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Mega trends
Mega trends
Mega trends
Mega trends
Mega trends
Mega trends
Mega trends
Mega trends
Mega trends
Mega trends
Mega trends
Mega trends
Mega trends
Mega trends
Mega trends
Mega trends
Mega trends
Mega trends
Mega trends
Mega trends
Mega trends
Mega trends
Mega trends
Mega trends
Mega trends
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Mega trends

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Global Mega Trends and Their Impact

Global Mega Trends and Their Impact

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  • 1. Global Mega Trends and Their Impact on Business, Cultures and Society Presented by Manoj Menon Partner / Managing Director Asia Pacific 1
  • 2. 2
  • 3. 3
  • 4. #1 Urbanization 4
  • 5. Three Main Trends in Urbanization: Development of Mega Cities,Mega Regions and Mega Corridors MEGA MEGA CITY MEGA REGIONS CORRIDORS City With A Minimum Cities Combining With The Corridors Population Of 5 Million Suburbs To Form Connecting Two Major Regions. (Population Cities or Mega Regions EXAMPLE: Greater over 10 Million) London EXAMPLE: Hong Kong- EXAMPLE: Shenzhen-Guangzhou Johannesburg and in China (Population Pretoria (forming “Jo- 120 Million) Toria”) 5
  • 6. Smart Cities – “Green” Replaced by “SMART” Concepts Smart Cities Energy, City Planning and ICT to define the future of Mobility Smart Diamond to define Smart city ‘S” Governance ‘S’ Citizen ‘S’ Business ‘S’ CityPlanning ‘S’ Buildings Source: Frost & Sullivan These 3 elements Will define the ‘Smart’ ‘S’ Mobility Mobility of the future ‘S’ Energy ‘S’ ICT‘S’ Energy Renewable energy, Smart Grid Infrastructure‘S‘ City Planning EV Charging, Smart Grid, Bus Rapid Transit, Parking Infrastructure, Congestion Charging‘S’ Information Communication & Technology Telematics, Navigation, Smart Metering, Internet Technologies Legend: City’s Infrastructure City’s User community City’s Green Ecology 6
  • 7. Over 40 Global Cities to be SMART Cities in 2020 Amsterdam London Boulder Tianjin GIFT San Francisco Göteborg Stockholm Reykjavik Oslo Hammarby Sjöstad Songdo Montreal Clonburris Copenhagen Vancouver St Davids Seattle Toronto Freiburg Portland Paris Dongtan Treasure Island Barcelona Changsha Destiny Coyote Springs Meixi Lake Khajuraho Arcosanti Babcock Ranch Pune Singapore City Bogota Kochi Waitakere, N.Z. Curitiba Cape Town Moreland, Australia Masdar Cities built from scratch Existing eco cities Existing eco megacities 7
  • 8. “Smart” Market Opportunity : Convergence of Technology Will Lead to Convergence of Competition Energy/Infrastructure Players • T&D Technology • Power Electronics • Renewable Energy • Integrated Distribution Management • Substation Automation • AMI-Enabled Metering • Etc.• IP Networks• Digital Technology• Analysis Software • Building Automation• Wireless Communication • Demand-Side Management• Technology Integration • Connectivity of devices• Network Security • Monitoring and Sensing• Etc. • Smart Grid Integration • Etc. IT Players Automation/Building Control Players Source: Frost & Sullivan. 8
  • 9. #2 E-Mobility 9
  • 10. E-Mobility : Over 40 Million Electric 2 Wheelers and 4 Wheelers will beSold Annually Around the Globe in 2020 Total 30 million – 2 Wheelers Total 10 Million – 4 Wheelers (2020) (2020) Sanyo Enacle XM 3000 Electric Moped The GEM Peapod The Smith Newton 10
  • 11. Electric Vehicle Market Eco-System Provides Opportunity to EnterNew Fields Cooperation to simultaneously promote EV use and electricity as a fuel Integrators to create partnerships with Utilities, OEMs and Government Integrator Utilities OEMs (e.g Better Place) Key KeyResponsibility: Responsibility:Development of Promotion of EV Charging Supplies use Infrastructure Development of infrastructure to performing distribute their batteries energy Infrastructure Charging supplier System/Battery Station Government Manufacturers Manufacturers 11
  • 12. Example of Products/Services Portfolio That Can be Offered by an Integrator in the E-Mobility Market Telematics & Charging Batteries E-Mobility Vehicles Electricity other value Stations Services added services • Manufacturing & • Battery Leasing • Energy • Subscription • Data Aggregator ( Sales Model Subscription based Energy working with other Packages service Scheme partners) • Installation & • Refurbishing Maintenance • Extended E- • Battery mobility solutionPossible Revenue • Recycling • Load Management management • Charge Payment e.g. vehicle sharing services Program / Subscription based • Battery 2nd life Streams services • investment in • Advanced booking • Offering After- renewable energy of charging stations • Battery Sales services – • Revenues from such as wind farms Swapping and gain carbon value added services credits • V2V and V2G • Extend to other • Market green Communication E-mobility solutions such as • Premium revenues • Premium revenues solutions Solar panels to E- via Renewable via Peak Power Vs Mobility client base Off Peak Charging • Added value Energy Vs Non service (POIs, Renewable Energy • Premium revenues Diagnostics, etc) • Premium revenues • Battery via Renewable Integration • Recycling and via Peak Power Vs Energy Vs Non Refurbishing Off Peak Charging Renewable Energy • Level 1 Vs Level 2 Vs Level 3 Charging Source: Frost & Sullivan 12
  • 13. #3 Social Trends 13
  • 14. World Population in 2020: Out of 2.56 Billion Gen Y Population - Around 61% from Asia Alone 2010 2 World Population: Breakdown by Region (Global), 2020 2020 1.8 Around 37% of Gen Y 7.55 Billion Population Will Live in India 1.6 and China Alone 1.2 6.83 Billion 0.47 1.4 0.16 Population in Billion 0.09 1.2 2.1 0.19 0.07 1 0.47 0.57 0.33 0.8 0.63 0.22 2.56 0.12 0.6 0.37 0.44 0.23 0.21 0.51 0.4 0.07 0.13 0.26 0.22 0.2 0.44 0.36 0.33 1.69 0.11 0.22 0.14 0.07 0.13 0 Africa Rest of Asia Latin America, North America Europe India China Caribbean and Oceania 65 Years and Above 35-64 15-34 0-14Note: Gen Y : Population between 15 – 34 Source: US Census Bureau, 2010 and Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United NationsYears 14
  • 15. 15
  • 16. Social Networking – most popular activity online 16
  • 17. Generation Y: Goods and Services Catered to Values, Beliefs, Interestand Lifestyle Personalization Techno Savvy Civic and Demanding and and and Connected Environmentally Impatient – “Fast Individualization 24 X 7 Friendly and the Furious” Gaming Gizmos Personalized Search and Instant Text Messaging Eco- Transport News Smart Phones Social Networking Profiles Bag-For-Life (Paper Bags Instead of Plastic) Instant Chat Facebook-on-the Move Personalized Products Paperless Banking Speed Oriented Gaming (Car Racing) Microblogs 17
  • 18. #4 Technology 18
  • 19. Cloud ComputingA pool of compute, memory and i/o resources, applications or operating environments with seemingly infinite scalability, delivered as a service over a network, be it private or public Characteristics Service Types Deployment Models On Demand, Self- PUBLIC Service Public Enterprise Cloud Software as a Service Pay As You Use, PRIVATE Metered Consumption Private Enterprise Cloud Rapid Elasticity, COMMUNITY Scale Up/Down Platform as a Service Enterprise Enterprise 1 2 Community Shared Pools, Cloud Illusion of Infinite Enterprise Resources 3 HYBRID Broad Network Infrastructure as a Service Private Public Access using Enterprise Cloud Cloud Standard Internet Protocols 19
  • 20. New Satellites Launched By 2020: Over 900 Satellites to Be Launched Globally This Decade Creating Multiple Innovative Applications By 2020, there will be approximately927 Satellites (Communication – 405; GNSS Enabled Applications:Earth Observation – 151; Navigation •Navigation (Civil, Military)– 85; Reconnaissance – 212 and R&D 75) •Broadband Internet and Wireless Network •GNSS based medical monitoring and drug delivery system •Automated guidance of machines, real-time structure monitoring, logistics and site management Galileo - intended to Commercial market will provide more precise be driven bymeasurements than GPS broadcast; Mobile or GLONASS Satellite Services China developing (MSS); voice and data Beidou applications, bundling IPTV Used for Military Communication Applications, air- traffic control, Automobile Navigation and Intelligent automated aircraft Traffic Control System Applications landing, etc 20
  • 21. World War 3: With Advancement in Technology, Information Warfareto be the Next Domain of Conflict Space Photographic Satellites, GPS, Communications, Ballistic Missile Defence, Signals, Astronauts Air ISR Platforms, Combat Aircraft, Transport, Helicopters, Maritime Surveillance, Communications, Airmen Naval Land Combat Platforms, Combat Vehicles, Transport, Communications, ISR, Transport, Communications, Soldiers Sailors Information Environment Physical, Cognitive, Informational Dimensions 21
  • 22. #5 Innovating to Zero! 22
  • 23. “Innovating To ZERO” 23
  • 24. #6 Infrastructure Development 24
  • 25. Global High Speed Rail: Existing, Under Construction and Planned 50,148 km 25000 14,213 km By 2020, 20000 construction of South America more than 35,000 Middle East 15000 9524 3979 km of new track & Africa has been estimated North Asia America 6326Pacific 10000 4015 Asia Pacific 5000 Europe 6515 7698 2417 4084Europe 5494 2200 1310 0 2010 Europe Asia Pacific North America Middle East & Africa South America 2020 In Operation Under Construction Planned Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010. Source: Frost & Sullivan • More than 60 per cent of new High Speed development is likely to take place in Europe and Asia. • Though North America has a vision to build more than 27,000 km of High Speed Rail network, only about 5,500 km of network will be true High Speed (more than 250 kmph) by 2020. DRAFT VERSION 25
  • 26. #7 Healthcare 26
  • 27. If Current Trends Hold, By 2050 Health Care Spending Will Almost DoubleClaiming 20% – 30% Of GDP For Some Economies Private Per Capita Spending (2007) Public Per Capita Spending (2007)$7,000 Spending as % of GDP (2007) Estimated Spending as % of GDP in 2050 30.0%$6,000 Unsustainable Levels!!! 25.0%$5,000 $3,517 20.0%$4,000 $717 $1,684 15.0%$3,000 $854 $680 $914 $989 $760 $494 $1,018 $449 $1,165 $352 $593 $431 10.0%$2,000 $514 $3,647 $646 $2,884 $2,693 $2,493 $2,665 $2,451 $2,527 $2,614 $2,469 $2,337 $2,371 5.0%$1,000 $2,110 $1,927 $1,938 $1,927 $1,829 $1,609 $0 0.0% In almost all countries worldwide, per capita healthcare spending is rising faster than per capita income. No country can spend an ever-rising share of its output on health care, indefinitely. Spending growth must eventually fall in line with growth in per capita income. 27
  • 28. Health Economics Dictate a Shift in Spending – Away From Treating andTowards Predicting, Diagnosing and Monitoring Healthcare Spending by Type of Activity 100% Monitor, 10% Monitor, 12% 90% Monitor, 16% 80% 70% Treat, 35% 60% Treat, 60% Treat, 70% 50% 40% Diagnose, 27% 30% 20% Diagnose, 19% Diagnose, 15% Predict, 22% 10% Predict, 5% Predict, 9% 0% 2007 2012 2025 28
  • 29. #8 Connected Devices : 80 bn + by 2020 The Home Network Mobility on steroids Internet of things ‘S’ Citizen ‘S’ Business ‘S’ City Planning ‘S’ Buildings ‘S’ Mobility ‘S’ Energy • 8-10 Devices per home • 5-6 Devices per individual • 500 per sq km • Universal Remote • Touch as the default input • Smart cities mechanism 6 bn 30 bn 44 bn 29
  • 30. #9 New Business Models 1. Pay as you go – Utilitarian, On Demand 2. Co-creation of value; 3. N=1, R=G 30
  • 31. #10 Span of Influence increasing rapidly Time to reach an audience of 50 million Radio : 38 years TV : 13 years Internet : 4 years iPod : 3 years Facebook: 2 years 500 Million+ Facebook users 2 Billion+ photos on Facebook per month 1 Billion+ tweets on Twitter 100 Million+ videos on Youtube 200 Million+ blogs 13 Million+ Wikipedia articles 31
  • 32. Lin Yu Chun 32
  • 33. #11 Innovative Technologies of the Future 33
  • 34. Key Strategic Conclusions 34
  • 35. Key Strategic Conclusions1. Mega trends are connected and inter-wined which suggests “synergetic” opportunities between them2. It is important to understand the eco-system of the mega-trend and the elements of the value chain which have most profitability3. All these trends are global and have global ramifications thereby offering scalable opportunities4. These forces are changing rapidly and bringing new competencies into play at half the life-cycle speed of the past decade5. Organisations’ need “Mega Trend” champions and teams within their organisation structure to best exploit the opportunity 35
  • 36. How To Take Mega Trends from Information to StrategyImplementation? S1 Identify and Select Top Mega Trends through Macro-Economic Analysis, Interviewing and Brainstorming Sessions S2 Build Scenario of these Unique Mega Trends S3 Analyse the Impact of the Scenario Developed in Step 2 on Industry (e.g. Personal Mobility then Automotive) S4 Analyse Impact on Product and Technology Planning and Generate Suggestions for Design and Development 36

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