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Hydropower flashpoints and water security challenges in central asia
 

Hydropower flashpoints and water security challenges in central asia

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    Hydropower flashpoints and water security challenges in central asia Hydropower flashpoints and water security challenges in central asia Presentation Transcript

    • Hydropower Flashpoints and Water Security Challenges in Central Asia Bakhtiyor Mukhammadiev US Embassy, Tashkent, Uzbekistan These slides are personal opinion only.They do not necessarily reflect the opinion of the U.S. Government.
    • U.S. Department of State Regional Environmental, Science, Technology and Health (ESTH) Office in Central Asia Based in Astana, Kazakhstan; Staff: Hub officer, two local staff, Pol/Econ/ESTH officers at each other US Missions; Reports to Bureau of Oceans and International Environmental and Scientific Affairs (OES) and Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs (SCA); Facilitation of collaboration between US and Central Asian countries in ESTH areas; bilateral ESTH-related issues; Example: Science and Technology cooperation agreements between US and Kazakhstan (signed March 2010) and US and Uzbekistan (signed Dec 2010) 2
    • Central Asian ESTH News Tajikistan Offended By Russian Leaders Remarks On Water Use In Region 02/11/2008 Regional Politics Get In Way of Bringing Power to the PeopleTajikistan Warns Of Possible 03/03/2007Water Shortage Crisis World Bank Group01/21/2009 Statement on Water- Energy in Central Asia 03/11/2010 Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan to Build Hydro PowerTajikistan: Water Is Weapon In Station, Despite Uzbekistan Will Halve Uzbekistan’s ObjectionUzbek Electricity Talks Energy To Tajikistan 04/12/200901/21/2009 02/12/2010 Examination of Allies: What Side of the Fence will Moscow Take in the Water Dispute? Tajik President Asks UN 04/22/2006 Battle Lines Drawn In Thaw in Tajik-Uzbek to Help Solve Central Central Asian Water Relations Asia’s Water Problem Dispute 03/12/2009 04/15/2007 04/19/2006 3
    • Central Asia StatisticsCountries Population GDP Dependence Energy Food ODA Military (106) (109 USD) on TW Security Security (106 USD) Spending (2009) (2009) (%) (%) (%) (2006) (109 USD) (2010) (2007)Kyrgyzstan 5.3 4.6 0 73 43 311 0.17Tajikistan 7.0 5.0 0 69 69 240 0.53Upstream 12.3 9.6 0 71 56 551 0.7Kazakhstan 15.9 115 42 100 0 172 1.6Turkmenistan 5.1 20 94 100 50 26 1.1Uzbekistan 27.8 32 77 100 45 149 1.6Downstream 48.8 139 71 100 32 347 4.3Central Asia 61.1 167 18 86 41 898 5.0 4
    • Understanding Central AsiaHISTORY LEGACY RELIGION NATION-BUILDINGPOLITICS ECONOMICS SECURITY GEOPOLITICS
    • Understanding Water in Central Asia Resource sovereignty Crumbling infrastructure Planned ProjectsAccess to water Environmental security Drought & floods RivalryEnergy security Water for Afghanistan Climate change Declaratory regionalism
    • TAJIKISTAN 1 ROGHUN UZBEKISTAN Shurob 2 ROGHUN NUREK Status: Under construction 3 Purpose: Hydropower, irrigation Volume: 13 km3 SANGTUDA 1 & 2 Baipaza Capacity: 3600 MW 4 Cost: 2.2-5 Billion USD Status: Under constructionTURKMENISTAN Purpose: Hydropower Duration: 2005-2010 6 5 Sangtuda-1 Capacity: 670+220 MW Sangtuda-2 Cost: 650 and 182 Million USD 7 Golovnaya Perepadnaya 8 10 DASHTIJUM Tsentralnaya 9 DASHTIJUM Status: Proposed Purpose: Hydropower, irrigation Volume: 17.6 km3 Capacity: 4000 MW Cost: 3.2 Billion USD AFGHANISTAN
    • Riparian positions: TAJIKISTAN “…Tajikistan has the right to develop hydropower potential along its domestic waterways. These include the Vakhsh River…” Address by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Tajikistan Hamrokhon Zarifi at the 17th OSCE Ministerial Council Meeting, Athens, 12/01/2009 “…The construction of Roghun Hydropower Plant on the Vakhsh River will not harm downstream interests…the Vakhsh River is responsible for only a small part of Amu-Darya flow, upstream from the existing Nurek dam, so it cannot hold back water…” Address by the President Emomali Rakhmon at the Roghun HPP site, 10/29/2009 “…Tajikistan worried about inefficiencies in water use in downstream countries. Total surface area of reservoirs in downstream countries is more than the Aral Sea, and more are being constructed…” Remarks of President Emomali Rakhmon at the IFAS Heads of State Summit, Almaty, 04/28/2009 President of Tajikistan Mr. Emomali Rakhmon, UN MDG Summit, 09/20/2010, New York “…Largest share of Central Asian water originates in Tajikistan…Tajikistan has a vested interest in maintaining adequate water. Tajikistan is concerned about global warming and glacial melt, which affects water supply…” Address by the President Emomali Rakhmon at the Roghun HPP site, 10/29/2009
    • Riparian positions: KYRGYZSTAN “…in such a difficult time for Kyrgyzstan, a launching of the first hydro-generator of Kambarata HPP-1 is a historic event for the country. Construction and launch of this HPP demonstrates the power of our country, and we do not intend to abandon the constructions of Kambarata-2 and Kambarata-1…We will be able to live well in both winter and summer, and are increasing our [electricity] export potential…Of course, we will cooperate on this plan with Uzbekistan…” Kyrgyzstans acting President Roza Otunbayeva presses a symbolic red button to start the first unit of Remarks of President Ms. Roza Otunbayeva at the hydroelectric power station Kambarata-2, launching ceremony of the first aggregate of the 08/30/2010 Kambarata-2 HPP, 08/30/2010 “…Kyrgyzstan is interested in rational utilization of water resources, in raising its investment potential [for hydropower projects], environmental safety and development of alternative energy sources, implementation of regional hydropower projects under the CASAREM, and primarily in the construction of transmission lines Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan-Afghanistan- Pakistan…” Remarks of Minister of Foreign Affairs of Kyrgyz Republic Mr. Ruslan Kazakbaev, UN MDG Summit, 09/27/2010, New York
    • Riparian positions: UZBEKISTAN “…New hydropower projects in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan violate existing agreements and are against to international law. Both Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan must receive prior-consent of downstream countries…” Press Release of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Uzbekistan, 02/23/2008 “…Uzbekistan stands firm on the need for binding international examination of all hydropower projects on transboundary rivers…such examinations must be carried out under the aegis of UN and include independent authoritative experts…” Press Release of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Uzbekistan, 04/14/2009 “…In accordance with international customary law, upstream countries are under obligation not to cause significant harm and to prevent, control and reduce transboundary impacts…” Address by President Islam Karimov to the participants of the International Aral Sea Conference, Tashkent, 04/11/2008 President of Uzbekistan Mr. Islam Karimov, UN MDG Summit, 09/20/2010, New York “… …The resolution of [water/energy] problems is the exclusive prerogative of the countries in the region… the interferences of the third parties/countries in water/energy problems of Central Asia is unacceptable…” Press Release of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Uzbekistan, 04/14/2009 “…Upstream countries can save energy through electricity loss reduction programs...[or] consider building smaller hydropower plants…” Press Release of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Uzbekistan, 04/24/2009
    • Riparian positions: KAZAKHSTAN “…Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, being countries downstream of the Syr Darya and Amu Darya rivers, need guarantees [offered by international feasibility studies]…It is a question of water supply to millions of people…Until the results of [international] expert testing are available, no dam should be built…” Remarks of President Nazarbayev, Press Briefing with President Karimov, Tashkent, Uzbekistan, 03/18/2010 “…"Over time, this [water] problem may turn out very large (and) it is necessary to secure drinking water for the entire Central Asian region…Why not recall a project to divert the flow of Siberian rivers into Central Asia?…” President of Kazakhstan Remarks of President Nazarbayev, Mr. Nursultan Nazarbayev, Press Briefing with President Medvedev, Ust- United Nations Kamenogorsk, Kazakhstan, 09/08/2010 “…it is important for Kazakhstan to address the issues of joint management and rational use of transboundary water resources of the [Central Asian] region through co-financing of regional projects of water management…” Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Kazakhstan www.mfa.kz
    • Riparian positions: TURKMENISTAN “…we must resolve these issues exclusively based on the universally accepted norms and principles of international law taking into account the interests of all States in the region and with participation of international organizations…” Remarks of President Berdymuhamedov, IFAS Heads of State Summit, 04/28/2009 “…the need for mandatory and transparent independent international technical, economic and environmental impact assessment of hydropower projects on rivers at their early design stages…” Remarks of President Berdymuhamedov, IFAS Heads of State Summit, 04/28/2009 “… Turkmenistan stands ready to supply neighbors with natural gas, LNG, and electricity. Once we solve the President of Turkmenistan problem of energy, we can easterly solve the problem of Mr. Gurbanguly Berdymuhamedov, water…” UN MDG Summit, 09/20/2010, New York Remarks of President Berdymuhamedov, IFAS Heads of State Summit, 04/28/2009 “…Turkmenistan urges the countries in the region - Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan to make a joint compensation to help [Tajikistan] resolve its energy problems, in exchange for a commitment to maintain the current level of water [Tajikistan] draws from cross-border rivers...” Remarks of President Berdymuhamedov at the meeting with President Rakhmon, 10/01/2009
    • Press Statement of the Regional Director ofWorld Bank on Roghun Assessment Studies 14
    • World Bank Roghun Project Assessment Studies - The Five-Point Program -Consultant The Bank will oversee consultant studies financed under IDA grant and credit to GOT,(Assessment) including a selection of consultants, contract negotiations and review of all interim andStudies draft reports. The Bank will also affect direct payment to the consultants. All short-listed consultants have been selected thru ICB and are experienced in similar projects.Regional Studies The bank will undertake certain studies independently of GOT, funded thru Bank managed trust funds. These studies will focus on: (a) alternatives to Roghun to meet both domestic energy needs and export opportunities; (b) possible mechanisms to manage reservoir operations with transboundary impacts; and (c) verification of hydrological data and analysis.Panels of Experts The Bank will select, manage and fund two International Panels of Experts that will participate in the studies and provide independent advice, guidance and quality assurance. Panel members will be well-know in their fields of expertise and will be drawn from outside former Soviet republics to ensure independence. The Engineering/Dam Safety Panel will focus on TEAS while the Environment/Social Panel will focus on the ESIA; however, the Panels shall coordinate and ensure necessary linkages between the two studies (Note: These Panels are usually convened by the Borrower)Riparian The Bank will facilitate a structured process for riparian involvement in the AssessmentInvolvement Studies, to include information exchange and access to independent experts. The specific program will be determined with input from riparians.Commitments GOT has committed to fully comply with all Bank operational policies and to align construction with study results; specifically as it concerns the construction of the coffer dam. The Bank’s involvement is contingent on ongoing GOT commitment to the operation policies and ensuring no river diversion prior to completion of studies.
    • Tashkent-2002