipitation changes, especially in the monsoon: -14 to +40% by the 2030s increasing -52 to 135% by the 2090s
Extreme weather events such as droughts, storms, floods/inundation, and avalanches are expected to increase along with river side erosion.
Glacial melt in Himalaya will increase flooding and avalanches (Dig Tsho GLOF event of 1985). This will be followed by decreased river flows and water supplies, as the glacier recede.
The receding of the glacier will result changes in regional water resources and these are projected to have negative impacts on hydropower generation, irrigation, and drinking water supply, which exacerbates the already constrained access to water down streams.
High intensity rainfall will trigger the landslides events on the hill and mountains regions. (Matatirtha landslide event of 2002)
High intensity rainfall in the hill regions consequently causes floods in Terai (Flood events of 1993)
Extreme 24 hours rainfall (mm) distribution Practical Action 2009
Due to decrease in gradient flow of river while entering Terai plain from the steep hill region, Terai will be highly impacted with rise in river bed level, which consequently causes inundation and results in destruction of agriculture land. (Koshi Inundation of 2008)
Washing away big area of cultivated land along with the houses including livestock and inhabitants and damage to settlements and disruption of other infrastructures in particular transport and trade due to flooding is an additional potential impact of climate change.
Influence on the agriculture, forestry, bio-diversity and outbreak of the certain water and vector borne diseases are also the other potential impacts of the climate change.
Temperature rise can accelerate drying of biomasses, which will increase the incidences of forest fires across the nation. (Last year forest fire, this year forest fire)
Decrease rainfall, snowfall and increase of temperature will increase the incidence of drought.
Factors Related to vulnerability
Poverty and Economic hardship
Insufficient knowledge on disaster management/Low literacy rates
Poor quality physical infrastructure; prevalence of non-engineered construction
Inadequate forecasting facilities
Unplanned settlement; development of settlements and public services in hazardous areas and marginal lands
Deforestation/More dependency on natural resources
Inadequate awareness and concentration of knowledge only in academic centers
Rapid population growth, Population migration/displacement with the deterioration of livelihood opportunities
Land degradation caused by human activities including build settlements, cultivation of steep slopes, fuel wood collection
Natural Calamity Relief Act 1982
Though amended twice (1989, 1992) still mostly focused on the rescue and relief
Local Self-Governance Act 1999
The duties and responsibilities of each of the local bodies (VDC, DDC and municipalities) are not clearly stated in disaster management
National Strategy for Disaster Risk Management (NSDRM) based on HFA principle
The focus of disaster management in Nepal is changing from reactive (relief and response) to proactive (preparedness) risk reduction, as can be seen in the NSDRM
The Ministry of Home Affairs (MoHA) is the national agency responsible for coordination of various aspects of disaster management, including preparedness, response, recovery and mitigation of disasters.
Some Undertaken Local Coping/Adaptation Option
Conduction of awareness raising programme
Provision of irrigation system to cope with changing rainfall
Mapping of flood hazards
Priority given for the preparedness programme
Construction of embankments, check dams and spurs to limit the negative impacts of flooding and river site cutting
Rain Water Harvesting and Soil Moisture Conservation
Improvement of Degraded Land
Mitigation of River Bank Cutting
Slope Stabilization and Management
Construction of house with higher plinth level
Initiation of programme like food for work for post disaster phase
Initiation of the community fund in some places
Suggested Adaptation options
Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation options with HFA principle
Developing and implementing land use/zoning policies
Maintaining up to date hazard and vulnerability maps
Training and capacity building for disaster and water resource management
Working with the community to increase public awareness and develop early warning systems and evacuation plans
Afforestation and reforestation programs (for reduction of flooding/landslide risk)
Proactive and inclusive efforts to prioritize the need of the poor women
Forecasting and disaster preparedness for GLOF, flooding and drought events
Cross-cutting issues such as Gender and Social inclusion, Human Rights and Protection, need to be considered in the policy level
Coordination between all the stakeholders to lessen the gap between the grass-root level public and policy makers
Proper training towards the adopting proper agriculture practices, watershed management, agro-forestry, soil conservation, wetland management and fire prevention techniques, as well as supporting sustainable use of natural resources and biodiversity conservation
Revision and proper implementation of the existing national and international act and policy.
Implementation of hydro-meteorological information system
Enhancement of indigenous knowledge and technology
Identified Adaptation Option 14. Implementation of the building codes 13. Resettlement of vulnerable community 12. Clearing water logging 11. Activation of inundation committee 10. Making preparations for emergency response, relief and rehabilitation measures 9. Establishment and management of emergency supply ware house 8. Discouraging and restricting settlements in high risks-areas 7. Hazard/vulnerability mapping and zoning 6. Strengthen the capacity and coordination of CBOs, NGOs, INGOs, local authorities, professional societies for disaster management networking 5. Conservation of Churia/Siwalik regions 4. Implementation of structural measures 3. Promotion of reforestation/afforestation programme 2. Strengthen early warning system and forecasting 1. Enhance the capacity of all the water-induced disaster related institutions Floods Increase in intense rainfall Adaptation options Impacts Climate Change
4. Provision of emergency health care 3. Promotion of Community level waste management 2. Provision of the food/clean drinking water 1. Awareness raising Outbreak of the epidemics 10. Promotion of slope stabilization and proper agriculture practice 9. Improvement of the degraded land 8. Implementation and promotion of water harvesting system and conservation ponds 7. Inventory on landslides 6. Implementation of structural measures 5. Promotion of afforestation /reforestation programme and bioengineering technique 4. Resettlement of the vulnerable community 3. Discouraging and restricting people living in high risk areas 2. Awareness raising 1. Hazard mapping and Risk zoning Landslides
4. Weather forecasting 3. Livelihood diversification 2. Community based fund 1. Provision of Insurance Hailstorm/ Windstorm and Thunderbolt 2. Provision of the warm clothes 1. Awareness raising Cold wave Other climatic factors 2. Reforestation/Afforestation 1. Awareness raising Heat wave 3. Early warning system and forecasting 2.Awareness Raising 1. GLOF/Avalanche mitigation GLOF/Avalanche Increase of Temperature 3. Forest fire control 2. Conservation/promotion of afforestation reforestation programme 1. Awareness raising Forest Fire 5. Provision of food aid 4. Distribution of drought resistant crops species 3. Livelihood diversification 2. Forecasting 1. Identification of Potential drought prone area Drought No rainfall/Increase of temperature