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Focus csdm&cess wp6.2_context_scenarios_and_roles


Focus mid term symposium

Focus mid term symposium

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  • 1. EU Roles as a Global Security Actor in the Future EU Roles as a Global Security Actor in the Future Foresight Security Scenarios Todor Tagarev, Valeri13/03/2012 Ratchev, Uwe Nerlich
  • 2. Work in progress  This presentation reflects FOCUS research work in progress  Do not refer to examples of scenarios and/or roles made in this presentation!2 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
  • 3. Outline  WP6.2 tasks for CSDM & CESS  Exploratory process  Preliminary findings3 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
  • 4. WP6.2 tasks for CSDM & CESS 1. “Scenarios from politics”: Provide an explanation why the EU has come up with defining the ‘Petersberg tasks’ up to the Lisbon Treaty 2. “Projection”: Extrapolate current trends, drivers, … and lessons learned (till 2020-2025) 3. Exploratory foresight: Explore the space of context scenarios up to 2035 and respective future roles of the EU as a global security actor  This presentation addresses the third task4 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
  • 5. 5 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
  • 6. Research Process (WP6) Scoping the problem space Context А1 scenarios and roles А2 Security rese - arch scenarios А36 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
  • 7. Research Process (WP6.2) Develop context scenarios Identify alterna - А2.1 tive future roles Develop illustra - А2.2 tive mission sce - narios А2.37 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
  • 8. Develop Context Scenarios (A2.1) Identify relevant factors Identify and describe distinct states Assess probabilities of distinct states Assess compatibility of states Identify plausible combinations of factors Select representative combinations Write the texts of the scenarios8 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
  • 9. Relevant factors A. Global context B. Globalisation and economic growth C. Security environment D. Societal Demographics & Migration E. EU Modalities9 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
  • 10. Global context A1. Dominant global competitions A2. Multiple mutual dependencies A3. Disruptive potentials A4. Regional dynamics A5. Flattening world10 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
  • 11. Globalisation and economic growth B1. Accelerated globalisation and growth B2. Cyclic globalisation and growth B3. Retarded globalisation and growth11 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
  • 12. Security environment C1. Global collective security architecture C2. Cooperative security C3. Fragmented security12 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
  • 13. Societal Demographics & Migration D1. Balanced demographics and limited migration D2. Expanding demographic gaps and controlled migration D3. Migration tsunami13 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
  • 14. EU Modalities E1. Europe as a multiple identity E2. Institutional Europe (EU Lisbon Treaty+;) E3. Differentiations (Europe at ‘two+ speeds’, selective cooperation, …) E4. Disintegration E5. Marginalisation14 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
  • 15. 15 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
  • 16. 16 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
  • 17. Complexity  6-7 factors  Number of states: – Distinct – Mutually exclusive  Exhaustive  Number of combinations: NA*NB*NC*ND*…17 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
  • 18. Practical considerations  Level of complexity suitable for participatory foresight  Ns = NA + NB + NC + ND + …  Number of pairs ~ Ns2  Here – 5 factors, 19 states18 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
  • 19. Context scenarios  0 – “most probable”  2-3 alternative scenarios  Plausible  Span [the more demanding part of] the problem space19 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
  • 20. Definition of roles  Dimensions  Possible values along the dimensions  Plausible combinations of values  Selection of distinct combinations, spanning [potentially] the space of security research requirements  Plausible explanation for the emergence of a particular role in certain context20 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
  • 21. 21 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
  • 22. Potential EU roles  “Guarantor of energy supply” a3b4c1d7e2 (add aspects of the comprehensive approach)  “Cyber role”  “Role in /protecting assets in/ outer space”  “Protect SLOC”  …22 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
  • 23. In conclusion  Tension between elaborating a framework for dedicated research and one for soliciting the opinion of outside experts and potential end users  Need for a decision making chain that could be tracked23 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
  • 24. FOCUS is co-funded by the European Commission under the 7th Framework Programme, theme "security", call FP7-SEC-2010-1, work programme topic 6.3-2 "Fore sighting the contribution of security research to meet the future EU roles".24 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios