A Five Step sales forecasting tool for food businesses

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Do you know how to create a sales forecast? The usual answer for most food entrepreneurs is… no!

In retail foods you need a forecast and the best type forecast is called a Buildup Sales Forecast… it is based on certain assumptions that you make on what is called “sales per point of distribution”. It is not mathematically difficult and just requires understanding how the grocery retailer buyer thinks. It also is based on the category your product resides, your competition and then ultimately the consumer… the person who buys the product at the supermarket.

So here is Sales Forecasting in 5 Easy Steps

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A Five Step sales forecasting tool for food businesses

  1. 1. Getting Your Idea Out of the Kitchen On to the Retailer’s Shelves And onto the Customer’s Plate We help you create your Recipe for Success How to Create a Sales Forecast for your Food Business info@thefoodpreneur.com ● 973 433 6630
  2. 2. Forecasting Techniques
  3. 3. Sales Forecasting in 5 Easy Steps • Step 1 - The Sales Forecast Starts with the Selection of Your Target Grocery Store • Step 2 - How many stores are in the supermarket or grocery store you want to forecast? • Step 3 - How many products (the number of SKU’s) do you sell into that grocery store? • Step 4 - For each SKU, how many units per week do you think you will sell? • Step 5 - The Formula for Forecasting Sales
  4. 4. Build Up Assumptions • Product – Gluten Free Cupcakes • Number of Products – 4 • Price to Retailer - $2.00 ShopRite Number of Stores 263 Number of SKU's 4 Estimated Velocity 2 Per week Units per Store Per Week 2104 Price Per Unit Wholesale $ 2.00 Weekly Forecast $ 4,208 Annual Sales Forecast $ 218,816
  5. 5. Build Up Assumptions $218,816 $312,000 Whole Foods Number of Stores 375 Number of SKU's 4 Estimated Velocity 2 Per week Units per Store Per Week 3000 Price Per Unit Wholesale $ 2.00 Weekly Forecast $ 6,000 Annual Sales Forecast $ 312,000
  6. 6. Build Up Assumptions $218,816 • xxx $266,240 $305,344 Trader Joes Number of Stores 367 Number of SKU's 4 Estimated Velocity 2 Per week Units per Store Per Week 2936 Price Per Unit Wholesale $ 2.00 Weekly Forecast $ 5,872 Annual Sales Forecast $ 305,344
  7. 7. Build Up Assumptions Year 1 Revenue $790,400 Now… that has credibility and no SWAG!
  8. 8. Build Up Assumptions Year 2 through n $218,816 $266,240 $305,344 Walmart Supercenter Number of Stores 3029 Number of SKU's 4 Estimated Velocity 4 Per week Units per Store Per Week 48464 Price Per Unit Wholesale $ 2.00 Weekly Forecast $ 96,928 Annual Sales Forecast $ 5,040,256
  9. 9. Getting Your Idea Out of the Kitchen On to the Retailer’s Shelves And onto the Customer’s Plate Need help creating your recipe for success? Give us a call. info@thefoodpreneur.com ● 973 433 6630
  10. 10. Getting Your Idea Out of the Kitchen On to the Retailer’s Shelves And onto the Customer’s Plate Need help creating your recipe for success? Give us a call. info@thefoodpreneur.com ● 973 433 6630

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