Startup Metrics 4 Pirates (Seoul)

Startup Metrics 4 Pirates AARRR AARRR !! Seoul, Korea Oct 2012 - #AARRR Dave McClure @DaveMcClure http://500.co http://500hats.typepad.com http://slideshare.net/dmc500hats

WARNING:

WARNING!!! this deck is guaranteed to offend,provide tragically incorrect advice, and perhaps get you arrested. Deal with it.

Dave McClure Developer, Entrepreneur, Marketer, Investor, GEEK!00’s & 10’s:• Investor: Founders Fund, Facebook fbFund, 500 Startups• Companies: Mint.com, SlideShare, Twilio, WildFire, SendGrid• Marketing: PayPal, Simply Hired, Mint.com, O’Reilly Media• Speaker: Lean Startup, Web 2.0, Stanford/Facebook80’s & 90’s:• Entrepreneur: Founder/CEO Aslan Computing (acq’d)• Developer: Windows / SQL DB consultant (Intel, MSFT)• Engineer: Johns Hopkins‘88, BS Eng / Applied Math

500 StartupsSeed Fund & Accelerator (350+ companies, 20+ countries)

[ This Talk ]

Topics• Basic Concepts of “Startup Metrics 4 Pirates”• 3 Steps to AARRR: Product, Market, Revenue• Constructing MVP: Just ONE Feature?• Design (UX) & Distribution (MKTG)• Winning: Market, Revenue, Profit?

Key Concepts• MVP = F(Customer, Problem, Time or $$$)• PMF = F(Customer, Solution, Alternatives)• AUX = F(Customer, Design/UX, Metrics)• ACQ = F(Customer, Campaign, Vol, Cost, Conv)• WIN! = F(Customer, Usage, Dist, Revenue)

Platforms 2.0Search, Social, Mobile

What’s a Platform?Successful Platformshave 3 Things: Features Features1) Features2) Users3) Money Growth Profit Awesome .. Profitable Users Users .. Growth Money Money

Distribution PlatformsCustomer Reach: 100M+ • Search: Google (SEO/SEM) • Social: Facebook, Twitter, Zynga, LinkedIn • Mobile: Apple (iPhone, iPad), Android • Media: YouTube (Video), Blogs, Photos • Comm: Email, Chat, SMS, Voice

DO Marketing! (It’s Not Evil)• Marketing is Both Qualitative + Quantitative• Qualitative: Create Emotion, Drive Action• Quantitative: Measure Results of Action• Design (UX) & Distribution (MKTG) Matter• Volume (#), Cost ($), Conversion (%)

[ Interesting Shit. ]

Read Geoffrey MillerSex + Evolution + Consumer Mktg = Awesome Sauce

More Great Shit. Psychology + Comics

[The Lean Startup][Startup Metrics 4 Pirates]

Just Gimme the GOOD Metrics. Users, Pages, Clicks, Emails, $$$...? Q: Which of these is best? How do you know? • 1,000,000 one-time, unregistered unique visitors • 500,000 visitors who view 2+ pages / stay 10+ secthegood • 200,000 visitors who clicked on a link or buttonstuff. • 20,000 registered users w/ email address • 2,000 passionate fans who refer 5+ users / mo. • 1,000 monthly subscribers @ $5/mo

The Lean Startup• Talk to Customers; Discover Problems• Progress ≠ Features (Less = More)• Fast, Frequent Iteration (+ Feedback Loop)• Measure Conversion; Compare 2+ Options• Focus on Product/Market Fit (don’t “launch” b4)• Keep it Simple & Actionable

Discover Customers(Steve Blank, SteveBlank.com)

Iterate, Dammit.(Eric Ries, StartupLessonsLearned.com) IDEAS LEARN BUILD DATA CODE MEASURE

Product/Market Fit b4 “Launch” (Sean Ellis, Startup-Marketing.com)Startup-Marketing.com

AARRR!: Startup Metrics Model SEO SEO Campaigns, Campaigns, SEM SEM PR PR Contests Contests Biz Social Social Biz Networks Networks Dev Dev Blogs Blogs Affiliates Affiliates Apps && Apps Direct, Direct, Widgets Widgets Email Email Tel, TV Tel, TV Domains Domains ACQUISITION ACQUISITION Emails & Alerts Emails & AlertsBlogs, RSS,Blogs, RSS, n ntioNews FeedsNews Feeds R et e Ads, Lead Gen, Biz Dev Biz Dev Ads, Lead Gen, System Events & System Events & Subscriptions, Subscriptions, Rev Reve Time-based Features Time-based Features ECommerce ECommerce enue nue $ Website.com $$$ $$

Startup Metrics for Pirates• Acquisition: users come to site from various channels• Activation: users enjoy 1st visit: "happy” experience• Retention: users come back, visit site multiple times• Referral: users like product enough to refer others• Revenue: users conduct some monetization behavior AARRR!! AARRR (note: If you’re in a hurry, Google “Startup Metrics” & watch 5m video)

One Step at a Time.1. Make a Good Product: Activation & Retention2. Market the Product: Acquisition & Referral3. Make Money: Revenue & Profitability“You probably can’t save your Ass and your Faceat the same time… so choose carefully.” – DMC

Startup ChallengesStartups have problems in 3 key areas:• Management: Set Priorities, Define Key Metrics• Product: Build “Right” Features. Measure, Iterate.• Marketing: Distribution, Distribution, Distribution. (Search, Social, Mobile)

Key Concepts• MVP = F(Customer, Problem, Time or $$$)• PMF = F(Customer, Solution, Alternatives)• AUX = F(Customer, Design/UX, Metrics)• ACQ = F(Customer, Campaign, Vol, Cost, Conv)• WIN! = F(Customer, Usage, Dist, Revenue)

[ Constructing MVP ]

Role: Founder / CEOQ: Which Customers? Problems? Metrics? Why?A: Focus on Critical Few Actionable Metrics (

Optimize 4 Happiness (both User + Business) $$$• Define States of User + Business Value• Prioritize (Estimate) Relative Value of Each State• Move Users: Lower Value -> Higher Value• Optimize for User Happiness + Business $$$• Achieve High Cust Value + Low ACQ$ @ Scale

What is Minimum Viable Product?MVP = F(Customer, Problem, Time or $$$)• Focus on CUSTOMER – Qualitative Discovery, Quantitative Validation• Get to know habits, problems, desires (FUN MATTERS) – what causes pain? what causes pleasure?• Define 1-5 TESTABLE Conversion Metrics of Value – Attention/Usage (session time, clicks) – Customer Data (email, connect, profile) - Revenue (direct or indirect) - Retention (visits over time, cohort behavior) - Referral (users evangelize to other users)• Note: Paid Solutions drive FOCUS (& pay rent)

Example Conversion Metrics (note: *not* actuals… your mileage may vary) Stage Conversion Status Conv. Est. Value % (*not* cost)Acquisition Visitors -> Site/Widget/Landing Page 60% $.05 (2+ pages, 10+ sec, 1+ clicks = don’t abandon)Activation “Happy” 1st Visit; Usage/Signup 15% $.25 (clicks/time/pages, email/profile reg, feature usage)Retention Users Come Back; Multiple Visits 5% $1 (1-3x visits/mo; email/feed open rate / CTR) Referral Users Refer Others 1% $5 (cust sat >=8; viral K factor > 1; ) Revenue Users Pay / Generate $$$ 2% $50 (first txn, break-even, target profitability)

KILL A FEATURE. Something Sucks. Find It. KILL It.• STOP ADDING FEATURES.• Find the ONE THING that users LOVE.• How to figure out? TAKE. SHIT. AWAY.• When they SCREAM, you’ve FOUND it.• Then Bring it Back… Only Better.• Tip: KILL a Feature Every Week.

[ Getting 2 PMF ]

Role: Product / Eng / DesignQ: What Features to Build? Why? When are you “Done”?A: Easy-to-Find, Fun/Useful, Unique Features that Increase Conversion (stop iterating when increase decelerates)• Wireframes = Conversion Steps• Measure, A/B Test, Iterate FAST (daily/weekly)• Optimize for Conversion Improvement – 80% on existing feature optimization – 20% on new feature development

What is Product/Market Fit?PMF = F(Customer, Solution, Alternatives*)• Product / Market Fit occurs when: – Customers like your stuff better than other options – Not static, Not optimal – just Local Max 4 F(customers, solution, time) – make sure you’re moving in optimal direction 2 local max• Q: what competitive solutions are available? – … that your customers know about? – how are you diff/same? – in ways that people care about? (will pay for)• KILL a FEATURE regularly (or rotate 1% tests) – Q: what is MOST $ cust pay 4 LEAST func MVP relative 2 BEST alt?• NICHE 2 WIN: RE-define cust + DIFFerentiated features

Better or Different. Funny! ShockingAccepted !!! Not Funny.

[ Testing 4 AUX ]

Discover Meaning Why Should Users CARE About Your Product?Kathy Sierra:“CreatingPassionateUsers”

Discover Meaning Keywords, Images, Call-to-ActionTop 10 - 100 words Call-to-Action • Your Brand / Products • Words • Customer Needs / Benefits • Images • Competitor’s Brand / Products • Context • Semantic Equivalents • Button/Link • Misspellings • EmotionRelevant images Result • People • Positive? • Products • Negative? • Problems • Neutral (= Death) • Solutions • A/B test & Iterate

How 2 Tell if Design/UX is Good?

[ Metrics 4 ACQ ]

Role: Marketing / SalesQ: What channels? Which users? Why?A: High Volume (#), Low Cost ($), High Conv (%)• Design & Test Multiple Marketing Channels + Campaigns• Select & Focus on Best-Performing Channels & Themes• Optimize for conversion to target CTAs, not just site/landing page• Match/Drive channel cost to/below revenue potential• Low-Hanging Fruit: – Blogs – SEO/SEM – Landing Pages – Automated Emails

Example Marketing Channels• PR • Email• Contest • SEO / SEM• Biz Dev • Blogs / Bloggers• Direct Marketing • Viral / Referral• Radio / TV / Print • Affiliate / CPA• Dedicated Sales • Widgets / Apps• Telemarketing • LOLCats ;)

MAARRRketing Plan ACQ = F(Customer, Campaign, Vol, Cost, Conv)Marketing Plan = Target Customer Acquisition Channels • 3 Important Factors = Volume (#), Cost ($), Conversion (%) • Measure conversion to target customer actions • Test audience segments, campaign themes, Call-To-Action (CTAs)[Gradually] Match Channel Costs => Revenue Potential • Increase Vol. & Conversion, Decrease Cost, Optimize for Revenue Potential • Avg Txn Value (ATV), Ann Rev Per User (ARPU), Cust Lifetime Value (CLV) • Design channels that (eventually) cost <20-50% of target ATV, ARPU, CLVConsider Costs, Scarce Resource Tradeoffs • Actual $ expenses • Marketing time & resources • Product/Engineering time & resources • Cashflow timing of expense vs. revenue, profit

[ What is WINNING? ]

Choose #WINNING MetricsWIN = F(Customer, Usage, Dist, Revenue)• after MVP functional use, several options: – better Usage – Activation & Retention (AUX) – more Users -- Distribution / Acquisition – mo Money --- U Wants 2 Get Paid, Yo.• understand ACQ$ vs REV$, optimize 4 short-term – High(er) volume usually a priority – costs may change as vol increases

[ The Lean Investor ]

Startup 2.0: “Lean Investor” ModelMethod: Invest in startups using incremental investment, iterative development. Start with lots of small experiments, filter out failure, and expand investment upon success.• Incubator: $0-250K (“Product Viability”)• Seed: $100K-$2M (“Expand Distribution”)• Venture: $1M-$5M (“Maximize Revenue”)

Investment #1: Incubate (“Product”)• Structure – 1-3 founders – $25K-$250K investment – Incubator environment: multiple peers, mentors/advisors• Build Functional Prototype / “Minimum Viable Product” (MVP): – Concept->Alpha, ~3-6 months – Develop Minimal Critical Feature Set => Get to “It Works” – Instrument Basic Dashboard, Conversion Metrics – Test Cust. Adoption (10-1000 users) / Cust. Satisfaction (Scale: 1-10)• Demonstrate Concept, Reduce Product Risk, Test Functional Use• Develop Metrics & Filter for Follow-on Investment

Investment #2: Seed• Structure (“Market”) – 2-5 person team – $100K-$2M investment – Syndicate of Angel Investors / Small VC Funds• Improve Product, Expand Market, Test Revenue: – Alpha->Beta, ~6-12 months – Customer Sat ≥ 6 => Get to “Doesn’t Suck” – Setup A/B Testing Framework, Optimize Conversion – Test Marketing Campaigns, Cust Acqstn Channels• Prove Solution/Benefit, Assess Market Size• Test Channel Cost, Revenue Opportunity• Determine Org Structure, Key Hires

Investment #3: Venture (“Revenue”)• Structure – 5-10 person team – $1M-$5M investment – VC Investors• Make Money, Get to Sustainability: – Beta->Production, 12-18 months – Customer Sat ≥ 8 => “It Rocks, I’ll Tell My Friends” – MktgPlan => Predictable Channels / Campaigns + Budget – Scalability & Infrastructure, Customer Service & Operations – Connect with Distribution Partners• Prove/Expand Market, Operationalize Business• Future Milestones: Profitable/Sustainable, Exit Options

NOTE: Don’t Pitch Me, Bro.Seriously: Don’t. F**king. Pitch Me. (and don’t email me either, cuz i won’t read it)

Links & ResourcesAdditional References:• Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion Robert Cialdini (book)• The Mating Mind Geoffrey Miller (book)• Putting the Fun in Functional Amy Jo Kim (etech 2006 preso)• Futuristic Play Andrew Chen (blog)• Don’t Make Me Think Steve Krug (book)• Designing for the Social Web Joshua Porter (book, website)• Startup Lessons Learned Eric Ries (blog)• Customer Development Methodology Steve Blank (presentation, blog)• Startup-Marketing.com Sean Ellis (blog)• KISSmetrics.com Hiten Shah / Neil Patel (website)• How To Pitch a VC Dave McClure (slides, NSFW)• Understanding Comics Scott McCloud (book)

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Startup Metrics 4 Pirates (Seoul)

by Dave McClure on Oct 10, 2012

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