Minnesota Demographic Change and Dentistry
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  • We recalibrated our demographic forecasting model this year, updating it to the most recent data and found that people still age about 1 year every 12 months. The updated forecasts tweaked the numbers a bit, but the basic trends are still there. Over the next decade, we will see a large increase in the number of people age 50 to 70 (the Boom Generation), declines in the number of people age 40-50 (Gen X), and declined in the number of people 15-24. The number of younger children and young adults age 25-35 (Gen Y) will increase

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  • 1. Minnesota Demographic Change And Dentistry Tom Gillaspy, State Demographer Mn Dept of Administration March 2008
  • 2. Minnesota Ranks Highly in Many Social/Economic Indicators
    • 2 nd percent of 16-64 employed (76.9%)
    • 8th lowest poverty rate
    • 1 st percent with health insurance 2004-06 ave
    • 9 th median family income in 2006
    • 1 st Kids Count 2007
    • 4 th lowest rate of disability among people age 16-64
    • 1 st with at least high school degree (90.7%)
    • 12 th with at least a bachelor’s degree
    • 1 st home ownership
    • 2 nd United Health Foundation ranking of state healthiness 2007
    Updated October 2007
  • 3. Minnesota Ranks Highly In Many Health Outcome Measures 2005 United Health Foundation Rankings 7564 5728 1 YPPL 6.7 4.8 2 Infant Mortality 80.9% 85.2% 11 Immunization (children 19-35 months) $162 $249 6 Public Health Spending 75.4% 75.8% 27 Pre Natal Care 15.7% 8.9% 1 Lack of Health Insurance 23.1% 22.6% 21 Obesity 1.5 1.0 3 Motor Vehicle Deaths US Rate Mn Rate Rank
  • 4. Successful, Yes But Demographic Mega-trends Are Altering The Face Of Minnesota
    • Suburban growth/ rural and central city not growing
    • Increasingly diverse
    • Aging
    • And these changes are altering the client base for dentistry as well as the workforce
  • 5. Minnesota Is Projected To Add 1 ¼ Million People In The Next 30 Years Minnesota State Demographic Center Projections
  • 6. Most Growth Is In The Twin City Suburban Doughnut
    • Twin Cities accounts for 78% of growth in the state
    • Suburban ring is spreading outward
    • 7 of 13 metro counties in fastest 100 growing of the nation
    • Rural and central city declines since 1950
    • Increasing metropolitan and lakeshore development have implications for natural resource management
  • 7.  
  • 8. Minnesota is Growing More Diverse
    • Minnesota is one of the least diverse states in the nation—13% minority v US 32%
    • Over half of total population growth this decade is minority.
    • And this is related to age—new, diverse population is younger
  • 9. Upper Midwest Becoming More Diverse But Still Less Than The Nation Note: Population except white alone, not Hispanic, 2005 Census Bureau estimate
  • 10. Minnesota’s Children Are More Diverse Than Older People 2000 Census
  • 11. Students Speaking Non-English Language At Home: Much Of The Growth In ESL Enrollment Is Directly Related To Growth In Local Employment Source: Mn Dept of Education data, Districts of more than 100 enrollment.
  • 12. Aging Is The Dominant Demographic Trend In Minnesota And The Nation
    • It is not normal for a society to age
    • Dramatic changes will be seen in 2008 and 2011 and beyond
    • The leading edge of “Boomers” turn 60 this year!
    • By 2020, the number of Minnesotans 65+ will increase by 53%. By 2030 it will double
    • Aging, combined with growth and increased diversity will lead to challenges and opportunities not fully anticipated
  • 13. From 2005 to 2015, Largest Growth in Minnesota Will Be in Ages 55 to 69 Source: Minnesota State Demographic Center Numbers are rounded
  • 14. The Boom Generation Starts Turning 65 in 2011 65+ Passes School Age Around 2020 Census counts & State Demographer projection, revised 2007
  • 15. Aging Will Alter Oral Health Services
    • Baby-boom aging--maintenance on complicated dental appliances and prosthetics , such as bridges.
    • Older Americans are retaining more of their teeth than in the past, and are thus more likely to experience destructive periodontal disease .
    • While the percentage of individuals older than age 65 without any teeth has declined tremendously over past 20-30 years, it is still higher than for those younger than 65.
    • Older adults often have additional medical conditions that cause a higher level of maintenance to be necessary in order to maintain their oral health.
  • 16. Minnesota Will See a 30 Percent Jump in Workers Turning Age 62 Beginning 2008 2005 ACS
  • 17. Competition For The Future Workforce Will Increase Census Bureau US Proj, Mn State Demographer revised 2007
  • 18. Migration Will Be An Increasingly Important Component To The Slowing Labor Force Growth State Demographer projection revised 2007
  • 19. Two Thirds of Active Minnesota Dentist Are 50+ 2006 American Community Survey
  • 20. Dentists Are Older Than The Overall Workforce 2006 ACS
  • 21. U.S. Age Structure Of Dentals And Related Occupations 2006 American Community Survey