The Future of The Web: Transmission TX2 Talk

future The of the web Dan Zambonini

My wife hates me. Isn’t the future glorious?

Why discuss the future? build relevant apps learn the right skills safeguard your data invest in relevant companies It’s All About The Benjamins Puff Daddy, “No Way Out”, 1997

ghost the of web past

Traditional Method of Discussing Web History • 1969 Arpanet • 1971 Email I Don’t Like That P. Diddy, “The Saga Continues”, 2001 • 1974 TCP/IP • 1977 The Modem • 1978 Bulletin Board System • 1979 MUD • 1979 Usenet • 1984 DNS • 1988 IRC • 1991 Web (HTML/HTTP) • 2004 Web 2.0 / AJAX

Average Selling Price ($US, Inﬂation Adjusted)! 0! 500! 1000! 1500! 2000! 1995! 2500! 1996! 1997! 1998! PCs! 1999! 2000! 2001! 2002! Digital Cameras! Flickr 2003! 2004! YouTube 2005! Facebook Broadband Speed! 2006! 2007! 2008! 2009! 5! 0! 15! 25! 10! 20! US Broadband Speed (Mbps)!

Idea Execution Context

Victims of Context? no critical mass of families broadband not prevalent dot-com bust

ghost the of web present

Number of Users (million)! % World Population! % US Adults Online! 2000! 90! 1800! 80! Number of Users (millions)! 1600! 70! Population Online (%)! 1400! Acquisitions: $billions 60! 1200! .com registered: 11m 50! 1000! 40! 800! 30! 600! 20! 400! 200! 10! 0! 0! 1996! 1997! 1998! 1999! 2000! 2001! 2002! 2003! 2004! 2005! 2006! 2007! 2008! 2009!

http://pewinternet.org

Techcrunch50 2008

Gartner Hype Cycle peak of inﬂated expectations plateau of productivity slope of enlightenment trough of disillusionment visibility technology trigger time

modern technology web 2010 1900 1950 2000 2050

2010: the trough of disillusionment

An increasing feeling of disconnection with the real world “The more time people spend using the Internet, the more they lose contact with their social environment.” (Stanford University Report) i'm gonna give up my efforts of becoming a web developer, ﬁnish all my design jobs and start drawing letters again. one day soon. i think i'm gonna give up So I'm thinking I might give up the computer/internet for a week. internet...maybe =/ ﬁrst myspace goes to shit, then facebook and now twitter has gone the same way! i give up with the internet, where's my pad and pen gone?

ghost the of web future

Idea Execution Demographics Context Needs Audience Behaviours Infrastructure Economics

Contextual Inevitability #1 - Mobile Growth

Contextual Inevitability #2 - Web Dependence connection speed connection ubiquity time

Contextual Inevitability #2 - Web Dependence value of web apps reliance on web apps time

Contextual Inevitability #3 - Data Overload News Cycle (hours)! Volume (updates per day)! 14! 300! 12! 250! 10! 200! 8! 150! 6! 100! 4! 50! 2! 0! 0! 2000! 2005! 2010!

Contextual Inevitability #4 - Invisible Infrastructure infrastructure cost accessible computing power Chrome OS time

Contextual Inevitability #5 - Smaller Companies

Summary: The Future Context • Feeling of Disconnection • Sophisticated Mobile Ubiquity • Web Dependence • Information Overload • Invisible Infrastructure • Many Small Producers, Few Platform Providers What will flourish under these conditions?

nowhere

hyperrecent hyperlocal now here

#1 AUGMENTED REALITY

http://tinyurl.com/arkeyboard

impact of HTML5 & AR number of users novice user sophistication geek

#1.5 HTML 5

Web Audience non-geeks geeks

Web Creators non-geeks geeks

#2 LOCATION BASED SERVICES

#3 BROKERS / MARKETPLACES

Brokers/Marketplaces Microsoft FriendFeed Microsoft Google Facebook Apple News Retail Info Social TV Movies Games Music Location Photo Video

#4 MICROPAYMENTS

• PayPal (5% + $0.05) • Google Checkout (3.4% + £0.20) • Amazon Flexible Payment Service (From 2% + $0.05) • Facebook? • Twitter? • Better Than Free? Kevin Kelly / Seth Godin

#5 NOSQL http://www.rackspacecloud.com/blog/2009/11/09/nosql-ecosystem/

Technologies I Question • Adobe AIR • Semantic Web / RDF • OpenID / Single Identity / Sign On • Virtual Worlds

Problems To Solve: Technologies? • People Who Walk Slowly • Doctor Who Fans • The Rudimentary Design of The Toilet • Michael McIntyre • Recruitment Agents • Jedward

Problems To Solve: Technologies? • RSS / Content • Blurring of Work / Personal Lives • Novices Creating Web Content / Services • Data / API / Services Search (Broker?) • SEO • Spam • Trust • Privacy

Photo Credits / Sources • http://www.flickr.com/photos/wiedmaier/12149900/ • http://www.paleofuture.com/blog/2009/10/19/24-hour-daylight-1960.html • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Christmas_Carol • http://www.flickr.com/photos/shainerin/3795049297/ • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hype_cycle • http://www.flickr.com/photos/42dreams/1878611309/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/cultr/3265160711/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/wvs/2961076514/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/frogdna/3684414371/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/fattytuna/3165260564/ • http://pewinternet.org/Static-Pages/Trend-Data/Whos-Online.aspx • http://pewinternet.org/Infographics/The-Future-of-the-Internet-III.aspx please copy, use, improve, remix and share this presentation

boxuk.com Thanks amaxus.com danzambonini.com dan@boxuk.com danzambonini@googlemail.com thejanuarist.com ignitelondon.net cardiffwebscene.com I’ll Be Missing You zombievirusfund.com Puff Daddy, “No Way Out”, 1997 twitter.com/boxuk twitter.com/amaxus twitter.com/zambonini twitter.com/twitexperiment twitter.com/thejanuarist twitter.com/freelondon twitter.com/ignite_london facebook.com/zambonini linkedin.com/in/zambonini google.com/profiles/danzambonini Or just talk to me. Dan Zambonini

The Future of The Web: Transmission TX2 Talk

by Digital Sparks on Nov 27, 2009

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The Future of The Web: Transmission TX2 Talk — Presentation Transcript