TMT Predictions 2014
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TMT Predictions 2014

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Retrouvez quelques tendances clés issues de l'étude mondiale des prédictions 2014 sur le secteur des Technologies, Médias et Télécommunications. ...

Retrouvez quelques tendances clés issues de l'étude mondiale des prédictions 2014 sur le secteur des Technologies, Médias et Télécommunications.
Accédez à l'étude : http://bitly.com/1l1ePhI

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TMT Predictions 2014 TMT Predictions 2014 Presentation Transcript

  • TMT Predictions 2014 Advance. Intelligence.
  • TMT Predictions was first published in 2001 1 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
  • TMT Predictions methodology 8,000 specialists in TMT, tax, audit, risk, corporate finance and consulting Experts at industry analysts and financial institutions Deloitte TMT Research Macroeconomic research Projects/discussio ns with industry bodies Discussions with clients around the world 2 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities. View slide
  • Special thanks to Ipsos Reid! Our exclusive partner and sponsor of Canadian public opinion data! Steve Levy 3 These questions were captured as part of the Ipsos Reid Online Omnibus – The method of data collection was online and the sample source was the Ipsos iSay panel – A total of 1,032 interviews were conducted, 18+ – Data is nationally representative of the Canadian Population (and the Mary Beth Barbour survey was administered in English and French) – The study was in field between December 5th and 9th, 2013 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities. View slide
  • >250 end notes + >400 references + 1000s x conversations + 10,000s survey responses = P 13. Endnotes 4 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
  • TMT Predictions 2013 Report card
  • 2013 Technology Predictions report card The PC is not dead – It’s about usage not units Bring your own computer – A tale of two interpretations P@$$1234 – The end of strong password-only security Enterprise Social Networks – Another tool, but not yet a panacea Crowdfunding portals will raise $3 billion in the year ahead The button stays beautiful Legend Didn’t come true as we predicted 6 Came true, but less than we predicted. At least so far Came true exactly as much as we predicted © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
  • 7 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
  • 8 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
  • 2013 Media Predictions report card 4K kicks off Dual video screening readies for prime time Connected TV – Hits and misses Over-the-top may lift legacy broadcasters and distributors more than pure plays The reality of “cord cutting” in North America Legend Didn’t come true as we predicted 9 Came true, but less than we predicted. At least so far Came true exactly as much as we predicted © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
  • 2013 Telecom Predictions report card A strong year for LTE adoption Smartphones ship a billion but usage becomes simpler Not all mobile advertising is created equal All-you-can-app Wireless spectrum “rush hour” means more traffic jams Legend Didn’t come true as we predicted 10 Came true, but less than we predicted. At least so far Came true exactly as much as we predicted © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
  • Total prediction accuracy 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2008 11 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
  • No Theme! No Theme! No Theme! No Theme!
  • Sales Mass market 20% of total sales Niche market 80% of total sales The long tail: Less loved items and products The body: Bestsellers and blockbusters Number of items
  • Une grande niche 14 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
  • 15 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
  • 16 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
  • 17 Smartglasses © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
  • You know they are transparent, low-resolution, work only with a smartphone, cost ~$500, and may violate various laws, right? 18 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
  • Smartglasses for smartworkers 19 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
  • Is it time for smartwatches? 20 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
  • We have had the decade of the device 21 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
  • The decade of the device $900 $800 $700 Billions $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 PCs 22 Smartphones Gaming consoles TVs 18E 17E 16E 15E 14E 13P 12A 11A 10A 09A 08A 07A 06A 05A 04A 03A 02A 01A 00A 99A $0 Tablets © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
  • Smartphone replacement cycles are getting longer Handset replacement cycle in months 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013e 2014e Source: US data, Recon Analytics, BI Intelligence 23 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
  • 5 year trailing CAGR 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 03A 04A 05A 06A 07A 08A 09A 10A 11A 12A 13P 14E 15E 16E 17E 18E 24 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
  • Less money for hardware means more money for… 25 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
  • U.S. consumer electronic sales as a percent of global sales of PCs, smartphones, tablets, TVs and game consoles 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2004 26 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013P 2014E © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
  • Global smartphone sales Phablets will be 25% of the global smartphone market of 1.2 billion devices. At an ASP of $417, that’s $125 billion in sales. 5.0 - 6.9 inches - phablets <5.0 inches 27 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
  • Phablet ownership breakdown 6.0” to 6.9” 5.1” to 5.9” 100% 90% 5.0” to 5.1” 100% 80% 90% 70% 80% 100% 60% 90% 70% 50% 80% 70% 60% 67% 40% 50% 60% 50% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 30% 40% 23% 20% 10% 10% 10% 10% 28 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
  • “only” 25% 29 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
  • After seeing TMT Predictions, how likely are you to spend more money with Deloitte? (normal distribution) 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Very likely 30 Somewhat likely Neither likely nor unlikely Somewhat unlikely Very unlikely © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
  • Thinking about your next mobile device, how likely are you to purchase a phablet? (55+ only, n=351) 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Very likely 31 Somewhat likely Neither likely nor unlikely Somewhat unlikely I'd rather be attacked by weasels (fouines) © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
  • Phablet intent to purchase as next mobile device 70% Likely (T2B) Very Unlikely (BB) 60% 50% 46% 40% 30% 20% 16% Overall 10% (n=1,032) 0% 18-34 n=184 32 35-54 n=230 55+ n=129 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
  • Phablet intent to purchase as next mobile device (cont’d) 60% Likely (T2B) Unlikely (BB) 50% 46% 40% 30% 20% 16% Overall 10% (n=1,032) 0% <HS n=72 33 HS Post Sec n=245 n=476 Univ Grad n=239 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
  • Remember the mass-niche? $900 $800 $700 Billions $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 PCs 34 Smartphones Gaming consoles TVs Tablets © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities. 18E 17E 16E 15E 14E 13P 12A 11A 10A 09A 08A 07A 06A 05A 04A 03A 02A 01A 00A 99A $0
  • APEJ portable PC, tablet and phablet shipments, 2011 Q4-2013Q2 Unit Shipments 24 M 21 M 18 M 15 M 12 M 9M 6M 3M 0M 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 Portable PC 35 3Q12 Tablet 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 Phablet © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
  • 36 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
  • Proportion of phablet owners having a smaller smartphone too Singapore South Korea Spain Japan UK United States Netherlands France Germany 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Source: Deloitte Global Mobile Consumer Survey, Developed countries, May-June 2013 Base: All Smartphone owners: 16, 378, Smartphone owners 12,313, Large smartphone owners 8,269 37 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
  • 38 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
  • 39 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
  • 40 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
  • Never downloaded even one app (Developed Countries) 40% 29% 30% 22% 16% 20% 8% 7% 18-24 10% 25-34 11% 0% 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ IM usage (Developed Countries) 60% 56% 54% 45% 45% 39% 32% 25% 30% 15% 0% 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Social Networking (Developed Countries) − Smartphone owners 80% 75% 66% 60% 51% 44% 35% 40% 28% 20% 0% 18-24 41 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
  • 42 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
  • Light space suit, appropriate for +130º C temperatures 43 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
  • 44 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
  • Hours of traditional TV watched per week by all Canadians aged 2+ 30 27,6 26,7 27,3 2012/13 2013/14 25 20 15 10 5 0 2011/12 45 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
  • 0–20% Quintile – average hours per week 8 7,5 7,6 7,5 7,6 7,1 Average Hours per Week 7 7,1 6,9 6,8 7,1 7,0 6,6 6 Adjusted to compare to PPM data 5,8 5,9 5 4,9 4 4,1 3,8 3 3,6 4,6 4,3 3,9 3,4 3,1 2 1 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Total TV Eng (0-20%) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013A 2014E Total TV French (0-20%) Source: BBM Canada, P2+, Each year defined by 4 November weeks, M-Su 2a-2a *PPMs introduced for Total TV Eng in 2009 46 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
  • 80–100% Quintile – average hours per week 65 63 62,3 Average Hours per Week 61 59 60,6 58,1 57,1 57 54,9 56,7 57,0 54,5 53,9 55,2 62,0 58,0 59,3 52,1 53 Adjusted to compare to PPM data 51 49 60,3 55,9 56,1 62,0 61,1 55,9 55 62,5 50,9 47 45 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Total TV Eng (80-100%) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013A 2014E Total TV French (80-100%) Source: BBM Canada, P2+, Each year defined by 4 November weeks, M-Su 2a-2a *PPMs introduced for Total TV Eng in 2009 47 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
  • The reality Number of Canadian homes that subscribe to any of cable, telco or satellite pay TV service (millions) 14 12 11,8 11,8 11,8 10 10,873 homes cut the cord as of September 30, 2013 8 6 4 2 0 2012 48 2013 2014 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
  • Canadians who are currently subscribing to video subscription service (i.e. Netflix) or are in first free month 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% BC 49 AB SK/MB ONT PQ ATL © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
  • Credit: Keytrends Report 2014, @CMF_Trends 50 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
  • US TV viewing in homes with internet Q1 2011 (weekly hours) Q1 2013 (weekly hours) Year over year change TV 1 69.8 75.1 +8% TV 2 39.2 38.6 -2% TV 3 26.0 24.2 -10% TV 4 17.2 13.8 -19% TV 5 6.8 4.2 -38% Total 52 0% © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
  • 53 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
  • The reality Number of Canadian homes that subscribe to any of cable, telco or satellite pay TV service (millions) 14 12 11,8 11,8 11,8 10 10,873 homes cut the cord as of September 30, 2013 8 6 4 2 0 2012 54 2013 2014 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
  • We’re not cutting TV cords, we’re stacking them Canadian households with at least one monthly pay TV subscription service (millions) 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2011 One sub 55 2014 Two subs Two plus © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
  • Canadians who currently subscribe to a video subscription service (i.e. Netflix) or are in the free first month 40% 35% 30% 25% 19% 20% Overall 15% (n=1,032) 10% 5% 0% 18-34 n=244 56 35-54 n=437 55+ n=351 Male n=454 Female n=578 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
  • 57 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
  • Video subscription services (i.e. Netflix) Current Subs/First Month 30% Former Subs 25% 19% 20% Overall 15% (n=1,032) 10% 7% 5% 0% <HS n=72 58 HS n=245 Post Sec n=476 Univ Grad n=239 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
  • 59 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
  • 60 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
  • 61 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
  • 62 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
  • 63 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
  • 64 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
  • Aussi en France! 65 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
  • 66 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
  • 67 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
  • Only completions count! Global tertiary courses completed 2014 100 million FTEs @ ten courses per year Traditional Education 68 MOOCs © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
  • Deep dive on U.S. student loans, cost of education, and income 69 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
  • “The perfect storm” Technology and networks have changed Pedagogy has changed Push vs. pull has changed (Learn what you want, when you want) Skills half life and retraining have changed Data and analytics has changed…to real time and granular Government ability to pay has changed 70 Student ability to pay has changed Cross-subsidization will need to change! © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
  • TMT Predictions tailored events Duncan Stewart can deliver a presentation for your office/industry. • Email Duncan: dunstewart@deloitte.ca • Follow me on Twitter: @dunstewart • Connect on LinkedIn • Subscribe to me on Facebook