Beyond Transition- Towards Inclusive Societes (Regional Human Development Report 2011)


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UNDP presentation, Oxford, June 2011

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  • Downward spiral: discrimination/gender bias raising unemployment; ineffective health, education, social spending leading to lower tax baseUpward spiral: education of girls in Muslim societies; human capital gains from including Roma in labor markets.
  • WB Index government effectiveness Barriers to businessInformality
  • Actually the study has a data set on individual characteristics and local context, which makes it possible to combine the individual risks fro exclusion
  • Beyond Transition- Towards Inclusive Societes (Regional Human Development Report 2011)

    1. 1. Launch of Regional Human Development Report 2011—Oxford<br />
    2. 2. Oxford—natural place for launch:<br />evolving OPHI-UNDP cooperation <br />large network of HD professionals and students <br />Report is the fruit of very hard work, with support of many dedicated people—we thank them all<br />In particular, large team of authors—many are here, others follow the launch on-line.<br />Why Oxford; acknowledgements<br />
    3. 3. Human Development and Social Inclusion<br />Complementary, people-centered concepts; evolved in parallel so far <br />Human development isthegoalto achieve—people living long, healthy and creative lives they have reason to value; <br />Social inclusion isthe meansto get there; and<br />Social exclusion—the existence of cumulative deprivations in three dimensions—is the obstacleto be overcome to achieve the goal.<br />
    4. 4. Overall objectives of the Report <br />Understand the dynamics of social exclusion, inclusion and human development in the region since 1991<br />Provide tools for assessing levels and intensity of social exclusion, detecting its main causes and the risks <br />Identify determinants of social exclusion in individual dimensions<br />Formulate realistic, evidence-based policy responses at central and local levels to effectively address it <br />
    5. 5. To achieve these objectives, we<br />Define the chain of social exclusion: risks interacting with drivers and local characteristics to result in exclusion status <br />Develop an operational methodology for social exclusion measurement and monitoring at national and local levels<br />Analyze patterns of exclusion <br />Provide policy recommendations rooted in local specifics to enhance social inclusion.<br />
    6. 6. Exclusion, not multi-dimensional poverty<br />Same methodology as MPI, but different application <br />Social exclusion: accumulation of deprivations<br /> -Dynamic process: interaction of exclusion risks, drivers, local context; feedback loops<br />-Relative (but not subjective): deprivations are measured relative to others in same society; but the measure is not about feelings of deprivation—it is about not having access to basic consumption basket, public services or social networks.<br />6<br />
    7. 7. The social exclusion chain<br />Individual characteristics gender, ethnicity, health status<br />Feedback to traits<br />Positive: empowered, educated, Negative – accident as consequence of informal labor<br />Inclusion<br />Drivers of Exclusion<br />Local context: <br />rural, mono-town<br />Positive reinforcing feedback i.e. vote, voice or action<br />Institutions, policies and values<br />Exclusion<br />Negative feedback i.e. informality, unemployment<br />
    8. 8. The report’s quantitative underpinnings<br />Social Exclusion Survey in 6 countries of the region (FYROM, SRB, UKR, MVA, TAJ, KAZ)<br />Locality-specific data for contextualization of survey<br />Secondary data on all countries of the region<br />Development and other indicators relevant to social exclusion and inclusion <br />
    9. 9. Quantifying social exclusion<br />
    10. 10. Multidimensional Poverty Approach<br />Same UNDP/OPHI approach as used for Global HDR 2010 for poverty<br />‘Dual cutoff’ method: <br /><ul><li>within dimension: based on deprivation with respect to given dimension
    11. 11. across dimensions: overall threshold (number of deprivations) beyond which a person is considered socially excluded </li></li></ul><li>Economic: Deprivation in <br />incomes, basic needs, <br />access to employment, financial services; <br />material needs and lack of amenities; <br />housing and ICT-related exclusion. <br />Social services: Access to and affordability of <br />education and health services;<br />other public services, such as public utilities. <br />Participation: Deprivation in <br />political, cultural and social participation;<br />political, cultural and social support networks.<br />Three dimensions of social exclusion (with 8 indicators each):<br />
    12. 12. Tough measurement question:How many deprivations does it take to be excluded?<br />Threshold-number of deprivations, a matter of choice<br />Our survey: 9 <br />12<br />
    13. 13. The cut-off line affects the share of excluded, but not countries’ relative standing<br />
    14. 14. Share of socially excluded and the social exclusion index <br />
    15. 15. Highly even contribution of individual dimensions to overall exclusion<br />
    16. 16. Main findings: <br />Individual characteristics <br />and exclusion status<br />
    17. 17. Social exclusion and age: children and elderly are most affected<br />
    18. 18. Employment is crucial to avoid social exclusion<br />
    19. 19. Low education level raises social exclusion <br />
    20. 20. Certain groups are more excluded (Serbia Survey)<br />
    21. 21. Higher Human Development Index correlates closely with higher social inclusion<br />
    22. 22. Drivers of exclusion <br />and their implications <br />for exclusion status<br />
    23. 23. Poor governance goes closely with exclusion<br />23<br />
    24. 24. Barriers to business exacerbate social exclusion<br />
    25. 25. A better functioning labour market enhances social inclusion<br />
    26. 26. Informal employment brings dubious benefits<br />
    27. 27. Less tolerant values enhance social exclusion<br />
    28. 28. Specifics of local context<br />and its implications <br />for social exclusion<br />
    29. 29. Tolerance of corruption heightens social exclusion<br />
    30. 30. Location matters greatly! <br />30<br />
    31. 31. Social exclusion is particularly high in mono-company towns <br />
    32. 32. The quality of local infrastructure also affects social exclusion<br />
    33. 33. Lasting effects of environmental disasters in yet another area: social exclusion<br />
    34. 34. Towards an ‘individualized approach’ to social exclusion <br />Integrating individual risks, <br /> specifics of local context, and values.<br />
    35. 35. Individual vulnerabilities (like disability) interact with local conditions and amplify exclusion<br />Different combinations of individual risks, drivers and local context results in different levels of social exclusion<br />Average<br />Average risk of exclusion in the region hides significant territorial differences…<br />Capital or <br />economic center<br />Disabled doesn’t mean automatically excluded! Local conditions matter<br />Small town<br />Village<br />
    36. 36. Combination of risks, concluded<br />
    37. 37. In sum: both who you are and where you live matter <br />If you are young person, with low education, living in a village, or a town with a single company—you face a high risk of exclusion…<br />…and secondary education doesn’t help much in these conditions…<br />+<br />…while vibrant business environment makes a lot of difference<br />+<br />…economic centers offer more opportunities (even with low education)<br />+<br />…and much more if you are educated<br />+<br />+<br />+<br />37<br />
    38. 38. Conclusions <br /><ul><li>Transition to a market economy in the region left some out in the cold. Reforms have not always helped to improve lives.
    39. 39. It could be anyone! Everyone is at risk of being left out of society, not only marginalized groups.
    40. 40. Income doesn’t tell the whole story ! To be part of society, you also need access to public services, and opportunities to participate in community life.
    41. 41. Attitudes, local economy characteristics, policies matter
    42. 42. No single policy can eliminate exclusion - Policies need to be comprehensive to break the social exclusion chain</li></ul>38<br />
    43. 43. Recommendations<br />Genuine, sustained commitment to social inclusion with clear targets<br />Preventive focus on individual vulnerabilities<br />Clear focus on people’s capacities<br />Addressing institutional drivers is crucial<br />Match this with deliberate efforts to change mindsets<br />UNDP can help:<br />We can generate projectable ideas <br />We can implement them region-wide using our country office network, and partners<br />