Retail and
the City
The shape of cities to come
Alexander Grünsteidl
alexander@method.com
digitalwellbeinglabs.com
twitter...
I hate shopping !
Method 2013
I don't like going shopping, strolling till my feet hurt, squeezing through people on busy s...
I love it !
Method 2013
I love shopping, it’s part of our culture, it is where our communities meet. Opportunity for surpr...
my street
Method 2013
This is my street. Not a pretty image, not the glamour of regent street or the editorialised and pol...
a brief history of
commerce
and the city
Method 2013
So how did this all start; “a brief history of commerce and the city”
Markets
Cities
Future Retail

2013

When mankind evolved from hunter gatherers to form an agrarian society, the surplus fr...
Method 2013
Markets appeared on the crossroads, at intersections of
communities.
Shopping
Streets
Future Retail

2013

Along the supply roads to the markets more permanent shops appeared and cities start...
Industrial
Society
Future Retail

2013

This remained the same for many millennia when the industrial revolution sparked n...
Future Retail

2013

Method 2013

Products like woven textiles were produced in long rolls, transported to a remote store ...
Shop
Window
Method 2013
Shopping windows appeared allowing shoppers to discover the wealth and variety of products churned...
Department
Store

Department
Store
Future Retail

Soon followed by department stores which aggregate, editorialise and pre...
Method 2013
Railroads allowed economies of scale to emerge, enabled by linking cities and its people together over vast di...
Mail order
catalog
Method 2013
With the invention of the mail order catalog people were for the first time able to browse a...
Method 2013
With the arrival of affordable cars, mobility became
democratised.
Method 2013
... but the old city centres were not designed for cars and soon shops appeared on the periphery, turning the ...
Shopping
mall
Future Retail

2013

Shopping malls provided climate controlled indoor shopping destinations away from home,...
Overwhelming Choices

Method 2013
The accumulation of goods in gigantic retail facilities leading to an overwhelming amoun...
Method 2013
We kept our hunter gatherer instinct, browsing for new glamorous items whilst window shopping.
With the arriva...
iPhone
10:15 PM

More

Method 2013
Soon we can point google goggles at any product around us to find best prices, compariso...
We are turning any location into a store

Method 2013

In fact we can do this already with service like Shazam. Identifyin...
Method 2013
Shopping has become fragmented, without requiring any centralised retail places
anymore.
changing
infrastructures
lead to changing
roles of retail
Method 2013
We have seen that changing infrastructures lead to c...
indicators
what changes retail?

Method 2013
So what changes retail?
the last click

1
Method 2013

1. The last click happens when people encounter products on the high street or when browsin...
fitting fee

Method 2013
Some retailers start asking for fitting fees, for example $25 australian dollar to try these ski bo...
As consumption behaviours are
changing, only in-person services
including hospitality, can survive.
Niche offers that can ...
Businesses on the high street

purchase
transactions

60% -

eating &
drinking
entertainment
grooming

40% +
Method 2013

...
total
convergence

2
Method 2013

2.Total Convergence from electro-mechanical via electronic to computational products.
maturation of technologies
audio quality

mature

display resolution

compete

computing power
broadband

develop

mobilit...
Method 2013
Instead software applications representing different features accumulate on multifunctional devices leading to...
Multimedia Player
YM-P1 Samsung

Sat-Nav
TomTom

Tablet PC
HP Compaq 2710p

MP3 Player
iRiver Clix2

Weather Station Orego...
... to the point, that a newspaper advertisement by John Lewis a few years back, showed a collection of similar black TV s...
changing
production
& supply chain

3
Method 2013

3. Another factor has been the rapidly changing production and supply c...
fashion was necessary
... but not anymore

Method 2013
fashion was necessary
... but not anymore.
Method 2013
Look around you. We now look all the same we did ten even fifteen years ago. A picture taken now compared to a ...
Alignment of development
and production process to
minimise risk
year 1

year 2

year 3

year 4

colour
trend

textile
pri...
Now risk is mitigated by
eclectic recombination
of styles.
Method 2013
Now risk is mitigated by eclectic recombination of ...
MR. GUGU
& MISS GO
£25

HYPE.
£25

YrStore.
£45.

Method 2013
... As can be seen in this example from three different stor...
plenty of choice
with
little variation
Method 2013
We live in a world with plenty of choice and with little variation
From ownership
to access.

4

From products
to services and
collaborative consumption
Method 2013
From ownership to access...
We’ve moved into the experience economy
Retail
as we know it

Experiences

Services

Goods

Commodities

Starbucks

Brewed...
Once products don’t differentiate enough
to provide status, then the value of
ownership reduces.
Seamless access and time ...
Method 2013
Examples are car sharing services like ZipCar, room sharing with AirBnB and tool sharing with Ecomodo.
As consumption behaviours are
changing, only in-person services
including hospitality, can survive.
Niche offers that can ...
Businesses on the high street

purchase
transactions

60% -

eating &
drinking
entertainment
grooming

40% +
Method 2013

...
economic pressure
changes
shopping patterns

5
Method 2013

economic pressure changes shopping patterns : economic pressur...
The weekly shopping trip is
becoming too expensive.
People are fed up with traffic
jams and cost of transport.

Method 2013...
Top up shopping

Method 2013
New shopping patterns emerged and the supermarket chains were quick to react, offering Top Up...
Markets and trading places
shape our cities.
If the requirements for these
are changing, how will
changing business models...
a tale of
three cities
Method 2013
I am going to tell you the story of three cities, each driven by a distinct technology ...
the
oneline
city

1
Method 2013

1. the Oneline
City
Hikikomori

Method 2013
The One-Line City is characterised by people living solitary lives in front of computers at home; ...
online ecommerce is still growing
online entertainment is growing
single households are spreading
cost of mobility is incr...
Tipping point
Even a small reduction in
transactions, around 10%, is
often enough to close many
independent shops on the h...
Tipping point
Improved TeleConferencing
technologies and increasing cost
of international business travel will
lead to col...
the google glass world
Sight : Israeli filmmakers Eran May-raz and Daniel Lazo
http://vimeo.com/46304267

Method 2013
This ...
the google glass world

Method 2013
People start wearing implanted ‘Sight’ lenses that overlay the world with a both augme...
the google glass world

Method 2013
Most aspects of daily life including preparing meals and wearing clothes is gamified.
Method 2013
People live in empty spaces where all furnishings, decorations and media are superimposed on blank surfaces.
the google glass world

Method 2013
Facebook like information provides a virtual aura of continuous information about peop...
we live in an intimately
connected world
Method 2013
We live in an intimately connected world.
Method 2013
We foster online and virtual relationships, with virtual gifts from a virtual store, representing new percepti...
people eat more and more
pre-cooked meals
PBS The New York pizza delivery path of one Domino’s employee
Method 2013
People...
UBER & GOOGLE

Method 2013
Recently Google bought UBER, a taxi service similar to Hailo. They aim to improve the courier s...
We may start producing some
products on demand at home.
We may start producing some products on demand at
home.

Method 20...
make money online?
- Sell Stock Photography
- Tweet For Sponsors
- Blog for Ad Revenues
- Sell Affiliate Products
- Write a...
energy is created and used where it
is most cost effective and lowest
environmental impact.
Method 2013
Energy is created ...
the Oneline City

Method 2013
The model of the OneLine city is build around a backbone of a single supply corridor to indi...
history has shown that cities
formed around organically grown
infrastructures, creating optimal
cost effective connections...
Slime mould
Emergent
Infrastructures

Method 2013
An experiment with Slime Mould demonstrates that a network of mould grow...
the Oneline City

Method 2013
The online city will be characterised by corridors connecting distribution hubs, proximity t...
Road Town
1910

Method 2013
Examples of linear cities, like Road Town by Edgar Chambless, appeared in the early twentieth ...
Method 2013
Similar linear ideas appeared in the sixties and seventies when cars dominated the cities
linear city concepts are mostly based
on providing more space for nature
to recover.
Method 2013
These original concepts a...
the Oneline City

Method 2013
I believe these city structures could emerge, but these will rather be commercially driven, ...
the
hyper-local
city

2
Method 2013

2. the Hyper Local City
online social networking tools
improve communication
on a local level.
Local enterprises can reach out,
advertise and crea...
Coffee shops everywhere

communities require places to meet

Method 2013
An online search shows clusters of results across...
community meeting places

Method 2013
Provide facilities for in this example Bicycle communities to meet and exchange news...
Alternative forms
hospitality
Bike repair + cafe
Bookstore + cafe
Bookstore + restaurant
Fashion + bar
Laundry + cafe
Bank...
Local Currencies
to incentivise local economies

Method 2013
Local currencies offer a way to keep money inside communities...
Local Businesses and Retail
with low start up costs
Pop-Up Mall
Future Retail

2013

Method 2013

Innovative low-cost-of-e...
Farmers Markets Everywhere

Method 2013
Farmers markets appear in neighbourhoods.
local retailers
find low cost places to trade

Method 2013
There are now more farmers markets than Wallmarts in the
USA
connecting communities
with their resources

Method 2013
It’s a growing trend of communities to connect with fresh and loc...
requires lots of space locally
in form of vertically stacked farms

©Caliber Biotherapeutics and EEA Consulting Engineers
...
Vertical Livestock Farming
PigCity
mvrdv.nl
Method 2013
MVRDV, a Dutch architectural practice, took this idea to the next ...
Urban energy generation
Wind & Solar Farms

Method 2013
There is a drive for community generated energy from city based wi...
the Hyper Local City

everyone ...
is a producer of goods
offers services
is a trader
Method 2013
In the Hyper Local City ...
Circular
Urban
Utopias
Method 2013
Circular urbanities have been part of Utopian dreams since Thomas Moore, or Auroville p...
the Hyper Local City

Method 2013
The Hyper Local City is a fragmented city of self sufficient communities, with little nee...
the
aspirational
city

3
Method 2013

3. the Aspirational City
The last city is not a future city, but the city we already...
Broadcast media, like Radio and
TV and now the Internet, connect
people across vast distances
leading to global cultures.
...
Global Tribes

Method 2013
Tribes are made of individuals with almost the same behaviours, desires and lifestyle
needs.
Global Life Styles

Method 2013
These tribes stay in touch through social media like Facebook and Pinterest, reinforcing t...
Identical Shopping Malls
offer a limited set of global brands

Method 2013
We see identical shops around the world in airp...
Off-the-shelf shopping centres
offer places for shared experiences

Method 2013
For example the Westfield shopping malls ar...
Nespresso Club

Brand Experience Communities

Future Retail

Nespresso club is an example of this
community...

2013

Meth...
Shared aspirations

Method 2013
... Coffee is a commodity, but differentiated through the experience of meeting with frien...
Aspirational Living

Parndorf, Austria, Designer Outlet

Method 2013

Aspirational living: Around world similar looking ma...
Global Aspirational Living

Method 2013
... be a replica of Paris in China.
Gated communities
control lifestyles
based on shared aspirations

Method 2013
And finally gated communities spring up globa...
the Aspirational City

Method 2013
The aspirational city is characterised by self re-enforcing social likes and recommenda...
AirBnB neighbourhood branding

Method 2013
Third party services. like AirBnB, the largest hotel chain without owning any p...
the Aspirational City

Shoreditch Hoxton

Regentstreet
Westfield

Westfield

Borough

Battersea

Method 2013
The Aspirationa...
the Aspirational City

Method 2013
In fact the aspirational city is not limited to one geographical location but is spread...
oneline city

hyper-local city

aspirational city

Method 2013
I‘ve told you the story of three quite different cities, ea...
The future city is up to you;
The choices between your day
to day online and offline
transactions,
not a master plan,
will ...
Thank you !
Alexander Grünsteidl
alexander@method.com
digitalwellbeinglabs.com
twitter : agrun
Method 2013
Alexander Grüns...
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Retail and the City

637

Published on

Historically cities emerged around centralised marketplaces on the intersection of supply infrastructures.

But as most transactions are shifting online and our perception of value changes, these infrastructures become obsolete. What will shape the city of the future? How will our buying choices, whether we buy from Amazon or we visit farmers markets impact the city of the future?

This talk explores three urban scenarios based on existing trends and discusses what we can anticipate from each one.

The One-Line City - A place where people live exclusively through online lives at home. All transactions take place online, physical meeting places and the high street have disappeared, there is limited requirement for mobility, augmented reality reduces the need for furniture and fashion; we are left with a city built along the connectors between hubs for distributing the few remaining physical goods.

The HyperLocal City - Where people live and thrive in their local communities which are enhanced through social and sensor based networked technologies. The city becomes a collection of neighbourhoods, booming in themselves, but isolated from each other.

The Aspirational City - A global network of city zones that are identical despite being geographically distant. Lifestyle and opinion, and the amplification of those via global social networks create environments of identically branded communities thriving on shared experiences.

The future city is up to you; the choices between your day to day online and offline transactions, not a master plan, will shape the cities to come.

presented at TEDx London, City 2.0
6 December 2013
http://tedxlondon.com/portfolio/alexander-grunsteidl/
http://youtu.be/xhn8kdg3Rg8

0 Comments
3 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
637
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
1
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
0
Comments
0
Likes
3
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Retail and the City

  1. 1. Retail and the City The shape of cities to come Alexander Grünsteidl alexander@method.com digitalwellbeinglabs.com twitter : agrun Method 2013 I want to tell you a story about Retail and the City, about how our shopping and consumption behaviours are influencing the shape of our future cities. It is a description of our future, for once not illustrated by the discussion of different mobility scenarios, nano technology driven organic architecture nor alternative energy perspectives, but instead explored by imminent changes to the very basis, the markets, the shops and the supply infrastructure, that together make the fabric of our cities.
  2. 2. I hate shopping ! Method 2013 I don't like going shopping, strolling till my feet hurt, squeezing through people on busy streets, entering too hot for comfort department stores, being overwhelmed with the amount of choice.
  3. 3. I love it ! Method 2013 I love shopping, it’s part of our culture, it is where our communities meet. Opportunity for surprise discoveries and fulling my wants and desires.
  4. 4. my street Method 2013 This is my street. Not a pretty image, not the glamour of regent street or the editorialised and polished neighbourhoods presented by Monocle. No this is a street that has lost many of its core businesses like grocery stores, fashion shops, music vendors. Instead these are replaced by Nail Studios, Barbers, Pound Shops, Payday Loan, Fast food outlets, Churches of divers nomination and many Betting shops. I used to dislike this most ugly street, but started loving it by increasingly engaging with the local community. Engaging with the infrastructures that makes the fabric of our cities.
  5. 5. a brief history of commerce and the city Method 2013 So how did this all start; “a brief history of commerce and the city”
  6. 6. Markets Cities Future Retail 2013 When mankind evolved from hunter gatherers to form an agrarian society, the surplus from the farms was traded in centralised places. Method 2013
  7. 7. Method 2013 Markets appeared on the crossroads, at intersections of communities.
  8. 8. Shopping Streets Future Retail 2013 Along the supply roads to the markets more permanent shops appeared and cities started growing from the central market outwards. Method 2013
  9. 9. Industrial Society Future Retail 2013 This remained the same for many millennia when the industrial revolution sparked new opportunities to produce and distribute products en mass. Method 2013
  10. 10. Future Retail 2013 Method 2013 Products like woven textiles were produced in long rolls, transported to a remote store were a shopping assistant would cut of pieces, Tailler, were the word retail (and tailor) comes from.
  11. 11. Shop Window Method 2013 Shopping windows appeared allowing shoppers to discover the wealth and variety of products churned out by factories.
  12. 12. Department Store Department Store Future Retail Soon followed by department stores which aggregate, editorialise and present products to a specific type of customers. 2013 Method 2013
  13. 13. Method 2013 Railroads allowed economies of scale to emerge, enabled by linking cities and its people together over vast distances costing less time. Providing transport of goods from farms and factories. As the cities grew the shape of the city remained internally the same and grew organically and mostly unregulated outwards
  14. 14. Mail order catalog Method 2013 With the invention of the mail order catalog people were for the first time able to browse at home order by post and receive the goods by railroad.
  15. 15. Method 2013 With the arrival of affordable cars, mobility became democratised.
  16. 16. Method 2013 ... but the old city centres were not designed for cars and soon shops appeared on the periphery, turning the city effectively inside out
  17. 17. Shopping mall Future Retail 2013 Shopping malls provided climate controlled indoor shopping destinations away from home, from the neighbourhoods people lived. Method 2013
  18. 18. Overwhelming Choices Method 2013 The accumulation of goods in gigantic retail facilities leading to an overwhelming amount of choice satisfying wants and needs at any price point.
  19. 19. Method 2013 We kept our hunter gatherer instinct, browsing for new glamorous items whilst window shopping. With the arrival of the TV at home, the shopping window appeared inside the convenience of our living room, offering advertisements and product placement in shows and products delivered from shopping channels, only a phone call away.
  20. 20. iPhone 10:15 PM More Method 2013 Soon we can point google goggles at any product around us to find best prices, comparison and recommendations and make a purchase there and then.
  21. 21. We are turning any location into a store Method 2013 In fact we can do this already with service like Shazam. Identifying songs and TV advertisements you are listening to and connecting you instantly to purchase the track or advertised product. You now have the shopwindow, and music store in your pocket.
  22. 22. Method 2013 Shopping has become fragmented, without requiring any centralised retail places anymore.
  23. 23. changing infrastructures lead to changing roles of retail Method 2013 We have seen that changing infrastructures lead to changing roles of retail
  24. 24. indicators what changes retail? Method 2013 So what changes retail?
  25. 25. the last click 1 Method 2013 1. The last click happens when people encounter products on the high street or when browsing online, and then, after comparing prices online, purchase from the lowest offer, often Amazon. No service fee is passed to the places along the discovery trail, who initially helped you to encounter and compare products.
  26. 26. fitting fee Method 2013 Some retailers start asking for fitting fees, for example $25 australian dollar to try these ski boots on. People often try out and learn about products in brick and mortar shops, but then purchase online. The 25 fee is the difference between offline cost to present and maintain stock in expensive city areas and the reduced online cost, keeping stock remote and centralised cost optimised locations on hubs strategically placed in the infrastructure between cities.The fee will subtracted from the bill if the customer remains with the retailer.
  27. 27. As consumption behaviours are changing, only in-person services including hospitality, can survive. Niche offers that can do without economies of scale are remaining Method 2013 As consumption behaviours are changing, only in-person services including hospitality, can survive, on the high street. Niche offers that can do without economies of scale are remaining.
  28. 28. Businesses on the high street purchase transactions 60% - eating & drinking entertainment grooming 40% + Method 2013 In the coming years the proportion of entertainment, hospitality and grooming is increasing on the high street whilst the kind of stores that typically transact purely goods will reduce.
  29. 29. total convergence 2 Method 2013 2.Total Convergence from electro-mechanical via electronic to computational products.
  30. 30. maturation of technologies audio quality mature display resolution compete computing power broadband develop mobility & portability concept localisation 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 the end of features to differentiate products in shops Method 2013 Most electronic and digital products went through rapid improvement in the past decennia. We have reached a point where the public can not differentiate the colour quality of a screen, or the sound of headphones. These quality features were used to continuously market the new, the bigger, and better, but we have reached functional equality across price points.
  31. 31. Method 2013 Instead software applications representing different features accumulate on multifunctional devices leading to total convergence of what used to be differentiated products. note : products are not anymore defined by their features but through the (branded) content of the service they enable.
  32. 32. Multimedia Player YM-P1 Samsung Sat-Nav TomTom Tablet PC HP Compaq 2710p MP3 Player iRiver Clix2 Weather Station Oregon Scientific compact camera Sony DSC-T300 Game Console PSP Sony Mobile Phone LG Prada Photo Display Sony SFrame LCD Television LG Surface Table Microsoft Method 2013 Only the difference in size and proportion of these interactive displays afford(enable) different context of use. Weather it is a projection on a wall, a mobile in your pocket or a display on your wrist.
  33. 33. ... to the point, that a newspaper advertisement by John Lewis a few years back, showed a collection of similar black TV sets, differentiated by cost, requiring them to stick the brand logo on top, amongst a list of product numbers and prices. I am still not sure if this was meant to be sarcastic.
  34. 34. changing production & supply chain 3 Method 2013 3. Another factor has been the rapidly changing production and supply chain management enabled by improved communication over the internet
  35. 35. fashion was necessary ... but not anymore Method 2013 fashion was necessary ... but not anymore.
  36. 36. Method 2013 Look around you. We now look all the same we did ten even fifteen years ago. A picture taken now compared to a picture fifteen years ago will be difficult to differentiate what year it was taken. Compare this with clothing in pictures from the Eighties, Seventies and Sixties, when sometimes even the exact year can be determined, each decennia had very distinct and memorable fashion styles. Before the advent of the internet, fashion (and music) changed each year together with the seasons. footnote : Elvis had about three period styles, Madonna had one style per album, Lady Gaga changes her style daily.
  37. 37. Alignment of development and production process to minimise risk year 1 year 2 year 3 year 4 colour trend textile print weave fashion design shows production distribution Method 2013 It took a long while to communicate and transport goods between different locations involved in the fashion production process. Agreements over production quantities had to be made long in advance to make sure that all components would reach assembly and distribution at the same time. It was a necessity to predict the next fashion trend in order to manage and reduce the risk of up front production investment. In the first year trend agencies would come up with colour recommendations, which were picked up by the textile industry to produce new prints and weaves. These in turn were used in the third year to be presented at fashion shows, before production and distribution to shops in the fourth year. A mistake to predict a trend, was very expensive, therefore it was best to coordinate fashion trends across the industry, creating more coordinated seasonal looks.
  38. 38. Now risk is mitigated by eclectic recombination of styles. Method 2013 Now risk is mitigated by eclectic recombination of styles. Companies like ZARA claim to develop garments from design to arrival in their stores within 3 weeks, treating certain garment lines rather similar to car platforms, enabling them to rapidly apply slight differentiation in reaction to weekly fluctuations in market demand.
  39. 39. MR. GUGU & MISS GO £25 HYPE. £25 YrStore. £45. Method 2013 ... As can be seen in this example from three different stores at The PopUp shopping mall BoxPark Each are seemingly unique pieces, but part of an ever increasing eclectic global style. Anything can be combined with everything.
  40. 40. plenty of choice with little variation Method 2013 We live in a world with plenty of choice and with little variation
  41. 41. From ownership to access. 4 From products to services and collaborative consumption Method 2013 From ownership to access. From products to services and collaborative consumption. The fourth indicator describes how we have less need to go and purchase products in shops, when instead we pay to have access and use them.
  42. 42. We’ve moved into the experience economy Retail as we know it Experiences Services Goods Commodities Starbucks Brewed coffee Packaged coffee Coffee beans Based on the work of Joseph Pine and James Gilmore in “The Experience Economy” Method 2013 We’ve moved into the experience economy. Initially retail of a commodity like coffee happened direct from bulk bags at the grocers, before the first packaged and branded goods were placed on self service shelves. The margins could be improved by preparing brewed coffee whilst now we expect complete experiences providing comfortable environments to meet over a cup of coffee and a sandwich or dessert.
  43. 43. Once products don’t differentiate enough to provide status, then the value of ownership reduces. Seamless access and time saving services become more desirable. We are on the brink of a sharing economy. Method 2013 Once products don’t differentiate enough to provide status, then the value of ownership reduces. Earlier we saw how product features increasingly show less differentiation across price points. Instead services that offer personalised and seamless access to content, and save time to consume more, become more desirable. There is in fact less need to go to shops as instead of purchasing products to own we sign up and subscribe to service that give us access to convenience (transport, mobility, content) Common products, seldom used, can be easily shared ....
  44. 44. Method 2013 Examples are car sharing services like ZipCar, room sharing with AirBnB and tool sharing with Ecomodo.
  45. 45. As consumption behaviours are changing, only in-person services including hospitality, can survive. Niche offers that can do without economies of scale are remaining Method 2013 As consumption behaviours are changing, only in-person services including hospitality, can survive, on the high street. Niche offers that can do without economies of scale are remaining.
  46. 46. Businesses on the high street purchase transactions 60% - eating & drinking entertainment grooming 40% + Method 2013 In the coming years the proportion of entertainment, hospitality and grooming is increasing on the high street whilst the kind of stores that typically transact purely goods will reduce.
  47. 47. economic pressure changes shopping patterns 5 Method 2013 economic pressure changes shopping patterns : economic pressure, for example after the 2008 crash, when the cost of transport increased, the cost to reach a shopping mall, away from where you lived increased, shopping patterns shifted rapidly in response.
  48. 48. The weekly shopping trip is becoming too expensive. People are fed up with traffic jams and cost of transport. Method 2013 The weekly shopping trip is becoming too expensive. People are fed up with traffic jams and increasing cost of transport.
  49. 49. Top up shopping Method 2013 New shopping patterns emerged and the supermarket chains were quick to react, offering Top Up shopping outlets back inside the local communities. People now only buy essentials in bulk every once in a while and then and instead top up daily requirements as need arises. Smaller versions or supermarkets, targeting local needs, are taking over vacated stores on the high street again.
  50. 50. Markets and trading places shape our cities. If the requirements for these are changing, how will changing business models affect the shape of our cities ? Method 2013 Markets and trading places shape our cities. If the requirements for these are changing, how will changing business models affect the shape of our cities ?
  51. 51. a tale of three cities Method 2013 I am going to tell you the story of three cities, each driven by a distinct technology trend defined by our shopping and transaction behaviours affecting the supply chain infrastructure which in turn shapes our cities.
  52. 52. the oneline city 1 Method 2013 1. the Oneline City
  53. 53. Hikikomori Method 2013 The One-Line City is characterised by people living solitary lives in front of computers at home; They shop at home, consume at home, make a living at home, make love at home. In Japan this trend is known as Hikikomori (pulling inward, being confined) Estimates consider that about 1 percent of the Japanese population live solitary Hikikomori type lifestyles.
  54. 54. online ecommerce is still growing online entertainment is growing single households are spreading cost of mobility is increasing Method 2013 Online ecommerce is still growing, online entertainment is growing, single households are spreading, cost of mobility is increasing.
  55. 55. Tipping point Even a small reduction in transactions, around 10%, is often enough to close many independent shops on the high street. Method 2013 Tipping point: Even a small reduction in transactions, sometimes just 10%, when customers move their business online to competing offers, is often enough to close many independent shops on the high street ... once shops vanish, the need to visit public places reduces even more.
  56. 56. Tipping point Improved TeleConferencing technologies and increasing cost of international business travel will lead to collapse of airlines . Method 2013 Tipping point : Improved TeleConferencing technologies and increasing cost of international travel will lead to collapse of airlines through loss of business travellers ... reducing the opportunity to travel.
  57. 57. the google glass world Sight : Israeli filmmakers Eran May-raz and Daniel Lazo http://vimeo.com/46304267 Method 2013 This is an interesting example of a google glass world made of few real products. Instead everything from wallpaper to album covers, flowers, photo albums and immersive games is superimposed as an augmented reality. Furniture and walls are instantly re-decorated to reflect current desires. Dating becomes a game embedding the real date in a virtual aura of Facebook information.(Sight : Israeli filmmakers Eran May-raz and Daniel Lazo <http://vimeo.com/46304267>)
  58. 58. the google glass world Method 2013 People start wearing implanted ‘Sight’ lenses that overlay the world with a both augmented and immersive reality.
  59. 59. the google glass world Method 2013 Most aspects of daily life including preparing meals and wearing clothes is gamified.
  60. 60. Method 2013 People live in empty spaces where all furnishings, decorations and media are superimposed on blank surfaces.
  61. 61. the google glass world Method 2013 Facebook like information provides a virtual aura of continuous information about people and commercial transactions are seemingly integrated through embedded gamified services.
  62. 62. we live in an intimately connected world Method 2013 We live in an intimately connected world.
  63. 63. Method 2013 We foster online and virtual relationships, with virtual gifts from a virtual store, representing new perceptions of value.
  64. 64. people eat more and more pre-cooked meals PBS The New York pizza delivery path of one Domino’s employee Method 2013 People eat increasingly pre-cooked meals at work as at home, even as TV cooking channels which should encourage home cooking, rather become advertisements for restaurants or product placement of gadgets and readymade ingredients by their celebrity chefs. This data visualisation shows the movement of Domino Pizza delivery employees on a Friday night in New York.
  65. 65. UBER & GOOGLE Method 2013 Recently Google bought UBER, a taxi service similar to Hailo. They aim to improve the courier services hoping to develop autonomous robotic delivery systems in the near future. This will even more promote home consumption. Amazon experiments with robotic delivery drones.
  66. 66. We may start producing some products on demand at home. We may start producing some products on demand at home. Method 2013
  67. 67. make money online? - Sell Stock Photography - Tweet For Sponsors - Blog for Ad Revenues - Sell Affiliate Products - Write an e Book - Become a Virtual Assistant - Lease Your Skills - Selling on eBay - Become A Mobile App Tester - Become a Mechanical Turk - Flip domain names - Do online surveys - Transcribe audio - Edit audio, images, video - Enter contests - Create a virtual store - Do webinar marketing - Build and sell an app - Sell your music - Become a freelance designer Method 2013 Making money from online jobs has not proven to be too profitable yet. You could try blogging for Ad Revenues, becoming a mechanical turk or build and sell your own apps.
  68. 68. energy is created and used where it is most cost effective and lowest environmental impact. Method 2013 Energy is created and used where it is most cost effective and lowest environmental impact: These online communities require vast amounts of computing power which in turn consume considerable amounts of energy. Facebook has set up a server farm, at the outskirts of a supply infrastructure, across the arctic circle to use natural cooling to reduce energy cost to disseminate the heat.
  69. 69. the Oneline City Method 2013 The model of the OneLine city is build around a backbone of a single supply corridor to individual households, facilitating high resolution conference communication services for online business, immersive entertainment, instant love-life, any form of consumption at home. There is little need for mobility left apart from the supply corridors, and even those may be superseded by airborne delivery drones.
  70. 70. history has shown that cities formed around organically grown infrastructures, creating optimal cost effective connections between production, trade and consumption Method 2013 History has shown that cities formed around organically grown infrastructures, creating optimal cost effective connections between production, trade and consumption. MIT are using mobile phone data to establish how peoples' locations and traffic patterns can be used for urban planning. As people are moving less, urban planning might require a lesser spread of buildings.
  71. 71. Slime mould Emergent Infrastructures Method 2013 An experiment with Slime Mould demonstrates that a network of mould grown between cornflakes laid out on a map of tokyo matches the real world patterns. We can infer from this an optimal lay out for a future city based on the optimised placement of supply hubs.
  72. 72. the Oneline City Method 2013 The online city will be characterised by corridors connecting distribution hubs, proximity to the corridor becoming a premium, removing the need for in between urban spaces.
  73. 73. Road Town 1910 Method 2013 Examples of linear cities, like Road Town by Edgar Chambless, appeared in the early twentieth century, embedding transport infrastructures for trains and cars within buildings snaking through the countryside, allowing farms and nature to reach up to the apartments of its citizens.
  74. 74. Method 2013 Similar linear ideas appeared in the sixties and seventies when cars dominated the cities
  75. 75. linear city concepts are mostly based on providing more space for nature to recover. Method 2013 These original concepts are based on a desire to be closer to nature. One of the many versions of a Garden City.
  76. 76. the Oneline City Method 2013 I believe these city structures could emerge, but these will rather be commercially driven, cost optimised supply routes between distribution hubs to supply individual households.
  77. 77. the hyper-local city 2 Method 2013 2. the Hyper Local City
  78. 78. online social networking tools improve communication on a local level. Local enterprises can reach out, advertise and create a dialog with their immediate neighbours Method 2013 Online social networking tools improve communication on a local level. Local enterprises can reach out, advertise and create a dialog with their immediate neighbours
  79. 79. Coffee shops everywhere communities require places to meet Method 2013 An online search shows clusters of results across the map of London? These represent the 5000 (and growing) coffee shops across London. These mostly emerged, curiously together with the arrival of the internet. It shows that communities need places to meet.
  80. 80. community meeting places Method 2013 Provide facilities for in this example Bicycle communities to meet and exchange news and ideas.
  81. 81. Alternative forms hospitality Bike repair + cafe Bookstore + cafe Bookstore + restaurant Fashion + bar Laundry + cafe Bank + design shop Bank + work lounge Barber + nail studio + money transfer Internet + cafe Method 2013 Alternative forms hospitality Bike repair + cafe, Bookstore + cafe, Bookstore + restaurant, Fashion + bar, Laundry + cafe, Bank + design shop, Bank + work lounge, Barber + nail studio + money transfer, Internet + cafe
  82. 82. Local Currencies to incentivise local economies Method 2013 Local currencies offer a way to keep money inside communities and incentivise local economies.
  83. 83. Local Businesses and Retail with low start up costs Pop-Up Mall Future Retail 2013 Method 2013 Innovative low-cost-of-entry retail formats, for example the BoxPark popup shopping mall in London, stimulate local retail by allowing businesses to try and learn about their offer and value model, before committing to more permanent solutions.
  84. 84. Farmers Markets Everywhere Method 2013 Farmers markets appear in neighbourhoods.
  85. 85. local retailers find low cost places to trade Method 2013 There are now more farmers markets than Wallmarts in the USA
  86. 86. connecting communities with their resources Method 2013 It’s a growing trend of communities to connect with fresh and local production. A desire to grow food locally and recycle the waste from the community
  87. 87. requires lots of space locally in form of vertically stacked farms ©Caliber Biotherapeutics and EEA Consulting Engineers To supply food locally for an urban population we will to maximise the use of ground space and produce food in energy efficient vertically stacked farms Method 2013
  88. 88. Vertical Livestock Farming PigCity mvrdv.nl Method 2013 MVRDV, a Dutch architectural practice, took this idea to the next level housing pigs in high rise farms. According to their figures and a back of a napkin calculation, we’d require about 85 towers the size of the Shard, a 300m Skyscraper in London, to supply the amount of pigs consumed a year in London.
  89. 89. Urban energy generation Wind & Solar Farms Method 2013 There is a drive for community generated energy from city based wind & solar farms and the local Bio-Degradation of waste.
  90. 90. the Hyper Local City everyone ... is a producer of goods offers services is a trader Method 2013 In the Hyper Local City everyone is a producer of goods everyone offers services, everyone supplies energy, everyone is a trader, together contributing to the local community.
  91. 91. Circular Urban Utopias Method 2013 Circular urbanities have been part of Utopian dreams since Thomas Moore, or Auroville planned in the Sixties in India, and the yearly temporary city of of Burning Man, with an agora and market in the middle to bring the communities together.
  92. 92. the Hyper Local City Method 2013 The Hyper Local City is a fragmented city of self sufficient communities, with little need for economic exchange with their adjacent localities. Our current cities may fall apart into smaller, low energy community clusters of high-rise constructions within walkable distances.
  93. 93. the aspirational city 3 Method 2013 3. the Aspirational City The last city is not a future city, but the city we already live in.
  94. 94. Broadcast media, like Radio and TV and now the Internet, connect people across vast distances leading to global cultures. Method 2013 Broadcast media, like Radio and TV and now the Internet, connect people across vast distances leading to global cultures.
  95. 95. Global Tribes Method 2013 Tribes are made of individuals with almost the same behaviours, desires and lifestyle needs.
  96. 96. Global Life Styles Method 2013 These tribes stay in touch through social media like Facebook and Pinterest, reinforcing their shared likes, becoming increasingly similar.
  97. 97. Identical Shopping Malls offer a limited set of global brands Method 2013 We see identical shops around the world in airport malls, making it less interesting to travel in the first place.
  98. 98. Off-the-shelf shopping centres offer places for shared experiences Method 2013 For example the Westfield shopping malls around the world are made of an identical mix of global brands providing spaces for shared experiences.
  99. 99. Nespresso Club Brand Experience Communities Future Retail Nespresso club is an example of this community... 2013 Method 2013
  100. 100. Shared aspirations Method 2013 ... Coffee is a commodity, but differentiated through the experience of meeting with friends and discovering together new tastes. Whilst the actual purchase of replacement coffee capsules happens online.
  101. 101. Aspirational Living Parndorf, Austria, Designer Outlet Method 2013 Aspirational living: Around world similar looking malls appear, aspiring to a romantic notion of the past. This is the Parndorf Designer Outlet, in Austria, conveniently located between Vienna, Bratislava in Slovakia close to the Hungarian border, but it as well could be in Kuwait, United States or ...
  102. 102. Global Aspirational Living Method 2013 ... be a replica of Paris in China.
  103. 103. Gated communities control lifestyles based on shared aspirations Method 2013 And finally gated communities spring up globally, dictating the lifestyle, type of house car and type of stores available to the community, fuelled by shared aspirations.
  104. 104. the Aspirational City Method 2013 The aspirational city is characterised by self re-enforcing social likes and recommendation feedback loops, that remove any variety. whilst the tribes go out to experience brands and purchase souvenirs to keep a memories of a great day out.
  105. 105. AirBnB neighbourhood branding Method 2013 Third party services. like AirBnB, the largest hotel chain without owning any property, start branding neighbourhoods rather than being constrained by the borders set by councils and governments
  106. 106. the Aspirational City Shoreditch Hoxton Regentstreet Westfield Westfield Borough Battersea Method 2013 The Aspirational City is around us
  107. 107. the Aspirational City Method 2013 In fact the aspirational city is not limited to one geographical location but is spread around the world.
  108. 108. oneline city hyper-local city aspirational city Method 2013 I‘ve told you the story of three quite different cities, each shaped by following one recent technology and internet infrastructure driven trend, defined by our shopping and transaction behaviours. The One-Line City looking at a future consumed at home The Hyper Local City describing thriving connected neighbourhood and The Aspirational City made of similar lifestyle zones around the globe. None of these cities will exist on its own, but aspects will be noticeable soon in future urban areas.
  109. 109. The future city is up to you; The choices between your day to day online and offline transactions, not a master plan, will shape the cities to come. Method 2013 The future city is up to you; The choices between your day to day online and offline transactions, if you purchase online at Amazon or local at your farmers market, not a master plan, will shape the cities to come.
  110. 110. Thank you ! Alexander Grünsteidl alexander@method.com digitalwellbeinglabs.com twitter : agrun Method 2013 Alexander Grünsteidl leads the Interaction Design team at Method in London, where he designs products and services by re-imagining business models and customer experiences.

×