THE EFFECTS OF CHILD SUPPORT RECEIPT ON WELFARE EXITS AND REENTRIES Donald Hirasuna And Maureen Pirog
Purpose of Investigation <ul><li>Can Child Support Reduce The Time Spent On TANF? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>An Alternative Sou...
Findings Regarding  Child Support & Cash Grant MFIP <ul><li>Child Support Increases The Chances Of Exit, Especially  More ...
Background The Need For A New Study <ul><li>Relatively Few Studies Of The Impacts Of Child Support On Welfare Dynamics Pos...
What Is New In Our Study <ul><li>Examine Child Support Under The TANF Era Monthly Data On MFIP Eligibility  </li></ul><ul>...
Monthly Administrative Data Of Minnesota’s MFIP Program <ul><li>Merge With Monthly Child Support Enforcement </li></ul><ul...
Data <ul><li>There Are 1,964,539 Person-months In The Data Set. Of These 785,380 Reflect Time On Cash Grant Welfare And 1,...
Tradeoffs Between Administrative And Multi-state Data <ul><li>Advantages/Risks To Administrative Data </li></ul><ul><ul><l...
50% of parents receive Child Support for the first time 21 or more months after they enter TANF Figure 1 in Handout
Number Of Parents Receiving Consistent Payments Decrease With Each Month Among The Times That Parents Begin To Receive Chi...
Amounts Of Child Support At The  25 th , 50 th , And 75 th  Percentiles Increase With Consecutive Months Of Receipt 75 th ...
The Percent Of Parents With Child Support Income That Exceeds MFIP Cash Grant  Limits Increases With The Number Of Consecu...
Theoretical Model Page 4 of handout
Hypotheses Lower Higher Earned Income Credits Lower Exemptions And Extension Higher Sanctions Lower Higher Child Support P...
Empirical Models <ul><li>Regression Model </li></ul><ul><li>  </li></ul><ul><ul><li>SeleCtion Bias Corrections For </li></...
Who Receives  Less In Child Support Table 2 in Handout <ul><li>NOn-whites </li></ul><ul><li>Those Without A High School Di...
RESULTS:  EXITS The Impact Of Consecutive Child Support Payments Table 3 in Handout <ul><li>2 nD  And 3 rd  Month Largest ...
Other Child Support Variables <ul><li>Propensity Score Results-2 nd  Month Of Receipt Has Largest Impact On Exits  </li></...
The Impact Of Sanctions &Other TANF Policies Table 3 in Handout 1st Policy Employment Sanction-10% & 30% Child Support San...
The Impact Of Human Capital, Citizenship & Other Variables Table 3 in Handout Hard Skills May Matter 1st Policy Full-time ...
Other Findings <ul><li>AFrican Americans, American Indians And Asian Americans Less Likely To Exit </li></ul><ul><li>Highe...
RESULTS:  REENTRIES Can Child Support Reduce The Probability Of Reentry? <ul><li>FiRst Few Months Are Most Helpful In Redu...
Consecutive Months Of Receipt  Of Child Support Or Childcare And Reentries <ul><li>Largest Deterrent Is In 2 nd  And 3 rd ...
Child Support And Reentries <ul><li>More In Child Support In Recent Months May Contribute To Longer Times Away From Welfar...
The Impact Of TANF Policies On The Probability Of Reentry Table 5 in Handout 1st Subject To The Policy While On TANF Emplo...
The Impact of Human Capital, Citizenship & Other Policy Variables on Reentry Table 5 in Handout 1 st Policy Full-time Stud...
Other Findings <ul><li>African Americans And American Indians More Likely To Reenter </li></ul><ul><li>Employment Growth I...
Conclusions <ul><li>Child Support: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Raise The Odds Of Exit And Lower The Odds Of Reentry </li></ul></...
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Hirasuna Presentation On Child Support And Welfare Spells

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Hirasuna Presentation On Child Support And Welfare Spells

  1. 1. THE EFFECTS OF CHILD SUPPORT RECEIPT ON WELFARE EXITS AND REENTRIES Donald Hirasuna And Maureen Pirog
  2. 2. Purpose of Investigation <ul><li>Can Child Support Reduce The Time Spent On TANF? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>An Alternative Source Of Income </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Help Avoid Time Limit </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>May Contribute To Smaller Caseloads </li></ul></ul>
  3. 3. Findings Regarding Child Support & Cash Grant MFIP <ul><li>Child Support Increases The Chances Of Exit, Especially More Consistent Payments And When Parents May First Be Considered Ineligible </li></ul><ul><li>Child Support In Most Recent Months May Contribute To Lower Chances Of Reentry. However, The Results Are Less Consistent. </li></ul><ul><li>Parents Sanctioned For Failing To Meet Welfare Rules More Likely Exit And More Likely Return Welfare. </li></ul><ul><li>Child Support Sanctions Increase The Probability Of Exit And Reduce The Probability Of Reentry. </li></ul><ul><li>Parents Who Have Exemptions To Work Requirements Less Likely To Exit And Reenter Welfare. </li></ul>
  4. 4. Background The Need For A New Study <ul><li>Relatively Few Studies Of The Impacts Of Child Support On Welfare Dynamics Post-prwora </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Cancian, Meyer And Wallace (2001)—W2; </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Huang, Garfinkel, And Waldfogel (2004)-state Level Data; </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Miller Et Al. (2005)-survey, Small N </li></ul></ul>
  5. 5. What Is New In Our Study <ul><li>Examine Child Support Under The TANF Era Monthly Data On MFIP Eligibility </li></ul><ul><li>Consider When The Dept. Of Human Services Counts Child Support Income For Eligibility </li></ul><ul><li>Examine TANF Policies </li></ul>
  6. 6. Monthly Administrative Data Of Minnesota’s MFIP Program <ul><li>Merge With Monthly Child Support Enforcement </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Cash Grant MFIP–1992-2003; CSE–1997-2003, And </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Single Parents Only </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>3 Part Child Support Order </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Use 1998-2003 Data To Help Isolate First Spells </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Beginning Of MFIP Program </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Use 1997 CSE Data Identify Lagged Effects To Child Support </li></ul><ul><li>Use Cash Grant MFIP </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Includes Time Limits, Sanctions And Work Requirements </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Excludes Parents Who May Have Been On Food Stamps Before Who Enter MFIP On Food Stamp Portion Only </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Include Demographic, Policy And Labor Market Variables </li></ul>
  7. 7. Data <ul><li>There Are 1,964,539 Person-months In The Data Set. Of These 785,380 Reflect Time On Cash Grant Welfare And 1,179,159 Reflect Time Off Welfare. </li></ul><ul><li>These Data Describe A Total Of 57,913 Independent Cases. </li></ul><ul><li>Lagged Values Of Child Support Receipt, Sanctions, Exemptions, Etc. Are Computed For Each Person-month. The Person-month Data Can Be Aggregated To 99,803 Spells On Welfare And 50,284 Spells Off Welfare. </li></ul>
  8. 8. Tradeoffs Between Administrative And Multi-state Data <ul><li>Advantages/Risks To Administrative Data </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Substantially More Degrees Of Freedom </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Monthly Child Support Income And Policy Variables </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>One Source Of Exogeneity: Can Account For When Human Services Agency Deems Someone Ineligible </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Potential Selection Bias At Individual Level </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Advantages/Risks To Multi-state Data </li></ul><ul><ul><li>State-by-state Variation In Child Support Policy </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Many Different Non-child Support Policies That Will Also Require Many Different Controls </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>States With More Generous Child Support Policies May Have A Variety Of More Generous Policies For Low-income Families </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Individual Level Selection Bias </li></ul></ul>
  9. 9. 50% of parents receive Child Support for the first time 21 or more months after they enter TANF Figure 1 in Handout
  10. 10. Number Of Parents Receiving Consistent Payments Decrease With Each Month Among The Times That Parents Begin To Receive Child 21% Receive It For At Least 11 Months In A Row Table 1 in Handout
  11. 11. Amounts Of Child Support At The 25 th , 50 th , And 75 th Percentiles Increase With Consecutive Months Of Receipt 75 th Percentile 50 th Percentile 25 th Percentile Table 1 in Handout
  12. 12. The Percent Of Parents With Child Support Income That Exceeds MFIP Cash Grant Limits Increases With The Number Of Consecutive Payments Table 1 in Handout
  13. 13. Theoretical Model Page 4 of handout
  14. 14. Hypotheses Lower Higher Earned Income Credits Lower Exemptions And Extension Higher Sanctions Lower Higher Child Support Prob. Reentry Prob. Exit Policy Variable
  15. 15. Empirical Models <ul><li>Regression Model </li></ul><ul><li> </li></ul><ul><ul><li>SeleCtion Bias Corrections For </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>More Expected In Child Support And Child Care </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>More Likely Sanctioned </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>More Likely Exempt From Work Requirements </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Use Instrumental Variables, Because 5 Structural Equations </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Propensity Score Matching Model </li></ul><ul><ul><li>MAy Be Effectively A Hazard Function If Assume Mean Independence Between Baseline Hazard And Propensity Score: Also Must Assume Any Time Varying Covariates For Hazard Function Are Exogenous In Each Period T. </li></ul></ul>
  16. 16. Who Receives Less In Child Support Table 2 in Handout <ul><li>NOn-whites </li></ul><ul><li>Those Without A High School Diploma </li></ul><ul><li>Low Employment To Population Ratios </li></ul>
  17. 17. RESULTS: EXITS The Impact Of Consecutive Child Support Payments Table 3 in Handout <ul><li>2 nD And 3 rd Month Largest Effect </li></ul><ul><li>2 nd Month Statistically Significantly Different From 1st Month (All But 3 rd ) </li></ul><ul><li>2 nd Month When First Deemed Ineligible By The DHS </li></ul>
  18. 18. Other Child Support Variables <ul><li>Propensity Score Results-2 nd Month Of Receipt Has Largest Impact On Exits </li></ul><ul><li>Larger Amounts Of Child Support And Child Care Makes A Difference In More Recent Months </li></ul><ul><li>A Higher Percent Of Months Of Child Support And Child Care Income Received In The Last Six Months Raises Exit Probabilities </li></ul><ul><li>May Suggest That Consistent Payments Raise Exit Probabilities </li></ul>Tables 3 and 4 in Handout
  19. 19. The Impact Of Sanctions &Other TANF Policies Table 3 in Handout 1st Policy Employment Sanction-10% & 30% Child Support Sanction-25% & 30% Exemptions To 60-month Time Limit ? Extension To 60-month Time Limit Age 60 Or Older Personal Or Family Health Problem Child Between 0 & 1
  20. 20. The Impact Of Human Capital, Citizenship & Other Variables Table 3 in Handout Hard Skills May Matter 1st Policy Full-time Student High School Diploma Or GED Noncitizen Needs An Interpreter Earned Income Credit
  21. 21. Other Findings <ul><li>AFrican Americans, American Indians And Asian Americans Less Likely To Exit </li></ul><ul><li>Higher Employment Rates May Raise Exits </li></ul>Table 3 in Handout
  22. 22. RESULTS: REENTRIES Can Child Support Reduce The Probability Of Reentry? <ul><li>FiRst Few Months Are Most Helpful In Reducing The Probability Of Reentry </li></ul><ul><li>More Consistent Payments In Terms Of Percent Of Last 6-months That Received Payment Reduces The Probability Of Reentry Onto 2nd Episode </li></ul><ul><li>Propensity Score Results->significant In First Month </li></ul>Tables 4 & 5 in Handout
  23. 23. Consecutive Months Of Receipt Of Child Support Or Childcare And Reentries <ul><li>Largest Deterrent Is In 2 nd And 3 rd Months </li></ul><ul><li>May Suggest That Consistent Payments Lower Reentry Probabilities </li></ul>Table 5 in Handout
  24. 24. Child Support And Reentries <ul><li>More In Child Support In Recent Months May Contribute To Longer Times Away From Welfare </li></ul><ul><li>Higher Percentage Of Payments Within Last 6-months Associated With Longer Spells Away From Welfare </li></ul><ul><li>Medical Support Associated With Longer Spells Away From Welfare </li></ul>Table 5 in Handout
  25. 25. The Impact Of TANF Policies On The Probability Of Reentry Table 5 in Handout 1st Subject To The Policy While On TANF Employment Sanction-10% & 30% Child Support Sanction-25% & 30% Extension To 60-month Time Limit Exempt From Work Requirements ? Age 60 Or Older Personal Or Family Health Problem Child Between 0 & 1
  26. 26. The Impact of Human Capital, Citizenship & Other Policy Variables on Reentry Table 5 in Handout 1 st Policy Full-time Student While On TANF High School Diploma Or GED While On TANF Noncitizen While On TANF Needs An Interpreter While On TANF Earned Income Credit
  27. 27. Other Findings <ul><li>African Americans And American Indians More Likely To Reenter </li></ul><ul><li>Employment Growth In The Last Few Months Can Lower The Probability Of Reentry </li></ul><ul><li>Some Evidence That Language Networks For Whites May Deter Reentry </li></ul>Table 5 in Handout
  28. 28. Conclusions <ul><li>Child Support: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Raise The Odds Of Exit And Lower The Odds Of Reentry </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Takes Several Months To Receive </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Is Inconsistently Received </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Will Less Likely Help Those With Significant Work Barriers </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Sanctions Raise The Probability Of Exit, But Only Child Support Sanctions Correlate With A Lower Probability Of Return </li></ul><ul><li>Persons With Work Or Time Limit Exceptions Less Likely Exit </li></ul>

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