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  1. 1. Group ‘Verbs’. Students: Dirk Wigmans 874055 - Arthur Bonzi Monteiro - Renan Coutinho - Camila Tobío http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=who-made-the-sarin Background information It all starts with our beloved Rector Magnificus, mr Eijlander. We all know him as a modest and polite executive at our university. However there is something completely wrong with him. Thanks to a whistleblower named Edward Snowden(klokkenluider in Dutch) it became publicly known that our beloved rector lives a double life and has an alibi. In his second life he is in fact (I interviewed my girlfriend for some input and she mentioned that a disastrous situation would be that our rector was a transsexual in his double life, I personally chose to ignore this option) involved in an organization which helped providing Syria with the Sarin nerve gasses which is used during the civil attacks in Syria a few weeks ago. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/05/russia-west- gas-attack-syria Mister Snowden is a massive computer geek, studying at Tilburg University, and currently in an ICT-education. This student hacked a computer database from Interpol, Federal Bureaus and Investigation Offices from all around the world and he came up with some classified documents regarding a top secret investigation in a criminal organization called Kalasjnikov. This is their gang sign, and they are well known in the world for their expertise in gasses and other dangerous poisons. Mister Snowden, our impressive hacker, found out the name of a certain man, called Piotr Eijlandski on those lists. It was a person who invested loads of money in a Russian chemical company who was insinuated to have made the sarin nerve gasses to Syria. There is enough evidence to be sure that this company provided the leaders and top criminals of Syria with this devastating and demolishing gas called Sarin. Mister Snowden became very curious finding all those information and there rang a bell when he saw the name Piotr Eilandski. So our student Snowden investigated further on this Piotr Eilandski and found out some pictures of this Piotr Eilandski when he was at a secret press conference of the chemical company in Russia and found some cash flows from Tilburg in the direction of the chemical plant in Moscow. Our student became in an incredibly huge shock when he saw the pictures of this person at the company and he became more interested in this case, because he still could not believe what he currently was insinuating to himself. But to ascertain his suggestions he dug even further and found out that Piotr Eilandski and Mr. Eijlander (our rector) where at the same flights from Amsterdam to
  2. 2. Group ‘Verbs’. Students: Dirk Wigmans 874055 - Arthur Bonzi Monteiro - Renan Coutinho - Camila Tobío http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=who-made-the-sarin Moscow (the chemical facility is located near Moscow) and everytime Mr. Eijlander was not present at the university there was a mobile phone of Eilandski active in the neighborhood of Moscow. Thus, our massive hacker was sure of it and in exchange of immunity provided by the Dutch government he made all this information publicly known in the Netherlands and therefore as well at the university. Lively situation: the 3W’s included But where is our current rector in this story? Our rector is in a meeting the whole day and has no clue of anything going on. He is in a meeting with multiple professors from different universities and there is no television, computer or other electronics in his surroundings. They have a meeting from 12:00 untill 18:00 and the news came in the publicity at the clock of 13:00 and the next break of Mr. Eijlander was at 15:00. In the meantime the news has been leaked and the whole university and surroundings became aware of the fact that our rector in his double life is involved in a criminal organization and the majority of the university started a riot in front of Koopmans building and it looked like from the entrance view of K: Everybody is getting so angry out of curiosity and is under the supposition that our own rector is involved in a criminal organization of chemicals, especially in financing them. The situation in front of the K building is getting grimy and tight lipped and there are coming banners and yells everywhere and the everybody is trying to break in to demolish the locked up K-building (in the meantime done by the security of the Tilburg University out of human’s protection). In the meantime the personal assistant of Mr. Eijlander rushes in the conference room where Mr. Eijlander has the meeting and he hands over a mobile phone to him and he mentions it that it is very urgent and there was Russian speaking person on the phone. The assistant and the professors are sent out of the room by Mr. Eijlander and he
  3. 3. Group ‘Verbs’. Students: Dirk Wigmans 874055 - Arthur Bonzi Monteiro - Renan Coutinho - Camila Tobío http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=who-made-the-sarin locks himself up before taking the phone. Mr. Eijlander is being told by the Russian guy that he is dismantled and that he is all over the news and there is a huge riot against him going on in front of the building. There is a lot of violence and the barricade of the security in order to protect the building is not going to last forever. The police and the Dutch ME have shown up as well and the students are pointing their aim at them since they are not taking any action. It is getting a real disaster at the campus and the violence is involving and when the rector looks out of the room he is shocked, besides his full awareness regarding the situation he has put himself into. The Russian guy from the chemical plant says they are going to start with their in case of need so-called ‘emergency plan A’. Decision the rector is willing to make The emergency plan indicates that the rector has to leave the building and has to be escaped into Russian custody as soon as possible. This is done via the rooftop, since there will come a Russian helicopter there. He has a lot of information of the Russian chemical plant which has to be kept safely inside the firm and not to be leaked out into external people. For now it is only shown that the rector was sometimes present at the chemical firm and sent lots money to the firm which provided the nerve gasses. So the decision the rector has to made is to follow the emergency plan proposed by the Russian company or another one which I will tell shortly after this (see the image). This plan indicates that there will be in a short moment a helicopter on the roof and he has to risk his life in order to reach the helicopter and it still is highly uncertain that he is able to escape the country to Russia where he have to shelter the rest of his life and has to hope whether he will be protected under his Russian passport. The other decision is to remain stiff and silent and think he can still bail out of this situation by surrendering himself and remain silent until they have proven anything. There are two passports of himself and his alter ego and there might be a way to push away everything on that person. The chance he will get away with that is about zero percent and he thinks he will be dismantled anyway and gets locked up for the rest of his life. The factors which influence his decisions are He has decided to make is the escape plan called emergency plan A. This means that this outcome is called: ‘safety’: safety for himself and the other students. This is so since the whole idea is that he gets to Russia and will never be heard again of. He also wants to provide safety for the students downstairs because he feels very guilty about the situation. Outcome measure
  4. 4. Group ‘Verbs’. Students: Dirk Wigmans 874055 - Arthur Bonzi Monteiro - Renan Coutinho - Camila Tobío http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=who-made-the-sarin There are some intermediate variables which influence his outcome present as well. These are for instance the total escape time: the total it takes for him to reach the Russian helicopter in safety and to leave the building. Because the faster he left the building, the faster the internal disaster at the university is over and the riot is useless. The escape speed is also influenced by the amount of security in the building and the hazard management protocols active and present for these sorts of situations. Another intermediate variable is the effectiveness of the police squads in keeping the safety beyond a safe limit. If they are present before the building very soon and if they are able to keep the situation in front of the building save, it eventually will improve the overall safety of everyone. Another intermediate variable is the amount of students as well, since the more students are present the stronger they stand and the more prone the situation is to get dirty. The last intermediate variable present in this situation is the number of direct incidents occurring and especially the incidents with a negative aspect on it. If there are more students present, the chance of incidents increases and that has a negative on the safety. The parameters present which are influencing the number of students are atmosphere and publicity. In such stressful and dreadful disasters there are some uncertain factors like publicity. If everybody is out in front of the K-building, then nobody knows if there is coming more or how busy it is going to be. The national and even international news can come by and it can all influence the number of people present in front of the building and therefore disaster. The atmosphere which is uncertain has an effect on the parameters as well. If the atmosphere is negative it influences the number of students negatively and it can be the other way around. If the situation becomes too positive and bright it is no riot anymore and it will affect the number of students as well. There are two parameters influencing the escape speed as well: if there is a lot of security in the building, than the rector has no chance to escape and it will soon be over and the peace can return. If there is almost no security the rector can flee directly to his helicopter and then the disaster at the university in this case as well soon over. If there are a lot of hazard management effects going on than there should be no escape time and a reasonable solution to deal with this solution. There is one decision variable present in our influence diagram and that one is about the attitude of the students about getting into riots. Some students will not give a thing about riots and will remain quiet and there are a lot of students who are very fiery in such situation and will show up immediately. In this case it is about the philosophy of the students. Parameter Intermedia te variable Decision variable
  5. 5. Group ‘Verbs’. Students: Dirk Wigmans 874055 - Arthur Bonzi Monteiro - Renan Coutinho - Camila Tobío http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=who-made-the-sarin Influence diagram