DSD-NL 2014 - iMOD Symposium - 10. iMOD Gebruikersdag - Bodemdaling, Gilles Erkens, Deltares

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  • 1. Bodemdaling Gilles Erkens & de taskforce bodemdaling
  • 2. Land subsidence: why bother? 17 juni 2014
  • 3. 17 juni 2014 What causes the land to subside? Natural causes (geological processes):  Loading of the earth’s crust by ice sheets, sediment (delta’s), the ocean/sea  Compaction of older sediments after sedimentation Anthropogenic causes (human-induced processes):  Oil/gas extraction (usually relatively deep)  Groundwater extraction (usually moderately deep)  Drainage of soils  oxidation of peat, soil compaction  Loading of buildings, structures Why discriminating between human-induced and natural processes?  Magnitude  Cooping strategy (mitigation versus adaptation) 9 m land subsidence between 1925-1977 (52 years) ~ 17.3 cm/y
  • 4. Impacts of land subsidence 17 juni 2014 1) Flooding 2) Damage to structures
  • 5. Media Aandacht!
  • 6. Problematiek: GW onttrekking Groundwater extraction leads to subsidence Subsidence map of Jakarta 1974-2010: -4,1 meter -2,1 meter -1,4 meter -0,7 meter -0.25 meter Extensometer at Jalan Tongkol 4,5 cm 1997 2007 3 cm 2009 2010 41 cmJan84 Jan86 Jan88 Jan90 Jan92 Jan94 Jan96 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 Date Pz.Head(m) d:JakartaMaathuis_dataCKG-PDK2.xls Jan84 Jan86 Jan88 Jan90 Jan92 Jan94 Jan96 -40 -38 -36 -34 -32 -30 Date Pz.Head(m) d:JakartaMaathuis_dataCKG-PDK3.xls Jan84 Jan86 Jan88 Jan90 Jan92 Jan94 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 Date Pz.Head(m) d:JakartaMaathuis_dataCKG-PDK4.xls Subsiding cities: • Jakarta • HCMC • Bangkok • Manila • Dhaka • New Orleans • Singapore • Hanoi • Richmond • Shanghai • Venice • Lorca • Mexico City • and many more
  • 7. Land subsidence vs absolute sea-level rise 17 juni 2014
  • 8. The sinking cities assessment 17 juni 2014 1. How much subsidence is there? 2. What is causing subsidence? A quick subsidence assessment for mega-cities: Jakarta, Ho-Chi-Minh City, Dhaka, New Orleans, Bangkok 3. How much subsidence is predicted? 4. What impact has subsidence? 5. Who is responsible? 6. What are solutions? The assessment aimed to: • Get insight in the processes • To obtain a research agenda for this topic • To list best practice cases for others to learn NEW ORLEANS JAKARTA TOKYO DHAKA HCMC BANGKOK
  • 9. De bijdrage van Deltares 17 juni 2014 We willen: - De oorzaak begrijpen - Een voorspelling kunnen maken - Oplossingen kunnen aandragen -4,1 meter -1,4 meter -2,1 meter -0,7 meter -0.25 meter -4,1 meter -2,1 meter -1,4 meter -0,7 meter -0.25 meter New Orleans, USA Jakarta, Indonesia
  • 10. Methodologie: Integratie van monitoring en modellering Geological model of the subsurface Geomechanical modelling Forecasted ground-motion Ground-motion monitoring data Validation&Improvement Comparison & inverse modelling Risk analysis & Decision making Specific requirements to satellite data Geological model of the subsurface Geomechanical modelling Forecasted ground-motion Ground-motion monitoring data Validation&Improvement Comparison & inverse modelling Risk analysis & Decision making Specific requirements to satellite data Geo(hydro)logical modelling iMOD SUB-CR
  • 11. Meerwaarde van iMOD • Directe koppeling met het grondwatermodel • Dezelfde schematisatie van de ondergrond, • Snel doorrekenen van effect grondwaterstandsverlagingen, • Inbrengen van grondwaterpompen • Goed medium om ondergronddata te visualiseren • Mogelijkheden tot 3D bekijken data • Mogelijkheden tot het tekenen van profielen
  • 12. Geologisch + geohydrologisch model Droombeeld 17 juni 2014 Voorbeeld Ho Chi Minh City, Ngo Duc Chan 2008 Input View Layers 8. Aquifer 1 7. Aquitard 1 6. Aquifer 2 5. Aquitard 2 4. Aquifer 3 3. Aquitard 3 2. Aquifer 4 1. Aquitard 4 0.000 10.000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 2 1 -4 -59 -69 -119 -129 -169 -179 -249 1 -4 -59 -69 -119 -129 -169 -179 -249 Level (m) Realiteit
  • 13. Is gekoppelde modellering mogelijk? 2000: USGS Modflow SUB package 2005: USGS Modflow SUB-WT 2012: Deltares SUB-CR 2013: Deltares iMOD SUB-CR •Interbeds: lenzen van lutumhoudende fijnzandige grondlagen in aquifers •Aquitards: uitgestrekte lutumhoudende fijnzandige geologische afzettingen.
  • 14. Kenmerken van het SUB-CR model –Is een gekoppeld bodemdaling- grondwatermodel (geen fysisch ondergrondmodel) –Maakt betere bodemdalingvoorspellingen door meenemen van kruip (secondary settlement) Gekoppeld aan iMOD –3D-berekeningen –Werkt op grote schaal (>1 km2): megasteden, hele delta’s
  • 15. Resultaten uit Jakarta
  • 16. Evaluatie bodemdaling voor scenario’s onttrekkingen 2) Extrapolatie huidige situatie 3) Herstel naar situatie 1995 Z2100 = - 3.88 m Z2100 = - 3.11 m 1) Toenemende verlaging 1m/jr 4) Snel herstel situatie 1995 Z2100 = - 5.69 m Z2100 = - 2.77 m 17 juni 2014 Vertical 1 (X = 0.000 m; Z = 0.000 m) Method = NEN - Bjerrum with Terzaghi (Linear strain) Fit factors used Coefficient of determination = 0.902 Depth = 1.000 [m] Settlement after 49275 days = 3.879 [m] 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 4.000000 3.000000 2.000000 1.000000 0.000000 Settlement[m] Measurement 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 Time [days] -0.000010 -0.000005 0.000000 0.000005Loading[kPa] 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Year Time (days) Vertical 1 (X = 0.000 m; Z = 0.000 m) Method = NEN - Bjerrum with Terzaghi (Linear strain) Fit factors used Coefficient of determination = 0.902 Depth = 1.000 [m] Settlement after 49275 days = 3.879 [m] 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 4.000000 3.000000 2.000000 1.000000 0.000000 Settlement[m] Measurement 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 Time [days] -0.000010 -0.000005 0.000000 0.000005Loading[kPa] 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Year Time (days) 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Time-History Vertical 1 (X = 0.000 m; Z = 0.000 m) Method = NEN - Bjerrum with Terzaghi (Linear strain) Depth = 1.000 [m] Settlement after 49275 days = 5.693 [m] 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 4.000000 2.000000 0.000000 Settlement[m] 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 Time [days] -0.000010 -0.000005 0.000000 0.000005 0.000010 Loading[kPa] Year Time (days) 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Time-History Vertical 1 (X = 0.000 m; Z = 0.000 m) Method = NEN - Bjerrum with Terzaghi (Linear strain) Depth = 1.000 [m] Settlement after 49275 days = 5.693 [m] 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 4.000000 2.000000 0.000000 Settlement[m] 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 Time [days] -0.000010 -0.000005 0.000000 0.000005 0.000010 Loading[kPa] Year Time (days) MSettle7.3:jwrmsFit2recover.sli <NotRegistered> <NotRegistered><NotRegistered> Phone<NotRegistered> Fax<NotRegistered> date Registered> Registered>18/03/2011 Annex Vertical 1 (X = 0.000 m; Z = 0.000 m) Method = NEN - Bjerrum w ith Terzaghi (Linear strain) Depth = 1.000 [m] Settlement after 49275 days = 3.111 [m] 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 4.000000 3.000000 2.000000 1.000000 0.000000 Settlement[m] 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 Time [days] -0.000010 -0.000005 0.000000 0.000005 Loading[kPa] MSettle7.3:jwrmsFit2recover.sli <NotRegistered> <NotRegistered><NotRegistered> Phone<NotRegistered> Fax<NotRegistered> date <NotRegistered> <NotRegistered>18/03/2011 Annex Time-History Vertical 1 (X = 0.000 m; Z = 0.000 m) Method = NEN - Bjerrum w ith Terzaghi (Linear strain) Depth = 1.000 [m] Settlement after 49275 days = 2.765 [m] 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 4.000000 3.000000 2.000000 1.000000 0.000000 Settlement[m] 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 Time [days] -0.000010 -0.000005 0.000000 0.000005 0.000010 Loading[kPa]
  • 17. Toekomstige ontwikkelingen iMOD SUB-CR  Inzetten in nieuwe case studie gebieden: New Orleans, Jakarta  Gebruik voor opbouw van ondergrondmodellen en informatiesystemen van delta steden  Gebruikmaken van bestaande Modflow-modellen voor floodrisk studies  Koppeling met beleidsbeslissingsmodellen en kostenmodules uit het schade-onderzoek 17 juni 2014
  • 18. 4D: Jurong Island 17 juni 2014
  • 19. Thank you