Gerd Leonhard Npox 2008

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The End of Control, the People formerly known as Consumers... and the Future of Broadcasting Presentation at NPOX 2008 November 17 2008 by Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Remember?

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist How life changes with more bandwidth! We often overestimate how quickly change will happen We often underestimate the magnitude of the changes when it does happen

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist 12-18 months for some very very drastic changes!

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Source: kk.org

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist But: this is not about technology Emerging Cultural Practices

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Br o a d b a n d C u l tu r e

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist ! If you want to learn how to swim you’ll have to get wet!

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist A few shocking facts from the U.S.

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The Digital Natives: Internet over TV

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The Internet takes time away from all other Media

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist If the future What to do? audience migrates to the Internet then you must BECOME the Internet for them!

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Who is the DJ? Remember when you had a Monopoly in Attention?

Emerging cultural practices... Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist So what are those practices? • I want it when I want it [time-shifting] • I want it how and where I want it [place-shifting] • I want to be able to influence, talk back, determine [control-shifting] • I want real value for my money - or else... [money-shifting] • I want real value for my attention - or else... [attention-shifting]

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist To summarize

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist I program my media - it does not program me!

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist A huge challenge

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Because In all Media, Push is becoming Pull

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Broadband Consequences Now we need • Filters • Curators • Context • Relevance • Merit • Humanness

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Are you...?

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The Future: more and more fragmentation.. and (Re)-Aggregation

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Life Content Media Source: Flickr hillarylmrore

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Serious role changes

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Instead of Control, Trust is the key to success in a Networked World http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2008/apr/21/netmusic

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Once technology becomes dead-simple...

Next: Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Expect big changes when things actually work!

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Mainstream Media and the ‘Wisdom of the Crowds’

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The public TV / Radio license and... Users willing to pay $$ for Google...?

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Why? Finding and being Found. Sharing. Communicating. Connecting

Sharing is the key Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Content Creators Content Users Listeners Viewers

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Content: UGC is a MAJOR force

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Image via flickr.com/photos/spursfan_ace/ People now pay more to express themselves, and less to consume

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Crowd + Cloud = Serious Potential

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist No archive... no attention! http://flickr.com/photos/inweaknessbe/

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Does this worry you?

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Kevin Kelly @ kk.org: The key is to offer valuable intangibles: 1. Immediacy - priority access, immediate delivery 2. Personalization - tailored just for you... !MeCastquot; 3. Interpretation & Filtering - support and guidance 4. Authenticity - making sure itquot;s the real thing 5. Accessibility - wherever, whenever, however 6. Embodiment, Experience & Packaging 7. Community (i.e. the Tribes) 8. Findability & Curation

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The Future of Content: Attention-based Income Explodes Copy Based Revenues Attention Based Revenues 10.0 7.5 5.0 2.5 Was 0 Is Soon Near Future Mid-term Future

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Users = = Users

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist This is over

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Moving from take-down to permission, from NO to YES Rights Societies!

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Be trusted or... Perish!

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist This will NOT work in the Future A World of No becomes a World of Yes

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Together, Broadband Culture and Mobility will re-define how we think about: • Privacy • Authority • Ownership / Copyright • ‘Selling’ (and Marketing) • Work • Education

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Put yourself in the middle of all of it! Broadcaster

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist I m a g i n e Your Your TV Radio

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Imagine a multi platform multi device Google Content Reader: Broadcasters fill the need for Trust, for filtering Choice, for Curation

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Social Networks are the Next Broad- casters

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist EU Broadcasting in 3-5 years • 100% digital and fully converged with the Internet • All stations everywhere,anytime, any way we want • Video and Audio converging • Community features at the center • Geography fades, borders become soft • Radio license is first questioned and then expanded (based on a Flat Rate for Digital Music) • Advertising 2.0 emerges as major funding option • Public Radio offers full archives on-demand

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Some trigger factors: !Highspeed Wireless Internet everywhere !WiBro in the car !4G Wireless cell phone networks fully deployed !Radios with WLAN chips !Cell phones with DAB receivers (and WLAN) !Mobile computing devices that talk effortlessly to each other !Web5.0 as easy as a TV remote control !Everyone networked

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The Digital Music Flat Rate is inevitable ~1910 + = + = ~2009?

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The 6 Inevitables 1. Broadcasting must support time-shifting 2. Broadcasting must support space-shifting 3. Broadcasting must support sharing 4. Broadcasting must support interactivity 5. Broadcasting must support community 6. Broadband must return to be ‘social media’

DO Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Summary:

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The dangers of an open, shared and connected ecosystem will always be less than those of a closed & controlled ecosystem

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Thanks for listening! ! Email me at gerd@mediafuturist.com ! Download this presentation at www.mediafuturist.com ! Lifestream at www.gerdstream.com ! Twitter.com: gleonhard

Gerd Leonhard Npox 2008

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Gerd Leonhard Npox 2008 — Presentation Transcript

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