DBW/Forrester 2010 Publishing Executive Survey

How Ready Is The Publishing Industry For 2011?A preview of the publishing executive survey
James McQuivey, Ph.D. | VP, Principal Analyst
Prepared for Digital Book World
25 January 2011
Twitter: @jmcquivey

2010 was a remarkable year…
eReader prices fell dangerously close to $100
10.5 million people owned a dedicated eReader by year-end
New reading form factors were introduced
Nearly $1 billion was spent on eBooks in the US alone

But you ain’t seen nothin’ yet…
20+ million people will read eBooks on an eReader or tablet PC this year
$1.3+ billion will be spent on eBooks in their current form
We can’t yet forecast how much will be spent on nontraditional eFormats

This begs the question:
Are you ready?

We surveyed publishing executives to find out
We surveyed on paper and online, beginning in September 2010
We tested it on 35 executives representing 27 publishers:
Account for 65% of US book publishing revenue
Employing nearly 18,000 people
On average 60% of their job involves digital

These executives are ready to rock
89% of them are “optimistic about the digital transition”
74% say readers will be “better off” because of digital
66% think people will read more
83% think their companies are capable of competing in digital
63% say their company has a digital plan in place, but
80% believe the company needs significant retraining

Big questions we put to them
Which device will win?
How integral are eBooks to your business?
What about apps?
Oh, yeah, and how about paper?

More of them think tablets will win over eReaders
46%
Think tablets are the ideal reading device
29%
Believe eReaders are the ideal reading device

eBooks are now a standard part of publishing
83% release eBooks simultaneously with hardbacks
52% price wholesale, rather than follow the agency model
They expect their eBook sales to increase 139% in the year

Apps are still problematic
46% of our executives say that apps have the potential to dramatically change the reading experience
Yet 49% say they cost too much to develop at this point
Just a third believe apps represent a significant revenue opportunity for them

What of the print business?
53% of executives expect print sales in 2011 to decrease at least somewhat
On average, our respondents expect eBooks to account for half of all books sold by late 2014
They expect the same thing to happen to their books in mid 2015

Fasten your seat belts
If 2011 will be a jolt, just wait for 2012 and beyond
Actively engage in the next two days to maximize your chances of success
And prepare to participate in the 2011 publishing executive survey

Thank you
James McQuivey, Ph.D.
Blogs.forrester.com/james_mcquivey
Follow me on Twitter: @jmcquivey

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DBW/Forrester 2010 Publishing Executive Survey

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