Duk goellner seboeck-focus-midterm symposion_march 2012

Alternative futures of security research in support of a comprehensive approach FOCUS Mid-Term Symposium Foresight Security Scenarios Dr. Walter SEBÖCKTuesday 13 March 2012 DI Johannes GÖLLNER, MSc

Objective  FOCUS-Deliverable D3.3: – will select scenarios from FOCUS-Deliverable D3.2 and explore alternative futures of security research to support EU roles in the context of selected scenarios of the comprehensive approach as developed in FOCUS- Deliverable D3.2; – will in particular identify ideal contributions from multidisciplinary security research to meet requirements of a comprehensive approach; – Will assess the appropriateness of these contributions against the background of scenarios for EU-specific roles in the context of future variants of the comprehensive2 approach. FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios

Selected 4 thematic embedded scenarios  Scenario I: “Policy strategies consensus scenario”  Scenario II: “Policy strategies leftovers scenario”  Scenario III: “Multinationalism scenario”  Scenario IV: “Materialism scenario”3 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios

Selected 4 thematic embedded scenarios Scenario I: “Policy strategies consensus scenario” Questions about this scenario: Which measures must be taken, to prevent an overruling of individual states by the development of common rules for hazard- driven policy? Which security-related research topics should be designed in order to expand and broadening the concept of an European security research?4 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios

Selected 4 thematic embedded scenarios Scenario II: “Policy strategies leftovers scenario” Questions about this scenario: Which measures must be taken in order to review and integrate interdisciplinary expertise in European security policy more closely? Which security-related research topics should be designed in order to expand and broadening the concept of an European security research?5 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios

Selected 4 thematic embedded scenarios Scenario III: “Multinationalism scenario” Questions about this scenario: Do you think, that internal or external nationalism may pose a security threat to the EU and why? Under which framework it is possible to act against nationalistic threats? Which EU members are able to play an important role and which values do represent the EU in its entirety? Please name a programme in which the EU represents common values in order to act against external threatening nationalisms. Which security-related research topics should be designed in order to expand and broadening the concept of an European security research?6 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios

Selected 4 thematic embedded scenarios Scenario IV: “Materialism scenario” Questions about this scenario: Do you believe that an enhanced cooperation and harmonization could reduce or optimize resources in partner countries? Which kind of harmonization and cooperation would you prefer or define as useful? Which security-related research topics should be designed in order to expand and broadening the concept of an European security research?7 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios

Objective  Following future security research themes will be further explored for approx. four selected thematic embedded scenarios: – EU cohesion, decision-making and, more generally, governance – Regional/international/global distribution of wealth; – Climate change; – Crises resulting from scarcity of resources; – Dependency on supply chains and reliability on the stability of re-source sources (stability of providing countries);8 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios

Objective – Dependency on information and communication technology, and technology in general (address cascading breakdown of systems); – Willingness to invest in preparedness; – New methodologies for collecting and integrating data from various different sources; – Intelligent, knowledge-based focusing and filtering functions for new social media and other open information source monitoring; – Integrated situational pictures as facilitation for networked operation command structures;9 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios

Objective – Information exchange among civilian and military actors in order to provide common, timely and relevant situational awareness; – Decision-making tools based on joined-up situation analyses, in-cluding their use to secure public acceptance and support; – Standardized skills development and integrated information sys-tems for a effective coordination of resources as well as to coop-eration between EU Member States; – Training schemes for technology use, including new social net-work technologies;10 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios

Objective – Advancement and integration of approaches to foresight, with special consideration of the following:  User-driven shifts;  User experience as a dominant influence in the technology trend;  Identification and analysis of disruptors from normative (desired) end-states.11 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios

in relation to a theoreticalSecurity[zation]-Framework Political security Economic Societal security security Comprehensive Approach Environmental security Military security …and so on...Source: Buzan, Weaver, Wilde;A New Framework for Analysis, 2002 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios

Sources  Focus Deliverable-D3.2  Buzan, Weaver, Wilde: A New Framework for Analysis, 200213 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios

http://www.focusproject.eu FOCUS is co-funded by the European Commission under the 7th Framework Programme, theme "security", call FP7-SEC-2010-1, work programme topic 6.3-2 "Fore sighting the contribution of security research to meet the future EU roles“, Grant Agreement no. 261633.14 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios

Duk goellner seboeck-focus-midterm symposion_march 2012

by Danube University Krems, Centre for E-Governance

Accessibility

Categories

Upload Details

Usage Rights

Statistics

Duk goellner seboeck-focus-midterm symposion_march 2012 Presentation Transcript