Helani galpaya

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Helani galpaya

  1. 1. Broadband Quality of Service Experience Chennai, India  November 3 2009
  2. 2. Agenda• Broadband: atwhat cost ?  – Helani Galpaya, LIRNEasia• Innovation in Regulation: BB QoS monitoring – Chanuka Wattegama, LIRNEasia g• Research Findings – Prof Timothy Gonzalves TeNeT/IIT‐M Prof. Timothy Gonzalves, TeNeT/IIT M• Panel Discussion – Chair Prof Ashok Jhunjhunwala TeNeT/IIT M Chair: Prof Ashok Jhunjhunwala, TeNeT/IIT‐M – Operators
  3. 3. About LIRNEasiaAbout LIRNEasia• “T i “To improve the lives of the people of the emerging Asia‐ th li f th l f th i Ai Pacific by facilitating their use of ICTs and related  infrastructures; by catalyzing the reform of laws, policies  f y y g f f p and regulations to enable those uses through the conduct  of policy‐relevant research, training and advocacy with  emphasis on building in situ expertise emphasis on building in‐situ expertise”• A regional ICT policy and regulation think tank – Scope: Asia (Pacific)• Research focused, not project implementation (except  pilots)• C Current cycle research in: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India,  t l h i Af h i t B l d h I di Indonesia, Maldives, Pakistan, Philippines, Sri Lanka,  Thailand (‘SAPTI’)
  4. 4. Broadband : at what cost?  Some evidence from emerging Asia  Some evidence from emerging Asia Helani Galpaya Chennai, India  November 3 2009
  5. 5. Mobiles: high growth through market mechanisms in Asia Nepal Bangladesh Afghanistan India Pakistan Sri Lanka 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 CAGR 2003-08 Active SIMs/100 inhab 2008 Source: ITU, data as of end 2008
  6. 6. Lowest Total Cost of Ownership in the world in South AsiaSouth Asia Four S Asian countries in less-than-USD 5 TCO club among less than USD 77 emerging economies (average TCO = USD10.88)
  7. 7. Helped by budget telecom model that is characterized by…• L ARPU’ Low ARPU’s  – Average ~USD 5 (Bangladesh USD 2 for some operators)• Mostly (over 80%) prepaid Mostly (over 80%) prepaid – low cost of serving (no bills, electronic re‐load, minimal 1‐800  customer care) ) – low customer acquisition cost (~USD 3.5) – low/no credit risk (pre‐paid and cash) – Regional negotiations for equipment; managed networks; • Low(er) Quality  necessary feature in early stages – “ “acceptable” call drop rates x2 of US/EU  bl ” ll d 2 f US/EU• High margins for operators  (decresing)
  8. 8. Has given access to basic voice services even to  those at the Bottom of the Pyramid (BOP) in AsiaUsed a phone in the last 3 d h i h l 3 monthsth Bangladesh Pakistan India Sri Lanka Philippines Thailand% of BOP (outer  95% 96% 86% 88% 79% 77 %sample) Bangladesh Pakistan India Sri Lanka Sri Lanka Philippines Thailand% of BOP (outer  82% 66% 65% 77% 38% 72%sample) • Sample of over 11,000 BOP (SEC D and E) citizens.  Indian sample size over  3,500.   3 500
  9. 9. Even to the BOP Rural Areas in IndiaEven to the BOP Rural Areas in India Last time respondent made/received  a call (% of  BOP teleusers) 100% 90% 80% 70% 2‐3  months ago 60% 1‐2 months ago 50% About a month ago 40% 2‐3 weeks ago 30% 1‐2 weeks ago 20% In the last one week 10% Yesterday / Today 0% Urban Rural India
  10. 10. Ownership is less impressive, but high…Ownership is less impressive but high Total phone ownership (% of BOP teleusers) owners 91% 73% 63% 43% 41% 45%Bangladesh l d h Pakistan ki India di Sri Lanka Si k Philippines hili i Thailand h il d• Most choose to own a phone (rather than use others’ phones) for  convenience; cost is secondary convenience; cost is secondary
  11. 11. …and growing.  Highest growth in India and growing Highest growth in India Total BOP phone ownership: 2006 vs 2008 (% of BOP teleusers) 91% 131%  73% 77% 63% increase 54% 43% 41% 45% 41% 36% 19% 2008 2006 2008 2006 2008 2006 2008 2006 2008 2006 2008Bangladesh Pakistan India Sri Lanka Philippines Thailand
  12. 12. But in Broadband, India falling far behind OECD  countries Broadband penetration itants 30 per 100 inhabi 25 d subscribers p 20 15 xed broadband 10 5Total fix 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 India United Kingdom United States China Japan Germany
  13. 13. And compares only moderately against South Asian peers Broadband subscriber per 100 SAARC countries 100, 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Bangladesh Bhutan India Maldives Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka
  14. 14. But even in the absence of 3G/“real‐mobile BB” speeds, appetite for Mobile BB is high, and growing  Access to BB: fixed vs. mobile 140,000,000  120,000,000  120 000 000 100,000,000  80,000,000  80 000 000 60,000,000  1:19 ratio in favor of mobile 40,000,000 40,000,000  20,000,000  0  June 2008 September 2008 December 2008 March 2009 June 2009 Wireless subscribers capable of Accessing Data services/Internet  Fixed subscribers (all types) ( yp )
  15. 15. In the fixed BB world, DSL is dominates In the fixed BB world DSL is dominates “Broadband” Technology Market share  Quarter ending June 2009 Cable Modem Ethernet/LAN 7% 4% Fiber Wireless Leased Line 1% Other 0% 1% 0% DSL 87% Ethernet/Lan Fiber Wireless DSL Other Cable Modem Leased Line
  16. 16. ….and has been growing, leaving other fixed technologies behind Technology Trend for Broadband ‐ India 7,000,000  6,000,000  , , 5,000,000  Subscribers 4,000,000  3,000,000  2,000,000  1,000,000  ‐ April– June 2008 July– September  October– January– March  April–June 2009 2008 December 2008 December 2008 2009 Ethernet/Lan Fiber Wireless DSL Other Cable Modem Leased Line Radio
  17. 17. Pre‐conditions for high access and usage of BBPre conditions for high access and usage of BB Coverage Regulatory barriers exist (e.g. spectrum) Affordable Access TechnologyBroadbandGrowth Services - Reasonable QoSE (e.g. IPTV, VoIP, e-ticketing, - Some evidence e-governance etc)t ) provided today -community access Low cost Terminals -cheaper computers? cheaper -”mobile-like” terminals
  18. 18. Prices are generally headed in the right direction:  g y gdown.  India has very competitive wholesale pricing Annual cost in USD for a 2Mbps, 2km DPLC (tail cost) 25,000  20,000  15,000  10,000  5,000  ‐ Bangladesh Pakistan India Bhutan Sri Lanka Maldives February 2008 October 2008 February 2009 October 2009
  19. 19. Retail prices also coming down: e.g. 2MBps Business connection prices in India dropping Annual cost in USD, 2Mbps Broadband business connection (unlimited  download) 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 Afghanistan Nepal Pakistan India Bhutan Sri Lanka Maldives February 2008 October 2008 February 2009 October 2009
  20. 20. Prices are low/reducing on basic residential packages also.  India on par with regional peers Annual cost, 256kbps Broadband residential connection (unlimited  A l t 256kb B db d id ti l ti ( li it d download) 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Afghanistan Nepal Bangladesh Pakistan India Bhutan Sri Lanka Maldives February 2008 October 2008 February 2009 October 2009
  21. 21. Mobile BB: India is not competitive, for obvious reasons Price per GB, 1Mbps speed, 1GB data limit mobile internet.  In USD 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Pakistan India Bhutan Sri Lanka Sources: India, http://www.bsnl.in/service/3G/3G_files/3g.htm / INR 399 for Day/anytime 1GB of usage. Pakistan (http://www.mobilinkinfinity.com/tariff/ Mobilink Infinity 5GB limit at 1MBps speed. Bhutan http://www.druknet.bt/btelecom/GPRSEDGE3G.html . Pakistan http://www.mobitel.lk/broadband/postpaid_internet.html
  22. 22. But price comparisons need to be done in relation to what the consumer gets – i.e. actual consumer gets i e actualexperienced speed per USD or  p p pRupee paid

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