Transport Modelling for Transport   and Land Use Sustainability: lessons and challenges from East     Asia and the Middle ...
Contents1. Why listen to me?2. Modellers’ / forecasters’ failings3. Challenges caused by rapid development4. Frequent over...
Why Listen To Me?• Rapid development can lead to boom-bust  cycles/ other displacements (“black swans”)• Lessons from “bef...
“Success is dangerous. One begins to copy oneself, and to copy oneself ismore dangerous than to copy others.         It le...
But have Modellers been Successful?Looking just at toll roads, i.e. models with afocus on one route only:• Average initial...
Are We Simply Biassed?Differences in outturn patronage (1st year):• ≈ 82% of lender-commissioned forecasts• ≈ 66% if commi...
Groupthink and Agency Theory?To make (new) things happen requires optimism• But do we lose too much of our skepticism?Are ...
“We must be skeptical even of our          skepticism”       Bertrand RussellTransport Modelling for Transport and Land Us...
What is Rapid Development?• Rapid population growth (people or %)• Rapid economic growth• Substantial redevelopment: new p...
Keeping Track of Rapid Development• Which data are still up-to-date?• Can institutions and transit operators cope?• Can th...
Implicit Acceptance of Eternal Boom• “We will not return to the old boom and  bust”, Gordon Brown, March 2007   – and over...
Can We Reliably Forecast Outcomes?Development ≠ Occupancy:• Lag-times for uptake• Competition between new sites    Oversup...
Forecasting or Merely Extrapolation?• Models based upon past data• Legacy transport systems for past needs• At best, model...
Before and After Studies are Critical• Assess forecasting performance of models• Identify strengths and weaknesses• Ask wh...
Adaptive Expectations and the Cycle                                                                    After boom:        ...
Catch 22: Example of Early RailwaysIn UK, many railway companies set up & went bankrupt• Yet those towns without railways ...
Forewarned is Forearmed• If we’re aware of problems we can start to  address them• But there are also other frequent overs...
Frequent Planning Oversights• Can happen in almost any project• Design guidance notes/ best practice  checklists can help•...
Mid-Valley / Abdullah Hukum• Mid-Valley Megamall, in the suburbs of Kuala  Lumpur:   – Opened November 1999   – shopping m...
Proximity but Severance          Abdullah           Hukum                                                    Mid-Valley   ...
Abdullah Hukum StationElevated Station, so should be easy to build a pedestrianfootbridge!  Transport Modelling for Transp...
Following Criticism, KTM to the Rescue…August 2004: mall served by Komuter rail, following criticism   Transport Modelling...
Lack of Integration• Narrow definition of project interests:  “compete” rather than “collaborate”   – Despite transit requ...
“Compete” between Transit Lines!?Sadly, this can be even worse…• Bangkok Skytrain “versus” Blue Line Subway   – Actual res...
Bangkok, Thailand                                               Skytrain:                                               • ...
Kuala Lumpur Sentral Stations                                                                 400 metres, not             ...
It Might Look Good on a Map, but…In Amman, buses were “highly accessible”, asmost homes/ offices were near to routes, but:...
Amman, JordanTransport Modelling for Transport and Land Use Sustainability:  lessons and challenges from East Asia and the...
Building a Metro is not EnoughIn Tianjin, a number of new metro lines planned,but bus companies (all under the public Tian...
Tianjin, ChinaTransport Modelling for Transport and Land Use Sustainability:  lessons and challenges from East Asia and th...
Public Transport – A Mode of Last Resort? Traditionally, PT for those without access to a car • Social need and low cost •...
Access/ Egress – Oft Forgotten!                      Are these incorporated into your                      models?Transpor...
Better Pedestrian Networks are Possible              Hong Kong’s               Elevated               Walkway             ...
Inter-Modal IntegrationFractal approach:• Begin with strategic routes/ demand analysis• Then feeder modes/ routes• Potenti...
SuperblocksIn Bangkok & Dubai, deriving often from land ownershipor development patterns:• No through roads or functional ...
Additional Vehicle MileageEven a short journey becomes long:• Walkers may need to find a taxi to cross road• Drivers may h...
Assessing Extent of Excess MileageCombine transport modelling and GIS:• Trip matrices for interzonal demand• Compare crow-...
Urban Form & Development Density• Determines realistic potential patronage and  requirements for feeder services• High den...
High Density Ribbon Development• Hong Kong is naturally  suited to high capacity, high  frequency rapid transit• But this ...
Cost versus CapacitySource: Montassar DRAIEF-SYSTRA; World Bank   Transport Modelling for Transport and Land Use Sustainab...
Uncertainty & Forecast PerspectivesTransport demand forecasts in general arebeset with uncertainty, including:• Land use/ ...
Uncertainty & Forecast PerspectivesA spread of probability:• Central Case (for transport planning)• Low Case (for financin...
Uncertainty & Forecast Perspectives                                                                    Central Case       ...
Value-Capture Opportunities• Property development (Hong Kong model)• Shops in stations (but don’t congest stations)• Adver...
Transport Policy• In the long term anything is possible, but what is  feasible?• As, in the short term constraints are the...
Transport Policy and Modelling• Heavy infrastructure can be popular with  politicians   – Photo-op: opening a bridge or tr...
Thank YouRichard Di BonaDirector, LLA Consultancy Ltd (Hong Kong)and Independent Consultantrfdibona@yahoo.com; richard@lla...
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Transport Modelling For Transport And Land Use Sustainability Lessons And Challenges From East Asia And The Middle East

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Presented at San Francisco/ Bay Area ITE Modeling Workshop, San Francisco, CA, USA, 1 April 2011

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Transport Modelling For Transport And Land Use Sustainability Lessons And Challenges From East Asia And The Middle East

  1. 1. Transport Modelling for Transport and Land Use Sustainability: lessons and challenges from East Asia and the Middle East Richard Di Bona Independent Consultant andDirector (part-time), LLA Consultancy Ltd, Hong Kong 4th Annual San Francisco Bay Area ITE Modeling Workshop, San Francisco, USA, 1 April 2011
  2. 2. Contents1. Why listen to me?2. Modellers’ / forecasters’ failings3. Challenges caused by rapid development4. Frequent oversights in planning and their implications5. Relationship between urban form and appropriate transit types6. Uncertainty and the need for multi- perspective strategic forecasting7. Transport policy Transport Modelling for Transport and Land Use Sustainability: lessons and challenges from East Asia and the Middle East
  3. 3. Why Listen To Me?• Rapid development can lead to boom-bust cycles/ other displacements (“black swans”)• Lessons from “before”, “during” and “after” events w.r.t. how to model transport systems• Given long-run nature of strategic forecasts, similar challenges likely in “stable & mature” cities over a forecast horizon (e.g. sub-prime)• Two-way learning between “developed” and “developing” environments! Transport Modelling for Transport and Land Use Sustainability: lessons and challenges from East Asia and the Middle East
  4. 4. “Success is dangerous. One begins to copy oneself, and to copy oneself ismore dangerous than to copy others. It leads to sterility” Pablo Picasso Transport Modelling for Transport and Land Use Sustainability: lessons and challenges from East Asia and the Middle East
  5. 5. But have Modellers been Successful?Looking just at toll roads, i.e. models with afocus on one route only:• Average initial year traffic ≈ 70% of forecast – (Bain, R. & Wilkins, M. “Credit Implications of Traffic Risk in Start-Up Toll Facilities”, Standard & Poor’s, September 2002)• Forecast error often consistent over years 1-5 – (Bain, R. & Polakovic, L, “Traffic Forecasting Risk Study Update 2005: Through Ramp-Up and Beyond”, Standard & Poor’s, August 2005)• And remember, at this seminar we’re looking at assessing “game changing” initiatives, which may be system-wide! Transport Modelling for Transport and Land Use Sustainability: lessons and challenges from East Asia and the Middle East
  6. 6. Are We Simply Biassed?Differences in outturn patronage (1st year):• ≈ 82% of lender-commissioned forecasts• ≈ 66% if commissioned by others – (Bain, R. & Wilkins, M. “Credit Implications of Traffic Risk in Start-Up Toll Facilities”, Standard & Poor’s, September 2002)• Suggests forecast bias/ influence by clients (agreeing those GDP/ land use assumptions?) – (Brinkman, P.A. The Ethical Challenges and Professional Responses of Travel Demand Forecasters, PhD Dissertation, University of California at Berkeley, 2003)• Yet practitioners have only very weak acceptance of bias in their work – (Di Bona, R.F. What are the Key Risks Associated with Private Investment in Start-Up Toll Road Projects in Developing East Asian Economies?, MBA Dissertation, Henley Management College, 2006) Transport Modelling for Transport and Land Use Sustainability: lessons and challenges from East Asia and the Middle East
  7. 7. Groupthink and Agency Theory?To make (new) things happen requires optimism• But do we lose too much of our skepticism?Are benefits/ returns overstated to get approval?• It’s our chance to bring our new ideas to fruition• Or client’s staff’s chance for a success bonusAre we afraid of emphasising critical risks tosuperiors or breaking with “group consensus”?Note: Every 5 years, 80% of businesses fail, sotransport modellers are not alone! Transport Modelling for Transport and Land Use Sustainability: lessons and challenges from East Asia and the Middle East
  8. 8. “We must be skeptical even of our skepticism” Bertrand RussellTransport Modelling for Transport and Land Use Sustainability: lessons and challenges from East Asia and the Middle East
  9. 9. What is Rapid Development?• Rapid population growth (people or %)• Rapid economic growth• Substantial redevelopment: new population &/or business centres, new satellite towns• What about major new transport infrastructure – another “game changer”? – Hong Kong Airport Core Programme (airport, rail, expressway and land use developments) – Maybe in the USA: High Speed Rail (stations and surrounds) or even PRT roll-out? Transport Modelling for Transport and Land Use Sustainability: lessons and challenges from East Asia and the Middle East
  10. 10. Keeping Track of Rapid Development• Which data are still up-to-date?• Can institutions and transit operators cope?• Can they react to events? – Changing traveller behaviour and preferences• Can they meet obligations, such as: – Bus network restructuring – Interchange facilities planning & development• Is transit viable during periods of change? (i.e. when patterns are unsettled)• Do agencies have authority, capability and time to manage/ control/ plan/ review/ enforce?• Do we really consider the above in our models? Transport Modelling for Transport and Land Use Sustainability: lessons and challenges from East Asia and the Middle East
  11. 11. Implicit Acceptance of Eternal Boom• “We will not return to the old boom and bust”, Gordon Brown, March 2007 – and over 100 times subsequently!• “But this time/ country is different”• Skyscraper Theory – (Lawrence, A. “The Curse Bites: Skyscraper Index Strikes”, Dresdner Kleinwort Benson Research, March 1999) Transport Modelling for Transport and Land Use Sustainability: lessons and challenges from East Asia and the Middle East
  12. 12. Can We Reliably Forecast Outcomes?Development ≠ Occupancy:• Lag-times for uptake• Competition between new sites Oversupply? ↓ Partial completionBut where? Uncertainty! Transport Modelling for Transport and Land Use Sustainability: lessons and challenges from East Asia and the Middle East
  13. 13. Forecasting or Merely Extrapolation?• Models based upon past data• Legacy transport systems for past needs• At best, model revision/ re-basing is “catch up”• Trip generation, distribution, mode choice characteristics prone to change• Affordability can change (decreasing during “boom” and then increasing after “slump”) – Income levels & real disposable income• Danger of extrapolating a boom to develop infrastructure which opens during a slump Transport Modelling for Transport and Land Use Sustainability: lessons and challenges from East Asia and the Middle East
  14. 14. Before and After Studies are Critical• Assess forecasting performance of models• Identify strengths and weaknesses• Ask where improvement is feasible – But remember we can never be perfect! – Planning data or behavioural parameters?• Singapore North East (metro) Line – had a major before & after study as it tied-in with major land development: – Planning data / uptake of units was an issue – Lag-times/ ramp-up under-estimated – Most mode-purpose distribution functions stood up well – But those related to social activities and land uses initially underdeveloped in the area performed poorly – people had to travel further to fulfill such activities Transport Modelling for Transport and Land Use Sustainability: lessons and challenges from East Asia and the Middle East
  15. 15. Adaptive Expectations and the Cycle After boom: During late boom:An economy or • Fewer projects • Over-forecast • Less readinessa new industry • Many failures to cope with(e.g. High • Lots of projects recovery started, manySpeed Rail) fewer projects completed Pre-boom: During early boom: • Some growth • Under-forecast • Profits/ success • Profits/ success • Leads to more projects • Yet more projects Transport Modelling for Transport and Land Use Sustainability: lessons and challenges from East Asia and the Middle East
  16. 16. Catch 22: Example of Early RailwaysIn UK, many railway companies set up & went bankrupt• Yet those towns without railways faded• So they were good to have but not to invest inIn the US, experience was similar but arguably moreextreme as railways opened up the mid-west and west• Exhibited cyclical booms and crises: cycles are “particularly violent in the case of… emerging industries and emerging companies, which grow and evolve rapidly” (Faber, M. Tomorrow’s Gold, CLSA Books, 2002)US High Speed Rail, & urban PRT to face similar issues? Transport Modelling for Transport and Land Use Sustainability: lessons and challenges from East Asia and the Middle East
  17. 17. Forewarned is Forearmed• If we’re aware of problems we can start to address them• But there are also other frequent oversights which we can try to avoid• Minimise risk where we can Transport Modelling for Transport and Land Use Sustainability: lessons and challenges from East Asia and the Middle East
  18. 18. Frequent Planning Oversights• Can happen in almost any project• Design guidance notes/ best practice checklists can help• But rush-to-open can exacerbate problems (e.g. not all components ready at same time)• Are the following examples really considered in our transport models? Transport Modelling for Transport and Land Use Sustainability: lessons and challenges from East Asia and the Middle East
  19. 19. Mid-Valley / Abdullah Hukum• Mid-Valley Megamall, in the suburbs of Kuala Lumpur: – Opened November 1999 – shopping mall, offices, hotel (now 2 hotels) – 1.7m sq.ft. leasable space: once Asia’s biggest mall• Abdullah Hukum Station on Putra LRT (now Kelana Jaya LRT): – Line opened September 1998 – Achieved a small fraction of predicted patronage Transport Modelling for Transport and Land Use Sustainability: lessons and challenges from East Asia and the Middle East
  20. 20. Proximity but Severance Abdullah Hukum Mid-Valley Station Megamall 250m (800 feet) Kuala Lumpur RiverBut did Mid-Valley load onto LRT in the model(s)? Transport Modelling for Transport and Land Use Sustainability: lessons and challenges from East Asia and the Middle East
  21. 21. Abdullah Hukum StationElevated Station, so should be easy to build a pedestrianfootbridge! Transport Modelling for Transport and Land Use Sustainability: lessons and challenges from East Asia and the Middle East
  22. 22. Following Criticism, KTM to the Rescue…August 2004: mall served by Komuter rail, following criticism Transport Modelling for Transport and Land Use Sustainability: lessons and challenges from East Asia and the Middle East
  23. 23. Lack of Integration• Narrow definition of project interests: “compete” rather than “collaborate” – Despite transit requiring accessible land use – Despite developments having increased worth/ value from accessibility• Not an isolated case, e.g. Bangkok Skytrain – Initially no walkways into adjacent buildings – And even: no escalators to stations / platforms – Yet not taken account of in pre-opening modelling Transport Modelling for Transport and Land Use Sustainability: lessons and challenges from East Asia and the Middle East
  24. 24. “Compete” between Transit Lines!?Sadly, this can be even worse…• Bangkok Skytrain “versus” Blue Line Subway – Actual resistance to common ticketing – Significant vertical distances• Manila LRT: Metrorail (N-S) & Megatren (E-W) – Connect via a shopping mall!• Kuala Lumpur Sentral Stations & others• System exit; walk (cross-road); new ticket – Yet shown as simple interchange!Do models simplify the hurdles travellers face in theimmediate vicinity of stations? Transport Modelling for Transport and Land Use Sustainability: lessons and challenges from East Asia and the Middle East
  25. 25. Bangkok, Thailand Skytrain: • above ground • no airconBlue Line:• Deep under ground• Cavernous halls: – Assumed to house shops, but don’t East Asia and the Middle East Transport Modelling for Transport and Land Use Sustainability: lessons and challenges from
  26. 26. Kuala Lumpur Sentral Stations 400 metres, not counting in- station distance, one highway crossingTransport Modelling for Transport and Land Use Sustainability: lessons and challenges from East Asia and the Middle East
  27. 27. It Might Look Good on a Map, but…In Amman, buses were “highly accessible”, asmost homes/ offices were near to routes, but:• Buses tended to leave terminals once full• So not possible to board mid-route• Bus route structure was a legacy of how Amman used to be• And as a hilly city, walking usually inconvenient – Philadelphia founded by Romans on 7 hills• Buses seen as “mode of last resort” Transport Modelling for Transport and Land Use Sustainability: lessons and challenges from East Asia and the Middle East
  28. 28. Amman, JordanTransport Modelling for Transport and Land Use Sustainability: lessons and challenges from East Asia and the Middle East
  29. 29. Building a Metro is not EnoughIn Tianjin, a number of new metro lines planned,but bus companies (all under the public Tianjin BusGroup) resistant to change, e.g. route restructuring• Buses slow and inconvenient – another legacy network• Like Amman, piecemeal changes to bus routes: – Tacking on new development areas – Not providing wholly new, direct/ convenient routes• Cycling seen as much quicker and more reliable• Like Amman, buses seen as “social need” rather than a means to persuade drivers out of cars Transport Modelling for Transport and Land Use Sustainability: lessons and challenges from East Asia and the Middle East
  30. 30. Tianjin, ChinaTransport Modelling for Transport and Land Use Sustainability: lessons and challenges from East Asia and the Middle East
  31. 31. Public Transport – A Mode of Last Resort? Traditionally, PT for those without access to a car • Social need and low cost • Poor comfort, poor service • This is not attractive to car users • Low fares may be counter-productive: – If I can afford to drive when the bus fare is 50 cents – I can still afford to drive when it’s 25 cents • And there may be more social stigma attached to low cost buses, especially when poor quality Stigma effects not usually modelled/ modellable! Transport Modelling for Transport and Land Use Sustainability: lessons and challenges from East Asia and the Middle East
  32. 32. Access/ Egress – Oft Forgotten! Are these incorporated into your models?Transport Modelling for Transport and Land Use Sustainability: lessons and challenges from East Asia and the Middle East
  33. 33. Better Pedestrian Networks are Possible Hong Kong’s Elevated Walkway Network And Hong Kong’s Mid-Levels Escalator
  34. 34. Inter-Modal IntegrationFractal approach:• Begin with strategic routes/ demand analysis• Then feeder modes/ routes• Potential congestion issues (transit & traffic)• Then work downwards to “short distance”Interchange is undesirable relative to point-to-point journeys, so minimise inconvenienceRemember viability of interim networks, duringphased development Transport Modelling for Transport and Land Use Sustainability: lessons and challenges from East Asia and the Middle East
  35. 35. SuperblocksIn Bangkok & Dubai, deriving often from land ownershipor development patterns:• No through roads or functional road hierarchyTypically large roads in-between:• Trunk and local roads at the same time• Significant frontage interference• Substantial community severance Transport Modelling for Transport and Land Use Sustainability: lessons and challenges from East Asia and the Middle East
  36. 36. Additional Vehicle MileageEven a short journey becomes long:• Walkers may need to find a taxi to cross road• Drivers may have to drive a long way round Transport Modelling for Transport and Land Use Sustainability: lessons and challenges from East Asia and the Middle East
  37. 37. Assessing Extent of Excess MileageCombine transport modelling and GIS:• Trip matrices for interzonal demand• Compare crow-fly distances (GIS) with skimmed distance and time• If good pedestrian links developed, for short crow-fly trips transfer to walk may be possible• Also consider walk to/from car parking (if not in- building)• Due to lack of pedestrian data capture, spreadsheet-based estimates may need to be imposed onto models Transport Modelling for Transport and Land Use Sustainability: lessons and challenges from East Asia and the Middle East
  38. 38. Urban Form & Development Density• Determines realistic potential patronage and requirements for feeder services• High density, ribbon development is ideal• Concentrates demand onto corridors, either: – Naturally (Hong Kong); or, – Strong advance planning (Singapore, Curitiba)• Then work out a realistic transit system Transport Modelling for Transport and Land Use Sustainability: lessons and challenges from East Asia and the Middle East
  39. 39. High Density Ribbon Development• Hong Kong is naturally suited to high capacity, high frequency rapid transit• But this is augmented by strong pedestrian planning also!
  40. 40. Cost versus CapacitySource: Montassar DRAIEF-SYSTRA; World Bank Transport Modelling for Transport and Land Use Sustainability: lessons and challenges from East Asia and the Middle East
  41. 41. Uncertainty & Forecast PerspectivesTransport demand forecasts in general arebeset with uncertainty, including:• Land use/ planning data• Economic growth• Population growth• Vehicle ownership• Transport policy variables, including tolls and fares• Timing of competing & feeder routes Transport Modelling for Transport and Land Use Sustainability: lessons and challenges from East Asia and the Middle East
  42. 42. Uncertainty & Forecast PerspectivesA spread of probability:• Central Case (for transport planning)• Low Case (for financing) – remember ramp up!• High Case (for station design/ system sizing)Though ideallyuse a range ofqualititativelydifferentscenarios also Transport Modelling for Transport and Land Use Sustainability: lessons and challenges from East Asia and the Middle East
  43. 43. Uncertainty & Forecast Perspectives Central Case Low Case Maximum Likely Demand Model2015 2020 2025 2030 Transport Modelling for Transport and Land Use Sustainability: lessons and challenges from East Asia and the Middle East
  44. 44. Value-Capture Opportunities• Property development (Hong Kong model)• Shops in stations (but don’t congest stations)• Advertising, but perhaps not too much: – Livery adverts can interfere with branding – Obtrusive advertising can be unpopular• Joint ticketing – Hong Kong’s “Octopus” smart card is also used for grocery shopping Transport Modelling for Transport and Land Use Sustainability: lessons and challenges from East Asia and the Middle East
  45. 45. Transport Policy• In the long term anything is possible, but what is feasible?• As, in the short term constraints are the norm: – Political unacceptability of “stick” measures on car usage – Election cycles: can de-rail initiatives – Resistance to reorganisation – Takes time to reform institutions – Land resumption/ compensation/ resettlement• Be skeptical developing base case assumptions Transport Modelling for Transport and Land Use Sustainability: lessons and challenges from East Asia and the Middle East
  46. 46. Transport Policy and Modelling• Heavy infrastructure can be popular with politicians – Photo-op: opening a bridge or train station• Supporting policy measures may be electorally unpopular, especially in advance – E.g. road pricing• Essential to have policy variables in models – Parking charges, tolls, car ownership & fuel costs, etc• Demonstrate increased economic and financial ROI from infrastructure if combined with transport policies Transport Modelling for Transport and Land Use Sustainability: lessons and challenges from East Asia and the Middle East
  47. 47. Thank YouRichard Di BonaDirector, LLA Consultancy Ltd (Hong Kong)and Independent Consultantrfdibona@yahoo.com; richard@lla.com.hk Transport Modelling for Transport and Land Use Sustainability: lessons and challenges from East Asia and the Middle East

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