Q3 2011 global online survey client report


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Q3 2011 global online survey client report

  1. 1. 3rd Quarter, 2010Global ConsumerConfidence, Concernsand SpendingA Global NielsenConsumer ReportOctober 2010
  2. 2. Hope for a full global economic recovery in 2010diminishes as cash-strapped consumers are on the rise • Consumer confidence declined in 19 of 53 global markets • One in four North Americans and one in five Europeans have no discretionary income. • Rising food prices top concerns for one in four Asians • Increasing utility prices are biggest concern for Europeans • Recovery is back on track in North Western Europe, while the recessionary mindset lives on in Southern Europe • Nine of the top 10 most confident nations hail from Asia PacificAfter an upbeat start to the year with two consecutive quarters While positive sentiment drove confidence levels up in theof increases in optimism, global consumer confidence fell three first half of this year, consumer confidence declined in 19 of 53points in September to an Index of 90 as consumers’ hopes for global markets in the third quarter. There simply hasn’t beena full economic recovery this year fades in most parts of the enough consistent and positive news to sustain the positiveworld, according to the latest edition of the Nielsen Global outlook and momentum that consumers showed at the startConsumer Confidence Index. Consumer Confidence Index levels of this year. The reversal of global consumer confidence in theabove and below a baseline of 100 indicate degrees of optimism third quarter highlights the fragility and uncertainty of theand pessimism. The 90 Index mark reflects the reality that current global economy, and above all, the divergence in paceconsumers around the world remain largely pessimistic about of recovery among international markets and regions.job prospects, personal finances and their ability to buy thethings they want and need over the next year. 3rd Quarter 2010 Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Index 160 9 23 9 0 36 7 17 6 -3 -5 7 10 16 -1 7 -9 15 7 -1 11 27 5 10 9 13 5 0 17 -21 10 1 -3 4 4 -3 -9 8 0 6 4 2 0 -13 -14 9 13 6 n/a -15 -10 -4 3 9 ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▼ ▼ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▼ ▲ ▼ ▲ ▲ ▼ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▼ ▲ ▲ ▼ ▲ ▲ ▼ ▼ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▼ ▼ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▲ ▼ 140 129 Changes Q3’10 vs Q3’09 117 115 113 120 115 115 114 104 103 102 106 103 103 101 101 101 100 99 99 98 98 96 94 100 93 92 90 89 88 8887 87 Global Average: 90 81 81 77 77 76 76 75 80 75 70 68 67 65 64 UNITED ARAB EMIRATES 63 62 59 58 60 57 55 54 UNITED KINGDOM 52 CZECH REPUBLIC UNITED STATES NEW ZEALAND SOUTH AFRICA SOUTH KOREA NETHERLANDS 44 SWITZERLAND SAUDI ARABIA HONG KONG 40 PHILIPPINES SINGAPORE ARGENTINA INDONESIA COLOMBIA PORTUGAL AUSTRALIA LITHUANIA DENMARK MALAYSIA GERMANY HUNGARY THAILAND PAKISTAN ROMANIA NORWAY VIETNAM SWEDEN CANADA BELGIUM FINLAND UKRAINE ESTONIA POLAND IRELAND AUSTRIA TAIWAN MEXICO FRANCE GREECE TURKEY CROTIA RUSSIA LATVIA BRAZIL ISRAEL EGYPT J APAN CHINA SPAIN INDIA ITALY 20 0 Source: The Nielsen Company, Global Online Survey, Q3 2010
  3. 3. For many consumers, spending on non-essential goods has more than 26,000 Internet users in 53 countries. In the latestbecome more restrained this year compared to the height round of the survey conducted between September 3 andof the global recession two years ago. Discretionary income September 21, 2010, consumer confidence in most marketsreached an all time low for many consumers in the third showed continued spending restraint. More than half (56%) ofquarter, with 27 percent of Americans, 19 percent of Europeans, global consumers believe they are currently in recession and17 percent of Middle Easterners/Africans and 16 percent of Latin 48 percent do not believe they will be out of a recession in theAmericans left with no spare cash after paying essential next 12 months. While slipping back into a full blown globalliving expenses. recession is unlikely, in the last few months consumers accepted that there are no quick fixes to the persistent economic issuesNielsen’s Global Consumer Confidence Index tracks consumer of unemployment and spiraling budget deficits that continue toconfidence, major concerns and spending intentions among dampen and constrain economic revival. How to utilize spare cash after covering essential living expenses Global Average 47 49 Putting into savings 49 49 31 New clothes 34 34 34 33 Holidays / vacations 37 33 37 27 32 Out of home entertainment 33 32 30 Paying off debts / credit cards / loans 30 29 24 29 % New technology products 28 2626 26 Home improvements / decorating 26 26 21 Q3 2009 20 23 Investing in shares of stock / mutual funds Q1 2010 24 21 Q2 2010 13 I have no spare cash 12 11 Q3 2010 14 10 Retirement fund 11 10 11 2 Don’t know/undecided 2 2 3 Source: The Nielsen Company, Global Online Survey, Q3 2010 Do you think your country will be out of an economic recession in the next 12 months? Yes No Don’t Know 31 32 33 29 30 30 % 42 45 43 51 48 54 27 23 23 21 17 19 Asia Pacific Middle East, Latin America North America Europe Global Average Africa, Pakistan Source: The Nielsen Company, Global Online Survey, Q3 20103
  4. 4. Rising Concerns The economy remains the number one concern for more than one in four North American’s (27%) and worries about healthIn addition to economic issues, many consumers in Asia and jumped five percentage points as the number one concernEurope are grappling with additional concerns such as rising among 10 percent of respondents in this region. Among Latinfood and utility prices, which are squeezing already constrained American consumers, consumers ranked work/life balance, jobfamily budgets. In Europe, increasing utility bills replaced the security, debt, crime and children’s education ahead of theeconomy as the number one concern over the next six months economy as the number one concern.and in Asia Pacific, one in five consumers are most concernedabout rising food prices—an increase of 13 points compared tothe second quarter. In Europe, increasing utility bills replace the economy as the biggest concern in the next 6 months Increasing utility bills (electricity, gas, heating, etc) 11 12 +2 Biggest Concern Change vs. Q2 The economy 10 10 -6 Health 9 10 Job security 9 8 Increasing food prices 7 10 Childrens education and/or welfare 8 7 Debt 9 6 Work/life balance 7 6 Political stability 4 4 Increasing fuel prices 3 4 Crime 3 4 % Parents welfare and happiness 34 Terrorism 33 Global warming 2 2 Immigration 22 War 1 1 Tolerance towards different religions 1 1 Biggest concern Lack of understanding of other cultures 1 1 Second biggest concern Tolerance towards other countries’ values 11 Other concern 33 No concerns 4 1 Source: The Nielsen Company, Global Online Survey, Q3 2010 “Rising food and utility prices are squeezing already constrained family budgets.” 4
  5. 5. In Asia Pacific, increasing food prices jumped 13 points, replacing the economy as the biggest concern in the next 6 months +13 Biggest Concern Change vs. Q2 Increasing food prices 21 12 Work/life balance 13 12 The economy 10 12 -9 Health 8 9 Job security 9 8 Increasing utility bills (electricity, gas, heating, etc) 6 9 Parents welfare and happiness 4 8 Childrens education and/or welfare 5 6 Global warming 5 5 Increasing fuel prices 3 4 Debt 33 % Political stability 2 3 Terrorism 1 2 Crime 1 2 War 1 1 Tolerance towards different religions 1 1 Tolerance towards other countries’ values 1 Biggest concern Lack of understanding of other cultures 1 Second biggest concern Immigration Other concern 22 No concerns 41 Source: The Nielsen Company, Global Online Survey, Q3 2010 In North America, the economy remains the biggest concern over the next 6 months The economy 27 15 Debt 13 9 Job security 9 8 Increasing utility bills (electricity, gas, heating, etc) 8 9 Health 10 7 Increasing food prices 4 10 Work/life balance 5 6 Terrorism 3 5 Increasing fuel prices 2 5 Childrens education and/or welfare 3 3 Immigration 2 3 % Parents welfare and happiness 2 3 Global warming 1 3 Political stability 22 Crime 12 War 2 Tolerance towards different religions 11 Biggest concern Lack of understanding of other cultures 11 Second biggest concern Tolerance towards other countries’ values 1 Other concern 5 3 No concerns 4 2 Source: The Nielsen Company, Global Online Survey, Q3 20105
  6. 6. North American Consumers Adjust Expectations latest 52-week period. The U.S. economy is driving consumers to make trade-offs and buy less—and food matters most.Stagnant unemployment figures in the United States and Non-edible departments are leading the decline in unit sales,increasing jobless numbers had a major effect on confidence while unit sales for all edible departments are growing over thelevels in the third quarter. Sixty-four percent of North latest year. Not all non-edible categories are declining andAmericans describe their job prospects in the next 12 months as edible private brands no longer dominate the list of categoriesnot so good or bad. driving the fastest growth in private brand unit sales. The U.S.In the U.S., the Consumer Confidence Index of 81 in the third has seen great innovation from manufacturers and retailersquarter is below the average level of 83 achieved over the past taking advantage of a weak away-from-home consumptiontwo and a half years – and considerably less than the 104 Index sector and it remains a long-term opportunity for the industry.average achieved between 2005 and 2007. The latest consumer Consumers continue to seek out value, but innovation is still aconfidence results confirm that U.S. consumers are clearly huge driver for brands and retailers.restrained by a lack of confidence. With a stubbornly weak In Canada, despite the increase in consumer confidence overlabor market, consumers are concerned about the jobless the past year, Canadians remain cautious when it comes torecovery and managing their personal finances. As a result, opening their wallets. Consumers are still focused on value,consumers are closely planning spending and they continue to continuing to shop at discount retailers and buying onreduce shopping trips while placing more emphasis on value. promotion at record levels. After a year of rising prices, we areFewer shopping trips are making every retail interaction critical now seeing a leveling of consumer-packaged goods (CPG)for retailers. inflation as retailers continue to use price and promotions toU.S. consumers are still very much in a holding pattern. The win over the consumer. As a result, expect lower levels of retaillatest annual dollar sales trend across key retail departments sales for 2010, forecasting a potential 0.5-1.0% decline in CPGshows no improvement in the most recent quarter within the dollar sales, with unit sales expecting to hold. Perceptions of Good/Bad time for people to buy the things they want and need over the NEXT 12 Months Excellent Good Not so good Bad 13 21 21 40 41 41 42 26 28 2 4 4 Canada United States North America Average Source: The Nielsen Company, Global Online Survey, Q3 2010 6
  7. 7. Divergent Recovery in Europe like the rest of the economy remained flat in the third quarter. There’s hardly any growth coming from any sector of theEurope demonstrated the most divergent recovery patterns in economy and Italians have resigned themselves to the realitythe last quarter. Economic recovery was back on track in North that recovery, when it comes, will be a very slow ride.Western Europe, while in Southern Europe, the recessionarymindset lives on. Recession-battered markets of Greece, Italy, In Spain, the high unemployment rate of 20% is leading to aSpain and Portugal have continued to decline. Hopes of significant slow down for both consumer confidence andrecovery are becoming increasingly dim as consumers brace consumption. Fast-moving consumer goods prices have not yetthemselves for a new era of austerity measures. reached the level achieved in 2008, which is contributing to the slow consumption recovery. In the search for the best shoppingItaly plummeted to an all time low Index of 64 in the third options and value, consumers have increased the number ofquarter. Weak consumer spending, the highest unemployment visits to food stores this year and private label purchasing, whilefigures since 2003, a slowdown in exports, political uncertainty slower than previous years, continues to grow reaching up to aand continued tight credit conditions have plunged consumer 33 percent share.confidence to a new low. Fast-moving consumer goods sales, Recessionary mindset lives on in Southern Europe Consumer Confidence Index Q3 2009 79 78 74 75 Q1 2010 72 Q3 2010 65 64 57 57 53 51 44 Spain Italy Greece Portugal Source: The Nielsen Company, Global Online Survey, Q3 20107
  8. 8. North Western Europe Making Upward Climb Additionally, the government’s announced 2011 financial plan includes an increase in taxes and a drop in fiscal advantages.In contrast, countries in North Western Europe are delivering This perspective of tighter fiscal policy should reinforce thethe strongest and steadiest return to economic growth in the lack of confidence amongst French households. Purchases,region. Consumer confidence in Germany hit its highest level however, are on a positive trend—though moderately—withsince Q3 2005, Austria’s consumer confidence rebounded to a loss of buyers for the discount channel on one hand and thethe same level in Q3 2006 and Belgium continued its upward dynamism of increased promotions on premium brands on theclimb started in Q3 2009. While France and Estonia’s Index other one. Overall, private label remains an attractive optionlevels are still well below average, both have reported a slow for consumers and strongly pushed by retailers. If uncertaintyupward climb since the end of 2009. continues in the next few months, expect to see a greater push for private label and a renewal for the discount channel.In France, the social climate was quite tense in Septemberwith two national strikes linked with the pension system. North Western Europe is slowly climbing upward Consumer Confidence Index Q3 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 92 94 87 85 87 84 84 85 77 81 79 68 74 67 63 67 66 70 62 61 France Estonia Germany Belgium Austria Source: The Nielsen Company, Global Online Survey, Q3 2010Asia Pacific is Resilient and Optimistic the economy is heading in a healthy direction. With the newly launched housing policies to cool down the real estate marketRegionally, Asia Pacific was the world’s most confident region and the discussion of the new policies to accelerate incomereporting an Index of 98, followed closely by Middle East/ and urbanization, consumers are in the “watch” mood for bigAfrica at 97 points. Nine of the top 10 most confident nations item purchases. While the government is taking effective stepshailed from Asia Pacific countries: India, Thailand, Australia, to ensure domestic demand weighs more heavily in the GDPIndonesia, Philippines, Singapore, China, Malaysia and Hong balance, the rise of China’s Middle Class and the potential ofKong. the lower tier cities in China deserve more attention for those who want to win in China.The latest quarter’s Chinese consumer confidence experienceda “soft landing”, which is expected as the China government Thailand posted the biggest quarterly confidence jump to anhas largely engineered a controlled deceleration of growth Index of 117 in the third quarter. Thailand’s significant reboundand prices without having the bottom fall out to make sure is testament to the country’s resilience to return to normalcy 8
  9. 9. after the political unrest that mired the nation in the second political unrest. Economic and business confidence increasedquarter. A separate Nielsen online study conducted in June as soon as the immediate political situation was brought underindicated that 70 percent of Thais expected life to return to control. Strengthening of the Thai Baht and significant gains innormal immediately or within one month following the May the Thailand Stock Exchange has also helped to 129 boost optimism. 117 11 Nine of the top 10 most optimistic countries come from Asia Pacific 129 Q3 2010 117 115 115 115 114 113 % 106 104 103 103 % e k a si a ng nd lia ia ia es ia or in ar ab es d in Ko ra a ay Ch ap nm In ail pp on Ar st al ng g Th Au De ili d M on i ud In Si Ph H Sa Source: The Nielsen Company, Global Online Survey, Q3 2010 Once essential living expenses are paid, saving is a high priority for consumers in Asia Pacific 60 Putting into savings 59 62 63 41 Holidays / vacations 47 45 41 36 41 New clothes 40 40 29 38 Out of home entertainment 38 39 36 Investing in shares of stock / mutual funds 40 41 37 31 New technology products 37 33 34 27 Paying off debts / credit cards / loans 26 27 27 Home improvements / decorating 25 27 % 25 21 11 Retirement fund 10 10 14 Q3 2009 5 I have no spare cash 5 Q1 2010 5 5 Q2 2010 2 Don’t know/undecided 2 Q3 2010 1 2 Source: The Nielsen Company, Global Online Survey, Q3 20109
  10. 10. Middle East/Africa/Pakistan is Stable and Consistent Saudi consumers, on the other hand, are characterized by solid optimism, which sets them apart from their counterparts inIn the Middle East, Africa and Pakistan, consumer confidence the rest of the world. Saudi consumers’ bullish sentimentsis stable, consistently reporting steady Index levels at or above are resulting in more spending and less saving. There is 8the global average. Consumers in this region are cautiously percent growth in non-food categories and 4 percent growthoptimistic and as such show little variations in spending in food categories compared to last year. Given its youngintentions and concerns compared to the previous quarter. population (66% under 29 years) and the high discretionary income of families, Saudi Arabian consumers are consideredIn the Untied Arab Emirates, consumer spending on fast- early adopters and they are receptive to new products, brandsmoving consumer goods grew a healthy 9 percent versus year and stores. However, when it comes to households’ groceryago—a good indicator of consumers’ stabilizing confidence. shopping, Saudis are informed and selective—their sensitivityThere has been a light increase in recreation and cultural and receptiveness to promotions is amongst the highest inactivity during this quarter, driven in part by Ramadan,suggesting a timid rise in out-of-home entertainment countries where Nielsen conducts its Global Shopperspending. On the whole, consumers are still very cautious with Trends Study.discretionary spending and have a greater propensity to savecompared to pre-crisis years. Consumer confidence levels in the Middle East, Africa and Pakistan are stable and consistent Q3 2010 115 Q1 2010 108 103 101 98 95 92 92 90 89 87 84 Saudi United Arab Egypt Pakistan South Global Arabia Emirates Africa Average Source: The Nielsen Company, Global Online Survey, Q3 2010 10
  11. 11. Latin America is Returning to Normal In Mexico, recovery continues on the path to growth, with volume and value trends moving forward, 3.1 percent and 5.9Consumer confidence in Latin America continues to report percent, respectively during the rolling year ended in July 2010steady levels, which are normalizing after hitting a low point at compared to the previous year. On the other hand, variablethe beginning of 2009. price continues its downward trend, which is being absorbed by manufacturers and retailers in their efforts to boostBrazilian consumers continued to advance fast-moving consumption. This aggressive price dynamic is triggering growthconsumer goods market growth, rising to 6 percent during in the basket volume.the first half of 2010. Positive economic conditions togetherwith new product introductions that focused on value andimproved price fueled the sustained growth, which is expectedto continue throughout the rest of the year. When economic conditions do improve, which of these do you expect you will continue to do? Latin America Average Try to save on gas and electricity 44 Cut down on telephone expenses 34 Switch to cheaper grocery brands 27 Cut down on take-away meals 23 Spend less on new clothes 21 Look for better deals on home loans, insurance, credit 18 cards etc Use my car less often 14 Cut down on out-of-home entertainment 13 % Delay upgrading technology, eg. PC, Mobile etc 11 Cut down on or buy cheaper brands of alcohol 9 Other actions not listed above 9 Cut down on smoking 8 Cut down on holidays/short breaks 8 Delay the replacement of major household items 7 Cut down on at-home entertainment 4 Cut out annual holiday 4 Source: The Nielsen Company, Global Online Survey, Q3 2010 “Consumer confidence in Latin America continues to report steady levels.”11
  12. 12. Country AbbreviationsArgentina AR Italy IT Thailand THAustralia AU Japan JP Turkey TRAustria AT Latvia LV United Arab Emirates AEBelgium BE Lithuania LT United Kingdom GBBrazil BR Malaysia MY Ukraine UACanada CA Mexico MX United States USChina CN Netherlands NL Vietnam VNColombia CO New Zealand NZCroatia HR Norway NOCzech Republic CZ Pakistan PKDenmark DK Philippines PH Region AbbreviationsEgypt EG Poland PLEstonia EE Portugal PT AP Asia PacificFinland FI Romania RO EU EuropeFrance FR Russia RU LA Latin AmericaGermany DE Saudi Arabia SA MEAP Middle East, Africa, PakistanGreece GR Singapore SG NA North AmericaHong Kong HK South Africa ZAHungary HU South Korea KOIndia IN Spain ESIndonesia ID Sweden SEIreland IE Switzerland CHIsrael IL Taiwan TWAbout the Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence SurveyThe Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Survey was conducted between September 3 and September 21, 2010 and polled over26,000 consumers in 53 countries throughout Asia Pacific, Europe, Latin America, the Middle East and North America about theirconfidence levels and economic outlook. The Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index is developed based on consumers’ confidencein the job market, status of their personal finances and readiness to spend. The sample has quotas based on age and sex for eachcountry based on their Internet users, and is weighted to be representative of Internet consumers and has a maximum margin oferror of ±0.6%.About The Nielsen CompanyThe Nielsen Company is a global information and measurement company with leading market positions in marketing andconsumer information, television and other media measurement, online intelligence, mobile measurement, trade shows andrelated assets. The privately held company has a presence in approximately 100 countries, with headquarters in New York, USA.For more information, please visit, www.nielsen.com. Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. All rights reserved. Produced in the U.S.A. Nielsen and the Nielsen logo are trademarks or registered trademarks of CZT/ACN Trademarks, L.L.C. 10/2205 12