The Rise and Fall and Rise of Ebooks

The Rise and Fall and Rise of Ebooks Martin Taylor Digital Publishing Forum digitalpublishing.org.nz Thanks to our sponsors

What we'll cover

The drivers of the industry today

Why the rise of ebooks will be different this time

Where’s the money ?

Some (almost) free things to get you started today 

The technology drivers

1971 – ebook 'invented' by Michael Hart, Project Gutenberg

1978 - PC

1992 - 'Web 1.0'

1999-2002 – ‘Year of the ebook’

2004 - Web 2.0

Now – wider trends will drive ebook adoption

Smartphones – Apple, Google Android, Blackberry, Palm

Mobile Web

Cloud computing and decline of PC

New screen technologies and device types

Ebook readers today Amazon Kindle 2 (approx 500,000 sold, USA only) Sony Reader (400,000 sold, US, UK) Apple iPhone / iPod Touch (30 million sold In 80 countries)

Books feature strongly in iPhone App store downloads 4 th by downloads Week of 1 March 09

Coming up Fujitsu FLEPia colour ‘e-paper mobile terminal’ Plastic Logic Large e-ink displays due mid-2009 with wireless, touchscreen E-ink can be printed onto flexible surfaces Netbooks may become a viable reading platform

Technology adoption lifecycle Rogers bell curve

US consumer technology adoption Source: New York Times 10 Feb 2008

Two markets for e-reading

Short, casual reading

Longer reading , in-depth, immersed experience

Amazon targets these two markets with its Kindle strategy

Kindle ebook reader, Kindle for iPhone

E-reading doesn't have to be better than paper, just better for some situations

Casual reading market opportunity is immediately available in NZ

In summary: Reasons it will be different this time

Reading technology will be good enough

Wireless web

Likely format standard - ePub

Experience from the false start in early 2000s

Amazon

and Sony .. and Apple .. and Google ..

.. Which means ... Readers will demand ebooks

How will things change? Some thoughts from TOC ‘09

Readers

'reading is becoming a social act ' - Peter Brantley, Digital Library Federation, NY

Publishers

must become more reader-centric

' community builder '

primacy of reader’s positive experience

“ how can we make this the best possible experience for the reader? ”

but key publisher role remains to screen, improve, finance, sell, distribute, nurture

Where's the money?

Less than 1% of trade sales in US

But readers are paying

Books are 100% 'paid content'

Mobile users have been conditioned to pay

But opportunities to monetise a bigger market

Pass-along readers = more buyers

More opportunities to read = more readers

Global market opportunity

Where's the money? US wholesale ebook revenues December 2008 quarter +100% vs prior year Source: idpf.org

How the price of an ebook is set

Based on ' p-book '

Cost-plus

Marginal costing

Market-based – optimise price/volume equation based on buyer behaviour

Price taker , eg from dominant retailer

Other models – subscription, 'literature as service', by chapter, loss-leader for p-book, advertising-supported

How much should the ebook edition of a $30 paper book cost? Source: Digital Publishing Forum: digitalpublishing.org.nz – online poll conducted February-March 2009

Where's the money – Getting started