Palestra "Technology Trends To Watch In 2012 and beyond"

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Palestra ministrada no Floripa TICs Fórum 2012 sobre "Technology Trends To Watch In 2012 and beyond".

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Palestra "Technology Trends To Watch In 2012 and beyond"

  1. 1. Cezar TaurionExecutivo de Novas Tecnologias/Technical EvangelistTechnology Trends To Watch In 2012 andbeyond © 2012 IBM Corporation
  2. 2. A New Model for the Enterprise in a Flat World Globally Integrated Enterprise Globalization Internet Trade Deregulation Commoditization• Uncertain macroeconomic indicators in developed economies/ Unstable European economic conditions• Developing economies now contribute more to world economic growth than developed economies.• Success of China’s economy becoming more crucial• Demographic shifts continue as people live longer• Risks are everywhere, resulting in unpredictability 2 © 2012 IBM Corporation
  3. 3. Vivemos uma rápida evolução da internet3 © 2012 IBM Corporation
  4. 4. The 3rd generation of computing platform, the 3rd phase of the Internet, and the explosion of information are colliding to form a perfect storm of disruption and transformation Phases of the Inter net Internet Web 2.0 Web Mobi 3 . 0 (C lo le, Socia ud, l) 1964 1981 1994 2003 2008 2012 2020-2 s, tphone s (Smar obile Device Generations of M , etc) Computing Tablets Platforms Ser ver /PC Client ame Mainfr Amount of Data Collected and Stored4 © 2012 IBM Corporation
  5. 5. 2012 Technology Trends To Watch 1. Cloud Computing 2. Social Business 3. Mobile Computing/Consumerization of IT 4. Big Data/Analytics5 © 2012 IBM Corporation
  6. 6. A cloud computing primer – your 60 second guide A new model of IT Key ingredients: delivery and •elasticity Start consumption… …inspired by internet •PAYG services in the •on-demand self-service consumer space Analogies - electricity Evolutionary, not A “confluence of generation revolutionary – time technologies” – and The sharing, hosting, ASP virtualization, SOA, Model-T Ford multi-tennancy Variants – public, Get to Near-term adoption private, hybrid, know overstated, long-term community, ? the impact underestimated – Finish G-cloud add to Cloud all bets are off ! confusion stack 6 © 2012 IBM Corporation
  7. 7. Cloud Service Models Financials CRM/ERP/HR Industry Specific Collaboration Applications Software/ Application-as-a-Service Web 2.0 Applications Development Middleware Tools Runtime Database Desktop Platform-as-a-Service Data Center Servers Networking Storage Fabric Consolidated, standardised, virtualised, shared, dynamically provisioned, automated Infrastructure-as-a-Service7 © 2012 IBM Corporation
  8. 8. A range of deployment options Private Hybrid Public IT capabilities are provided Internal and external IT activities / “as a service,” over an service delivery functions are intranet, within the enterprise methods are provided “as a and behind the firewall integrated service,” over the Internet Enterprise Users Enterprise Enterprise Enterprise data center data center A B A B Private cloud Managed Hosted private Member cloud Public cloud private cloud cloud services services Private Third-party operated Third-party owned and Mix of shared and dedicated Shared resources On client premises Client owned operated resources Elastic scaling Client runs/ manages Mission critical Standardization Shared facility and staff Pay as you go Packaged applications Centralization Virtual private network (VPN) Public Internet Security access High compliancy Internal network Subscription or membership Internal network based8 © 2012 IBM Corporation
  9. 9. Cloud computing is more than the sum of the parts… Cloud Computing Virtualization + Standardization + Automation + Self ServiceWith With With With Enables flexibility Simplification Low human involvement User in control Increase utilization Few configurations Rapid deployment & mgt Cost and usage choices Energy efficient Enables automation Repeatable configuration Increased visibility Soft configuration Easier support Improves compliance IT/Business alignment Infrastructure abstractionWithout Without Without Without Physically constrained Physically constrained Manually intensive Dependency of availability of data centre staff Capital intensive Many configurations Skill dependent Lack of awareness Hard configuration Error prone Linked to PO process Costly9 © 2012 IBM Corporation
  10. 10. Cloud is widely recognized as an increasingly important technology;adoption is expected to accelerate rapidly in the coming years What is Your Organization’s Level of The Global Cloud Computing Market is Cloud Adoption? Forecast to Grow 22% per year through 2020 % of Respondents 91% $250B $241B Piloting 21% 72% $200B $150B Adopting $150B 38% 28% +33% $100B Substantially 21% Implemented $50B 41% +215% $41B 13% $0B Today 3 yrs 2011 2015 2020 Source: Sizing the cloud, Forrester Research, Inc., April 21, 2011 Nearly half (48%) of CIOs surveyed evaluate cloud options first, over traditional IT approaches, before making any new IT investmentsSource: (1) 2011 joint IBV/EIU Cloud-enabled Business Model Survey of 572 business & IT leaders; Q4. Which of the following most accurately describes your organisation’s level ofcloud technology adoption today and which do you expect will best describe it in three years?Sizing the cloud , Forrester Research, April 21, 2011; http://www.cio.com/article/684338/Survey_CIOs_Are_Putting_the_Cloud_First10 © 2012 IBM Corporation
  11. 11. Today, at least two thirds of companies of all sizes are activelyeither experimenting with or implementing cloud What is Your Organization’s Level of Cloud Adoption? % of Respondents; Today 82% 76% 67% 43% Piloting 44% 32% 21% Adopting 22% 34% 14% 10% Substantially 5% Implemented <$1B $1B - $20B >$20B Company Annual RevenuesSource: (1) 2011 joint IBV/EIU Cloud-enabled Business Model Survey of 572 business & IT leaders, Q4, n=36311 © 2012 IBM Corporation
  12. 12. IT and Business are attracted to cloud for different reasons. IT is drawn to cloud’s cost, efficiency and control… of CIOs plan to use cloud— up from 33% two years ago. Transformation Efficiency of business executives believe cloud enables business transformation and leaner, faster, more agile processes. …while business users are drawn to cloud’s simplified, self-service experience and new service capabilities. 2011 IBM CIO Study, London School of Economics, December 201012 © 2012 IBM Corporation
  13. 13. IT benefits from Cloud Computing are real Value delivered From traditional To cloud Change management Months Days or hours Test provisioning Weeks 20 minutes Install database 1 day 12 minutes Install of operating system 1 day 30–60 minutes Provisioning environment ▄ 51% cost savings Design and deploy business applications Months Days/Weeks “Our commitment to informed decision making led us to consider private cloud delivery of Cognos via System z, which is the enabling foundation that makes possible +$20M savings over 5 years.” – IBM Office of the CIO © 2012 IBM Corporation
  14. 14. There are six typical steps to getting started with Cloud “IBM Cloud Assessment Workshop” 1 2 3 Understand Strategic Analyze Workloads Determine Delivery Direction Models High IT Provider Relationship Profile E-Mail, Software Enterprise Provider researches, Collaboration Development recommends and implements Enabler technology to enable quantum leap in business capability Data Provider works with others to develop a Test and Pre- Partner service and provide resources/skills Intensive Production Trad B e n e f it necessary to support the service Processing Provider of a quality service at a cost equal to or IT Private Public Utility lower than the competition Commodity Provider of an adequate service at a cost lower Hybrid than the competition Database ERP Cost High 4 5 6 Analyze Infrastructure Assess Risks Build Roadmaps Gaps Determine ROI 01. IT Host Resources Bus iness Arc hit ect ure Provide a baseline of agreement by D oc ument busines s directi ons and I T’s ali gnment wit h t hem, Devel op and implement enterprise-wide Alignment educating all stakeholders on t he business architecture initiatives A rc hi te c tur e ac ross t he ent erprise En ter pri s e fundamentals of Ent erprise Archi tec ture 03. IT Storage Resources Informat ion Sys tems Architecture As sess t he existi ng IS A rchitecture f or a select ed set of LOBs Dev elop an overall IS enterpris e archit ec ture framework t o guide the enterpri se Develop and execut e an IS Architecture roadmap ac ross the ent erprise 04. IT Network Resources Pilot Metadata int egration with key t ools and Document business gl oss ary into met adata M an ag em e nt M a s te r D a ta Metadata Develop met adat a t ec hnical st rategy applications repos itory for s ome LOBs 02. IT Distributed Resources Est ablish a cros s-f unctional I nformation Define and document common semant ics D ata Model Establi sh data entit y naming s tandards (business glos sary) across LOBs f or some Archi tec ture (D at a Adminis tration) t eam s ubjec t areas Enterprise Extend the inf ormation integration Integrate informat ion transf ormation Exploratory Departmental Exclusive Open I nformation Info rm ati on Define t he informati on integration In teg ra tion architecture across the with common met adat a and data Integration Transformation architec ture organization & tec hnol ogies cl eans ing serv ices Scope of services Extend the Informat ion Integrat ion Optimize data & c ontent Int egrate data plac ement with the I nf ormation Plac ement Identify required Develop roadmaps & Structure Architecture f or placement & s truct ure optimization pl acement and s truct ure across all LOBs & technology silos I nf ormation Lif ecy cle Management implementation Assess current state Determine future state capabilities and initiatives Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 © 2012 IBM Corporation
  15. 15. Segmentação do portfolio em níveis de criticidade Yes A maioria dos clientes possuem nível de Nivel 3 Nivel 1 criticidade 4 e relativamente poucas aplicações Estratégia em nível 1; Começe migrando suas aplicações do nível 4 Nivel 4 Nivel 2 para o ambiente de Cloud movendo primeiro as aplicações de menor risco; No Utilize a expertise adquirida no primeiro momento No Yes para migrar aplicações de níveis mais Criticidade estratégicos. Nível 4 Nível 3 Nível 2 Nível 1 Classe da Aplicação Não estratégica ou crítica Estratégica mas não crítica Alta criticidade Chave - Mais crítica Distribuição 55% 20% 20% 5% Disponibilidade Menor que Médio Alto Muito Alto 95% 95-98.5% 98.5-99.7% Perfil de dados Non-sensitive or public Apenas uso interno Confidencial da empresa Informações pessoais Suporte Melhor suporte Horas de Negócios 24*7 24*7 Monitoração Sem monitoração Servidor básico Infraestrutura Nível de Aplicação © 2012 IBM Corporation
  16. 16. Portfolio IBM Analytics Colaboração/ Desenvolvimento Desktop e Infra-estrutura Business Monitoração / e Teste Dispositivos (compute / storage Services Segurança / BPM / Integração) Modelo de Serviço Software como Serviço SaaS Lotus Live/ Tivoli Live/ IBM Cloud Service Blueworks Live/ Rational Provider PlatformPlataforma como Serviço PaaS Smart Analytics System Powered by Infosphere Security Services / Blueworks Live / Smart Business Development and Smart Business Server Cloud / WebSphere IBM Cloud Service Networking Test Cloud Desktop Cloud Cloudburst / Cast Iron Provider Platform Infra como Serviço IaaS Smart Analytics Accelerator IBM Managed IBM Smart Cloud Smart Business IBM Cloud Quick Start / Server / IBM Cloud Service Security Services Enterprise Desktop Cloud Storage Powered by Infosphere Provider Platform e mais… Consultoria, Workshops, Arquitetura de Referência para desenvolvimento Cloud2012 IBM Corporation © Computing
  17. 17. 2012 Technology Trends To Watch 1. Cloud Computing 2. Social Business 3. Mobile Computing/Consumerization of IT 4. Big Data/Analytics17 © 2012 IBM Corporation
  18. 18. © 2012 IBM Corporation
  19. 19. O que acontece na Internet em apenas 1 minuto!19 © 2012 IBM Corporation
  20. 20. 20 © 2012 IBM Corporation
  21. 21. E se o Facebook fosse um país?200 mi 800mi © 2012 IBM Corporation
  22. 22. Crescimento das Midias Sociais % of Time Spent, Worldwide Social Networks Facebook, YouTube Informational / Services Yahoo, MSN, Google Yahoo MSN Google YouTube Facebook22 © 2012 IBM Corporation
  23. 23. © 2012 IBM Corporation
  24. 24. 2009 English gets 1.000.000 words on Wednesday, site says June 10, 2009 -- Updated 1328 GMT (2128 HKT) Which is the New English words real Web 2.0: the second generation of the world? Internet n00b: a new or inexperienced user, usually with technology Jai Ho: an exclamation of victory, from Hindi slumdog: an unkind term for a person who lives in a slum cloud computing: services delivered via the Internet carbon neutral: an activity that doesnt produce heat-trapping carbon emissionsSource: Global Language Monitor june 2009 24 © 2012 IBM Corporation
  25. 25. 25 © 2012 IBM Corporation
  26. 26. Quem é esta geração digital? Usam tecnologias digitais no seu dia a dia e esperam usá-las no trabalho. São early adopters por natureza. Entram no mundo online cada vez mais cedo... usam a Internet como laboratório social, para testar limites do relacionamento. Vivem em ritmo cada vez mais acelerado e são multitarefas (usam celular, MP3, PC...tudo ao mesmo tempo!)26 © 2012 IBM Corporation
  27. 27. 27 © 2012 IBM Corporation
  28. 28. Social Business - Social collaboration is changing the way businessis being conductedDefined “A Social Business isnt just a company that has a Facebook page and a Twitter account. A Social Business is one that embraces and cultivates a spirit of collaboration and community throughout its organization—both internally and externally.” – IBM“With 1.2 billion people on social networks, 20 percent ofthe world’s population, social computing is in its nextphase. IT leaders must immediately incorporate socialsoftware capabilities throughout their enterprisesystems.” – Gartner“2011 has seen rapid expansion of business change thatis being driven by the social customer, empoweredemployees, and a convergence of new technicalcapabilities. Businesses are deploying and using newsocial tools at an ever-increasing pace” – IDC“New mass collaboration capabilities are irreversiblyredefining what it means to be a highly productiveorganization” – Gartner28 © 2012 IBM Corporation
  29. 29. 29 © 2012 IBM Corporation
  30. 30. Mobile explosion “By 2013, mobile phones will overtake PCs as the most common Web access device worldwide” Source: Gartner Highlights Key Predictions for IT Organizations and Users in 2010 and Beyond: http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=1278413 Researchers reported that time spent on apps began to outpace time spent on the desktop or mobile Web BY 2015 mobile application development projects targeting smartphones/tablets will outnumber native PC projects by a ratio of 4-130 © 2012 IBM Corporation
  31. 31. 31 © 2012 IBM Corporation
  32. 32. UMA NOVA GERAÇÃO © 2012 IBM Corporation
  33. 33. UMA NOVA FAMÍLIA A NOVA CASA O NOVO PAI A NOVA MÃE O NOVO FILHO © 2012 IBM Corporation
  34. 34. UM NOVO AMBIENTE DE TRABALHO A NOVA ORGANIZAÇÃO O NOVO CHEFE O NOVO ESCRITÓRIO A GLOBALIZAÇÃO © 2012 IBM Corporation
  35. 35. © 2012 IBM Corporation
  36. 36. Mobile Computing will impact all business processes, requiring newapplication solutions written just for mobileNew Strategies / Solutions Needed “Second generation mobile strategies differ considerably from those of the first generation. They must be multichannel, part of your holistic digital strategy, and include innovative mobile-only capabilities.” – Gartner “Mobile business is the number one IT issue pre-occupying the minds of IT professionals in Asia/Pacific, according to IDCs CIO Innovation Survey 2011. ” – IDC “By 2015, mobile Web technologies will have advanced sufficiently, so that half the applications that would be written as native apps in 2011 will instead be delivered as Web apps. ” – Gartner IBM 2011 Tech Trends Report 36 © 2012 IBM Corporation
  37. 37. The Consumerization trend is all about employees wanting to use thesame technologies for business as they use in their personal lives. It’s more than “Bring Your Own Device” Technologies “The consumerization of IT—the influence that personal devices, Impacted by the app store paradigm, gaming, social tools and more have on Consumerization the expectations of employees and customers for workplace tools and innovation—is on a trajectory of blazing growth.” – IDG • Tablets Press Release • Smartphones • App Stores • 4G “Employees are behaving more like consumers, demanding a • Social Media wider choice of devices, exploiting consumer devices and • Social Business applications from app stores, and adopting new strategies such • Gaming as “bring your own” IT. As a result, the distinctions between a • Desktop Virtualization persons role as an employee and as a consumer are more • Cloud Services blurred than ever. ” – Gartner • Unified Communications • Data Access • File Sharing “You can blame the iPhone, Salesforce.com, and Facebook, but the truth is that business itself has driven the shift to employee-directed tech” – InfoWorld37 © 2012 IBM Corporation
  38. 38. 2012 Technology Trends To Watch 1. Cloud Computing 2. Social Business 3. Mobile Computing/Consumerization of IT 4. Big Data/Analytics38 © 2012 IBM Corporation
  39. 39. Competing on Analytics with Big data is big news39 © 2012 IBM Corporation
  40. 40. Volume of Digital Data Every day, 15 petabytes of new information are being generated. This is 8x more than the information in all U.S. libraries.40 © 2012 IBM Corporation
  41. 41. Variety of InformationToday, 80% of new data growth is unstructuredcontent, generated largely by email, withincreasing contribution by documents, images,and video and audio38% of email archiving decisions receive inputfrom a C-level executive and 23% fromlegal/compliance professional41 © 2012 IBM Corporation
  42. 42. The Big Data trend presents a huge challenge (and opportunity) forInformation Management professionalsCharacteristics of Big Data “Variety – Big data extends beyond structured data, including unstructured data of all varieties: text, audio, video, click streams, log files and more. Velocity – Often time-sensitive, big data must be used as it is streaming in to the enterprise in order to maximize its value to the business. Volume – Big data comes in one size: large. Enterprises are awash with data, easily amassing terabytes and even petabytes of information.” – IBMA New Era of Information Management “Clearly, the big data revolution is fostering a powerful new type of data science. Having more comprehensive data sets at our disposal will enable more fine-grained long-tail analysis, microsegmentation, next best action, customer experience optimization, and digital marketing applications” – Forrester “The ideal enterprise data warehouse has been envisaged as a centralized repository for 25 years, but the time has come for a new type of warehouse to handle "big data." This "logical data warehouse" demands radical realignment of practices and a hybrid architecture of repositories and services” – Gartner 42 © 2012 IBM Corporation
  43. 43. New “Big Data” Brings New Opportunities, Requires New Analytics Exa Homeland Security 600,000 records/sec, 50B/day Up to 10,000 1-2 ms/decision Times 320TB for Deep Analytics Peta larger Data Scale Telco Promotions Tera 100,000 records/sec, 6B/day Data at Rest 10 ms/decisionData Scale 270TB for Deep Analytics Giga DeepQA 100s GB for Deep Analytics Traditional Data 3 sec/decision Mega Warehouse and Business Intelligence Up to 10,000 Data in Motion times faster Smart Traffic 250K GPS probes/sec Kilo 630K segments/sec yr mo wk day hr min sec … ms µs 2 ms/decision, 4K vehicles Occasional Frequent Real-time Decision Frequency © 2012 IBM Corporation
  44. 44. Successful implementation of analytics capabilities provide valueand can help companies create a competitive advantage How Organizations Use Analytics Analytics & Competitive Advantage Source: The New Intelligent Enterprise, a joint MIT Sloan Management Review and IBM Institute of Business Value analytics research partnership. Copyright © Massachusetts Institute of Technology 2011. “Leaders of the smartest organizations have moved past “overwhelmed” and IBM 2011 Tech Trends Report are already capitalizing on increased information richness and analytics to gain measurable competitive advantage.” – MIT 44 © 2012 IBM Corporation
  45. 45. Analytics is a major trend that is impacting all business processesand transforming the way decisions are madeTrends in Analytics Types of Analytics Source: Forrester From To Offline / Back office Embedded / Realtime Detailed Reports Dashboards Historical Predictive Structured Unstructured Behind Firewall Cloud / Mobile “In 2011 and 2012, analytics will increasingly focus on decisions and collaboration. The new step is to provide simulation, prediction, optimization and other anlytics, not simply information, to empower even more decision flexibility at the time and place of every business process action.” - Gartner “What is becoming clearer is that the real value from Big Data will be derived from the high-end analytics, predominantly using data mining, statistics, optimization and forecasting type of capabilities to proactively turn this data into intelligence to drive business benefits and better decision making capabilities” – IDC 45 © 2012 IBM Corporation
  46. 46. Traditional approaches are broken: Big data overwhelms traditional solutions46 © 2012 IBM Corporation
  47. 47. Let’s simplify this mess …47 © 2012 IBM Corporation
  48. 48. … and bring analytics into the warehouse48 © 2012 IBM Corporation
  49. 49. What is an Appliance? Dedicated device Optimized for purpose Complete solution Standard interfaces Easy installation Easy operation Easy management Easy support Low cost49 © 2012 IBM Corporation
  50. 50. 50 © 2012 IBM Corporation
  51. 51. 51 © 2012 IBM Corporation
  52. 52. Mensagens Finais © 2012 IBM Corporation
  53. 53. IT Strategy for the next decade: an evolution of today‘s focus topics IT Service Provider “IT as a function of the business“ Data ... Management SOA Service Appliances Big Data Managementon demand Virtualization Cloud Analytics Consolidation Mobility Collaboration Automation Cost Pressure Operational Excellence Service Quality Open Source Cyber Crime Social Media Data Center Optimization Prevention IT Security Smart Devices ...53 © 2012 IBM Corporation
  54. 54. Pulling it All Together: The Technology Frontiers Computing Everywhere Natural Interfaces New Computing and in Everything and Connectivity Paradigms In Us Bio-Inspired Quantum Touching Computation Computing Us Near re Us Nature Biology tu Bio-electronic Work and Fu Devices Leisure Far From Us Sensory Computing Neuromorphic and (voice, movement, natural sensing, etc) Cognitive Computing Sensory Devices t en Computing without Programming Embedded Non Von Neumann Architectures es Touch + Pr Smarter Era Computing (The Next Frontier) Mobiles Von Neumann Architectures Fetch-> Decode -> Execute PCs/Tablets Keyboard Mobile Computing Era (Current Dominant Entry Paradigm) Servers54 © 2012 IBM Corporation 54
  55. 55. Pulling it All Together: The Technology Frontiers Computing Everywhere Natural Interfaces New Computing and in Everything and Connectivity Paradigms In Us Bio-Inspired Quantum Touching Computation Computing Us Near re Us Nature Biology tu Bio-electronic Work and Fu Devices Leisure Far From Us Sensory Computing Neuromorphic and (voice, movement, natural sensing, etc) Cognitive Computing Sensory Devices IT Becomes Invisible t Cognitive IT en Computing without a Program Embedded Non Von Neumann Architectures es Touch + Pr Smarter Era Computing (The Next Frontier) Mobiles Von Neumann Architectures Fetch-> Decode -> Execute PCs/Tablets Keyboard Mobile Computing Era (Current Dominant Entry Paradigm) Servers55 © 2012 IBM Corporation 55
  56. 56. Futuro se torna passado rapidamente! © 2012 IBM Corporation
  57. 57. Cezar Taurion ctaurion@br.ibm.com www.ibm.com/developerworks/blogs/page/ctaurion www.computingonclouds.wordpress.com www.debatendobigdata.wordpress.com @ctaurion Facebook, Linkedin, BranchOut Obrigado pela Atenção, 2012 © 2012 IBM Corporation

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