Uk Futures Presentation 29 Jan 09

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Presetnation given at the DIUS family awayday by Alex King from Foresight.

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Uk Futures Presentation 29 Jan 09

  1. 1. UK Futures: Society & Economy 2030 Foresight Horizon Scanning Centre Scenarios for DIUS
  2. 2. 1. Scenarios – the what and the why <ul><li>What are they? </li></ul><ul><li>Credible but challenging portraits of the future </li></ul><ul><li>Hypothetical possibilities, not predictions </li></ul><ul><li>Qualitative, not quantitative models </li></ul><ul><li>Why use them? </li></ul><ul><li>Tool to inform strategy – investigating whether policies are robust </li></ul><ul><li>Challenge orthodox assumptions about the future </li></ul>
  3. 3. 2. The UK Futures scenarios <ul><li>Commissioned by DIUS to explore what would happen to policies if our assumptions about the future turn out to be false </li></ul><ul><li>Scenarios designed to be useful for DIUS, DIUS partners and related OGDs </li></ul><ul><li>Medium-scale scenario process – 8 month process involving workshops, interviews, online brainstorm, stakeholder group meetings, research programme, expert group meetings, work with HMT </li></ul><ul><li>A number of DIUS partner organisations involved in their construction </li></ul>
  4. 4. Scenarios – the grid “ Perpetual Motion” “ Shaken Open” “ Protective Collective” “ Self-Service” Open, multilateral Closed, unilateral/bilateral Global Political and Economic Context Collectivist Individualistic Social Values
  5. 5. Scenarios – the narratives <ul><li>All start from the same common position – an economic crisis </li></ul><ul><li>But nature of the crisis and society’s responses vary different across the scenarios </li></ul>
  6. 6. Scenarios – “Perpetual Motion” <ul><li>Short-term </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Economic downturn </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Rapid recovery </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Medium-term </li></ul><ul><ul><li>High growth </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Opening markets </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Rising inequalities </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Long-term: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Volatility and inequality accepted </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Social fragmentation; individual solutions </li></ul></ul>Open Closed Individual Collective Protective Collective Self-Service Shaken Open Perpetual Motion
  7. 7. <ul><li>Short-term </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Major world-wide recession </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Poorest are hardest hit </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Medium-term </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Action on inequalities – bottom-up </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Opening markets – though more regulated and ‘ethical’ </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Long-term: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Major humanitarian crisis in Africa </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Shift towards more global values and focus on equity </li></ul></ul>Scenarios – “Shaken Open” Open Closed Collective Individual Protective Collective Self-Service Shaken Open Perpetual Motion
  8. 8. Scenarios – “Self-Service” <ul><li>Short-term </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Global economic downturn </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Concerns over foreign ownership </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Medium-term </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Trade wars and protectionism </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>UK forced to follow suit – painful economic restructuring </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Lost of trust in ‘official’ solutions </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Long-term: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>People turn inwards – looking after themselves and their families </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Power shifts downwards </li></ul></ul>Open Closed Collective Individual Protective Collective Self-Service Shaken Open Perpetual Motion
  9. 9. Scenarios – “Protective Collective” <ul><li>Short-term </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Global economic downturn </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Increasing support for ‘national champions’ </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Medium-term </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Trade wars and protectionism </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>UK forced to follow suit – painful economic restructuring </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>People pull together – rise of ‘Britishness’ </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Long-term: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Nation state dominant – web of alliances and bilateral deals </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>UK: self-sufficiency ideal; nationalism </li></ul></ul>Open Closed Collective Individual Protective Collective Self-Service Shaken Open Perpetual Motion
  10. 10. Scenarios – Summary of key features “ Perpetual Motion” “ Shaken Open” “ Protective Collective” “ Self-Service” Open Closed Collective Individual <ul><li>Global free markets </li></ul><ul><li>Mosaic of self-reliant individuals </li></ul><ul><li>Export-driven emerging economies grow rapidly, competing with West </li></ul><ul><li>Deep pockets of poverty </li></ul><ul><li>Open markets in resources, though market failures occur </li></ul><ul><li>Strongly-regulated global economy </li></ul><ul><li>Strong collective identities </li></ul><ul><li>Export-driven emerging economies grow rapidly, collaborating with West </li></ul><ul><li>Moderate inequality – high redistribution </li></ul><ul><li>State intervention in resource provision </li></ul><ul><li>Market barriers and strong nations </li></ul><ul><li>Strong collective identity within the UK </li></ul><ul><li>Resource-rich emerging economies grow in power </li></ul><ul><li>Low inequality within the UK </li></ul><ul><li>Access to resources is constrained, with high state intervention and rationing </li></ul><ul><li>Market barriers and protectionism </li></ul><ul><li>Competitive individuals, strong families </li></ul><ul><li>Resource-rich emerging economies grow in wealth </li></ul><ul><li>Moderate inequality within UK </li></ul><ul><li>Access to resources is constrained, with local adaptation and pricing mechanisms </li></ul>
  11. 11. Using the scenarios <ul><li>Scenarios can be used to test robustness and long-term sustainability of particular policies </li></ul><ul><li>These scenarios have been used by HMT to look at prosperity and by DIUS to look at elements of the HE Framework </li></ul><ul><li>They are available for use by DIUS partner organisations – contact me if interested: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Email: [email_address] </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Tel: 020 3300 8546 </li></ul></ul>

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