Intergrated Models U N C C


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presentation by Dr. Steve French, Jan 18 2011

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  • Intergrated Models U N C C

    1. 1. Presentation to<br />Department of Geography and Earth Sciences<br />University of North Carolina-Charlotte<br />January 21, 2011<br />Integrating Urban Models with Infrastructure and Environmental Systems<br />Steven P. French, Ph.D., FAICPAssociate Dean for ResearchProfessor of City and Regional PlanningDirector of Center for Geographic Information SystemsCollege of ArchitectureGeorgia Institute of TechnologyAtlanta, GA 30332-0695<br />
    2. 2. Background<br />Human population and environmental impact are increasing exponentially<br />
    3. 3. GreatAcceleration:HumanActivities<br /><ul><li>Steffen, W.; Sanderson, A.; Tyson, P. D., et al. Global Change and the Earth Systems: A Planet Under Pressure; Springer-Verlag: Heidelberg, Germany, 2005</li></li></ul><li>EnvironmentalandEcologicalConsequences<br /><ul><li>Steffen, W.; Sanderson, A.; Tyson, P. D., et al. Global Change and the Earth Systems: A Planet Under Pressure; Springer-Verlag: Heidelberg, Germany, 2005</li></li></ul><li>Urban Metabolism<br />All units are tons per day for a city of 1 million residents. Rectangle size is proportional to the mass. Suspended Solids are in Sewage. (Decker et al.)<br />
    4. 4. Problem<br />To design the anthrosphere to exist within the means of nature. That is, to use amount of resources that nature provides and generate waste nature can assimilate without overwhelming natural systems.<br />John Crittenden, 2010<br />
    5. 5. 7<br />Urbanization<br /><ul><li> This is the first urban century
    6. 6. A majority of the world’s population lives in cities
    7. 7. Human impact on the environment is largely mediated through urban infrastructure systems
    8. 8. The amount of urban infrastructure worldwide will double in the next 35 years</li></li></ul><li>Premise<br />Considering infrastructure systems holistically creates a wider and more sustainable set of possible solutions than designing each system separately.<br />
    9. 9. Atlantic Steel becomes Atlantic Station<br />Atlantic Steel<br />138 acre steel mill <br />Founded in late1800s<br />Closed in 1990s<br /> (Photo Courtesy of EPA)<br />
    10. 10. Atlantic Steel becomes Atlantic Station<br />1997<br />Abandoned Brownfield <br />Adjacent to Midtown Atlanta<br />No access to surrounding development<br />
    11. 11. Atlantic Steel becomes Atlantic Station<br />1997<br />Jacoby proposes redevelopment<br />Atlanta in nonconformity under Clean Air Act<br />Moratorium on Federal highway spending<br />
    12. 12. Atlantic Steel becomes Atlantic Station<br />Comparative Analysis<br />Analysis of travel demand and air pollution in four locations<br />Intown location performed best<br />EPA Project XL to allow<br />17th Street bridge<br />Source: <br /> Transportation and Environmental Analysis of the Atlantic Steel Development Proposal, EPA (1999) <br />( <br />
    13. 13. Atlantic Steel becomes Atlantic Station<br />Today<br />17th Street Bridge built<br />Mixed Use Development<br />30,000 employees,10,000 residents<br />12 acres of public space<br />Less traffic and air pollution<br />Cleaned up brownfield site<br />Improved tax base<br />
    14. 14. Vancouver Stormwater<br />Vancouver, BC had a combined sewer-stormwater system. Estimated cost to separate - $4B<br />Rather than separating pipes, the city daylighted the stormwater system and created open space<br />Open space increased the attractiveness of adjacent properties<br />Created an increase of $400M income in increased tax revenue due to increase property values<br />
    15. 15. Biofuels and Green House Gas<br />Current biofuels policies illustrate how ignoring a systems approach when dealing with complex systems produce unintended consequences-<br /><ul><li>Food price spikes
    16. 16. Increased land is converted to agricultural production
    17. 17. Increased fertilizer use
    18. 18. Increase in N2O from fertilizers</li></ul>N2O is 300 times more potent than CO2 <br />as a GHG and lasts longer<br />
    19. 19. Suboptimal Solutions<br />It appears that optimizing individual infrastructure systems produces suboptimal solutions at the metropolitan level and above.<br />
    20. 20. Current Situation<br />Infrastructure systems are currently designed and operated as separate stovepipes.<br />Solutions typically seek to optimize performance within a single system.<br />Complex interactions among systems are largely ignored.<br />Most models do not consider long term sustainability<br />
    21. 21. Metamodel Approach<br />To develop an integrated suite of models that can estimate the interaction among infrastructure systems and their relationship with the natural environment and social and economic systems.<br />A Metamodelwill be designed to analyze alternative development scenarios at the regional scale, to evaluate infrastructure investments and to analyze proposed development projects. <br />This Metamodel will enable decision makers to envision and create more sustainable and resilient infrastructure solutions.<br />
    22. 22. MetamodelDesign <br />Exogenous social and economic systems determine the amount and type of population and employment.<br />The urban growth model estimates the future amount and locations of population, employment, and land uses.<br />This produces the demand for services from the infrastructure system models by time and location.<br />The infrastructure models estimate the resources required and the waste generated to meet the service demands of the urban area using various technologies.<br />
    23. 23. Metamodel Development <br />We believe that the best way to integrate urban infrastructure and environmental models is a loosely coupled set of domain specific models to create an overall systems model<br /><ul><li>Must define key model interactions and interdependencies, data exchanges and complex, nonlinear relationships.
    24. 24. The urban growth model should serve as the driver for the other models</li></li></ul><li>Infrastructure Systems Models<br />
    25. 25. Infrastructure Systems Models<br />
    26. 26. Modeling a System of Systems<br />Natural Environment Systems<br />AIR | WATER | HABITAT | LAND | MINERAL RESOURCES <br />Facility Aging<br />Natural Hazards<br />Demographic <br />Changes<br />Technological<br />Hazards<br />Fiscal Constraints<br />Climate Change<br />Social and Economic Systems<br />INCOME | HEALTH | EQUITY | ETHICS | SOCIAL STRUCTURE | POLICY<br />
    27. 27. Urban Growth Model<br />Urban growth model for the 13-county Atlanta metro area (current population ~ 5 million)<br />Vector GIS-based model that allocates future land use to small areas <br />Allocates exogenously-determined housing and employment totals based on the suitability<br />
    28. 28. Uniform Analysis Zones<br />Intersecting all Land Suitability Layers produces UAZs<br />UAZ is the largest polygon that has a constant set of suitability factors<br />
    29. 29. Uniform Analysis Zones<br />
    30. 30. Uniform Analysis Zones<br />
    31. 31. Uniform Analysis Zones<br />
    32. 32. Allocation Scheme<br /><ul><li>Importance factor X suitability produces a weighted suitability score for each UAZ
    33. 33. Housing and Employment are allocated to UAZs in order of their suitability</li></li></ul><li>Development Suitability Factors<br />Highway<br />Proximity<br />Sewer<br />Service<br />Freeway Exit <br />Proximity<br />Employment <br />Centers<br />Floodplain<br />Park Land<br />
    34. 34. Business as Usual Scenario<br />Employees /Acre<br />2004<br />2010<br />2004<br />2010<br />Land Use<br />2015<br />2020<br />2025<br />2030<br />2020<br />2015<br />2025<br />2030<br />
    35. 35. Compact Growth Scenario<br />Employees /Acre<br />2004<br />Land Use<br />Steve French<br />2010<br />2030<br />2020<br />2025<br />2015<br />2004<br />2010<br />2015<br />2020<br />2025<br />2030<br />
    36. 36. Ongoing Model Development<br />Testing additional suitability rankings<br />Calibrating to past growth and with other forecasts<br />Including more detailed land use types<br />Integrating with water and electricity models<br />
    37. 37. System Interactions<br />Not only do the infrastructure models interact with<br />urban growth, but they must interact with each other.<br />Water<br />Supply<br />Electric<br />Power<br />Urban Growth<br />
    38. 38. Model Inputs and Outputs<br />Urban Growth Model<br />Inputs<br />Economic Demand<br />Transport Access<br />Environmental<br /> Constraints<br />Outputs<br />Land Use<br />Open Space<br />Population <br />Employment<br /> by Location<br />
    39. 39. Model Inputs and Outputs<br />Water Supply Model<br />Inputs<br />Surface/Ground<br /> Quantity & Quality<br />Pumping<br />Treatment and<br />Distribution<br /> Technologies<br />Outputs<br />Quantity <br /> by Location<br />
    40. 40. Model Inputs and Outputs<br />Electric Power Model<br />Inputs<br />Generation<br />Transmission<br />Distribution<br /> Technologies<br />Outputs<br />Power<br /> by Location<br />
    41. 41. Model Inputs and Outputs<br />Water Supply Model<br />Electric Power Model<br />Inputs<br />Demand<br />Surface/Ground<br /> Quantity & Quality<br />Pumping<br />Treatment<br />Distribution<br /> Technologies<br />Outputs<br /> Water <br /> by Location<br />Inputs<br />Demand<br />Fuel<br />Water<br />Generation<br />Transmission<br />Distribution<br /> Technologies<br />Outputs<br />Power<br /> by Location<br />Urban Growth Model<br />Inputs<br />Economic Demand<br />Transport Access<br />Land Price<br />Environmental<br /> Constraints<br />Outputs<br />Land Use<br />Open Space<br />Population <br />Employment<br /> by Location<br />38<br />
    42. 42. Conclusions<br />An integrated model of infrastructure systems can be a powerful tool to explore and develop more sustainable urban areas.<br />The infrastructure models should be driven by an urban growth model.<br />An integrated analysis tool should consist of a loosely coupled set of domain specific models linked by well defined input and output requirements.<br />This understanding is a necessary, but not sufficient basis for more informed decision making and policy choices. <br />
    43. 43. Remaining Challenges<br />Understanding and modeling complexity and interactions among infrastructure systems<br />Building models that are useful and meaningful to decision-makers<br />Resolving differences in geographic resolution and temporal scale among different models<br />
    44. 44. Questions?<br />
    45. 45. High Level Architecture<br />The High Level Architecture is an example of an approach for realizing distributed simulations<br />HLA Rules define general principles that pervade the entire architecture<br />HLA Interface Specification defines a set of run-time services to support distributed simulations<br />Data distribution is based on a publication / subscription mechanism<br />
    46. 46. High Level Architecture (HLA)<br /><ul><li>based on a composable “system of systems” approach
    47. 47. no single simulation can satisfy all user needs
    48. 48. support interoperability and reuse among DoD simulations
    49. 49. federations of simulations (federates)
    50. 50. pure software simulations
    51. 51. human-in-the-loop simulations (virtual simulators)
    52. 52. live components (e.g., instrumented weapon systems)</li></ul>The HLA consists of<br /><ul><li>Rules thatsimulations (federates) must follow to achieve proper interaction during a federation execution
    53. 53. Object Model Template (OMT) defines the format for specifying the set of common objects used by a federation (federation object model), their attributes, and relationships among them
    54. 54. Interface Specification (IFSpec) provides interface to the Run-Time Infrastructure (RTI), that ties together federates during model execution</li></li></ul><li>An HLA Federation<br />Passive<br />Data<br />Viewers<br />Simulations<br />Interfaces<br />to Live<br />Components<br />Federates<br />Interface Specification<br />Run-Time Infrastructure (RTI)<br />
    55. 55. Process for Creating a Federation<br />Integrate<br />Execute<br />Develop<br />Define<br />Design<br />Develop<br />And<br />Federation<br />Federation<br />Federation<br />Federation<br />Federation<br />Test<br />And Analyze<br />Conceptual<br />Objectives<br />Federation<br />Results<br />Model<br />Execute<br />Plan<br />Identify<br />Develop<br />Select<br />Develop<br />Federation<br />Execution<br />Needs<br />Scenario<br />Federates<br />FOM<br />Process<br />Integrate<br />Develop<br />Perform<br />Allocate<br />Establish<br />Output<br />Federation<br />Objectives<br />Conceptual<br />Functionality<br />Federation<br />Analysis<br />Agreements<br />Prepare<br />Test<br />Prepare<br />Results<br />Federation<br />Plan<br />Develop<br />Implement<br />Federation<br />Federation<br />Requirements<br />Modifications<br />
    56. 56. Existing Models<br />Urban Growth – UrbanSim, PECAS, What-If?<br />Transportation – TRANSIMS, TranPlan, CUBE<br />Water/Stormwater – SWWM, BASINS, HEC-RAS, WASP<br />Energy – NEMS, MARKAL<br />Air Quality – CMAQ, CALINE3, UAM-V<br />
    57. 57. Metamodel Steps<br />Predict the demand and location for urban infrastructure for development and redevelopment, including the resulting economic flows and socioeconomic drivers based on emergent properties <br />Determine the infrastructure system options (e.g., community design, net zero buildings, construction methods, material choices) available to meet this demand and (re)design the virtual city<br />Choose a transportation options (e.g., walking, biking, automobiles, public transportation, automobiles) and simulate traffic flows and travel times using micro-simulation models (e.g., TranSims)<br />Determine the materials and energy needed to construct and maintain the urban infrastructure <br />Assess the infrastructure’s vulnerability to natural hazards (e.g., floods, earthquakes, hurricanes) and manmade challenges (e.g., resource constraints or supply chain disruptions)<br />Determine the local, regional, and global impacts (e.g., carbon footprint) of various scenarios using life cycle impact assessment<br />Predict heat island effects using microclimate models and determine increases to water and energy demands<br />Visualize various sustainability and resiliency metrics (e.g., carbon footprint; water, material, and energy demands; and social and economic impacts) <br />