TO DOWNLOAD THE
PRESENTATION - GO TO
THEBRANDBUBBLE.COM/BLOG

FOLLOW JOHN ON TWITTER:
@JOHNGERZEMA
CALAMITY:
    MARKETING YOUR WAY
    OUT OF THIS RECESSION




    Source: Conde Naste Portfolio, January 2009   Copyright...
RESULTS 1–10 OF ABOUT
    22,200,000 FOR RECESSION
    AND MARKETING




                               Copyright John Ger...
FUNDAMENTAL SOCIETAL
    SHIFT
    FROM A CREDIT TO A CONFIDENCE CRISIS

    SEA CHANGES IN CONSUMER BEHAVIORS

    COMPAN...
MANAGING FOR AN UPTURN




SUSTAINABLE GROWTH
ALIGN BRAND AND BUSINESS
STRATEGY
ACQUIRE TALENT AND QUALITY
DO MORE WITH LE...
HALF OF ALL GLOBAL WEALTH
HAS EVAPORATED




$36 TRILLION DOLLAR LOSS WORLDWIDE
S&P 500 DECLINED 64.4% FROM 2000
45% OF AM...
THE NEW FEAR ECONOMY


                                              NATIONAL DEBT
    UNEMPLOYMENT
                      ...
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE:
    LOWEST SINCE 1967 (INCEPTION)
EXCLUDING 2003 / IRAQ WAR PERIOD




     Source: ABC News
8
THE LARGEST U.S. BUDGET DEFICIT
POST WWII




9   Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System   Copyright Joh...
VISUALIZING THE BAILOUT




10   Source: The Atlantic   Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
FRACTURED FAITH IN
THE AMERICAN DREAM




11
     11
HOUSING VALUES CONTINUE TO
 DECLINE ACROSS THE U.S.




     Source: “Irrational Exuberance”, 2nd edition, 2006, by Robert...
AMERICAN’S HOMES NO LONGER
 PERSONAL LINES OF CREDIT




13                                                     Copyright ...
WHILE THE CREDIT CRISIS HAS
 HALTED HOUSING STARTS




14   Source: www.calculatedriskblog.com   Copyright John Gerzema/Yo...
INTO THE GREAT WIDE OPEN




 UNEMPLOYMENT 8.1%; HIGHEST IN
 TWENTY-FIVE YEARS
 THIRD STRAIGHT MONTH OF 600,000
 JOBS LOST...
THIS PERIOD MARKED BY MOST JOB
 LOSSES, WEAKEST RECOVERY




                                                             ...
AN EQUAL OPPORTUNITY
RECESSION




MILLIONAIRES HAVE LOST ONE-
THIRD OF THEIR NET WORTH.




  17                         ...
AFFLUENT MORTGAGE
 RATE DEFAULTS




18   Source: LPS Applied Analytics   Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
ONE STORY IN
THE AMERICAN NIGHTMARE




 20   Source:New York Times   Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
A GROWING REALITY:
     A MORTGAGE IS FOREVER




     19
     11                      Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubi...
MASLOW UPENDED:
 MARKETING MUST MOVE FROM PASSION TO COMPASSION




                                                    20...
YES WE CAN?




22   Source: Pew Research Center
THE ONLY CERTAINTY IS
 UNCERTAINTY




24                       Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
“WE HAVE A STRONG
CAPITAL POSITION”




 24
 23
TECTONIC SHIFTS IN CONSUMERISM:
                         LACK OF
         DECAYING                        LACK OF
        ...
LACK OF LEADERSHIP
AND RESPONSIBILITY




                     26
26
SELFISHNESS AND
COLLUSION




27                Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
PROLONGED CONFLICTS
AND PARTISANSHIP




28
EGREGIOUS AND CRIMINAL
BEHAVIOR




29                       Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
FAILURE OF REGULATORS




30                      Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
TAXPAYERS ARE NOW
     SHAREHOLDERS




31
     25                  Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
DECAYING INFRASTRUCTURE




32                        Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
LACK OF PERMANENCE




33                   Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
THE NEW CULTURAL
 FAULT LINE




34
     34
35
28   Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
WE EXAMINED 15 YEARS
OF DATA FROM BRANDASSET
VALUATOR®




                                  QUARTERLY U.S.
WORLD’S LARGES...
BRANDS NOW ACCOUNT
FOR 30% OF THE VALUE OF
THE S&P 500




      Source: Millward Brown Optimor 2007


 37
 30            ...
THE 250 MOST VALUABLE
GLOBAL BRANDS ARE
$2.197 TRILLION DOLLARS
WHICH EXCEEDS THE GDP
OF FRANCE




38
31                 ...
BRAND ESTEEM AND
     REGARD IS DOWN 12%

     BRAND AWARENESS HAS
     DECLINED BY 20%

     PERCEPTIONS OF BRAND
     QU...
TRUST IS DESIRABLE, BUT IT HASN’T
     DIFFERENTIATED




40   Source:BrandAsset Valuator 1993-2007   Copyright John Gerze...
IN THE PAST QUARTER, A ‘TRUST VIRUS’
     INFECTED MANY CATEGORIES




41   Base: BAV USA Q4 2007, Q4 2008; All Adults
   ...
“I SCREWED UP”
42   Source: Barack Obama Press Conference, February 2009   Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
CONSUMERS ARE BEGINNING
 TO OWN THEIR PROBLEMS




43   Source: Time Magazine   Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
THEY REALIZE THERE’S A LONG,
HARD SLOG AHEAD




44   Source: Reinhart and Rogoff, The Aftermath of Financial Crises, 2009
SAVINGS RATE HAS RISEN IN PAST FIVE
 CONSECUTIVE MONTHS




45   Source: U.S. Department of Commerce: Bureau of Economic A...
Q4 SPENDING FELL 3.7% FROM Q3 -
     STEEPEST DECLINE IN 62 YEARS.
     $3 TRILLION IN SPENDING STOPPED IN Q4, WAS SUSTAIN...
MOST POPULAR TAG’S ABOUT CONSUMER
BEHAVIOR




47   Source: Del.icio.us
EATE COMPETITIVE
VANTAGE NOW




           EVERY RECESSION ENDS...EVENTUALLY
           CONSUMERS MOVING FROM ANXIETY TO ...
THE NEW RULES OF
‘POST-CRISIS CONSUMERISM’



       NEW CULTURAL VALUES


      NEW CONSUMER BEHAVIORS


     NEW MANAGEM...
POST-CRISIS CONSUMERISM
     RULE #1


        CULTURAL VALUE       = INDESTRUCTIBLE
                                    S...
CULTURAL VALUE = INDESTRUCTIBLE SPIRIT
                     CONSUMER BEHAVIOR = DURABLE LIVING
                 MANAGEMENT...
CULTURAL VALUE = INDESTRUCTIBLE SPIRIT
                       CONSUMER BEHAVIOR = DURABLE LIVING
                   MANAGE...
POST-CRISIS CONSUMERISM
RULE #2


     CULTURAL VALUE   =     ETHICS AND
                          FAIR PLAY

CONSUMER STR...
CULTURAL VALUE = ETHICS AND FAIR PLAY
                             CONSUMER BEHAVIOR = R-E-S-P-E-C-T
                     ...
CULTURAL VALUE = ETHICS AND FAIR PLAY

                                CONSUMER BEHAVIOR = R-E-S-P-E-C-T

                ...
POST-CRISIS CONSUMERISM
     RULE #3


     CULTURAL VALUE   =    LIQUID LIFE


CONSUMER STRATEGY =          DÉCLASSÉ
    ...
CULTURAL VALUE=LIQUID LIFE
              CONSUMER BEHAVIOR = DÉCLASSÉ CONSUMPTION
                MANAGEMENT PRINCIPLE= DO...
CULTURAL VALUE=LIQUID LIFE
                    CONSUMER BEHAVIOR = DÉCLASSÉ CONSUMPTION
                      MANAGEMENT P...
POST-CRISIS CONSUMERISM
     RULE #4


     CULTURAL VALUE    =    RETURN TO THE
                             FOLD

CONSUM...
CULTURAL VALUE = RETURN TO THE FOLD
              CONSUMER BEHAVIOR = COOPERATIVE CONSUMERISM
                MANAGEMENT P...
CULTURAL VALUE = RETURN TO THE FOLD
                      CONSUMER BEHAVIOR = COOPERATIVE CONSUMERISM
                    ...
THE CHINESE CHARACTER FOR
CRISIS ALSO MEANS
OPPORTUNITY




BAD COMPANIES ARE DESTROYED
BY CRISIS. GOOD COMPANIES
SURVIVE ...
HE SEARCH ENGINE ISN’T YOU…
T’S YOUR CONSUMER




     63
62                            Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rub...
ROM SEARCH OPTIMIZATION
O BRAND OPTIMIZATION




     64
63                        Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
RECESSION-PROOF
YOUR BRAND


JOIN THE CONVERSATION AT
THEBRANDBUBBLE.COM
ON FACEBOOK
OR TWITTER
@JOHNGERZEMA




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Sesnewyork09 Brand Bubble Jgerzema

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Corporate strategy on (Online) Branding in crisis 2009

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Sesnewyork09 Brand Bubble Jgerzema

  1. 1. TO DOWNLOAD THE PRESENTATION - GO TO THEBRANDBUBBLE.COM/BLOG FOLLOW JOHN ON TWITTER: @JOHNGERZEMA
  2. 2. CALAMITY: MARKETING YOUR WAY OUT OF THIS RECESSION Source: Conde Naste Portfolio, January 2009 Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam 2
  3. 3. RESULTS 1–10 OF ABOUT 22,200,000 FOR RECESSION AND MARKETING Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam 3
  4. 4. FUNDAMENTAL SOCIETAL SHIFT FROM A CREDIT TO A CONFIDENCE CRISIS SEA CHANGES IN CONSUMER BEHAVIORS COMPANIES MUST CHANGE HOW THEY CONNECT WITH CONSUMERS Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam 4
  5. 5. MANAGING FOR AN UPTURN SUSTAINABLE GROWTH ALIGN BRAND AND BUSINESS STRATEGY ACQUIRE TALENT AND QUALITY DO MORE WITH LESS SHARPEN MESSAGING AND ROI RETURN TO YOUR CORE FACE YOUR CUSTOMER 5 Source: Y&R Strategy, HBR: Anthony T Jan, John Quelch Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
  6. 6. HALF OF ALL GLOBAL WEALTH HAS EVAPORATED $36 TRILLION DOLLAR LOSS WORLDWIDE S&P 500 DECLINED 64.4% FROM 2000 45% OF AMERICAN WEALTH FROM LOSS OF EQUITY AND HOUSING VALUES AVERAGE RECESSION IS 6-12 MONTHS. THIS IS A MARATHON 6 Source: Bloomberg, Iconoculture March 2009 Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
  7. 7. THE NEW FEAR ECONOMY NATIONAL DEBT UNEMPLOYMENT DETROIT HOUSING VALUES CURRENCY VALUATION ? EQUITY MARKETS PROTECTIONISM ? INTEREST RATES ? BANK LENDING COMMODITY PRICES FACTORY & HOUSING STARTS IN(STAG)FLATION ? CREDIT CARD EXPOSURE BAILOUT ? CONSUMER CONFIDENCE 7 Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
  8. 8. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: LOWEST SINCE 1967 (INCEPTION) EXCLUDING 2003 / IRAQ WAR PERIOD Source: ABC News 8
  9. 9. THE LARGEST U.S. BUDGET DEFICIT POST WWII 9 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
  10. 10. VISUALIZING THE BAILOUT 10 Source: The Atlantic Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
  11. 11. FRACTURED FAITH IN THE AMERICAN DREAM 11 11
  12. 12. HOUSING VALUES CONTINUE TO DECLINE ACROSS THE U.S. Source: “Irrational Exuberance”, 2nd edition, 2006, by Robert J. Schiller Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam 12
  13. 13. AMERICAN’S HOMES NO LONGER PERSONAL LINES OF CREDIT 13 Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam Source:Us Department of Housing and Labor, 2009
  14. 14. WHILE THE CREDIT CRISIS HAS HALTED HOUSING STARTS 14 Source: www.calculatedriskblog.com Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
  15. 15. INTO THE GREAT WIDE OPEN UNEMPLOYMENT 8.1%; HIGHEST IN TWENTY-FIVE YEARS THIRD STRAIGHT MONTH OF 600,000 JOBS LOST 15 Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
  16. 16. THIS PERIOD MARKED BY MOST JOB LOSSES, WEAKEST RECOVERY Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam 16 Source: Change in Nonfarm Pay rolls, Reported Monthly, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S Dept of Labor
  17. 17. AN EQUAL OPPORTUNITY RECESSION MILLIONAIRES HAVE LOST ONE- THIRD OF THEIR NET WORTH. 17 Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
  18. 18. AFFLUENT MORTGAGE RATE DEFAULTS 18 Source: LPS Applied Analytics Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
  19. 19. ONE STORY IN THE AMERICAN NIGHTMARE 20 Source:New York Times Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
  20. 20. A GROWING REALITY: A MORTGAGE IS FOREVER 19 11 Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam 21
  21. 21. MASLOW UPENDED: MARKETING MUST MOVE FROM PASSION TO COMPASSION 20 07 20 09 19 Source: American Progress.org February 2009 Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
  22. 22. YES WE CAN? 22 Source: Pew Research Center
  23. 23. THE ONLY CERTAINTY IS UNCERTAINTY 24 Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
  24. 24. “WE HAVE A STRONG CAPITAL POSITION” 24 23
  25. 25. TECTONIC SHIFTS IN CONSUMERISM: LACK OF DECAYING LACK OF PERMANENCE INFRASTRUCTURE LEADERSHIP AND RESPONSIBILITY SELFISHNESS TAXPAYERS TRUST AND ARE NOW COLLUSION SHAREHOLDERS FAILURE OF PROLONGED REGULATORS CONFLICTS AND EGREGIOUS PARTISANSHIP AND CRIMINAL BEHAVIOR 25
  26. 26. LACK OF LEADERSHIP AND RESPONSIBILITY 26 26
  27. 27. SELFISHNESS AND COLLUSION 27 Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
  28. 28. PROLONGED CONFLICTS AND PARTISANSHIP 28
  29. 29. EGREGIOUS AND CRIMINAL BEHAVIOR 29 Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
  30. 30. FAILURE OF REGULATORS 30 Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
  31. 31. TAXPAYERS ARE NOW SHAREHOLDERS 31 25 Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
  32. 32. DECAYING INFRASTRUCTURE 32 Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
  33. 33. LACK OF PERMANENCE 33 Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
  34. 34. THE NEW CULTURAL FAULT LINE 34 34
  35. 35. 35 28 Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
  36. 36. WE EXAMINED 15 YEARS OF DATA FROM BRANDASSET VALUATOR® QUARTERLY U.S. WORLD’S LARGEST 40,000 BRANDS PANEL OF 15,000+ DATABASE OF 215 STUDIES RESPONDENTS BRANDS ACROSS 44 72 DIFFERENT OVER 500,00 COUNTRIES BRAND METRICS CONSUMERS 36
  37. 37. BRANDS NOW ACCOUNT FOR 30% OF THE VALUE OF THE S&P 500 Source: Millward Brown Optimor 2007 37 30 Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
  38. 38. THE 250 MOST VALUABLE GLOBAL BRANDS ARE $2.197 TRILLION DOLLARS WHICH EXCEEDS THE GDP OF FRANCE 38 31 Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
  39. 39. BRAND ESTEEM AND REGARD IS DOWN 12% BRAND AWARENESS HAS DECLINED BY 20% PERCEPTIONS OF BRAND QUALITY HAS ERODED 24% TRUST IN BRANDS HAS DECLINED BY 50% 39 32 Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam 39
  40. 40. TRUST IS DESIRABLE, BUT IT HASN’T DIFFERENTIATED 40 Source:BrandAsset Valuator 1993-2007 Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
  41. 41. IN THE PAST QUARTER, A ‘TRUST VIRUS’ INFECTED MANY CATEGORIES 41 Base: BAV USA Q4 2007, Q4 2008; All Adults Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
  42. 42. “I SCREWED UP” 42 Source: Barack Obama Press Conference, February 2009 Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
  43. 43. CONSUMERS ARE BEGINNING TO OWN THEIR PROBLEMS 43 Source: Time Magazine Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
  44. 44. THEY REALIZE THERE’S A LONG, HARD SLOG AHEAD 44 Source: Reinhart and Rogoff, The Aftermath of Financial Crises, 2009
  45. 45. SAVINGS RATE HAS RISEN IN PAST FIVE CONSECUTIVE MONTHS 45 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce: Bureau of Economic Analysis Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
  46. 46. Q4 SPENDING FELL 3.7% FROM Q3 - STEEPEST DECLINE IN 62 YEARS. $3 TRILLION IN SPENDING STOPPED IN Q4, WAS SUSTAINING US GDP 46 Source: www.calculatedriskblog.com Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
  47. 47. MOST POPULAR TAG’S ABOUT CONSUMER BEHAVIOR 47 Source: Del.icio.us
  48. 48. EATE COMPETITIVE VANTAGE NOW EVERY RECESSION ENDS...EVENTUALLY CONSUMERS MOVING FROM ANXIETY TO ACTION HOW YOU ACT NOW WILL SHAPE YOUR FUTURE PERFORMANCE 48 39 Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
  49. 49. THE NEW RULES OF ‘POST-CRISIS CONSUMERISM’ NEW CULTURAL VALUES NEW CONSUMER BEHAVIORS NEW MANAGEMENT PRINCIPLES 49 Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
  50. 50. POST-CRISIS CONSUMERISM RULE #1 CULTURAL VALUE = INDESTRUCTIBLE SPIRIT CONSUMER STRATEGY = DURABLE LIVING MANAGEMENT = BRAND THAT PRINCIPLE LASTS 50 Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
  51. 51. CULTURAL VALUE = INDESTRUCTIBLE SPIRIT CONSUMER BEHAVIOR = DURABLE LIVING MANAGEMENT PRINCIPLE = BRAND THAT LASTS DURABLE LIVING 51 Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
  52. 52. CULTURAL VALUE = INDESTRUCTIBLE SPIRIT CONSUMER BEHAVIOR = DURABLE LIVING MANAGEMENT PRINCIPLE = BRAND THAT LASTS BRAND THAT LASTS 52 Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
  53. 53. POST-CRISIS CONSUMERISM RULE #2 CULTURAL VALUE = ETHICS AND FAIR PLAY CONSUMER STRATEGY = EMPATHY AND RESPECT MANAGEMENT = VALUE AND PRINCIPLE VALUES 53 Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
  54. 54. CULTURAL VALUE = ETHICS AND FAIR PLAY CONSUMER BEHAVIOR = R-E-S-P-E-C-T MANAGEMENT PRINCIPLE = VALUE AND VALUES EMPATHY AND RESPECT 54 Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
  55. 55. CULTURAL VALUE = ETHICS AND FAIR PLAY CONSUMER BEHAVIOR = R-E-S-P-E-C-T MANAGEMENT PRINCIPLE = VALUE AND VALUES VALUE AND VALUES 55 Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
  56. 56. POST-CRISIS CONSUMERISM RULE #3 CULTURAL VALUE = LIQUID LIFE CONSUMER STRATEGY = DÉCLASSÉ CONSUMPTION MANAGEMENT = DOLLARS AND PRINCIPLE SENSE 56 Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
  57. 57. CULTURAL VALUE=LIQUID LIFE CONSUMER BEHAVIOR = DÉCLASSÉ CONSUMPTION MANAGEMENT PRINCIPLE= DOLLARS AND SENSE DÉCLASSÉ CONSUMPTION 57 Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
  58. 58. CULTURAL VALUE=LIQUID LIFE CONSUMER BEHAVIOR = DÉCLASSÉ CONSUMPTION MANAGEMENT PRINCIPLE= DOLLARS AND SENSE DOLLARS AND SENSE 58 Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
  59. 59. POST-CRISIS CONSUMERISM RULE #4 CULTURAL VALUE = RETURN TO THE FOLD CONSUMER STRATEGY = COOPERATIVE CONSUMERISM MANAGEMENT = COMMUNITY PRINCIPLE ORGANIZER 59 Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
  60. 60. CULTURAL VALUE = RETURN TO THE FOLD CONSUMER BEHAVIOR = COOPERATIVE CONSUMERISM MANAGEMENT PRINCIPLE= COMMUNITY ORGANIZER COOPERATIVE CONSUMERISM 60 Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
  61. 61. CULTURAL VALUE = RETURN TO THE FOLD CONSUMER BEHAVIOR = COOPERATIVE CONSUMERISM MANAGEMENT PRINCIPLE= COMMUNITY ORGANIZER COMMUNITY ORGANIZER 61 Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
  62. 62. THE CHINESE CHARACTER FOR CRISIS ALSO MEANS OPPORTUNITY BAD COMPANIES ARE DESTROYED BY CRISIS. GOOD COMPANIES SURVIVE THEM. GREAT COMPANIES ARE IMPROVED BY THEM.” —ANDY GROVE 64 Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
  63. 63. HE SEARCH ENGINE ISN’T YOU… T’S YOUR CONSUMER 63 62 Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
  64. 64. ROM SEARCH OPTIMIZATION O BRAND OPTIMIZATION 64 63 Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
  65. 65. RECESSION-PROOF YOUR BRAND JOIN THE CONVERSATION AT THEBRANDBUBBLE.COM ON FACEBOOK OR TWITTER @JOHNGERZEMA 65
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