IT Warfare since 1997

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: 15년간의 IT전쟁의 역사와 삼국쟁패론 …

: 15년간의 IT전쟁의 역사와 삼국쟁패론
2011.9 제 2회 엔트리브 게임컨퍼런스에서 발표한 자료로, 3개월동안 30여명의 컨퍼런스 발표자들의 프레젠테이션을 트레이닝하고 같이 준비하면서 프레젠테이션에서 가장 준비하기 까다로운 서사시 플롯을 잡아 테마와 스토리를 만든 교육적 목적의 프레젠테이션이었다.

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  • 1. NtreevGameConference
  • 2. IT Warfare Since 1997 Ntreev Game Conference
  • 3. !Chapter!1.!게임의!룰 Osmos
  • 4. !Chapter!2.!두!개의!전장 Enterprise & Consumer
  • 5. Enterprise
  • 6. Enterprise Consumer
  • 7. Enterprise Consumer
  • 8. Enterprise Consumer 고객의$차이 기업(법인) 개인
  • 9. Enterprise Consumer Storage Server PCDB Back-End Network Front-End Office S/W PC OS
  • 10. Enterprise Consumer 변화의$속도 느리다 빠르다
  • 11. Enterprise Consumer
  • 12. Music PhoneEnterprise Consumer Book TV Movie
  • 13. Enterprise Consumer
  • 14. Apple Data Center North Carolina-"10억달러의"설비투자-"HP"Server-"MS"Azure,"Amazone"AWS
  • 15. Enterprise Consumer 3rd Suplier
  • 16. Enterprise
  • 17. Enterprise War!Chapter!3.!다섯!전쟁의!승리자들
  • 18. 1. Database WAR 완벽한!승리자
  • 19. ~1993 트로이카%시대Mainframe Market UNIX & Windows Market DB2 Informix
  • 20. 1993~1994 치열한%전투메인프레임 소송 쇠퇴 Informix 매각
  • 21. 1994~2000 재편성 Informix
  • 22. 2000~2011독점적%지위
  • 23. 2000~2011독점적%지위 MySQL
  • 24. 2000~2011독점적%지위
  • 25. Database%전쟁요약 ✓"600억달러"시장 ✓"독점적"지위"확립 ✓"시장점유율"50%"육박 ✓"매출"356억"달러 ✓"NC반란"(1996)"실패 ✓"ERP전쟁"(vs"SAP) ✓"서버전쟁"(Sun"인수)
  • 26. 2. Server WAR 2강!1약으로!압축된!각축전!
  • 27. 2002년말%상황430억달러"규모,"2001년"500억달러에서"8%감소"31.1% 25.2% 15.1% 7.5%
  • 28. 2010년말%상황 488억달러"규모,"진입장벽"높음31.4% 30.8% 14.7% 6.3% 4.4%
  • 29. Server%전쟁요약 ✓"10년전"시장규모"유지 ✓"SUN,"Compaq의"퇴출 ✓"IBM-HP"양강체제"10년 ✓"Dell의"꾸준한"성장 ✓"Cloud가"관건
  • 30. 3. Network WAR 연전연승의!무결점타자
  • 31. Router Hub LAN!Card
  • 32. 70 %!market!share IP RouterTelephony Switch F5 Brocade Citrix
  • 33. Network%전쟁요약 ✓"수많은"경쟁자,"일방적게임" ✓"압도적"점유율"70% ✓"600억달러의"시장 ✓"서버시장"노크중
  • 34. 4. Storage WAR 거인들!사이에서!살아남다
  • 35. Storage%전쟁요약 2010 Market Revenue Share1 EMC 5,441 25.6% ✓"꾸준히"시장을"지배2 IBM 2,922 13.8% ✓"212억달러의"규모3 NetApp 2,352 11.1% ✓"2위와"두배격차4 HP 2,352 11.1% ✓"많은"경쟁자5 Dell 1,926 9.1% ✓"서버"거인들의"참여 Others 6,229 29.3% 21,222
  • 36. 5. PC WAR 기나!긴!전쟁,!상처뿐인!영광
  • 37. 1996 70.9million 10% 8.6% 6.0% 5.9%5.1%
  • 38. 1997 80.6million 13.1% 8.6% 5.5% 5.3%5.1%
  • 39. 1998 92.9million 13.8% 8.2% 7.9% 5.8%4.3%
  • 40. 1999 113.5million 13.2% 9.8% 7.9% 6.4%5.2%
  • 41. 2000 134.7million 12.8% 10.8% 7.6% 6.8%4.3%
  • 42. 2001 128.1million 13.1% 11.1% 7.2% 6.4%3.8%
  • 43. 2002 132.4million 16.2% 15.2% 6.0%3.4%3.2%
  • 44. 2003 168.9million 15.0% 14.3% 5.1%3.8%2.9%
  • 45. 2004 189.0million 16.4% 14.6% 5.5%3.8%3.4%
  • 46. 2005 218.5million 16.8% 14.5% 6.9%4.6%3.8%
  • 47. 2006 239.4million 15.9% 15.9% 7.0% 5.8%3.8%
  • 48. 2007 271.2million 18.2% 14.3% 8.9% 7.4%4.0%
  • 49. 2008 302.2million 18.4% 14.3% 11.1% 7.2%4.5%
  • 50. 2009 305.9million 19.3% 13.0% 12.2% 8.1%5.1%
  • 51. 2010 325million 17.9% 12.9% 12.0% 9.7%5.4%
  • 52. PC%전쟁의%중요변수 HP의$PC사업부$분사 iPad의$급속한$PC$시장잠식 Post$PC$Issue
  • 53. 시장규모%비교 (2010년기준) PC Network DB Server Storage$1,400억 $600 $600 $400 $212
  • 54. PC%전쟁요약 ✓"96년부터"4배성장 ✓"1400억"달러"규모 ✓"가장"많은"경쟁자포진 ✓"거인들의"이탈 ✓"Post"PC"이슈
  • 55. $1,260 $999 $699 $652 $615 $432 $356 $292 $170
  • 56. $1,260 $999 $432 $356 $170$1,400억 $600 $600 $400 $212 PC Network DB Server Storage
  • 57. $1,260 $999 $432 $356 $170$1,400억 $600 $600 $400 $212 PC Network DB Server Storage
  • 58. $1,260 $999 $432 $356 $170$1,400억 $600 $600 $400 $212 PC Network DB Server Storage
  • 59. $1,260 $999 $432 $356 $170$1,400억 $600 $600 $400 $212 PC Network DB Server Storage
  • 60. $1,260 $999 $432 $356 $170$1,400억 $600 $600 $400 $212 PC Network DB Server Storage
  • 61. $1,260 $999 $432 $356 $170$1,400억 $600 $600 $400 $212 PC Network DB Server Storage
  • 62. Enterprise War HardwareService Software
  • 63. ConsumeEnterprise War War
  • 64. ConsumeEnterprise War War
  • 65. ConsumeEnterprise War War
  • 66. !Chapter!4.!제국의!형성
  • 67. 1984 ~1997 확실한%두개의%무기Windows MS Office
  • 68. OS%전쟁%:일방적%학살 Win%NT 9.2% 압도적점유율 89 MS-DOS 10.1% Win95 % 69.7% (1997년%기준)
  • 69. Word%전쟁%:%비열한전투(%) Win 3.0 Win 95100755025 0 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 WordPerfect Word for DOS Word for Win WP for Win
  • 70. Excel%전쟁%:%비열한전투%2 Win 3.0 Win 95806040200 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 Lotus 1-2-3 Quattro Excel
  • 71. Market Share Windows 89% Office 94%
  • 72. 1997 1,000 800 600 400$119 200
  • 73. 1997 1,000 800 others 600 9% 400$119 Windows 200 42% 49% Office
  • 74. 새로운%컴퓨팅%이데올로기Server% ClientBased!Computing Server%
  • 75. Server% Based!ComputingApp!:!OData!:!O Server$ Client$
  • 76. Client/Server%App!:!O Data!:!OData!:!O Client$ Server$
  • 77. 남은숙제와%새로운전쟁✓$Windows/Office$주도권✓$반독점소송✓$브라우저$전쟁$vs$Netscape✓$새로운$수익원$:$서버부문✓$네트워크$컴퓨팅$진압$
  • 78. 이$즈음$재등장한$인물이$있었으니...$
  • 79. Steve Jobs
  • 80. 총체적%난국뉴튼의"실패,"라이센싱"정책 Win VS
  • 81. !Chapter!5.!권토중래
  • 82. 1998iMac으로%기적적%생환
  • 83. (단위:억달러) Software$71 20% Portable Desktop 17% 64%1997 9% 42% 49% Windows$119 Office
  • 84. (단위:억달러) Software$71 $59 18% Portable Desktop 15% 66%1997 1998 11% 40% 48% Windows$119 $153 Office
  • 85. (단위:억달러) Software$71 $59 $61 17% Portable 14% Desktop 69%1997 1998 1999 9% 45% 46% Windows$119 $153 $197 Office
  • 86. Software 14%$71 $59 $61 $79 Portable Desktop 22% 64%1997 1998 1999 2000 (단위:억달러) Server 7% Windows 18% 33%$119 $153 $197 $229 41% Office
  • 87. 2001iMac%제외하곤%신통찮은%성적
  • 88. Software 18%$71 $59 $61 $79 $53 Desktop 52% 30% Portable1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 (단위:억달러) Server 8% Windows 20% 33%$119 $153 $197 $229 $252 39% Office
  • 89. 2001중대한%전환점
  • 90. 2001 두$대의$전함을$더$띄우다 WindowsOffice
  • 91. 2001 두$대의$전함을$더$띄우다 Windows DNA Server Windows 2000 Windows SQL Server Exchange Server Visual StudioOffice X-Box
  • 92. Browser$전쟁$승리85%%점유율 Windows$XP역대%최고%버전
  • 93. iPod 2001 iTunes Mac$OS$X ‘Cheetah’
  • 94. Software 18%$71 $59 $61 $79 $53 Desktop 52% 30% Portable1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 (단위:억달러) Server 8% Windows 20% 33%$119 $153 $197 $229 $252 39% Office
  • 95. Software 18%$79 $53 Desktop 52% 30% Portable000 2001 (단위:억달러) Server 8% Windows 20% 33%$229 $252 39% Office
  • 96. $79 $53000 2001 (단위:억달러)$229 $252
  • 97. iPod 21%$79 $53 $57 Desktop 49% 30% Portable000 2001 2002 (단위:억달러) X-Box 13% Windows Server 34% 19%$229 $252 $283 34% Office
  • 98. Consumer Market 주변기기 PC War Software
  • 99. Consumer Market 주변기기 PC War Software MP3 Player의외의%행보 (Audio)
  • 100. 그러나%완벽히%맞아%떨어진%작전
  • 101. 2002 :%57억불 iPod 21% .Mac 49%MobileMe의$전신 30% Desktop Portable
  • 102. 2003 :%62억불 Music Hardware 1%Music$Store iPod 11% 6% S/W 10% 39%Safari Desktop 33%iLife Portable
  • 103. 반격의%움직임...
  • 104. 2004 :%82억불 Hardware Music 3% 11% 29% iPod 16% Desktop 10% 31% S/W Portable
  • 105. H10
  • 106. iPod%nano
  • 107. 2005 :%139억불 Hardware Music 8% 6% DesktopiPod%nano 25% iPod 33% 20% Portable 8% S/W
  • 108. 2005 :%139억불 Hardware Music 8% 6% DesktopiWorks 25% iPod 33% 20% Portable 8% S/W
  • 109. 2006 :%193억불 HardwareIntel$Mac 6% Music DesktopMacbook 10% 17% iPod 21% Portable 40% 7% S/W
  • 110. ZuneWindows mobile
  • 111. 2007iPhoneiPod touch
  • 112. 2007IT역사의%큰%획을%그은%해
  • 113. Portable AppleTV iPhone Pro App iWork Safari iLife Desktop Mac App Store App Store iPad iPod iOS Calendar Mac OS MovieGameCenter Mail Drama Book Music Podcast Cloud Photo Contacts
  • 114. Software Hardware OSService Contents
  • 115. Software Hardware OSService Contents
  • 116. 애플%생태계 Software OS Service 개발자Contents Hardware 사용자 공급자
  • 117. 이데올로기Client Server App Data Data App Data WEB
  • 118. 이데올로기,%생태계%전쟁으로%몰고감
  • 119. 2007 :%240억불 Hardware Music 5% iPhone 10% Desktop 1% 17% iPod 26% 35% Portable 6% S/W
  • 120. 2008 :%374억불 Hardware Music 5% Desktop 9% 15% iPhone 18% 23% Portable iPod 24% 6% S/W
  • 121. 2009 :%429억불 Hardware Music 3% Desktop 9% 10% iPhone 22% Portable 30% 6% 19% S/W iPod S/W
  • 122. 2010 :%652억불 Hardware Music 8% Desktop iPad 3% 10% 8% Portable 17% 4% iPhone S/W 39% 13% iPod S/W
  • 123. 2011 :%1,003억불 Desktop 17% 6% Portable Hardware iPad 13% 2% Music 6% S/W 3% 8% iPod iPhone 45% S/W
  • 124. !Chapter!6.!거대한!계획
  • 125. 태생적으로%%WEB%원리주의자
  • 126. 1998
  • 127. 1998 2002
  • 128. 1998 2002 매출"4억$ "57억$ "283억$
  • 129. 1998
  • 130. 1998 2003 Ad"Sense 수익모델"확보
  • 131. 주식공모 천문학적인" 자금조달1998 2003 2004 Ad"Sense 수익모델"확보
  • 132. picasa bloger1998 2004
  • 133. picasa bloger1998 2005 2004 Maps
  • 134. Gmail Calendar picasa Youtube bloger1998 2005 2004 2006 Maps
  • 135. Gmail Calendar picasa Youtube bloger1998 2005 2007 2004 2006 Maps Docs doubleclick
  • 136. 1998 2007 2009 2008
  • 137. 이데올로기Client Server App Data Data App Data WEB
  • 138. 그러나$안드로이드,애플의$모델을$따라가다$
  • 139. 이데올로기%혼란Client Server App Data Data App Data
  • 140. ~2003
  • 141. ~2007
  • 142. ~2009
  • 143. ~2011
  • 144. $Chapter$7.$최후의$승리자는?
  • 145. 1997$~$2010•엔터프라이즈$시장에$깊은$뿌리•제품$다양성$확보$2➔4개$부문•5배$성장$(119억$$➔$624억$)•Music,$Mobile$실패로$밀리는$양상•노림수$:$Windows$8
  • 146. 1997$~$2010•생태계의$띠$완성단계$:$시너지•주체$못할$성장$(70억$$➔$652억$)•iCloud$성공여부가$변수•추가$노림수$:$$Apple$TV
  • 147. 1997$~$2010•막강한$컨텐츠와$서비스$역량•All$Cloud$완성시$All$Kill까지$가능•수익모델$확보$(0$$➔$293억$)•떠나는$연합군$:$Motolora$인수여파•Adroid,$Chrome$OS$연계$?
  • 148. 경쟁의%자격OS H/W App 서비스 컨텐츠
  • 149. 경쟁의%자격OS H/W App 서비스 컨텐츠
  • 150. 경쟁의%자격OS H/W App 서비스 컨텐츠
  • 151. 경쟁의%자격OS H/W App 서비스 컨텐츠
  • 152. 경쟁의%자격OS H/W App 서비스 컨텐츠
  • 153. 경쟁의%자격OS H/W App 서비스 컨텐츠
  • 154. •확실한$컨텐츠•저가형$타블렛$or$킨들•Cloud$Service$Platform
  • 155. 그럼%나머지%회사들은?
  • 156. 전쟁의%양상Client$Based Server$Based 제2전역 제1전역
  • 157. 제%1%전역$Client$와$Server$양$진영의$ 이데올로기$전쟁 구글$입장에서$ 바라본$승리의$요건
  • 158. 목표$:$값싸게$대량보급$하여$구글을$쉽게$이용하게$하는$것
  • 159. 대량보급의$전제조건Cloud+WEB%App저사양,$최소한의$스토리지최소$App과$Chrome$탑재
  • 160. 그러기$위해선...무제한$데이타$요금제
  • 161. 무료$Wi-Fi$구축에$지대한$관심
  • 162. 쉽.지.않.은.문.제
  • 163. 유저경험의%부조화 Desktop: Mobile: WEB$Base App$BaseChroms OS Adroid
  • 164. HP로부터의%교훈안드로이드$너무$비싸 TouchPad $99
  • 165. WEB%App의%완성도 아직$갈길이$남았다 Office$대항마 touch$I/F$고려 차세대$WEB기술
  • 166. 모토롤라%인수여파우군이$떠나고$있다 대량보급이$필요한$시점, 우군$상실은$뼈아픔
  • 167. 종합평가 본격"전쟁에"나서기"약간"이른"느낌B- •높은$안드로이드$가격 •유저경험$부조화 •App$완성도 •모토롤라$인수여파
  • 168. 전쟁의%양상Client$Based Server$Based 제2전역 제1전역
  • 169. 또%다른%경쟁Client$Based
  • 170. 애플의%MS공략법Core에%대한%공세Office$+$Windows Microsoft의$근본을$흔드는$것$
  • 171. 왜%MS에%밀렸었나%? “소프트웨어가$없어” “호환성이$문제야”
  • 172. 지금은%상황이%다름이제$앱은$애플의$최대강점호환성$문제,$거의$사라짐
  • 173. 애플의%최대숙제App$Store의$앱과$개발자들을 Mac$OS내로$끌어들이는$것
  • 174. Keynote$:iPhone,"iPad,"Mac""기기에"특화된"버전으로"상호작용
  • 175. 애플의%소프트웨어%라인업iLifeiWorks
  • 176. iPad%+%iWorks iPad$:$PC$성장세에$영향iPad iWork$:$Office에$필적 Numbers의"성장이"필수
  • 177. 종합평가 3사중"가장"유리한"위치A •풍부한$App •App의$Mac$OS$유입 •iWorks
  • 178. 또%다른%경쟁Client$Based
  • 179. 두%가지%고민✓%Apple%보다%앞서%OS통합✓%Hardware를%가져야%하나?
  • 180. Windows%8
  • 181. ✓$Hardware를$가져야$하나? 인수합병시$구글처럼 우군이탈$가능성
  • 182. 종합평가 사용할"수"있는"카드가"많지"않음B •풍부한$App •App의$Mac$OS$유입 •iWorks
  • 183. 최종%승리의%가능성A B B-
  • 184. 만약%패배한다면 iOS가"밀린다면"1997년" 최초"시작모드로"돌아갈"것 Windows+Office"결계가" 깨진다해도"오래"버틸듯 검색과"온라인"서비스"부문 만으로"물러나"앉을"것
  • 185. 소비자가%바라는%것 ‘3자%균형’ ✓"경쟁이"발전을"촉발 ✓"취향에"따라"다양한"선택" Win"8로"개성을" Pure"SVC의"모습잡스나"건강하길 유지하며"버텨줄것 으로"돌아가길
  • 186. IT Warfare 의"IT삼국지 www.demitrio.com