麦格理证券研究:2011年4月中国互联网流量监测观察报告(下载)

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麦格理证券研究:2011年4月中国互联网流量监测观察报告(下载)

  1. 1. CHINA Internet Traffic Tracker Valuation Summary Stock code Company Mkt price Rating TP (US$) Beyond the stories (US$) SINA US Sina 111.3 OP 95.0 Event BIDU US Baidu 140.7 OP 145.0 DANG US Dangdang 19.4 OP 36.0  This report is our first issue of Internet Traffic Tracker to analyse Internet YOKU US Youku 53.0 UP 32.0 traffic data and trends of leading Chinese websites in major segments such as Source: Macquarie Research, April 2011 th Prices as of 12 April, 2011 portals, search, video, e-commerce, miniblog, and SNS. While investors and analysts alike often are captivated by the exciting “stories” of Internet companies, we believe the traffic data can help substantiate the fundamentals beyond just the “stories”. Key observations include online video is a lot more competitive than many believe and SNS is not growing much. Retain Outperform on Sina, Baidu, Dangdang and Underperform on Youku. Impact  Portal. It is an oligopoly segment and the data shows that Internet users increasingly gravitate towards the top 5 portal sites for news. However, NetEase has lost share in its portal (163.com). Given it is a mature segment, relatively modest change in market share is expected. All leading portals have other major businesses.  Search. It is a duopoly segment but appears to be moving to a near monopoly segment. Baidu has been gaining share at the expense of Google China and Soso (Tencent). With its partnership with Alibaba, Sogou (Sohu) has been ramping up its user base.  Online video. It is a highly fragmented and competitive segment with 8 video sites having over 30% penetration into the total Internet video user population in China. In addition, the data does not capture the peer-to-peer video software users, implying the segment is even more competitive than the data here suggests. Youku remains the leader but Qiyi and Sohu are catching up fast. Surprisingly, smaller sites such as Xunlei, 56 and K6 have been able to hold on to their users and grow in line with the market, with total users +30% YoY.  E-commerce. Number of ecommerce users is growing at 50+% YoY, faster than any other segment except miniblog. Group buy players such as Lashou are rapidly ramping up user base. Among conventional B2C players, market share and visitor patterns have seen little change. Dangdang is holding on to its penetration rate in monthly unique visitors despite competitive concerns.  Miniblog. Hottest segment in Internet in China with total miniblog users up 10x from a year ago. Sina’s Weibo still dominant but Tencent and Sohu appear to be catching up.  Social Network Services. Despite a lot of attention placed on SNS by investors and analysts, the space is not growing much in China. #1 SNS site Renren has been maintaining its user base while #2 Kaixin is seeing a YoY decline in its monthly unique visitor counts. Jiong Shao, CFA, CMT +852 3922 3566 jiong.shao@macquarie.com Outlook Steve Zhang, CFA +852 3922 3578 steve.zhang@macquarie.com  We continue to believe that Chinese Internet has entered into a new phase Jose Pun +852 3922 3593 jose.pun@macquarie.com with many new business models having emerged. With quite a few exciting “stories”, it is important for analysts and investors to figure out what is real and 13 April 2011 what is talk. Therefore, we believe analysis of data traffic is a critical element Macquarie Capital Securities Limited of Internet research.Please refer to the important disclosures and analyst certification on inside back cover of this document, or on ourwebsite www.macquarie.com.au/disclosures.
  2. 2. Macquarie Research Internet Traffic Tracker Analysis Portals (Oligopoly) – Internet users increasingly rely on top portal sites; pecking order unlikely to change anytime soon The total number of monthly unique visitors increased 18% YoY and reached 373.6 mn in Feb 2011, suggesting over 80% of Chinese Internet users visited portal sites in that month. Given portal is a mature segment of the Chinese Internet industry, significant market share shift and meaningful change in competitive positioning among players should not be expected. However, we have observed that NetEase’s portal site (163.com) has lost some share in terms of % of portal users who visited 163.com over the last few months according to the data below. In addition, the data suggests that outside of the top 5 portal sites (qq.com, sina.com.cn, 163.com, sohu.com, ifeng.com) the rest of the portals appear to be losing Internet users’ interest. Across the board, a smaller percentage of total portal visitors are using tier 2 portal sites (yahoo.com.cn, msn.com.cn, china.com, yahoo.com, tom.com, 21cn.com, msn.com) today than a year ago. Generally speaking, Chinese Internet users appear to increasingly gravitate towards top portal sites for news. We expect this trend to continue.Fig 1 Web portal monthly unique visitors (‘m)Web portal monthly unique visitors(m) 2010-01 2010-02 2010-03 2010-04 2010-05 2010-06 2010-07 2010-08 2010-09 2010-10 2010-11 2010-12 2011-01 2011-02Total 306.8 315.6 372.1 365.7 350.7 346.7 359.0 359.8 357.9 348.3 355.8 358.8 367.4 373.6qq.com 283.1 287.1 347.1 344.4 324.8 325.3 339.2 339.3 336.5 328.7 336.1 335.4 344.1 350.0sina.com.cn 234.7 218.5 271.0 279.2 266.2 269.2 275.4 276.6 267.7 272.8 275.6 279.9 281.3 289.7163.com 210.3 178.2 235.3 244.5 229.7 227.9 231.0 236.0 228.7 228.2 233.4 238.9 234.8 230.0sohu.com 188.9 167.3 221.2 226.9 214.7 217.6 212.9 214.1 203.1 211.4 212.9 219.2 222.9 229.2ifeng.com 83.7 66.3 91.4 99.9 90.2 89.8 90.7 96.2 99.9 105.0 104.9 106.0 104.9 105.9yahoo.com.cn 92.4 71.7 100.6 121.5 108.5 107.6 107.7 101.2 95.2 94.8 95.5 101.5 99.8 95.2msn.com.cn 76.4 65.7 92.4 98.3 85.9 84.2 81.4 81.4 74.0 72.1 88.7 71.6 66.6 63.3china.com 31.4 23.8 32.1 33.0 35.3 33.7 31.9 36.1 37.7 39.3 33.1 33.0 31.5 32.3yahoo.com 30.4 22.3 31.7 33.7 32.2 33.0 31.1 31.8 29.9 30.3 30.0 29.2 26.9 28.5tom.com 43.1 31.5 40.6 42.7 39.2 45.5 39.9 37.8 35.6 34.1 29.4 25.1 25.6 24.421cn.com 24.3 19.5 26.3 29.4 33.0 34.3 32.7 26.5 22.0 23.9 23.9 22.8 24.9 21.8msn.com 18.9 14.8 18.7 19.9 21.9 22.7 20.4 23.9 17.4 17.8 34.9 20.1 19.7 18.4Source: iResearch, Macquarie Research, April 2011Fig 2 Web portal penetration rate (‘m)Web portal penetration rate 2010-01 2010-02 2010-03 2010-04 2010-05 2010-06 2010-07 2010-08 2010-09 2010-10 2010-11 2010-12 2011-01 2011-02qq.com 92.3% 91.0% 93.3% 94.2% 92.6% 93.8% 94.5% 94.3% 94.0% 94.4% 94.5% 93.5% 93.7% 93.7%sina.com.cn 76.5% 69.2% 72.8% 76.4% 75.9% 77.6% 76.7% 76.9% 74.8% 78.3% 77.5% 78.0% 76.6% 77.5%163.com 68.5% 56.5% 63.2% 66.9% 65.5% 65.7% 64.3% 65.6% 63.9% 65.5% 65.6% 66.6% 63.9% 61.6%sohu.com 61.6% 53.0% 59.5% 62.0% 61.2% 62.8% 59.3% 59.5% 56.8% 60.7% 59.8% 61.1% 60.7% 61.4%ifeng.com 27.3% 21.0% 24.6% 27.3% 25.7% 25.9% 25.3% 26.7% 27.9% 30.1% 29.5% 29.5% 28.6% 28.3%yahoo.com.cn 30.1% 22.7% 27.0% 33.2% 30.9% 31.0% 30.0% 28.1% 26.6% 27.2% 26.9% 28.3% 27.2% 25.5%msn.com.cn 24.9% 20.8% 24.8% 26.9% 24.5% 24.3% 22.7% 22.6% 20.7% 20.7% 24.9% 20.0% 18.1% 16.9%china.com 10.2% 7.5% 8.6% 9.0% 10.1% 9.7% 8.9% 10.0% 10.5% 11.3% 9.3% 9.2% 8.6% 8.6%yahoo.com 9.9% 7.1% 8.5% 9.2% 9.2% 9.5% 8.7% 8.8% 8.3% 8.7% 8.4% 8.1% 7.3% 7.6%tom.com 14.1% 10.0% 10.9% 11.7% 11.2% 13.1% 11.1% 10.5% 9.9% 9.8% 8.3% 7.0% 7.0% 6.5%21cn.com 7.9% 6.2% 7.1% 8.0% 9.4% 9.9% 9.1% 7.4% 6.1% 6.9% 6.7% 6.3% 6.8% 5.8%msn.com 6.2% 4.7% 5.0% 5.5% 6.3% 6.5% 5.7% 6.7% 4.9% 5.1% 9.8% 5.6% 5.4% 4.9%Source: iResearch, Macquarie Research, April 201113 April 2011 2
  3. 3. Macquarie Research Internet Traffic Tracker Search (duopoly but moving to monopoly) – Baidu has strengthened its market leadership; Google & Soso (Tencent) losing ground In Feb 2011, 356.5mn Internet users searched the web, up 21% YoY. While investors and analysts often look at search query market share to analyse market positioning of different search engines, we are using monthly unique visitors here but have reached a similar conclusion – Baidu has been strengthening its market leadership at the expense of almost every other search engine. Specifically, 95% of search users today in China use Baidu compared to 90% a year ago. On the other hand, the percentage of search users in China who have been using Google and Soso has been generally declining over the last year. In Feb 2011, roughly 43% and 27% of search users visited Google and Soso, respectively, both figures down noticeably from a year ago. Sogou (Sohu), however, has been gradually increasing its market penetration according to the data below. In Feb 2011, 18% of Internet search users used Sogou compared to the low teens a year ago.Fig 3 Web search monthly unique visitors (‘m)Web search monthly unique visitors(m) 2010-01 2010-02 2010-03 2010-04 2010-05 2010-06 2010-07 2010-08 2010-09 2010-10 2010-11 2010-12 2011-01 2011-02Total 291.7 294.8 350.4 348.9 331.2 332.5 342.5 342.7 341.4 333.8 340.6 344.8 349.8 356.5Baidu 267.0 267.4 328.4 332.1 308.3 311.3 320.0 321.0 319.0 313.9 320.6 325.9 332.2 337.7Google China 168.2 140.7 187.8 186.9 168.5 171.5 177.5 174.7 172.5 168.1 160.8 157.6 154.1 154.5Soso 99.9 86.8 101.0 106.4 99.6 108.0 111.6 105.7 112.5 110.9 100.8 112.7 100.9 97.3Sogou 39.9 29.8 42.6 50.0 43.3 43.3 62.5 64.7 59.3 56.6 57.0 58.2 62.4 63.7Google 39.6 28.8 46.9 50.0 42.8 41.7 43.5 45.1 41.2 44.3 41.1 39.8 36.2 38.9Bing 21.5 15.2 24.2 24.5 21.7 22.3 21.4 21.0 20.7 20.8 23.7 21.2 21.6 20.0Youdao 9.4 5.8 8.4 11.6 15.1 15.4 15.6 17.6 18.7 23.1 22.6 22.9 15.4 14.7Gougou 22.4 15.6 17.8 19.3 21.4 19.2 18.9 14.8 13.3 13.9 12.8 10.2 10.1 9.1Yahoo China 4.7 3.0 4.4 5.1 5.6 5.4 4.5 5.4 3.8 4.0 3.8 3.6 2.9 2.9Source: iResearch, Macquarie Research, April 2011Fig 4 Web search penetration rate (by monthly unique visitors)Web search penetration rate 2010-01 2010-02 2010-03 2010-04 2010-05 2010-06 2010-07 2010-08 2010-09 2010-10 2010-11 2010-12 2011-01 2011-02Baidu 91.5% 90.7% 93.7% 95.2% 93.1% 93.6% 93.4% 93.7% 93.4% 94.0% 94.1% 94.5% 95.0% 94.7%Google China 57.7% 47.7% 53.6% 53.6% 50.9% 51.6% 51.8% 51.0% 50.5% 50.4% 47.2% 45.7% 44.1% 43.3%Soso 34.3% 29.4% 28.8% 30.5% 30.1% 32.5% 32.6% 30.8% 33.0% 33.2% 29.6% 32.7% 28.9% 27.3%Sogou 13.7% 10.1% 12.1% 14.3% 13.1% 13.0% 18.2% 18.9% 17.4% 17.0% 16.7% 16.9% 17.8% 17.9%Google 13.6% 9.8% 13.4% 14.3% 12.9% 12.6% 12.7% 13.2% 12.1% 13.3% 12.1% 11.5% 10.3% 10.9%Bing 7.4% 5.2% 6.9% 7.0% 6.5% 6.7% 6.2% 6.1% 6.1% 6.2% 7.0% 6.2% 6.2% 5.6%Youdao 3.2% 2.0% 2.4% 3.3% 4.6% 4.6% 4.5% 5.1% 5.5% 6.9% 6.6% 6.6% 4.4% 4.1%Gougou 7.7% 5.3% 5.1% 5.5% 6.5% 5.8% 5.5% 4.3% 3.9% 4.2% 3.7% 3.0% 2.9% 2.6%Yahoo China 1.6% 1.0% 1.3% 1.5% 1.7% 1.6% 1.3% 1.6% 1.1% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 0.8% 0.8%Source: iResearch, Macquarie Research, April 2011 Video (highly fragmented and competitive) – 8 video sites that have 30% or higher penetration rate among video viewers; Qiyi the fastest grower In Feb 2011, there were 343mn Internet video users in China, up 30% YoY, and eight video sites each had at least 30% penetration among Internet video users, suggesting a highly fragmented marketplace. In other words, for each of these 8 sites, at least 30% of the Chinese Internet video users visited the site in the month of Feb. Over the last 12 months, Youku has gained modestly in penetration to now about 65% while #2 player Tudou has largely maintained its penetration of around 55%. The biggest share gainers are Qiyi and Sohu. Since its inception less than a year ago, Qiyi now has about 30% penetration. With significant investments in video, Sohu has been gradually improving its penetration from mid 20s a year ago to high 30s today. Somewhat surprisingly, smaller players such as Ku6, Xunlei, and 56 have largely maintained their penetration rate. While many industry observers have been predicting upcoming industry consolidation, the reality appears, for the time being, that the Chinese Internet video industry today remains highly fragmented and competitive. We also highlight that the data below excludes peer-to-peer software sub-segment of the Internet video industry, making the online video market even more competitive.13 April 2011 3
  4. 4. Macquarie Research Internet Traffic TrackerFig 5 Online video website monthly unique visitors (‘m)Online video website monthly unique visitors (m) 2010-01 2010-02 2010-03 2010-04 2010-05 2010-06 2010-07 2010-08 2010-09 2010-10 2010-11 2010-12 2011-01 2011-02Total 270.5 264.3 309.4 315.8 305.5 307.9 318.9 324.5 317.1 313.9 322.9 329.3 335.6 343.4Youku 171.1 153.5 182.1 193.7 194.8 199.2 207.3 213.7 203.0 206.5 203.6 209.4 215.9 225.6Tudou 152.0 134.4 152.9 165.9 167.7 170.2 177.0 183.6 176.1 177.1 175.6 182.4 186.7 188.9Sohu 61.8 65.7 81.7 81.3 84.5 84.1 91.6 95.5 84.9 89.3 95.7 107.9 119.6 128.0Qiyi - - - 2.1 2.6 2.2 28.1 43.4 44.6 50.4 51.6 56.3 76.5 102.4Ku6 98.2 79.1 90.8 101.1 110.8 124.0 125.0 123.3 110.5 113.0 120.1 120.3 122.0 112.4Sina 107.0 88.5 104.0 110.6 114.0 107.6 107.4 117.2 114.4 119.2 122.4 115.5 117.7 124.0Xunlei 112.3 94.3 108.7 117.1 122.0 119.9 120.3 118.0 111.4 115.1 105.5 109.5 129.2 120.556 95.7 81.4 95.3 103.7 113.1 110.0 108.1 112.7 103.7 110.7 103.6 110.5 107.0 106.7PPTV 30.6 34.8 39.9 32.9 30.6 45.6 48.5 49.2 38.5 41.8 51.6 54.6 56.3 46.5CNTV 31.5 35.7 40.1 45.1 41.7 72.6 58.3 52.9 52.4 58.0 65.9 59.0 67.1 73.7PPS 45.3 40.9 40.8 48.9 48.2 50.4 55.9 54.7 48.4 52.6 55.0 54.4 60.5 56.8Six Rooms 36.2 29.7 30.6 28.6 29.4 32.7 34.6 36.2 27.8 26.3 27.9 26.0 27.3 33.0Joy.cn 41.2 35.1 43.3 43.0 47.7 51.4 50.8 51.4 49.4 48.7 35.9 34.7 40.0 41.9Letv 15.2 19.6 19.2 19.6 18.5 17.4 20.0 30.9 26.3 25.1 25.2 28.4 35.9 42.8Source: iResearch, Macquarie Research, April 2011Fig 6 Online video website penetration rate (by monthly unique visitors)Online video website penetration rate 2010-01 2010-02 2010-03 2010-04 2010-05 2010-06 2010-07 2010-08 2010-09 2010-10 2010-11 2010-12 2011-01 2011-02Youku 63.3% 58.1% 58.9% 61.3% 63.8% 64.7% 65.0% 65.8% 64.0% 65.8% 63.0% 63.6% 64.3% 65.7%Tudou 56.2% 50.9% 49.4% 52.5% 54.9% 55.3% 55.5% 56.6% 55.5% 56.4% 54.4% 55.4% 55.6% 55.0%Sohu 22.8% 24.8% 26.4% 25.8% 27.7% 27.3% 28.7% 29.4% 26.8% 28.4% 29.6% 32.8% 35.6% 37.3%Qiyi 0.7% 0.9% 0.7% 8.8% 13.4% 14.1% 16.1% 16.0% 17.1% 22.8% 29.8%Ku6 36.3% 29.9% 29.3% 32.0% 36.3% 40.3% 39.2% 38.0% 34.9% 36.0% 37.2% 36.5% 36.4% 32.7%Sina 39.5% 33.5% 33.6% 35.0% 37.3% 35.0% 33.7% 36.1% 36.1% 38.0% 37.9% 35.1% 35.1% 36.1%Xunlei 41.5% 35.7% 35.1% 37.1% 39.9% 38.9% 37.7% 36.4% 35.1% 36.7% 32.7% 33.2% 38.5% 35.1%56 35.4% 30.8% 30.8% 32.8% 37.0% 35.7% 33.9% 34.7% 32.7% 35.3% 32.1% 33.6% 31.9% 31.1%PPTV 11.3% 13.2% 12.9% 10.4% 10.0% 14.8% 15.2% 15.1% 12.1% 13.3% 16.0% 16.6% 16.8% 13.5%CNTV 11.6% 13.5% 12.9% 14.3% 13.7% 23.6% 18.3% 16.3% 16.5% 18.5% 20.4% 17.9% 20.0% 21.5%PPS 16.7% 15.5% 13.2% 15.5% 15.8% 16.4% 17.5% 16.9% 15.3% 16.8% 17.0% 16.5% 18.0% 16.5%Six Rooms 13.4% 11.2% 9.9% 9.0% 9.6% 10.6% 10.8% 11.2% 8.8% 8.4% 8.6% 7.9% 8.1% 9.6%Joy.cn 15.2% 13.3% 14.0% 13.6% 15.6% 16.7% 15.9% 15.8% 15.6% 15.5% 11.1% 10.5% 11.9% 12.2%Letv 5.6% 7.4% 6.2% 6.2% 6.1% 5.7% 6.3% 9.5% 8.3% 8.0% 7.8% 8.6% 10.7% 12.5%Source: iResearch, Macquarie Research, April 2011 E-commerce (fast growing; steady competitive landscape) – 51% YoY growth in unique visitors; group buying is the new trend In Feb 2011, there were a total of 290.8mn online shoppers, up from 192.7mn a year earlier, +51% YoY. We highlight that the growth rate in unique visitors for ecommerce is higher than that for video, which may be counter-intuitive for some given all the attention placed on video by investors. Generally speaking, most of the leading ecommerce sites, such as Taobao and Dangdang, have largely maintained their penetration rates among online shoppers. Another general observation is that group buying sites have been embraced by online shoppers with top group buy sites such as Lashou and Meituan having reached double-digit penetration among internet shoppers in less than a year of being in operation. For Dangdang, despite intensifying competition in ecommerce area, the company has largely maintained its double-digit penetration rate.Fig 7 E-commerce website monthly unique visitors (‘m)E-commerce monthly unique visitors(m) 2010-01 2010-02 2010-03 2010-04 2010-05 2010-06 2010-07 2010-08 2010-09 2010-10 2010-11 2010-12 2011-01 2011-02Total 216.7 192.7 249.1 260.7 249.2 250.4 260.9 272.2 271.7 270.1 276.2 290.4 289.2 290.8Taobao (C2C) 151.7 127.6 174.9 188.9 184.2 182.9 190.3 200.0 202.1 199.6 211.8 220.1 217.9 205.1Taobao Mall (B2C) - - - - - - - - - - 92.2 107.8 103.1 87.9Taobao (Group buy) - - - - - - 22.6 32.3 26.0 31.3 52.3 76.2 75.6 67.0Paipai (C2C) 51.5 36.2 48.1 52.0 54.3 55.6 58.3 59.6 59.2 60.7 60.4 72.1 63.6 62.7Alibaba China (B2B) 51.9 34.7 55.7 56.0 54.9 67.8 67.4 75.3 76.1 82.0 73.4 70.6 47.3 49.1Laishou (Group buy) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 9.1 13.8 20.4 29.0 33.7 43.9 45.1 48.6360Buy (B2C) 20.7 17.0 25.9 28.1 26.6 33.1 35.2 38.2 37.1 36.1 34.6 41.9 39.4 35.6Meituan (Group buy) - - - - - 0.9 5.6 9.9 12.3 13.0 15.0 23.6 30.4 34.1Dangdang (B2C) 26.2 16.7 27.1 30.1 28.1 29.5 30.1 33.7 32.0 33.2 33.0 36.6 30.6 30.4Amazon China (B2C) 25.3 18.1 27.9 29.3 27.1 24.9 27.0 26.7 28.9 29.2 26.4 30.2 29.5 29.3Tencent (Group buy) - - - - - - 2.8 5.0 8.0 12.3 12.3 19.3 25.1 25.9Alibaba (B2B) 13.1 9.0 20.7 21.1 24.6 31.2 31.6 32.4 27.5 32.0 31.1 37.7 25.9 23.8Source: iResearch, Macquarie Research, April 201113 April 2011 4
  5. 5. Macquarie Research Internet Traffic TrackerFig 8 E-commerce website penetration rate (by monthly unique visitors)E-commerce penetration rate 2010-01 2010-02 2010-03 2010-04 2010-05 2010-06 2010-07 2010-08 2010-09 2010-10 2010-11 2010-12 2011-01 2011-02Taobao (C2C) 70.0% 66.2% 70.2% 72.5% 73.9% 73.1% 72.9% 73.5% 74.4% 73.9% 76.7% 75.8% 75.3% 70.5%Taobao Mall (B2C) 33.4% 37.1% 35.7% 30.2%Taobao (Group buy) 8.6% 11.9% 9.6% 11.6% 18.9% 26.2% 26.1% 23.0%Paipai (C2C) 23.8% 18.8% 19.3% 20.0% 21.8% 22.2% 22.3% 21.9% 21.8% 22.5% 21.9% 24.8% 22.0% 21.6%Alibaba China (B2B) 24.0% 18.0% 22.4% 21.5% 22.0% 27.1% 25.8% 27.7% 28.0% 30.3% 26.6% 24.3% 16.3% 16.9%Laishou (Group buy) 0.5% 3.5% 5.1% 7.5% 10.7% 12.2% 15.1% 15.6% 16.7%360Buy (B2C) 9.6% 8.8% 10.4% 10.8% 10.7% 13.2% 13.5% 14.0% 13.7% 13.4% 12.5% 14.4% 13.6% 12.2%Meituan (Group buy) 0.3% 2.1% 3.7% 4.5% 4.8% 5.4% 8.1% 10.5% 11.7%Dangdang (B2C) 12.1% 8.7% 10.9% 11.5% 11.3% 11.8% 11.5% 12.4% 11.8% 12.3% 11.9% 12.6% 10.6% 10.4%Amazon China (B2C) 11.7% 9.4% 11.2% 11.2% 10.9% 10.0% 10.4% 9.8% 10.6% 10.8% 9.6% 10.4% 10.2% 10.1%Tencent (Group buy) 1.1% 1.9% 3.0% 4.6% 4.5% 6.7% 8.7% 8.9%Alibaba (B2B) 6.0% 4.6% 8.3% 8.1% 9.9% 12.5% 12.1% 11.9% 10.1% 11.8% 11.3% 13.0% 8.9% 8.2%Source: iResearch, Macquarie Research, April 2011 Miniblog (hottest segment; probably to become more competitive) – battle continues on; SINA remains dominant In Feb, there were a total of 206mn miniblog monthly unique visitors in China, according to iResearch. We decided to use daily unique visitor stats for the miniblog segment as opposed to monthly unique visitor stats because of the rapidly changing market environment and significant difference in activeness of miniblog users on different sites. For example, both Sina and Tencent had over 100mn unique visitors in Feb, but Sina had 14.2mn daily unique visitors that month while Tencent had 8.7mn, suggesting that Sina’s miniblog users log on more often (on daily basis) than Tencent miniblog users. In terms of the penetration rate, Sina has broadly maintained its 50% penetration rate (ie half of China’s average daily miniblog users logged onto Sina’s Weibo) while Tencent and Sohu appear to be catching up to now hold about 30% and 15% penetration rate, respectively, while Baidu’s and Qihoo’s miniblog user base penetration has declined over the past year. Sina has the first mover advantage in the miniblog space and all top three players here are making significant investments in this hotly contested segment.Fig 9 Miniblog daily unique visitors (‘000)Miniblog daily unique visitors (000) 2010-03 2010-04 2010-05 2010-06 2010-07 2010-08 2010-09 2010-10 2010-11 2010-12 2011-01 2011-02Total 3,841 5,415 6,829 9,566 9,770 11,050 12,398 13,201 16,686 19,535 24,092 28,424Sina weibo 1,760 2,507 3,203 4,462 5,130 6,288 6,642 7,210 9,437 10,640 12,292 14,229Tencent miniblog 67 330 774 1,161 1,132 1,660 2,052 2,547 3,094 4,273 6,371 8,686Sohu miniblog 120 332 537 994 708 443 860 820 1,718 2,273 4,021 4,125Baidu miniblog 872 1,166 1,166 1,864 1,876 1,909 1,668 1,602 1,537 1,699 1,616 2,364Qihoo miniblog 966 980 1,047 1,065 1,013 1,084 1,343 1,248 1,367 1,311 1,175 1,235Netease miniblog 76 178 261 473 328 225 280 312 443 585 772 1,132iFeng miniblog - - - - - - 20 93 104 114 181 196Digu miniblog 103 78 94 115 73 68 47 51 56 69 82 107Twitter - - - - - - - - - - - 86Tongxue miniblog 111 101 109 88 73 79 239 102 56 47 43 51Zuosa miniblog 47 38 33 26 34 22 25 22 24 22 31 36Follow5 miniblog - 38 18 32 24 18 21 21 32 20 20 339911 miniblog 49 44 34 36 27 36 33 34 18 20 32 19Source: iResearch, Macquarie Research, April 201113 April 2011 5
  6. 6. Macquarie Research Internet Traffic TrackerFig 10 Miniblog penetration rate (by daily unique visitors)Miniblog penetration rate 2010-03 2010-04 2010-05 2010-06 2010-07 2010-08 2010-09 2010-10 2010-11 2010-12 2011-01 2011-02Sina weibo 45.8% 46.3% 46.9% 46.6% 52.5% 56.9% 53.6% 54.6% 56.6% 54.5% 51.0% 50.1%Tencent miniblog 1.7% 6.1% 11.3% 12.1% 11.6% 15.0% 16.6% 19.3% 18.5% 21.9% 26.4% 30.6%Sohu miniblog 3.1% 6.1% 7.9% 10.4% 7.2% 4.0% 6.9% 6.2% 10.3% 11.6% 16.7% 14.5%Baidu miniblog 22.7% 21.5% 17.1% 19.5% 19.2% 17.3% 13.5% 12.1% 9.2% 8.7% 6.7% 8.3%Qihoo miniblog 25.1% 18.1% 15.3% 11.1% 10.4% 9.8% 10.8% 9.5% 8.2% 6.7% 4.9% 4.3%Netease miniblog 2.0% 3.3% 3.8% 4.9% 3.4% 2.0% 2.3% 2.4% 2.7% 3.0% 3.2% 4.0%iFeng miniblog 0.2% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.8% 0.7%Digu miniblog 2.7% 1.4% 1.4% 1.2% 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.4%Twitter 0.3%Tongxue miniblog 2.9% 1.9% 1.6% 0.9% 0.7% 0.7% 1.9% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%Zuosa miniblog 1.2% 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%Follow5 miniblog 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%9911 miniblog 1.3% 0.8% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%Source: iResearch, Macquarie Research, April 2011 Social Networking (highly concentrated segment but not really growing) – It Is a two horse race, but neither horse is running very fast Despite all the fanfare, growth of user base of leading Chinese social networking sites has not been overly impressive, with total user growth of 18% YoY in Feb 2011, in line with total Chinese Internet user growth. Contrary to the experience in the West (ie Facebook), social networks have not been embraced by Chinese Internet users as widely. Broadly speaking, leading SNS site Renren’s monthly unique visitors have been flattish over the last 12 month while #2 player Kaixin has been seeing a decline in its monthly visitor count. There are many theories behind why Facebook-like social networks don’t seem to get the same traction in China. For the time being, we have decided to discount the monthly unique visitor stats for Tencent’s social networking offering as we believe iResearch or Tencent may have reclassified some of the Tencent traffic into Pengyou traffic as our on-the-ground checks suggested that not many people have used Tencent social networking sites.Fig 11 Social Network Services website monthly unique visitors (‘m)SNS monthly unique visitors (m) 2010-01 2010-02 2010-03 2010-04 2010-05 2010-06 2010-07 2010-08 2010-09 2010-10 2010-11 2010-12 2011-01 2011-02Total 209.3 185.5 226.8 234.1 214.3 212.1 216.8 226.1 218.3 219.1 219.8 221.8 229.8 217.9Tencent Pengyou - - - - - - - - - - - 37.2 134.3 135.2Renren 84.7 71.2 95.1 99.1 92.4 92.5 94.5 95.0 89.3 97.6 95.1 97.7 99.7 92.8Kaixin 49.2 44.1 64.4 65.1 47.3 45.2 47.7 46.8 42.2 41.2 39.5 35.7 38.3 39.051.com 29.5 21.4 26.4 27.2 26.3 22.9 25.7 27.1 24.9 25.7 24.6 23.9 28.2 31.0MySpace.cn 12.7 7.2 12.7 14.5 14.5 17.5 15.0 16.4 14.1 15.0 11.3 6.3 8.5 9.0Jiaxingquan - - - - - - - - - - - - 4.0 7.9China mobile - - - - - - - 9.1 10.5 10.1 9.4 9.8 6.6 6.3Sohu 20.9 19.2 17.2 12.8 11.3 7.2 6.6 10.6 7.0 4.4 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.5Facebook 3.9 3.2 3.3 4.3 4.0 3.7 3.5 4.0 3.3 3.6 3.0 3.9 4.5 4.2Niwota.com 3.3 2.0 2.1 1.7 2.3 2.6 3.3 3.7 3.1 2.5 2.1 1.6 1.7 1.8iPart.cn 2.2 2.1 3.0 2.9 2.7 2.7 3.0 2.9 3.2 2.8 2.2 1.9 3.6 0.8MySpace 1.4 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.8Source: iResearch, Macquarie Research, April 2011Fig 12 Social Network Services website penetration rate (monthly unique visitors)SNS penetration rate 2010-01 2010-02 2010-03 2010-04 2010-05 2010-06 2010-07 2010-08 2010-09 2010-10 2010-11 2010-12 2011-01 2011-02Tencent Pengyou 17% 58% 62%Renren 40% 38% 42% 42% 43% 44% 44% 42% 41% 45% 43% 44% 43% 43%Kaixin 24% 24% 28% 28% 22% 21% 22% 21% 19% 19% 18% 16% 17% 18%51.com 14% 12% 12% 12% 12% 11% 12% 12% 11% 12% 11% 11% 12% 14%MySpace.cn 6% 4% 6% 6% 7% 8% 7% 7% 6% 7% 5% 3% 4% 4%Jiaxingquan 2% 4%China mobile 4% 5% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3%Sohu 10% 10% 8% 5% 5% 3% 3% 5% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%Facebook 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% 2%Niwota.com 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%iPart.cn 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 0%MySpace 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%Source: iResearch, Macquarie Research, April 201113 April 2011 6
  7. 7. Macquarie Research Internet Traffic TrackerImportant disclosures: Recommendation definitions Volatility index definition* Financial definitions Macquarie - Australia/New Zealand This is calculated from the volatility of historical All "Adjusted" data items have had the following Outperform – return >3% in excess of benchmark return price movements. adjustments made: Neutral – return within 3% of benchmark return Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision for Underperform – return >3% below benchmark return Very high–highest risk – Stock should be catastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives & hedging, expected to move up or down 60–100% in a year IFRS impairments & IFRS interest expense Benchmark return is determined by long term nominal – investors should be aware this stock is highly Excluded: non recurring items, asset revals, property GDP growth plus 12 month forward market dividend speculative. revals, appraisal value uplift, preference dividends & yield minority interests Macquarie – Asia/Europe High – stock should be expected to move up or Outperform – expected return >+10% down at least 40–60% in a year – investors should EPS = adjusted net profit / efpowa* Neutral – expected return from -10% to +10% be aware this stock could be speculative. ROA = adjusted ebit / average total assets Underperform – expected return <-10% ROA Banks/Insurance = adjusted net profit /average Medium – stock should be expected to move up total assets Macquarie First South - South Africa or down at least 30–40% in a year. ROE = adjusted net profit / average shareholders funds Outperform – expected return >+10% Gross cashflow = adjusted net profit + depreciation Neutral – expected return from -10% to +10% Low–medium – stock should be expected to *equivalent fully paid ordinary weighted average Underperform – expected return <-10% move up or down at least 25–30% in a year. number of shares Macquarie - Canada Outperform – return >5% in excess of benchmark return Low – stock should be expected to move up or All Reported numbers for Australian/NZ listed stocks Neutral – return within 5% of benchmark return down at least 15–25% in a year. are modelled under IFRS (International Financial Underperform – return >5% below benchmark return * Applicable to Australian/NZ/Canada stocks only Reporting Standards). 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  9. 9. Asia ResearchHead of Equity Research Oil, Gas and Petrochemicals Transport & InfrastructureJohn O’Connell (Global Co – Head) (612) 8232 7544 Linda Huang (Hong Kong) (852) 3922 4068 Anderson Chow (China, Asia) (852) 3922 4773David Rickards (Global Co – Head) (44 20) 3037 4399 Jal Irani (India) (9122) 6653 3040 Janet Lewis (Asia, Japan) (813) 3512 7475Chris Hunt (Asia – Head) (852) 3922 1119 Polina Diyachkina (Japan) (813) 3512 7886 Wei Sim (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 3598Tim Smart (Asia – Deputy Head) (852) 3922 3565 Shawn Park (Korea) (822) 3705 8669 Chang Han Joo (Korea) (822) 3705 8511 Sunaina Dhanuka (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8993 Sunaina Dhanuka (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8993Automobiles/Auto Parts Trevor Buchinski (Thailand) (662) 694 7829 UtilitiesLeah Jiang (China) (8621) 2412 9020 Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Adam Worthington (Asia) (852) 3922 4626Linda Huang (Hong Kong) (852) 3922 4068Clive Wiggins (Japan) (813) 3512 7856 Jonathan Hsu (Hong Kong) (852) 3922 4625 Carol Cao (China, 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(China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 1401 Thomson: www.thomson.com/financial Riaz Hyder (Indonesia) (6221) 2598 8486 Reuters: www.knowledge.reuters.comJiong Shao (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 3566 Nathan Ramler (Japan) (813) 3512 7875 Bloomberg: MAC GOSteve Zhang (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 3578 Prem Jearajasingam (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8989 Factset: http://www.factset.com/home.aspxPrem Jearajasingam (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8989 Joseph Quinn (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7519 CapitalIQ www.capitaliq.comAlex Pomento (Philippines) (632) 857 0899 Best Waiyanont (Thailand) (662) 694 7993 TheMarkets.com www.themarkets.com Email macresearch@macquarie.com for accessAsia SalesRegional Heads of Sales Regional Heads of Sales cont’d Sales Trading cont’dRobin Black (Asia) (852) 3922 2074 Miki Edelman (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7580 Chris Reale (New York) (1 212) 231 2555Chris Gray (ASEAN) (65) 6601 0288 Angus Kent (Thailand) (662) 694 7601 Marc Rosa (New York) (1 212) 231 2555Peter Slater (Boston) (1 617) 598 2502 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