slides for my talk Startup Metrics 4 Pirates (Wildfire Interactive, May 2012)

1. Startup Metrics
For Pirates
AARRR
!
Wildfire Interactive
Redwood Shores
May 2012 - #AARRR
Dave McClure @DaveMcClure
http://500.co
http://500hats.typepad.com
http://slideshare.net/dmc500hats

2. Dave McClure
Developer, Entrepreneur, Marketer, Investor, GEEK!
00’s & 10’s:
• Investor: Founders Fund, Facebook fbFund, 500 Startups
• Companies: Mint.com, SlideShare, Twilio, WildFire, SendGrid
• Marketing: PayPal, Simply Hired, Mint.com, O’Reilly Media
• Speaker: Lean Startup, Web 2.0, Stanford/Facebook
80’s & 90’s:
• Entrepreneur: Founder/CEO Aslan Computing (acq’d)
• Developer: Windows / SQL DB consultant (Intel, MSFT)
• Engineer: Johns Hopkins‘88, BS Eng / Applied Math

3. 500 Startups
Seed Fund & Accelerator
(300+ companies, 15+ countries)

4. [ This Talk ]

5. Topics
• Basic Concepts of “Startup Metrics 4 Pirates”
• 3 Steps to AARRR: Product, Market, Revenue
• Constructing MVP: Just ONE Feature?
• Design (UX) & Distribution (MKTG)
• Winning: Market, Revenue, Profit?

6. Key Concepts
• MVP = F(Customer, Problem, Time or $$$)
• PMF = F(Customer, Solution, Alternatives)
• AUX = F(Customer, Design/UX, Metrics)
• ACQ = F(Customer, Campaign, Vol, Cost, Conv)
• WIN! = F(Customer, Usage, Dist, Revenue)

7. Geek Renaissance
• Tech Innovation
• Finance Innovation
• Design Innovation
• Social Innovation
• Global Innovation

8. Platforms 2.0
Search, Social, Mobile

9. What’s a Platform?
Successful Platforms
have 3 Things: Features
1) Features
2) Users
3) Money
Growth Profit
Awesome
.
Profitable
Users .
Growth Money

10. Distribution Platforms
Customer Reach: 100M+
• Search: Google (SEO/SEM)
• Social: Facebook, Twitter, Zynga, LinkedIn
• Mobile: Apple (iPhone, iPad), Android
• Media: YouTube (Video), Blogs, Photos
• Comm: Email, Chat, SMS, Voice

11. DO Marketing!
(It’s Not Evil)
• Marketing is Both Qualitative + Quantitative
• Qualitative: Create Emotion, Drive Action
• Quantitative: Measure Results of Action
• Design (UX) & Distribution (MKTG) Matter
• Volume (#), Cost ($), Conversion (%)

12. [ Interesting Shit. ]

13. Read Geoffrey Miller
Sex + Evolution + Consumer Mktg = Awesome Sauce

14. More Great Shit.
Psychology + Comics

15. [The Lean Startup]
[Startup Metrics 4 Pirates]

16. Just Gimme the GOOD Metrics.
Users, Pages, Clicks, Emails, $$$...?
Q: Which of these is best? How do you know?
• 1,000,000 one-time, unregistered unique visitors
• 500,000 visitors who view 2+ pages / stay 10+ sec
the
good • 200,000 visitors who clicked on a link or button
stuff.
• 20,000 registered users w/ email address
• 2,000 passionate fans who refer 5+ users / mo.
• 1,000 monthly subscribers @ $5/mo

17. The Lean Startup
• Talk to Customers; Discover Problems
• Progress ≠ Features (Less = More)
• Fast, Frequent Iteration (+ Feedback Loop)
• Measure Conversion; Compare 2+ Options
• Focus on Product/Market Fit (don’t “launch” b4)
• Keep it Simple & Actionable

18. Discover Customers
(Steve Blank, SteveBlank.com)

19. Iterate, Dammit.
(Eric Ries, StartupLessonsLearned.com)
IDEAS
LEARN BUILD
DATA
CODE
MEASURE

20. Product/Market Fit b4 “Launch”
(Sean Ellis, Startup-Marketing.com)
Startup-Marketing.com

21. AARRR!: 5-Step Startup Metrics Model
SEO Campaigns,
SEM PR Contests Biz
Social
Networks Dev
Blogs Affiliates
Apps & Direct,
Widgets Email Tel, TV
ACQUISITION
Domains
Emails & Alerts
Blogs, RSS,
io n
News Feeds
R e tent
Ads, Lead Gen, Biz Dev
System Events & Subscriptions,
Rev
Time-based Features
ECommerce
enu
Website.com
e$$$

22. Startup Metrics for Pirates
• Acquisition: users come to site from various channels
• Activation: users enjoy 1st visit: "happy” experience
• Retention: users come back, visit site multiple times
• Referral: users like product enough to refer others
• Revenue: users conduct some monetization behavior
AARRR!
(note: If you’re in a hurry, Google
“Startup Metrics” & watch 5m video)

23. One Step at a Time.
1. Make a Good Product: Activation & Retention
2. Market the Product: Acquisition & Referral
3. Make Money: Revenue & Profitability
“You probably can’t save your Ass and your Face
at the same time… so choose carefully.” – DMC

24. Startup Challenges
Startups have problems in 3 key areas:
• Management: Set Priorities, Define Key Metrics
• Product: Build “Right” Features. Measure, Iterate.
• Marketing: Distribution, Distribution, Distribution.
(Search, Social, Mobile)

25. Key Concepts
• MVP = F(Customer, Problem, Time or $$$)
• PMF = F(Customer, Solution, Alternatives)
• AUX = F(Customer, Design/UX, Metrics)
• ACQ = F(Customer, Campaign, Vol, Cost, Conv)
• WIN! = F(Customer, Usage, Dist, Revenue)

26. [ Constructing MVP ]

27. Role: Founder / CEO
Q: Which Customers? Problems? Metrics? Why?
A: Focus on Critical Few Actionable Metrics
(if you don’t use the metric to make a decision, it’s not actionable)
• Hypothesize Customer Lifecycle
• Target ~3-5 Conversion Events (tip: Less = More)
• Test, Measure, Iterate to Improve

28. Optimize 4 Happiness
(both User + Business) $$$
• Define States of User + Business Value
• Prioritize (Estimate) Relative Value of Each State
• Move Users: Lower Value -> Higher Value
• Optimize for User Happiness + Business $$$
• Achieve High Cust Value + Low ACQ$ @ Scale

29. What is Minimum Viable Product?
MVP = F(Customer, Problem, Time or $$$)
• Focus on CUSTOMER
– Qualitative Discovery, Quantitative Validation
• Get to know habits, problems, desires (FUN MATTERS)
– what causes pain? what causes pleasure?
• Define 1-5 TESTABLE Conversion Metrics of Value
– Attention/Usage (session time, clicks)
– Customer Data (email, connect, profile)
- Revenue (direct or indirect)
- Retention (visits over time, cohort behavior)
- Referral (users evangelize to other users)
• Note: Paid Solutions drive FOCUS (& pay rent)

30. Example Conversion Metrics
(note: *not* actuals… your mileage may vary)
Stage Conversion Status Conv. Est. Value
% (*not* cost)
Acquisition Visitors -> Site/Widget/Landing Page 60% $.05
(2+ pages, 10+ sec, 1+ clicks = don’t abandon)
Activation “Happy” 1st Visit; Usage/Signup 15% $.25
(clicks/time/pages, email/profile reg, feature usage)
Retention Users Come Back; Multiple Visits 5% $1
(1-3x visits/mo; email/feed open rate / CTR)
Referral Users Refer Others 1% $5
(cust sat >=8; viral K factor > 1; )
Revenue Users Pay / Generate $$$ 2% $50
(first txn, break-even, target profitability)

31. KILL A FEATURE.
Something Sucks. Find It. KILL It.
• STOP ADDING FEATURES.
• Find the ONE THING that users LOVE.
• How to figure out? TAKE. SHIT. AWAY.
• When they SCREAM, you’ve FOUND it.
• Then Bring it Back… Only Better.
• Tip: KILL a Feature Every Week.

32. [ Getting 2 PMF ]

33. Role: Product / Eng / Design
Q: What Features to Build? Why? When are you “Done”?
A: Easy-to-Find, Fun/Useful, Unique Features that
Increase Conversion (stop iterating when increase decelerates)
• Wireframes = Conversion Steps
• Measure, A/B Test, Iterate FAST (daily/weekly)
• Optimize for Conversion Improvement
– 80% on existing feature optimization
– 20% on new feature development

34. What is Product/Market Fit?
PMF = F(Customer, Solution, Alternatives*)
• Product / Market Fit occurs when:
– Customers like your stuff better than other options
– Not static, Not optimal – just Local Max 4 F(customers, solution, time)
– make sure you’re moving in optimal direction 2 local max
• Q: what competitive solutions are available?
– … that your customers know about?
– how are you diff/same?
– in ways that people care about? (will pay for)
• KILL a FEATURE regularly (or rotate 1% tests)
– Q: what is MOST $ cust pay 4 LEAST func MVP relative 2 BEST alt?
• NICHE 2 WIN: RE-define cust + DIFFerentiated features

35. Better or Different.
Funny!
Shocking
Accepted
!!!
Not Funny.

36. [ Testing 4 AUX ]

37. Discover Meaning
Why Should Users CARE About Your Product?
Kathy Sierra:
“Creating
Passionate
Users”

38. Discover Meaning
Keywords, Images, Call-to-Action
Top 10 - 100 words Call-to-Action
• Your Brand / Products • Words
• Customer Needs / Benefits • Images
• Competitor’s Brand / Products • Context
• Semantic Equivalents • Button/Link
• Misspellings • Emotion
Relevant images Result
• People • Positive?
• Products • Negative?
• Problems • Neutral (= Death)
• Solutions • A/B test & Iterate

39. How 2 Tell if Design/UX is Good?

40. [ Metrics 4 ACQ ]

41. Role: Marketing / Sales
Q: What channels? Which users? Why?
A: High Volume (#), Low Cost ($), High Conv (%)
• Design & Test Multiple Marketing Channels + Campaigns
• Select & Focus on Best-Performing Channels & Themes
• Optimize for conversion to target CTAs, not just site/landing page
• Match/Drive channel cost to/below revenue potential
• Low-Hanging Fruit:
– Blogs
– SEO/SEM
– Landing Pages
– Automated Emails

42. Example Marketing Channels
• PR • Email
• Contest • SEO / SEM
• Biz Dev • Blogs / Bloggers
• Direct Marketing • Viral / Referral
• Radio / TV / Print • Affiliate / CPA
• Dedicated Sales • Widgets / Apps
• Telemarketing • LOLCats ;)

43. MAARRRketing Plan
ACQ = F(Customer, Campaign, Vol, Cost, Conv)
Marketing Plan = Target Customer Acquisition Channels
• 3 Important Factors = Volume (#), Cost ($), Conversion (%)
• Measure conversion to target customer actions
• Test audience segments, campaign themes, Call-To-Action (CTAs)
[Gradually] Match Channel Costs => Revenue Potential
• Increase Vol. & Conversion, Decrease Cost, Optimize for Revenue Potential
• Avg Txn Value (ATV), Ann Rev Per User (ARPU), Cust Lifetime Value (CLV)
• Design channels that (eventually) cost <20-50% of target ATV, ARPU, CLV
Consider Costs, Scarce Resource Tradeoffs
• Actual $ expenses
• Marketing time & resources
• Product/Engineering time & resources
• Cashflow timing of expense vs. revenue, profit

44. [ What is WINNING? ]

45. Choose #WINNING Metrics
WIN = F(Customer, Usage, Dist, Revenue)
• after MVP functional use, several options:
– better Usage – Activation & Retention (AUX)
– more Users -- Distribution / Acquisition
– mo' Money --- U Wants 2 Get Paid, Yo.
• understand ACQ$ vs REV$, optimize 4 short-term
– High(er) volume usually a priority
– costs may change as vol increases

46. [ The Lean Investor ]

47. Startup 2.0:
“Lean Investor” Model
Method: Invest in startups using incremental
investment, iterative development. Start with
lots of small experiments, filter out failure, and
expand investment upon success.
• Incubator: $0-100K (“Product Viability”)
• Seed: $100-$1M (“Expand Distribution”)
• Venture: $1M-$5M (“Maximize Revenue”)

48. Investment #1: Incubate
(“Product”)
• Structure
– 1-3 founders
– $25K-$100K investment
– Incubator environment: multiple peers, mentors/advisors
• Build Functional Prototype / “Minimum Viable Product” (MVP):
– Concept->Alpha, ~3-6 months
– Develop Minimal Critical Feature Set => Get to “It Works”
– Instrument Basic Dashboard, Conversion Metrics
– Test Cust. Adoption (10-1000 users) / Cust. Satisfaction (Scale: 1-10)
• Demonstrate Concept, Reduce Product Risk, Test Functional Use
• Develop Metrics & Filter for Follow-on Investment

49. Investment #2: Seed
• Structure
(“Market”)
– 2-5 person team
– $100K-$1M investment
– Syndicate of Angel Investors / Small VC Funds
• Improve Product, Expand Market, Test Revenue:
– Alpha->Beta, ~6-12 months
– Customer Sat ≥ 6 => Get to “Doesn’t Suck”
– Setup A/B Testing Framework, Optimize Conversion
– Test Marketing Campaigns, Cust Acqstn Channels
• Prove Solution/Benefit, Assess Market Size
• Test Channel Cost, Revenue Opportunity
• Determine Org Structure, Key Hires

50. Investment #3: Venture
(“Revenue”)
• Structure
– 5-10 person team
– $1M-$5M investment
– VC Investors
• Make Money, Get to Sustainability:
– Beta->Production, 12-18 months
– Customer Sat ≥ 8 => “It Rocks, I’ll Tell My Friends”
– MktgPlan => Predictable Channels / Campaigns + Budget
– Scalability & Infrastructure, Customer Service & Operations
– Connect with Distribution Partners
• Prove/Expand Market, Operationalize Business
• Future Milestones: Profitable/Sustainable, Exit Options

51. Links & Resources
Additional References:
• Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion Robert Cialdini (book)
• The Mating Mind Geoffrey Miller (book)
• Putting the Fun in Functional Amy Jo Kim (etech 2006 preso)
• Futuristic Play Andrew Chen (blog)
• Don’t Make Me Think Steve Krug (book)
• Designing for the Social Web Joshua Porter (book, website)
• Startup Lessons Learned Eric Ries (blog)
• Customer Development Methodology Steve Blank (presentation, blog)
• Startup-Marketing.com Sean Ellis (blog)
• KISSmetrics.com Hiten Shah / Neil Patel (website)
• How To Pitch a VC Dave McClure (slides, NSFW)
• Understanding Comics Scott McCloud (book)

52. Appendix

53. Startup Metrics
Activation

54. Activation
SEO Campaigns,
SEM PR Contests Biz
Social
Networks Dev
Blogs Affiliates Activation Criteria:
Apps & Direct,
Widgets Email Tel, TV • 10-30+ seconds
Domains • 2-3+ page views
• 3-5+ clicks
• 1 key feature usage
do LOTS of landing page
& A/B tests –
make lots of dumb
guesses & iterate FAST
Website.com

55. Activation
What do users do on their first visit?
Example Activation Goals
• Click on something!
• Account sign up / Emails
• Referrals / Tell a friend
• Widgets / Embeds
• Low Bounce Rate
Activation Tips
• Less is more
• Focus on user experience / usability
• Provide incentives & call to actions
• Test and iterate continuously

56. Activation
What do users do on their first visit?
Key Metrics to Track
 Pages per visit
 Time on site
 Conversions

57. Activation
Tools
Crazy Egg (Visual Click Mapping)
http://crazyegg.com
Google Website Optimizer (A/B & Multivariate Testing)
http://google.com/websiteoptimizer
Marketo.com (B2B Lead Generation Management)
http://marketo.com
Resources
Experimentation and Testing: A Primer
kaushik.net/avinash/2006/05/experimentation-and-testing-a-primer.html
Landing Page Design Toolbox: 100 Tips & Tools
http://tinyurl.com/326co6
Landing Page Tutorials & Case Studies
http://www.copyblogger.com/landing-pages/
101 Easy Easy to use Google Website Optimizer
http://conversion-rate-experts.com/articles/101-google-website-optimizer-tips/

58. Startup Metrics
Retention

59. Retention
SEO Campaigns,
Automated emails: SEM PR Contests Biz
Social
Networks Dev
• lifecycle emails @ +3, +7, +30d Blogs Affiliates
Apps & Direct,
• status / “best of” weekly/monthly Widgets Email Tel, TV
• “something happened” emails Domains
BUT:
• make it easy to unsubscribe
Emails & Alerts
Blogs, RSS,
News Feeds
Tip on emails:
• > 80% or more on SUBJECT LINE
System Events &
• < 20% or less on BODY TEXT Time-based Features
Website.com

60. Retention
How do users come back? How often?
Cohort Analysis:
• Distrib of Visits over Time
• Rate of Decay
• Effective Customer Lifecycle
Retention Methods
 Automated Emails
* Track open rate / CTR / Quantity
 RSS / News Feeds
* Track % viewed / CTR / Quantity
 Widgets / Embeds
* Track impressions / CTR / Quantity

61. Retention
How do users come back? How often?
Example Retention Goals
• 1 - 3+ visits per month
• 20% open rate / 2% CTR
• High deliverability / Low spam rating
• Long customer life cycle / Low decay
• Identify fanatics and cheerleaders
Retention Tips
• Email is simple and it works
• BUT make unsubscribe easy
• 80% subject line / 20% body text
• ACTUALLY 99% subject line / 1% body text
• Fanatics = virality + affiliate channel (bloggers?)

62. Retention
How do users come back? How often?
Key Metrics to Track
 Source
 Quantity
 Conversions
 Visitor Loyalty
 Session Length

63. Retention
Tools
Campaign Monitor / MailChimp (email newsletter software)
campaignmonitor.com / mailchimp.com
TriggerMail (site-centric email management)
triggermail.net
Litmus (email and website design testing - clients / browsers)
litmusapp.com
Resources
30 free HTML email templates
campaignmonitor.com/resources/templates.aspx
Best Practices in Writing Email Subject Lines
mailchimp.com/resources/best-practices-in-writing-email-subject-
lines.phtml
Learning Viral: Viral Emails of Tagged.com
okdork.com/2008/04/10/learning-viral-studying-taggedcom/

64. Startup Metrics
Acquisition

65. Acquisition
SEO Campaigns,
SEM PR Contests Biz
Social
Networks Dev
Blogs Affiliates
Apps & Direct,
Widgets Email Tel, TV
Domains
Marketing Channels:
• largest-volume (#)
• lowest-cost ($)
• best-performing (%)
Website.com

66. Acquisition
Where are users coming from?
Acquisition Methods
 SEO / SEM
 Blogs
 Email
 Social Media &
Social Networks
 Domains

67. Acquisition
Keyword Vocabulary
Top 10 - 100 words
• Your Brand / Products
• Customer Needs / Benefits
• Competitor’s Brand / Products
• Semantic Equivalents
• Misspellings
Things to analyze
• Sources
• Volume
• Cost
• Conversion

68. Acquisition
Where are users coming from?
Key Metrics to Track Example
 Quantity (#)
 Cost ($)
 Conversions (%)

69. Acquisition
Tools
Google Analytics (web analytics)
google.com/analytics
Google Keyword Tool (keyword research tool)
adwords.google.com/select/KeywordToolExternal
SEO Book Tools (SEO related tools)
tools.seobook.com
Resources
SEO Book Blog
seobook.com/blog
The Social Media Manual: Read Before You Play
searchengineland.com/071120-144401.php
Strategies to ruthlessly acquire users
andrewchen.typepad.com/andrew_chens_blog/2007/04/10_obvious_stra.
html

70. Startup Metrics
Referral

71. Referral
SEO Campaigns,
SEM PR Contests Biz
Social
Networks Dev
Blogs Affiliates
Apps & Direct,
Widgets Email Tel, TV
Acquisition
Domains
Emails & Alerts
Blogs, RSS,
n
News Feeds ntio
Rete
Focus on driving referrals
System Events &
Time-based Features
*after* users have a
“happy” experience;
avg score >= 8 out of 10
Website.com

72. Referral
How do users refer others?
Referral Methods
 Send to Friend:
Email / IM
 Social Media
 Widgets / Embeds
 Affiliates

73. Referral
Viral Growth Factor
Viral Growth Factor = X * Y * Z
X = % of users who invite other people
Y = average # of people that they invited
Z = % of users who accepted an invitation
A viral growth factor > 1 means an exponential organic user acquisition.

74. Referral
Tools
Gigya (social media distribution & tracking tool)
gigya.com
ShareThis / AddThis (sharing buttons)
sharethis.com / addthis.com
GetMyContacts (PHP contacts importing & invitation software)
getmycontacts.com
Resources
Seven Ways to GO VIRAL
lsvp.wordpress.com/2007/03/02/seven-ways-to-go-viral/
What’s your viral loop? Understanding the engine of adoption
andrewchen.typepad.com/andrew_chens_blog/2007/07/whats-your-
vira.html
Metrics: Where Users Come From
slideshare.net/guest2968b8/rockyou-snap-summit-32508

75. Startup Metrics
Revenue

76. Revenue
SEO Campaigns,
SEM PR Contests Biz
Social
Networks Dev
Blogs Affiliates
Apps & Direct,
Widgets Email Tel, TV
Acquisition
Domains
Emails & Alerts
Blogs, RSS,
io n
News Feeds
R ete n t
Ads, Lead Gen, Biz Dev
System Events & Subscriptions,
Rev
Time-based Features
ECommerce
enu
This is the part *you* Website.com
e$$$
still have to figure out…
(we don’t know jack
about your business)

77. Revenue
How do you make money?
Revenue Tips
• Don’t Rely on AdSense (only)
• Start Free => 2% “Freemium”
• Subscription / Recurring transactions
• Qualify your customers -> Lead generation (arbitrage)
• Sell something! (physical or virtual)

78. Revenue
Resources & Tools
Revenue Metrics (Andrew Chen)
http://tinyurl.com/47r63a
How to Create a Profitable “Freemium” Startup (Andrew Chen)
http://tinyurl.com/8z9ygk
2008 Affiliate Marketing Review (Scott Jangro)
http://tinyurl.com/86wak4