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The Future of the Fourth Estate
1. The Future of the Fourth Estate
Journalism is thriving.
2. The Future of the Fourth Estate
Journalism is thriving.
The business of news is not.
3. The Future of the Fourth Estate
How can we fund the information we
need for a functioning democracy?
4. Why do we need new models?
• The Internet broke the
connection between
ads and journalism
5. Why do we need new models?
• The Internet broke the
connection between
ads and journalism
• Civic engagement is
on the decline in our
highly mobile society
6. Why do we need new models?
• The Internet broke the
connection between
ads and journalism
• Civic engagement is
on the decline in our
highly mobile society
• Twin challenges: $$$
and reaching out to
“the former audience”
7. Have you seen the Globe today?
• New York Times Co.
sold it for a fraction of
what it paid in 1993
8. Have you seen the Globe today?
• New York Times Co.
sold it for a fraction of
what it paid in 1993
• Moving from 80% of
revenues coming from
ads to a 50-50 split
9. Have you seen the Globe today?
• New York Times Co.
sold it for a fraction of
what it paid in 1993
• Moving from 80% of
revenues coming from
ads to a 50-50 split
• Charging for online
content remains a
risky proposition
10. A golden age comes to an end
• From 1830s to 2005,
newspapers enjoyed
advertising dominance
11. A golden age comes to an end
• From 1830s to 2005,
newspapers enjoyed
advertising dominance
• A.J. Liebling on
monopoly papers:
“good, better, bestest”
12. A golden age comes to an end
• From 1830s to 2005,
newspapers enjoyed
advertising dominance
• A.J. Liebling on
monopoly papers:
“good, better, bestest”
• Philip Meyer: The Lords
of Savoy no longer
control the toll gate
13. The decline of civic engagement
• In “Bowling Alone,”
Putnam tied civic life to
newspaper reading
14. The decline of civic engagement
• In “Bowling Alone,”
Putnam tied civic life to
newspaper reading
• If the public doesn’t
care, then journalism
is endangered
15. The decline of civic engagement
• In “Bowling Alone,”
Putnam tied civic life to
newspaper reading
• If the public doesn’t
care, then journalism
is endangered
• News organizations
must create their own
involved publics
16. What is to be done?
• Clay Shirky warns that
no one thing will
replace newspapers
17. What is to be done?
• Clay Shirky warns that
no one thing will
replace newspapers
• What may make up for
some of the loss:
– Nonprofit media
– New forms of for-profit
– Volunteer media
18. What is to be done?
• Clay Shirky warns that
no one thing will
replace newspapers
• “The Wired City” takes
a look at:
– Nonprofit media
– New forms of for-profit
– Volunteer media
19. What is to be done?
• Clay Shirky warns that
no one thing will
replace newspapers
• “The Wired City” takes
a look at:
– Nonprofit media
– New forms of for-profit
– Volunteer media
20. What is to be done?
• Clay Shirky warns that
no one thing will
replace newspapers
• “The Wired City” takes
a look at:
– Nonprofit media
– New forms of for-profit
– Volunteer media
21. Trouble in New Haven
• New Haven Register’s
parent company
goes bankrupt
22. Trouble in New Haven
• New Haven Register’s
parent company
goes bankrupt
• An urban, mostly
minority community
with few news options
23. Trouble in New Haven
• New Haven Register’s
parent company
goes bankrupt
• An urban, mostly
minority community
with few news options
• What alternatives are
there when the
marketplace fails?
25. A new model that’s working
• New Haven Independent
is nonprofit, online-only,
supported by donors
26. A new model that’s working
• New Haven Independent
is nonprofit, online-only,
supported by donors
• Staff of four travels city
on bikes with cameras
and notebooks
27. A new model that’s working
• New Haven Independent
is nonprofit, online-only,
supported by donors
• Staff of four travels city
on bikes with cameras
and notebooks
• Focus on city life,
moderated comments
create new public square
28. Strengths of the Independent
• Founder and editor
Paul Bass isn’t reliant
on a shrinking ad base
29. Strengths of the Independent
• Founder and editor
Paul Bass isn’t reliant
on a shrinking ad base
• Online-only format
means costs are low
30. Strengths of the Independent
• Founder and editor
Paul Bass isn’t reliant
on a shrinking ad base
• Online-only format
means costs are low
• Hyperlocal content and
two-way conversation
build civic engagement
31. Weaknesses of the Independent
• Small readership
compared to the
New Haven Register
32. Weaknesses of the Independent
• Small readership
compared to the
New Haven Register
• Uncertain funding in
future years
33. Weaknesses of the Independent
• Small readership
compared to the
New Haven Register
• Uncertain funding in
future years
• Lack of print presence
may exclude residents
who are less engaged
34. The Register’s uncertain comeback
• Under John Paton,
parent company JRC
embraces “Digital First”
35. The Register’s uncertain comeback
• Under John Paton,
parent company JRC
embraces “Digital First”
• New Register editor
Matt DeRienzo reaches
out to community
36. The Register’s uncertain comeback
• Under John Paton,
parent company JRC
embraces “Digital First”
• New Register editor
Matt DeRienzo reaches
out to community
• Bankruptcy II could
pave the way for a
brighter digital future
37. Other nonprofit media
• Connecticut Mirror fills
gap left by decline of
the Hartford Courant
38. Other nonprofit media
• Connecticut Mirror fills
gap left by decline of
the Hartford Courant
• Voice of San Diego is a
reliable alternative to
the shaky metro daily
39. Other nonprofit media
• Connecticut Mirror fills
gap left by decline of
the Hartford Courant
• Voice of San Diego is a
reliable alternative to
the shaky metro daily
• NPR is the quality news
organization of choice
for tens of millions
40. Limits to the nonprofit model
• Foundations tend
to give money for
only a few years
41. Limits to the nonprofit model
• Foundations tend
to give money for
only a few years
• IRS put a halt to
approving nonprofit
status for news sites
42. Limits to the nonprofit model
• Foundations tend
to give money for
only a few years
• IRS put a halt to
approving nonprofit
status for news sites
• Nonprofit news
organizations can’t
endorse candidates
43. New forms of for-profit news
• Christine Stuart’s
CT News Junkie covers
Connecticut politics
44. New forms of for-profit news
• Christine Stuart’s
CT News Junkie covers
Connecticut politics
• Howard Owens
launched The Batavian
as a demo project
45. New forms of for-profit news
• Christine Stuart’s
CT News Junkie covers
Connecticut politics
• Howard Owens
launched The Batavian
as a demo project
• Debbie Galant started
Baristanet after losing
her N.Y. Times column
46. Limits to the for-profit model
• Digital dimes replace
print dollars, reducing
the scope of coverage
47. Limits to the for-profit model
• Digital dimes replace
print dollars, reducing
the scope of coverage
• Patch has given
hyperlocal community
news a bad reputation
48. Limits to the for-profit model
• Digital dimes replace
print dollars, reducing
the scope of coverage
• Patch has given
hyperlocal community
news a bad reputation
• Few have range of skills
needed to handle
journalism and business
49. What’s next?
• Tom Stites devised the
Banyan Project to foster
the rise of news co-ops
50. What’s next?
• Tom Stites devised the
Banyan Project to foster
the rise of news co-ops
• Members would give
money and/or labor, as
with a food co-op
51. What’s next?
• Tom Stites devised the
Banyan Project to foster
the rise of news co-ops
• Members would give
money and/or labor, as
with a food co-op
• Banyan is launching a
pilot in 2014 to be
called Haverhill Matters
52. The day that everything changed
• John Henry defines
a new generation
of media mogul
53. The day that everything changed
• John Henry defines
a new generation
of media mogul
• Jeff Bezos seeks to
revive one of our
great newspapers
54. The day that everything changed
• John Henry defines
a new generation
of media mogul
• Jeff Bezos seeks to
revive one of our
great newspapers
• Aaron Kushner heads to
California to pursue a
print-centric strategy
55. The day that everything changed
Pierre Omidyar aims for something
completely different with First Look Media
56. The return of the moguls
• Newspaper companies
couldn’t meet demands
of Wall Street
57. The return of the moguls
• Newspaper companies
couldn’t meet demands
of Wall Street
• Private wealth buys
time as news business
seeks new revenues
58. The return of the moguls
• Newspaper companies
couldn’t meet demands
of Wall Street
• Private wealth buys
time as news business
seeks new revenues
• Will the moguls spark a
revival? Or will they just
delay the inevitable?
60. Dan Kennedy
Northeastern University
Boston, MA 02115
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