Issues and crisis management


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After a number of years, I thought it timely to update this lecture.

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Issues and crisis management

  1. 1. The Internet and Crisis Prof David Phillips FCIPR FSCR Last updated 29 October 2013 1 29/10/2013
  2. 2. Is the Internet Important to PR During Crisis?  Almost instant data spike  Very fast moving  Aggregates all other activities  Spreads every detail to all media and the population at large.  Fortunately verification is not always good enough in the first few minutes.  Unfortunately, verification tools are becoming very intelligent. 2 29/10/2013
  3. 3. Yes – it happens to the best of us “I’m told by a reputable person they have killed Osama Bin Laden.” Keith Urban at 03:24 – not The White House! In "Social Business Readiness: How Advanced Companies Prepare Internally," Altimeter Group analyzed 50 social media crises that have occurred since 2001. He was not the first reporter. Shortly after 4pm EST on 1 May Sohaib Athar (@ReallyVirtual on Twitter) was live-tweeting a series of helicopter flypasts and explosions and was unwittingly covering the US forces raid on Osama Bin Laden‟s compound. Meanwhile somewhere in the vicinity @m0hcin was reporting too. They found that those reaching mainstream media have risen steadily through the past decade, with just 1-2 incidents per year in the first five years and a total of 10 social media crises last year alone. The report also sheds light on exactly how social media crises arise and how companies can avoid them. Source: Mashable Source: leverwealth 3 29/10/2013
  4. 4. But – what is a crisis online   Variation All plans/activities have expected outcomes, financial budgets and timescales. These are often identified using aids for project planning. Monitoring such plans will identify where plans are going awry. This is normal day to day management. We all do it.  Foreseen uncertainties There are some variations that are identifiable and understood that the PR team cannot be sure will occur or when. They can be planned for and are part of management. Like coping with unexpected staff illness – managers cope.  Unforeseen Uncertainty This kind of event cannot be identified during project planning. Or during risk management planning. There is no Plan B. Good management has crisis management planning in place to mitigate effects (this is what today is about – good management.  4 It is a departure from a norm and can mostly be managed. Unknown unknowns Sometimes referred to as “unk-unks,” they make people nervous because existing decision tools are not available. It is possible to push unk unks further away with good crisis management tools in place. 29/10/2013
  5. 5. The processes 5 29/10/2013
  6. 6. The processes 6 29/10/2013
  7. 7. The processes 7 29/10/2013
  8. 8. The processes 8 29/10/2013
  9. 9. Have a planned methodology 9 29/10/2013
  10. 10. What does this entail  Know what is „normal‟  Have measures in place to be able to identify variation  Be sure that variation can be managed by a wide community.  Foreseen uncertainty circumstances are identified by looking at historic variation – are there generic foreseen circumstances (e.g. staff illness, transport strike etc) did we manage it well, how can we manage it better. Train people to recognise and manage  Unforeseen Uncertainty requires having crisis management tools in place (monitoring, evaluation, reporting and information dissemination, multi location/time zone responses etc.  Need for impact analysis 10 29/10/2013
  11. 11. What is normal 11 29/10/2013
  12. 12. Where do you find out? 12 29/10/2013
  13. 13. The building blocks  Every management reporting process is helpful.  Mostly management reports do not have much out of the ordinary (much as we would like to think otherwise)  We look for variance.  There are tools to help  Public Relations practitioners are allowed to use Big Data tools too! 13 29/10/2013
  14. 14. Watching the normal using LSI Treasury Committee Opening Statement Thursday 25 November 2010 Treasury Committee Opening Statement Wednesday 28 July 2010 Treasury Committee Opening Statement Tuesday 23 February 2010 Treasury Committee Opening Statement Tuesday 24 November 2009 Themes •considerable uncertainty •future path •controlling inflation •real exchange rate •temporary stimulus •unprecedented response •domestic consumption •net trade position •goods exports •major change Themes •central bank governors •bank balance sheets •place today •liquidity requirements •particularly grateful •collective view •current crisis •transition period •liquidity standards •gradual improvement Themes •unprecedented level •monetary stimulus •standard rate •low level •substantial boost •money spending •open letter •exchange rate depreciation •spare capacity •previous episodes Themes •petrol price inflation •spare capacity •spending relative •supply capacity •prospective reversal •short time horizon •significant margin •labour market •price level effects •much traction Topics Topics Topics Topics Banking Economics Investing Labor Real Estate 14 0.68 0.63 0.62 0.55 0.52 Banking Investing Economics Labor Real Estate Politics 0.84 0.60 0.59 0.55 0.47 0.00 Banking Investing Economics Real Estate Traditional Energy Politics 0.82 0.63 0.59 0.56 0.55 0.00 Banking Economics Labor Investing Traditional Energy Simple semantic analysis picks out themes, normality and variance. The very grist to the mill of rumour, conjecture and potential uncertainty. A good PR tool, for issues management. 0.67 0.62 0.61 0.59 0.46 29/10/2013
  15. 15. Network theory is important online  Who is linked to whom  What is linked to what and who and how  +davidghphillips #BoE, @RobElder etc  Who and what is changing  How fast  News Monitoring/tone is now automated  Its the news (an RSS feed on your phone)  Internet monitoring is a bit more difficult  Big Data monitoring is essential  But it is very creepy 15 29/10/2013
  16. 16. Influence networks real people in G+ 16 29/10/2013
  17. 17. Network theory  Every thing you do or say is discoverable  Your comments, friends, location etc  Your acquaintances and followers and their networks too  So too for organisations. 17 29/10/2013
  18. 18. What is changing and how to find out  From the perspective of population  From the perspective of the Governor  Lisbon Theory  Semantic analysis  Tag the concepts  To what extent     Is this item relevant Important Helpful Dangerous  To what extent are there new semantic concepts  Do they need to be managed 18 29/10/2013
  19. 19. Monitoring search profiles – the perspective of the population  What is a „normal‟ profile bank of england bank rate what is the current bank of england … bank of england current interest rate Jul 2013 bank of england base rates Jun 2013 interests rates uk May 2013 current bank of england interest rate Apr 2013 bank of england rate Mar 2013 boe interest rate bank of england interest rate… Feb 2013 interest rate bank of england Jan 2013 bank of england base rate Dec 2012 interest rates bank of england Nov 2012 bank of england interest rates Oct 2012 bank of england interest rate Sep 2012 interest rates 0 10000 20000 30000 • If it changes, its a crisis 19 Source: Google Analytics 29/10/2013
  20. 20. The LinkedIn network 20 29/10/2013
  21. 21. Facebook connections – it‟s who they know that counts 21 29/10/2013
  22. 22. Profile on Twitter 22 In 48 minutes 450 tweets collected, 157 of these tweets form connected components. From this, on the map we can see 3 large communities of Twitter users, joined by multiple smaller ones (Source: Keene Communications). 29/10/2013
  23. 23. Robert Peston‟s influence on the client in Twitter 23 Monitoring key influencers in different media is useful 29/10/2013
  24. 24. Figure 4. Words, phrases, and topics most distinguishing subjects aged 13 to 18, 19 to 22, 23 to 29, and 30 to 65 in Facebook Schwartz HA, Eichstaedt JC, Kern ML, Dziurzynski L, et al. (2013) Personality, Gender, and Age in the Language of Social Media: The Open-Vocabulary Approach. PLoS ONE 8(9): e73791. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0073791
  25. 25. YouTube influencer content 25 29/10/2013
  26. 26. Including Images Curalate •Ditto •gazeMetrix •LTU Technologies •TinEye 26 29/10/2013
  27. 27. How fast  Is important to know – and if it gets faster..... Google+ 27 Twitter LinkedIn 29/10/2013
  28. 28. How many media Blogs 28 Pinterest There are Limits 29/10/2013
  29. 29. Preparing for the day 1  Re-visit social media  Check all is up to date  Watch who else is contributing  Be ready to edit fast (e.g. Wikipedia) 29 29/10/2013
  30. 30. Preparing for the day 2  An escalation plan  Important to react  Important not to over react  Who  Nominated person  Trained person  Available information  Fast internal monitoring  Fast external monitoring  Establishment of the facts 30 29/10/2013
  31. 31. Testing the system  Narrowcast – broadcast  Is it „Robert Peston‟s‟ network or Robert Peston the person.  Is it a specific media (e.g. Twitter) or across social media – knowing that it will cross media borders fast  Robert is on Radio, TV, Blogs, Twitter etc etc.  Have the information about him to hand?  Once you use a media you have to keep doing it.  If you don‟t you don‟t have a voice/credibility  If you do, it has to be part of the overall strategic comms plan (content, monitoring, analysis ROI etc) 31 29/10/2013
  32. 32. Collateral/contributors/timing  Content  Essential facts  Supporting data (hyperlinks)  Images (get more attention)  Mix and match people  A method that allows you to say the same thing over and again without looking like stonewalling  First response quick  Then keep up a series of contributions (e.g. Every hour)  Never stretch the truth – a million experts online will put you right! 32 29/10/2013
  33. 33. What the experts say  Risk management       Identify risk events Assess the probability of each event Make a cost-benefit analysis of response alternatives Choose a response Re-assess probability and impact with company response On-going monitoring of risk events  “Crisis is a process of transformation where the old system can no longer be maintained.    1. unexpected (i.e., a surprise) 2. creates uncertainty 3. is seen as a threat to important goal system that can no longer be maintained." Most “research does not consider the enormous influence a crisis has on social media that further affects the relationship between social media and the stock market.”  There are measurable differences in the way microblog messages propagate. ...these differences relate to newsworthiness and credibility of the information conveyed, and (there are) features that are effective for classifying information automatically as credible or not credible.  33 Source: Venette, S. J. (2003). Risk communication in a High Reliability Organization: APHIS PPQ's inclusion of risk in decision making. Ann Arbor, MI: UMI Proquest Information and Learning. Source: Jiang, CuiQing, et al. "Analyzing market performance via social media: a case study of a banking industry crisis." Science China Information Sciences (2013): 1-18. Source: Carlos Castillo, Marcelo Mendoza, Barbara Poblete, (2013) "Predicting Information Credibility in Time-Sensitive Social Media", Internet Research, Vol. 23 Iss: 5 29/10/2013
  34. 34. Evidence of SocMed significance  Blogs and Social Media: “The New Word of Mouth and its Impact on the Reputation of Banks and on their Profitability”  ...Social media-based metrics (Web blogs and consumer ratings) are significant leading indicators of firm equity value.  Companies, brands, politicians, governmental institutions, and celebrities have increasingly been facing the impact of negative online WOM and complaint behaviour.  In reaction to any questionable statement or activity, social media users can create huge waves of outrage within just a few hours. Source: Eleftheria (Roila) Christakou, George-Michael Klimis Handbook of Social Media Management Media Business and Innovation 2013, pp 715-735 Source: Luo, Xueming, J. Zhang, and W. Duan (2013), “Social Media and Firm Equity Value,” Information Systems Research, Forthcoming Source: J. Pfeffera*, T. Zorbachb & K. M. Carleya (June 2013) Understanding online firestorms: Negative word-of-mouth dynamics in social media networks. Journal of Marketing Communications 34 29/10/2013
  35. 35. Social Media is part of Crisis management say the researchers  Social media such as Twitter and Facebook have become important tools for crisis communication.  These interactive venues require public relations practitioners to be risk managers, organisational strategists, crisis responders, and intelligence gatherers in addition to their role as advocates. Source: Theorizing Crisis Communication, First Edition. Edited by Timothy L. Sellnow and Matthew W. Seeger. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Source: Duhe, S & Wright D K. 2013 Public Relations and Communications Management: Current Trends and Emerging Topics. Routledge. 35 29/10/2013
  36. 36. But what about Print media?  There is little division between online PR and traditional press relations  European Public Relations Education and Research Association papers this year show that Media Relations is more productive when conducted using social media (except via Facebook).  Online Circulations are up a lot.  NRS PADD Survey reports the Guardian now has 1.7 million more monthly readers than the Telegraph, compared to May when this figure was 1.6 million.  Guardian is the most-read news site in the UK with 10.4 million readers, 523,000 more than the Mail Online (9.9 million).  Trade media as well as newspapers 36 29/10/2013
  37. 37. In Summary  You face issues  They will escalate to crisis  Not all crisis is the same  Possible to mitigate  Network theory semantic evaluation and related     37 data analysis are big allies Not possible to respond across all media A need to plan, prepare, train and test. Good research available to aid decision making Online and offline media are converging 29/10/2013
  38. 38. Questions  Questions  Contributions  A bit of brain storming 38 29/10/2013
  39. 39. Thank you David Phillips FCIPR FSCR 39 29/10/2013
  40. 40. More reading  Balmer, J.M.T., (2010) „The BP Deepwater Horizon debacle and corporate brand exuberance‟ in Journal of Brand Management, vol.18, Macmillan Publishers  Bergin, T. 2011. Spills and Spin: the Inside Story of BP. Random House.  Fearn-Banks, K. (2008) Crisis Communication Student Workbook. London: Routledge   Leighton, N. Shelton, T., 2008. Proactive Crisis Communication Planning. In P.F. Anthonissen, ed. 2008. Crisis Communications: practical PR strategies for reputation management and company survival. London: Kogan Page. Ch.2. Middlemass, N., 2011. How Can BP Regain Trust? CorpComms, 57, p.47. CURTIN, Tom, with Daniel Hayman and Naomi Husein, Managing a Crisis: A practical guide, Palgrave Macmillan, 2005  TENCH, Ralph & Liz Yeomans, Exploring Public Relations, Prentice Hall, 2006  Ajder, M., 2011. Three Minute Lesson: Rebuilding Trust and Revision Notes: Deepwater Horizon. CorpComms, 57, p.48.  Anthonissen, P.F. ed., 2008. Crisis Communications: practical PR strategies for reputation management and company survival. London: Kogan Page.  Barnett, M.L. and Hoffman, A.J., 2008. Beyond Corporate Reputation: Managing Reputational Interdependence. Corporate Reputation Review, 11, pp.1-9.  Bland, M., 1998. Communicating Out of a Crisis. London: Macmillan Business.  Borda, J. L. and Mackey-Kallis, S., 2004. A Model for Crisis Management. In: R. L. Heath and D. P. Millar, ed. 2004. A Rhetorical Approach to Crisis Communications: Management, Communication Processes, and Strategic Responses. Kindle ed. New Jersey: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. Ch.8.  Carroll, C., 2009. Defying a Reputational Crisis – Cadbury's Salmonella Scare: Why are Customers Willing to Forgive and Forget? Corporate Reputation Review, 12, pp.64-82.  Cave, A., 2011. BP: One Year On. CorpComms, 57, pp.37-41.  Johns, T., 2011. How Could BP Get It So Wrong? CorpComms, 57, p.46.  Langford, M., 2006. Crisis Public Relations Management. In: R. Tench and L. Yeomans, ed. 2006. Exploring Public Relations. Essex: Pearson Education Ltd. Ch.20.  Langford, M., 2005. Smelling of Roses or Drowning in Crude Oil? A Point of View on Managing Environmental Crises. Journal of Communication Management, 9(3), pp.365-374.  40  Pang, A. Crop, F. and Cameron, G.T., 2006. Corporate Crisis Planning: Tensions, Issues and Contradictions. Journal of Communication Management, 10(4), pp.371-389.  Phillips, D. & Young, P 2009 Online Public Relations Kogan Page  Seeger, M.W. Sellnow, T.L. and Ulmer, R.R., 2001. Public Relations and Crisis Communication: Organizing and Chaos. In: R.L. Heath, ed. 2001. Handbook of Public Relations. California: Sage Publications Inc. Ch.11.  Walker, K., 2010. A Systematic Review of the Corporate Reputation Literature: Definition, Measurement, and Theory. Corporate Reputation Review, 12, pp.357387.  Yu, T. and Lester, R.H., 2008. Moving Beyond Firm Boundaries: A Social Network Perspective on Reputation Spillover. Corporate Reputation Review, 11, pp.94–108.  Deloach, J. (2013) Managing Reputation Risk, accessed 27 January 2013  Honey, G. (2009) A Short Guide to Reputation Risk, Gower, UK, p. 26 tational_Risk.pdf  CIPR Crisis Diploma Reading List  Bland, M (1998) Communicating Out of a Crisis, London: Macmillan Wolstenholme, S [ed.] (2009) The PR Digest, Harlow: Pearson Education & The CIPR  Regester, M & Larkin, J. (2008), Risk Issues and Crisis Management, Kogan Page/CIPR, 4th ed  Seymour, M and Moore, S (2000) Effective Crisis Management: worldwide principles and practice. London: Cassell Barton, L., 2004. Crisis Management: Master the Skills to Prevent Disasters. Boston, MA: Harvard Business School Press.  Olaniran, B.A. and Williams, D.E., 2001. Anticipatory Model of Crisis Management: A Vigilant Response to Technological Crises. In: R.L. Heath, ed. 2001. Handbook of Public Relations. California: Sage Publications Inc. Ch.41. QUIRKE, Bill, Communicating Change, McGraw-Hill Book Company, 1995   BLAND, Michael, When it hits the Fan, Centre Publishing Ltd 2004  Milenkovic, G., 2001. Early Warning of Organizational Crises: A Research Project from the International Air Express Industry. Journal of Communication Management, 5(4), pp.360-373.    Lee, J. Woeste, J.H. and Heath, R.L., 2007. Getting Ready for Crises: Strategic Excellence. Public Relations Review, 33, pp.334-336. 29/10/2013