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2011 ISCRAM Summer School Tom De Groeve
 

2011 ISCRAM Summer School Tom De Groeve

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Presentation used for the lecture at the 4th ISCRAM Summer School in Tilburg, the Netherlands.

Presentation used for the lecture at the 4th ISCRAM Summer School in Tilburg, the Netherlands.

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    2011 ISCRAM Summer School Tom De Groeve 2011 ISCRAM Summer School Tom De Groeve Presentation Transcript

    • Developing disaster alert and impact systemsLecture at the ISCRAM Summer School19 August 2011
      Tom De Groeve
      Joint Research Centre of the European Commission
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
    • Red earthquake alert
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
    • ISCRAM Summer School 2011
    • ISCRAM Summer School 2011
    • ISCRAM Summer School 2011
    • Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System (GDACS)
      GDACS: system for international disaster response community
      Information gap in the initial response phase
      Monitoring
      Impact / risk analysis
      Information integration
      15000 active users of 212 countries
      Secretariat: OCHA
      Open access, standards
      OGC, RSS
      GLIDE number
      JRC’s role: alert and monitoring system
      Earthquakes and tsunamis
      13 scientific partners
      Tsunami modelling
      Impact modelling
      Tropical cyclones
      2 scientific partners
      Wind modelling
      Impact modelling
      Floods
      16 scientific partners
      Detection
      Impact modelling
      Extra-tropical windstorms
      Volcanoes
      Expert meeting on Early Warning Systems, 28 April 2011
    • Japan tsunami
      20 minutes: Orange tsunami alert (2.1m waves, M7.9)
      42 minutes: Red tsunami alert (8.6m waves, M8.8)
      Alerts sent to 15000 users
      Only global system sending alerts based on tsunami wave heights
      Later, JRC released several manual reports on the risk in Japan and the Pacific
      Expert meeting on Early Warning Systems, 28 April 2011
    • ISCRAM Summer School 2011
    • ISCRAM Summer School 2011
    • ISCRAM Summer School 2011
    • Lecture overview
      Developing disaster alert and impact systems
      Introduction
      Humanitarian assistance, response and GDACS
      Natural hazards
      Basic physics
      Consequence analysis
      GIS data and models
      Community Remote Sensing
      Use of Social media
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
    • Joint Research Centre of the European Commission
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
      RELEX
      ECHO
      ENV
      JRC
      ...
      7 Institutes
      IRMM – Geel, Belgium
      - Institute for Reference Materials and Measurements
      IE – Petten, The Netherlands
      - Institute for Energy
      ITU – Karlsruhe, Germany
      - Institute for Transuranium elements
      IPSC - IHCP - IES – Ispra, Italy
      - Institute for the Protection and the Security of the Citizen
      - Institute for Health and Consumer Protection
      - Institute for Environment and Sustainability
      IPTS – Seville, Spain
      • Institute for Prospective Technological Studies
    • Global Security and Crisis Management
      Global Security and Crisis Management Unit
      Preparedness
      Response
      Recovery
      Prevention and risk reduction
      Technology
      Text mining (open source intelligence)
      Image mining (remote sensing)
      Data mining (statistics)
      Physical / epidemic modelling
      System integration (GIS, ICT)
      Humanitarian & Disaster Response Technologies, Cape Town, 17 Sept 2010
      Response
      Recovery
      Prevention Risk reduction
      Preparedness
    • International Emergency Management
      Partner organisations
      European Union
      United Nations
      World Bank
      African Union
      Social Networking Technologies for Emergency Management, October 27, 2010, Washington
      International Humanitarian and Emergency Response
    • Global Disaster Alert and Coordination Systemfor more effective and efficient humanitarian responsewww. .org
      an example of a disaster alert and impact system for international humanitarian assistance
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
    • International humanitarian aid
      A complex system with many stakeholders
      No “Command and Control Centre”
      Help is based on scarce information on the disaster
      What, when, how, who?
      Decisions must be made very quickly (within 72h)
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
      Coordination: UN OCHA
      Humanitarian Aid Flow
      Donors
      ECHO, etc.
      Charity
      UN
      WFP,HCR…
      Int. NGOs
      IFRC, MsF
      Local
      Government
      Local
      NGOs
      Victims
    • ISCRAM Summer School 2011
      Evacuation
      Search and rescue
    • ISCRAM Summer School 2011
      Refugee management
      Refugee camp, Lukole, Tanzania
    • Inefficiencies in humanitarian response
      Monitoring disasters
      24/7 monitoring capacity is expensive
      Many heterogeneous sources of natural hazard monitoring  hard to keep up to date
      Response can be delayed because
      Not alerted / monitored
      Affected government does not appeal
      Not sure if others respond
      Size and type of response must be needs driven (Madrid Declaration 1995)
      Size of disaster can be under/overestimated
      Information on needs can be incomplete, vague, lacking
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
      Is it a disaster??
      How many people??
      What are the needs??
      Who will respond??
      What is offered??
      What is needed now??
      What is the damage??
      time
    • Needs-driven response: what are the needs?
      OCHA Cluster approach*
      Camp Coordination and Camp Management
      Logistics
      Early Recovery
      Emergency Telecommunications
      Emergency Shelter
      Health
      Nutrition
      Protection
      Water, Sanitation and Hygiene
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
      Information needs for responders
      Relief needs for affected population
      (with information need, e.g.
      affected population)
      * OCHA, 2006. Appeal for improving Humanitarian Response Capacity: Cluster 2006
    • Sources of situational information
      Early warning and alert systems
      Timely knowledge about the occurrence of a natural hazard
      Geophysical, meteorological measurement systems
      Automated consequence analysis
      Modelling the likely impact
      Social media
      Timely source, not always reliable
      Very hard to turn into useful information
      International media
      Rich source, very timely
      but not always true and complete
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
    • Sources of situational information
      Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UN-OCHA):
      Mandate to coordinate humanitarian response
      Sends disaster assessment and coordination (UNDAC) teams, search and rescue teams (through the INSARAG network)
      Sets up an On Site Operations Coordination Centre (OSOCC), humanitarian information centres (HIC)
      Disseminates all information through ReliefWeb
      Local government, with its local emergency management authority (LEMA):
      Main source for official information on the scale of the disaster
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
    • Sources of situational information
      Alert systems
      CAT
      Social Media
      Media
      UN-OCHA
      LEMA
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
      Reliability
      Timeliness
    • Information needs versus sources
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
      Early warning or alert
      Automated consequence analysis
      Media
      OCHA
      LEMA
      Situation
      Source contains information for need
      X
    • Information needs versus sources
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
      Need clusters
      Source contains information for need
      X
    • Role of information systems
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
      Early warning or alert systems
      Automated consequence analysis
      GIS based analysis, real-time or based on scenarios
      Media
      Automated intelligent monitoring
      OSOCC / LEMA
      Web based “Virtual” OSOCC
      Web Portal technology
      Addressed (partially) by GDACS
    • Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System a EU and UN initiative
      European Union
      Humanitarian aid 2004
      Member states: € 867 million
      European Commission € 570m
      53% of official dev. Aid (ODA)
      Joint Research Centre
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
      United Nations Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs
    • Sharing a global system for alerting and coordination?
      Global
      Disaster
      Alert
      Coordination
      System
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
      • International humanitarian aid community
      Is interested in disasters anywhere on Earth
      Intervenes if local authorities cannot cope
      Is not a homogeneous community: big players and small players
       not all have similar information gathering capacity
      Is not coordinated on all levels: funding, deployment, reporting…
      Does not collect information systematically
    • Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System
      GDACS provides a systematic approach for
      Predictable information of
      Predictable quality at
      Predictable time
      Through
      A network of computer systems and
      Internet technology; Computer modeling
      Mainly task of JRC
      A network of disaster managers
      24/7 duty; connected to authorities
      Mainly task of OCHA
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
      Alert
      Model results
      Media
      analysis
      Field Missions (Search & Rescue)
      Remote Sensing damage analysis
      time
    • Objective: “What are the latest disasters?”
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
    • Objective: “Is an event of humanitarian concern?”
      The objective is to distinguish between
      large earthquake in unpopulated or resilient regions
      smaller earthquake in highly populated and vulnerable regions
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
      M 6.7
      M 6.0
    • GDACS automatic and manual event analysis
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
      Automatic information collection
      Alert
      Coordination
      Tsunami
      Warning
      Networks
      Disaster
      Level II Alert
      Disaster
      Level I Alert
      Earthquake
      Observation
      Networks
      Automatic Evaluation of scale of disaster
      Manual Evaluation of scale of disaster
      Start of coordi-nation
      Flood
      Watch
      Networks
      Event Alerts
      Trop. Cyclone
      Observation
      Networks
      Geographical,
      Socio-economic, population data
      Eye witness and Field information
      Gov, IFRC, ECHO, NGO
    • Disaster alert: systematic impact analysis
      Event magnitude and affected area
      Collected from specialized sources through Internet technology
      Modelled if required
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
      • People and vulnerability
      • Critical infrastructure
      Nuclear plants
      near New Orleans
    • Disaster alert
      Automatic monitoring:
      Earthquake, Tsunami, Cyclone, Floods, Volcanoes
      Automatic
      GIS consequence analysis
      Classification: 
      Alerting system
      SMS, Fax, Email
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
    • Critical infrastructure: e.g. tropical cyclones
      Bottleneck: global databases
      Now: Roads, airports, ports, nuclear plants, hydrodams
      Near future: industrial plants (to some extent)
      Collaboration with Joint UNEP/OCHA team on environmental risk
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
    • Consequence analysis: e.g. earthquakes
      Where?
      Circle of 100km
      Affected people?
      Sum up pixel values inside affected area
      Weight with indicators for vulnerability and resilience
      Damage? Secondary effects?
      List “critical infrastructure” in affected area
      Fast alerting is very important for earthquakes
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
    • Consequence analysis: e.g. tsunamis
      When?
      Together with earthquakes
      Tsunami propagation model
      Where?
      Coastal areas, low elevation, cities near coast
      Affected people?
      Sum up pixel values inside affected area: timing
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
    • GDACS: timeline
      Near real-time
      Event scraping: delay of ~20 min
      Consequence analysis: max 5 min
      Alerting (email, fax, SMS): 1500 SMS / 3 min
      Web site: maps, analysis, Google Earth
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
      Started upon event and ongoing
      Model runs (e.g. tsunami wave height model)
      Media monitoring
      Map creation / collection
      Situation and field information sharing
      Virtual OSOCC portal
      Virtual OSOCC
      Alert & CA
      Information scraping
      1h
      1day
      1week
    • GDACS Media monitoringEuropean Media Monitor
      Automatic collection of news from over 1000 on-line media sources
      Fully Multilingual: باكستان تعلن وقفا أحاديا لإطلاق النار في كشمير
      Query interface:
      “Show me news with the words ‘earthquake’ and ‘Iran’ from after the earthquake date”
      GDACS, for each disaster
      automatically creates a query
      keeps this updated for 3 weeks
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
    • GDACS disaster mappingUNOSAT and JRC
      Maps from many organisations are catalogued automatically
      GDACS users can request a new map (UNOSAT service)
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
    • GDACS Virtual OSOCCCoordination and information sharing
      Chat room: “what’s happening?”, “who’s going?”
      Structured information
      Teams
      Team status (monitoring, deployed, mobilising…)
      UNDAC reports
      Relief items (in kind, pledges)
      Content moderation
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
      Started around 2000 and is now part of GDACS
      ~12000 professional users
      Closed site with registration
      Trusted information
      Trust in members
      Routinely used by many LEMA’s and Donor countries
      GDACS antenna offices in Tunesia, Fiji…
    • ISCRAM Summer School 2011
    • ISCRAM Summer School 2011
    • Evaluation of GDACS
      Overall
      More effective or efficient process?
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
      Outcomes
      Usage statistics
      Number of partnerships
      Components
      Alert component: rate of missed and false alerts
    • Usage
      Around 15000 users
      Mostly from
      international aid organisations
      Donors / governments
      OCHA
      INGOs
      Red Cross / Red Crescent
      NGO’s
      Some from
      Local emergency management agencies / citizens
      Media
      Insurance & commercial companies
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
      Travel,
      general
      interest
      commercial
    • Usage
      Users by geographical area
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
      Middle East
      Oceania
      Latin America
      1%
      3%
      2%
      United Nations
      European
      North America
      10%
      Parliament
      10%
      Africa
      0%
      1%
      Asia
      13%
      5%
      Other
      37%
      Unknown
      7%
      European
      Europe
      Commission
      32%
      16%
    • Alert component
      Missed events
      Missed aid $
      EQ: 0.02%
      TC: 50%
      VO: 0%
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
    • Partnerships
      Early warning and alert
      USGS, EMSC, WAPMERR, GEOFON…
      Hawaii University, Pacific Disaster Centre
      Dartmouth Flood Observatory
      WFP (HEWSWeb)
      PTWC
      Global Volcanism Program
      SWVRC/IntlVRC
      IFA/SOLAR
      Tropical Storm Risk
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
      Alert communication
      UMTS (Norway)
      Information
      Maps: JRC, UNOSAT
      Joint UNEP/OCHA PPER: environmental impact reports
      USGS Shakemaps
      And many for the Virtual OSOCC…
    • Conclusions
      For needs-based response, situational and other information is critical, in particular in the first 72h
      Various information systems can address large parts of the information needs in the early onset of a disaster
      GDACS was a UN/EU initiative to build such a system and is running successfully
      Standards based
      Community based (professionals, including LEMAs)
      http://www.gdacs.org
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
    • Introduction to Natural hazards and disasters
      Earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanoes, tropical cyclones, floods
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
    • Existing hazardmonitoring systems
      Expert meeting on Early Warning Systems, 28 April 2011
    • JRC’s role in GDACS Bridging gaps
      Expert meeting on Early Warning Systems, 28 April 2011
    • Natural disasters cannot be avoided
      Over 800 disasters affect near 300 million people yearly and kill hundreds of thousands
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
      Source: EM-DAT Emergency Disasters Data Base, www.em-dat.net
    • More people are affected by disasters each year
      But they are not distributed equally
      Poor countries are affected more
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
      Source: EM-DAT Emergency Disasters Data Base, www.em-dat.net
    • Earthquakes
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
    • Earthquake mechanism
      Plate tectonics
      Relative motion of plates
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
      Terminology
      Hypocentre and epicentre (on surface)
      Magnitude: logarithmic measure of energy
      Intensity: energy on surface at given distance from epicentre
    • Earthquake mechanism
      Energy propagates
      P and S waves
      Attenuation functions
      Depends on local geology
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
      Energy shakes buildings
      Earthquake engineering
      Vulnerability curves
    • Earthquake occurrence
      Earthquakes, each year
      500 000 detectable
      100 000 can be felt
      100 cause damage
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
    • Earthquake effects
      Shaking and ground rupture
      damage to buildings or other rigid structures.
      Site or local amplification (Mexico City effect):
      transfer of the seismic motion from hard deep soils to soft superficial soils
      Landslides and avalanches
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
      Soil liquefaction
      water-saturated granular material temporally loses their strength and transforms from a solid to a liquid
      buildings or bridges tilt or sink into the liquefied deposits
      Tsunamis
      Fires
      break of the electrical power or gas lines
    • Earthquake data
      Occurrence
      Near real time (<15 min)
      Location and magnitude, with uncertainty
      USGS NEIC (US)
      EMSC (Europe)
      GEOFON (Germany)
      JMA (Japan)

      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
      Propagation
      Shakemaps (USGS)
      ESRC (Russia)
      Missing datasets
      Building stock
      Location, number, type of buildings
      Localized attenuation functions
    • Tropical cyclones
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
    • Tropical cyclone mechanism
      Mechanism
      energy released by the condensation of moisture in rising air causes a positive feedback loop over warm ocean waters
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
      Movement
      Steering winds; Coriolis effect
      Horizontal wind speed profile
    • Tropical cyclone occurrence
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
      1985-2005
    • Tropical cyclone effects
      High winds
      people, mobile homes, unsound substandard structures
      Storm surge
      Abnormal rise in the water level caused by the wind and pressure forces
      90% of death
      Heavy rain
      Thunderstorm activity  intense rainfall
      Rivers and streams flood, roads become blocked, and landslides can occur
      Tornado activity
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
    • Tropical cyclone data
      World Meteorological Organisation
      Regional Specialized Meteorological Centres
      Official advisories
      severe.worldweather.org/rsmcs.html
      Compilations at global level
      Pacific Disaster Center (Hawaii)
      MetHaz of the University of Central Florida (based on commercial data product)
      Tropical Storm Risk (http://tropicalstormrisk.com)
      forecasting the risk
      modelled wind fields and rainfall.
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
      Modelling data
      Wind field equation
      location
      central pressure  lacking
      Storm surge
      Detailed coastal DEM  lacking
      Rainfall
      Available from radar observations (e.g. TRMM)
    • Volcanic eruptions
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
    • Volcanic eruptions: mechanism
      A volcano is an opening in the Earth's surface
      12: lava flow
      15: ash cloud
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
      Plate tectonics
    • Types of volcanoes
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
    • Volcanic eruptions: occurrence
      How many active volcanoes known?
      Erupting now: perhaps 20
      Each year: 50-70
      Each decade: about 160
      Historical eruptions: about 550
      Known Holocene eruptions (last 10,000 years): about 1300
      Known (and possible) Holocene eruptions: about 1500
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
    • Volcanic eruptions: effects
      The different types of ("primary") eruptive events are:
      Pyroclastic explosions
      Hot ash releases
      Lava flows
      Gas emissions
      Glowing avalanches (gas and ash releases)
      Secondary events are
      Melting ice, snow and rain accompanying eruptions are likely to provoke floods and hot mudflows (or lahars);
      Hot ash releases can start fires.
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
      Factors of Vulnerability
      Topographic factors;
      The proximity of a population to the volcano;
      Structures with roof not resistant to ashes accumulations;
      The lack of warning system and evacuation plans
    • Volcanic eruptions: data
      Global Volcanism Program
      Smithsonian Institute
      Weekly bulletins
      Local volcano observatories
      Volcano Ash Advisories (VAAC)
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
      Modelling
      Local data needed
      Volcano types
      Eruption types:
      http://volcano.und.edu/vwdocs/vwlessons/kinds/kinds.html
    • Tsunamis
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
    • Tsunamis mechanism
      Tsunamis are giant sea waves that are produced by submarine earthquake or slope collapse into the seabed.
      Tsunamis can travel thousands of kilometers at 500-800km/h with very little loss of energy.
      Successive crests can arrive at intervals of every 10 to 45 minutes and wreak destruction for several hours.
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
    • Tsunami mechanism
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
      Uplift of continental crust
      Length of rupture: increases with higher magnitude
      Initial height: proportional to length of rupture
      Shallow water
    • Tsunami wave propagation (SWAN code)
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
      Swan code by C. Mader used as basis
      Mass conservation equation
      Momentum conservation equations
      Unknowns are H, Ux, Uy
      The programme solves the equations in explicit form with a fixed time step, which depends on the size assumed for the bathymetry
    • Tsunami occurrence and effect
      Continental coasts
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
      Shallow water
      Slows down wave
      Amplifies wave height
      http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/seg/hazard/tsu.shtml
    • Tsunami data
      Real time
      UNESCO/IOC
      Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC, US)
      JMA (Japan)
      Relies on seismological data
      Historical
      National Geophysical Data Center, NOAA, US
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
      Modelling
      Bathymetry
      Rough: ok
      Detailed: not
      Run up: DEM needed
    • Floods
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
    • Flood mechanism
      Principle
      Hydrology / hydraulics
      Modelling is data intensive
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
    • Flood mechanism
      Types
      Flash floods
      River floods (mostly seasonal)
      Coastal floods, associated with tropical cyclones, tsunami, storm surges
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
    • Flood occurrence
      Floods cause major human suffering
      78% of population affected by disasters
      46% of disasters are floods
      International aid for floods
      1/3 of all humanitarian aid
      93% of flood deaths in Asia
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
      Figures from EM-DAT, OCHA, ECHO
    • Flood effects
      Direct effects:
      Drowning
      Injuries during evacuation
      Indirect effects:
      Agriculture: loss of crops
      Destruction of transport and energy infrastructure
      Contamination by toxic chemicals
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
      Factors of Vulnerabilities
      Location of settlements on floodplains
      Non resistant buildings and foundations
      Lack of warning system and awareness of flooding hazard
      Land with little capacity of absorbing rain
      erosion due to deforestation
      concrete covering
    • Flood data
      Real time
      Hydrographs
      Met Offices
      Media
      Dartmouth Flood Observatory
      Satellite based…
      Historical
      Dartmouth Flood Observatory
      Disaster databases
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
      Modelling
      Detailed DEM
      Real time weather data
    • Conclusions
      Mechanisms of natural hazards are well known
      Occurrence of natural hazards
      Geographical patterns
      Random occurrence
      Data on natural hazards
      Some data about occurrence and location of disaster is available in near-real time
      Not all data needed for modelling hazard is available
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
      Effects of natural hazards on society depend on
      Hazard
      Affected area
      Vulnerabilities
      Consequence analysis must take these into account
      Limited by global data availability
    • Consequence analysis
      Near real time GIS for disaster management
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
    • GIS
      GIS = Geographic information system (or science)
      Mapping
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
    • GIS
      Handling, storing geospatial data
      Coordinate in 2D or 3D space
       special database techniques
      Spatial Reference System  projection
      Imagery  large volumes of data
      Most (>80%) data has geospatial component
      Manipulating, querying geospatial data
      Nearby point, line, polygon
      “In” area, “intersecting” with line
      Raster statistics  sum of population in pixels
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
    • GIS systems: network enabled
      Web mapping
      Web querying
      Web processing
      Routing
      Nearest objects
      GIS Model
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
      My system
    • GIS for disaster management
      Disaster management
      Typical questions in early onset
      Where? What is affected? Who is affected? How many people?
      How do we get there? What response capacity is nearby?
      Get me a map. Get me a BIG map!
      I need information for my briefing: SMALL maps!
      Detailed geospatial information is required
      Street level base data in Europe; less for Global
      Application specific data: transport, energy, health, vulnerability
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
      Generating stations
      Substations
      Power lines
    • Global datasets
      Population
      Raster, 1km
      Digital Elevation
      Raster, 90m
      Bathymetry
      Raster, 2 arcmin (~3.6km)
      Topography
      Vector, 1km
      VMAP0, Global Discovery…
      Roads, railways, rivers, populated places, airports, mountains…
      Land cover, land use
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
      Satellite coverage
      Meteorological
      Clouds
      Rainfall, winds…
      Not available
      Hospitals, medical infrastructure
      Energy infrastructure, industrial plants
      Critical roads, bridges
      Detailed DEM (for flood, tsunami modelling)
      Building stock, urban areas
    • Why automating tasks?
      Disasters happen always at night, in the weekend or on Christmas
      It is always the same work
      In early stages all crises have similar requirements
      Computers can pre-calculate things or make things according to a template
      And they work faster than humans
      Automated things have limitations
      Cannot handle unforeseen cases
      Can break down over the weekend
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
    • Earthquakes
      Where?
      Circle where ground motion longer than 1 second
      Circles with varying radius
      Affected people?
      Sum up pixel values inside affected area
      Weight with indicators for vulnerability and resilience
      Damage? Secondary effects?
      List “critical infrastructure” in affected area
      Fast alerting is very important for earthquakes
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
    • Tsunamis
      When?
      Together with earthquakes
      Tsunami propagation model
      Tsunami wave height model
      Where?
      Coastal areas, low elevation
      Affected people?
      Sum up pixel values inside affected area, with timing
      Damage? Secondary effects?
      List “critical infrastructure” in affected area
      Animation
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
    • Tsunamis
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
      Play
    • Tsunamis
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
      Seismic event
      Event notification
      EWS detection
      1’
      Quick analysis and reports (propagation time)
      Max 30’
      First analysis (height and population affected)
      Max 1h
      More detailed analysis (run-up calculations) are not of our interest at the moment
      0
      +30
      Time (min)
    • Tropical cyclones
      Where?
      Track, including forecast
      Buffers for Saffir-Simpson categories (wind speed)
      Affected people?
      Sum up pixel values inside affected area: past, future
      Damage? Secondary effects?
      List “critical infrastructure” in affected area
      Early warning is possible
      Animation
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
    • Tropical cyclones
      Impact
      List critical infrastructure
      Population
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
      Risk (probabilities)
    • Volcanoes
      When?
      Significant change in eruption status
      Where? Affected people?
      Can be pre-calculated
      Real time ash cloud information
      Damage? Secondary effects?
      List “critical infrastructure” in affected area
      Future
      Imagery…
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
    • Volcanoes
      Ash plumes
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
    • Conclusions
      GIS can store and manipulate information useful for disaster management
      GIS is a good basis to implement models to calculate or infer information for disaster management
      Standards are essential for distributed systems
      OGC, GLIDE, CAP, RSS
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
      Real time models depend on
      Real time input data
      Accuracy, timeliness
      Available background data
      Precision, Fit-for-use
      Processing time
      Distributed systems
      Operational systems
      Redundancy, resilience
    • System design
      Operational alerting systems
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
    • Automating GIS
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
      Web site
      Alerter
      Queuer
      Scraper
      Reporter
      Models
      DMA
      Input
      Output
      GIS Analysis
    • In reality more complex
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
      SMS
      Server
      Email
      Server
      Fax
      Server
      SMS
      Server
      Asgard
      Lite
      GDACS
      Tsunami
      SWAN
      Servers
      DMA: Spatial Data Infrastructure
      Monitor
      Develop
      ment
    • Alerting
      Technology
      SMS
      Individual messages (rate 10/sec)
      Cell broadcast
      Email
      Fax
      RSS, web
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
      Authority to Authority
      Reliable
      Training assumed; content can be difficult
      Authority to Population
      Reliable
      Culture bound
      Trust, authority, source
    • Operational system
      Reliable:
      stable servers, not for development
      Monitoring
      When is something down
      Action plan to recover
      Redundancy:
      copy of system and automatic switch
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
    • Developing disaster alert and impact systems
      Conclusions
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
    • Conclusions
      Disaster alert and impact systems are a combination of
      Hazard science
      Geophysics
      Meteorology
      Modelling
      GIS models
      Physical models
      Mathematical models
      GIS
      Spatial data infrastructure
      Data collection
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011
      Disaster management
      Requirements analysis
      Reporting
      Communication technology
      Alerting
      Web systems
      Operational systems
      Monitoring and recovery
      Maintenance
    • Some links
      http://www.gdacs.org
      GDACS website
      http://www.gdacs.org/flooddetection
      Global Flood Detection System
      http://dma.jrc.it/map
      Mapping tool
      ISCRAM Summer School 2011