Cbra focus-mid-term symposium-13-03-2012 juha ahokas


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Cbra focus-mid-term symposium-13-03-2012 juha ahokas

  1. 1. Future scenarios for complex systems - critical infrastructure and supply chain protection FOCUS Mid-Term Symposium Hotel Sacher Vienna/Austria Foresight Security Scenarios13 March 2012 Ph.D. Candidate Juha Ahokas
  2. 2. Presentation agenda  what is complexity and how complex are critical infrastructures and supply chains?  what are inter-dependencies - an intrinsic characteristic of complex systems and networks?  resilience in complex networks and systems  conceptualizing future scenarios for complex networks and systems2 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
  3. 3. Complexity (Ilachinski 2004, 2006)  Diversity among the components – heterogeneous parts or “agents” – often simple  Open systems and dynamic non-linear interactions - widespread information flow and feedback loops  Local information processing – local interaction among autonomous agents  Open and responsive to changes in to the larger environment or context  Sensitiveness to changes in initial conditions – small changes can create major effects  Best understood by observing the behaviour – activities, processes, adaptation of the whole system over time3 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
  4. 4. Example: complex systems in practice Story: Tea-time Britain Power surges called the TV pickup are unique to Britain. The engineers at the National Grid control centre brace themselves each time Eastenders ends and 1.75 million kettles get switched on. http://www.bbc.co.uk/britainfromabove/stories/people4 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
  5. 5. Sudden collapse of internet: impact analysis (7 shocks and Finland, 2012)5 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
  6. 6. Complex networks can look a like but differ in relation to their resiliencies (Newman, 2008)6 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
  7. 7. Threat types and modes play a role: random removal of nodes7 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
  8. 8. Threat types and modes play a role: intended removal of nodes8 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
  9. 9. Foresight framework also a complex system (adapted from Kanninen, 2007) + + EU and International system changes - - + - + + Technological + + Economic and and Changes in social changes environmental values and - - - norms - changes9 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
  10. 10. Questions  Is it realistic to think that Europe would not experience a major break-down in critical infrastructure in 2035 time horizon?  Which possible changes, drivers and trends reduce resilience of critical infrastructure (e.g. energy or food supply and distribution) in Europe in 2035 time horizon? – Globalization and international system change – Economic and social or changes – Changes in values and norms – Technological change – Changing modes of governance10 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
  11. 11. http://www.focusproject.eu FOCUS is co-funded by the European Commission under the 7th Framework Programme, theme "security", call FP7-SEC-2010-1, work programme topic 6.3-2 "Fore sighting the contribution of security research to meet the future EU roles“, Grant Agreement no. 261633.11 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios