water security presentation jun 2011


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  • But don’t underestimate the importance of population.Population is the main factor which has moved most African countries towards being water stressed if not actually water scarce
  • And we can do quite a lot with not very muchI will first show you a table from Southern Africa so as not to tread on the toes of the Nile family.This table shows how much water countries have, per personThen what % of that water they actually abstract and useThe reason for showing this is to show that SA, a country with a relatively well developed economy and very little water per person, almost water scarce, uses 30% of water to sustain a large economy ... That’s a far bigger % than most of the other countries,
  • water security presentation jun 2011

    1. 1. Prof Mike Muller Graduate School of Public and Development Management Wits UniversityPresentation given at IHP-HELP Centre for Water Law, Policy and Science, under the auspices of UNESCO, 21 st June 2011
    2. 2. What is meant by water security? Household?  Reliable services  Health Community?  Resilience to disasters  Vulnerability of economy National?  survival of the state and nation? Environmental?  Ecological survival, from local to planet
    3. 3. Framing the issueA definition of water security ‘the reliable availability of an acceptable quantity and quality of water for health, livelihoods and production, coupled with an acceptable level of water-related risks.’ Grey and Sadoff (2007). Not the same as ‘food security’ and ‘energy security’,  reliable access to sufficient supplies. water security also captures destructive aspects of water  floods and droughts
    4. 4. Water management is a complex business Flood line – Water for agriculture development Water for nature conservation – – commercial cane constraint National parkOfftake for sugar mill and village Weir, interferes with Onward flow to poor(return channel, warm treated environmental function people & neighborswater, just downstream)
    5. 5. The regional water challenges Southern African countries already water stressed Likely to get worse, with climate and population Conflict inevitable Aggravating the challenges:-  External land and water grabbing ,  Biofuels promotion  Loss of ecosystem services making people poorer Corruption will exacerbate situation
    6. 6. It’s already happening Conflict has happened:-  invasion of Lesotho by South Africa  Botswana and Namibia sabre-rattling over Okavango Dams and displaced people are a major problem China in Angola and Zambia  Colonising land and water as well as minerals Corruption has undermined cooperation  Lesotho and elsewhere
    7. 7. Part of the problem ?
    8. 8. Is population pressure on water an issue?Water stressed 2025 Water stressed 1990
    9. 9. Is drought, variability a problem?Droughts risk and vulnerability(economic loss, as a proportion of GDP density)UNEP/GRID-Arendal, Droughts - risk and vulnerability (economic loss, as a proportion of GDP density), UNEP/GRID-Arendal Maps and Graphics Library,
    10. 10. Who has the water?And is availabilitya problem?
    11. 11. Who has the water?Country Country ????AngolaBotswana Least waterLesothoMalawiMozambiqueNamibiaSouth AfricaSwazilandZambia Most waterZimbabwe
    12. 12. Who has the water? WaterCountry AvailabilityAngola 10510 South Africa 1110 Least waterBotswana 6820 Malawi 1400Lesotho 1680 Zimbabwe 1550Malawi 1400 Lesotho 1680Mozambique 11320 Swaziland 4160 Botswana 6820Namibia 8810 Namibia 8810South Africa 1110 Zambia 9630Swaziland 4160 Angola 10510Zambia 9630 Most water Mozambique 11320Zimbabwe 1550 M3/p/yr Source: UN WWDR 2006
    13. 13. COUNTRY Water m3/p/yr Gaza strip 41 Singapore 139Who has Rwanda Egypt 610 790 Kenya 930the water? South Africa 1110 Denmark 1120 Korea, s 1450 Eritrea 1470 Ethiopia 1680 China 2140 Burundi 2190 United Kingdom 2460 Uganda 2470 Swaziland 4160 Botswana 6820 Namibia 8810 Zambia 9630 Mozambique 11320 DRC 23850
    14. 14. Who uses their water? Country AVAILABILITY M3 P/C USE % Angola 10510 0.2 Botswana 6820 1 Lesotho 1680 2 Malawi 1400 6 Mozambique 11320 0.3 Namibia 8810 2 South Africa 1110 31 Swaziland 4160 18 Zambia 9630 2 Zimbabwe 1584 13 DRC 23850 0.03
    15. 15. Or is money the problem?
    16. 16. The Southern African challenge Low-equilibrium traps and poverty Many of the traps are externally set  Hydropower and infrastructure blocks  Environmental conventions  External dependence  Conflict provoked
    17. 17. “PRAGMATIC” “PRESCRIPTIVE”DIMENSION RIO DUBLIN Competing waterEconomic managementNature of water Economic and social good Economic good paradigms:Priority of economic instruments Economic instruments balanced High priority for economicPriority setting by social considerations instrumentsRole of private sector Within national economic Stakeholder participation, The differences development policy economic instruments between Rio and Major role for government, High priority for role of private recognition of private role sector, limited government DublinCharacterised as:- Developmental Washington ConsensusInstitutional, nationalInstitutional objectives Importance of national Focus on “enabling environment” Water’s Washington ConsensusParticipatory approaches development strategiesGovernance Where there is clear demand Heavy emphasis on participatory Appropriate institutions approaches Performance based institutionsCharacterised as:- Public administration New Public ManagementInstitutional, international:Transboundary approaches Basin specific approaches River basin organisations EX:Institutionalisation of global United Nations system World Water Council outsidewater inter-governmental domain Muller M, Fit forCharacterised as:- Multilateralism continued Retreat from multilateralism purpose: taking integrated waterEnvironmental resource managementInfrastructure Infrastructure development, a “Development” deleted back to basicsDecision making key element Emphasis on “full stakeholderRiver basin organisation (RBO) Effective implementation and participation” Irrigation and Drainage coordination required RBO the most appropriate entity Systems: Volume 24, Manage “in basin context” Issue 3 (2010), Page 161.Characterised as:- Balance needs of people and Ecosystem approach environment
    18. 18. Water’s Washington Consensus
    19. 19. So what are the real securitychallenges? Failure to develop the resource  Mozambique, Zambia, Angola  (Okavango, Zambesi)  Hydropower, agriculture, Variability and uncertainty  Hydrological variability (floods and droughts)  Developmental uncertainty (Angola & Zambia worries) Failure to develop the society  Domestic water security  Poverty
    20. 20. World potential and currenthydropower production, 2004
    21. 21. How water resource development & management supports economiesFlow Management and Infrastructure interventions Maximum flood flow Maximum flood flow Reliable Flow Reliable Flow Time
    22. 22. Reliablesupplies =More investment andgreater productivity
    23. 23. SA, a potential regional predator?  Must South Africa look to its neighbours to meet future water needs?  What are the regional cooperation and security implications?
    24. 24. Evolution of SA economy’s water supply “footprint” Next, the Zambezi?! 1890s local springs 1982 Tugela-Vaal 1902 Rand Water - Zuurbekom pumped transfer/storage 1923 Vaal Barrage 1938 Vaal Dam 1998 Lesotho Highlands Phase 1a 2004 Lesotho Highlands Phase 1b 2020 Lesotho Highlands Phase 2
    25. 25. Vaal River system – Zambesi next? Vaal River Augmentation Options 25 Desalination of seawater (13.2) Zambezi-Vaal transfer (4.2) 20 (4.4)Marginal Cost - URV (R/m3) Mzimvubu-Vaal transfer 15 Thukela-Vaal transfer (Phased Mielietuin 10 (3.4) & Jana Dams) Use of acid mine drainage (2.4) Orange-Vaal transfer (2.5) (0.0) (Boskraai Dam with phased pipelines) 5 LHWP Phase II (Polihali Dam) Legend (0.85) - Unit energy requirement kWh/m3 of raw water 0 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 3 Volume (million m /a)
    26. 26. Evolution of system’s water “footprint” - waste Next, the Zambezi?! 2010 Waste to Lephalale & Limpopo 1890s local springs 1982 Tugela-Vaal1902 Rand Water - Zuurbekom pumped 1970s Waste transfer/storage 1923 Vaal Barrage from Gauteng to Crocodile 1938 Vaal Dam 1998 Lesotho Highlands Phase 1a 2004 Lesotho Highlands Phase 1b 2020 Lesotho Highlands Phase 2
    27. 27. Is SA a potential predator?  Costs  Lesotho Ph2 R6/kl  Wastewater to Lephalale R8/kl (mainly transport)  Zambesi water R23/kl?  Desalination at coast R4/kl and falling  Water for the economy  Singapore 150kl/person/year  South Africa 1200 kl/person/year
    28. 28. Some real issues 20 years, since Rio, countries been denied access to infrastructure funding (Water’s Washington Consensus) Constrained by internationally imposed environmental conventions (e.g. RAMSAR) Denied pathways that rich countries used Ignored evidence that environment can be rehabilitated  Kuznets curve  Rhine, Danube, US Great Lakes  Hydropower
    29. 29. Benefits of cooperation LESOTHO: sale of gravity and rental of land (not water)  15% of government budget , SWAZILAND: cooperation treaty  aid for agriculture prize (LUSIP) (alternatives to sugar ?) MOZAMBIQUE: Cabora Bassa  Funded electrification of country ZIMBABWE, ZAMBIA:  still getting power from Kariba
    30. 30. Infrastructure project impacts …. Katse Dam, Lesotho TCTA Trip to Katse and Mohale Feb/Mar 2003 30
    31. 31. …. can be mitigated : Mohale resettlement TCTA Trip to Katse and Mohale Feb/Mar 2003 31
    32. 32. Cooperation in water in 2002… 2002: The WSSD WaterDome, birthplace of historical Incomaputo agreement“Swaziland, Mozambique, and South Africa made water history for the Africancontinent when they signed a water-sharing agreement governing the use oftwo of their shared rivers. The Interim IncoMaputo Agreement, which involvesthe Incomati and Maputo rivers, provides significant benefits to all threenations. The agreement immediately unlocked financial support for a majornew irrigation development in Swaziland, the Lower Usuthu SmallholderIrrigation Project, which will create direct employment for 10,000 peoplethrough the development of over 11,000 hectares, providing much needed
    33. 33. … produces food and livelihoods LUSIP, Swaziland, in 2010
    34. 34. About water wars...“The wars of the next century will be for water”,“unless we change the way we manage water”. Ismael Serageldin, 1996 Former VP Sustainable Development, World Bank Founder of the World Water Council Head of the Alexandria Library
    35. 35. Napoleon’s African watermanagement lesson: Under a good government, the Nile gains on the desert Under a bad government, the desert gains on the Nile
    36. 36. Conclusions To achieve water security, need  Investments in infrastructure to store and transport water, treat and reuse waste water  robust institutions, able to take and implement decisions  information and the capacity to predict, plan and cope Many societies want to move beyond water security  to take advantage of benefits derived from wise water use  “water for growth and development”  “land and water grabs” and threat, while  Biofuels displace food ... or  Better live & livelihoods as well as products and profits? Much of Africa still needs to achieve basic water security But also needs growth and development
    37. 37. Conclusions Perceptions are often wrong, conclusions not supported by evidence Lead to inappropriate policy reponses In world of sovereign and dependent countries,  Southern Africa dependent over past two decades  External policy has ignored local preferences  Imposed external preferences  Ignored historical evidence
    38. 38. Conclusions Challenges  Financial resources  Climate variability and change Response  Help region to manage water in support of its sustainable development  Support infrastructure development  Some climate funding to water management Will  Help countries to achieve development goals,  Make them more resilient to eventual climate change
    39. 39. Thank you!