We recalibrated our demographic forecasting model this year, updating it to the most recent data and found that people still age about 1 year every 12 months. The updated forecasts tweaked the numbers a bit, but the basic trends are still there. Over the next decade, we will see a large increase in the number of people age 50 to 70 (the Boom Generation), declines in the number of people age 40-50 (Gen X), and declined in the number of people 15-24. The number of younger children and young adults age 25-35 (Gen Y) will increase
Minnesota Demographic Change and Dentistry
Minnesota Demographic Change And Dentistry Tom Gillaspy, State Demographer Mn Dept of Administration March 2008
Minnesota Ranks Highly in Many Social/Economic Indicators <ul><li>2 nd percent of 16-64 employed (76.9%) </li></ul><ul><li>8th lowest poverty rate </li></ul><ul><li>1 st percent with health insurance 2004-06 ave </li></ul><ul><li>9 th median family income in 2006 </li></ul><ul><li>1 st Kids Count 2007 </li></ul><ul><li>4 th lowest rate of disability among people age 16-64 </li></ul><ul><li>1 st with at least high school degree (90.7%) </li></ul><ul><li>12 th with at least a bachelor’s degree </li></ul><ul><li>1 st home ownership </li></ul><ul><li>2 nd United Health Foundation ranking of state healthiness 2007 </li></ul>Updated October 2007
Minnesota Ranks Highly In Many Health Outcome Measures 2005 United Health Foundation Rankings 7564 5728 1 YPPL 6.7 4.8 2 Infant Mortality 80.9% 85.2% 11 Immunization (children 19-35 months) $162 $249 6 Public Health Spending 75.4% 75.8% 27 Pre Natal Care 15.7% 8.9% 1 Lack of Health Insurance 23.1% 22.6% 21 Obesity 1.5 1.0 3 Motor Vehicle Deaths US Rate Mn Rate Rank
Successful, Yes But Demographic Mega-trends Are Altering The Face Of Minnesota <ul><li>Suburban growth/ rural and central city not growing </li></ul><ul><li>Increasingly diverse </li></ul><ul><li>Aging </li></ul><ul><li>And these changes are altering the client base for dentistry as well as the workforce </li></ul>
Minnesota Is Projected To Add 1 ¼ Million People In The Next 30 Years Minnesota State Demographic Center Projections
Most Growth Is In The Twin City Suburban Doughnut <ul><li>Twin Cities accounts for 78% of growth in the state </li></ul><ul><li>Suburban ring is spreading outward </li></ul><ul><li>7 of 13 metro counties in fastest 100 growing of the nation </li></ul><ul><li>Rural and central city declines since 1950 </li></ul><ul><li>Increasing metropolitan and lakeshore development have implications for natural resource management </li></ul>
Minnesota is Growing More Diverse <ul><li>Minnesota is one of the least diverse states in the nation—13% minority v US 32% </li></ul><ul><li>Over half of total population growth this decade is minority. </li></ul><ul><li>And this is related to age—new, diverse population is younger </li></ul>
Upper Midwest Becoming More Diverse But Still Less Than The Nation Note: Population except white alone, not Hispanic, 2005 Census Bureau estimate
Minnesota’s Children Are More Diverse Than Older People 2000 Census
Students Speaking Non-English Language At Home: Much Of The Growth In ESL Enrollment Is Directly Related To Growth In Local Employment Source: Mn Dept of Education data, Districts of more than 100 enrollment.
Aging Is The Dominant Demographic Trend In Minnesota And The Nation <ul><li>It is not normal for a society to age </li></ul><ul><li>Dramatic changes will be seen in 2008 and 2011 and beyond </li></ul><ul><li>The leading edge of “Boomers” turn 60 this year! </li></ul><ul><li>By 2020, the number of Minnesotans 65+ will increase by 53%. By 2030 it will double </li></ul><ul><li>Aging, combined with growth and increased diversity will lead to challenges and opportunities not fully anticipated </li></ul>
From 2005 to 2015, Largest Growth in Minnesota Will Be in Ages 55 to 69 Source: Minnesota State Demographic Center Numbers are rounded
The Boom Generation Starts Turning 65 in 2011 65+ Passes School Age Around 2020 Census counts & State Demographer projection, revised 2007
Aging Will Alter Oral Health Services <ul><li>Baby-boom aging--maintenance on complicated dental appliances and prosthetics , such as bridges. </li></ul><ul><li>Older Americans are retaining more of their teeth than in the past, and are thus more likely to experience destructive periodontal disease . </li></ul><ul><li>While the percentage of individuals older than age 65 without any teeth has declined tremendously over past 20-30 years, it is still higher than for those younger than 65. </li></ul><ul><li>Older adults often have additional medical conditions that cause a higher level of maintenance to be necessary in order to maintain their oral health. </li></ul>
Minnesota Will See a 30 Percent Jump in Workers Turning Age 62 Beginning 2008 2005 ACS
Competition For The Future Workforce Will Increase Census Bureau US Proj, Mn State Demographer revised 2007
Migration Will Be An Increasingly Important Component To The Slowing Labor Force Growth State Demographer projection revised 2007
Two Thirds of Active Minnesota Dentist Are 50+ 2006 American Community Survey
Dentists Are Older Than The Overall Workforce 2006 ACS
U.S. Age Structure Of Dentals And Related Occupations 2006 American Community Survey
A particular slide catching your eye?
Clipping is a handy way to collect important slides you want to go back to later.