Budgeting 2009
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Budgeting 2009



Enhanced version of budgeting for seminar in Oct 2009

Enhanced version of budgeting for seminar in Oct 2009



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Budgeting 2009 Budgeting 2009 Presentation Transcript

  • Budgeting – A Management Tool
    Oct 23, 2009
    Dick Lam
  • Budget, in a nutshell
    Look at your chart of accounts or your monthly income statement
    Empty the cells by months
    Fill-in the figures you think that most likely reflect the following year situation
    Tell the people to act on it next year
  • Structure of the course
    Some underlying concepts
    Action Items
    Theory of Constraint
    Theory of Exchange
    Kaizen Plan
  • What am I doing here?
    Exert my influence to persuade you to accept budgeting in your business activities
    It is beneficial to the company and you
    Align your internal budgeting process to company budgeting
  • Factors of successful persuasion
    people like those who appreciate them
    mutual benefit
    like to listen those are alike to them
    make explicit commitment
    Hope, I could do the above for you
  • Sigmund Freud
    Interact with the outside world
  • Changing Mind
    What is in our mind?
    Idea & Concept
  • 7 Re to change people mind
    Representational Re-description
    Resources & Rewards
    Real world events
    口開神氣散, 舌動是非生!
    You CAN DO everything, but not all at once.
    You CAN DO everything, if it’s important enough for you to do.
    You CAN DO everything, but you may not be the best at everything.
    You CAN DO everything, but there will be limitations.
    You CAN DO everything, but you’ll need help.
  • This is me…
    BBA in Accountancy (HKBU)
    Master of Arts in E-Business (CityU)
    Fellow of ACCA
    Worked in various enterprises and industries, mainly manufacturing in mainland China, focus on management accounting, business strategy, tax planning, supply chain management and new business setup in PRC
    Before 2009 working in a US company as Director of Administrative Services
    Now, Operation Controller in a Fortune 500 company
    Email: dicklam128@hotmail.com
    Blog: http://dicklam128.wordpress.com
    and more ….
  • Reference
    Sonshi - http://www.sonshi.com/learn.html
    Tao - http://www.wenhuacn.com/zhexue/daojiao/dianji/01laozi.htm
    The World is Flat
    Harvard Business Review, Dec 2007 Issue
    Changing Mind
    5 Minds for the Future
    Maverick at works
    Halo Effect
    Myself & Other More Important Matters
    社會心理學 – 浙江教育出版社
  • Content
    The need for budget & budgeting
    Reasons for ineffective budget
    Budgeting Process
    Application of Budget
    Paradox of Budget
    Implementation of Budget
    In-depth meaning of budgeting
    How little we know, how much to learn…
  • Why do you come to the class?
  • Another Angle….
    Who is keeping the check book in your family?
    Do you plan for next year or the following months for your family?
    Your spending is to:
    fulfill need and want of you & your family
    generate income for the above purpose
    Family = Father and mother i love you
  • Social Exchange Theory
    • people will do things that are rewarding
    the frequency of a person doing an action depends on the value of the outcome and probability of getting it
    everything we do has costs (to be minimized) and rewards (to be maximized) associated
    Maximization subject to constraint
    We are all busy to keep our ledger balanced!!
  • What do we exchange?
    Social Respect
    Social Support
    Social Recognition
    Where there is unequal inter-dependence (reliance upon one side), power emerges as one owes to the other
    Not to be served but to serve
  • Servant Leadership vs. Superleadership
    Servant Leadership represents a philosophy in which leaders focus on increased service to others rather than to oneself.
    A superleader is someone who leads others to lead themselves by developing employees’ self-management skills.
    Superleaders attempt to increase employees’ feelings of personal control and intrinsic motivation.
    非以役人, 乃役于人
  • Servant Leadership – 10 Characteristics
    Commitment to the growth of people
    Building community
    Robert Greenleaf
    S…See the Future
    E…Engage and Develop People
    R…Reinvent Continuously
    V…Value Results and Relationships
    E…Embody the Values
    Source: “Leading at a Higher Level”, Ken Blanchard
  • Manageable Change/Calculated Risk
    Change is exciting when it is done by us, threatening when it is done to us
    Budget is the outline of any manageable change for the coming year
  • Do not ask the Lord to guide your footsteps if you are not willing to move your feet.
    Author Unknown
  • Before you start to think of Budgeting
    Do you regularly read the financial statement?
    Do you regularly read the departmental profit & loss?
    What kind of target are you assigned?
    Market Share?
    Net Income?
    Offering ownership to promote commitment
  • In God, we trust; all others bring data
    Profit = Sales - Cost
    Everything happens in a company will finally go to PNL
  • 夫未战而庙算胜者 得算多也
    未战而庙算不胜者 得算少也
    多算胜 少算不胜 而況于无算乎
    孙子兵法- 始计篇
    Say goodbye to all your Tacit Knowledge
  • Before doing battle, in the temple one calculates and will win, because many calculations were made;
    before doing battle, in the temple one calculates and will not win, because few calculations were made;
    many calculations, victory, few calculations, no victory, then how much less so when no calculations?
    Calculation – The Art of War
  • Human beings is not rational
    but rationalizing!!
  • Why rationalizing?
    Deep need for consistency
    When doing something, we need to have consistency and alignment between our actions and our belief
    Where there is inconsistency, either change
    What they are doing; or
    What they believe
    Worry about what people think about us if inconsistent
    Excessive money reward is an excuse of wrong-doing
  • What is the need?
    Bonus Determination
    But should the profit target be after the bonus?
    Resources Allocation
    A battle for struggling resources
    Setting Expectation
    Under-committed but over-performed; or,
    Over-committed but under-performed
    Political Tool or Economic Tool
    Can you determine your budget ultimately?
  • Primary value of budgeting
    A tool for simulation/induction
    Help us identify risk & opportunity for the following year
    It is a financial model
    • Objectives
    • Assumption
    • Strategy
    • Constraint
    • Methodology
    • Calculation
    • Walkforward / Defense
    • Contingency
    • Execution Plan
    • Conclusion
    Budgeting – An iterative process
  • 2. Reasons for ineffective budget
    • It is an exercise of top management
    • It is of no value to real practice
    • Nobody monitor the departure of budget if any
    • Who is doing the budget? Or who is doing my budget?
    • Do you have the same perspective as previous slide towards budgeting?
  • Top Down vs. Bottom Up
    • Failure to link up the budget to daily operation
    • Plan lags behind reality
    • Budget is a dream (lofty goals)
    • Who takes care of it?
    • System compatibility
    • Failure to link up the budget to performance
    • No reward system linked to budget
    • Manipulation
    • No Budgeting basis
    • Zero Base vs. Incremental Base
  • Devil is hidden in the detail!!
    • Too many estimation without solid grounds
    • Management assigned target
    • Inertia
    • Too many buffer / pretext
    • Mixed up of new projects with old one
    • Too detail will lead to blame inevitably
  • 3. Budgeting Process
    What is the objectives of your budget?
  • Assumptions
    What is the inflation rate? Economic Growth %?
    What is the % increase in salary? General and Promotion – the overall increase ceiling
    What is the % between direct and indirect staff?
    Exchange rate, Rent, Contract price
    What else…
  • Your strategy to target…
    There is no leader without at least a follower…
  • Constraint
    Only project with payback period < 3 years being considered
    Headcount Ratio
    Direct vs. Indirect - 3 : 1
    Gross Margin > 15%
    Emerging market at least 10%
    Cost Reduction: 5% on SG&A from 2007
    With scarcity, we have economics.
  • The Theory of Constraint
    5 Focusing Steps
    Identify the constraint
    Decide how to exploit the constraint
    Subordinate all other processes to above decision
    Elevate the constraint
    If, as a result of these steps, the constraint has moved, return to Step 1. Don't let inertia become the constraint
  • TOC Thinking Process
    Gain agreement on the problem
    Gain agreement on the direction for a solution
    Gain agreement that the solution solves the problem
    Agree to overcome any potential negative ramifications
    Agree to overcome any obstacles to implementation
  • What is your constraint?
    Any way to broaden it?
    Can you pinpoint the constraint year by year over the past 5 years?
    Why the constraint in the past disappear? And how?
    Balance the cost & benefit of doing it…
    Are you the constraint of the budget?
  • Questions of change
    What to change?
    What to change to?
    How to cause the change?
    How to maintain the change?
    McCain: I use my career to promote change..
  • How to change
    Establish a sense of urgency
    Create the guiding coalition
    Develop a vision and strategy
    Communicate the change vision
    Empower broad-based action
    Generate short-term wins
    Consolidate gains and produce more change
    Anchor new approach in the culture
  • What should be your focus?
    Internal vs. External
    Organization Structure
    Resource re-allocation
    Rightsizing / Business Process Re-engineering
    Organization Culture
    Walk the Talk and then Talk the Walk
  • Methodology & Calculation
  • Simple Formula
  • Sales
  • Sales: The Beginning of Budgeting
    Everything starts from Sales
    Everything must be related to Sales
    • Cost
    • Expenses
    • Headcount
    • Capital Expenditure
    Focus on value-added cost & expenses
    Critical: Who determine the sales target?
    Good news: the Africans do not wear shoes!!
  • Sales Bridge
    2009  2010
    Market/Customers Segmentation
    Identify the risk & opportunities
    Outline sales strategy & execution plan
    Tell the story of Sales
    Truth to the Teller
    Truth to the Audience
    Truth to the Moment
    Truth to the Mission
    (HBR Dec 2007)
    Storytelling: a force for turning dreams into goals and then into results
  • What is your sales strategy in 2010?
    Selling product or services (what services?)
    Segmentation / Classification Market/Product
    Existing Business vs. New Business
    Level of confidence
    Do you have the right people in place?
    If no, then…..
    What is your sales expense budget?
    Finish your job; people in China is hungry for yours
  • Projection > Prediction
    Critical Elements: Surprise and Fulfillment
  • Projection > Prediction
    只要信, 不要問; 我办事, 你放心!?
  • Questions to new program
    Is there any measurable evidence of the value of the program under review?
    Are the goals and objectives of the program important enough to warrant the expenditure being made?
    What would happen if the program were not provided at all?
    Are there other less costly and more effective ways of achieving these objectives?
    Walk in stupid everyday
  • Last 2 Questions…
    Where would the program fit in if all programs were displayed in order of importance?
    Would the benefits be greater if a portion of the funds spent on the program under review were used instead of other programs?
    Keep it fun
  • Keep the sales
    Why customers loyal to your company?
    Have you ever got the satisfaction score from your customers?
    How do your customers look at you?
    Exploration vs. Exploitation
    Sales & Marketing / Customer Service
    Product Engineering (PE)
    Make your people happy so that they can make your customer happier
  • Customer Loyalty

  • Brand is the psychological contractbetween a company and its employees and between those employees and their customers
    We have to keep doing more than our customers expect us to; we can’t worry about what other companies might do.

    Mavericks at Work
  • But our PRC Competitors defeat us by …
    offering good enough products
    lower price
    massage & rebate
    Dragon at your door!
  • Re-define your own standard
    the GiveAway %
    the Quality standard
    the Brand
    the cost structure
    Pre-moterm Analysis!!!
  • Keep the people and their heart…
    Why people loyal to your company?
    Have you ever got the satisfaction score from your people?
    How do your people look at you?
    Exploration vs. Exploitation
    Find the right people within and without the organization
    Elicit the intelligence from the incumbents
    Keep the likeables, dump the Assholes.
  • Low-cost ways to please …..
    Personal thank – an employee for a specific job well-done
    Specific praise– in a letter or thank-you note
    Provide information– as possible about the company
    Include in decision– in the decisions you make
    Give Opportunity – to learn as many new skills
    Celebrate successes– with passion
    Provide free time & flexibility– at their convenience
    People quit people, not companies
  • Materials
  • Bills of Material
    Convert the sales budget to production budget
    Is there any time lag between sales & production?
    In other words, any inventory days for finished goods?
  • Revisit the assumption in BOM
    In house vs. Outsourcing
    Scrap Rate
    List of scrap rules
    Too low or too high?
    Zero defect rate? Target DPPM
    Any buffer? Simple scrap vs. Compound scrap
    Wastage is allowed (not aware of) when time is good
  • Do you have the detail?
    Budget in Store Keeping Unit (SKU)
    Determine the cost of goods sold
    Identify what volume of raw materials required
    So as to set out the following works:
    Purchasing strategy about pricing / vendor selection / order allocation / replacement
    Measurement: Purchase Price Variance (PPV)
    Budgeted Inventory Level
    Obsolete Inventory in the warehouse
    Anything else?
  • NOW
    Know the Present,
    Know what you “really” have
  • Past Purchasing Activities!!!!
    Any new suppliers introduced?
    Any suppliers disqualified?
    What PPV generated?
    Order allocation on the right track? (i.e. according to suppliers score card)
    Any sourcing changed and the effect?
    Any replacement and the effect?
    To whom do you review first and how?
    前事不忘, 後事之師
  • Non-refundable VAT
    Any implication?
  • Illustration of PPV
    PPV = Standard Cost – Purchase Price
  • Material Requirement Planning
    How do you measure it?
    What is your target inventory days?
    Pull In / Push Out
  • How much do you know your purchasing?
    Order placement & delivery arrangement
    SPQ / MOQ
    Lead time
    Customers composition of your major vendors
    Passion attracts Passion!!
  • Labor
  • Routing
    Process by process for completion of the production of a product
    Labor hours required for each process of a particular labor type
    In principles, it is the labor hours for each work station
    Then, no. of laborer is determined for a particular volume of production
  • Takt time….
    The routing hours should be the actual working hours, i.e. hours under perfect state of motion, no waiting
    As a result, efficiency factor can be measured
  • Efficiency & Low Season Factor
  • How to deal with fluctuation?
    Pre-build, but cost of holding inventory
    No pay leave, annual leave in low season
    Alliance with other factories
  • 4 unexpected leadership qualities
    Selectively reveal your weaknesses
    Rely heavily on your intuition to gauge the appropriate timing and course of actions
    Manage employee with tough empathy
    Capitalize on differences
    Rob Goffee, Gareth Jones
    Internalization vs. Understanding
  • Overhead
  • The detail worksheet
    Simple is beauty!
  • From macro to micro…
    2 levels are enough
    Working is even more important
    Thanks to Comparison: We found beauty!
  • Another example: Traveling
    Is it too detail?
  • Income Statement
    Putting Sales, Cost & Expenses altogether
    But how do you work out the cost & expenses detail?
    Product PNL / Customer PNL
    CQ + PQ > IQ
  • Zero Base PNL
    Identify the cost nature so as to determine the breakeven point
    Then, is it possible to reduce the fixed cost?
    What minimum capacity should be maintained?
  • A simple example …..
  • What is the fixed cost?
  • Profit Map
    Total Cost
    Fixed Cost
    Variable Cost
    Breakeven point
  • A Paradox of Pricing Formula
    Price = Unit Cost + Mark-up %
    Cost: Variable Cost, Fixed cost
    Variable Cost: more output, fixed unit cost
    Fixed Cost: Lump Sum / Output
    more output, less unit cost
    less output, more unit cost
    Suggestion: Convert fixed cost to variable cost as far as possible
  • How detail?
    No free lunch!!
    Nothing is impossible provided there is sufficient resources
    Work out the detail of resources requirement so as to materialize the goal, regardless of its nature – self determined or assigned
    Detail is to differentiate your aspiration from dream
    The more the detail, the stronger the confidence
  • In the new middle, we are all temp!
    • Do you know your business?
    • If yes, do you know the expenses patternor relationship with sales?
    • If yes, can you tell in the budget?
  • What do we need to do?
    Identify the cash need upfront
    Uncover what leads to liquidity issue
    Smooth out the cash deficit & surplus
    Evaluate the cost of capital
    知彼知己,百戰不殆 ;
  • Poka Yoke (Avoid any inadvertent Errors)
    Unintentional Errors
    No Benchmarking Standard
  • Poka Yoke in action - Reasonableness
    Trend by month
    Compare with previous years
    Compare with current year forecast
    Compare with industrial standard
    Check figure
    Encourage Q & A
  • Walkforward / Defense
    EBITDA bridge
    Quantify all identified risk & opportunities
    Give detail of cost reduction and others
    Defense your budget
    Prepare the detail for challenge
    Identify the focus area of Income Statement
  • What is cost saving plan?
  • Any productivity improvement plan?
    How do you measure operator productivity?
    How to improve it?
    What is the financial impact?
    7 Waste
    8th Waste …..
    What is the target Hourly Rate?
    Labor cost & Overhead
  • More on Walkforward template
    Projects profitability highlight (new/lost)
    Cost reduction/increase highlight
    Variable Budget
  • New Project Evaluation …..
  • Balance Sheet Items
    Fixed Asset
  • Working Capital
  • Cash Cycle
  • Cashflow
    Fund for investment opportunity
    Rainy-days fund
    Profit without cash inflow is fictitious profit
    Usage of cashflow statement in budgeting
    Notify when cash injection needed and cash return happens
    Yardstick for liquidity performance
    世路難行錢為馬, 愁城欲破酒為軍
  • Cashflow working
    Net Income is not cash which include non-cash spending – depreciation & amortization
    Receivable is cash held by customers
    A/R , Cash 
    Payable is cash hoarded from suppliers
    A/P, Cash 
    Capex is spending ahead
    Your cash position is reflected by the bank statement/cash ledger
  • Cashflow template
    Sweet lemon; Sour grape!?
  • Weekly cashflow forecast
  • Contingency
    Challenge of Assumptions
    Sensitivity Analysis
    Backup/Compensating plan
    If plan A fails, plan B will follow
    Opportunity of Cost Innovation
  • Execution Plan (Monitoring)
    How to measure?
    Key Performance Indicators (KPI)
    The higher the better
    Return on equity
    Key Risk Indicators (KRI)
    The lower the better
    Overdue Debt to A/R
    Look at your IS at different dimension
    Customer P&L
    Product P&L
    Go fast, Walk alone; Go far, Walk together
  • A picture worths more than 100 words
  • Rolling forecast
    e.g. 3 Actual + 9 Forecast
    Monitor month by month
    Why the entertainment rise up so significantly?
    Why the entertainment not link to sales?
    • Why do we spend so much to future customers?
    • Why …..
    We do budget every month
  • Application of Budget
    Commitment vs. Compliance
    Commitment generates productive behavior without the need for monitoring
    Compliance may result in similar behavior, but rarely generates initiative. Compliance strategies rely on external enforcement
    夫禮者,忠信之薄而亂之首 !
  • Review
    Link the budget to performance appraisal
    Bridge the gap
    Evaluate the degree of achievement every month
    Any remedy or compensating control?
  • Paradox of Budget
    • Meet the budget, no significant deviation
    • Exceeds the budget, under-commit but over-perform
    • Lags behind the budget, over-commit but under-perform
    Be careful! When you start the game, it will continue for good
  • How detail do we need?
    Detail (Logic)
    People need to prove they are trustable
  • Back to Basic
    Socrates: the great inquisitor
  • In-depth meaning of budget
    A break for management to think about next year
    To determine the corrective actions required
    To determine the yardstick of next year performance
    To allocate resources based on certain conditions
    To bring(force) everybody to the strategy
    Think Ahead
  • Revisit:Sales & CostCustomers & SuppliersAssets & Liabilities
    Let the figure talk on solid ground
  • Sales – the source of budget
    How to retain the existing customer?
    How to uncover the intrusion of low cost competitor?
    Is the new program profitable and cash-collectible?
    Do we have sufficient/correct segmentation?
    Don’t expect our employees can make customers happy if they are not happy
  • R-W-W
    Is it Real?
    Can we Win?
    Is it Worth doing?
  • 5 R – Cost saving strategy
    Why does a particular expense need to incur? Is there a way to totally remove this expense?
    If not possible to remove this expense, can we replace the function with a cheaper one?
    One to say Yes, Two to say No.
  • Reduce
    If not possible to remove it, is there a way to reduce the spending?
    We should think about request for price reduction from supplier or source alternative supplier.
    There is no repeated fluke!
  • Redesign
    If not possible to reduce, can we re-design the process to utilize the scarce resources?
    Kaizen should be a continuous process.
    There should be a regular review of existing process by freshman.
    The old process creator should only act as a information provider but not member of new Kaizen group.
    沒有最好 只有更好
  • Redistribute
    If not possible to redesign the process, can we have the function to share its value to different functional area as well as the cost?
    Maximization subject to constraint is maxim not only in economics but also in cost saving perspective.
    Great intelligence comes from heart, not mind
  • Step forwards to your Suppliers & Customers
    Stand still or fly?
  • Budgeting is a practice for making decision
  • Business Integrity
    The company need to have the framework to run the business
    This is the basis for building trust
    The way applied in budgeting is part of the foundation
    The leader of an organization must be willing to open up to ideas for betterment
    Use budgeting as the 1st step – A foreground for open-minded discussion
    A small step today, A big step tomorrow
  • Organization Culture
    “It is a collective of
    the Values – ideas about what in life seems important
    the Conformed Norms – expectations of behavior in different situations
    the Artifacts – derivedthings or materials that abet a culture,
    that influence the behavior of the members of the society and helps them to cope with their world and with one another; these are transmitted from generation to generation, through learning and imitation…”
    Tough Empathy
  • Culture Shaping Moment:
    Every breathe you take, every move you make, they are watching you
    The daily words, behavior, events, and decisions that reinforce who you want to be
    Create experienced meaningfulness!
    A learning organization
  • My experience in budgeting cycle
    A chance for me to practice and discuss the whole business
    I need to demonstrate the capacity of my mindset, be bold to raise questions
    Further enhance the conviction I learn from 5 Minds for the Future:
    • Disciplinary Mind
    • Synthesizing Mind
    • Creative Mind
    • Respectful Mind
    • Ethical Mind
    百川異趣, 必會於海; 萬國殊途, 必通諸夏
  • Johari Window
    Joe and Harry suggested, be a better functioning person if you could make pane D as large as possible
    Nobody is as smart as everybody
  • Acculturation
  • Peripheral Thinking….
    Do you budget for the following?
    Order Lead Time
    Policy & Procedure(SOP)
    Staff Turnover Rate
    Employee satisfaction
    Social Capital
    But, why should I believe you?
  • Some sidetracking
    I cannot ask for it
    I can accept being trusted or give trust
    When I trust, I expect something happen
    When I trust, I take the risk
    It liberates and mobilizes human agency, release creative, uninhibited, innovative, entrepreneurial activism toward other people
  • To be trustworthy
    I need to be financially healthy
    proved by the Balance Sheet & PNL
    I need to meet the expectation of the creditors, suppliers, customers & employees
    I need to be consistent with what I said and intended to do
  • 墨子 – 修身編
  • Plant your own garden,
    decorate your own soul,
    instead of waiting for someone to bring you flowers.
    Veronica A Shoffstall
  • What am I talking about till now?
    Financial Statements & its construction
    Management by applying the financial model
    Walk through the business cycle of a financial year
    Raise questions to elicit intelligence
    Nothing more…
    But we call it BUDGETING
    Early to bed and early to rise, make a man healthy, wealthy and wise
  • dicklam128@hotmail.com