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Presentation made to Amplified Leicester project on the foresight / drivers of change programme at Arup

Presentation made to Amplified Leicester project on the foresight / drivers of change programme at Arup

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Thinking like a futurist Thinking like a futurist Presentation Transcript

  • thinking like a futurist DUNCAN WILSON, ARUP AMPLIFIED LEICESTER CURVE, 12.11.09
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  • Arup is no ordinary firm We are an independent firm of designers, planners, engineers, consultants and technical specialists offering a broad range of professional services. Through our work, we make a positive difference in the world. We shape a better world
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  • Will Pryce
  • Our Clients Business Leaders STEEP Drivers Design Necessity DTX Leaders Our Staff Arup Fellows HEI Approach National Funding Research Champs Drivers of Change Research Roadmap DTF Projects On Project IP Executive Business as Usual NEXT 3-10 yrs NEW 1-3 yrs NOW < 1 yr ecosystem PULL PUSH Skills Networks Arup Projects In-house Training Papers & Press
    • 50 global networks – connect and stimulate ideas
    • Determine best practice, distil this into practical guidance and deliver the best of our global expertise to our projects
    • Aim is for client to have team of 10,000 people on their project
    skills networks
  • 1. Strategy
    • Corporate research roadmaps
    • Regional and group strategy facilitation
    2. Network 3. Funding Research Offering Components
    • Set up and management of research consortiums
    • Links to research funding bodies
    • Grow and develop the research network
    • Internal engagement in multidisciplinary research
    • Engagement with key external partners
    4. IP commercialisation
    • Harvesting and commercialisation of Arup’s IP
    • Strategic research planning – road mapping for clients
    • Multidisciplinary research packages
    • Delivery of commissioned research projects
    • Research programme management & Sandpits
    • Thought leadership
    • Knowledge Management
    5. Research Business research
    • a multi-disciplinary team of researchers, scientists, academics, strategists and consultants.
  • gut + heart + head working assumption I
  • working assumption II no ONE has the key
  • working assumption III emergence WWW2.0
  • working assumption IV only humans make boxes
  • working assumption V we must all share ONE PLANET
  • change is constant; context is variable. working assumption VI
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    • Thought leadership through the engagement of key stakeholders and industry experts in dialogue and collaboration
    Futures Workshops Hotel of the Future: the Business Traveller Retail 2024: Design Matters The Future of High-frequency Retail City Centre Retail 2025 The Future of Airport Retail Station Retail of the Future The Future of the Office Schools of the Future Interchange of the Future Resorts of the Future Urban Oasis Hotel of the Future: the Business Traveller Retail 2024: Design Matters The Future of High-frequency Retail City Centre Retail 2025 The Future of Airport Retail Station Retail of the Future The Future of the Office Schools of the Future Interchange of the Future Resorts of the Future Urban Oasis Hotel of the Future: the Business Traveller Retail 2024: Design Matters The Future of High-frequency Retail City Centre Retail 2025 The Future of Airport Retail Station Retail of the Future The Future of the Office Schools of the Future Interchange of the Future Resorts of the Future Urban Oasis Hotel of the Future: the Business Traveller Retail 2024: Design Matters The Future of High-frequency Retail City Centre Retail 2025 The Future of Airport Retail Station Retail of the Future The Future of the Office Schools of the Future Interchange of the Future Resorts of the Future Urban Oasis Hotel of the Future: the Business Traveller Retail 2024: Design Matters The Future of High-frequency Retail City Centre Retail 2025 The Future of Airport Retail Station Retail of the Future The Future of the Office Schools of the Future Interchange of the Future Resorts of the Future Urban Oasis Hotel of the Future: the Business Traveller Retail 2024: Design Matters The Future of High-frequency Retail City Centre Retail 2025 The Future of Airport Retail Station Retail of the Future The Future of the Office Schools of the Future Interchange of the Future Resorts of the Future Urban Oasis Hotel of the Future: the Business Traveller Retail 2024: Design Matters The Future of High-frequency Retail City Centre Retail 2025 The Future of Airport Retail Station Retail of the Future The Future of the Office Schools of the Future Interchange of the Future Resorts of the Future Urban Oasis Hotel of the Future: the Business Traveller Retail 2024: Design Matters The Future of High-frequency Retail City Centre Retail 2025 The Future of Airport Retail Station Retail of the Future The Future of the Office Schools of the Future Interchange of the Future Resorts of the Future Urban Oasis Hotel of the Future: the Business Traveller Retail 2024: Design Matters The Future of High-frequency Retail City Centre Retail 2025 The Future of Airport Retail Station Retail of the Future The Future of the Office Schools of the Future Interchange of the Future Resorts of the Future Urban Oasis Hotel of the Future: the Business Traveller Retail 2024: Design Matters The Future of High-frequency Retail City Centre Retail 2025 The Future of Airport Retail Station Retail of the Future The Future of the Office Schools of the Future Interchange of the Future Resorts of the Future Urban Oasis Hotel of the Future: the Business Traveller Retail 2024: Design Matters The Retail Participants are hand-picked for their backgrounds, cross-disciplinary skills and ability to collaboratively expand the workshop’s insights and discussion. Workshops vary in length from one to three days and cover a wide range of themes. Current and past workshops include:
    • Future of High-frequency Retail for Airports, City Centres and Stations
    • Hotels and Resorts of the Future for Business Travel and Urban Oases
    • Office of the Future
    • Interchange of the Future
    • School of the Future
    City Centre Retail 2025 The Future of Airport Retail Station Retail of the Future The Future of the Office Schools of the Future Interchange of the Future Resorts of the Future Urban Oasis Hotel of the Future: the Business Traveller Retail
  • Bloc Islands Re-globalisation Global Yo-Yo Flat Line Bloc Islands GLOBAL GOVERNANCE ECONOMIC GROWTH Official futures
  • a global view
  • What are the key external driving forces that will be important for the next 20 years? STEEP Drivers S ocial T echnological Ec onomic En vironmental P olitical disaggregate prioritize re-aggregate
  • S ocial T echnological E c onomic E n vironmental P olitical Demographic Change Convergence ChIndia Resource Depletion Lack of Vision/Leadership www.driversofchange.com
  • Foresight Feed Blog Team members upload their latest observations, research and events. drivers of change exhibitions Traveling series of exhibitions featuring the drivers of change research including London, Tokyo, etc. (need image)
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  • Anatomy of a card
    • Question
    • Photo
    • Factoid
    • Issue
    • Data
  • A few THOUGHTS some of the trends and themes we think are important
  • “ The Urban population [in China] is to reach 1.12 billion by 2050; this is a shift of more than 600 million people from rural to urban.” Guangming Daily Urbanisation
  • demographic change uncomfortably predictable Urban More Developed Rural More Developed Rural Less Developed Urban Less Developed Source: United Nations Population Information Network The current addition of 60 million new urban citizens annually is the equivalent of adding another Paris, Beijing, or Cairo…….. every other month demographic change
  • RESOURCE DEPLETION : ENERGY
  • the energy / wealth ladder Source: IMF, BP +$25k/capita : little extra energy needed +$15k/capita : services start to dominate growth +$5k/capita : industrialisation and mobility take off +$10k/capita : industrialisation near complete Korea Thailand Brazil Mexico India China GJ/capita GDP/capita (‘000 1997$ PPP) Japan EU Australia US 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
  • 12 Nov 2009 ageing population the number of people aged 60 will triple by 2050. Who will work for you?
  • Single-person households make up one-third of all households in Western Europe
  • the merging of sciences and other disciplines the combination of sectors to create new business the convergence of technology
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  • how independent is your thinking given that you work for Arup? - Tony 'without the past there is no present, without the present there is no future' so where does the moment go? - Ian It takes me all of my time to get through the moment without spending a lot of time contemplating the future. Maybe because I have struggled to bring up six kids on my own. Nancy what is true innovation? how do you know that what you come up with, makes futures better? instinct, research or good old fashioned guesswork? Farhana Its a bit like financiers trading in futures. Sarah In developing a clear vision for the future, how do you avoid what are often called &quot;unforseen consequences” – Ross become a clairvoyant!!! Or else, meditate, increase your creative ability and strengthen your intuition! Ishi communities in the future, will they be based more around the network or geographical presence? mike &quot;Arup think about shaping a better world&quot; How do you determine a better future? What parameters would you use to test it? mike do arup actually look to the past? or is that too obvious? Ian
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  • http://blogs.driversofchange.com/emtech/ http://blogs.driversofchange.com/doc/convergence/
  • What we do
    • Research
    • Projects developed to identify incremental and step-change opportunities for the built environment and business
    • Futures Workshops
    • Thought leadership through the engagement of key stakeholders and industry experts in dialogue and collaboration
    • Lectures
    • Communicating important future challenges, the global context and business implications to both industry and government heads
    • Publications
    • Detailed research results such as the drivers of change card set, offering provocative insights on major issues and their implications