Stabilizing India’s population
“easier said than done”
Population Stabilization Fortnight
05 Feb to 19 Feb 2014
• Birth of a child is most beautiful creation of
• Thereby, the population growth is purely a
• Human beings evolved under conditions of high
mortality due to
famines, accidents, illnesses, infections and war
and therefore the relatively high fertility rates
were essential for species survival.
• In spite of the relatively high fertility rates it took
all the time, from evolution of mankind to the
middle of the 19th century, for the global
population to reach one billion.
• The twentieth century witnessed a rapid improvement
in health care technologies and services all over the
• as a result there was a steep fall in the mortality and
steep increase in longevity.
• The global population has undergone a
fourfold increase in a hundred years and has
crossed 6 billion in 2011.
• With total population exceeding one billion
mark, India is the second most populous
country in the world.
• This is despite the more than sixty years of
family planning efforts since 1952.
• In the 2011 census, India’s population totalled
just over 1.21 billion people.
• According to United Nations projections, the
figure could reach 1.6 billion by 2050.
• India is thus expected to overtake China by
200 million people by year 2050.
• The Indian government is concerned to control
population growth, many years back and
• a population policy was introduced for this
• However, population stabilization is still a
long way off in India,
• unlike in China, where the population is
expected to level off by 2030.
• Although population growth has slowed
• But, India has accumulated such potential for
growth (Demographic Inertia) that the target of
population stabilization has had to be regularly
• The National Population Policy 2000 forecast
stabilization by 2045.
• In this long span of population
stabilization, numerous policy measures have
• There is now universal awareness of the need
for the methods of family planning.
Population stabilization week
• We are celebrating the Population Stabilization
week from 5th Feb 2014 to 19 Feb 2014 with
- To spread awareness among people about
family planning programmes.
- To give impetus to the family planning
services running in the country.
• The world experienced dramatic population growth
during the 20th century.
• The number of inhabitants doubling from 3 to 6
billion (2% per annum) between 1960 and 2000.
India in World’s Population
• Total population of India is 1.21 billion in 2011.
• Males (51.5%), Female (48.4%)
• India occupies 2nd rank among the world's most populated
• India shares 17.5% of world population.
• Population of India + China > 1/3 rd of World’s population.
India in World’s Population
Population of India: 1901-2011
• India, has very rapid population growth from 238.4
million in 1901 to 1.21 billion in 2011.
Year of ‘Big divide’ - 1921
Growth Rate of India
•Growth Rate •Decadal Growth Rate
• India has a annual growth rate of 1.4% per year.
• Decadal growth rate of 17.64% (2001 - 2011).
• Male: (17.19%), Female: (18.12%).
Growth Rate: India vs World
• Growth rate of India is still higher than the World’s
average growth rate.
• Very high compare to growth rate of China.
Population share of States: India 2011
• Uttar Pradesh is most populous state in country.
• Shares 16% population of India.
• Followed by Maharashtra (9%) and Bihar (9%).
Top five & bottom five states/UT in India
(by population size)
Population Density in India
• Average density of population in India is 382 per sq. km.
• Highest density of population in Bihar & West Bengal.
Population of Chhattisgarh
• Population of Chhattisgarh is 2,55,40,196. (2.55 million)
• Shares 2.11% of population of India. (2.03% in 2001).
• Rank - 16th among the most populated states in India.
• (Ranked 17th in 2001).
• Over the six decades, there has been rapid fall in Crude Death
Rate (CDR) from 25.1 in 1951 to 7.2 in 2011.
• But, less steep decline in the Crude Birth Rate (CBR) from
40.8 in 1951 to 22.1 in 2011.
• The annual exponential growth rate has been over 2%
in the period 1961-1990.
• During the nineties the decline in CBR has
been steeper than that in the (CDR) and
consequently, the annual population growth
rate has fallen below 2%.
• The rate of decline in population growth is
likely to be further accelerated during the next
• The changes in the population growth rates
have been relatively slow, steady and
• As a result the country was able to achieve a
relatively gradual change in the population
numbers and age structure
• 1950- India had large number of young
population, with many children and few
• Moving forward in time, the number of
working-age persons increased, relative to
children and the elderly.
• 65 years and over: 5.5 %
• 15 years to 64 years: 64.9 %
• 0 years to 14 years: 29.7 %
• The age structure of a population can have a
large effect on economic growth.
• Changes in mortality, creates changes in the
age structure of India’s population.
• India’s demographic profile has begun to
evolve in a way that is potentially more
favourable to economic growth.
• China’s population growth is only 0.7% per
• (India with 1.6 billion, will surpass China with
respect to population size in 2050)
• China’s campaign of “later, longer, fewer” and
its one-child policy (beginning in 1979) led to
a decline in fertility.
• India had 66% higher income per capita than
China in 1980,
• but by the early 1990s China overtook India.
• In 2008, the situation was reversed, with per
capita income in China double that of India.
• Rapid rise in the ratio of China’s working-age to non-working-
age population also contributed to its extremely fast economic
growth since 1980.
• The corresponding population ratio in India has grown more
• In 1951, a few years after independence, the
Indian government introduced its first five-
year plan, which already referred to a
• “Rapid population growth” was considered an
obstacle to the country’s development.
• At the time, India had a population of 361
million and annual population growth of
1.25% (between 1941 and 1951).
• The Government of India introduced a family
planning programme to make cheap and
effective contraception, available to all
categories of the population.
• Emphasis was also placed on raising the
marriage age of girls in a bid to reduce fertility.
(the average age of girls at marriage was 15.6 at the time)
• Sterilization was promoted, and abortion was
legalized for women in the early 1970s.
• The policy of providing contraceptives soon
• Opening family planning clinics was not
sufficient to bring down fertility.
• By the mid-1970s, family planning had clearly
• The population was growing at a rate of 2.2%
• (at that rate, a population will double in 32 years).
• In 1975, the prime minister, Indira Gandhi,
instigated emergency rule in India and,
• in 1976, a “national population policy” was
introduced and made a national priority.
• Although the average number of children born
to each woman had started to fall, the
population was still increasing at the same
• Compulsory sterilization for mothers of three
or more children was considered.
• The zeal of some states, resulted in 8.3 million
sterilizations in 1976- 1977, compared with a
forecast of only 4.3 million.
• The Congress Party’s electoral defeat in
1977 was, due to the unpopularity of
• It appeared to signal the end of an active
• The “family planning” programme became a
“family welfare” programme, and
• reversible methods of contraception were
• Returned to power in 1980, having learned the
lessons of her electoral demise,
• Indira Gandhi asserted that, in order to achieve
the target of family limitation,
“persuasion” was preferable to “coercion”.
• She declared-“Family planning must come
from the people, by the people and for the
• Between 1970 and 2000, the percentage of
couples of childbearing age practising birth
control measures rose fivefold, from 10% to
• Strikingly, although the use of oral
contraceptives and intrauterine devices is
• three-quarters of couples opt for sterilization.
• The number of sterilizations increased sharply
from the start of the 1980s, then stabilized at
between 4 million and 5 million per year.
• Over the same period, sterilization has become
female-only method. (98% in the late 1990s).
• Despite a decline in fertility rate of India from the 1960s
• but it was less steep than the China.
Fertility trends in India and China since 1950 and projections to 2050
India’s population was multiplied by
2.8 between year1951 and 2001.
• In 2000, India introduced a new population
policy, with new targets of replacement-level
fertility by 2010 and population stabilization
• But those targets, like the previous ones, are
thwarted by demographic inertia.
THE BIRTH RATE IS FALLING
MORE SLOWLY THAN EXPECTED
• It would be wrong to claim that India’s
population policy has failed completely.
• because population growth has accelerated in
spite of family planning programmes.
• Demographic inertia must be taken into
• The birth rate did fall in the 1970s and
1980s, but since the death rate also fell, the
growth rate did not come down.
• The target of rapid population stabilization is
hampered by India’s young population.
• Even though fertility is falling, the number of
people of childbearing age is increasing, so the
number of births remain high.
National Population Policy 2000:
• Aware of demographic inertia, the Indian government
set different kinds of targets with different horizons in
the National Population Policy 2000: -
• an immediate target of meeting needs for
contraception, healthcare infrastructure, staff and
services to improve reproductive health;
• a medium-term target of fertility at the replacement
level (2010); and
• a long-term target of population stabilization (2045).
• India’s population will inevitably continue to
grow for at least 50 years, increasing by a half
over the period.
• The country must also struggle with persistent
poverty, widespread unemployment, and severe
• Improving life for the whole population –
not just the urban middle class – and
• providing decent living conditions for an
additional 500 million people by 2050 is
the formidable sustainable development
challenge for the India.