Your SlideShare is downloading. ×

Helani galpaya

291

Published on

0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
291
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
0
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
2
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

Report content
Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
No notes for slide

Transcript

  • 1. Broadband Quality of Service Experience Chennai, India  November 3 2009
  • 2. Agenda• Broadband: atwhat cost ?  – Helani Galpaya, LIRNEasia• Innovation in Regulation: BB QoS monitoring – Chanuka Wattegama, LIRNEasia g• Research Findings – Prof Timothy Gonzalves TeNeT/IIT‐M Prof. Timothy Gonzalves, TeNeT/IIT M• Panel Discussion – Chair Prof Ashok Jhunjhunwala TeNeT/IIT M Chair: Prof Ashok Jhunjhunwala, TeNeT/IIT‐M – Operators
  • 3. About LIRNEasiaAbout LIRNEasia• “T i “To improve the lives of the people of the emerging Asia‐ th li f th l f th i Ai Pacific by facilitating their use of ICTs and related  infrastructures; by catalyzing the reform of laws, policies  f y y g f f p and regulations to enable those uses through the conduct  of policy‐relevant research, training and advocacy with  emphasis on building in situ expertise emphasis on building in‐situ expertise”• A regional ICT policy and regulation think tank – Scope: Asia (Pacific)• Research focused, not project implementation (except  pilots)• C Current cycle research in: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India,  t l h i Af h i t B l d h I di Indonesia, Maldives, Pakistan, Philippines, Sri Lanka,  Thailand (‘SAPTI’)
  • 4. Broadband : at what cost?  Some evidence from emerging Asia  Some evidence from emerging Asia Helani Galpaya Chennai, India  November 3 2009
  • 5. Mobiles: high growth through market mechanisms in Asia Nepal Bangladesh Afghanistan India Pakistan Sri Lanka 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 CAGR 2003-08 Active SIMs/100 inhab 2008 Source: ITU, data as of end 2008
  • 6. Lowest Total Cost of Ownership in the world in South AsiaSouth Asia Four S Asian countries in less-than-USD 5 TCO club among less than USD 77 emerging economies (average TCO = USD10.88)
  • 7. Helped by budget telecom model that is characterized by…• L ARPU’ Low ARPU’s  – Average ~USD 5 (Bangladesh USD 2 for some operators)• Mostly (over 80%) prepaid Mostly (over 80%) prepaid – low cost of serving (no bills, electronic re‐load, minimal 1‐800  customer care) ) – low customer acquisition cost (~USD 3.5) – low/no credit risk (pre‐paid and cash) – Regional negotiations for equipment; managed networks; • Low(er) Quality  necessary feature in early stages – “ “acceptable” call drop rates x2 of US/EU  bl ” ll d 2 f US/EU• High margins for operators  (decresing)
  • 8. Has given access to basic voice services even to  those at the Bottom of the Pyramid (BOP) in AsiaUsed a phone in the last 3 d h i h l 3 monthsth Bangladesh Pakistan India Sri Lanka Philippines Thailand% of BOP (outer  95% 96% 86% 88% 79% 77 %sample) Bangladesh Pakistan India Sri Lanka Sri Lanka Philippines Thailand% of BOP (outer  82% 66% 65% 77% 38% 72%sample) • Sample of over 11,000 BOP (SEC D and E) citizens.  Indian sample size over  3,500.   3 500
  • 9. Even to the BOP Rural Areas in IndiaEven to the BOP Rural Areas in India Last time respondent made/received  a call (% of  BOP teleusers) 100% 90% 80% 70% 2‐3  months ago 60% 1‐2 months ago 50% About a month ago 40% 2‐3 weeks ago 30% 1‐2 weeks ago 20% In the last one week 10% Yesterday / Today 0% Urban Rural India
  • 10. Ownership is less impressive, but high…Ownership is less impressive but high Total phone ownership (% of BOP teleusers) owners 91% 73% 63% 43% 41% 45%Bangladesh l d h Pakistan ki India di Sri Lanka Si k Philippines hili i Thailand h il d• Most choose to own a phone (rather than use others’ phones) for  convenience; cost is secondary convenience; cost is secondary
  • 11. …and growing.  Highest growth in India and growing Highest growth in India Total BOP phone ownership: 2006 vs 2008 (% of BOP teleusers) 91% 131%  73% 77% 63% increase 54% 43% 41% 45% 41% 36% 19% 2008 2006 2008 2006 2008 2006 2008 2006 2008 2006 2008Bangladesh Pakistan India Sri Lanka Philippines Thailand
  • 12. But in Broadband, India falling far behind OECD  countries Broadband penetration itants 30 per 100 inhabi 25 d subscribers p 20 15 xed broadband 10 5Total fix 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 India United Kingdom United States China Japan Germany
  • 13. And compares only moderately against South Asian peers Broadband subscriber per 100 SAARC countries 100, 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Bangladesh Bhutan India Maldives Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka
  • 14. But even in the absence of 3G/“real‐mobile BB” speeds, appetite for Mobile BB is high, and growing  Access to BB: fixed vs. mobile 140,000,000  120,000,000  120 000 000 100,000,000  80,000,000  80 000 000 60,000,000  1:19 ratio in favor of mobile 40,000,000 40,000,000  20,000,000  0  June 2008 September 2008 December 2008 March 2009 June 2009 Wireless subscribers capable of Accessing Data services/Internet  Fixed subscribers (all types) ( yp )
  • 15. In the fixed BB world, DSL is dominates In the fixed BB world DSL is dominates “Broadband” Technology Market share  Quarter ending June 2009 Cable Modem Ethernet/LAN 7% 4% Fiber Wireless Leased Line 1% Other 0% 1% 0% DSL 87% Ethernet/Lan Fiber Wireless DSL Other Cable Modem Leased Line
  • 16. ….and has been growing, leaving other fixed technologies behind Technology Trend for Broadband ‐ India 7,000,000  6,000,000  , , 5,000,000  Subscribers 4,000,000  3,000,000  2,000,000  1,000,000  ‐ April– June 2008 July– September  October– January– March  April–June 2009 2008 December 2008 December 2008 2009 Ethernet/Lan Fiber Wireless DSL Other Cable Modem Leased Line Radio
  • 17. Pre‐conditions for high access and usage of BBPre conditions for high access and usage of BB Coverage Regulatory barriers exist (e.g. spectrum) Affordable Access TechnologyBroadbandGrowth Services - Reasonable QoSE (e.g. IPTV, VoIP, e-ticketing, - Some evidence e-governance etc)t ) provided today -community access Low cost Terminals -cheaper computers? cheaper -”mobile-like” terminals
  • 18. Prices are generally headed in the right direction:  g y gdown.  India has very competitive wholesale pricing Annual cost in USD for a 2Mbps, 2km DPLC (tail cost) 25,000  20,000  15,000  10,000  5,000  ‐ Bangladesh Pakistan India Bhutan Sri Lanka Maldives February 2008 October 2008 February 2009 October 2009
  • 19. Retail prices also coming down: e.g. 2MBps Business connection prices in India dropping Annual cost in USD, 2Mbps Broadband business connection (unlimited  download) 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 Afghanistan Nepal Pakistan India Bhutan Sri Lanka Maldives February 2008 October 2008 February 2009 October 2009
  • 20. Prices are low/reducing on basic residential packages also.  India on par with regional peers Annual cost, 256kbps Broadband residential connection (unlimited  A l t 256kb B db d id ti l ti ( li it d download) 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Afghanistan Nepal Bangladesh Pakistan India Bhutan Sri Lanka Maldives February 2008 October 2008 February 2009 October 2009
  • 21. Mobile BB: India is not competitive, for obvious reasons Price per GB, 1Mbps speed, 1GB data limit mobile internet.  In USD 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Pakistan India Bhutan Sri Lanka Sources: India, http://www.bsnl.in/service/3G/3G_files/3g.htm / INR 399 for Day/anytime 1GB of usage. Pakistan (http://www.mobilinkinfinity.com/tariff/ Mobilink Infinity 5GB limit at 1MBps speed. Bhutan http://www.druknet.bt/btelecom/GPRSEDGE3G.html . Pakistan http://www.mobitel.lk/broadband/postpaid_internet.html
  • 22. But price comparisons need to be done in relation to what the consumer gets – i.e. actual consumer gets i e actualexperienced speed per USD or  p p pRupee paid

×