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The rise of disruptivedigital business models. Darwinism goes digital– how will businessesadapt or die?          The rise ...
I am a designernota business man          The rise of disruptive digital business models   & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
For adesigner                                                              33%business                                    ...
Gillette - handle & razor bladeHP - printer & cartridgesVodafone - phone & airtimeAdobe - reader & Indesign etc.          ...
Embodiment of ownershipaccess to entertainment, personalmedia and communication          The rise of disruptive digital bu...
The internet has enabledradically new (disruptive)b-modelseBayAmazonGoogle AdsenseAirbnb           The rise of disruptive ...
Demise of products we ownExplosion of services we useStreetcar / Zipcar         Spotify                                   ...
Shifting value perceptionsTowards seamlessaccessibilityand habitualchoice          The rise of disruptive digital business...
What is more valuable?access vs ownershipmanaging value perceptionsand creating mental models         The rise of disrupti...
What is more valuable?access vs ownership          The rise of disruptive digital business models   & © digital wellbeing ...
What is more valuable?access vs ownership                                                           http://arstechnica.com...
The rise of disruptive digital business models   & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
Shifting value expectationsThe face of free          The rise of disruptive digital business models   & © digital wellbein...
Customer perception of value   own                                                               usehow much can          ...
The perceived value of free                                                           App usage patterns          The rise...
Technology convergenceaffords ever new interactionsbetween context, contentand social relationshipsconsequently valueperce...
Consumer behaviourcontinuous to changeBandwidthAccessibilityTrustCustomisation           The rise of disruptive digital bu...
Business models driven by theinternet and reacting to thisflux seem to followevolutionary tendencies.          The rise of ...
usefulusabledelightful             The rise of disruptive digital business models   & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
usefulusabledelightfulviable             The rise of disruptive digital business models   & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
usefulusabledelightfulviableNow the business model is anintegral requirement thatshapes digital design.          The rise ...
Business Model integrationacross all customer engagements                          EIL                          CIV 0019  ...
New UX design tools ?business model canvas                                                          www.businessmodelgener...
EcologyTechnology evolution          The rise of disruptive digital business models   & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
Ecology          The rise of disruptive digital business models   & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
Ecology          The rise of disruptive digital business models   & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
Geography of Social Networks         The rise of disruptive digital business models   & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
Network EconomyValue is added through socialnetworks operating on largescales.           The rise of disruptive digital bu...
Changing business modelssocieties & economieshunter     agrarian                                           industrial     ...
Emergent species requires a newecology to operate in          The rise of disruptive digital business models   & © digital...
What does this map show?      The rise of disruptive digital business models   & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
Coffee selling shops in London        The rise of disruptive digital business models   & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
Coffee selling shops in London        The rise of disruptive digital business models   & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
New business models driven by the internet              The rise of disruptive digital business models   & © digital wellb...
Business opportunitiesthrough cross-breedingBike repair + cafeBookstore + cafeBookstore + restaurantFashion + barLaundry +...
Introduction :What is evolution ?          The rise of disruptive digital business models   & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
EvolutionThe process ofchange overgenerations.          The rise of disruptive digital business models   & © digital wellb...
EvolutionThe diversity ofmodels evolvesby means ofmutations,genetic drift andselection.           The rise of disruptive d...
Selection1_hereditary materials, genes2_produce more offspring thanthe environment can support.3_variations among offsprin...
Selection1_design patterns2_rapid growth3_unexpected use cases andmergers          The rise of disruptive digital business...
A brief history of businessmodels on the internet notnecessarily affected byevolutionary forces.           The rise of dis...
Period βexperiments and visions1979 book Future Cities: Homes and Living into the 21st Century                            ...
Period βexperiments and visions          The rise of disruptive digital business models   & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
Period βexperiments and visionsApple Newton               The rise of disruptive digital business models   & © digital wel...
Period 1emulate existing businessmodels but apply to newinfrastructure._the World Wide Web_Brochureware          The rise ...
Period 1           The rise of disruptive digital business models   & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
Web 1.0 vs CD-romWhen business models didn’ttransfer.         The rise of disruptive digital business models   & © digital...
Period 1.com crashequivalent to a meteorite          The rise of disruptive digital business models   & © digital wellbein...
Period 2realisation of the networkemergence of social media._The semantic web          The rise of disruptive digital busi...
abc      The rise of disruptive digital business models   & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
Period 2realisation ofthe evolutionarynature, similarto the cambrianexplosion          The rise of disruptive digital busi...
Evolution is driven by death       The rise of disruptive digital business models   & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
Period 2Disappearing geographical borders, shrinking distances, instantcommunication lead to competition on a global scale...
Period 3Seamless, continuous,integrated, fully mediated           The rise of disruptive digital business models   & © dig...
abc      The rise of disruptive digital business models   & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
Period 3NIN Nine Inch Nails         The rise of disruptive digital business models   & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
Period 3NIN Nine Inch Nails       TapTap                                                music + game       revengeFree    ...
Period 3NIN Nine Inch Nails       NIN access                                            music + social       app          ...
Business models :Oh no ... not today           The rise of disruptive digital business models   & © digital wellbeing labs...
Evolving business modelsBrokerage : charges a fee or                                         Merchant model : curator     ...
Evolving business modelsdesigning customer engagementFrequency - repeat useDuration - dwell-timecreating a context of use ...
Darwinism :Is it all about the survival ofthe fittest?Are there successful nicheopportunities?            The rise of disru...
NichesOne Million Dollar page          The rise of disruptive digital business models   & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
NichesI am rich AppValue?          The rise of disruptive digital business models   & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
NichesRed Paperclip - 14 bartershttp://oneredpaperclip.blogspot.com/                           The rise of disruptive digi...
Niches     Red Paperclip - 14 bartersOne red paper clip          Novelty pen                   Ceramic doorknob           ...
Game ChangersSquare,small transactionprocessing services          The rise of disruptive digital business models   & © dig...
Game Changerswww.khanacademy.org        The rise of disruptive digital business models   & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
Darwinism :In a connected world ...When ecologies are merged ...          The rise of disruptive digital business models  ...
ecologyWhen foreign species are introduced in formerly closed ecologies, soon adominant species will outcompete the native...
Dying species          The rise of disruptive digital business models   & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
Network effect instantlydistributes, recycles andaccelerates ideas.No originality, reusing patterns           The rise of ...
Each ecological niche affordsoptimised solutionAcceleration to optimisedsolutions.          The rise of disruptive digital...
Each ecological niche affordsoptimised solutionSolutions are homologue                            Troodon & Dinosauroid   ...
Are we still evolving at the samespeed?1920   1930   1940   1950    1960                       1970                 1980  ...
Are we in a period ofoptimisation & stagnation?A picture of you now, and compared to styles 15years back will not show man...
Are we in a period ofoptimisation & stagnation?Acceleration of evolution of ideas leads toconverging solutions and stagnat...
We seem to have gained morechoicesWith increasingly less variety           The rise of disruptive digital business models ...
Network effect instantlydistributes, recycles andaccelerates ideas.No originality, reusing patternsShould we become ignora...
Evolution is inherentlynon-deterministicthree questions           The rise of disruptive digital business models   & © dig...
three questions_What b-models are about to emerge?_How can products and services bedesigned to become more adaptive toevol...
Thank You!Alexander Grünsteidlalexander @ method.comwww.method.comwww.digitalwellbeinglabs.com              The rise of di...
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Evolution and digital design business models

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Published on

Talk at LBi "What's next in UX design",February 2012


In the past designers made products useful, usable and delightful. If we adhered to these principles we believed products would sell. The business factors were mostly external to the product. Now the business model is an integral requirement that shapes digital design. 



The consumer electronic products we used to own were the embodiment of access to entertainment, personal media and communication. The past decade witnessed the demise of products we own to the explosion of services, enabled by the internet, we use. Value perceptions are shifting from ownership towards seamless accessibility and habitual choice. Technology convergence affords ever new interactions between context, content and social relationships and consequently value perceptions are in perpetual flux. We've become aware, in retrospect, that business models driven by the internet and reacting to this flux seem to follow evolutionary tendencies. 


- A look at a brief history of business models on the internet affected by evolutionary forces.
- Is it all about the survival of the fittest? And are there successful niche opportunities?
- Although evolution is inherently non-deterministic it doesn't harm to ask the question: what lies ahead and where are we going? Can products and services be designed to become more adaptive to evolutionary requirements? 

Published in: Art & Photos, Business

Transcript of "Evolution and digital design business models"

  1. 1. The rise of disruptivedigital business models. Darwinism goes digital– how will businessesadapt or die? The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  2. 2. I am a designernota business man The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  3. 3. For adesigner 33%business developmentmodels 33% manufactureused to besimple 33% retail The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  4. 4. Gillette - handle & razor bladeHP - printer & cartridgesVodafone - phone & airtimeAdobe - reader & Indesign etc. The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  5. 5. Embodiment of ownershipaccess to entertainment, personalmedia and communication The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  6. 6. The internet has enabledradically new (disruptive)b-modelseBayAmazonGoogle AdsenseAirbnb The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  7. 7. Demise of products we ownExplosion of services we useStreetcar / Zipcar Spotify Ecomodo The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  8. 8. Shifting value perceptionsTowards seamlessaccessibilityand habitualchoice The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  9. 9. What is more valuable?access vs ownershipmanaging value perceptionsand creating mental models The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  10. 10. What is more valuable?access vs ownership The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  11. 11. What is more valuable?access vs ownership http://arstechnica.com/microsoft/news/ 2009/05/microsofts-next-apple-price- attack-zune-pass-vs-itunes.ars The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  12. 12. The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  13. 13. Shifting value expectationsThe face of free The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  14. 14. Customer perception of value own usehow much can pay per subscribeone own and useconsume ? The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  15. 15. The perceived value of free App usage patterns The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  16. 16. Technology convergenceaffords ever new interactionsbetween context, contentand social relationshipsconsequently valueperceptions are inperpetual flux.  The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  17. 17. Consumer behaviourcontinuous to changeBandwidthAccessibilityTrustCustomisation  The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  18. 18. Business models driven by theinternet and reacting to thisflux seem to followevolutionary tendencies. The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  19. 19. usefulusabledelightful The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  20. 20. usefulusabledelightfulviable The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  21. 21. usefulusabledelightfulviableNow the business model is anintegral requirement thatshapes digital design. The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  22. 22. Business Model integrationacross all customer engagements EIL CIV 0019 Ticket and seat reservation for Grunsteidl Alexander Train Depart Arrive Class Coach Seat 05/09 18h50 9157 ANY DUTCH STATION LONDON ST-PANCRAS 20h03 05/09 Standard 5 74 Additional information Booking references Check in at least 30 min before departure time PNR / TWEGGM Non echangeable/non remboursable You are booked in a seat Carriers 0019 GBP **94.50 BV ND02AD 159592563955 BVARA IV959256395 CA Issued 010911 EUROSTAR STD NON FLEXI ANY DUTCH STATION / 01ADULT 17:04 HOLD THIS BAR CODE FIRMLY AGAINST THE READER ON THE TICKET GATE zdqd zdhk jcav zkxonline sales pdf (paper) ticket The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  23. 23. New UX design tools ?business model canvas www.businessmodelgeneration.com The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  24. 24. EcologyTechnology evolution The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  25. 25. Ecology The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  26. 26. Ecology The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  27. 27. Geography of Social Networks The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  28. 28. Network EconomyValue is added through socialnetworks operating on largescales. The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  29. 29. Changing business modelssocieties & economieshunter agrarian industrial informationgatherer The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  30. 30. Emergent species requires a newecology to operate in The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  31. 31. What does this map show? The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  32. 32. Coffee selling shops in London The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  33. 33. Coffee selling shops in London The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  34. 34. New business models driven by the internet The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  35. 35. Business opportunitiesthrough cross-breedingBike repair + cafeBookstore + cafeBookstore + restaurantFashion + barLaundry + cafeBank + design shopBank + work loungeBarber + nail studio + money transferInternet + cafe The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  36. 36. Introduction :What is evolution ? The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  37. 37. EvolutionThe process ofchange overgenerations. The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  38. 38. EvolutionThe diversity ofmodels evolvesby means ofmutations,genetic drift andselection. The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  39. 39. Selection1_hereditary materials, genes2_produce more offspring thanthe environment can support.3_variations among offspringthrough mutations orreproduction The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  40. 40. Selection1_design patterns2_rapid growth3_unexpected use cases andmergers The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  41. 41. A brief history of businessmodels on the internet notnecessarily affected byevolutionary forces. The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  42. 42. Period βexperiments and visions1979 book Future Cities: Homes and Living into the 21st Century The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  43. 43. Period βexperiments and visions The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  44. 44. Period βexperiments and visionsApple Newton The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  45. 45. Period 1emulate existing businessmodels but apply to newinfrastructure._the World Wide Web_Brochureware The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  46. 46. Period 1 The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  47. 47. Web 1.0 vs CD-romWhen business models didn’ttransfer. The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  48. 48. Period 1.com crashequivalent to a meteorite The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  49. 49. Period 2realisation of the networkemergence of social media._The semantic web The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  50. 50. abc The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  51. 51. Period 2realisation ofthe evolutionarynature, similarto the cambrianexplosion The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  52. 52. Evolution is driven by death The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  53. 53. Period 2Disappearing geographical borders, shrinking distances, instantcommunication lead to competition on a global scale. The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  54. 54. Period 3Seamless, continuous,integrated, fully mediated The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  55. 55. abc The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  56. 56. Period 3NIN Nine Inch Nails The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  57. 57. Period 3NIN Nine Inch Nails TapTap music + game revengeFree $ 5.00 The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  58. 58. Period 3NIN Nine Inch Nails NIN access music + social app networkFree The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  59. 59. Business models :Oh no ... not today The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  60. 60. Evolving business modelsBrokerage : charges a fee or Merchant model : curator Subscriptioncommission for each Virtual Merchant - e-Tailer online only eg amazon Catalog Merchant Users are charged a periodic -- Click and Mortar (barns & Noble)transaction it enables. Bit Vendor daily, monthly or annual -- feeMarketplace ExchangeBuy / Sell Fullfillment Manufacturer (Direct) a to subscribe to a service. It isDemand collection system (priceline)Auction BrokerTransaction Broker - 3rd party payment fullfilment - Paypall company that creates a not uncommon for sites toDistributorSearch Agent product or service to reach combine free content withVirtual Market Place - hosting services at a price buyers directly and thereby "premium"Advertising: The advertising Content Services : - Netflix compress the distribution Person-to-Person Networking Servicesmodel works best when the Trust Services : channel. Internet Services Providers : AOLvolume of viewer traffic is large Purchase -- the sale of a product in which the right of ownership is transferred to the buyer.or highly specialised. Lease Utility : pay as you go License "on-demand" model is based on metering usage, or a "pay as you go" approach.Portal Brand Integrated Content Unlike subscriber services, metered services are based on actual usage rates.Classifieds ISPsUse RegistrationQuery-based Paid Placement -, automate what you see, when.Contextual Advertising / Behavioral Marketing Affiliate : passing traffic Metered Usage : Metered Subscriptions : slashdotContent-Targeted Advertising - Googe adsense Banner ExchangeIntromercials Pay-per-clickUltramercials Revenue Sharing (iTunes click thru)Infomediary: analytical data of Community : shared resources Open Source - Instead of licensing code for a fee, open source relies on revenueconsumption or navigation generated from related services like systems integration, product support, tutorials and user documentation.habits and patterns Open Content - wikipedia Public Broadcasting - user-supported model used by not-for-profit throughAdvertising Networks voluntary donations.Audience Measurement Services Social Networking Services - Social networking services can provideIncentive Marketing - loyalty opportunities for contextual advertising and subscriptions for premium services.Metamediary (FLickr, Friendsetr, Flickr) The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  61. 61. Evolving business modelsdesigning customer engagementFrequency - repeat useDuration - dwell-timecreating a context of use to drivetowards embedded b-models The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  62. 62. Darwinism :Is it all about the survival ofthe fittest?Are there successful nicheopportunities? The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  63. 63. NichesOne Million Dollar page The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  64. 64. NichesI am rich AppValue? The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  65. 65. NichesRed Paperclip - 14 bartershttp://oneredpaperclip.blogspot.com/ The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  66. 66. Niches Red Paperclip - 14 bartersOne red paper clip Novelty pen Ceramic doorknob Camping stove 1,000-watt generator Beer keg with neon sign Snowmobile Trip to Yakh A large van One recording contract One year rent-free in Phoenix Afternoon with Alice Cooper Kiss Snow globe Hollywood movie role House in Kipling The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  67. 67. Game ChangersSquare,small transactionprocessing services The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  68. 68. Game Changerswww.khanacademy.org The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  69. 69. Darwinism :In a connected world ...When ecologies are merged ... The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  70. 70. ecologyWhen foreign species are introduced in formerly closed ecologies, soon adominant species will outcompete the native species. On a global scale thisleads to fewer species, although ultimately from perspective of evolution thiscompetition will determine the best suited solution. http://images3.realestate.co.nz/edi/genilnk001/photos/L11008-1.jpg The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  71. 71. Dying species The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  72. 72. Network effect instantlydistributes, recycles andaccelerates ideas.No originality, reusing patterns The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  73. 73. Each ecological niche affordsoptimised solutionAcceleration to optimisedsolutions. The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  74. 74. Each ecological niche affordsoptimised solutionSolutions are homologue Troodon & Dinosauroid The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  75. 75. Are we still evolving at the samespeed?1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  76. 76. Are we in a period ofoptimisation & stagnation?A picture of you now, and compared to styles 15years back will not show many differences. The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  77. 77. Are we in a period ofoptimisation & stagnation?Acceleration of evolution of ideas leads toconverging solutions and stagnation of progress.Speed of development has slowed and will onlybe perceivable at an evolutionary pace in thelong term future. The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  78. 78. We seem to have gained morechoicesWith increasingly less variety The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  79. 79. Network effect instantlydistributes, recycles andaccelerates ideas.No originality, reusing patternsShould we become ignorantagain? The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  80. 80. Evolution is inherentlynon-deterministicthree questions The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  81. 81. three questions_What b-models are about to emerge?_How can products and services bedesigned to become more adaptive toevolutionary forces ?_Will evolutionary business models killthe designer? The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
  82. 82. Thank You!Alexander Grünsteidlalexander @ method.comwww.method.comwww.digitalwellbeinglabs.com The rise of disruptive digital business models & © digital wellbeing labs 2012
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