El Niño: Past, Present, and Future Stephanie Smith Chirley Quillian Derryl Carter

Introduction El Niño is a disruption of the ocean-atmosphere system originating in the Tropical Pacific having important consequences for weather and climate around the globe. (1) During El Niño, warmer than average sea surface occur in the Equatorial central and eastern Pacific. (2) This causes a change in wind patterns, which causes a shift in where the most rainfall occurs. (2)

El Niño is a disruption of the ocean-atmosphere system originating in the Tropical Pacific having important consequences for weather and climate around the globe. (1)

During El Niño, warmer than average sea surface occur in the Equatorial central and eastern Pacific. (2)

This causes a change in wind patterns, which causes a shift in where the most rainfall occurs. (2)

El Niño Visually in the Equatorial Pacific (1) The white arrows are surface water motion. The black arrows are air movement. The colors indicate sea surface temperatures, with warmer colors associated to warmer temperatures.

El Niño’s Beginnings Peruvian fishermen first coined the term more than 100 years ago to describe the unusually warm waters that would occasionally form along the coast of Ecuador and Peru. (4) As it usually occurred near Christmas, the name given to it was El Niño, spanish for “the boy child”, referring to Christ. (3) Senor Dr. Luis Carranza write a small article on the phenomenon, calling attention to it in 1891. His article was then referenced in an 1895 talk given at the 6 th International Geographical Congress in London. (4)

Peruvian fishermen first coined the term more than 100 years ago to describe the unusually warm waters that would occasionally form along the coast of Ecuador and Peru. (4)

As it usually occurred near Christmas, the name given to it was El Niño, spanish for “the boy child”, referring to Christ. (3)

Senor Dr. Luis Carranza write a small article on the phenomenon, calling attention to it in 1891. His article was then referenced in an 1895 talk given at the 6 th International Geographical Congress in London. (4)

Observations and Recordings In 1923, Sir Gilbert Walter came to realize that El Niño was a large scale pattern extending over the entire tropic Pacific region. (3) He began taking oldest records began in the early 20 th century with the beginning of measuring the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), the difference between surface air pressure of the city of Darwin, Australia and Tahiti in French Polynesia. (3) Since, it has been realized that day to day weather means that the SOI cannot be used from month to month, and is better suited in more long-term observations. (3)

In 1923, Sir Gilbert Walter came to realize that El Niño was a large scale pattern extending over the entire tropic Pacific region. (3)

He began taking oldest records began in the early 20 th century with the beginning of measuring the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), the difference between surface air pressure of the city of Darwin, Australia and Tahiti in French Polynesia. (3)

Since, it has been realized that day to day weather means that the SOI cannot be used from month to month, and is better suited in more long-term observations. (3)

Today’s Recordings Based on satellites and ocean buoys recording surface temperatures Etc etc, more present stuff

Based on satellites and ocean buoys recording surface temperatures

Etc etc, more present stuff

Info It is believed that El Niño conditions suppress the development of hurricanes and tropical storms in the Atlantic. (2) Abnormal ocean currents during El Niño bring warm waters eastward from the western Pacific and leave low tides in the western Pacific. Both can cause the bleaching and death of corals, damaging the balance of these ecosystems. (2) Scientists study El Niño in the tropical Pacific Ocean because it is the most common and powerful predictor of seasonal climate change. (2)

It is believed that El Niño conditions suppress the development of hurricanes and tropical storms in the Atlantic. (2)

Abnormal ocean currents during El Niño bring warm waters eastward from the western Pacific and leave low tides in the western Pacific. Both can cause the bleaching and death of corals, damaging the balance of these ecosystems. (2)

Scientists study El Niño in the tropical Pacific Ocean because it is the most common and powerful predictor of seasonal climate change. (2)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)’s Role in Monitoring El Niño Since 1982, have had two polar-orbiting satellites obtaining information to produce sea surface temperatures. Scientists generate monthly average rainfall charts from satellite information. Satellites also monitor surface winds. Recent experimental chart depicting regions of potential coral bleaching.

Since 1982, have had two polar-orbiting satellites obtaining information to produce sea surface temperatures.

Scientists generate monthly average rainfall charts from satellite information.

Satellites also monitor surface winds.

Recent experimental chart depicting regions of potential coral bleaching.

Info The time between events is irregular, but they tend to recur every three to seven years. (3)

The time between events is irregular, but they tend to recur every three to seven years. (3)

Works Cited http://www.elnino.noaa.gov http://www.climate.noaa.gov/index.jsp?pg=/about_climate/about_index.jsp&about=ella http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/ http://faculty.washington.edu/kessler/occasionally-asked-questions.html

http://www.elnino.noaa.gov

http://www.climate.noaa.gov/index.jsp?pg=/about_climate/about_index.jsp&about=ella

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/

http://faculty.washington.edu/kessler/occasionally-asked-questions.html

How ENSO Is Currently Detected and Predicted? Data on tropical rainfall, wind, ocean temperature patterns, and changes in hurricane formation conditions are provided by satellites

Data on tropical rainfall, wind, ocean temperature patterns, and changes in hurricane formation conditions are provided by satellites

How ENSO Is Currently Detected and Predicted? What monitors sea-surface and upper ocean temperatures are ocean buoys

What monitors sea-surface and upper ocean temperatures are ocean buoys

How ENSO Is Currently Detected and Predicted? To monitor global weather and climate patterns, and El Nino influences radiosondes are used.

To monitor global weather and climate patterns, and El Nino influences radiosondes are used.

How ENSO Is Currently Detected and Predicted? Super computers help scientists predict El Nino With the data collected, they put them into easier formats then interpreted by scientists Tools can monitor for near-real time

Super computers help scientists predict El Nino

With the data collected, they put them into easier formats then interpreted by scientists

Tools can monitor for near-real time

Predictions of ENSO Statistical Models Correlate observed weather conditions with occurrences of El Nino Based on events that actually occurred Dynamical Models Based on equations from current conditions Will rely on more as technology advances

Statistical Models

Correlate observed weather conditions with occurrences of El Nino

Based on events that actually occurred

Dynamical Models

Based on equations from current conditions

Will rely on more as technology advances

Statistical and Dynamical Models

The Future of El Niño

The Future of El Niño The general scientific consensus is that, in the future, El Niño will probably occur more frequently and with more intensity . This will likely be driven by global warming. How/why would this happen?

The general scientific consensus is that, in the future, El Niño will probably occur more frequently and with more intensity .

This will likely be driven by global warming.

How/why would this happen?

The Future of El Niño Scientists look to the past for clues. Fossil record (seeds, plants, etc.) Geologic record

Scientists look to the past for clues.

The Future of El Niño They also use computer simulations to predict how El Niño would react under different circumstances.

They also use computer simulations to predict how El Niño would react under different circumstances.

The Future of El Niño We know that: In the distant past, El Niño tended to be stronger during warmer times. Since the 1970’s, El Niño has been occurring more frequently and with greater effect (storms, etc.) What scientists disagree on is exactly how global warming will affect this increasing El Niño trend.

We know that:

In the distant past, El Niño tended to be stronger during warmer times.

Since the 1970’s, El Niño has been occurring more frequently and with greater effect (storms, etc.)

What scientists disagree on is exactly how global warming will affect this increasing El Niño trend.

The Future of El Niño Some believe we will enter a permanent El Niño state, while others think the opposite – we will experience its counterpart, La Niña. Whichever you believe, the evidence is strong that we’ll continue to see El Niño more frequently in coming decades.

Some believe we will enter a permanent El Niño state, while others think the opposite – we will experience its counterpart, La Niña.

Whichever you believe, the evidence is strong that we’ll continue to see El Niño more frequently in coming decades.

What does this mean? Stronger, more frequent ENSO situations will have far-reaching effects on the environment: Fertile areas could become desert Sea levels could rise Global temperature balance would be affected Aliens might attack Earth a.k.a. Why should I care?

Stronger, more frequent ENSO situations will have far-reaching effects on the environment:

Fertile areas could become desert

Sea levels could rise

Global temperature balance would be affected

Aliens might attack Earth

Works Cited http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/1999/01/990111180607.htm http://www.geotimes.org/apr03/NN_nino.html http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2007/2007GL031027.shtml

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/1999/01/990111180607.htm

http://www.geotimes.org/apr03/NN_nino.html

http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2007/2007GL031027.shtml