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1. deepak presentation cca&drr
 

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    1. deepak presentation cca&drr 1. deepak presentation cca&drr Presentation Transcript

    • Disasters and Climate Change Scenario Rate of increase of human  Rate of Increase of Property  loss(1961‐1960 BS) loss(1961‐2060 BS) 7000 1200 1036 6000 1000 Human loss in % Property loss in % 800 5000 600 4000 410 2639 Rate of  400 3000 162 Increase of  200 21 2000 Property  0 0 16 0 1000 loss, 223 loss, 223 ‐200 0 ‐46 0 ‐80 ‐1000 Axis Title Heavy precipitations (rain or snow) snow) Storm (winds) (winds) River basin flooding Hot & cold spells Dust storms Droughts Hail&Lightning Flash floods Avalanches Mud & landslides
    • Humanitarian Impacts due to Hydro‐climatic Disasters  ( (Extreme Weather Impacts) p ) Human Loss 10 Year Death & Property loss Loss (Property loss) Death Property Linear Linear (Death) y = 346.98x - 789.87 R2 = 0 6693 P 0.6693 Property Loss t L y = 75434x - 230976 4500 800000 R2 = 0.6064 4000 700000 P r o p e r t y lo s s in t h o u s a n d 3500 600000 3000 500000 2500 400000 D e a th 2000 i Rs 300000 1500 200000 1000 500 100000 0 0 1961-70 1971-80 1981-90 1991-00 2001-10 2011-20 2021-30 2031-40 2041-50 2051-60 -500 -100000 -1000 -200000 Year Y Source : Paudel, D. 2006
    • Climate Change Scenario (adopted from NDR,2009) ( d df NDR 2009) • Nepal is the most vulnerable country to climate‐related  disasters due to increase in intensity and frequency of  disasters due to increase in intensity and frequency of weather hazards(abrupt climate change)‐IPCC, 2007; • Warming trends(1971‐94)‐ranging from 0.06 to 0.12 deg  cel; The hottest 5% of days and nights (1970‐1999); • GCM projection: increase in temp over Nepal of 0.5‐2 deg  cel by 2030 and rising to 3 0‐6 3 deg by 2090; by 2030 and rising to 3.0‐6.3 deg by 2090;  • The hottest days to be increased up to 55% by 2060s and  70% by 2090s; • The hottest nights to be increased up to 77% by 2060s and  93% by 2090s; • Precipitation changes in the monsoon: ‐14 to +40% by  h h b 2030s and increasing ‐52 to 135% by 2090s;
    • Climate Change  • IPCC defined "climate change" as: "a change of climate which is  attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the  composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to  natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods".  k|ToIf jf ck|ToIf ?kn] dfgljo lqmofsnfksf] sf/0fn] k[YjLsf jfo'd08nsf kYjLsf] jfod08nsf tTjx?df cfPsf] kl/jt{gn] jiff}{ b]lv cfPsf kl/jtgn jiff blv /lxcfPsf] k|fs[lts xfjfkfgLdf ePsf] kl/jt{gnfO{ g} Cli t Change elgG5 . Climate Ch • IPCC refers to any significant change in climatic elements (temp,  pptn or wind) long term for an extended period( decades or longer) pptn or wind) long‐term for an extended period( decades or longer) • Climate change refers to any significant change in measures of  climate (such as temperature, precipitation, or wind) lasting for an  extended period (decades or longer). extended period (decades or longer)
    • The Linkage: Climate Change and Climate  Disasters Anthropogenic (Global Warming) Climate Change( Abrupt Climate Change) Rise in LST and SST Variation in Precipitation Ice Melting and SLR Flood Drought Cyclone and Storm Surge Impacts on Livelihoods Assets (Loss of Property + Injury+ Death) Disasters
    • Linkages between CC and Disasters Linkages between CC and Disasters Disaster Or Risk = Hazard* X Vulnerability /(Capacity) Hazard* : ( Extreme weather events) as a Result of CC * ( ) CC affects disaster risk by two ways: 1.through the likely increase in  weather and climate hazards; weather and climate hazards; 2. Increase in vulnerability of communities to natural hazards  through Ecosystem Degradation‐reduction in water and food  availability and changes to livelihoods;  il bilit d h t li lih d
    • Climate Change leads weathers • Climate Variability: Unequal distribution of normal weather  system(amount, timing and intensity) with time and space • The intensity and frequency of rainfall varies with Space and Time The intensity and frequency of rainfall varies with Space and Time For example: annual ppt in Mahabharat region(2500‐3000mm) and  cloudburst causes heavy rain suddenly like 500mm/day‐such cloudbursts‐ may occur at intervals of about 8‐10 years(NDR,2009) • Extreme Rainfall Events • More heat waves More heat waves • Increased drought • Increased frequency of high ppt in particular regions • Increases in the number & intensity of strong cyclone • Higher temp and melting glaciers
    • Extreme Rainfall Events(>300 mm per day)‐ ( p y) Source: Paudel Deepak, 2001) Period AD Frequency(extre me rainfall) me rainfall) 1950‐1970 4 1971‐1980 19 1981‐1990 33 1991‐2000 20  (beyond 1997 adopted from  NDR,2009)
    • CCA and DRR CCA: The adjustment  DRR: Action taken to reduce  CCA: The adjustment DRR: Action taken to reduce in natural or human  the risk of disasters and the  adverse impacts of natural  adverse impacts of natural systems in response to  hazards through systematic  i actual or expected  efforts to analyze and  climatic stimuli or their  manage the causes of  disasters, including through  effects, which  , avoidance of hazards and  id fh d d moderated harm or  improved preparedness for  exploits beneficial  exploits beneficial adverse events(UNISDR,  adverse events(UNISDR opportunities (IPCC) 2004)
    • Adaptation and DRR Adaptation thro gh DRR HFA and Cost through DRR‐HFA and Cost‐ Effectiveness : Preparing risk assessments(HFA  5); Protecting Ecosystems(HFA4), Improving  5) Protecting Ecosystems(HFA4) Improving agricultural practices(HFA 4); Managing water  resources(HFA4); Building settlements in safe  resources(HFA4) Building settlements in safe zones; Developing early warning  systems(HFA2); Improving insurance coverage  systems(HFA2); Improving insurance coverage and Developing social safety nets(HFA4)
    • Existing DRR Disaster Response Impact Operation Post Disaster Recovery short and long Long terms Preparedness Pre Disaster Mitigation Development A Basic DMC,  Prevention
    • Adaptation to Climate Disaster Risk Disaster Response Impact Operation and Emergency Recovery Development EWS (Long terms recovery) Preparedness Based on Scientific Climate certainities sector-wiise PES (Prevention & Mitigation)
    • Linking & diff CCA and DRR Divergence Di Convergence C DRR CCA Relevant to all hazards Relevant to climate- related h l t d hazards d Origin and culture in Origin and culture in CCA specialists : being humanitarian assistance scientific theory involved from all sectors including DRR sector Most concerned with the Most concerned with Existing climate variability present risks the future is an entry point for CCA Traditional/indigenous …. may be insufficient Examples where knowledge at community level for resilience against integration of scientific is basis for resilience types and scales of knowledge and traditional risk yet to be y knowledge for DRR g experienced. provides learning opportunities Traditional focus on Traditional focus on Climatic disaster is the vulnerability reduction physical exposure product of climatic extremes/variability(physic al exposure) and vulnerability
    • Linking & diff CCA and DRR (based on Tearfund,2008) Divergence Convergence DRR CCA Practical application at local Theoretical application Climate change level at local level adaptation gaining experience through practical; local application Full range of established and g Limited range of tools g None, except increasing , p g developing tools1 under development recognition that more adaptation tools are needed Funding stream ad hoc and Funding streams DRR community engaging insufficient sizeable and climate change adaptation increasing i i funding f di mechanisms h i
    • Why are existing adopted measures unable  to withstand CDs?  ih d ? • the design is made without adequate consideration of climate change. The  measures are taken as mal‐adaptation in DRR measures are taken as mal adaptation in DRR • It is not considered future risk to CC . • the best practices of DRR are considered adaptive measures to reduce  p , p g y climatic impacts. However, due to rapid change in climatic variability and  its uncertainty, the natural and human systems are facing challenges to  adapt climatic disasters.  Hence, it requires re‐shaping, re‐designing of development practices  Hence it requires re shaping re designing of development practices including social and economic practices to respond effectively to newly  environmental changes especially climatic extremes.  • For this, HFA guideline and sustainable development strategy is to some  extent appropriate to address  CC by incorporating  scientific program for  i dd b i i i ifi f CC monitoring. 
    • DRR in CCRM Process DRR in CCRM Process • UNFCCC emphasizes capacities for coping with  U CCC e p as es capac t es o cop g t extreme weather events through Bali Action  Plan’s(BAP)‐CoP13 • CoP 13 highlights Risk Management and Risk  Reduction Strategies‐risk sharing and transfer  mechanism; h i • BAP focuses on DRR through vulnerability  assessments, capacity buildings, and response  assessments capacity buildings and response strategies and integration of actions into sectoral national planning; p g;
    • Contd… With consultation of ISDR system and UNFCCC  parties, UNISDR has identified the three areas of  action:  1. Develop national coordination mechanisms to  link DRR and Adaptation‐National Platform for  DRR and the national climate change team; 2. Conduct a baseline assessment on the status of  DRR and Adaptation efforts‐HFA implementation; 3. Prepare Adaptation Plans drawing on the Hyogo  Framework‐NAPA Documentation
    • Contd.. • DRR sector is one of the major thematic DRR sector is one of the major thematic  component in NAPA • Agriculture and Food Security Agriculture and Food Security • Forest and Bio‐diversity • Water and Energy Water and Energy • Climate Induced Disasters • P bli H lth Public Health; and d • Human Settlements and Infrastructures
    • Institutional tools for DRR and CCA) Silent Features of Proposed DM Act‐200(2063)  Silent Features of Proposed DM Act‐200(2063) •Provision for National Council for Disaster  Management(NCDM) to be chaired by HR Prime Minister P lt t N ti l Di t M t A th it •Proposal to set up National Disaster Management Authority  (NDMA) under the NCDM, to act as the focal point for disaster  management functions in Nepal from formulation of  appropriate strategies and plans to implementation and  appropriate strategies and plans to implementation and supervision of disaster management activities •Emphasizes on development of micro and macro hazard and  vulnerability maps for disaster prone areas to inform decision  vulnerability maps for disaster prone areas to inform decision makers to address disaster risk reduction effectively
    • (NSDRM‐2009) Guided by Priority Actions of HFA(2005‐2015) and is based on TDRM  ( ) approach; NSDRM have highlighted sectoral strategy(nine sectors):  Agriculture and food security ;  Agriculture and food security ; Health and Nutrition;  Education;  Shelter, infrastructures and physical planning;  , p y p g; Livelihoods and Protection; Water and Sanitation;   Forest and Soil Conservation;  Information,  Communication, Coordination and Management, and Logistic; Tracing, Rescue, Damage Assessment and Needs  Analysis
    • • Institutional Framework • National Council for Disaster Management (NCDM) • National Disaster Management Authority(NDMA) and  Committees as a Secreteriate of NCDM • Regional Disaster Management Committee; • Di t i t Di t M District Disaster Management Committee and Sub  tC itt dS b committees • Local Disaster Management Committee Local Disaster Management Committee • Community Based Organizations; • Disaster Management Authority at Local Level g y
    • Conclusions and Recommendation: Policy Options 1. Enhance Scientific certainities 1 Enhance Scientific certainities • Develop scientific programes for CC monitoring‐ well‐ equipped stations and longterm monitoring, networling  equipped stations and longterm monitoring networling and cooperation • Promote and apply regional climate model rather than Promote and apply regional climate model rather than  Global climate model‐inoder to identify hot spots of CC; 2. Promote Mitigation Measures g Land use management for carbon sinks and reduced  emissions Payment for ecosystem services(PES) p g Development of alternative technologies
    • 3. Adaptations measures DRR and EWS DRR and EWS Support and promote community‐led adaptations Pay more attention to sectors particularly water,  Pay more attention to sectors particularly water agriculture, health, HM  disaster risks into NAPA p Develeope IWRM 4. Public Awarness Information to local community; Enagement of the media and academia; A fruitful facilitation of international policy diologe  and cooperation