Social Cleavages and Consolidation of Democracy in Serbia 2000-2007 extended (but not improved) version IUC, 2009

Social cleavages Long-lasting division within society, based on fundamental issues - ideology - political organization - socio-demographic group Lipset and Rokkan freezing hypothesis National and industrial revolutions Center-periphery, land-industry, state-church, owners-worker

Long-lasting division within society, based on fundamental issues

- ideology

- political organization

- socio-demographic group

Lipset and Rokkan freezing hypothesis

National and industrial revolutions

Center-periphery, land-industry, state-church, owners-worker

Lipset-Rokkan hypothesis Ideological, identity-based oppositions Interest opposiotns Opposition within National elites Local-regional oppositions Functional axe Teritorial axe

Critics and inovations… materialist vs. postmaterialsts What is less than social cleavege? (Barolini, Mair, Deegan-Krause) - ideology - political organization - socio-demographic group

materialist vs. postmaterialsts

What is less than social cleavege? (Barolini, Mair, Deegan-Krause)

- ideology

- political organization

- socio-demographic group

Cleavages and postCommunism Elites project, not connected with social bases (Attila Agh) Not based as class conflicts (Offe, Preuss) missing middle approach, modernization approach, comparative approach (Evans, Whitefield) Kitschelt communists legacy study

Elites project, not connected with social bases (Attila Agh)

Not based as class conflicts (Offe, Preuss)

missing middle approach, modernization approach, comparative approach (Evans, Whitefield)

Kitschelt communists legacy study

New ideas on PostComm Cleaveges Fon Beyme: -ancient regime - transformational regime - centralization – decentralization - nationalism – Occidentalism (traditionalism-modernism (Markus), “return to ourselves or return to Europe” east-west, pre modern- modern –postmodern, Inglehart)

Fon Beyme:

-ancient regime - transformational regime

- centralization – decentralization

- nationalism – Occidentalism

(traditionalism-modernism (Markus), “return to ourselves or return to Europe”

east-west, pre modern- modern –postmodern, Inglehart)

The main line of party grouping Market allocation Po litical allocation Libertarno- cosmopolit. Autori tharian particularists

Consolidation meets cleaveges Ideological vs interest based - competition vs cooperation - zero sum game vs bargaining (consensus) Constellation – cross-cutting ,overlapping, reinforcing Hierarchy of cleavages

Ideological vs interest based

- competition vs cooperation

- zero sum game vs bargaining (consensus)

Constellation – cross-cutting ,overlapping, reinforcing

Hierarchy of cleavages

Serbian case – history via cleavages 1990 – president of Serbia 1996/97 – local elections defeat 1999 – NATO bombing

1990 – president of Serbia

1996/97 – local elections defeat

1999 – NATO bombing

History via cleavages 2 2000 – founding elections Ancient regime – New regime cleavage 2002 traditionalists – modernists 2003 - Djindjic assassination 2004. Transitional losers – winners Ancient regime – New regime? 2006 – same cleavages (Milosevic dies) 2008- Kosovo independence? radicals - Serbian democrats - democrats Ancient regime - new regime (democratic)

2000 – founding elections

Ancient regime – New regime cleavage

2002

traditionalists – modernists

2003 - Djindjic assassination

2004.

Transitional losers – winners

Ancient regime – New regime?

2006 – same cleavages

(Milosevic dies)

2008- Kosovo independence?

Cleavages in Serbia - summary Ancient regime – new regime Traditionalism – modernism (Occidentalism) (pre modern, modern and postmodern - Croatia) Transitional losers - transitional winners Center – periphery Materialism – post materialism

Ancient regime – new regime

Traditionalism – modernism (Occidentalism)

(pre modern, modern and postmodern - Croatia)

Transitional losers - transitional winners

Center – periphery

Materialism – post materialism

Consolidation and cleavages in Serbia 1. Traditionalism – modernism (Occidentalism) 2. Ancient regime – new regime 3. Transitional losers - transitional winners 4. Center – periphery 5. . Materialism – post materialism Ideological conflicts Interest opposition National elite competition Local and regional conflicts 1. 2 . 3 . 4 . 5 .

Conse q uences – 2008. Reinforcing cleavages – divided society Democracy is not the only game in the town – consensus across cleavages? Social exclusion and frustration We vs them

Reinforcing cleavages – divided society

Democracy is not the only game in the town – consensus across cleavages?

Social exclusion and frustration

We vs them

Nightmare continues… 2007- new elections and new government Democrats (stronger) and Serbian democrats Kosovo independence/”independence” Riots in Belgrade (feb 2008), and break up of coalition

2007- new elections and new government

Democrats (stronger) and Serbian democrats

Kosovo independence/”independence”

Riots in Belgrade (feb 2008), and break up of coalition

New elections – may 08 circumstances? Kosovo - international perspective Economy – middle class (investments, development) Kosovo vs. European Union Two block – weak middle (Serbian Dems) New Government - democrats and Socialists

circumstances?

Kosovo - international perspective

Economy – middle class (investments, development)

Kosovo vs. European Union

Two block – weak middle (Serbian Dems)

New Government - democrats and Socialists

Long term consequences Europe, not Kosovo (veeery long term) Changing type of party system – from polarized pluralism toward moderate pluralism (Sartori) Division among radicals – new “less” radical party – 20% percent and more Better prospects for democracy

Europe, not Kosovo (veeery long term)

Changing type of party system – from polarized pluralism toward moderate pluralism (Sartori)

Division among radicals – new “less” radical party – 20% percent and more

Better prospects for democracy

Short and mid term consequences Europe not Kosovo, but how? (incl. EU foreign policy ) Independence recognition – how to react? Nationalistic Rhetoric (or “just” strategy) International court of Justice – UN Assembly (Macedonia, Montenegro)

Europe not Kosovo, but how?

(incl. EU foreign policy )

Independence recognition – how to react?

Nationalistic Rhetoric (or “just” strategy)

International court of Justice – UN Assembly (Macedonia, Montenegro)

To be continued… Serbian identity and belonging? Is there a real choice? Identification based on what (lack of mobilization force)? Cant be too happy about EU (regulations) Region – Dear Ivo Sanader EU? NATO? (officially neutral, not recognized) SEKA

Serbian identity and belonging?

Is there a real choice? Identification based on what (lack of mobilization force)? Cant be too happy about EU (regulations)

Region – Dear Ivo Sanader

EU?

NATO? (officially neutral, not recognized)

SEKA

What cleaves Serbia? Economy - still not clear position, just matter of redistribution within narrow space (still transitional economy, Krastev) Big ideological cleavage – narrowed space (antidiscrimination law) no ancient regime cleavage any more center- periphery (Vojvodina case)

Economy - still not clear position, just matter of redistribution within narrow space (still transitional economy, Krastev)

Big ideological cleavage – narrowed space (antidiscrimination law)

no ancient regime cleavage any more

center- periphery (Vojvodina case)

The main line of party grouping – future? Market allocation Po litical allocation Libertarno- cosmopolit. Autori tharian particularists