Agile PlanningSeptember Central Indiana MPUG          Matt Block
Quick Introduction    Developer by trade      – CS Major from Purdue (Go Boilers!)      – Developer at large manufacturin...
Agenda Agile           Planning – Common Myths      – Agile means no plans      – You can’t do fixed date projects in agi...
AGILE MEANS NO PLANSCopyright © 2012                          4Development Block, LLC
The Agile Manifesto                 Individuals and                                   over   Processes and Tools          ...
Agile Teams Plan Constantly “Plans are nothing;           planning is everything.”      – Dwight D. Eisenhower “I      p...
Levels of Planning in Agile                           Strategy                          Portfolio                         ...
Planning in ScrumCopyright © 2012                                             8Development Block, LLC
We Can’t Know Everything Up FrontCopyright © 2012                                       9Development Block, LLC
Agile is IterativeCopyright © 2012                                              10Development Block, LLC
Accuracy vs. Precision Plans            must be accurate, gain precision over     time      – We’ll be done in Q3.      –...
YOU CAN’T DO FIXED DATE   PROJECTS IN AGILECopyright © 2012                             12Development Block, LLC
The Agile Manifesto                 Individuals and                                   over   Processes and Tools          ...
Planning in Scrum                                             Fixed Date!Copyright © 2012                                 ...
Fixed Dates in Scrum                                                Fixed DateCopyright © 2012                            ...
What About Utilization?                         “Attempts to force non-deterministic                         systems to op...
The Iron Triangle                                                 Quality is part of scope                         Scope ...
The Release Burndown                          Release Burndown   Release Date600500400300200100 0Copyright © 2012         ...
RELEASE PLANNING IN AGILECopyright © 2012                               19Development Block, LLC
Levels of Planning in Agile                           Strategy                          Portfolio                         ...
What is It? Usually                trying to answer questions like…      – How much can be done by a given date?      – W...
What is Needed? Prioritized,           estimated backlog      – High level estimates from the team that will likely      ...
Velocity? Agile   teams usually use relative estimates, not     precise estimates      – This feature is about the same a...
Getting Confidence Intervals We can     obtain the 90% confidence intervals     using a team’s historical velocity values...
Using Confidence Intervals Apply     the confidence intervals to your backlog     to get a better idea of how much work w...
Using Confidence Intervals Apply    the confidence intervals to your backlog     to determine when a given set of feature...
Burndown with Confidence!                         Release Burndown   Release Date600500400300200100 0Copyright © 2012     ...
Credits and References Mike            Cohn      – http://www.mountaingoatsoftware.com      – Blog, Books, Articles, Pres...
Contact Information Matt            Block      – Email: matt@developmentblock.com      – Blog: http://www.developmentbloc...
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Agile Planning

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This is a presentation I gave at the Central Indiana MPUG September 2012 meeting.

Abstract:
There are many commonly held myths about agile. Two of these myths are that agile projects don’t do any planning and that you can’t do agile on a fixed date project. In this presentation we will disprove these two myths by exploring just how agile planning is accomplished and how you can not only use agile on fixed date projects but also improve your accuracy and consistency in hitting those dates with agile.

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Agile Planning

  1. 1. Agile PlanningSeptember Central Indiana MPUG Matt Block
  2. 2. Quick Introduction Developer by trade – CS Major from Purdue (Go Boilers!) – Developer at large manufacturing company Development Manager – Small software company – Introduced Agile Product Manager/Product Owner – Sounded good at the time  Development Manager – Large Software company – Leading Agile Transformation AgileIndy – Founding Member/OrganizerCopyright © 2012 2Development Block, LLC
  3. 3. Agenda Agile Planning – Common Myths – Agile means no plans – You can’t do fixed date projects in agile Agile Release Planning – An OverviewCopyright © 2012 3Development Block, LLC
  4. 4. AGILE MEANS NO PLANSCopyright © 2012 4Development Block, LLC
  5. 5. The Agile Manifesto Individuals and over Processes and Tools Interactions over Comprehensive Working Software Documentation Customer over Contract Collaboration Negotiation Responding to over Following a Plan ChangeCopyright © 2012 5Development Block, LLC
  6. 6. Agile Teams Plan Constantly “Plans are nothing; planning is everything.” – Dwight D. Eisenhower “I plan to re-plan” – Popular agile t-shirtCopyright © 2012 6Development Block, LLC
  7. 7. Levels of Planning in Agile Strategy Portfolio Product • 1-2 times per year • Product evolution over time Release • 3-4 times per year • Feature/Date tradeoffs Iteration • Every 2-4 weeks • What will fit in this iteration? • Every day Daily • How to complete comittementCopyright © 2012 7Development Block, LLC
  8. 8. Planning in ScrumCopyright © 2012 8Development Block, LLC
  9. 9. We Can’t Know Everything Up FrontCopyright © 2012 9Development Block, LLC
  10. 10. Agile is IterativeCopyright © 2012 10Development Block, LLC
  11. 11. Accuracy vs. Precision Plans must be accurate, gain precision over time – We’ll be done in Q3. – We’ll be done in September. – We’ll be done on September 10. Precision is expensive, and more likely to be wrong. While both accuracy and precision are desirable, accuracy is much more valuable.Copyright © 2012 11Development Block, LLC
  12. 12. YOU CAN’T DO FIXED DATE PROJECTS IN AGILECopyright © 2012 12Development Block, LLC
  13. 13. The Agile Manifesto Individuals and over Processes and Tools Interactions over Comprehensive Working Software Documentation Customer over Contract Collaboration Negotiation Responding to over Following a Plan ChangeCopyright © 2012 13Development Block, LLC
  14. 14. Planning in Scrum Fixed Date!Copyright © 2012 14Development Block, LLC
  15. 15. Fixed Dates in Scrum Fixed DateCopyright © 2012 15Development Block, LLC
  16. 16. What About Utilization? “Attempts to force non-deterministic systems to operate at greater than 80% efficiency will cause short bursts of stabilization followed by extreme periods of destructive and unpredictable variations from that goal.” - W. Edwards DemingCopyright © 2012 16Development Block, LLC
  17. 17. The Iron Triangle  Quality is part of scope Scope – It is built in from the beginning, not “tested in” at the end.  Value is part of scope – Higher value items are delivered sooner  “Depth” is part of scope Cost Schedule – Do you need a Porsche or will a Kia do?Copyright © 2012 17Development Block, LLC
  18. 18. The Release Burndown Release Burndown Release Date600500400300200100 0Copyright © 2012 18Development Block, LLC
  19. 19. RELEASE PLANNING IN AGILECopyright © 2012 19Development Block, LLC
  20. 20. Levels of Planning in Agile Strategy Portfolio Product • 1-2 times per year • Product evolution over time Release • 3-4 times per year • Feature/Date tradeoffs Iteration • Every 2-4 weeks • What will fit in this iteration? • Every day Daily • How to complete comittementCopyright © 2012 20Development Block, LLC
  21. 21. What is It? Usually trying to answer questions like… – How much can be done by a given date? – When can this set of features be shipped? – How many teams do we need working on this project?Copyright © 2012 21Development Block, LLC
  22. 22. What is Needed? Prioritized, estimated backlog – High level estimates from the team that will likely do the work. – Prioritized by business value. Velocity – Average amount of work a given team can complete in a given sprint. – Usually use the previous 8 – 12 sprints.Copyright © 2012 22Development Block, LLC
  23. 23. Velocity? Agile teams usually use relative estimates, not precise estimates – This feature is about the same as that one. – Often expressed as Story Points using a modified Fibonacci sequence (1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 20, 40, … )A team’s Velocity is the sum of the story points for all of the user stories/features that are completed in a sprintCopyright © 2012 23Development Block, LLC
  24. 24. Getting Confidence Intervals We can obtain the 90% confidence intervals using a team’s historical velocity values from recent sprints. 24  Sort the velocities from the 26 previous 9 sprints. 28  Throw out the highest and lowest. 28  The remaining highest and lowest 30 is your 90% confidence range. 30 31  www.mountaingoatsoftware.com 32 has good tools to help with this 35Copyright © 2012 24Development Block, LLC
  25. 25. Using Confidence Intervals Apply the confidence intervals to your backlog to get a better idea of how much work will be done by a given date. We will almost certainly get here (8x26) At our median velocity, we’ll get here (8x30) The most we could realistically expect is here (8x32)Copyright © 2012 25Development Block, LLC
  26. 26. Using Confidence Intervals Apply the confidence intervals to your backlog to determine when a given set of features will be done. – We will almost definitely be done in 20 sprints (500 / 26) – At our median velocity, we will be done in 17 sprints (500 / 30) – The best we could realistically expect is to be done in 16 sprints (200 / 32)Copyright © 2012 26Development Block, LLC
  27. 27. Burndown with Confidence! Release Burndown Release Date600500400300200100 0Copyright © 2012 27Development Block, LLC
  28. 28. Credits and References Mike Cohn – http://www.mountaingoatsoftware.com – Blog, Books, Articles, Presentations – Agile Estimating and Planning, Succeeding with Agile – Portions of this presentation were taken from his redistributable Introduction to Scrum presentationCopyright © 2012 28Development Block, LLC
  29. 29. Contact Information Matt Block – Email: matt@developmentblock.com – Blog: http://www.developmentblock.com AgileIndy – Meetup: http://www.meetup.com/agileindy/ – Meet 2nd Wednesday @ 5:30Copyright © 2012 29Development Block, LLC

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