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ICEB'08 Keynote Talk

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    ICEB'08 Keynote Talk - Presentation Transcript

    1. e-Business Innovation Surviving the Coming Decades David A. Marca Welcome! University of Phoenix One Research Drive Westborough, MA 01581 U.S.A. dmarca@email.phoenix.edu July 26, 2008 ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 1
    2. e-Business Innovation Surviving the Coming Decades David A. Marca Disclaimers University of Phoenix One Research Drive Westborough, MA 01581 U.S.A. dmarca@email.phoenix.edu July 26, 2008 ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 2
    3. Outline e-Business Innovation Surviving the Coming Decades Access the Electronic Long Tail Commerce Part I… If markets change… ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 3
    4. Outline e-Business Innovation Surviving the Coming Decades Access the Electronic Long Tail Commerce Premium Electronic Part I… at Discount Bargaining If markets change… Then If products change… ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 4
    5. Outline e-Business Innovation Surviving the Coming Decades Access the Electronic Long Tail Commerce Premium Electronic Part I… at Discount Bargaining If markets change… Business Dynamic Load, Replicas Trade Protocol Then If products change… Then e-Business needs… ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 5
    6. Outline e-Business Innovation Surviving the Coming Decades Access the Electronic Long Tail Commerce Premium Electronic Part I… at Discount Bargaining If markets change… Business Dynamic Load, Replicas Trade Protocol Then If products change… Profitable Adaptive Then e-Business needs… Operations Web Services ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 6
    7. Outline e-Business Innovation Surviving the Coming Decades Access the Electronic Long Tail Commerce Premium Electronic Part I… at Discount Bargaining If markets change… Business Dynamic Load, Replicas Trade Protocol Then If products change… Profitable Adaptive Then e-Business needs… Operations Web Services Redesigned Layered Technologies Distribution Part II… If technology changes… ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 7
    8. Outline e-Business Innovation Surviving the Coming Decades Access the Electronic Long Tail Commerce Premium Electronic Part I… at Discount Bargaining If markets change… Business Dynamic Load, Replicas Trade Protocol Then If products change… Profitable Adaptive Then e-Business needs… Operations Web Services Redesigned Layered Technologies Distribution Part II… Individual Broadband Branding + Video If technology changes… Then If business changes… ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 8
    9. Outline e-Business Innovation Surviving the Coming Decades Access the Electronic Long Tail Commerce Premium Electronic Part I… at Discount Bargaining If markets change… Business Dynamic Load, Replicas Trade Protocol Then If products change… Profitable Adaptive Then e-Business needs… Operations Web Services Redesigned Layered Technologies Distribution Part II… Individual Broadband Branding + Video If technology changes… Instant, Virtual World-Wide Then If business changes… Companies Platforms Then e-Business needs… ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 9
    10. Outline e-Business Innovation Surviving the Coming Decades Access the Electronic Long Tail Commerce Premium Electronic Part I… at Discount Bargaining If markets change… Business Dynamic Load, Replicas Trade Protocol Then If products change… Profitable Adaptive Then e-Business needs… Operations Web Services Redesigned Layered Technologies Distribution Part II… Individual Broadband Branding + Video If technology changes… Instant, Virtual World-Wide Then If business changes… Companies Platforms Then e-Business needs… Real-Time Business Decisions Intelligence ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 10
    11. Part 1 e-Business Innovation Surviving the Coming Decades Access the Electronic Long Tail Commerce If markets change… Mass Market Long Tail Market Birth Wave Family Formation Peak Spending Austerity Spending ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 11
    12. U.S. Births 1900–2000 Dent, H. (2000). The Next Great Bubble Boom. The Free Press. Birth 4,700 Wave 4,200 3,700 3,200 2,700 2,200 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 12
    13. U.S. Family Formation 1925–2025 (25 year lag) Dent, H. (2000). The Next Great Bubble Boom. The Free Press. Birth Family 4,700 Wave Wave 4,200 3,700 3,200 2,700 2,200 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 13
    14. U.S. Peak Spending 1950–2050 (50 year lag) Dent, H. (2000). The Next Great Bubble Boom. The Free Press. Birth Family Affluence 4,700 Wave Wave Wave 4,200 3,700 3,200 2,700 2,200 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 14
    15. The Long Tail Market Profitable Access is Proven Anderson, C. (2004). “The Long Tail,” Wired Magazine, October. 6,000 Anatomy of The Long Tail • Average plays per month 5,000 • Song titles (000s) 4,000 Available at Wal-Mart + Rhapsody (40k) Available at Rhapsody only (460k) 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 15
    16. U.S. Peak Spending Declines 1965-1985 and 2010–2025 CNN. (2008). "Americans Tightening Their Belts," Money.CNN.com, April 25. Fox, J. (2008). “10 Ideas that are Changing the World: The New Austerity,” Time Magazine, March 24. Dent, H. (2000). The Next Great Bubble Boom. The Free Press. Birth Austerity Austerity 4,700 Wave Wave Wave 4,200 3,700 3,200 2,700 2,200 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 16
    17. Part 2 e-Business Innovation Surviving the Coming Decades Access the Electronic Long Tail Commerce Premium Electronic If markets change… at Discount Bargaining Mass Market Long Tail Market Then If products change… Standard Value Standard Discount Premium Value ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 17
    18. Product Change Standard Segment Dent, H. (2000). The Next Great Bubble Boom. The Free Press. Birth Family Affluence 100% Wave Wave Wave . 80% Premium . Segment 60% . Standard Segment 40% . 20% Discount . Segment 0% . 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 Manufacturing Manufacturing Standard Products Urbanization . Standard Products . ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 18
    19. Product Change Discount Segment Dent, H. (2000). The Next Great Bubble Boom. The Free Press. Birth Family Affluence 100% Wave Wave Wave . 80% Premium . Segment 60% . Standard Segment 40% . 20% Discount . Segment 0% . 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 Outsourcing Manufacturing Outsourcing Standard Products Discount Products Strong Brands . . Discount Products . . ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 19
    20. Product Change Premium Segment Dent, H. (2000). The Next Great Bubble Boom. The Free Press. Birth Family Affluence 100% Wave Wave Wave . 80% Premium . Segment 60% . Premium Standard Segment Segment 40% . 20% Discount . Segment 0% . 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 Affluent Consumers Manufacturing Outsourcing e-Business 1.0 Standard Products Discount Products Premium Products Small Markets . . . Premium Products . . . ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 20
    21. Product Change? Value Segment Resinas, M., et. al. (2006). “Towards Automated Service Trading,” in proc. ICE-B’06. Birth Family Affluence 100% Wave Wave Wave . Value Segment 80% Premium . Segment 60% . Premium Standard Segment Segment 40% . 20% Discount . Segment 0% . 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 Software Bargaining Manufacturing Outsourcing e-Business 1.0 e-Business 2.0 Standard Products Discount Products Premium Products Value Products Instant Small Markets . . . . Premium @ Discount . . . . ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 21
    22. Electronic Bargaining Agents Instant Small Markets! Mok, W., Sundarraj, R. (2005). “Learning Algorithms for Single-Instance Electronic Negotiations Using the Buyer holds out Time-Dependent Behavioral Tactic,” ACM Trans. on Internet Technology, 5(1), February. Seller holds out ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 22
    23. Electronic Bargaining Agents Instant Small Markets! Mok, W., Sundarraj, R. (2005). “Learning Algorithms for Single-Instance Electronic Negotiations Using the Buyer holds out Buyer concedes Time-Dependent Behavioral Tactic,” ACM Trans. on Internet Technology, 5(1), February. Seller holds out Seller concedes ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 23
    24. Electronic Bargaining Agents Instant Small Markets! Mok, W., Sundarraj, R. (2005). “Learning Algorithms for Single-Instance Electronic Negotiations Using the Buyer holds out Buyer concedes Time-Dependent Behavioral Tactic,” ACM Trans. on Internet Technology, 5(1), February. Seller holds out Seller concedes Buyer concedes Seller holds out ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 24
    25. Electronic Bargaining Agents Instant Small Markets! Mok, W., Sundarraj, R. (2005). “Learning Algorithms for Single-Instance Electronic Negotiations Using the Buyer holds out Buyer concedes Time-Dependent Behavioral Tactic,” ACM Trans. on Internet Technology, 5(1), February. Seller holds out Seller concedes Buyer holds out Buyer concedes Seller concedes Seller holds out ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 25
    26. Part 3 e-Business Innovation Surviving the Coming Decades Access the Electronic Long Tail Commerce Premium Electronic If markets change… at Discount Bargaining Mass Market Long Tail Market Business Dynamic Load, Replicas Trade Protocol Then If products change… Standard Value Then e-Business needs… Customer-Based Design Authentic Interactions Business Replicas Profitable Operations ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 26
    27. Architecture Enable Customer-Based Design Grover, V., (2007). “An Empirically Derived Model for the Adoption of Customer-based Inter-organizational Systems,” Decision Sciences, July. Buy-Specific Front-End Supply-Specific Back-End Buyer Provider Supplier Commodity ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 27
    28. Customer-Based Design Authenticity during Interactions Cloud, J. (2008). “10 Ideas that are Changing the World: Synthetic Authenticity,” Time Magazine, March 24. Buy-Specific Front-End Supply-Specific Back-End Buyer Provider Supplier Commodity Order Service Pay ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 28
    29. Replication by Market Business Replicas for Small Markets Dent, H. (2000). The Next Great Bubble Boom. The Free Press. Buy-Specific Front-End Supply-Specific Back-End Buyer Provider Supplier Commodity Order Service Service Service Pay ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 29
    30. Business Replicas XML Contracts Protocols + Loading Resinas, M., et. al. (2006). “Towards Automated Service Trading,” in proc. ICE-B’06. Sponziello, A. (2007). “Design Strategies for Web Based ITS Applications,” in proc. ICE-B’07. Marca, D. (2008). “e-Business Innovation,” in proc. ICE-B’08. Electronic Trading Protocol e-Business Function Dynamic Class Loading ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 30
    31. Business Replicas XML Contracts Data Resinas, M., et. al. (2006). “Towards Automated Service Trading,” in proc. ICE-B’06. Sponziello, A. (2007). “Design Strategies for Web Based ITS Applications,” in proc. ICE-B’07. Marca, D. (2008). “e-Business Innovation,” in proc. ICE-B’08. Electronic Trading Protocol Interface Scope Contents How Implemented Input What Data Definitions XML, XML Schema Output What Data Definitions XML, XML Schema Input e-Business Output Function Dynamic Class Loading XML: - general-purpose specification for creating custom markup languages. ebXML: - a family of XML standards - enable the global use of electronic business information - interoperable, secure, and consistent manner by all trading partners. XML schema: - an XML document type description - expressed in terms of constraints of structure and content - above & beyond syntax constraints imposed by XML itself. ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 31
    32. Business Replicas XML Contracts Behavior Resinas, M., et. al. (2006). “Towards Automated Service Trading,” in proc. ICE-B’06. Sponziello, A. (2007). “Design Strategies for Web Based ITS Applications,” in proc. ICE-B’07. Marca, D. (2008). “e-Business Innovation,” in proc. ICE-B’08. Electronic Trading Protocol Interface Scope Contents How Implemented Input What Data Definitions XML, XML Schema Control Output What Data Definitions XML, XML Schema Control When Events, Triggers, Coordination XML, XML Schema, ebXML Input e-Business Output Function Dynamic Class Loading XML: - general-purpose specification for creating custom markup languages. ebXML: - a family of XML standards - enable the global use of electronic business information - interoperable, secure, and consistent manner by all trading partners. XML schema: - an XML document type description - expressed in terms of constraints of structure and content - above & beyond syntax constraints imposed by XML itself. ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 32
    33. Business Replicas XML Contracts Function Resinas, M., et. al. (2006). “Towards Automated Service Trading,” in proc. ICE-B’06. Sponziello, A. (2007). “Design Strategies for Web Based ITS Applications,” in proc. ICE-B’07. Marca, D. (2008). “e-Business Innovation,” in proc. ICE-B’08. Electronic Trading Protocol Interface Scope Contents How Implemented Input What Data Definitions XML, XML Schema Control Output What Data Definitions XML, XML Schema Control When Events, Triggers, Coordination XML, XML Schema, ebXML Input e-Business Output Mechanism How Algorithms, Standards, Regulations ebXML Function Dynamic Class Loading Mechanism XML: - general-purpose specification for creating custom markup languages. ebXML: - a family of XML standards - enable the global use of electronic business information - interoperable, secure, and consistent manner by all trading partners. XML schema: - an XML document type description - expressed in terms of constraints of structure and content - above & beyond syntax constraints imposed by XML itself. ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 33
    34. Business Replicas XML Contracts Industry Benchmark Resinas, M., et. al. (2006). “Towards Automated Service Trading,” in proc. ICE-B’06. Sponziello, A. (2007). “Design Strategies for Web Based ITS Applications,” in proc. ICE-B’07. Marca, D. (2008). “e-Business Innovation,” in proc. ICE-B’08. Electronic Trading Protocol Interface Scope Contents How Implemented Input What Data Definitions XML, XML Schema Control Output What Data Definitions XML, XML Schema Control When Events, Triggers, Coordination XML, XML Schema, ebXML Input e-Business Output Mechanism How Algorithms, Standards, Regulations ebXML Function Dynamic Class Loading Interface Focus Industry Standard Company Standard Customer Required Mechanism Input Language Ontology Meta Data Meta Data Output Language Ontology Meta Data Meta Data XML: - general-purpose specification for creating custom markup languages. Control Service Benchmarks Company SLAs Customer SLAs ebXML: Standard Operating - a family of XML standards Mechanism Practice Best Practices Customer Functions Procedure - enable the global use of electronic business information - interoperable, secure, and consistent manner by all trading partners. Overlay Sequence XML schema: - an XML document type description 1. Achieve 2. Create 3. Comply with - expressed in terms of constraints of structure and content Parity with Competitive Contract Terms - above & beyond syntax constraints imposed by XML itself. Industry Advantage and Conditions ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 34
    35. Business Replicas XML Contracts Company SOP Resinas, M., et. al. (2006). “Towards Automated Service Trading,” in proc. ICE-B’06. Sponziello, A. (2007). “Design Strategies for Web Based ITS Applications,” in proc. ICE-B’07. Marca, D. (2008). “e-Business Innovation,” in proc. ICE-B’08. Electronic Trading Protocol Interface Scope Contents How Implemented Input What Data Definitions XML, XML Schema Control Output What Data Definitions XML, XML Schema Control When Events, Triggers, Coordination XML, XML Schema, ebXML Input e-Business Output Mechanism How Algorithms, Standards, Regulations ebXML Function Dynamic Class Loading Interface Focus Industry Standard Company Standard Customer Required Mechanism Input Language Ontology Meta Data Meta Data Output Language Ontology Meta Data Meta Data XML: - general-purpose specification for creating custom markup languages. Control Service Benchmarks Company SLAs Customer SLAs ebXML: Standard Operating - a family of XML standards Mechanism Practice Best Practices Customer Functions Procedure - enable the global use of electronic business information - interoperable, secure, and consistent manner by all trading partners. Overlay Sequence XML schema: - an XML document type description 1. Achieve 2. Create 3. Comply with - expressed in terms of constraints of structure and content Parity with Competitive Contract Terms - above & beyond syntax constraints imposed by XML itself. Industry Advantage and Conditions ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 35
    36. Business Replicas XML Contracts Customer Required Resinas, M., et. al. (2006). “Towards Automated Service Trading,” in proc. ICE-B’06. Sponziello, A. (2007). “Design Strategies for Web Based ITS Applications,” in proc. ICE-B’07. Marca, D. (2008). “e-Business Innovation,” in proc. ICE-B’08. Electronic Trading Protocol Interface Scope Contents How Implemented Input What Data Definitions XML, XML Schema Control Output What Data Definitions XML, XML Schema Control When Events, Triggers, Coordination XML, XML Schema, ebXML Input e-Business Output Mechanism How Algorithms, Standards, Regulations ebXML Function Dynamic Class Loading Interface Focus Industry Standard Company Standard Customer Required Mechanism Input Language Ontology Meta Data Meta Data Output Language Ontology Meta Data Meta Data XML: - general-purpose specification for creating custom markup languages. Control Service Benchmarks Company SLAs Customer SLAs ebXML: Standard Operating - a family of XML standards Mechanism Practice Best Practices Customer Functions Procedure - enable the global use of electronic business information - interoperable, secure, and consistent manner by all trading partners. Overlay Sequence XML schema: - an XML document type description 1. Achieve 2. Create 3. Comply with - expressed in terms of constraints of structure and content Parity with Competitive Contract Terms - above & beyond syntax constraints imposed by XML itself. Industry Advantage and Conditions ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 36
    37. Part 4 e-Business Innovation Surviving the Coming Decades Access the Electronic Long Tail Commerce Premium Electronic If markets change… at Discount Bargaining Mass Market Long Tail Market Business Dynamic Load, Replicas Trade Protocol Then If products change… Profitable Adaptive Operations Web Services Standard Value Then e-Business needs… Customer-Based Design Authentic Interactions Business Replicas Profitable Operations ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 37
    38. Full Service Response Standardize Otto, S., Kirn, S. (2006). “Adaption in Distributed Systems,” in proc. GECCO/’06. Buy-Specific Front-End Supply-Specific Back-End Buyer Provider Supplier Commodity Order Service Service Respond Service Pay ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 38
    39. Standard, Optimized Operations Standardize + Simplify Optimize Palmer, J., et. al. (2007). “Optimizing Revenue,” in proc. ICE-B’07. Buy-Specific Front-End Supply-Specific Back-End Buyer Provider Supplier Commodity Fulfill Order Source Service Service Deliver Respond Service Satisfy Charge Pay Bill ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 39
    40. Highly Available Business Modules Standardize Profit Tenenbaum, T., Khare, R. (2005). "Business Services Networks: Delivering the Promises of B2B," in proc. IEEE BSN'05, March.. .. ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 40
    41. Part 5 e-Business Innovation Surviving the Coming Decades Access the Electronic Long Tail Commerce Premium Electronic If technology changes… at Discount Bargaining Manufacturing Internet Business Dynamic Load, Replicas Trade Protocol Manufacturing Profitable Adaptive Transportation Operations Web Services Computers Redesigned Layered Distribution Technologies Internet ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 41
    42. Technology Cluster #1 Manufacturing Marca, D. (2008). “e-Business Innovation,” in proc. ICE-B’08. 100% 180k mi. Adoption S-Curves: 1 R 2 3 1. Steel 80% 2. Electricity 140k mi. 3. Motors R. Railroads (track miles) 60% 120k mi. 40% 80k mi. 20% 40k mi. 0% 0k mi. 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 42
    43. Technology Cluster #2 Transportation & Communication Marca, D. (2008). “e-Business Innovation,” in proc. ICE-B’08. 100% 50k mi. Adoption S-Curves: 4 5 6 7 H 4. Telephone 80% 5. Automobile 40k mi. 6. Radio 7. Television H. Highways (road miles) 60% 30k mi. 40% 20k mi. 20% 10k mi. 0% 0k mi. 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 43
    44. Technology Cluster #3 Computers, Storage, Network Marca, D. (2008). “e-Business Innovation,” in proc. ICE-B’08. 100% 100 GB Adoption S-Curves: 8. Mainframe computer 8 9 10 S 80% 9. Minicomputer 10 GB 10. Personal computer S. Storage (GB) 60% 1 GB 40% 0.1 GB 20% 0.01 GB 0% 0 GB 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 44
    45. Technology Cluster #4 Internet, Wireless, Broadband Marca, D. (2008). “e-Business Innovation,” in proc. ICE-B’08. 100% 10 Tb/s. Adoption S-Curves: 11. Internet N 11 12 13 80% 12. Wireless 10 Gb/s. 13. Broadband N. Network (bits/sec) 60% 10 Mb/s. 40% 10 Kb/s. 20% 10 b/s. 0% 0 b/s. 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 45
    46. AMAZON Original Reid, D., Sanders, N. (2007). Operations Management. John Wiley & Sons. Stage 1: Traditional “Push” Inventory Model: Get books to the stores based on a forecast. Profitable: Sell only those books that can be sold in stores. Buyer Store Ingram Publishers Authors ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 46
    47. AMAZON Original Disintermediation Reid, D., Sanders, N. (2007). Operations Management. John Wiley & Sons. Stage 1: Traditional “Push” Inventory Model: Get books to the stores based on a forecast. Profitable: Sell only those books that can be sold in stores. Buyer Store Ingram Publishers Authors Stage 2: Simple “Pull” Inventory Model: Get books to the buyer based on the actual sale. Not Profitable: Ingram took a large percentage of the transaction. Buyer Amazon Ingram Publishers Authors ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 47
    48. AMAZON Original Disintermediation Reintermediation U.S. Department of Transportation. (2000). “Business Logistics: From Push to Pull,” http://ops.fhwa.dot.gov/freight/theme_papers/final_thm3_v3.htm. Stage 1: Traditional “Push” Inventory Model: Get books to the stores based on a forecast. Profitable: Sell only those books that can be sold in stores. Buyer Store Ingram Publishers Authors Stage 2: Simple “Pull” Inventory Model: Get books to the buyer based on the actual sale. Not Profitable: Ingram took a large percentage of the transaction. Buyer Amazon Ingram Publishers Authors Stage 3: Blended “Push-Pull” Inventory Model: Get items to the buyer based on the actual sale. Profitable: Create warehouses: volume business, accurate forecasts, avoid inventory outages. Warehouse Buyer Amazon Ingram Publishers Authors ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 48
    49. Part 6 e-Business Innovation Surviving the Coming Decades Access the Electronic Long Tail Commerce Premium Electronic If technology changes… at Discount Bargaining Manufacturing Internet Business Dynamic Load, Replicas Trade Protocol Then If business changes… Profitable Adaptive Operations Web Services Company Brand Individual Brand Redesigned Layered Distribution Technologies Company Brand Individual Broadband Trade-Up Brands Branding + Video Personalized with Brand Individual Branding ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 49
    50. Business Innovation #1 Company Brand Marca, D. (2008). “e-Business Innovation,” in proc. ICE-B’08. 100% 180k mi. Adoption S-Curves: 1 R 2 3 1. Steel 80% 2. Electricity 140k mi. 3. Motors R. Railroads (track miles) 60% 120k mi. 40% 80k mi. 20% 40k mi. 0% 0k mi. 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 Produce to Affordability Factory Work Standard Products One Company Working Class Centralized Control Urban Life ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 50
    51. Business Innovation #2 Trade-Up Brands Marca, D. (2008). “e-Business Innovation,” in proc. ICE-B’08. 100% 50k mi. Adoption S-Curves: 4 5 6 7 H 4. Telephone 80% 5. Automobile 40k mi. 6. Radio 7. Television H. Highways (road miles) 60% 30k mi. 40% 20k mi. 20% 10k mi. 0% 0k mi. 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 Produce to Brand Factory Work Office Work Standard Products Discount Products Many Departments Working Class Middle Class Functional Control Urban Life Suburban Life ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 51
    52. Business Innovation #3 Personalized within Brand Marca, D. (2008). “e-Business Innovation,” in proc. ICE-B’08. 100% 100 GB Adoption S-Curves: 8. Mainframe computer 8 9 10 S 80% 9. Minicomputer 10 GB 10. Personal computer S. Storage (GB) N. Network (see next slide) 60% 1 GB 40% 0.1 GB 20% 0.01 GB 0% 0 GB 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 Produce to Preference Factory Work Office Work Remote Work Standard Products Discount Products Personalized Prod Outsourced Depts Working Class Middle Class Affluent Class Shared Control Urban Life Suburban Life Exurban Life ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 52
    53. Business Innovation #4 Individual Branding Marca, D. (2008). “e-Business Innovation,” in proc. ICE-B’08. 100% 10 Tb/s. Adoption S-Curves: 11. Internet N 11 12 13 80% 12. Wireless 10 Gb/s. 13. Broadband N. Network (bits/sec) 60% 10 Mb/s. 40% 10 Kb/s. 20% 10 b/s. 0% 0 b/s. 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 Produce to Value Factory Work Office Work Remote Work Global Work Standard Products Discount Products Personalized Prod Value Products Business Replicas Working Class Middle Class Affluent Class Austere Class Decentralized Control Urban Life Suburban Life Exurban Life Quality Towns ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 53
    54. EXPRESSUME Branding Competency through Video -- Private Bonk, et. all. (2008). www.expressume.com. Private ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 54
    55. EXPRESSUME Branding Competency through Video -- References Bonk, et. all. (2008). www.expressume.com. Private References ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 55
    56. EXPRESSUME Branding Competency through Video -- Public Bonk, et. all. (2008). www.expressume.com. Public Private References ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 56
    57. EXPRESSUME Branding Competency through Video -- Sharing Bonk, et. all. (2008). www.expressume.com. Sharing Public Private References ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 57
    58. Part 7 e-Business Innovation Surviving the Coming Decades Access the Electronic Long Tail Commerce Premium Electronic If technology changes… at Discount Bargaining Manufacturing Internet Business Dynamic Load, Replicas Trade Protocol Then If business changes… Profitable Adaptive Operations Web Services Company Brand Individual Brand Redesigned Layered Distribution Technologies Then e-Business needs… Individual Broadband Produce to Demand Branding + Video Internet Sourcing Instant, Virtual World-Wide Companies Platforms Data Privacy + Security Real-Time Decision-Making ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 58
    59. Architecture Transaction-Based Design Marca, D. (2008). “e-Business Innovation,” in proc. ICE-B’08. Buy-Specific Front-End Supply-Specific Back-End Buyer Provider Supplier Commodity ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 59
    60. Produce to Demand Shared Electronic Organization Marca, D. (2008). “e-Business Innovation,” in proc. ICE-B’08. Buy-Specific Front-End Supply-Specific Back-End Buyer Provider Supplier Commodity OLTP OLTP Structure ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 60
    61. Produce to Demand Instant Order Flow Down Marca, D. (2008). “e-Business Innovation,” in proc. ICE-B’08. Buy-Specific Front-End Supply-Specific Back-End Buyer Provider Supplier Commodity OLTP OLTP OLTP Order Order Order Structure ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 61
    62. Virtual Value Added Network Different Applications Domke, F. (2008). “The Virtual VAN.” http://businessintegrationtechnology.com/ Company 1 Company 2 ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 62
    63. Virtual Value Added Network Local Trading Server Domke, F. (2008). “The Virtual VAN.” http://businessintegrationtechnology.com/ Company 1 Company 2 Trading Server Trading Server ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 63
    64. Virtual Value Added Network All Within Firewall Domke, F. (2008). “The Virtual VAN.” http://businessintegrationtechnology.com/ Company 1 Company 2 Trading Server Trading Server Trader’s Firewall Trader’s Firewall ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 64
    65. Virtual Value Added Network Internet Message Transport Domke, F. (2008). “The Virtual VAN.” http://businessintegrationtechnology.com/ Company 1 Company 2 Trading Server Trading Server Trader’s Firewall Trader’s Firewall Internet Internet ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 65
    66. Virtual Value Added Network Amazon Scale + Reliability Domke, F. (2008). “The Virtual VAN.” http://businessintegrationtechnology.com/ Company 1 Company 2 Trading Server Trading Server Trader’s Firewall Trader’s Firewall Internet Internet Amazon Firewall Amazon Simple Queue Service (SQS) Amazon Simple Storage System (S3) ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 66
    67. Internet Sourcing One Order One Strategy Marca, D. (2008). “e-Business Innovation,” in proc. ICE-B’08. Buy-Specific Front-End Supply-Specific Back-End Buyer Provider Supplier Commodity OLTP OLTP OLTP Order Order Order Structure Sourcing ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 67
    68. Internet Sourcing Use Strategy to “Mine” Marca, D. (2008). “e-Business Innovation,” in proc. ICE-B’08. Buy-Specific Front-End Supply-Specific Back-End Buyer Provider Supplier Commodity OLTP OLTP OLTP Internet Job Order Order Order Boards Search Structure Sourcing Engines Blogs + Wikis Social Networks Digital Communities Niche Web Sites ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 68
    69. Separate Sourcing from Procurement Match #1 – Sources TalentDrive. (2008). “How Our Technology Works.” http://www.talentdrive.com/talent_source/proprietary_technology University Boards Niche Blogs Sites Career Mine User Sites Groups Job ATS Boards Social Networks Source Provider’s Responsibility ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 69
    70. Separate Sourcing from Procurement Match #2 – Machine TalentDrive. (2008). “How Our Technology Works.” http://www.talentdrive.com/talent_source/proprietary_technology University Boards Niche Blogs Sites Career Mine User Select Sites Groups Job ATS Boards Social Networks Source Match Provider’s Responsibility ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 70
    71. Separate Sourcing from Procurement Match #3 – Human TalentDrive. (2008). “How Our Technology Works.” http://www.talentdrive.com/talent_source/proprietary_technology University Boards Niche Blogs Sites Career Mine User Select Sites Groups Job ATS Boards Social Networks Interview Source Match Provider’s Responsibility ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 71
    72. Separate Sourcing from Procurement Assessment #1 – Provider TalentDrive. (2008). “How Our Technology Works.” http://www.talentdrive.com/talent_source/proprietary_technology University Boards Niche Blogs Sites Career Mine User Select Sites Groups Job ATS Boards Social Networks Interview Rate Source Match Assess Provider’s Responsibility ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 72
    73. Separate Sourcing from Procurement Assessment #2 – HR TalentDrive. (2008). “How Our Technology Works.” http://www.talentdrive.com/talent_source/proprietary_technology University Boards Niche Blogs Sites Career Mine User Select Review Sites Groups Job ATS Boards Social Networks Interview Rate Source Match Assess Provider’s Responsibility Buyer’s Responsibility ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 73
    74. Separate Sourcing from Procurement Assessment #3 – Buyer TalentDrive. (2008). “How Our Technology Works.” http://www.talentdrive.com/talent_source/proprietary_technology University Boards Niche Blogs Sites Career Mine User Select Review Interview Sites Groups Job ATS Boards Social Networks Interview Rate Select Source Match Assess Procure Provider’s Responsibility Buyer’s Responsibility ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 74
    75. Part 8 e-Business Innovation Surviving the Coming Decades Access the Electronic Long Tail Commerce Premium Electronic If technology changes… at Discount Bargaining Manufacturing Internet Business Dynamic Load, Replicas Trade Protocol Then If business changes… Profitable Adaptive Operations Web Services Company Brand Individual Brand Redesigned Layered Distribution Technologies Then e-Business needs… Individual Broadband Produce to Demand Branding + Video Internet Sourcing Instant, Virtual World-Wide Companies Platforms Data Privacy + Security Real-Time Decision-Making Real-Time Business Decisions Intelligence ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 75
    76. Internet Sourcing Fulfillment Marca, D. (2008). “e-Business Innovation,” in proc. ICE-B’08. Buy-Specific Front-End Supply-Specific Back-End Buyer Provider Supplier Commodity OLTP OLTP OLTP Internet Job Order Order Order Boards Search Structure Service Sourcing Engines Blogs + Wikis Social Networks Digital Communities Niche Web Sites ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 76
    77. Data Privacy + Security Transaction Data Marca, D. (2008). “e-Business Innovation,” in proc. ICE-B’08. Buy-Specific Front-End Supply-Specific Back-End Buyer Provider Supplier Commodity OLTP OLTP OLTP Internet Job Order Order Order Boards Search Structure Service Sourcing Engines Payment Billing Charges Blogs + Wikis Social Networks Digital Communities Niche Web Sites ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 77
    78. Data Privacy + Security Progress Data Marca, D. (2008). “e-Business Innovation,” in proc. ICE-B’08. Buy-Specific Front-End Supply-Specific Back-End Buyer Provider Supplier Commodity OLTP OLTP OLTP Internet Job Order Order Order Boards Search Structure Service Sourcing Engines Payment Billing Charges Blogs + Wikis Social OLAP Networks Digital Objectives Communities Niche Run Charts Web Sites ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 78
    79. Data Privacy + Security Prediction Data Marca, D. (2008). “e-Business Innovation,” in proc. ICE-B’08. Buy-Specific Front-End Supply-Specific Back-End Buyer Provider Supplier Commodity OLTP OLTP OLTP Internet Job Order Order Order Boards Search Structure Service Sourcing Engines Payment Billing Charges Blogs + Wikis Social OLAP OLAP Networks Digital Objectives Benchmarks Communities Niche Run Charts Trends Web Sites ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 79
    80. Data Privacy + Security Performance Data Marca, D. (2008). “e-Business Innovation,” in proc. ICE-B’08. Buy-Specific Front-End Supply-Specific Back-End Buyer Provider Supplier Commodity OLTP OLTP OLTP Internet Job Order Order Order Boards Search Structure Service Sourcing Engines Payment Billing Charges Blogs + Wikis Social OLAP OLAP OLAP Networks Digital Objectives Benchmarks Metrics Communities Niche Run Charts Trends Dashboards Web Sites ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 80
    81. Business Intelligence Decision-Making (event-response) Michalewicz, et. al. (1998). Adaptive Business Intelligence. Springer-Verlag. Detect Capture Prepare Business Event Analyze Decide Respond ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 81
    82. Business Intelligence Sequential Steps Value Impact Melchert et al. (2004) "Aligning BPA and BI to support CPM," proc. 10th conf. info. sys. August. VALUE TIME Detect Capture Prepare Business Event Analyze Decide Respond ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 82
    83. Business Intelligence Data Warehouse Less Impact Melchert et al. (2004) "Aligning BPA and BI to support CPM," proc. 10th conf. info. sys. August. VALUE Dashboard TIME Detect Capture Prepare Data Business Warehouse Event with Analyze Metadata Decide Respond ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 83
    84. Business Intelligence Real-Time Much Less Impact Nguyen, et. al. (2005). “Sense & Response Service Architecture,” DOLAP’05, November. VALUE Dashboard TIME Detect Capture Prepare Data Event Real Business Warehouse Service Time Event with Bus Analyze Cache Metadata Decide Respond ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 84
    85. Recap e-Business Innovation Surviving the Coming Decades ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 85
    86. Recap e-Business Innovation Surviving the Coming Decades Electronic Commerce “The Long Tail Market” access ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 86
    87. Recap e-Business Innovation Surviving the Coming Decades Electronic Commerce “The Long Tail Market” access Austere mass market Electronic bargaining agents ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 87
    88. Recap e-Business Innovation Surviving the Coming Decades Electronic Commerce “The Long Tail Market” access Austere mass market Electronic bargaining agents Dynamic small markets e-Business replicas ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 88
    89. Recap e-Business Innovation Surviving the Coming Decades Electronic Commerce “The Long Tail Market” access Austere mass market Electronic bargaining agents Dynamic small markets e-Business replicas Dynamic small markets Standard, optimal operations ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 89
    90. Recap e-Business Innovation Surviving the Coming Decades Electronic Commerce “The Long Tail Market” access Austere mass market Electronic bargaining agents Dynamic small markets e-Business replicas Dynamic small markets Standard, optimal operations Layered technologies Redesigned distribution ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 90
    91. Recap e-Business Innovation Surviving the Coming Decades Electronic Commerce “The Long Tail Market” access Austere mass market Electronic bargaining agents Dynamic small markets e-Business replicas Dynamic small markets Standard, optimal operations Layered technologies Redesigned distribution Broadband + video Individual branding ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 91
    92. Recap e-Business Innovation Surviving the Coming Decades Electronic Commerce “The Long Tail Market” access Austere mass market Electronic bargaining agents Dynamic small markets e-Business replicas Dynamic small markets Standard, optimal operations Layered technologies Redesigned distribution Broadband + video Individual branding e-Business platforms Virtual companies ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 92
    93. Recap e-Business Innovation Surviving the Coming Decades Electronic Commerce “The Long Tail Market” access Austere mass market Electronic bargaining agents Dynamic small markets e-Business replicas Dynamic small markets Standard, optimal operations Layered technologies Redesigned distribution Broadband + video Individual branding e-Business platforms Virtual companies Business intelligence Real-time decision making ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 93
    94. e-Business Innovation Surviving the Coming Decades David A. Marca Thank University of Phoenix One Research Drive you Westborough, MA 01581 U.S.A. dmarca@email.phoenix.edu July 26, 2008 ©OpenProcess, Inc. Do not copy. Do not distribute. e-Business Innovation, 94
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