Identifying emerging risks
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Identifying emerging risks

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Identifying emerging risks Identifying emerging risks Presentation Transcript

  • Identifying Emerging Risks 
 in the Food Chain iFood 2013 9 October 2013, Don Willems, Jan Top don.willems@wur.nl
  • Objective To become aware of potential risks before they affect human health COMMIT/ EFoodLab
  • Identifying Food Safety Risks Reactive Systems RASFF - Rapid Alert System for Food and Feed Exchange of information between nations (e.g. GIEWS)) Searching for/Monitoring of information (e.g. EMM) Proactive Systems Horizon Scanning, foresight, risk profiling, ... Holistic systems ERDSS (Emerging Risk Detection Support System) COMMIT/ EFoodLab
  • Holistic Systems Technology Human Behaviour Science Economy Politics Nature Environment Legislation COMMIT/ EFoodLab
  • Holistic Systems • • Conclusions from case studies • In every case study influential sectors were identified. Most frequent influential sectors were: • • • • Science and technology Human behaviour Nature and environment Legislation & economy Many indicators (and related data sources) were identified, generic and case-specific COMMIT/ EFoodLab
  • Holistic Systems • Detection needs: • Monitoring of news/science/... / other sources Information Retrieval • • Text Mining - Information Extraction • • Inferring possible risks - Reasoning • Data extraction (databases/spreadsheets) Information Extraction Reporting Evaluation (by experts) COMMIT/ EFoodLab
  • Technology - Ontologies • Represents knowledge as • • • Graph Concepts - nodes • • Classes Instances (of classes) Relations - edges COMMIT/ EFoodLab
  • Technology - Ontologies Enterobacteriaceae subclass of Escherichia subclass of E_Coli subclass of Klebsiella subclass of Klebsiella_pneumoniae COMMIT/ EFoodLab
  • Technology - Ontologies E_Coli is a is a The_E_Coli_bacterium_ in_cow_XXX The_E_Coli_bacterium_in_ the_Lettuce_in_my_taco COMMIT/ EFoodLab
  • Technology - Ontologies "E. coli" "Pałeczka okr label label nicy" label E_Coli label "Escherichia coli" "大腸桿菌" COMMIT/ EFoodLab
  • Technology - Ontologies Warm_blooded_ organisms E_Coli depiction of may be found in subclass of Pathogenic_E_Coli may be caused by may be caused by Gastrointestinal_infection Neonatal_meningitis COMMIT/ EFoodLab
  • Technology - Ontologies Enterobacteriaceae Escherichia Warm_blooded_ organisms E_Coli Klebsiella Klebsiella_pneum Pathogenic_E_Coli Neonatal_meningitis Gastrointestinal_infection COMMIT/ EFoodLab
  • Technology - Information Retrieval Fruit subclass of Pomme_Fruit cultivar of Cox_Orange cultivar of Elstar Previous studies have shown that commonly used apple cultivars like Granny Smith, Golden Delicious and Cox Orange are highly allergenic, containing high levels of Mal d 1, whereas some local cultivars like Gloster, Jamba and Belle de Boskoop appear to be low-allergenic. Professor Nybom claims that the allergen-free apple, which so far has no name, tastes better and is more beautiful than the apple Gloster, which so far is the only apple variety that can be offered to people with allergies. subclass of Apple cultivar of Golden Delicious Apple is looking to use a plastic flexible OLED screen for its upcoming iWatch, which can be bent. The iPhone maker is testing OLED screens in 1.3in, 1.4in and 1.5in screen sizes for the forthcoming gadget, Korean publication ChosunIlbo reported. Reports also reveal that Apple has developed a prototype of the iWatch with a 1.5in screen and it is likely that the iPhone maker may source the flexible OLED screens from Korean firms including LG and Samsung. COMMIT/ EFoodLab
  • Technology - Information Retrieval Fruit subclass of Pomme_Fruit cultivar of Cox_Orange cultivar of Elstar subclass of Previous studies have shown that commonly used apple cultivars like Granny Smith, Golden Delicious and Cox Orange are highly allergenic, containing high levels of Mal d 1, whereas some local cultivars like Gloster, Jamba and Belle de Boskoop appear to be low-allergenic. Professor Nybom claims that the allergen-free apple, which so far has no name, tastes better and is more beautiful than the apple Gloster, which so far is the only apple variety that can be offered to people with allergies. ✓ Apple cultivar of Golden Delicious Apple is looking to use a plastic flexible OLED screen for its upcoming iWatch, which can be bent. The iPhone maker is testing OLED screens in 1.3in, 1.4in and 1.5in screen sizes for the forthcoming gadget, Korean publication ChosunIlbo reported. Reports also reveal that Apple has developed a prototype of the iWatch with a 1.5in screen and it is likely that the iPhone maker may source the flexible OLED screens from Korean firms including LG and Samsung. COMMIT/ EFoodLab
  • Technology - Information Retrieval Fruit subclass of Pomme_Fruit cultivar of Cox_Orange cultivar of Elstar subclass of Apple cultivar of Golden Delicious Previous studies have shown that commonly used apple cultivars like Granny Smith, Golden Delicious and Cox Orange are highly allergenic, containing high levels of Mal d 1, whereas some local cultivars like Gloster, Jamba and Belle de Boskoop appear to be low-allergenic. Professor Nybom claims that the allergen-free apple, which so far has no name, tastes better and is more beautiful than the apple Gloster, which so far is the only apple variety that can be offered to people with allergies. ✓ ⨯ Apple is looking to use a plastic flexible OLED screen for its upcoming iWatch, which can be bent. The iPhone maker is testing OLED screens in 1.3in, 1.4in and 1.5in screen sizes for the forthcoming gadget, Korean publication ChosunIlbo reported. Reports also reveal that Apple has developed a prototype of the iWatch with a 1.5in screen and it is likely that the iPhone maker may source the flexible OLED screens from Korean firms including LG and Samsung. COMMIT/ EFoodLab
  • Technology - Information Extraction Fruit subclass of Pomme_Fruit cultivar of Cox_Orange cultivar of Elstar Previous studies have shown that commonly used apple cultivars like Granny Smith, Golden Delicious and Cox Orange are highly allergenic, containing high levels of Mal d 1, whereas some local cultivars like Gloster, Jamba and Belle de Boskoop appear to be low-allergenic. Professor Nybom claims that the allergen-free apple, which so far has no name, tastes better and is more beautiful than the apple Gloster, which so far is the only apple variety that can be offered to people with allergies. subclass of Apple cultivar of Golden Delicious COMMIT/ EFoodLab
  • Technology - Information Extraction Previous studies have shown that commonly used apple cultivars like Granny Smith, Golden Delicious and Cox Orange are highly allergenic, containing high levels of Mal d 1, whereas some local cultivars like Gloster, Jamba and Belle de Boskoop appear to be low-allergenic. Professor Nybom claims that the allergen-free apple, which so far has no name, tastes better and is more beautiful than the apple Gloster, which so far is the only apple variety that can be offered to people with allergies. Fruit subclass of Pomme_Fruit cultivar of Cox_Orange cultivar of subclass of Apple Granny_Smith cultivar of Granny_Smith has allergenicity High_Allergenicity Golden_Delicious has allergenicity High_Allergenicity Cox_Orange has allergenicity High_Allergenicity cultivar of Apple EXTRACTED FACTS Elstar Golden_Delicious COMMIT/ EFoodLab
  • Technology - Information Extraction Previous studies have shown that commonly used apple cultivars like Granny Smith, Golden Delicious and Cox Orange are highly allergenic, containing high levels of Mal d 1, whereas some local cultivars like Gloster, Jamba and Belle de Boskoop appear to be low-allergenic. Professor Nybom claims that the allergen-free apple, which so far has no name, tastes better and is more beautiful than the apple Gloster, which so far is the only apple variety that can be offered to people with allergies. Fruit subclass of Pomme_Fruit cultivar of Cox_Orange subclass of cultivar of Apple cultivar of Elstar Granny_Smith Granny_Smith has allergenicity High_Allergenicity Golden_Delicious has allergenicity High_Allergenicity Cox_Orange has allergenicity High_Allergenicity cultivar of Golden_Delicious COMMIT/ EFoodLab
  • Technology - Information Extraction Previous studies have shown that commonly used apple cultivars like Granny Smith, Golden Delicious and Cox Orange are highly allergenic, containing high levels of Mal d 1, whereas some local cultivars like Gloster, Jamba and Belle de Boskoop appear to be low-allergenic. Professor Nybom claims that the allergen-free apple, which so far has no name, tastes better and is more beautiful than the apple Gloster, which so far is the only apple variety that can be offered to people with allergies. Fruit subclass of Pomme_Fruit cultivar of Cox_Orange subclass of Granny_Smith cultivar of Apple cultivar of has allergenicity High_Allergenicity cultivar of has allergenicity Elstar subclass of Allergenicity Golden_Delicious COMMIT/ EFoodLab
  • Technology - Information Extraction Fruit subclass of Pomme_Fruit subclass of cultivar of Cox_Orange cultivar of Apple cultivar of cultivar of Previous studies have shown that commonly used apple cultivars like Granny Smith, Golden Delicious and Cox Orange are highly allergenic, containing high levels of Mal d 1, whereas some Granny_Smith like Gloster, Jamba and Belle de local cultivars Boskoop appear to be low-allergenic. Professor has allergenicity that the allergen-free apple, Nybom claims which so far has no name, tastes better and is High_Allergenicity more beautiful than the apple Gloster, which so far is the only apple variety that can be offered to subclass of people with allergies. has allergenicity cultivar of Gloster Elstar Allergenicity subclass of has allergenicity Jamba has allergenicity Low_Allergenicity Belle_de_Boskoop COMMIT/ EFoodLab
  • Technology - Reasoning • Automatic reasoning is used to infer new facts • Rule-based reasoning • • IF condition_A OR/AND condition_B THEN consequent ELSE alternative May lead to Chain reaction of rules firing COMMIT/ EFoodLab
  • Technology - Reasoning • Example • • • Source: FAO/Eurostat • Result: Increased disease pressure in cattle in country X • IF increased_disease_pressure_in_country_X THEN increased_use_of_antibiotics_in_country_X • Result: Increased use of antibiotics in country X Indicator: Increased production of meat in country X IF increased_production_of_meat_in_country_X THEN increased_disease_pressure_in_countryX COMMIT/ EFoodLab
  • Technology - Reasoning • • Example • • Result: Increased use of antibiotics in country X IF increased_use_of_antibiotics_in_country_X THEN food_safety_risk_for_meat_from_country_X Result: Food safety risk for meat from country X COMMIT/ EFoodLab
  • Technology - Reasoning country_X cattle from IF meat location of increase trend production country_X location THEN increase location trend cattle of disease_pressure COMMIT/ EFoodLab
  • Technology - Reasoning country_X cattle from IF increase meat location of trend THEN production country_X increase location trend cattle of disease_pressure location cattle country_X meat production COMMIT/ EFoodLab
  • Technology - Reasoning country_X cattle from IF increase meat location of trend THEN production country_X increase location trend cattle of disease_pressure location cattle country_X increase meat production NEW FACT : Increase of meat production in country X COMMIT/ EFoodLab
  • Technology - Reasoning country_X cattle from IF increase meat location of trend THEN production country_X location cattle country_X increase = increase location trend cattle of disease_pressure meat production COMMIT/ EFoodLab
  • Technology - Reasoning cattle country_X from IF increase meat location of trend country_X THEN production country_X trend cattle of disease_pressure location cattle increase location disease_pressure increase country_X increase meat production antibiotics COMMIT/ EFoodLab
  • Technology - Reasoning disease_pressure IF country_X trend of increase cattle location meat country_X THEN cattle increase in from cattle from meat trend antibiotics disease_pressure increase country_X increase meat antibiotics production increase COMMIT/ EFoodLab
  • Technology - Reasoning country_X IF cattle meat increase in from country_X trend THEN antibiotics meat from in trend for food_safety_risk cattle increase antibiotics disease_pressure increase country_X meat antibiotics increase production increase food_safety_risk COMMIT/ EFoodLab
  • Reporting • The food safety expert needs: • The data sources that led to the inference of the food safety risk • • The inferred facts The rules used in the inference COMMIT/ EFoodLab
  • Reporting COMMIT/ EFoodLab
  • Reporting Food safety risk for meat from country X IF increased_use_of_antibiotics_in_country_X THEN food_safety_risk_for_meat_from_country_X Increased use of antibiotics in country X IF increased_disease_pressure_in_country_X THEN increased_use_of_antibiotics_in_country_X Increased disease pressure in cattle in country X IF increased_production_of_meat_in_country_X THEN increased_disease_pressure_in_countryX Increased production of meat in country X COMMIT/ EFoodLab
  • Conclusions • For realistic proactive system that can process all the data available we need: • • • • • information retrieval information extraction reasoning reporting And lots of expert knowledge that can be formalised in ontologies. COMMIT/ EFoodLab
  • Thank You! For more information: don.willems@wur.nl COMMIT/ EFoodLab