Probability - The Basics Workshop 1

Probability:
The Basics
Workshop 1

First Things First!
Write the short date in your mathematics book
Write the title – Probability Workshop 1 in your mathematics book
Underline both of these in red pen

What are we learning?
We are learning to. . .
Understand and use some of the basic language of probability
Create and undertake probability experiments
Display probability for events in an appropriate way
Compare expected and actual results from probability experiments and discuss the reasons for this

What are we going to do?
Walk through a probability experiment
Be introduced to the language of probability
Record probability
Conduct your own probability experiment

What is probability?
We use these words to explain how probable something is:
Likely Unlikely Impossible
Certain Even Chance
Probability is the study of how likely something is to happen.
We use probability in lots of different places.
If we were to place the words above on a the line below where would they go?
Work with a buddy to figure it out.
Share your answer with your group, explain why and where you put each word.

The Language
These words make up the probability scale.
The scale goes from impossible to certain.
Where on the probability scale would you put:
The chance that you are going to eat dirt for lunch?
Write your answer in your mathematics book before you go onto the next slide

Using The Language
The chance that you are going to eat dirt for lunch?
That’s right – you’re not going to eat dirt for lunch
Therefore it would go on the impossible end of the probability scale.
There is a 0% chance that you are going to do that.
Where on the probability scale would you put:
Getting a head when you flip a coin
Throwing a 2 when you roll a dice
School will end at 3pm today
You will write the correct answer in your mathematics book
Your teacher will use a blue whiteboard marker today
You will watch television this afternoon
You will travel back in time today

Using the Language
Here are the likely places you would put each scenario. However you might be able to argue a different location with your group. As long as you have a good reason you can put each scenario in any of the places on the line.

Checking Probability
We can test probability using a probability experiment.
We are going to use a bag of cubes to test probability today.
This is our bag.
Here is what is in our bag
1 Blue Cube
1 Green Cube

Working Out Probability
We want to know what the probability is that a green cube will be pulled out of the bag when the monster pulls a cube out.
There are two cubes in the bag.
We know that we can pull out a blue or a green cube.
There for there is an even chance (50%) that we will pull out a green cube.
Do you know what the probability will be for a blue cube?
See if you can work it out with your buddy.
Share your ideas with your group

Working Out Probability
We want to know what the probability is that a blue cube will be pulled out of the bag when the monster pulls a cube out.
That’s right there are two cubes in the bag.
We know that we can pull out a blue or a green cube.
There fore there is an even chance (50%) that we will pull out a blue cube.
How would we test that?
Do you think that there is going to be the same number of blue and green cubes pulled out of the bag when we do our experiment?

Testing Probability
Lets experiment. We are going to pull out a cube from the bag, record what colour it is then put it back into the bag. Then we’ll do it again. We’re going to have 10 tries at it.

Testing Probability
Now we’ve completed our experiment we can have a look at the results. Work with a buddy to answer the questions in your mathematics book.
How many blue blocks did we pull out?
How many green blocks did we pull out?
What was the probability that we would pull out a blue block?
What was the probability that we would pull out a green block?
Did our probability match with our experiment results?

Testing Probability
Here are the answers to the questions…
4
6
Even Chance or 50%
Even Chance or 50%
No we pulled out 40% Blue and 60% green instead of 50% of each.

Testing Probability
So our probability didn’t match our test results.
Why do you think that happened? Try and explain it with a buddy. Share your answers with your mathematics group before going to the next slide.

Testing Probability
Remember probability is the study of how likely something is to happen.
We can predict what could happen and what is more or less likely to happen but in reality any of the events could happen unless they are impossible.
Are you ready to try your own experiment?

Your Own Experiment
Lets have some fun with coins.
Get a coin from your teacher or use a counter with a different symbol on each side.
Answer these questions
with a buddy first:
What is the probability of getting a head when you flip a coin?
What is the probability of getting a tale when you flip a coin?
Okay now lets test it out
Draw the table into your mathematics book
Have 30 tries at flipping a coin record the result of each flip

Your Own Experiment
Now that you’ve done your experiment…
Compare the results from everyone in the group.
Where your results all the
same?
Why? Why not?
That’s right, we can use probability to predict what could happen but in reality the events we’re studying could all happen unless they are impossible.

Evaluation
We need to look at what you’ve learnt and what you managed to complete.
Answer the questions on the following slides with a buddy.

How is your learning going?
Are you able to do these things?
Understand and use some of the basic language of probability
Create and undertake probability experiments
Display probability for events in an appropriate way
Compare expected and actual results from probability experiments and discuss the reasons for this

How did you go?
Did you complete all of these things?
Walk through a probability experiment
Be introduced to the language of probability
Record probability
Conduct your own probability experiment

Congratulations
You’ve learnt about the basic probability language and process
Just a little more practice and you’ll be ready to predict anything!

Probability - The Basics Workshop 1

by Angela Lee on Jul 07, 2009

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