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  • MY CONTEXT
  • STEEP
  • we also did an exhibition in a shipping container for design week in tokyo – we had a sushi bar conveyor carrying the cards plus blanks – we received 1200 issues over the duration of the 1 week show.
  • 50-100 workshops to be held – we are coaching the Jordanian team facilitating the events.TouringDoC bus collating feedback on the ground.Web-site to support on-line community.
  • The multitude of workshops are all leading to the development of a set of drivers of change cards for Jordan. Whilst this provides a focus for the project team there are many other deliverables on route. In addition to the campaign aspect of raising awareness and inclusivity the output of the drivers raised at each workshop are also acting as input to establish research and innovation agendas. For example, an issue raises the question, which in turn leads to the identification of research requirements, which also informs the creation of ideas. The platform being developed for capturing issues driving change is also generating a platform for open innovation at the national scale to encourage new and emerging business.
  • The different worlds are created by selecting 2 issues that when mapped as opposites in a 4 square allow us to explore 4 very different worlds. One square will often be the official future – the other three are often difficult “hard to think about” scenarios that seem implausible to those working in the industry
  • for example between 2005 and 2008 we collected the opinion of 1000’s of people on where they thought we were today (e.g. C) and where they thought we were heading in 20 years time (e.g. C’) – the arrows show the trends of movement of votes from one quadrant to another.

Transcript

  • 1. FORESIGHT +SCENARIOSDUNCAN WILSONINTEL COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH INSTITUTESUSTAINABLE CONNECTED CITIESWWW.CITIES.IO@DJDUNC
  • 2. DUNCAN WILSON – INTEL ICRI CITIES – @DJDUNC – WWW.CITIES.IO - SUSTAINABLE CONNECTED CITIES
  • 3. FORESIGHTNOW NEW NEXT, WHY, DRIVERS OF CHANGE, STEEP, JORDANDUNCAN WILSON – INTEL ICRI CITIES – @DJDUNC – WWW.CITIES.IO - SUSTAINABLE CONNECTED CITIESSCENARIOSPLAUSIBLE FUTURES, 2 AXIS, NARRATIVES
  • 4. FORESIGHTCYCLES:things which change and then change back (industry cycles)ISSUES:things which people disagree about (GM crops)TRENDS:things which change in one direction (increase in e-commerce)EVENTS:happenings that impact on the future (Kyoto Protocol, 9/11)DUNCAN WILSON – INTEL ICRI CITIES – @DJDUNC – WWW.CITIES.IO - SUSTAINABLE CONNECTED CITIESNOW NEW NEXT
  • 5. gut + heart + head
  • 6. WHY INVEST IN FORESIGHT?Better anticipate and manage change.Build resilience into business strategies.Pool ideas to drive business development.Understand the different contexts we are moving towards.Identify opportunities before or as they arise.To proactively mitigate business risks.Engage staff in debate and build consensus.Generate momentum to support strategies and programmes.DUNCAN WILSON – INTEL ICRI CITIES – @DJDUNC – WWW.CITIES.IO - SUSTAINABLE CONNECTED CITIES
  • 7. change is constant;context is variable.
  • 8. ISSUES AND TRENDS
  • 9. Anatomy of a cardQuestionPhotoFactIssueDataDUNCAN WILSON – INTEL ICRI CITIES – @DJDUNC – WWW.CITIES.IO - SUSTAINABLE CONNECTED CITIES
  • 10. DUNCAN WILSON – INTEL ICRI CITIES – @DJDUNC – WWW.CITIES.IO - SUSTAINABLE CONNECTED CITIES
  • 11. EXPERT VS CROWDVOTE VS CURATED
  • 12. Client: HRH Princess Sumaya bint El Hassan, President ofEl Hassan Science CityBrief:- Support the National Agenda- Identity issues, actions and research areas- Educate a wide group of citizens- Promote a national discussion on important issues- Create a body of knowledge as a foundation for action,- Developing a National information SystemOutput:- Develop a resilient and meaningful national strategy.- Foster innovations that contribute to economic growth.- Empower local communitiesForesight contact: Paul OliverThe National Campaign on Public Awarenessfor the Drivers of ChangeCASE STUDY: JORDAN NATIONAL CAMPAIGN
  • 13. Stakeholders & participants• Government ministries – senior civil servants.• Local government – political and administration.• Civil society – including local small businesses and serviceproviders, women‟s groups, refugee communities, NGOs and ruralcommunities.• University undergraduates and postgraduates• Pre-university students.• Business – senior executives, wide range of industry sectors,major players by % of GDP.• Academics (university level) – multiple disciplines, includingsocial, demographics, science and economics.• Jordanian armed forces – current and retired.• Royal Jordanian Geographic Centre• Department of StatisticsPage 14.
  • 14. Waste: When does waste become a resource?Page 15.Research: Waste kg/person/dayResearch: Energyconsumed in transportationResearch: Energy & waterconsumed in reprocessingResearch: Capital cost ofreprocessing plantsResearch:DemographicforecastsIdea: Build a CHPplant?Idea: Charge for collectingnon-recyclable waste + payfor recyclable waste?Idea: Set up localpoints for wastesorting?Idea: Public education toconsume less packaging?Idea: Taxpackaging atsource?Example output
  • 15. FORESIGHTNOW NEW NEXT, WHY, DRIVERS OF CHANGE, STEEP, JORDANDUNCAN WILSON – INTEL ICRI CITIES – @DJDUNC – WWW.CITIES.IO - SUSTAINABLE CONNECTED CITIESSCENARIOSPLAUSIBLE FUTURES, 2 AXIS, NARRATIVES
  • 16. OUR APPROACHDUNCAN WILSON – INTEL ICRI CITIES – @DJDUNC – WWW.CITIES.IO - SUSTAINABLE CONNECTED CITIES
  • 17. ContextBusiness travel willcontinue to grow.How confident are wein this official future?What else could happen?InsightsChoreographing SensationsSusan Kozel, Artist, School ofInteractive Arts & TechnologyCars. That’s a Man’s World.Mogens Laursen, BrandDevelopment Manger, VolvoGuests of the FutureSimon Dannatt, CEO, KaeMarketing IntelligenceConceptsOne SpaceFluid, open space withinterconnected roomsWe-hivePlug-in rooms are organizedaccording to a network of tribesEgo HotelHighly self-expressive guestpods situated aroundtransportation hubsTactilesSensual space sensitive to itsguest‟s needsHotels of the FutureThe Business TravellerHilton International, Copenhagen
  • 18. ContextThe role of the city as thecentre of commerce isthousands of years old.Why wouldn‟t it stay thisway?InsightsHigh Street Success FactorsChristophAckert, Chairman, LocationServicesGuerilla RetailingRuss Miller, VacantA Never Ending Love Story?DieterGeissbuehler, Architect, AlexanderGaliker DG und PartnerCity Centre Retail Gazette2025ConceptsThe Love InnHolistic leisure club and socialbeauty centreSpiral to HeavenComprehensive health check-up retailing spaceDigital Rough GuideCulturally-sensitive shoppingguide for the global consumerEmpty SpacesDisused space „mobbed‟ and„swarmed‟ for social shoppingCity Centre Retail 2025Gottlieb Duttweiler Institute, Zurich
  • 19. DUNCAN WILSON – INTEL ICRI CITIES – @DJDUNC – WWW.CITIES.IO - SUSTAINABLE CONNECTED CITIESPATENTABLE
  • 20. DUNCAN WILSON – INTEL ICRI CITIES – @DJDUNC – WWW.CITIES.IO - SUSTAINABLE CONNECTED CITIES2 AXIS
  • 21. The Global Human Development Index (HDI)combines three basic dimensions:1) life expectancy at birth as an indicator of thehealth and longevity of a population;2) adult literacy and the gross enrolment inprimary, secondary and tertiary educationalinstitutions; and3) standard of living, as measured by the naturallogarithm of the gross domestic product (GDP)per capita at a purchasing power parity in USDollars.Many consider this to be a much better evaluation ofthe health of a nation or economy than solely the
  • 22. Planetary Health represents the capacity of theplanet to support a wide variety of life, forexample, the number of species, bio-diversity, pollution, abundance and fertility, etc. Inthis context, we are interested in the carryingcapacity of the planetary system.
  • 23. •Plausible Campus Futures
  • 24. Bloc IslandsRe-globalisationGlobal Yo-YoFlat LineBloc IslandsGLOBAL GOVERNANCEECONOMICGROWTHOFFICIAL FUTURES
  • 25. a global view
  • 26. DUNCAN WILSON – INTEL ICRI CITIES – @DJDUNC – WWW.CITIES.IO - SUSTAINABLE CONNECTED CITIESDESIGN“YOU DON‟T HAVE TOEXPLAIN EVERYTHING”
  • 27. DUNCAN WILSON – INTEL ICRI CITIES – @DJDUNC – WWW.CITIES.IO - SUSTAINABLE CONNECTED CITIES@DJDUNCWWW.IOT.IOWWW.CITIES.IO